As most readers on this site know, the Fremeau Efficiency Index is one of the best metrics for college football. Luckily, we have expanded FEI rankings for the last three seasons available.

Success for a football team requires many different factors, most of which have been documented on this website. Lately, the focus has been on an improvement of the defense. As Bud and others have pointed out, even if we have a giant leap forward in our defensive efficiency, the brutality of our schedule will likely hold us back.

What I wanted to do was look at the relationship between strength of schedule, offensive and defensive efficiencies, and field position. To do this, I looked at the historic FEI rankings available. Unfortunately, these FEI rankings are end of season rankings and are not the week 14 rankings that would only include the 12 regular season games. Since expanded week 14 rankings are not available, end of the season ones will have to suffice.

I ran a multiple regression to predict the season win totals using four dependent variables: SOS rank, offensive efficiency rank, defensive efficiency rank, and field position rank.

Here are the results of the regression analysis.

We end up with a pretty good R square value with an average error of around 1.5 games.

A couple of things to take away here.

1) The impact your offense and defense efficiencies are very similar, but in the end, the offense is the single largest contributor to your season wins total.

2) Strength of Schedule is very important, but not the end all be all for improving seasons win total. This is because strength of schedule is offset by a disproportional amount due to offense and defense efficiencies.

Florida State should win 7.66 games next season assuming a couple of things. If we assume our offense remains a top 10 offense, our field position regresses back to the three year average (rank 25), and our defense improves to the 50th percentile rank. Everyone who is predicting 9 and 10 win seasons are simply overestimating FSU’s defensive turnaround and underestimating the difficulty of this schedule.

But wait, there is one little caveat. This is against FBS competition. Florida State only plays 11 regular season FBS schools this upcoming season. The 7.66 win total does not include the game against Samford. If we assume that FSU wins this game 99.9% of the time,  FSU’s actual predicted wins becomes 8.65.The average number of FBS teams any team plays in a year in this data set is 11.94.

What do you think?

Christian Ponder had a great 2009 season until suffering a shoulder injury against Clemson. Looking at the stats on how Christian Ponder stacked up for the year, he finished 18th in the Country in passer efficiency. Something does not feel right about that rating. All educated seminole fans know that Christian Ponder is much better than the 18th ranked QB in the country.

Looking at the list of the top 25 quarterbacks, it becomes blatantly obvious that many of the top passers this year were passing against subpar defenses. This is how players like Nathan Enderle of Idaho finish the year with a passer rating of 155.75. This got me thinking about how to even the playing field in terms of comparing passer efficiencies.

Gathering the data for the game stats for the top 25 QBs in the country (and Greg McElroy and Jacory Harris) and comparing the passer rating for a QB in a game against the defensive FEI of the teams he faced, I constructed a regression test to see how a Quarterback would fare against a hypothetical number 1 defense.

The table below has the top 10 QBs in the country and a few other recognizable ones and their respective passer ratings against a hypothetical number 1 defense.

As you can see, Christian Ponder was phenomenal this year, exactly what Florida State fans have known all along. But based on these numbers, I would assume that Colt McCoy is not going to fare too well against Alabama, and many of the perceived top QB prospects in the country who are entering the NFL draft might not do so hot once they start throwing against the elite NFL defenses.

Note: This is not for all 120 Division I-A Quarterbacks, just the top 25 Quarterbacks by Passer Efficiency re-ranked by rating against a number 1 Defense FEI.

Since Jimbo Fisher was named Head Coach in Waiting I’ve heard nothing but grumblings from inside and outside the Florida State fan base. People who have only a passing interest in FSU football have been telling me that hiring Jimbo Fisher was a mistake. That the Head Coach in Waiting ordeal will never be copied because FSU has proven that it’s a failure. On and on I hear these types of remarks on a daily basis.

With the legendary tenure of Bobby Bowden coming to a close, I think it is time to set the record straight about Jimbo Fisher. I do not know if Jimbo will take FSU to the dizzying heights the program occupied during the 90s, what I do know is what Jimbo has done in the past and what he is currently doing at Florida State.

First, we need to look at Jimbo’s track record as a QB coach and Offensive Coordinator. Jimbo was Auburn’s QB coach under Terry Bowden until 1999 and had a brief stint at Cincinnati before being picked up by Nick Saban at LSU, where he was the QB Coach and Offensive Coordinator until 2006. Jimbo was able to accomplish several different things as QB coach and OC at Auburn and LSU.

While Jimbo has not been a head coach, he did turn down the opportunity to coach as the Offensive Coordinator under Nick Saban for the University of Alabama and the Head Coach position with the University of West Virginia. While Florida State did not get a Head Coach in Waiting with previous head coaching experience, it did pick up one of the hottest Offensive Coordinators in the country who was in very high demand.

• He Coached three players who were first round draft picks in 2006.
• He Coached the number one overall draft pick of 2006, JaMarcus Russell.
• He Coached five QBs that were first round draft picks while at LSU.
• He Coached the only 3,000-yard passing QB in Auburn History in Dameyune Craig.
• He Coached both of the 3,000-yard passing QBs in LSU History, JaMarcus Russell and Rohan Davey.
• He was the Offensive Coordinator of LSU when they won the 2003 National Championship.
• LSU had a 70-20 record and made seven bowl appearances with Jimbo heading the offense. This represented the most wins in LSU’s history over a seven-year period and the most consecutive bowl appearances in school history as well.
• And ultimately, LSU’s offenses under Fisher set 13 school records.

His resume coming into Florida State at the end of the 2006 season was impressive, to say the least. What FSU was able to do was lock in one of the top Offensive Coordinators in the Country to replace Jeff Bowden and right the stagnant Florida State Offensive.

Since his arrival at Florida State, the offense has really exploded in nearly every category. Any sensible Florida State fan should see the product being put on the field and realize that having Jimbo Fisher as Offensive Coordinator, and now Head Coach, is not a hindrance but a boon.

Florida State’s Total Offensive output is second only to Georgia Tech in the ACC, second in the ACC for passing offense, third in the conference for rushing yards per attempt, second in the conference for touchdown percentage in the red zone, third in the conference for 3rd down conversion percentage, Christian Ponder leads the league in passing yards per game, completion percentage, and total yards per game. Using the advanced statistics, Florida State’s offense is second in the ACC and seventh in the country in the Fremeau Efficency Index, third in the conference and 8th in the country in total offensive rating, second in the country in rushing offense rating, and 19th in the country in passing offensive rating in the S&P+ rankings.

Christian Ponder was on track to be yet another Florida State 3,000 yard passer had his season not been derailed by injury. If Christian Ponder had started instead of EJ Manuel and had the same stats as Manuel did in the final three games of the season, Ponder would have over 3,000 yards passing.

Jimbo Fisher is doing all of this with an offense that has three starting seniors on it.

via assets.sbnation.com

Boy does FSU need a pep talk badly.

Quick stats:

--FSU won more games in the 1990s than any other team. 88% of all the games that FSU played in the 90s were wins. No other team in any other decade had as good a win percentage.

--Even though FSU has lingered in mediocrity lately, FSU has still won 67% of its games since 2000, ranking FSU 19th for the decade in terms of win percentage. Florida is 10 spots ahead at 9th with 75%, and Miami is 11th with 74.1%.

--After the 2000 and 2001 seasons, when Florida had back to back 10 win seasons, they went 8-5, 8-5, 7-5, and 9-3 before winning a national championship in 2006.

--After the 2003 season when UM went 11-2(FSU went 10-3 and UF went 8-5), UM has gone 9-3, 9-3, 7-6, 5-7, and 7-6.

--All the "major" teams that we see on the national level have had bad stretches.

--Ohio State went 6-6 in 1999 after going 11-1 in 1998. In the next two seasons they went 8-4 and 7-5.

--In 2002, USC had their first 10 win season since 1988.

--In 2000, Oklahoma had their first 10 win season since 1987.

--In 2001, when LSU went 10-3, they were coming off of seasons of 8-4 in 2000, 3-8 in 1999, 4-7 in 1998, and 9-3 in 1997.

--In 2004, Auburn had their first 10 win season since 1997. Sandwiched between 1997 and 2004 was a combined season record of 41-32.

--Michigan, with three 10-win seasons in the 00's won just 3 games last year.

--Tennesee had a losing season in 2005 and 2008.

--Between 1993 and 2001, Nebraska went 102-12. Since they've gone 53-36 with two losing seasons.

--Penn State won 10 games in 1999 and in the next 5 seasons went 26-33 with four of the five seasons being losing seasons.

Florida State's fall from grace has been slow. That is the only real difference between FSU and the other major programs. But FSU is ranked 11th in terms of win percentages for college programs. Behind FSU is Georgia, LSU, Miami, Auburn, and Florida. In that order.

FSU will bounce back.

I've been reading this blog now for close to nine months and the wealth of information that is presented here is refreshing considering the usual rehashed opinions that you generally find on sports websites, and I've never really felt compelled to make a post, despite publishing a few articles on the Noles on bleacherreport.com.

One of the things that really strikes me as odd about the site is the current focus on the absolute present and the fact that there really is no big picture. I definitely want to know the opinions of the T-Nation writers concerning next season, but the overall depressing picture that is painted is, well, depressing, and something I find almost unacceptable.

There is such a wealth of information and depth that is paid to so many different aspects of college football here, it is easy to focus on the trees and forget about the forest. In the case of Florida State, it means that it's easy to focus on how great Florida is right now and how bad Florida State is going to be for the next few years.

Recently, ESPN wrote an article outlining the most prestigious programs in college football. Of the three major football programs in the state of Florida (FSU, UF, and UM), Florida State University was ranked highest at 9th, followed by UM at 10th, and UF at 15th.

Even though Florida State has not been competitive on the National Scale in a few years and UF has been super competitive, UF is still ranked below the most prestigious program in Florida, FSU. Based on the article, I think it is safe to say that the two historically most prestigious programs are FSU and UM.

The Gators are the last program at the table, mostly because of their recent successes. How quickly we forget that Florida is simply the flavor of the week compared to the serious history that goes along with FSU and UM.

I remember reading an analysis on this website about Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia. Historically Alabama and Georgia have had better programs than Auburn, but because of the regional nature of college football, Auburn's recent comeupance has really relied on the fact that Alabama and Georgia were having down years. Once Alabama and Georgia started playing football like they have in the past, Auburn was toast. Auburn is to Alabama and Georgia what Florida is to FSU and UM.

Once Florida's 15 minutes are up, which they will start to be once Tim Tebow is gone, the historical pecking order will be restored. The state of Florida's preeminent program will again be decided by FSU and UM, and Florida will have to sit on the sidelines as they always have.

Florida State's future looks very bright in the next five years, and I doubt this slight five to seven year down period for FSU and UF's up period will really affect the grand scheme of things. Afterall, Alabama's back on top.