• joined Apr 22, 2009
  • last login Apr 04, 2014
  • posts 15
  • comments 188

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  • MLB Pittsburgh Pirates
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User Blog

Competitive Balance Lottery Coming Up


It's unclear to me exactly when it occurs. claims it occurs on Monday, but Jonathan Mayo has tweeted that it's this Wednesday. By my reading, 6 of 13 teams will be eligible for six 1st round picks, and only those 7 remaining that didn't win will be eligible for six 2nd round picks. So it appears to me we have an excellent chance to get another pick (and the added bonus money for the pool).

FanGraphs on Randomness


There are some subtleties in the article I might take issue with, but overall I think it does well to highlight how many sabermetricians (including myself) have an understanding of randomness that differs from mainstream, and consequently why many are reluctant to accept some sabermetric principles. And no, sabermetricians (well good ones at least) don't just chalk everything up to randomness without looking for special-cause. It's just that sometimes there's nothing there to see, but many people hate to accept that.

Morneau Already Matched MVP Season


According to FanGraphs, Justin Morneau has already accrued 4.3 WAR in 2010. Aside from being ridiculously high at this point of the season, you might wonder why that is significant. Well when he won the MVP in 2006, Morneau put up the same WAR total (4.3) in 157 games. So in some sense he has already matched his MVP season in just 54 games.


UZR and +/- Discrepancies

FanGraphs recently started listing John Dewan's +/- fielding metric.  Many feel this metric is comparable to (or better than) UZR, so I thought it would be an interesting exercise to explore the...

FanGraphs Now Carries +/-


Although many consider UZR the best available defensive metric, many others thinks +/- is deserving of this title. Well it's now on FanGraphs so you can check it out for yourself. A quick note is that +/- is scaled to plays, not runs, so if you want a direct comparison to UZR I think you want to look at the derivation of +/- that is rPM.

wOBA in Wikipedia


Continuing with the them of more sabermetrics in Wikipedia, I created an entry for wOBA. It's just a stub for now, but hopefully we can build it into something decent. Feel free to edit the article, as that's what Wikipedia is all about.

BP Attacks OPS


OPS is much better than things like BA and RBI, but that doesn't mean we have to stop there. In a bind where you don't have access to better stats it does a decent job, but at least for MLB there are superior, freely available metrics out there like wOBA or BP's TAv (formerly EqA).

Greatest Defenders of All-Time...


...according to Total Zone. Rally did the hard part in calculating TZ, so I just had to do some accounting on his WAR database.


Historical WAR by Team

I recently downloaded Rally's Historical WAR database, so I thought I'd share some results I derived from it.  First I thought I would add the WAR for each player on each team to find WAR for each...

2010 CHONE Standings


He has the Pirates winning 73 games.

2010 Marcel Projections


Not surprisingly, McCutchen was projected to lead the team in wOBA at .363.

2010 CHONE Projections


Here are the hitters, I imagine the pitchers will be coming soon. At a glance I notice Iwamura is still included as a Ray. Not much to be excited about, but I guess that's to be expected.

2010 UZR Projections


You can't group by team currently, but a quick glance didn't reveal any particularly noteworthy Pirates. I did notice that Nyjer Morgan is projected to come down quite a bit from his super-human UZR performance in 2009.


2009 Pirate Pitching

For years pitchers have been evaluated based upon their win-loss record. More advanced mainstream metrics include ERA and WHIP. None of those tell the whole story about a pitcher though; win-loss...

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