SB Nation User Blog: mikedaviswhereareyou

Scott Boras is getting screwed

mikedaviswhereareyou — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 05:57:46 -0000

A bit off A's relations, but I have to say this. And trust me, it kills me to defend Scott Boras. But the Red Sox, if their current offer is really what they think is realistic, are screwing the man.

Scott Boras represents DM. Not the Seibu Lions.

The Red Sox are, according to reports, offering 7-8 million a year. Boras wants 14 to 15. Huge gulf. But seriously, DM is not a 7-8 million a year pitcher. In this market, if a free agent, he might get exactly what Boras is asking. In fact, I think he would. Would he be worth it? well, that is not relevant. Gary Mathews Jr. is not going to earn his paycheck for long either.

The Red Sox paid 51.1 million to negotiate with DM. Neither Scott Boras, nor DM recieved a penny. The Sox are turning to public opinion to whip Scott Boras over the total amount they will have to pay to sign DM. This is hardly BOras's fault. he did not force the Sox to offer that much money. He has a client, and it appears he is asking reasonable money for his services.

Now, I do salute the red sox. This is a serious market loophole they are exploiting. They got a player into a situation where he is no longer a free agent. He has one team with which to negotiate. take it or leave it. It is very much like the old system with a team owning a player's rights. The Red Six just happened to pay 51.1 million for them. But the player sees not a penny of that, and if he declines, he earns peanuts for another 2 years, exposes himself to injury and market correction. D*man right Boras will sign him. He has to.

Taking two years in Japan would decrease DM's eventual payday by around 15 million. If he plays 15 year of pro ball, that means that he would have to make over a million more a year to over come that loss. Throw in the time value of money, and we are talking about needing a payday in two years when he is a free agent, of maybe 25 million more than he would otherwise need to end up at the same place as he would if he signed for the 7-8 million the Red Sox are offering.

Its a facinating case in negotiating tactics. This time though, truly Scott Boras is at the disadvantage.

Off season trade

mikedaviswhereareyou — Wed, 16 Aug 2006 16:33:25 -0000

This is an idea I have been kicking around since last season. I know that most trade ideas surround players whose performances failed to met expectations, so most of the trade recommendations around here center around Jason Kendall, Bobby Keilty, Esteban Loiza, etc... Feeding this fire are salaries that not are justified by performance. But gains in the stock market are not made by selling low, they are made by reaosnable analysis of value, and recognizing overvalued commodities and selling them while their value is at its peak, and using the profit to purchase undervalued commodities.

We should trade Huston Street.

He is one of the young darlings of baseball. He suprised everyone last year by seizing the reigns of responsibilty and performing admirably. The baseball world has his name. He represented the country in the wold cup of baseball. He is seen as one of the rising stars.

His low era was not suported by his peripherals as being repeatable, though he looks to be solid in the future. A .200 BAA? That seems very low. A result, no doubt, of our defense and likley a little luck. I still contend that his strange delivery gives him an early advantage that will fade when batters get more used to it. He averages almost 3 walks per nine. That indicates a control problem that will catch up to him. Not that he will ever be, oh, billy Koch, but I see him settling in at a repeatable 3.2 era, which is low, but not irreplaceable.

He is a career closer. His workoad was high at UT, but not that of a starter. He has only thrown about 280 innings since he was 18. The ligaments in his shoulders, and the mucles in his arm are not built through inning after inning of long work. My guess is that too many high stress innings will erode his abilty to pitch effectively over time. Not that he will ever be bad, but I think he will likley tire a bit. Career starters who convert retain thier elite closer abilities longer than minor league releivers.

He is cheap, and could net us quite a return.

We have his replacement already. MoneyBall brought attention to Billy Beane's penchant for pitching the closer in the 8th inning, racking up saves for the second best reliever, driving up the market, and selling off that 9th innign reliever. Duke is our closer. He can pitch multiple innings. He can induce groundballs, and he can strike out batters. He is not affected by the pressure. He too is cheap. And sure, his back is a problem, but so was Keith Folke's and we offered him 32 million dollars to stay. If his back falls apart, we have Kiko Colero in place. I suspect Billy is already doing this. I have noticed that Huston plays a lot of games where it might be useful to rest him, when we have a 2-3 run lead. It seems we are aggresively racking up saves for the guy, even when proper usage patterns might incline a manager to sit him. Now, maybe Beane and Macha are really playing out LaRussas justification for the closer, and maybe they both have street in thier roto leaugues, but I wonder if someone is no driving up his off season price. If we were the Yankees, sure, hold on to him, and buy a great hitter also, but we are not, and we have to give to get.

In short, use this a point of discussion, but not only do I think it might be a good idea, I think that management is already considering it.

What do you think?

Least Popular A's Diary

mikedaviswhereareyou — Sat, 28 Jan 2006 04:22:24 -0000

I cannot imagine many poeple here are going to like this, but it needs to be said.

First of all, lets start with a weak substantiation of my credentials as an A's fan. First game was in 1979- A's/Red Sox. A's won in extra innings, I was not there becuase I was 4 and had fallen asleep. I am so greena nd gold that the other day I was in NYC and some guy found out I was from the bay and asked me if I thought Barry was using steroids. I told him I sincerley doubted it and was 5 minutes into the liklihood of a curveballing pitcher using performance enhancers before he started laughing. It never even occured to me that there might be another Barry in the bay. I wera my A's jerseys to fenway, and cheer loudly nad accept the beer that is dumped on me. In short, I love the A's, but its tough love, and frankly everone around here seems to have a rainbow up their collective *sses lately, so I thought that I would chime in to share my doubts, the same doubts that keep me up at night, and perhaps bring a little balance into the AN mix:

We are talented and young but there are some very real concerns with the team next year, some historical, some injuries, some we just needed to look beyond the press releases.

Pitching:

BZ- I love you man, this hurts me as much as it hurts you.

Barry is not really an ace any more. He is really very good, but he has declining strikeouts and since the league learned to lay off the curve, he has been effective, but hardly an ace. He is not getting better, but is likley not geting worse. this is not news..in fact, I think most people here accept these facts and have assumed we will likley get 220 innings, at a 3.75 clip from BZ. Of course, if I am B, I beg to pitch when frank sits. I mean, Bradley, Payton, and Kotsay for a fly ball pitcher? Thats sick.

Harden- not that worried. I dont care he is high torque and not 6 feet. The man is a tornado. How injured can a 26 year old stay. I have faith here.

Haren- again, he has been pitching now 3 years, and he has adjusted to the league who adjusted to him. I think he is solid #2 stuff. moving on...

JB- oh cupcake, here i get a little worried. The man/boy had a heck of a rookie year, and adjusted on the fly, but right now, while he is home knee deep in galic stix and red vines in Kentucky, there are data geeks all over the nation, in ball parks near you, cutting and pasting together his pitch sequences on their mac laptops. Several months from now, the best hitters on the planet are going to have a year of electronic data and video on JB, and they are going to catch that farm boy. They are going to be in his head, and know his release points, and his preferences. They probably will know his facial ticks when he throws heat. The fact is, the man is likley to stumble before he rises, and I expect that JB is going to look a little flat next year, likley in the 4.5-5.0 era range.

Loiza- The guy threw 220 innings last year. THis is a feat he has accomplished only one other time in his career. How did he get this rep as an innings eater? I think his agent has been sending the press notes. He has been consitently innefective except for 2003, the year it all came together- and what a beautiful year it was- and last year where he pitched in a national forrest of a park in a league where the hitters did not know him. Sure, proably he is better than Saarloos, but lets be sober here. The man owns a 4.6 career era. I mean, Pat Hentgen has a Cy young on his mantle. It happens- people have freaky good seasons. But me, I close my eyes, and I see John Halama with better hygine.

The Pen:

Huston: we all know what happens to japenese relief pitcher imports with kooky deliveries, they dominate for a year, and then the league sends them back to Japan. And Huston- you have one kooky delivery. So what, because he has an american passport he is not going to have that novelty smacked into the iceplant [Note: Al, if I ever find you alone, we are going to talk about that iceplant]. The man jumps off the rubber. Seriously, I love that he is on our side, but the guy violates the rule book like charels barkely used to when he drove to the basket. Huston is likley the real deal, but the real deal is not a 1.79 era. I conservatively hope he sees under 3.00 this year. I think the miracle of video is going to cause Mssr. Street a little discomfort next year as the league learns to time that drive to the plate. The guy is good, but he is young, and he is pitching from the batter's lap.

Kiko- Yo' Kiko. Sure, I believe. What the h*ll. Kiko has been doing this too long to be a freak. Kiko, I will buy. And his name is Kiko. Ask Baseball Prospectus- it is almost impossible to predict accurately the career trajectory of guys named Kiko.

Watasic. Jay sucked for a whole career. he had a nice year last year. Thats nice Jay. Good for you. Everyone deserves a nice season. But this is not going to last. Jay has been pitching for nearly a decade, and owns a carer 4.54 era, and a whip north of 1.5. As a reliever. I think this is about what we can expect next year.

Ron Flores. Frankly, never thought much of Rincon. I have an ulcer named Ricardo. Welcome Ron. Loved your interview. But seriously people, its good thing I am not a believer in the LOOGY. If I were, I would have to doubt that Greenie here is going to be a shut down lefty specialist in his first year in the bigs. Worse than Ricardo though? probably not, and frankly, personality goes a long way.

Saarloos. Probably very effective out of the pen. Still, there is that pesky fact that his arm is taped on. Just thought I would mention it.

Duke: he has been effective since he got here. I doubt he will be 2.21 era effective again, but that is just becuase that is too sick to keep up. Still, keep your eye on the bouncing bad back.

Joe Kennedy- sure he can repeat. I cannot imagine the league is up all night learning his preferences.

Does anyone know if Harrikala is even still on the team?

Ok, moving on...

Jason Kendall. Everyone points to the fact that he has a career .380 OBA as an indicator that he will bounce back. Sure, I can go with that too. But there is the fact the Jason Kendall had a father, Fred, who was a catcher who never really could hit, but what he could muster with the bat abandoned him entirely at 29. Oh, and Joe threw out 5 runners in his career. I hope Jason learned something, or got his mother's aging genes, but Jason worries me a little.

The Verge: Everyone seems content to light another insense stick in the BBeane alter and offer up oranges and myrr over the great deal that Beane worked out for Frank thomas, but folks, lets be realistic here. Frank signed for 500k. Something tells me that if his medical reports did not dry up new mother's milk he could have, and would have, received more. I could be wrong. I think the rest of the league two years ago spent a lot of the season watching Vlad poundd out home runs thinking "They signed him for WHAT?". Sometimes you gotta ask. I dont know what is in those reports, but I know that noone else in baseball even put in an offer. Maybe Frank just likes white shoes. He COULD play 100 games, but I am going to pencil him in for the playoffs and everything else is gravy.

Ellis. Love me some Mark. He is not .850 OPS good, but noone expects him to equal thes totals, so Mark seems to be well valued by AN.

Chavy- why is everyone h*ll bent on him being a leader? So he isnt a leader, who cares...what just becuase he is making the most money he needs to throw chairs? I dont care if Macha needs to call him a "silent leader", or if he carries JB's bag for him for validation, he can play a wicked third base, and he can mash. He is, however, borrowing Kirk's duct tape. This concerns me a lot. Its really hard to hit those outside pitches with one arm. Ask Pete Grey.

Crosby- noone can be unlucky for three seasons in a row. I am sure this year he will be fine. I dont know what fine means for him, being that he has not played a lengthy stretch in a long time, but I am not that concerned about the boy. He cannot hit the inside fast balls, but hey, who can these days?

DJ- probably going to take a hit, then get his in. I think he is likley, realistically, good for .800 OPS, which, my Yankee loving friend points out to me is not actually very good, but hey, it beats Hatte v.2004. I am an A's fan. .750 OPS is just dandy.

Swish- this guy has got to get better. Not that worried even if we get what he offered last year.

Kotsay- knees man, knees. One days the dudes knees are going to wake up and say "Mark, why dont you take a seat...now." and then we will have a tendonitis filled left feilder with a .715 ops. Lets hope thats not soon.

Payton- read the history, .330/.440 career ops. Thats WITH Coors feild. Thats who he is, love him or hate him.

Bradley- not that worried about him, although I was in cleveland when he was playing there, and it was one of those times when you can open the paper every day and ask yourslef why Milton didnt tie a strong on his finger that reminded him to shut and and thank his lucky stars he lives in a country that pays your hundreds of thousands a year to play baseball. The guy can rake though.

Keilty- .750 OPS and bad hair- I think he can provide that again.

We have a lot of rookies entering sophmore years. One of them is going to slump. I bet its Johnson. Doesnt matter though, we have to give them time and patience to play through it.

Every team has problems. The A's probably have fewer than most. But I want to love them for who they are, not some delusion. I think this is a good jumping off point for anyone to express doubts or concerns for next season. It is, after all, part of being a fan.

A's making the best of a bad lineup

mikedaviswhereareyou — Fri, 16 Sep 2005 17:14:10 -0000

I am posting this from BP, becuase it is in their free content portion and contains information instead of expression, which I son't think can be copyrighted.

More importantly, I think it is interesting.

(1), the angels are only slightly less anemic that we in eqa. But here is the thing I noticed----oakland is outperforming thier estimated runs scored by 29 runs- best in the majors. Even though we are having a hard time putting runs on the board, we are doing so at a far bettter rate that expected. Tied with Seatle- but otherwise far above anyone else. The Yankees- for comparison, are underperforming thier expected runs by 8, and cleveland, by a whopping 26. Dear god, I am glad they have not fugured out whatever it is we have, or the AL would be at their mercy.

# TEAM YEAR LG PF OUTS EqA EQR R_ACT R_EST DIFF

MIN 2005 AL 1011 3739 .246 560.8 624 636 -12.0
KCA 2005 AL 986 3626 .249 559.3 616 598 18.0
SEA 2005 AL 955 3710 .250 577.9 639 610 29.0
TOR 2005 AL 1026 3707 .250 579.6 686 666 20.0
CHA 2005 AL 1021 3675 .252 588.5 677 676 1.0
OAK 2005 AL 995 3737 .252 597.8 696 667 29.0
ANA 2005 AL 962 3728 .255 611.9 670 660 10.0
DET 2005 AL 975 3651 .260 628.2 658 675 -17.0
BAL 2005 AL 976 3659 .262 645.3 652 694 -42.0
TBA 2005 AL 971 3681 .264 662.1 682 697 -15.0
CLE 2005 AL 962 3711 .266 676.4 701 727 -26.0
TEX 2005 AL 1047 3793 .266 691.4 792 796 -4.0
BOS 2005 AL 1041 3633 .273 709 821 812 9.0
NYA 2005 AL 1000 3647 .273 712.4 777 785 -8.0

Sexon on Harden

mikedaviswhereareyou — Mon, 27 Jun 2005 17:42:25 -0000

Found these quotes from RIchie Sexon after having seen Rich Harden. Made me feel very good that he is on our team:

"He threw me a pitch tonight I've never seen before. I'm sure it was a splitter, but it was wacky. It, like, knuckled up there, like a [Tim] Wakefield pitch."
--Seattle first baseman Richie Sexson, on Oakland pitcher Rich Harden (San Francisco Chronicle)

"The umpire said, 'This guy throws ghost pitches.' [He] was asking me, 'What was that?' I told him I didn't know."
--Sexson

Good Summary of Draft by Baseball Savant

mikedaviswhereareyou — Thu, 09 Jun 2005 21:18:19 -0000

Here is a link to the article in addition to an unabashed cut and paste fo the A's treatment.

http://baseballsavant.blogspot.com/

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

#21-Cliff Pennington SS Texas A&M
#36-Travis Buck OF Arizona St.
#53-Craig Italiano RHP HS-TX
#69-Jared Lansford RHP HS-CA
#101-Vincent Mazzaro RHP HS-NJ

Pennington reminds a lot of people of Khalil Greene of the Padres which isn't a bad thing. Pennington is noted as a gamer and shoudl be able to stay at SS although his defensive tools aren't outstanding. He flashes good plate discipline and gap power and can be a very good #1 or #2 hitter at the top of the lineup. Every baseball person who has come into contact with Pennington loves the guy. Buck is a big guy at 6'3 and 210lbs who plays the outfield but surprisingly doesn't have a lot of power in his bat. He's a tremendous line drive hitter with a fantastic body to work with. Like Pennington, Buck has tremendous makeup and character but profiles to play LF. Italiano was the hardest throwing high school pitcher in the drafat getting his fastball up to 98mph. He's projectable at 6'3 and 190lbs but relies soley on his fastball with a curveball mixed in. His stuff is ungodly but needs time. Lansford is another hard throwing prep player pushing his fastball up to 94mph. Projects to have 3 quality pitches. Not as high a ceiling as Italiano but #2-#3 starter isn't bad either. Mazzaro has a power arm with two different curveballs that blow hitters away. A hard thrower, Mazzaro struck out 91 hitters in just 52 innings allowing just 23 hits and 6 walks. His delivery isn't exactly smooth so another guy who needs some time. Probably a #2 starter ceiling for him.

It's hard to argue with any of these picks. Pennington might be seen as a little odd due to the presence of Bobby Crosby but you can't pass up talent like Pennington when drafting late in the first round like Oakland was doing. Plus, you never know what will happen. Pennington or Crosby could turn into something huge down the line and I'm sure Beane was thinking that when taking Pennington. Crowe is a decent bat that could turn into something big. The three high school pitchers were amazing. I was glad to see the A's abandon a college only mentality and take these 3 kids who can all turn out to be front of the rotaiton starters. I love Italiano and he has the stuff to turn into a #1 ace down the road. If the A's had a real weakness in their system it was at right handed pitching and Beane & Co. did a good job addressing it early with impact arms. With a young rotation set in Harden, Haren, Meyer, and Blanton, the A's were able to go out and get huge ceiling arms because they have the time to develop them. Very good draft for the A's.

Dan Johnson Cometh

mikedaviswhereareyou — Fri, 27 May 2005 00:04:56 -0000

I guess DJ has gotten the call. He will take Durazo's place on the roster as Ruby is placed in the DL with his bad elbow. I hope DJ gets some immediate playing time. Why not? we cannot get worse, so let the kids play. I do not know what this might mean for Hatteberg's future, but if he is not long for the white shoes, I hope he finds a comfortable home whre the folks dont care about his D and appreciate his PPA.

Here is to hoping that that hot streak continues into the summer.

Yankees Observations

mikedaviswhereareyou — Mon, 09 May 2005 18:29:40 -0000

I was at the Yankees game Mussina v. Blanton on Saterday. I thought it my duty to share some observations with A's fans less fortunate (or more fortunate if you like winnign baseball). I took some pictures to share, and I might add them later, but honestly, from the third tier with a 3x optical zoom, I did not think I was adding much to the board that you cannot imagine by chasing ants on your kitchen floor.

It was a pleasant suprise to get to see Blanton. As a Bostonian transplant from Oakland, without cable, this marks the first time this year I have seen the A's in the green and gold flesh, though I have heard almost every game on MLB radio. I had never seen Blanton, but even from 2 hundred feet away I could tell that was no rich Harden on the mound.

I though Blanton was agressive. He kept bringing that ball right inside, and the Yankees crowd boo-ed him when he did, but he was persistant, and seemed undaunted by the novelty of pitching in Yankee stadium. He consistently was touching 94, but left those awful hanging pitches up that were just hammered into the cheap seats. Well, not my cheap seats, but the ones in right field. This is all information you could and did get from watching or listening to the game so I will not go on in this.

A's fan in the 70's green hat and jersey in the back of section 1...strong strong work. I hope you post here, or read here. If you do, A's nation salutes you. This guy was taunting an entire section of yankees fans the whole game. I kept looking up to see if he was dead yet, but there he was, yelling at them in his Hudson jersey and keping them riled up despite the mounting loss. He stayed through the 8th, and the yankees fans, cowed by recent ineptitude, just let him do it to them in their on house.

There were not that many other fnas flashing the green and gold. Not like games in Fenway where you can see streaks of gold in the stands.

Chavez looked like he was sleep walking though his plate appearances, but it occured to me that this might be a good thing. If this season is a season of breaking in the new kids, then having Chavez face the first prolonged slump of his career now is good timeing even if it is bad baseball. Baseball players talk about slumps in an existential sense. Something that must be worked through. I think Mulder might become a better pitcher for his failures in 04. So maybe Chavez is finding himslef. Harnessing that inner Bad*ss.

Hatte is pure Zen. He is limited only by ability, but never does anythign stupid. While I think we get 70% of Chavez's potential, I think we get 95% of hatte's potential every night. That is all. Sitting right over home plate, I would see the pitches slicing by the corners. 1 mm off the plate, and Hatte's body did not even tense. It was weird. Even the Yankees fans gave him the respect of silence. They remember him from his Boston days.

Everyone warms up with that stupid weighted bat. I have to imagine it is killing our bat speed as we were pushing everything to Jeter. An extensive experiement with the KC royals in the 80s established conclusively that swinging a weighted bat before going to the plate decreases bat speed, I wonder why they still allow it.

Kendall drops a lot of pitches. Does Blanton have that much movement?

Finally.

So after the game, my boy Jeff, who is a Yankees fan from Staten but still remembers the dark times fo the 80s and so is sypathetic to bad hitting, and I head to the team store becuase Jeff has worn through another Yankees cap. We go the short way, but are stopped by the police, because the area is cordoned off for players. we are walking back and these two guys pass us. I say to Jeff, "check it out, that s Mark Kotsay and Mark Ellis". Sure enough. they looked glum enough that I did not want to bother them, but Jeff was needling me to go say hey so long that when I saw an enourmous red afro climbing the stairs to the 4-5-6 train, I ran up to catch him. "Excuse me, are you Bobby Keilty", I asked. "yes" he said. "You had a nice nice game" I lied. "thanks...we'll get them tommrrow".

Ok, nothign groudnbrekaing. I would have taken a picture, but he looked devestated from the game. What am I going to do with a picture of Bobby Keilty- you know? still, it was cool to see him, cool the players take the subway, and terrifying that he dresses that badly. Seriously, the drunk bums outside the stadium were avoiding him.

I will end with this. I am an A's fan becuase I love baseball. And I love the A's. And I learned to love the A's in the dark years on the mid nineties. And I lived in Oakland but now I live far away, so sometimes when you are having dry heaves watching our team, keep this in mind: thre are those of us so desperate to see our boys that we will travel 3 hundred miles to catch a game and we sit in the stands with gris on our faces through 9 innings of getting shut out becuase we had the privilege of seeing them out there on the grass making plays, making throws, grounding into double plays. They are just boys, playing a game, and I love the game, and I love seeing them play it. Even when they are playing it badly.

Some questions

mikedaviswhereareyou — Wed, 16 Mar 2005 23:44:13 -0000

Ok, these are real questions, baseball related though not A's specific except that I would like to know what the A's do also. Its spring trianing and I would like answers for the season.

Who pitches batting practice?

When the team is going to face a particular starter, does the guy throwing BP chage the pitch? I mean if it is Moyer, does he soft toss it? for Colon does he throw it hard right down the middle? Can he throw a knuckle? Seriously, don't you think this would help?

How many pitches does each batter take?
Does anyone face off speed stuff?

A's top in outfeild D?

mikedaviswhereareyou — Wed, 16 Mar 2005 17:01:24 -0000

This is interesting...from baseball prospectus:

Top 5 2005 AL Defensive Left Fielders, by PECOTA Projected Fielding Runs

Player Team Games FRAA
Carl Crawford TBA 136 7
Charles Thomas OAK 79 3
Reed Johnson TOR 110 2
Eric Byrnes OAK 138 1
Larry Bigbie BAL 113 1

I cannot couch for their defensive metric, but any system that ranks Byrnes that high must be questioned. Still, this is an interesting result.