** As emailed this afternoon to a circle of non-Giants fans.  Yes, long posts are long.  Have a beer. ***

First thing's first. Giants fan here. Take those bow and arrows and write "Giants Groupie" on the feathers.  It's fair.  But hear me out.  Because there's a strong chance that the difference between the number of Giants games I have watched, vs. the national "experts," is much larger than the difference between the number of PHILLIES games I have watched, vs. said experts.  And as a Twitter follower of Jayson Stark (purported national media analyst but obvious Phillies blowhard), I have read more than my share of Phillies analysis over the years.
So before you laugh too hard, let me make my case why it's no sure thing that the Phillies are going to dismantle the Giants and - dare I say it - explain how San Francisco may actually emerge victorious in this series.

• 4) ESPN has an odd way of looking at things
  
  You see, our friends at ESPN have a lot of money.  Much of that money comes from the pockets of folks in Boston, New York, and Philadelphia.  Lots of that money is spent on televising games of teams in those cities.  And lots of some of that money is spent on shiny new graphics that look much better than what you'd find on, say, the old 1990s CNNSI telecasts.  Or anywhere else.
  
  If you've watched Baseball Tonight or Sportscenter, even just once, you'll notice that just about every sentence that comes out of the mouth of an anchor or analyst is backed up with nifty CG boards chalk-full of statistics that back up what's being said.  So much so, that it begs the chicken-egg question:  which came first, the writing of the CG board, or the words on the teleprompter?
  
  Take it from someone who knows: the best graphics boards are the ones that have stats that look a little more outrageous than they really are.  Outrageous, because the numbers tell two completely separate tales, or two impossibly similar ones.  It seems the data most being used to compare the Phils and Giants are the numbers which emerged out of a whopping sample size of six games.  And yet, those six games resulted in a 3-3 split.
  
  We're being reminded that the Phillies are going to destroy the Giants because Chase Utley hit home runs in a World Series game against the Yankees (score one for relevance).  We're reminded that Roy Halladay is a god because he no-hit the Reds, yet we're not reminded of the fact that this year, he did lose to, well, the Giants.  They tell us that Roy Oswalt is the best trade acquisition of the year, which clearly trumps the fact that the Giants have beaten him a few times this year.
  
  ESPN decided long ago that Philadelphia was the best team in the National League, and I am not disputing this claim.  But once this decision was made, the "experts" rolled up their sleeves and got to cherry-pickin', because sure enough, they need to look smart.  Wake me up when they dig up the CG that says "sometimes the best team doesn't win in a small-sample-size series.  And that's all the Giants need to do.
  
• 3) This H20 Dominance theory is all wet
  
  Are Halladay, Oswalt, and Cole Hamels good? Of course they are.  They are fantastic.  Could you imagine if Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez pitched in the Eastern time zone?  I mean, wouldn't it be cute if someone said they were built for the NLCS because their initials spell L-C-S?
  
  OK, no no no.  I am not minimizing the great pitching of the Phils' Big 3.  But the Giants' Big 3 are every bit as good.  At least, the media would certainly tell you that if they were East Coast pitchers with the same results... at least recently.
  
• 2) Good pitchers do not faze the Giants
  
  Who cares that we are facing those guys?  Hell, the guy that scares me the most is Joe Blanton, because by most measures, he is average, and borderline suck.  And that's the type of pitcher the Giants NEVER beat (large sample sizes to prove it).  The Giants are full of a bunch of average hitters, some of whom actually have good at-bats but are held back by their, well, lack of talent.  Check out the names of some of these Giant killers:
  
  Derek Lowe, Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Vicente Padilla, Jason Hammel... and the beat goes on.
  
  The point is, EVERY pitcher this lineup faces has the potential to be Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, or Cole Hamels.  This team has faced great pitching all year, and still won 92 games and a playoff series.  They are used to this stress.  They find ways to win by embarrassing themselves offensively, but they win.
  
• 1) Things that WILL supposedly happen vs. things that HAVE happened
  
  Will: The Phillies will destroy the Giants because the Phillies have the Big 3.
  
  Have: The Giants led the majors in ERA.  Giants starters and relievers posted far superior numbers than their cheesesteak counterparts.  The Giants won three of the six games against Philadelphia, and were a Jayson Werth ducksnort away from being 4-2.  This doesn't prove supremacy, but it does prove that it doesn't take an act from God for the Giants to compete well.
  
  Will: The Phillies will destroy the Giants because the Phillies have a deeper lineup than San Francisco.
  
  Have: The Giants won three of the six games against Philadelphia, when the Phillies were injured and the Giants were, amazingly, playing a lineup worse than the current unit.  The replacements for Utley and Howard and Rollins were the kind of guys the Giants rolled out on a daily basis for far too long.
  
  Will: The Phillies will destroy the Giants because, well, just because.
  
  Have: Any playoff series is a crapshoot.  Did you know that the Phillies once lost three straight to the Mets? and three of four to the Pirates?  There's a decent chance the Phils would be favored to beat those two powerhouses in the playoffs.  But they still lost.  Because in any seven-game stretch, weird things can happen. A star player can get injured.  A defender could get spooked into three errors in a game.  The Phillies bullpen could be exactly what we think they should be.  Todd Wellemeyer could outpitch Roy Halladay (although not in this series).  Buster Posey could walk on water and throw out Shane Victorino four times in a game.  Pat Burrell could ex-team his ass all over Philly's face.  Juan Uribe could lay off a first pitch.  Jonathan Sanchez could be the only Giant to win in Citizen's Bank Ballpark (like he was this year), and the Giants could STILL win the series.

Should the Phillies win this series? On paper, of course.
But to predict a series based on what the paperwork tells you is to forget what baseball is all about.  Baseball is about the balls that hit the chalk line and are called foul by a fat blind ump.  It's about the superstar who pulls a quad while trying to leg out a ball hit into triples alley at AT&T.  It's about the Aubrey Huff inside-the-park HR because the visitor doesn't know how to play the wall.  It's about the fact that Roy Halladay had more than one mediocre start this year, and IT ONLY TAKES ONE to take a loss.  It's about the fact that you don't reach the LCS unless you're a good team.
The Phillies have been there twice in a row.  The Giants, and most of their players, haven't even sniffed the World Series.  I'll go with the hungrier team... the team with enough lefties to shut down the Phillies (who were shut down for a month - IT CAN BE DONE, HALLELUJAH!).  I'll go with the better bullpen, where game results still count when a SP doesn't get the decision.  I'll go with the team that's faced good pitching all year (not the Phillies).  I'll go with the team that won't panic if they lose one or two of the first two games.  I'll go with the team I love, but not because I love them.
Prediction: Giants in 6.

"It was a difficult winter," Molina said. "First I thought, 'I'm one of the best three catchers out there, a good clubhouse guy and someone who always puts out a great effort.' I thought I would get more offers. It gets you down a little bit to be treated like that and to not be appreciated for what you've done. It just didn't happen for me on the open market. It's difficult to not get discouraged by that. But nobody is going to feel sorry for you. It's a tough and sometimes rude business. I thought that over the last five years I had proven enough. Obviously people didn't notice."

From ESPN Insider Story:

Molina Makes a Self-Assessment
By Jorge Arangure Jr.

 

 

I have made a few talking points bold.  Enjoy.

On vacation. Don't bother me. Should the Giants trade Matt Cain for Evan Longoria, I'll tweet something super witty.

In the interim, enjoy this Thanksgiving-themed FanPost, which eliminated the need for me to write one. That's a good thing, as I was going back to the Lincecum-to-Rios well for a second straight year, and that would have brought out the Sabean-was-just-playing-around!/That-was-never-a-serious-offer crowd, who are almost as offensive as 9/11 Truthers.

Happy Thanksgiving, all. -- Grant

 

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