
mlbfan30
Mar 20, 2008 Nov 12, 2008 1 18
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Reds Players w/ MOB - Interesting Find
This article deals with MOB only
Using Dunns 2006 vs. Phillips 2007
PA AB H HR RBI BB IBB SO GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
---299 235 51 17 69 57 12 87 8 .217 .372 .472 .845
---337 306 85 11 75 18 4 56 26 .278 .325 .451 .776
So the difference is a .217 VS .278 BA
However.... there is one thing that sticks out, and thats GIDP.
So how much should we weight it? Should it count against AVG or against
OBP? Actually it should count against SLG. I'm going to do TB-GDP and
re-adjust the SLG%.
Reason: SLG = TB/AB. But a GIDP loses a base a different player
would have gained. In fact, GIDP should be weighted more, because a
single = 1TB. But without a GIDP, the runner is on 2nd compared to 1st,
thus it's easier to score. I could go into BaseRuns, but that's too
complicated for now.
- New lines -
- BA OBP AdSLG AdjOPS
.295 .386 .518 .904 - Griffey - Career
.257 .392 .502 .894 - Dunn - 07
.243 .410 .474 .884 - Dunn - Career
.325 .394 .455 .849 - EE - 07
.278 .396 .425 .821 - Griffey - 07
.296 .382 .435 .817 - EE - Career
.217 .372 .438 .810 - Dunn - 06
.278 .325 .366 .691 - BP - 07
.269 .320 .344 .664 - BP - Career
So what? Right. Well this does a few things.
#1 - BP is just not a good hitter. There is no way he should be batting
4th, a place where theoretically a person will hit the most with MOB.
He's looking awful in this.
#2 - EE is a very very solid hitter with MOB. He's a much better option for batting 4th compared to BP.
#3 - Dunn can fluctuate a lot. Using the career mark, .884 AdOPS is
still solid. Even though his AVG is .243, he puts up the 2nd best AdSLG
up there behind Griffey. Would you rather have EE-C or Dunn-C hitting
with MOB? It's pretty clear Dunn is better. What he misses in Hits, he
makes up in TB. Dunn is the best current MOB hitter on the team.
#4 - Griffey's an amazing hitter career wise, but he's not great anymore. EE is a better hitter with MOB.
#5 - Anyone else you want to see with enough sample size?
Extra Thought
This goes against a lot of what I've been saying, but BP needs to leadoff.
His GIDP are such a rally killer, that he should be batting with the
least amount of MOB as possible. Maybe he'll change his approach and
take more walks if he leads off? It's possible.
Conclusion
While normally you want a high OBP hitter 1st, BP might be an exception.
I Split G GS PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+----+----+-----+--------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
0 outs 361 604 559 .302 .336 .449 .785 .326 118 0 outs
1 outs 360 630 581 .265 .308 .439 .747 .283 106 1 outs
2 outs 357 599 554 .217 .275 .361 .636 .254 76 2 outs
As you can see, BP is at his best with 0 outs, so maybe just by maximizing the amount of time he gets up to bat with 0 outs, he will perform the best.
Many people are saying Dunn should bat 2nd, but he's the best current hitter with MOB. Thus batting 3rd is the best option, with EE batting right behind him.
Thought?
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