SB Nation User Blog: mmalogic

My UFC 100 Betting picks

mmalogic — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:30:47 -0000

OK bitches... here are my picks:

Take all your money and split it evenly on the following:

Mark Coleman

Bisping

Belcher

With this allocation I calculate a less than 10% chance of losing money and a 90% chance of being in profit.

I have Brock at an 85% probability of winning - if he fights smart it is improbable for him to lose. The line here is not worth it.

GSP vs Alves has unknown variables of great implication. If GSP can take Alves down its game over. If GSP can't he still has a chance on the feet but not as good as Thiago's chances.

Rumor: Affliction is DONE... (Updated: Atencio Denies)

mmalogic — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 01:02:16 -0000

Promoted from the Fanposts by Kid Nate. Please note that this news is unconfirmed but MMALogic has shown himself to be a credible inside source in the past.

Affliction MMA is Done.

Tom Atencio will be making an announcement soon.

A third show will probably happen to fulfill Affliction Entertainments larger contract obligations unless a deal with Zuffa can be arranged to offset some of the costs while Affliction pays off their contract obligations via "sponsorships"...

You could hear in Tom's voice after the event - the realization that:

Everyone is making money here (Trump, Golden Boy, the fighters, etc...) at the expense of Affliction losing millions.

With Affliction footing virtually the entire bill and after PPV distributor: Showtime and Promoter Golden Boy taking their cut - Affliction is left with less than $13 per PPV buy to cover expenses.

Making the initial estimate of 250,000 buys not even close to what will be needed to break even.

Update from Michael Rome: I have been digging at this story for the last 3 or 4 hours since I first heard it. I believe it to be true. A source at UFC informed that Lorenzo Fertitta was contacted today by Affliction looking for a "beneficial" way out, but it was only one source and it remains just a rumor.

Update 2: Tom Atencio was apparently on a Sirius show and denied the end of Affliction. He also denied ever being on the Tom Leykis show, which was a rumor posted elsewhere:

Tom Atencio denies all rumors of Affliction closing its doors. He denies even appearing on the Tom Leykis show or talking with the UFC.

"Things are moving forward...as long as people are talking about me I must be doing something right."

Aoki is NOT a Top Five Fighter

mmalogic — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 17:37:09 -0000

Aoki is not a top five lightweight... his pants are!

From his own coach (Eddie Bravo):

A lot of guys are using the rubber guard now; a lot of guys. But what makes Aoki different are the pants. The pants just make the rubber guard more effective. Slipperiness is the enemy of submission.

It’s no question Aoki is so effective with his rubber guard right now because of the pants.

The guy who trained him in the rubber guard admits this...

This is not MMA. This is tantamount to a striker knocking out his opponents with brass knuckles and people saying he's a top 5 fighter.

This guy wouldn't last without his magic underwear.

********

Source:

http://www.fighthype.com/pages/content4135.html

EliteXC Heat Ratings Are In...

mmalogic — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 21:09:03 -0000

The ratings are in:

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/10/05/ratings-saturday-october-4-americas-most-wanted-petruzelli-beat-kimbo-slice/5695

As Ive stated before my data didn't show Elite beating its network debut numbers...

I can tell you however that CBS did have higher expectations... As did pro-elite I'm sure.

Elite was hoping for at least one silver lining to what transpired last night...

The future of MMA on CBS is not looking real good...

UPDATE: I am hearing a few Elite XC people are looking for jobs.

HBO Unhappy With Golden Boy/Affliction

mmalogic — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 23:16:23 -0000

Promoted by Michael Rome

I just got off the phone with a friend of mine over at HBO (who will remain anonymous) and they want nothing to do with "bastardizing" (as he put it) their Boxing product.

It seems Golden Boy offered the Arlovski/Barnett fight on the under card of Hopkins/Pavlik... but HBO rejected the idea.

We also discussed the end game:

If Golden Boy is successful what then? You just converted another fan pool for the UFC. The casual UFC fan will not order these mixed boxing/MMA cards who wouldn't already... so the best case scenario for Golden Boy is to convert their boxing fans into MMA fans.

Is Golden Boy taking a risk may bite them in the ass? It seems HBO is not.

If you work the numbers and realize that in order to be successful you would have to convert a good portion of the boxing fans into MMA fans... that opens up alot of variables that can blow up in your face - for example: right now boxing ppv's are hurt by counter programming via other boxing events on other networks...

This would create a situation where counter programming by other MMA events can then have a similar effect.

For HBO It would be like playing chess against 2 players where you only have one set while the other 2 each have their own... how can you conceivably protect your king?

Randy Couture to Headline UFC 91

mmalogic — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:49:55 -0000

Well this has been the talk for months but now a few individuals are starting to leak it out... Much to the dismay of the general MMA media who would have wanted to make the scoop.

"The Real Big Pun" let the cat out of the bag on fightsport.

Randy Couture will in all likelihood headline UFC 91 in Portland, Oregon..

The hope is that the opponent will be fedor however the probability will be that his opponent will be non other than Brock Lesnar.

MMA LOGIC

mmalogic@ymail.com

UFC Co-Promotion: The Reality

mmalogic — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:00:31 -0000

Many Radio Personality's, MMA writers and even some fighters will have you believe that there is a possibility of the UFC co-promoting if not now sometime in the future...

Let me illustrate for you what would have to transpire in order for the UFC to comply - so the reality of the situation can be better understood:

A real competitor to Zuffa must emerge.

An Organization needs to emerge not owned by zuffa that not only can maintain profitability but can match or exceed zuffa's revenue.

Why? Because in order to compete on pay you have to be able to compete in revenues and profitability.

Zuffa has a nasty way of calculating compensation with the understanding of what the competitions revenues can sustain and their bids always keep the competition in the red.

The current reality is not one organization has been able to compete nationally and remain profitable let alone match Zuffa's revenue.

Let's say an organization has TV and gets on PPV. The UFC will counter program and their free counter programming will range from a replay all the way to a star studded ppv quality card.

An organization would need to spend a fortune just to get close to 200k ppv buys.

So some say don't compete with Zuffa initially... build stars first.

Where do you think your stars will end up once their contract is up?

Cung Lee is already in talks with Zuffa... once Kimbo, Lawler, shields, big foot's contracts are up where do you think they will go?

Elite XC can't afford to put on their next show let alone match what ever offers that will come their way.

Bottom line if you compete with Zuffa they have a plethora of tactics to keep you in the red.

The Conclusion is in order to promote on a national level you need to build fighters that Zuffa doesnt want (so far women)...

And a Man vs Woman fight won't force Zuffa to co promote.

MMA Logic mmalogic@yahoo.com