"Yeah that happens more times than not. The car that leads the most laps doesn't win."
That was Jimmie Johnson's conclusion after his heartbreaking finish at Michigan. Johnson of course, dominated Sunday's race at Michigan leading 146 laps only to run out of fuel on the last lap while leading. It's a cliche race fans have heard forever, but is it really true?

Given my lack of interesting hobbies I decided to find out. Looking at the last five years worth of races I counted up the number of winners that also led the most and 2nd most laps on the day (Racing-Reference is amazing).

The total win percentage for five years was 47% for the driver leading the most laps and 68% for a driver leading the most or second-most laps in the race. While technically Johnson is right that it happens more often than not, the truth is that if you lead a lot of laps you have a pretty chance of winning a race. In fact Johnson should know quite a bit about dominant cars. In 42 career wins he's been the dominant car (or at least led the most) in 15 races. Add in the times he's led the 2nd-most laps and it's a stout 26 races. While his respective win percentages are slightly lower (35.7%, 61.9%) than the 5 year average, they are pretty close. Further he's had ten races in his career (including 2 this year) with the most laps led that didn't translate into a win.

Through 15 races in 2009, 6 cars have won and led the most laps (40%) and 7 have won while leading the most or second most laps (46%). It's a small sample size and the summer traditionally has had a lot of races dominated by one or two cars. By year end the numbers will likely mimic the last five years.

So what does this mean? It's pretty simple: the best cars usually win. Sure Mark Martin or Brad Keselowski can steal a win by leading only the last lap, but usually the best two cars will win the race.

For those just waking up from their annual Pocono beauty rests, here's a few things that happened last weekend.

• Tony Stewart won his first points race as an owner. While Smoke's season has been impressive, let's take a step back. He's getting credited with being the first owner/driver to win since Ricky Rudd won in 1998. Technically that's true, but Stewart bought in to an existing team with sound infrastructure already in place. This wasn't like Robby Gordon or even Michael Waltrip building a team from scratch. All credit to Stewart for landing sponsorship, aligning with Hendrick and going out and driving the wheels off every week, but it's hardly the same as Rudd or an independent driver/owner turning the trick.
• NASCAR implemented double-file restarts at Pocono. The decision itself seems like a simple and logical move to get the lead lap cars closer together at the front of the field. Whether the change is positive or negative is not the point. What I struggle with is whether any midseason rule change is good or bad for the sport. Excluding safety concerns, no other sport installs or changes rules in the middle of a season. If a 2pt conversion or instant replay is a good idea, it has to wait until the next season to change. NASCAR changes rules whenever they think it's necessary. On the positive side someone could say NASCAR is proactive. If something is a good idea, why wait for next year? Of course people could also say that officials are simply reacting to the latest controversey (i.e. freezing the field on cautions) and making the rules up as they go. I'm stuck in the middle on this one. Any thoughts?
• Silly Season has been slow to gain speed, but according to SI.com, Martin Truex might be the first big piece to fit in place. According to Tim Tuttle, Truex's initial option was possibbly Hendrick's #5 car until Mark Martin opted for another fulltime go in 2010. So the top two options for the biggest free agent prize are (Stewart)-Haas-CNC Racing and Michael Waltrip Racing. Who would have imagined that last sentence a year ago? Maybe next year we'll be hearing gossip about Jeff Gordon weighing his options between Petty Enterprises and Phoenix Racing.

A year ago Joey Logano made his NASCAR debut. Not his Sprint Cup debut, his debut in any of the top three touring series. With two poles and a win in his first three starts in the Nationwide Series, he appeared to match the hype surrounding his young career. Ever since Mark Martin boasted that Logano could drive a Cup car better than some veterans when Logano was 15, people have waited for the newest NASCAR superstar.

The hype continued to grow after Joe Gibbs named Logano to replace 2-time champion Tony Stewart in the Home Depot car. People started calling him Sliced Bread and expectations grew in line with the hype. Then in the fall Logano made three Cup starts and stunk. He didn't finish better than 32^nd in three starts. Logano's 2009 started the same as 2008 ended. He wrecked and finished dead last in the Daytona 500.

With greater coverage and exposure in sports media, everyone is looking for the next superstar. And that makes people search earlier and earlier to unearth that next Big Thing. When Kyle Busch made his decut and almost immediately ran at the front of the pack and challenged for wins, that was suddenly the expectation for rookies. Kyle Busch is a phenom and that makes him the exception, not the expectation. The important thing to remember is that Logano just turned 19. With testing banned for 2009 Logano not only faced bigger expectations, but a steeper learning curve. A curve where seat time gets crammed almost exclusively into race weekends.

His early spring was a typical rookie season filled with decent runs (13^th at Las Vegas), days where the team struggled or experienced a total nightmare all weekend like at Daytona. After five races he was on the edge of the top 35 in owners points and in danger of losing his guaranteed starting spot. Now look at his May. Logano has scored three top 10's in his last five races and posted finishes better than 21^st in every race since Phoenix. He has led laps at Darlington, Talladega and Lowe's showing he's becoming more comfortable in the vaunted #20 car. He has gained With top cars provided by Gibbs and his steady improvement, it's not impossible to see Logano knocking on the door to Victory Lane before November.

Share your thoughts. Can he win a race this year? Is Logano overrated or just a victim of the hype machine?

It’s official, Tony Eury Jr is out as crew chief of the #88. Now the search is on for the splashy replacement. Rick Hendrick has a tall task to find someone that can not only resurrect the 2009 season and get Junior in the Chase, but win double-digit races every year and not only get the team to championship-caliber, but to Cup-winning status (preferably multiple Cups). Maybe it just feels that way as the most scrutinized crew chief in the garage. Since Rick Hendrick is definitely busy, here are a few places to start his search. Free of charge* (*Unless Mr H is a loyal reader and is willing to let us charge him for our headhunting services).

5. Pete Rondeau-Remember him? He was thrown to the wolves the last time Eury and Earhnhardt were put in separate corners. Rondeau lasted 11 races and never seemed comfortable with NASCAR’s biggest star but look at the numbers compared to Eury Jr’s 2009: 2005-11 races: 3 top 5’s, 5 top 10’s and 8 top 15’s with 5 laps led. 2009-12 races: 1 top 5, 3 top 10’s and 5 top 15’s with 90 laps led. Odds: Million to One (They’d have to locate Rondeau first)

4. One Lucky Dale Jr Fan-Think about it. Junior Nation is filled with Monday morning crew chiefs and simracing nuts. It must be really easy to be smarter than a professional crew chief. So now these fans could get their chance. Just have Amp run a contest for a fan to assume the place atop the pitbox everything would correct itself. Because everyone not named Eury knows that all it takes to fix the #88 is to add more wedge and lower the track bar. Odds: Chances of winning dependent on number of entries. Look for specially marked Amp cans at a store near you .

3. Danica Patrick-The second biggest name in American motorsports has an expiring contract. Now is the perfect time to switch to stock cars. Some say she's too small to handle the heavier cars, so here's a compromise. Let her call the shots on the #88 crew and NASCAR still gets all of the publicity and marketing ties.

Odds: 100-1 (Who cares about winning when you can sell twice as much merchandise?)

2. Ray Evernham- One of the most successful crew chiefs in history, Evernham called the shots on the #24 team in the 90’s, winning 3 Cup titles and 47 races with Jeff Gordon. Given Evernham’s ties to Hendrick and his current presumed spare time, it’s a popular rumor. The trouble is that he hasn’t been a crew chief since 1998. That’s a decade of new technological advances, tire compounds, Car of Tomorrow nonsense and has anyone actually asked him about his interest? He sold the majority of his race team to get away from the grind. Maybe the unique challenge with Earhnardt Jr would change his mind. Odds: 50-1

1. Pick A Star, any star. Dale Jr is the biggest name in NASCAR. The theory goes that short of a family member as his crew chief (I think Kerry’s available), he will require a big name crew chief. True or not, that is the likely outcome in Hendrick’s new reality show, "America’s Next Top Pit Boss". Whether they can pry someone like Greg Zipadelli from Gibbs, Darian Grubb or Pat Tryson from Roush will be intersting to see.

Who do you want to see in a National Guard bowling shirt? Would Ray Evernham really come back for another swing at it? Share your thoughts below.

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Allow me to preface this with one point: I hate All-Star games. All of them. Maybe it's because my childhood awe for pro athletes was vanquished a long time ago, or that I just don't have as much time for exhibition games, All-Star games just can't do anything to get me worked up (aside from disgraceful decisions that lend meaning on the World Series). In most cases of All-Star games it comes down to a simple theory of "Why should I care about the game if the athletes don't?" For NASCAR drivers it's a race and the same rewards await him in the Victory Lane, so there's plenty of incentive to care about the All-Star race. It's still a contrived race weekend trying to mirror stick-and-ball sports. Pit crew challenges, crew chief races and burnout contests? None of these will appear next to a Nate Robinson dunk on Sportscenter or Youtube (nor should they).

-It's expensive for teams. All of the individual events feature their own costs. It's not like basketball where they have the gym rented for the whole weekend so they can just add 3-point and dunk contests with little additional cost.

The race itself is guaranteed overtime for anyone working in the fabrication department. The burnout contest is costly, especially when you consider that a blown engine is much more costly than simply wadding up your hood. Further, it's hard to see the motivation for an unsponsored, under-funded team to show up. They don't have a sponsor to show off, there are no owners points to chase, and unless someone pulls off a David Gilliland/Brad Keselowski type upset, running a "Your Ad Here" sign probably won't do much either. It seems like a floundering team would be better off taking a week off to get ready for the 600 and the chance at a decent pay day.

-No one knows the rules. Even drivers have trouble remembering what the format is because it gets changed every year (old school fans might chime in and say so does the championship format). Similar to the Bud Shootout, the format changes yearly. It's four 20 lap segments, no 25. You have to pit twice for fuel, especially on qualifying, although only in the final segment. Inverted restarts, This year the first draft of the rule book had drivers begin on the new drag strip, then do 80 laps with no pit stops for fuel or tires, then get out of the cars, do a snow angel while each crew chief shotguns a PBR (I haven't seen the final copy of the format, some elements may have been dropped).

-It's not really a week off. I hear the argument that since it's a short race at NASCAR's unofficial home track in Charlotte, that it's like giving the teams an extra week break during the season. Tell that to the crew and shop workers. Sure everyone can sleep in their own bed (heck, Dale Jr has a condo at the track), but it still looks like a lot of prep work to get the cars to the track, through inspection and set up for all the practices and heats. On top of that, there is the potential for more work thanks to the other silliness of the weekend (did I mention fab shops will likely pull in time-and-a-half?).

One of the few bonuses I see for the All-Star race is that it's about two days shorter than the Coke 600. A better solution is to use the Bud Shootout as the only exhibition in the preseason, and then have a true off weekend for the teams and crews, Even better move up the races and save the off week for late August or September leading up to the Chase.

What do you think of the All-Star race? Watch it and love it? Watch it and tolerate it? Or do you consider it an off weekend and do yardwork? Share your thoughts.

10 races into the 2009 season is enough time for some larger themes to form. The Chase field boasts only accomplished names and that means it's time to look at the big issues around NASCAR. Kind of like a mid-term report card, but without the gimmicky grades.

• Roush Fenway Racing is still working out the kinks. Last year the team had the intermediate tracks figured out. Carl Edwards has led 42 laps and hasn't been a factor in most races (only one top five). Matt Kenseth won at Fontana (His Daytona win is pretty irrelevant to the rest of the season) but has been AWOL since. David Ragan's breakout season hasn't materialized and Greg Biffle has yet to catch fire. Oh yeah and Jamie McMurray just isn't the driver everyone expected in 2005.
• Startups aren't Starting. Remember in February when Tommy Baldwin and Jeremy Mayfield started new racing teams citing lower operating costs thanks to the CoT and the no-testing policy? Costs may be down, but neither team has made a big impact.The two teams have combined for 11 starts and only one finish better than 30th,
• Stewart-Haas Racing is better than advertised. I predicted Tony Stewart would make the Chase and have a nice year, but I thought it would take much longer to threaten for wins. With slightly different circumstances he could have won at Martinsville ,Texas or Phoenix. He followed it all up with a strong 2^nd place at Richmond and Ryan Newman has begun running in the top 10 as well.
• Testing? We're talkin' about testing? NASCAR's decision to ban all testing at NASCAR sanctioned tracks posed a large question mark entering 2009. The goal was to save the team's money, but how would it affect the racing? Well, let's hope the ban has saved teams a lot of money. The action at the front of the pack, especially on intermediate tracks, has been sparse. 
• Kurt Busch is a pretty good driver too. Kyle gets all the pub, both good and bad, but Kurt is showing he hasn't forgotten how to wheel it. Since the elder Busch switched from a Ford to Dodge he has almost single-handedly carried the Dodge banner. He dominated at Atlanta and has finally found consistency from his pit crew, allowing him to bring home deserved top 5's and top 10's.
• It's official: Dale Jr is struggling. The early season schedule plays to Dale Earhardt Jr's strengths and played a big part in his hot start in 2008. It used to be he could show up to Atlanta, Bristol, Texas, Phoenix or Richmond and effortlessly rattle off top tens. Now the team struggles with handling or pit road problems on a weekly basis, regardless of the track type. I'm not convinced a crew chief change is the answer, and the team has plenty of time to make the Chase, but something is not clicking right now. No matter your opinion on how good of a driver Jr is, he's clearly too good to regularly be mired in 25^th with a poor handling car. 
• Is RCR any better than they were in 2005 (Casey Mears makes a good Dave Blaney)? Sure they've won 13 races in the past three seasons, but the 2009 lineup at Richard Childress Racing is looking a lot like the team that won one race in 2005 and looked largely lost. Sure they can paper over the cracks on short tracks and road courses, but RCR has taken a step back on the intermediate tracks. Maybe it's the strain of a fourth team or combining their engine program with DEI, but none of the teams looks capable of notching more than a handful of top 10's all season.
• One Down, who's next? The #8 car at Earnhardt-Ganassi has already been put on cinder blocks thanks to sponsorship woes. There are bound to be others to follow. Because most teams have already merged or formed partnerships, it's less likely an entire team will fold like previous sesaons. But there are a lot of cars that could use more decals on their cars to ensure the parts and sheet metal keep arriving at the shop and the haulers keep arriving at the track.

 

• In case you forgot, Mark Martin is one of the greatest drivers of this era. Sports are littered with aging stars that hang on too long (psychologists have termed this affliction Favre's Syndrome). When Mark Martin first wavered on his decision to retire in 2005, it was fair to wonder if Martin would head down that path. After three poles and a win at Phoenix, Martin is clearly a top driver at age 50.
• There are only 10 races that matter for Kyle Busch. And everyone, including him, knows it's not the first ten. He's running like he did last year, leading laps and closing out races with wins. Great. Grand. Wonderful. Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus have used the first 26 races as one big preseason test session to peak for the final ten. We'll see where the #18 team truly is at that point.