SB Nation User Blog: moldorf

2009 or...2008?

moldorf — Sun, 14 Oct 2007 17:18:48 -0000

It's fairly well accepted now that if the blazers are going to make a big move roster-wise it will be in the off-season of 2009. The "cap-space plan" is 'apparent' in the expiring nature of several contracts.

But achieving either a major free agent signing or using the cap-space won't be that simple or easy. And portland would have to make some sacrifices as well.

The first problem with that plan is that it's 'waiting till the last minute'. If for some reason portland can't swing a deal, the cap-space
will vanish and so will portland's ability to add the "icing on the cake", at least it will using cap-space. Keep in mind that webster, jack, and frye will be eligible for extensions next summer I believe, with their qualifying offers occuring in the summer of 2009. And Roy and Aldridge will be eligible for their extensions that summer as well.

Then there is the simple numbers game. Assume the salary cap in 2009 will be 61 million dollars. If you add up the player salaries that portland would be obligated to at that time it's about 55 million. Then if you add a 1st round pick in 2008, likely a lottery pick, and the cap hold for another 1st round pick in 2009, portland's total
salary base could be around 59 million.

That leaves portland with about 2-3 million in cap-space. To build sufficient cap-space to sign a good free agent or make a trade, portland would have to start 'dumping' contracts. Obviously, there are 3 players that are eligible. James Jones's contract expires, and portland has the team option on blake and outlaw. But in order to gain the 11 million in cap-space their contracts equal, portland would also have to renounce the rights to those players in order to eliminate the
cap hold their contracts apply. And portland would also have to renounce their MLE (mid-level exception) and BAE. That means those 3 players would almost certainly sign with other teams. Portland would lose them.

Portland could also consider not extending the qualifying offers to Webster, frye and jack. That would add considerable cap space, but once again they would have to renounce those players and would then lose them to other teams.

Fans have been holding out hope that somehow Darius Miles would either take a medical retirement or be traded for an expiring. Those are simply not realistic options and I would guess Kevin Pritchard recognizes that. The Miles contract is Nash and Patterson reminding KP that they were there first.

My point is that waiting untill the summer of 2009 is risky, because the options portland would have are somewhat limited and the window of opportunity will close quickly. Furthermore, at this point it appears that several teams are angling for major cap-space that same summer as well. Portland will have a lot of competition and the price of 'shopping' could be steep.

So maybe, next summer would be a much better window of opportunity for portland. If they trade players rather then simply renouncing them the blazers could get a return on investment. And if portland has a lottery pick next year and convinces Fernandez to sign, they would have 17 players and would have to make some roster decisions in any event.

Those factors alone would mean portland would have more otions next summer then a year later. Looking at it in a calculating fashion, portland would have the expiring contracts of Lafrentz, Blake, and Outlaw; they could have a lottery pick in the 2008 draft; they could have several decent young players with attractive rookie scale contracts; and they would possess the rights to Fernandez, Kaponen, and Freeland. Those would appear to be ample assets to pick and choose from for adding that "icing".

Then there is the apparent fact that few teams will have major cap space next summer, but there could be a substantial number of free agents available. So, trades, and especially sign & trades, could be the major instrument of player movement next summer and portland could be a major player in that market. And that would also leave them their MLE for both 2008 and 2009.

I'm also thinking about the major roster changes portland has undergone this summer. Next year, if Oden returns, fernandez comes over, and a lottery pick is added, then portland would have some major changes next summer as well. At a certain point, portland will need to enter a season with few changes for the interest of continuity. Remaking the core every summer is excititng for fans, but maybe not good for the development of a young team.

So there it is, maybe the cap-space plan is actually a fall-back position. I know that KP could actually have a specific player in mind but the CBA seems to make planning like that almost impossible. All things considered: oden's return, fernandez, possibly another lottery pick, and the option I'm outlining could mean that next off-season is even more eventfull then this one.

2009: Cap Space Reality?

moldorf — Wed, 22 Aug 2007 16:39:41 -0000

We've heard much and talked much about the 'apparent' plan by the Blazers to develop significant cap space in the 2009 off-season.

I'm wondering if it's real, how much room portland might have, and what they might do with it. Hey...the early part of the off-season is kind news challenged!

Anyway, after almost certainly not enough research, I'm guessing that the salary cap after July 2009 will be somewhere between 65-69 million. Just for giggles I'll say 67 million.

Here's what I've been able to quantify as the existing players' salaries at that time:

Darius Miles $9,000,000
Joel Przybilla $6,857,725
Greg Oden $5,361,240
LaMarcus Aldridge $5,844,826
Steve Blake $0
Travis Outlaw $0
Martell Webster $5,030,692
James Jones $0
Brandon Roy $3,910,816
Channing Frye $4,264,760
Jarrett Jack $2,899,798
Sergio Rodriguez $1,892,035
Josh McRoberts $0
Taurean Green $0

that's about 45 million in salary

Obviously, I've made some assumptions: Portland would renounce the final years of the Blake and Outlaw contracts. There's some risk with that, but the blazers would have full bird rights on Outlaw, and early bird rights on Blake.

James Jones's contract would have expired, as would the contract of Josh McRoberts. Portland would have early bird rights on both, but these two players could possibly get better offers from other teams depending on how they perform in the next 2 years.

Because of Portland's loaded roster, I'll also assume that portland will not use either the MLE or BAE next summer.

So that would leave possibly 4 other contracts to account for: Fernandez, Kaponen, & the 2008 & 2009 1st round draft picks.

I'm thinking that if Kevin Pritchard is serious about cap space, he may trade at least one of those picks (perhaps along with a player) before 2009. So that would leave 3 possibly late 1st round picks...about 4 million dollars.

So add 4 million to 45 million, then subtract from the "projected" 67 million cap, and you end up with 15-20 million in cap space.

That's not bad.

And looking at that roster/salary schedule, I identify 3 players with big 2009 salaries "vulnerable" to trading to some degree or another: Miles, Pryzbilla, and Webster.

The assumption is that Miles would be impossible to move and that may be correct. However, if portland really wants to trade him they may be able. For instance, Miami is 'desperate' for a young dependable PG. And they have Antoine Walker with a 4 year contract, but a team option for the 3rd and 4th years. Jack and Miles to Miami for Walker and D.Cook.

Or if portland is really determined to maximize cap space: Miles, Pryzbilla, and Jack to Miami for Walker, Doleac, and Cook. That would gain portland nearly 14 million in extra cap space.

And Webster if not traded but still ineffective, could simply be cut as his salary that season is a qualifying offer...another 5 million in space.

I'm not saying those are "good" trades, I'm just saying they might fall into the "where there's a will, there's a way" trades.

So the question becomes, what does portland do with anywhere from 15-30 million in cap space. The common assumption seems to be pursuit of a free agent(or two). That may be correct, however the free agent market often seems to be absurdly expensive. The Rashard Lewis and Jason Kapono contracts the most recent examples.

But cap space can be used for trading as well, maybe more effectively then for free agents. And portland may have several good young players on rookie scale contracts along with draft picks and cap space to engineer some interesting trades.

Or a combination of the above: a reasonably priced FA, another on the MLE, and a trade using cap space as well.

Or they could just save the cap space to re-sign Roy, Aldridge, Oden, etc.

Obviously, if some great opportunity for a roster upgrade came along before 2009, I'd expect Pritchard to abandon the cap space plan and capitalize on the opportunity. But short of that, I'd guess the summer of 2009 will be rather interesting for blazer fans.

The New Rule & Colleges

moldorf — Sun, 19 Aug 2007 15:09:42 -0000

I've been trying to figure out if the rule the NBA implemented last year...the one in which high school players couldn't go directly to the NBA...will actually impact colleges and recruiting in any significant way compared to the previous rule.

Being an Oregon Duck fan it doesn't seem to have had an effect. The Ducks never seem to be competing for 5 star recruits anyway. But some elite programs are always in the mix for those players.

In Ohio State's case last season, they were able to land 3 freshmen who took them to the NCAA title game, so maybe a 1 year 'rental' of the players was a worthwhile investment.

How about the U of Washington? They landed Spencer Hawes, to a lot of local and national fanfare. But he's gone after a single, rather unspectacular season. I suppose it's a bad example in a way. He was a local player so the coaches didn't have to spend recruiting resources on air fare and lodging. But they still invested effort, a scholarship, and all the coaching time just to see him leave after a season.

Before the new rule, when a player indicated he was 'leaning' towards going directly into the NBA, recruiters reportedly tended to back off. Now, I don't know.

I suppose it wouldn't matter for those elite schools. But if you're Ernie Kent at Oregon for example, will you be inclined to invest the time and effort on a 5 star recruit you believe will be gone after a year? Or would you be more inclined to offer a scholarship to a 3 or 4 star player you might have 3 or 4 seasons?