So, we've seen four days of Quintin Berry. It seems like most of the population here likes what they see so far and he's been enjoyable to watch. Of course, it's only been four games and we haven't seen any 0-fers yet. The overly-exited, glowing reviews of Berry have been met with the damn realists of the site saying things like "He'll regress" and "He's certainly not a full time player" and "yada yada yada...career minor leaguer". After looking over Berry's minor league numbers and his four games worth of data, here's what I've come up with, if you like Quintin Berry - don't feel guilty about it and don't expect anything different that what you're seeing. His minor league numbers in over 3000 PA's suggest he's exactly the player we've seen so far.

What I'm gathering people like about Berry so far is that he gets on base and he's got great speed. Berry's OBP in his 7 minor league seasons, 3009 PA's, is .358. So far, in Detroit, his OBP is .368. He's hitting .294 in Detroit, which is higher than is .267 career minor league rate, but nothing drastic. His SLG in Detroit is .412 compared to .338 career in the minors. That's a pretty big difference, but if that "bunt double" were a single instead, his SLG would be .353 - really close to his minor league number. If you turn both his doubles into singles his MLB SLG would be .294 and he'd still be an interesting player. He's stolen a base, which he does with regularity - averaging about 40 SB per year in the minors when he plays full time (Yep - one SB every 3 or 4 games)

What I'm saying is that Quintin Berry CAN continue to do what he's done so far. His minor league profile matches exactly what we've seen so far. So if you like it, enjoy the ride and don't let the realists tell you that he's going to come back to normal; he's already there.

I started this series earlier this week with Toledo. If you want, please feel free to read the primer. Otherwise, I’ll continue with my look at players on Erie’s team that I find to be interesting to the parent club’s future.

Erie SeaWolves (7-10)

Don’t expect much on Erie’s list; there just aren't too many legitimate prospects at this level. The bullpen actually features a few guys that could see promotions to Toledo this year or next and eventually play into Detroit’s bullpen mix, but I just can get excited about that. They’re mostly fringe guys that got drafted late, turned into relievers, and have featured good ratios so far.

Erie’s positional roster features a bunch of organizational style guys in their mid to upper 20’s. Chances are good that there’s a better option in Toledo or that a kid from Lakeland is way past them on the radar. The rotation is similar; most of the starters are pretty old and their window of opportunity is open in the technical sense much more than the realistic sense.

That being said – there are a couple of guys that are worth noting.

Continue reading this post »

Since we don't have our minor league coverage any more, it's great to see someone step up to the plate and do a nice job. Please enjoy! -- Kurt

Primer:

If there's interest and/or some positive feedback, I'm very willing to turn this into a series. I'll cover the four full-season teams (but don't expect much from Erie - I'm not too excited about those guys!) and provide updates every few weeks. In the past, several editors have done something similar to this. Please let me know if I'm stealing anyone's thunder and I'll leave it to the pros.

My definition of a "Person of Interest" is really just my own interest. Mostly, I'm interested in guys that have been viewed favorably as prospects by your major outlets. However, when it comes to Toledo they might not be prospects, but could have a role with the big league team at some point. I'll also give an occasional nod to some of those guys that might be tearing up the minors, but you won't find them on too many prospect lists because the scouts don't much care for their tools.

As for stats, I'll provide the following for offense: I'll show AB's so we can get an idea of the sample size we're viewing. Since wOBA hasn't exactly taken off yet around here, I'll use the slash line of AVG / OBP / SLG (Figure out OPS on your own if that's your stat of choice.) K/BB ratio will be mentioned as well so we can gauge plate discipline. I'll typically stay away from counting stats unless something screams at me. For pitchers, It's the same logic. I'll be using IP for sample size reference. Then we'll go with ERA and WHIP along with K/BB ratio. Once again, unless a counting stat screams at me, I won't mention it.

So, with all that out of the way, here we go.

Continue reading this post »

Thanks to the daily links, I just read Rogo's outstanding AL Central primer. One key theme kept surfacing as I read about each team's previous season and upcoming chances. The Detroit Tigers absolutely pounded everyone in their division last season.

Detroit Intra-Divisional Records, 2011:

Cleveland: 12-6
Chicago: 13-5
Kansas City: 11-7
Minnesota: 14-4

Overall: 50-22

Obviously, it helps to take care of your own business. This got me thinking about some news stories I saw last year at about this time. Several stories mentioned a Leyland quote saying that we needed to do better within our own division and he had a plan in place to accomplish that. He never really revealed his plan, but it turns out that the old codger was somehow a genius.

The general thought is that the Tigers were a pretty good team in a pretty bad division. Winning intra-division was like shooting fish in a barrel. However, despite success against the Central, the other playoff teams didn't fare nearly as well as the Tigers did. The top seed Yankees were 22-14 vs. the Central (.611). The Rays were 21-17 (.553). The playoff team from the West, Texas, was 25-18 (.581). None of the other playoff teams were nearly as good against the Central as our Tigers (.694)

Sometimes, we're quick to criticize Leyland for his decisions. This is probably a situation that deserves a little praise. He may very well have been onto something last year and let's hope he keeps doing whatever he's doing against our division rivals.

Let's do a little prospect watching and rosterbation. I'm going to consider the cases of two top prospects.

Mr. 2007 is a 3B, drafted in the 1st Round (12th overall) of the 2007 draft as a high school graduate. He played a short stint in rookie ball during his draft year, but essentially, his first full season was the next year, where he played A-ball. Here's his line as an 18-year old kid in A-ball:

2008 (A ball): 345AB, 102H, 16 2B, 18 HR, .296 / .354 / .499 AVG/OBP/SLG

Three years later, Mr. 2010 is a 3B, drafted in the supplemental round (44th) overall of the 2010 draft as a high school graduate. Same story: He played a short stint in rookie ball during his draft year, but essentially, his first full season was the next year, where he played A-ball. Here's his line as a 19-year old kid in A-ball

2011 (A ball): 562AB, 158H, 36 2B, 7 HR, .312 / .367 / .436 AVG/OBP/SLG

The stories are very similar and the stat lines tell a similar story as well. Both players had good showings in their first full professional season. Mr. 2007 exhibited more HR power while most of Mr. 2010's extra base hits were doubles. Other than that, most of the other stats comp pretty well; good average with a little on-base ability to complement the average. Defensively, Mr. 2007 has historically been evaluated as a strong defensive player at 3B. Mr. 2010 is adequate defensively at 3B, but some scouts have theorized that he may ultimately move to the OF in the majors.

Let's look at the time frame. With very similar stories and stats, we essentially have two versions of the same player. Essentially, Mr. 2007 is Mr. 2010's ghost of baseball future. Maybe Mr. 2010 can look at Mr. 2007 and see what will come about if things go unchanged? Well, we can look at how Mr. 2007 has done; he probably hasn't developed quite as well as his parent club had hoped. His 2008 season is listed above. Here's the next three:

2009 (A+ / AA): 478AB, 118H, 32 2B, 13 HR, .247 / .325 / .400
2010 (AA): 504AB, 34 2B, 14 HR, .252, / .333 / .411
2011 (AA, AAA) 358AB, 89H, 18 2B, 12 HR, .249 / .309 / .405

Mr. 2007 has had some injury issues, but has essentially turned into a .250 / .325 / .400 sort of guy as he's advanced with a fairly systematic progression. He's headed into his age 22 season as a former top prospect who's still got a strong defensive reputation and still hits for decent power, but his average and (consequentially) OBP have dipped at the higher levels. The tools that got him drafted as a 12th overall pick are still there, but that low average has taken some of his shine off. He's pretty close to MLB ready.

In the Tiger's organization, I think he'd be a favorite to take over the job sometime in 2012. As fans, we'd be ready to hand him the job since even a .250 / .325 / .400 line with good defense is better than we're expecting out of Inge/Kelly. We'd assume that even if he didn't hit for a big average in 2012, he's certainly young enough to improve and the tools are all there. Given four or five years of team control, we'd be settled at 3B for a while.

Mr. 2007 is Matt Dominguez of the Miami Marlins, who have a new (sort of) 3B named Hanley Ramirez locked up for the next three seasons. Mr. 2010 is obviously Nick Castellanos. I bet the Marlins would love to have Castellanos, with an ETA of 2015 instead of Dominguez, who's now taking up a 40-man roster spot with nowhere to go. As for 2012 and 2013, I bet the Tigers parent club would rather have Dominguez, the older and more-ready version of Castellanos.

I know as fans, we have high hopes for our prospects, Castellanos in particular. During his first professional season, he did nothing to disappoint us except strike out a bit much (which we all assume will improve) and not hit for much power (which we all say will come when he fills out). I'm sure that many of us have visions of a player in 2015 that will be better than this 2012 projection of Matt Dominguez, but it's a swap I'd consider making 1-for-1. There's a chance that Castellanos could develop exactly as Dominguez has, where part of his game falls off instead of improves. There's a lot of development between Nick Castellanos and the majors. There's always a good chance of a roadblock when the path to the majors is so long. I love Castellanos, but I think I'd make the swap. Perhaps I'll get butchered, but what does everyone think?

//momotigers raises hand...looks around room for others...finds nobody...sulks

There's a ton of clamoring lately to SIGN GRADY SIZEMORE.  Sizemore's seemingly endless fanclub boasts that "He's a great player" and "He'll be less than 9M because that's what the Indians decided not to pay him" and "He's certainly worth a chance."  

I disagree with at least two of these statements, if not all three.    

Continue reading this post »

Well, football is officially making some of us choose today.  With the Lions and Tigers both playing at 1pm, I'm wondering what the BYB community will do.  I consider myself a die-hard Tiger fan...one of the biggest around (as I'm sure just about everyone here does as well.)  I'm also a pretty big Lions fan. but my favorite team is Tigers - by a long shot.  However, with today being opening day, and football only once per week, I'm going to go with the Lions for my primary viewing.  I'll still be checking in on our Tigers at commercials and half-time.  What's everyone else going to do?

Just some fodder for a fun game-day in Michigan.

September 1, 2011 was an interesting day if you care to worry about Tigers' SP prospects.  RHP Jacob Turner made his second start for the big team.  After his debut on July 30, a lot of fans were pretty stoked to see if Turner could follow it up with an equal or even better outing.  Start number two was a disappointment as Turner was roughed up a bit:  4.1 IP, 6ER, 7H, 0BB, 2K.  Despite this outing, there's still a hefty contingency of fans that feel he's bound for Detroit next summer as our new #5 starter. 

Meanwhile, on September 1,  the Erie Seawolves were playing ball against the Birmingham Mets.  LHP Drew Smyly was on the mound and delivered another strong performance:  8IP, 1ER, 6H, 1BB, 10K.  Granted, it's 2011 and not too many folks are still confusing the Kansas City Royals with the Birmingham Mets, but it's pretty clear which line looks better.  Let's compare the two pitchers a little more closely after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

This Betemit trade is a prudent one.  I haven't seen many on this site that feel it's a bad trade.  Just about everyone agrees that upgrading from Inge to Betemit is something that will help the team and I haven't heard anyone say that the price in terms of prospects or contract obligation is too high.  Furthermore, I think many agree that this move is very much how Dombrowski behaves at the trade deadline.  He's not really getting much credit because it's not a huge, total odds-changer.  That's fine, but I think we should focus on the timing of the trade.

The trade was made on 7/20, eleven days before the July 31 deadline.  With the Tigers immediate schedule and Betemit playing yesterday (7/21), he should play in 11 more games than if he had been acquired on July 31.  Not only did Dombrowski address a major need, he did it 11 games sooner than many other teams will address their needs. 

I have no idea how this negotiation went.  What I do know is that the Royals were shopping Betemit and could have waited 11 days for other, perhaps better offers.  They did not, and I'm tempted to think that DD had something to do with it.  I'm guessing that the offer KC wanted was on the table for a very limited time, forcing them to deal early or search for other offers. 

Currently, our division looks like it will be close.  There are simply too many teams that are within striking distance to assume that the Tigers will run away with anything, regardless of how well they play over the next two months.  The early Betemit trade might not make a difference over the next 11 days, but one hit here or there could swing a game or two while our competition is still shopping.  Good job DD, not only with the trade, but also with the timing.

Who do y'all think loses a spot on the 25-man roster?  Adding Guillen to the 25-man roster creates one of the toughest decisions that the team will have had to make so far in 2011. 

The easy answer is Danny Worth if Guillen comes back on Friday the 15th, but another position player needs to go when we need the 5th starter on July 20.  With Guillen healthy, assuming Danny Worth is wearing a Hens jersey,  we have 14 position players for 13 spots:

Infield:
Avila, VMart, Cabrera, Raburn, Santiago, Guillen, Peralta, Inge, Kelly

Outfield:
Maggs, Jackson, Boesch, Dirks, Wells

My guess is that Guillen bumps Raburn from 2B.  This again makes Raburn a RH OF.  That seems to point to Casper Wells getting his ticket to Toledo.  That would be sad for Casper, but maybe a reality. 

There might be an accountant in the audience that uses the LIFO method (Last-in-first-out).  That would point toward Dirks heading south because he's the "least proven" on the the bunch.  I don't think it will happen, but it's certainly a possibility. 

Other possibilities exist.  Raburn might end up in Santiago's role as UT IF.  Santiago could be released with pretty minimal fall out (he's in a walk year and doesn't make much), but I don't see this happening.  Not many talk about the Tigers as sellers, but trading Santiago makes a lot of sense.  I'm just not sure who the takers might be. 

3B could be a factor as well.  It's probably a remote possibility that Inge could be released...barring a trade, Kelly would probably move to 3rd and Raburn would assume Kelly's role. 

Decisions, decisions.  After re-reading my post, the best thing for the team offensively would probably be to release Inge or release/trade Santiago.  Letting Santiago go would mean that we lose a defensive replacement, but so would demoting Wells.

Also, with Guillen's history, we all expect him to be on the DL after a week of play.  Releasing Inge or Santiago would be permanent move while demoting Wells would be something that could easily be undone.  I guess that's my vote.    

I always think it's fun to see how our young players are developing.  Today, I'm going to check out Austin Jackson.  After a fine rookie season in 2010, most of the BYB community knew that we could expect a lower batting average because of BABIP concerns.  That's proven to be accurate so far in 2011;  his 2010 BABIP of .398 has regressed to .338 so far this season. 

As the leadoff man in front of a potent middle-of-the-order trio, Jackson's OBP would be a key to scoring runs in 2011.  Many fans thought or hoped that the expected drop in BABIP would not hurt is OBP since they expected that Jackson would strikeout less, walk more, and get on base nearly as often by putting the ball in play.  Last season, Jackson's BABIP was .398 and his K% was 27.5%.   If we assumed that Jackson's BABIP would drop to .350 and he would get the same number of AB's, he would need to drop his K% by 10%, to 17.5%, in order to produce roughly  the same number of hits.

Let's see how this project is going.

Continue reading this post »

Right now, much of the BYB community is calling for heads to roll.  The series with Seattle certainly brought to light some offensive, defensive, and pitching issues that had been covered with a little dirt by that nice series in Chicago.  I'm in agreement that changes will need to be made in 2011 if we hope to contend.  That's a pretty easy statement to make because virtually every winning team every season makes roster changes during the season that help them along the way.

We know that changes are coming, but I wanted to get a little better idea of when we might realistically expect these changes to happen.  I decided to do a little research and see if 2010 could teach me something.  It turns out that I don't think Sparky was the only one that chose the 40-game mark to start reacting.

On May 16, 2010, the Tigers made their first major roster changes of the season (aside from injury-related changes like Boesch for Guillen).  Scott Sizemore was sent to Toledo along with Max Scherzer.  Both had been struggling all season long, but the organization didn't act until about the 40 game mark.

This season, barring any weather-related postponements, we should play game #40 on May 14th.  If the organization behaves the same way as last year, it looks like we have about two weeks before we can see <insert your favorite Sizemore for Rhymes, Oliver/Furbush for Coke/Penny, Dirks for Jackson, Kindergartner for Brad Thomas combination here>.

The next shake up was about a month later.  On June 15, 2010, Everett was released.  Porcello punched his ticket to Toledo on June 21, 2010. 

I'm sure that time isn't the only variable here, especially for major roster moves after the “first cut”.  Player performance for specific stretches along with available replacements certainly play a role in making these decisions.  However, I do believe that there’s a pretty specific time frame for this first round of moves.  I’m assuming that the decisions made in Spring training aren’t taken lightly.  If we take someone north, based on 2010, the team will give that player about 40 games to prove them right or wrong. 

The Tigers' recent decisions about the middle infield have given us all something to follow during these waning days of Spring Training.  For that, I'm thankful.  Having a team with all of their decisions made already would make for a pretty dull week while we wait, and wait, and wait for the regular season to begin. 

My opinion is that Detroit needs three middle infielders, as does Toledo.  Both clubs will mostly likely feature a starting SS, 2B, and a player that can serve as a backup to either position.  At this point, after today's news of assignments, I think we can assume the following:  Toledo's keystone combo will feature Cale Iorg and Scott Sizemore.  It's possible that the organization has other plans for Sizemore, but I'm not sure what they would be.  Detroit will have Jhonny Peralta at SS paired with their starting 2B, who looks to be Will Rhymes at the moment (via Beck's tweet.)  That leaves us with two middle infielders, Santiago and Worth, without positions. 

As some of the BYB community has commented, Santiago and Worth seem to have similar games.  Both are decent or better with the glove (Worth may be stronger defensively) and won't kill you at the plate (Santiago has a longer resume, but Worth has looked similar with the bat so far).  It seems like both of these guys would fit well on any MLB team as a backup middle infielder.  It would be a shame for either to not have at least regular job in Toledo. 

A trade is a possibility, but we would need a suitable partner and I can't fathom getting a great deal in return for either player.  Shortstop is a pretty thin position organizationally and it seems silly to me to trade a decent defensive SS candidate for the likely return on a Worth or Santiago deal. 

Barring trade, I'm curious how this situation will shake out.  Any opinions on what we do with Worth and Santiago if we assume that SS and 2B are full at both Detroit and Toledo? 

I found an article on Fangraphs today that discussed the Tigers approach (or lack of) to rotational depth as we enter 2011.  As we all know, Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Coke, and Penny have been written in stone.  There are no battles this spring to get a spot in the rotation.  No matter how well Oliver, Turner, Furbush, Below, or anyone else does, it will take injury or major meltdown to alter our plans.

The Fangraphs article seemed to question the approach of not really having much MLB-tested SP depth in the organization.  Some of the comments discussed the need for additional SP during the course of the season.  I wanted to find out how often each team needed to use a pitcher (or several) beyond their top five.  Using baseballreference.com, I considered a team's "core rotation" to be the five pitchers with the most GS.  After that, I just counted the number of other GS for pitchers outside of these five.

Obviously, not all of my rotations would be considered by true fans of the team as their 'A' rotation, but we're just looking at the number of pitchers needed beyond the five most frequent starters.  The complete results are posted here.

There were some interesting findings.  First, the average for all teams was about 28 games (17.5%).  The Rays were pretty solid last year.  They only need 8 additional starts (5%) beyond their core rotation.  By contrast, the Nats had 54 (33%) games started outside of their core.  We all know which team was more competitive. 

Competitiveness does seem to be a factor.  I averaged the six divisions.  The first place team in each division needs additional starters about 13% of the time; second place was 14.8%; third place was 15.4%; fourth was 20.9% and fifth was 22.4%.  Of course, there's a bit of a chicken and egg argument here.  Do the cellar-dwellers use extra starters because they're crummy and are looking for answers or does the need for extra starters turn a team's season into a Pirates-esque scavenger hunt for starters?  My guess is it's a little bit of both. 

In conclusion, if you hope for your team to finish in 1st or 2nd place (which I do!), it's best if you assume that you'll need 20-25 games started outside of your core rotation.  Right now, the Tigers don't have a strong contingency plan (Andy Oliver, I'm pointing at you), but I don't feel that many other teams do either.  As it stands, I think Andy Oliver can perhaps be as good as anything we might add to our team as a backup plan. 

With the Cliff Lee signing in Philly, it creates a few interesting story lines that may end up affecting our Tigers.  Philly now has a silly-deep rotation where a former future ace (yes, that makes sense in my head), in Cole Hamels is now their #4 starter behind two aces in Halladay and Lee and a former ace in Oswalt. 

First, Philly seems intent on dealing Blanton (since they have Kyle Kendrick to round out the rotation).  Blanton is owed about 17.5M through 2012.  It's not a little contract, but it's certainly in line with what other pitchers of his caliber have gotten of late.  I haven't really heard what the asking price is on Blanton, but he's probably worth kicking the tires on if you are the Tigers front office.  He's not spectacular by any means, but he's a pretty known quantity.  You're getting a pitcher who will toss up a WHIP of about 1.35 or so and log 180+ innings for the team.  He's certainly an upgrade over Armando Galaragga and it's better than we can ASSUME we'll get from Phil Coke.  Heck, it might be better than we get from Rick Porcello.  The contract, being 2 years, would be something worth considering.  It allows us to have four spots in our rotation in place for two years.  One hole could be filled this year with either Galaragga or Coke.  Next year, Oliver and Turner probably both become viable candidates.  Blanton would be gone after 2013 when, hopefully, both Oliver and Turner are in the rotation.  I'd rather Blanton's remaining contract expired after 2011, but I think we should check him out.

Second, I've read that Philly might also be interested in moving Ibanez's contract.  I'm not sure about whether or not this is true.  Their outfield already has one question mark in it with the departure of Werth.  I'm not sure they're looking to add another vacancy next to Victorino.  Ibanez is owed about 11M for the 2011 season; his contract expires after this season.  Until 2010, Ibanez was certainly a middle of the order bat, regularly putting up an OPS of .830 or more and consistently logging 600+ PA.  2010 was an off-year for Ibanez and, given his age, might be the first year of decline.  Ibanez has historically taken good care of himself and has aged better than most players.  I would say that he's probably comparable to Maggs in the risk of decline. 

As for other Maggs comparisons, he's less of an injury risk than Maggs.  His 11.5M is probably more than Maggs will command in 2010, but Ibanez would be a 1-year commitment instead of the 2 or more that Maggs is seeking.  Maggs is probably a better fit for #3 on this team because his OBP is typically higher than Ibanez, but if Ibanez can bounce back to his pre-2010 production, he might offer higher production.

I don't know what Philly is looking for in trade.  Their 2011 team seems pretty locked into place.  Their rotation seems set for a few years.  Howard will be at 1B forever; Utley at 2B until 2014, and Polanco at 3B until at least 2013.  Rollins will be a free agent after 2012, so they may be looking for a SS prospect.  Ruiz is young and pretty solid at C.  I would guess that bullpen might be a priority.  And if they're trading Ibanez, they're probably looking for young, cheap, MLB-ready OF.  It looks like we might be decent trade partners for the Phillies.  We have some young, cheap, bullpen depth (although we'd have to replace them on our own roster) in Perry, Zumaya, and Weinhardt.  We also have some young, cheap, and MLB-ready OF talent in Wells, Boesch, Raburn, and perhaps Andy Dirks.  It should also be noted that Philly has a MLB-ready prospect in Dominic Brown that, until recently, was way more highly regarded than any of our guys.  It looks like Brown will get one of the OF spots for 2011, but they may be looking for options and they'll need to fill two spots if they deal Ibanez.  

Well, looks like we have a shiney new toy...let's play with it.  If I get to play Leyland for a moment, here's my lineup, rotation, and roster fill.  Let's see how we compare. 

Starting Lineup *

CF - Austin Jackson
2B - Will Rhymes
RF - Ryan Raburn (waiting on help...)
1B - Miguel Cabrera
DH - Victor Martinez**
LF - Casper Wells / Brennan Boesch
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Brandon Inge
C - Alex Avila

*vs. RHP.  I think that Avila sits vs. LHP, VMart at C, and a bench player gets time (ex...Santiago at SS, Peralta at DH).  You might also platoon Sizemore and Rhymes vs. LHP/RHP.

**Ultimately, I'd much rather see VMart at #3, but I don't think Raburn provides enough protection at #5. 

Bench:

2B - Scott Sizemore
SS/3B - Ramon Santiago
OF - Casper Wells / Brennan Boesch
UT - Don Kelly
DL - Carlos Guillen (half season at least)

Rotation:

1 - Verlander
2 - Scherzer
3 - Porcello
4 - Coke
5 - Galarraga

Bullpen:

Miner
Weinhardt
Schlereth
Zumaya
Perry
Benoit
Valverde


Obviously, this isn't a team that's going to win the AL Central (although I like our chances a lot better than a week ago).  We still have glaring needs at #3, on defense, in the starting rotation (specifically #3 & 4), and in the front of our bullpen. (It was difficult for me to put the first 3 names in our bullpen, but I lacked choices otherwise.) 

While the availability of Dan Uggla is pretty widely known by now, I read the other day that Jose Reyes is available.  I'm not a proponent for either trade, but I'm wondering which player the BYB nation thinks would be a better addition.  Their contract situations are very similar.  Uggla has a year left and expects about 10M in arbitration.  Reyes just had his option picked up and is due 11M in 2011. 

Reyes plays SS, but we just signed a guy named Peralta under the presumption of him playing SS for two years.  Uggla plays 2B, but he have two in-house candidates in Sizemore and Rhymes that may very well be able to play 2B for the next two years.

The two bring very different things to the table.  Uggla can bash, but carries a concrete glove with him into the field.  Reyes is much more of a table setter.  We know he can steal bags and has a pretty good glove.  Uggla has been a consistent player in what he does.  Reyes has shown flashes of super-stardom, but given hints of just being a quick guy that sometimes has trouble getting on base.  

I'm assuming that the Marlins might be interested in Sizemore or Rhymes as part of the Uggla trade.  The Mets, however, might not be interested in Peralta at all.  What does everyone think?  It's the off-season, so what better time than now to speculate about two trades that probably won't happen?

So it's getting to be that time of year when the fans that haven't tuned out are dreaming of 2011.  The threads these days are full of suggestions about who to ditch and who to keep.  I just don't understand the idea of housecleaning players for nothing.  Guillen and Zumaya are a couple of the players that seem to be under the gun lately:

Carlos Guillen:  Our old friend Carlos is not a stranger to the DL.  Each year, we are frustrated that he can't stay healthy so it feels like the masses are saying we should cut him.  I really don't see the point in letting him go.  He's shown on a consistent basis that he's good for about 300 AB's.  He's a productive hitter, and he's passable at 2B and DH.  The reason for letting him go seems to be that he gets injured a lot, and it doesn't make sense to me.  If we can't get 500 productive AB's, then we don't want any?  Does this translate to any other areas of life (Oh, you want to give me $30...well, if you're not going to give me $50, then I don't want any.)  He's under contract for 2011...I think it's about 13M.  Nobody will trade anything for him with that contract unless the Tigers eat most of if. 

The ONLY reason that seems plausible to me is that his presence blocks the development of another player (and I guess it must be Scott Sizemore or Will Rhymes).  I can buy this, but I think that if you have a guaranteed productive bat at 2B in a contending season (which we all agree that 2011 will be), you play him.  <Insert your favorite other 2B here> can play 2B when Guillen is injured or in Toledo.  I'm sure that they'll still get 300 major league AB's for an injured Guillen.

Joel Zumaya:  See the above case for most of my argument here.  Sure, we're probably not going to get more than 50 innings from him, but we might.  In any case, they should prove to be a pretty effective 50 innings for about 1M or less. I'll take it. 

The last time I checked, our 40-man roster wasn't busting with quality players.  Our farm system may have some good prospects, but I think 2010 proved that it's not stocked to the level that we need to get rid of proven MLB options if favor of prospect development. (And I don't want to be a Pirates fan anyhow).

I'm all for purging players that are pending free agents if we can upgrade.  I'm a fan and I have a spot in my heart for Damon, Inge, Maggs, and Laird (well, check that on Gerald).  But, these guys are free agents.  They're won't be cheap and we're not stuck paying them anyhow.  If we can upgrade, than so be it...let 'em walk.  Just quit suggesting that we cut ties with productive players that we have already agreed to pay.

I'll admit that I feel about as bleak as the rest of you right now.  This team has not been good lately.  They were not playing well before "the game" where we lost both Maggs and Guillen.  They have played even worse since.  Recent lineups have looked like somehow the Mud Hens won a bet with the parent team and got to borrow Miguel Cabrera for a week. So, where is that optimism I mentioned in the headline?  You'll have to check below the jump to find out!

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