SBNation.com User Blog: morecasspi

Assists and Wins

morecasspi — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 05:44:04 -0000

I am in the middle of a senior project and I am lucky enough to be able to use basketball stats as part of my analysis. I have been looking into how regression models work and some of the data I have been checking have been very interesting. I started with point differential as the independent variable and wins as the dependent variable from a two year sample, and as expected the correlation was very high and the models all fit extremely well.

In an effort to find data that did not work very well I tried team assists as the independent variable and season wins as the dependent variable. The data came out very messy.

In the end the model for Least-Squared Regression was:

Season Wins=-24.93+3.067(Team Assists)

The R-squared of the model was .102. To put that is prospective 0 means no correlation, or completely random. If the R-squared is below .5 the model generally is not used. Basically the model is useless though it has a small positive correlation. It should also be noted that the Kernel Regression did not fit any better, but that is a little too much detail to explain and have you all still be reading.

What this means for the Kings. Well, in the NBA team assists do not equate to wins. The Kings are dead last in team assists, but surprisingly that is not as big of an issue as it seems at first glance.

I thought this was very interesting and thought it would be a good idea to share what I found with some other basketball fans. If anyone has any ideas onto why I would love to hear your feed back.

In an effort to find data that did not work very well I tried team assists as the independent variable and season wins as the dependent variable. The data came out very messy.

In the end the model for Least-Squared Regression was:

Season Wins=-24.93+3.067(Team Assists)

I thought this was very interesting and thought it would be a good idea to share what I found with some other basketball fans. If anyone has any ideas onto why I would love to hear your feed back.

Understanding the NBA Lottery

morecasspi — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 19:42:56 -0000

The lottery is obviously all about probability, and this is what confuses the casual fan. While the team with the worst record has the highest chance to win at 25%, but that also means that the field has a 75% chance of winning the number one pick. History agrees with this (since 1994 when the modern lottery was in place) the team with the worst record has only won only 2 out of 16 times or 12.5%.

This may seem small, but remember the sample size and also everything has variability. For example, the probability of the worst team only winning the lottery 2 out of 16 times is high about at about 13.4% chance whereas what you would expect (4 out of the 16) is only a 22.5% chance. If you want to know how I got that just ask below and I will try my best to explain it.

So for all those NBA Lottery conspiracy people about the draft, the numbers show that Stern is not messing with the ~~balls~~ odds of each team.

As we all know last year the Kings had the worst record and it seemed we were destined to have Blake Griffin, but the ping pong balls said else wise. But here is a fun facts about having the worst record it is more likely to pick 4th than 1st. This brings up the question of why?

It is easy to understand that if the worst team has a 250 combination out of 1000, that the team will win 25% of the time. Here is were the ~~nerdiest~~ weirdness sets in. The chances the team picks 2nd is about 21.5%, 3rd 17.8, and then the league has a rule that the worst record can pick no later than 4th so the probability of picking 4th is the percentages of 4th through 14th added up. The sum of 4 through 14 is 35.7%. Alternatively you could just do 1 minus the percentage of picking 1-3 (100-25-21.5-17.8= if you wanted the numbers).

Basically if you are a betting man on what pick the Nets will get go with 4th, the numbers are on your side. I hope that shows why ~~we where stuck with~~ got the 4th pick last year (someone that looks like this guy).

via media.commercialappeal.com

Now on to the Kings and their draft pick this year. First I will talk about expected value. Expected value is exactly what it sounds like; the most likely event to happen. Basically if you simed this years draft a 10 million times this would be the each team's average draft position. The Kings are at 3.407 that may be weird, but let me put it in prospective.

Nets 2.642 - remember the picking 4th thing...

T-Wolves- 2.979- the numbers say they will pick 3rd hopefully not taking another point guard

Kings- 3.407 (making Favors or Cousins very realistic)

Golden State and the Wizards- about 4.427 (for each of them because the tie in record)

That ~~tanking~~ slump at the end of the year gave the Kings an expected whole pick higher than what they would have had. Well less since the averages of 3-5 would all be averaged, so about .6 of a pick higher. It makes the losses a little easier.

Lastly just some fun with percentages. 46.9% the Kings pick either 1,2,3 and a 96% chance of landing a 5 or better (meaning lower pick).

Hope you understand the lottery a little better and why it is so unpredictable. I will leave who to pick to Petrie. If the Kings pick 6th, the Raptors win the lottery, the T-Wolves don't pick 3rd, and the Nets win instead of getting the 4th pick and you lose lots of money, don't hate me too much I just go by the numbers.

consistency

morecasspi — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 00:55:26 -0000

Consistency is something that has plagued the Kings all season. Now with some players it is a matter of playing time to be consistent, but if the coach doesn't think the player is going to preform then consistent minutes will not be given.

To get my information for the players below I took out games they did not play and took the standard deviation of their points per game. The lower the deviation is the better because on any given night the coach knows about how many points the player will score. With a higher deviation the player will go through more up and down points through out the season.

Here are the main Kings this season (name/scoring average/deviation):

Evans 20.3 6.97
Beno 12.3 6.04

Omri 11.6 5.94
Hawes 10.4 6.13

Greene 8.6 7.2

Here are other players for refence

Lebron 30 8.25

Billups 19.7 8.3

JR Smith 15 7.1

(Mr. Consistency) Duncan 18 6.2

Curry 16 8

What does this all mean. Lebron has a high deviation, but he averages so many points and it is amazing it is that his deviation is so low. Amazingly Beno and Omri can't really be seperated on paper, even with Omri's rookie struggles (only to this point) he is still doing well.

Evans can put another tally by his name for ROY because he averages more points and scores at a more consistent rate than Curry.

Greene looks the worst on these numbers, yes playing time factors, but any given night there is no telling how he will perform. Hence the chicken and egg debate will rage he would be consistent with more playing time vs proving consistency then receiving extra PT.

Obviously this is only select data, and there needs to be a lot more data to draw more conclusive results. Just thought I would share what I found in these limited results.

Money and Kevin Martin

morecasspi — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 00:11:26 -0000

First off sorry if the information isn't very well organized, this is my first time making a fan post.

To start I took all the NBA players and the money they make this season. There are about 450 player being paid by NBA teams this year. Some are not playing, but still being paid and some are overseas.

the Median= 2.9 million and that is about the price to pay for Kris Humphries

the Mean=4.7 million and that is about the price for Zaza Pachulia (note Durant is paid about that also but that is rookie salary grade and not a contract he signed)

Now to go to Kevin Martin, He makes 9.7 million and that makes him the 68th (or top 15%) highest player in the league. I would say that this is a very reasonable contract. For the money he makes he is suppose to be around the top 65 player in the league. I think he is in that range and therefore earning his contract. If you can think of a list of 64 players that are better please put it below.

To put it in prospective the 5 other players in his pay range are Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Mike Miller, Gerald Wallace, and Kirk Hinrich.

Player (name) TS%|points per 36\rebounds per 36\assists per 36| per (Note all numbers from only this season)

Danny Granger .558| 18.8\5.8\2.1|18.8
Mike Dunleavy .527| 17.2\5.7\2.2| 13.2
Mike Miller .692|11.4\4.8\3.6|13.9
K-Mart .531|20.1\4.4\3.0|17.3
Gerald Wallace .583|15.9\9.4\1.6|18.6
Kirk Hinrich .519|14.4\3.6\6.3|10.3

Those numbers are from a down year by K-Mart, yet still manages to put up solid numbers. K-Mart compares well with the other players in his pay range during a down season. I realize I am slurping K-Mart right now, but it will be nearly impossible to sign a player for cheaper that does the things he is capable of. Reasonable contracts are hard to come by in the NBA (T-Mac, Gilbert fires a shot here too), and for what is expected of Martin money wise he is producing.

First off sorry if the information isn't very well organized, this is my first time making a fan post.

the Median= 2.9 million and that is about the price to pay for Kris Humphries

the Mean=4.7 million and that is about the price for Zaza Pachulia (note Durant is paid about that also but that is rookie salary grade and not a contract he signed)

To put it in prospective the 5 other players in his pay range are Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Mike Miller, Gerald Wallace, and Kirk Hinrich.

Player (name) TS%|points per 36\rebounds per 36\assists per 36| per (Note all numbers from only this season)

Danny Granger .558| 18.8\5.8\2.1|18.8
Mike Dunleavy .527| 17.2\5.7\2.2| 13.2
Mike Miller .692|11.4\4.8\3.6|13.9
K-Mart .531|20.1\4.4\3.0|17.3
Gerald Wallace .583|15.9\9.4\1.6|18.6
Kirk Hinrich .519|14.4\3.6\6.3|10.3

Respect for the Kings...or lack of

morecasspi — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 03:50:02 -0000

Respect for the Kings...or lack of

Either that or there is a trade on the way that only Amazon knows about