Since we don't have one, and we might as well have one, I figured I would just get it over with and make one. Discuss all the goings-on, what teams should do, what they're not doing, the possible role of prospects in transactions . . .

The Blue Jays have acquired Sergio Santos from the White Sox for Nestor Molina. Santos is a killer pickup, surprise surprise out of the AA regime (can we just, you know, not let these guys trade with anybody already?). He's already devastatingly effective, he's only getting better as he learns how to actually pitch, and he's under team control for a good few years yet. Needless to say, whoa. Congrats Blue Jays fans, you just hit the jackpot.

As for the White Sox, the rebuild is on. Molina obviously is an interesting prospect, and one would presume that the White Sox think of him as a starter first if they were willing to swap him for Santos, a more known quantity in the pen. This might not be the last we hear from the White Sox at the meetings with virtually the entire team up for trade, including two quality starters in Danks and Floyd. Of course, as they apparently asked for both Manny Banuelos and Jesus Montero from the Yankees in a deal to acquire Danks, this all might be much easier said than done . . .

1. Shelby Miller, rhp, Palm Beach Cardinals
2. Matt Harvey, rhp, St. Lucie Mets
3. Hak-Ju Lee, ss, Charlotte Stone Crabs (Rays)
4. Trevor May, rhp, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
5. Alex Colome, rhp, Charlotte Stone Crabs (Rays)
6. Carlos Martinez, rhp, Palm Beach Cardinals
7. Jonathan Singleton, 1b/of, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
8. Matt Szczur, of, Daytona Cubs
9. Jarred Cosart, rhp, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
10. A.J. Jimenez, c, Dunedin Blue Jays
11. Zack Cox, 3b, Palm Beach Cardinals
12. Sebastian Valle    c, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
13. Drew Hutchison, rhp, Dunedin Blue Jays
14. Tyler Thornburg, rhp, Brevard County Manatees (Brewers)
15. Oswaldo Arcia, of, Fort Myers Miracle (Twins)
16. Drew Smyly, lhp, Lakeland Flying Tigers (Tigers)
17. Deck McGuire, rhp, Dunedin Blue Jays
18. Aaron Hicks, of, Fort Myers Miracle (Twins)
19. Brody Colvin, rhp, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
20. Wilmer Flores, ss, St. Lucie Mets

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612437.html

1. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Visalia Rawhide (Diamondbacks)
2. Jedd Gyorko, 3b, Lake Elsinore Storm (Padres)
3. Gary Brown, of, San Jose Giants
4. Zack Wheeler, rhp, San Jose Giants
5. Jonathan Singleton, 1b, Lancaster Jethawks (Astros)
6. Nolan Arenado, 3b, Modesto Nuts (Rockies)
7. Michael Choice, of, Stockton Ports (Athletics)
8. Allen Webster, rhp, Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Dodgers)
9. Chad Bettis, rhp, Modesto Nuts (Rockies)
10. Yasmani Grandal, c, Bakersfield Blaze (Reds)
11. Tommy Joseph, c, San Jose (Giants)
12. Nick Franklin, ss/2b, High Desert (Mariners)
13. Jean Segura, ss, Inland Empire (Angels)
14. Reymond Fuentes, of, Lake Elsinore (Padres)
15. Jose Altuve, 2b, Lancaster (Astros)
16. Matt Davidson, 1b/3b, Visalia (Diamondbacks)
17. Chris Dominguez, 3b, San Jose (Giants)
18. Johnny Hellweg, rhp, Inland Empire (Angels)
19. Chris Owings, ss, Visalia (Diamondbacks)
20. Kent Matthes, of, Modesto (Rockies)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612433.html

Okay, so we were ALL wrong . . .

1. Bryce Harper, of, Hagerstown Suns (Nationals)
2. Manny Machado, ss, Delmarva Shorebirds (Orioles)
3. Jurickson Profar, ss, Hickory Crawdads (Rangers)
4. Jameson Taillon, rhp, West Virginia Power (Pirates)
5. Christian Yelich, of, Greensboro Grasshoppers (Marlins)
6. Jesse Biddle, lhp, Lakewood Blueclaws (Phillies)
7. Marcell Ozuna, of, Greensboro Grasshoppers (Marlins)
8. Brandon Jacobs, of, Greenville Drive (Red Sox)
9. Jonathan Schoop, ss/3b, Delmarva Shorebirds (Orioles)
10. Xander Bogaerts, ss, Greenville Drive (Red Sox)
11. A.J. Cole, rhp, Hagerstown Suns (Nationals)
12. Kyle Parker, of, Asheville Tourists (Rockies)
13. J.T. Realmuto, c, Greensboro Grasshoppers (Marlins)
14. Gary Sanchez, c, Charleston Riverdogs (Yankees)
15. Trayce Thompson, of, Kannapolis Intimidators (White Sox)
16. Bryce Brentz, of, Greenville Drive (Red Sox)
17. Tyler Matzek, lhp, Asheville Tourists (Rockies)
18. Domingo Santana, of, Lakewood Blueclaws (Phillies)/Lexington Legends (Astros)
19. Cody Buckel, rhp, Hickory Crawdads (Rangers)
20. Miles Head, 1b, Greenville Drive (Red Sox)

Link: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612405.html

Hi all,

A couple of days ago, a post concerning an individual's fantasy baseball team ignited a little bit of ill-tempered debate about such posts here. I apologize for not seeing the post sooner and jumping in to cool things down; I try to keep up on all the threads, but sometimes I do miss things (flags and e-mail to bring things to my attention are, as always, appreciated and encouraged). In the course of that thread, a few things were said about Minor League Ball's attitude towards fantasy baseball-oriented posts that need some clarification and correcting. I will do that now, but I will also offer some advice that I would strongly encourage all of you to take to heart.

First, let me be explicitly clear on this. Posts regarding your fantasy baseball teams, which may include questions such as "should I make this trade?", "should I drop player X to pick up one of these 5 players?", "please rank these players for me" or "I have a pick in my draft, I can take one of these guys, who should I take?" (not an exhaustive list, just examples) are permitted and encouraged here. Such questions do generate discussion about the players in question, and discussion is the lifeblood of this site. For those of you who would respond to my point with the notion that John is the "heart" of this site and what he says goes, I wholeheartedly agree, and this is why I will also remind you that John appreciates and encourages such posts. John has lots of people who are interested in his work for fantasy baseball purposes. He gets lots of site traffic from people primarily interested in fantasy baseball, and more attention and interest in John's site means better business for him, which in turn means he's able to produce higher quality products for us all to enjoy. Everybody wins, so regardless of your personal preference, fantasy baseball DOES have a place here.

Second on the list of things I am addressing here is something of an addendum to the first part of my post. While Minor League Ball welcomes fantasy baseball-oriented posts that ask questions about or otherwise discuss your team and its related transactions, it does not welcome fantasy baseball-oriented posts that are concerned with your league, specifically "want ads". There are many forums on the web to solicit for potential new additions to your fantasy league, but Minor League Ball is not one of them. The reason for this policy has nothing to do with fantasy baseball itself, but instead it has been seen in the past that such posts tend to overwhelm player-oriented discussion and that permitting them inevitably ends up in a slippery slope towards an endless stream of spam requests to join a fantasy baseball league. Such posts will be immediately deleted and the offending poster immediately warned. So, don't do this. If you have any questions about what kinds of fantasy baseball-oriented posts are allowed, or more specifically if you are concerned about whether or not your post will be considered permissible, please err on the side of caution and refrain from making such posts until you get clearance from John or myself.  I'd advise to first e-mail me as I tend to have a lot less on my "to-do list" than John does, but John does have the final word. For e-mail addresses, check our profiles (you'll get to mine simply by clicking here or on my name in the byline of this post).

Thirdly, for the sake of our communal peace of mind, I will remind you all that since fantasy baseball-oriented posts are welcome here, attacking those who make such posts for doing so is not acceptable. When you tell people that they or their posts are not welcome here, you are discouraging both traffic and participation. Often, new posters come here for fantasy baseball and stay because we're just that cool - so stay cool.

The final matter I would like to address here is actually directly relevant to those who are interested in posting about fantasy baseball, particularly those individuals who have never made a post here before. To those people, let me say that you are very much encouraged to join and take part in this community, and I would urge you not to be intimidated, as can sometimes be the case in such arenas of discussion. That being said, if you are in need of advice, I would ask you to be mindful of the service this community provides you. None of us were not born with knowledge of minor league baseball players; many members here spend a good amount of time analyzing and researching these players, and it is a passion unto itself to be respected. Many of us are happy to share our thoughts and opinions with those who aren't quite as dedicated, but like most people we don't like the feeling of being treated like your personal free on-demand Jedi Council, either. When you have a question, please practice good manners; say "please" and be sure to personally thank those who respond to you ("thanks in advance" being so passe). If you're asking a LOT of questions and asking frequently, you might find a lot of benefit in becoming a more active participant here. Spamming the community with repeated demands for information isn't just making life more difficult for you, it can disrupt the community and is just plain rude, and it will be treated the same as any other case of spamming.

That's all for now. If you have any questions about any of this, post them in this thread and we'll take care of them. Thanks for reading.

DDJ goes from the Royals to the A's for Vinny Mazzaro and Justin Marks . . .thoughts?

Overall, I think it's a decent deal for the Royals. Not a huge return, but Mazzaro is a major league ready RHP with some upside if he can figure out his secondaries. Eat some innings, transition those young arms in a bit more easily . . .okay, I can buy it. Perhaps this gives the Royals a bit more flexibility to pursue a Greinke trade (not that I'd advise it)?

The background: A few days ago, in response to the deluge of top 20 lists for the Royals and Mariners, I stated that I would do a list on-demand for a team that had not yet received a top 20 treatment in recent times. Humbled Fan asked for the Blue Jays, and seeing as I repeatedly crapped on Blue Jays fans for their mythical $16 million draft budget, I decided that I needed to make amends and do a good deed for them. Of course, this had a side effect: everybody and their mother then realized that nobody had done a Toronto Blue Jays top 20 prospects list, and as one of my role models in life once noted, boom goes the dynamite. So now, instead of treating you all to a bunch of awe-inspiring observations about a team that you haven't read about too much lately, you're getting a list of players that you've already read about like 5 times in the last few days. All I can say is that I'm going to be a man about it and ask you to blame Humbled Fan, which seems entirely reasonable and fair to me. That being said, part of being a man means that I have to live up to my word, so here's my list of the top 20 Blue Jays prospects going into the off-season, complete with comments and a couple of bonus dudes that I felt like writing about. Other people gave some better explanations of just who the players are (I bet you didn't know that Kyle Drabek throws hard, did you?), so I'll link you to TwosEyesForAnEye's list. It's a good post, but he handles his posts a bit differently than I do. I'll be upfront and note that I expect you to already know who I'm talking about, and my comments tend to focus on why I do/don't like Prospect X. As a final note before jumping in, I'll also note that I still don't know what's good for me and therefore I will take requests for ANOTHER team here, to be posted in a new post in several days' time. The criteria is the same as before - find me a team that hasn't been given the top 20 treatment here, I'll select one and I'll go to work. 

General comments on the system: Certainly looking up, just a lot of uncertainty towards the bottom of the list, which is to be expected with a big draft haul. For the moment we don't have big sample sizes so for me, it's a matter of going off of guys who I liked going into the draft and some preliminary findings off of small sample sizes. Drabek is a perfectly legitimate No. 1 prospect, a good example of why you can't freak out too much over the numbers . . .sometimes prospects are just working on different things and it's good to see prospects who understand the big picture and focus on the process rather than the immediate results. You've got a nice blend of safety and upside towards the upper half of this system, with Perez and Sanchez being guys who could see big jumps in the overall prospecting scene next year. Then you've got some lottery tickets in Alvarez, Hechavarria, and Arencibia, players with above-average potential at the major league level but who are more likely to end up as fringe major leaguers or in reserve roles. The second half of the list is, as I said, kind of a crapshoot as we just don't have enough pro data to make strong conclusions; the important thing to me is that I got all the names of guys that I think have a shot at making some noise, in the order in which I like said guys. It's hard not to see this list looking very differently by this time next year; such is life when you inject a ton of amatuer talent in an otherwise relatively barren system. But if you'd like my personal favorite, I'll tell you right now that Griffin Murphy could make a huge jump in the next year. 

Anyways. Time to get to the list!

1) Kyle Drabek, RHP - No complaining about this one; the stuff is well above-average and this kind of makeup always plays at the major league level. He has frontline starter potential, but even if he doesn't quite realize all of it he's going to stay relevant in the major leagues for a long time. In a system full of intriguing guys with questions, Drabek edges ahead of his competition to grab the top spot.

2) Deck McGuire, RHP - I'm not enamored of his upside and I'll admit to clearly preferring Alex Wimmers among 2010 draftees who lack truly killer stuff, but McGuire is a safe bet to make it to the major league team within the next couple of years and make a meaningful contribution. Relatively known quantities like this in a system make it much easier to build for future success.

3) Travis D'arnaud, C - I have to say that it really sucks that D'arnaud got hurt. If he had played a full season with good health, he could have easily been the No. 2 or even the No. 1 prospect in this system. He has the raw tools to be an excellent major league player, but there's a decent chance that he's "only" a solid regular, and I hate seeing minor league catchers missing significant time due to injury, as they already have enough crap to deal with. Still, before the injuries wore him down and finally out, he was showing signs of a major breakout. We'll see where he goes from here.

4) Zach Stewart, RHP - Baseball America aside, I like Stewart. Sinkerballers are to pitchers as catchers are to position players - they take longer to develop and improvements in their games don't always show up immediately in the numbers. It wouldn't shock me if Stewart pitched better in the majors next year (were the Jays so inclined) than he did this year in NH. I don't think he has elite level upside, but I think he'll provide a number of years of very respectable value in one capacity or another. If the Jays decide they like him more in the pen, that's just fine - his stuff would play even better there.

5) Anthony Gose, OF - Some may describe this as "aggressive", but I don't think this way at all, and I'll explain why. The raw tools are just plain awesome - it's rare that you get a player with this many plus grades, as Gose gets plus-if-not-better marks for defensive instincts, range, and speed. But the bat isn't too shabby either, as Gose showed a clear uptick in power production and drew more walks this year despite moving to the Florida State League. He's going to need some time to refine his overall approach and hopefully the Jays recognize that, but this is a player who is clearly moving in the right direction to be an above-average major league regular. All Star potential and a floor that's better than you might initially think, sign me up.

6) Jacob Marisnick, OF - He was super raw coming out of high school and looked great in the GCL this year, so he gets a pass for that forgettable Midwest League stint. The raw potential to be an impact major leaguer is here and he's made some major strides in the last year, but there's just a bit too much bust potential here still for me to go higher than this for the moment. Next year is especially important for Marisnick - he could become one of the better prospects in all of baeball, or he could be just barely holding on to a spot in the top 20 if he can't turn the tools into production in a full season league. He's below Gose for me because Gose has gotten the job done in full season ball and because Gose offers more with the glove. 

7) Carlos Perez, C -  This guy seems to be all the rage right now, and I've seen him as high as No. 2 in some rankings. I can respect that point of view, I just don't agree with it; this system is too good for a talented-but-still-unseasoned catcher in the short-season leagues to rate that highly. Full season leagues are an entirely different animal, especially so for a catcher who has to endure a much more rigorous schedule. I'm certainly excited about the upside here, and I think his ranking reflects that, but I'm not thinking twice about taking any of the guys ahead of Perez on this list before I take him.

8) Aaron Sanchez, RHP - I'll be totally upfront in saying that I love Aaron Sanchez. Some of you might not have him this high, but he's got the raw talent to be an excellent major league pitcher. Let's start off with a fastball that would already get a good major league grade, and add in a generous heaping of projection that could bump his fastball into the elite range. Then let's add a nice breaking ball into the equation, and we're talking about a big time power arm. He's a bit raw so the Jays would definitely benefit from a conservative track to let the command come along and to let projection take its natural course, but I'm high on Sanchez.

9) Eric Thames, OF - I like Thames but don't love him. In terms of raw production there's little to complain about, as he's hit extremely well as a pro, and I think the raw tools are there for that to continue forward. That being said, there's a couple of red flags for me: he's limited defensively, and he doesn't hit left-handed pitching very well. I'll also be interested to see how his average holds up at higher levels. I think he'll be a useful piece, but I'm not yet sure as to whether it will be as the new Raul Ibanez or as "just" a quality bench player. Players like Thames are among the trickiest for me to assess - on the one hand you want to recognize the value that a relatively safe bat like this can provide, but at the same time it's just not very wise to get too excited - after all, the reasonable upside estimate here is league average platoon left fielder.

10) Asher Wojciechowski, RHP - I am pretty skeptical that Woj is really a starter in the long-term, as I think his stuff just plays better as a late-inning relief type. Nonetheless, I would be completely okay with that, and I do think that he's raw enough to the point where having him start for a couple of years to develop his repertoire is a worthwhile venture. The fastball velocity is excellent and the breaking ball is good too, so there's clearly impact potential here, and I'll be very interested to see where his first full pro season will take him.

11) Henderson Alvarez, RHP - Alvarez is one of those players who confuses me. The raw stuff is quite good, but I'm always a bit concerned about "throwers" who don't miss bats in the lower minors. The majority of players in the low minors can't deal with consistent low-mid 90s fastballs backed up by even fringe secondaries, and when a pitcher gets hit like Alvarez did this year, concern is warranted. Still, he's a relatively inexperienced pitcher who has time to improve, and there's a degree of safety associated with him that players who rate below him in the Jays system don't quite have. And if nothing else, he's throwing strikes, and that's something you can build on even if the end result doesn't necessarily result in an ace.

12) Adeiny Hechavarria, SS - I have very mixed feelings about Hechavarria. Legitimate shortstops who project to the major league level are the rarest of commodities, and Hechavarria fits that profile. The problem is that I just don't buy the bat at all. While he is relatively inexperienced, he hasn't yet shown even the slightest trace of secondary skills that project to being an average starting player in the major leagues. He still has time to grow as a player, but right now I feel more comfortable projecting him as a utility player who may surprise. When we're talking about a player who has legitimate major league tools to play shortstop at this point of the list, that to me just emphasizes how strong this system is.

13) J.P. Arencibia, C - I'm sure this one will catch some flak, but I'm okay with that. No doubt Arencibia made progress this year as a player, but to me that just raised him from "AAAA player" to "most likely a respectable major league backup". Lost in his offensive explosion this year is that he did the bulk of his damage in a six week span, and while production is production, it just emphaizes the fact that Arencibia is an extremely streaky player. Guys like this drive teams nuts when they're slotted in as regulars. I think he's a major league player in the end, but I see him more as a guy who can play a few times a week as a quality backup at catcher and first base, with the raw power to take advantage of pitchers who make mistakes against a player they're not familiar with. That's a sneaky-good contributor in the making. 

14) Griffin Murphy, LHP - I don't get why this guy doesn't get more love. High 80s fastball from the left side that touches 93 MPH? The makings of excellent command? Good secondaries? Room to fill out? Try all of the above. I thought he was a steal for the Jays, even if they had to wait a while to get him signed up. Maybe other people forgot about him due to the late sign, maybe people just built their lists off of other lists that they saw, I don't know. All I know is that Murphy's a guy to keep an eye on, and I didn't forget about him.

15) Brad Emaus, 2B/3B - I have no clue where this guy is going to play, but he brings a respectable bat with good secondary skills to the table. If he keeps hitting, he's going to earn himself a chance somewhere on a major league field. The upside isn't as pronounced as it is with many of the other players in this system because he's got to answer the question of where he's going to play on the field, but he gets credit where credit is due.

16) Noah Syndergaard, RHP - I tend to be a bit wary of preps who see a late jump in their stuff as the draft approaches, but the upside here is very attractive. I wouldn't put him ahead of Murphy because the raw stuff isn't that much better and Murphy has an actual three pitch mix and some polish, but Syndergaard is a good name to watch. If he can keep his velocity bump from last draft season and show off that breaker, he could certainly post some saber-friendly strikeout numbers. On the other hand, he's also rather risky for me, so I think this placement reflects both the good and the bad.

17) Chad Jenkins, RHP - I guess Jenkins has a higher floor than a number of the players on this list, but there's just nothing here that makes me think he's more than a fringy starter at the major league level. Having had college experience to put his stuff together, it was pretty disconcerting to see him get hit up so much this year, crappy defense or not. Maybe he plays up into a No. 4 starter, but considering we haven't even seen him against Double A competition yet even that is a gamble for me. Guys like this often see their peripherals go down the drain once they hit AA. For the moment, I'm going to take caution on a guy who isn't going to be missed if he doesn't make it and won't distinguish himself if he does. I think I'm being relatively kind in giving him this much slack, but I suppose he is only one year out of school.

18) Dickie Thon Jr., SS - He might not end up at shortstop, but even the possibility of playing there gets him some notice, and I'm a big fan of bloodlines and of Puerto Rican prospects (who always seem to be at least a tad undervalued). I can't put him any higher than this until we see how he really stacks up against the competition and until we have a better feel for where he's going to slot defensively, but the boy's got some tools and that's something we can work with.

19) Kellen Sweeney, 3B - I really like Sweeney's bat and it's great to see a kid from a cold weather background with such a good feel for the zone early in his career. The reason he's here is because I want to see more on his defense and power development. It's not lost on me that his brother showed a great early feel for hitting but with minimal later development, and I don't believe that Kellen will provide as much defensive value as Ryan. I'd expect Sweeney to rate a bit higher than this by this time next year, but until we see a bit more out of him, this is a fine position for him to come in at.

20) Drew Hutchison, RHP - Hutchison isn't a big upside guy, but guys who are skilled enough at throwing strikes and changing speeds to put up good looking numbers are worth a look, and they're worth a bit more than that when they're still inexperienced. He's going to have to add a bit more oomph and keep up the good work to project as any more than a mid-rotation starter, but he's earned my attention for all the right reasons so far.

20) Justin Nicolino, LHP - This guy is a project, but I'm favorable to a lefty with a feel for a changeup and a good chance of adding on at least a little velocity. Nicolino has been watched by scouts for a while now so there might be a little "buyer fatigue" on him, and if the Jays put him on a slow development track I think they might just have themselves a respectable southpaw option a few years down the road. Patience needed here. In a lot of ways, he's kind of similar to a LH version of Hutchison, save that Hutchison has some actual pro performance under his belt. 

21) Marcus Knecht, OF - Project player who will be 3.5 months from turning 21 at the start of the season, and one with iffy defensive value at the bottom of the spectrum. The raw tools to be a solid everyday player are here, but guys like this are among my least favorite types of prospects - they're very risky, and even if you win the gamble, you still end up with a bat-only defensive liability.

The next slew of guys on would include OF Moises Sierra (needs to get healthy with bat in tow), 3B Christopher Hawkins (awesome tools, just a major project), C A.J. Jimenez (catchers with plate discipline this bad are persona non grata for me), and a variety of upper level fringy control artists who might eat some innings in the majors here and there.

So for those of you still reading, the overall list is:

1. Kyle Drabek, RHP
2. Deck McGuire, RHP
3. Travis D'arnaud, C
4. Zach Stewart, RHP
5. Anthony Gose, OF
6. Jacob Marisnick, OF
7. Carlos Perez, C
8. Aaron Sanchez, RHP
9. Eric Thames, OF
10. Asher Wojciechowski, RHP
11. Henderson Alvarez, RHP
12. Adeinys Hechavarria, SS
13. J.P. Arencibia, C
14. Griffin Murphy, LHP
15. Brad Emaus, 2B/3B
16. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
17. Chad Jenkins, RHP
18. Dickie Thon, Jr., SS
19. Kellen Sweeney, 3B
20. Drew Hutchinson, RHP
21. Justin Nicolino, LHP
22. Marcus Knecht, OF

1. Matt Moore, lhp, Charlotte Stone Crabs (Rays)
2. Chris Archer, rhp, Daytona Cubs
3. Jacob Turner, rhp, Lakeland Flying Tigers
4. Dellin Betances, rhp, Tampa Yankees
5. Travis D'Arnaud, c, Dunedin Blue Jays
6. Tony Sanchez, c, Bradenton Pirates
7. Brett Jackson, of, Daytona Cubs
8. Anthony Gose, of, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)/ Dunedin Blue Jays
9. Trevor May, rhp, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
10. Wilmer Flores, ss, St. Lucie Mets
11. Adieny Hechavarria, ss, Dunedin Blue Jays
12. Henderson Alvarez, rhp, Dunedin Blue Jays
13. Adam Warren, rhp, Tampa Yankees
14. Liam Hendriks, rhp, Fort Myers Miracle (Twins)
15. Joe Cruz, rhp, Charlotte Stone Crabs (Rays)
16. Diego Moreno, rhp, Bradenton Marauders (Pirates)
17. Francisco Martinez, 3b, Lakeland Tigers
18. Jhan Marinez, rhp, Jupiter Hammerheads (Marlins)
19. Melky Mesa, of, Tampa Yankees
20. Andrew Brackman, rhp, Tampa Yankees

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610749.html

1. Mike Trout, of, Cedar Rapids Kernels (Angels)
2. Shelby Miller, rhp, Quad Cities River Bandits (Cardinals)
3. Wil Myers, c, Burlington Bees (Royals)
4. Jacob Turner, rhp, West Michigan Whitecaps (Tigers)
5. Aaron Hicks, of, Beloit Snappers (Twins)
6. Nick Franklin, ss/2b, Clinton LumberKings (Mariners)
7. Trey McNutt, rhp, Peoria Chiefs (Cubs)
8. Jake Odorizzi, rhp, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Brewers)
9. Matt Davidson, 3b, South Bend Silver Hawks (Diamondbacks)
10. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Cedar Rapids (Angels)/South Bend (Diamondbacks)
11. Allen Webster, rhp, Great Lakes Loons (Dodgers)
12. Jean Segura, 2b, Cedar Rapids Kernels (Angels)
13. Hak-Ju Lee, ss, Peoria Chiefs (Cubs)
14. Fabio Martinez, rhp, Cedar Rapids Kernels (Angels)
15. Rubby de la Rosa, rhp, Great Lakes Loons (Dodgers)
16. Alex Colome, rhp, Bowling Green Hot Rods (Rays)
17. Chris Owings, ss, South Bend Silver Hawks (Diamondbacks)
18. Jerry Sands, 1b/of, Great Lakes Loons (Dodgers)
19. Matt Lollis, rhp, Fort Wayne TinCaps (Padres)
20. Chad Jenkins, rhp, Lansing Lugnuts (Blue Jays)

1. Gary Sanchez, c, Yankees
2. Miguel Sano, 3b/ss, Twins
3. Justin O'Conner, c, Rays
4. Jake Marisnick, of, Blue Jays
5. Matt Lipka, ss, Braves
6. Juan Urbina, lhp, Mets
7. Jesse Biddle, lhp, Phillies
8. Aaron Altherr, of, Phillies
9. Max Kepler, of, Twins
10. Cito Culver, ss, Yankees
11. Luke Bailey, c, Rays
12. Kellen Sweeney, 3b, Blue Jays
13. Ramon Flores, 1b/of, Yankees
14. K.C. Hobson, 1b, Blue Jays
15. Bruce Rondon, rhp, Tigers
16. Keury de la Cruz, of, Red Sox
17. Christopher Hawkins, 3b, Blue Jays
18. Ryan Brett, 2b, Rays
19. Henry Ramos, of, Red Sox
20. Dixon Machado, ss, Tigers

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610710.html

Lack of a daily thread didn't give me a place to put this, but worth talking about. Anthony Rendon injured his leg yesterday and was carted off the field. Aaron Fitt of Baseball America reports that Rendon has multiple fractures in his ankle and foot, and will miss the rest of the summer. Given the severity of the injury, I'm guessing he'll be out a while longer than that.

Still your #1 guy heading into next year? Probably as long as he can still hit, but I wonder how this might affect him defensively, and he wasn't exactly fleet of foot to begin with.

As we're in the sleepiest sports day of the year, I thought I might throw this out there. I'm wondering who out there subscribes to MiLB.tv. The game selection isn't spectacular, but you get archives, and the ability to see some real game tape on guys in the lower minors. The price isn't too excessive, only $7 bucks to try it out for a month. On the downside, you have to watch in Windows Media Player. Don't get me wrong, I actually find this preferable to the monstrosity that is MLB.TV on a computer (utterly unwatchable unless you stream it to another device, IMO), but it's still something to keep in mind. Now, if I could get this streamed to my TV like MLB.TV, I would be all over it . . .but as it is, I'm on the fence. Frankly I'm just trying to absorb as much baseball as possible as I try to instill in myself the nuts-and-bolts of scouting, so getting to see lots of minor league games for less than the cost of a decent seat to a game is tempting. So who out there has a subscription?

Posted for your enjoyment . . .batting practice is now over, and Frankie Piliere tweeted that he was most impressed by "Hosmer, Alonso, Moustakas, Brown, Trout, Lawrie, Romine".

Starting lineups for the teams this evening, ruthlessly stolen from Baseball America:

World Team

2b Brett Lawrie
ss Ozzie Martinez
1b Yonder Alonso
3b Alex Liddi
lf Carlos Peguero
rf Wilkin Ramirez
c Wilin Rosario
cf Gorkys Hernandez
dh Francisco Peguero

Starting Pitcher: Simon Castro

U.S. Team
lf Desmond Jennings
ss Dee Gordon
3b Mike Moustakas
rf Domonic Brown
dh Eric Hosmer
c Hank Conger
cf Brett Jackson
1b Logan Morrison (well, I guess that's why he wasn't in Iowa City after John drove 250 miles . . .)
2b Drew Cumberland

Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Hellickson

So, who are we most looking forward to seeing, if only for a few blissful ABs or a couple of innings?

You may notice a pattern in this trio of reports.

Continue reading this post »

Before I begin, as always, you can reach me via e-mail at mrkupebaseball@gmail.com. In addition, in a long-overdue and much-anticipated development, I'm now on Twitter. Feel free to follow me at @mr_kupe (I think I got that right), where I'll be providing links to content and quite possibly some at-the-game observations. I'm looking forward to interacting with the prospecting community on Twitter and asking entirely too many questions about various players.

In an effort to produce more easily accessible writing, thus far in my Texas League reports I have tried to stay away from using the traditional 20-80 scouting scale. Nonetheless, the 20-80 scale is a very important aspect of my evaluations, even if it can be frustrating. Still, I've found that while numerical grades can be quite subjective, it's certainly preferable to qualitative statements on the same subjects. As an example, say that I suggest that Player A has a "good" arm and that Player B has an "really good" arm . . .it's hard to figure out what I'm talking about, as I give no basis for comparison. Using the 20-80 scale, though, I can tell you that Player A has a "55" arm (meaning above-average) and that Player B has a "60" arm (also known as plus, or well above-average). As I mentioned before, these grades can still be rather subjective; one man's average is another man's above-average, and so you can get dramatically different grades on a player even using the 20-80 scale . . .but at least you're getting more information than "good arm".

Going back to the subjective nature of numerical grades, there are a couple of things that we can address with some certainty. Batting average, for example, fits in nicely on a 20-80 scale, since we already know that the overall batting average in the major leagues is typically about .260. I prefer to use a range of batting averages, and for this I use John Sickels' suggestion that batting average can fluctuate about 20 points north or south of a player's true skill level. In other words, a 50 grade in "hitting for average" means that the player can be expected to hit between .250 and .270 in a given season. From there I add/subtract ten points for each upwards/downwards movement of 5 points on the scale; for example, a 35 grade in hitting for average means that the player can be expected to hit between .220 and .240 in a given season. The other thing that we can easily grade is a pitcher's velocity . . .but I'm getting ahead of myself here, as grading position players and grading pitchers are two entirely different things, and for the moment I'm just going to focus on position players.

In addition to hitting for average, the rest of the five tools are hitting for power, running speed, fielding ability, and arm strength. I know that some like to break these grades down further, such as grading fielding ability using sub-grades for range and hands in the case of a middle infielder, but I'm not too picky on this. I can keep that in the back of my head and write that in my comments on a player, and there's something to be said for not micromanaging the process. Sometimes a player is just bad at fielding their position and that's that. Of course, the problem with the last four of the five tools is that they're difficult to measure. How do you grade the power of a player who hits 15 doubles and 20 home runs versus the power of a player who hits 40 doubles and 10 home runs? How do you grade arm strength? Do you grade the running speed of a player in the field, out of the batter's box, or running from first to second? Unfortunately, the best answer I have here in most of these cases is: you need to watch baseball, and by this, I mean watch a LOT of baseball. Over time, you'll figure out what "average" looks like, and from there you'll be able to determine what is "above-average" and so on. Does this sound terribly unappealing in a way? It probably should; as I said before, one man's average is another man's above-average. It's this same sort of highly variable evaluation process that makes Hayden Simpson and Cito Culver first round draft picks, for better or for worse. But there is plenty of insight to be gained from even one person's subjective opinion, and if you're like most people, you'll have access to multiple opinions. Put all of those opinions together and, in the spirit of spaghetti forecasting, you'll have a consensus opinion . . .which may or may not prove to be correct. Bummer.

I originally wrote this piece at the behest of t ball, who wanted me to go into some detail on how the 20-80 scale relates to evaluation of Texas League prospects. As the Texas League is a Double A league, there are plenty of players with at least some potential to contribute to a major league team one day, and there are even a few who profile as true impact players in the majors. A good number of the pitchers have at least average major league velocity, and the ones who don't tend to grade out very highly in other areas of the game. In addition, as you may have noticed, many major league teams are jumping their players from Double A straight to the major leagues now, and some players actually do quite well. One of the biggest tricks that your mind can play on you when you're evaluating players at this level is the misbegotten impression that all of these players are far away from the major leagues in terms of skill. Many of them really aren't, even if they might need some time to adjust in the major leagues and show their true level of present skill. In A ball, with regard to hitting for average and power, grades in the 30s are quite common, and anything above that is very impressive. 20 year old Brandon Wood in the 2005 Cal League had a 50 present grade for his power, which sounds unbelievable . . .until you realize that Wood had nearly 100 extra-base hits that year, and even in the Cal League, that is just plain amazing. In AA ball, you see lots of 40s and even 45s, and the very best players will have some grades higher than that. This might surprise you, but it does make sense; if the best players in AA are capable of playing in the major leagues at this very moment, then they almost certainly have some grades that are major league average or above. This gets a little trickier when it comes to pitchers, but again, for the moment I'm just focusing on position players. While I'm not focusing on Triple A here, you'll see a lot of players there with plenty of major league average grades. Again, this makes sense - there are lots of players in AAA who are on the fringes of the major leagues but don't quite have the full package needed to stick in the majors. In other cases, you'll find some prospects who are getting that final preparation before a major league career.

To return to the Texas League, while I've spent a lot of time and text getting to this point, the formula for grading and projecting a player on the 20-80 scale is actually quite simple. You have the five tools: hitting for average, hitting for power, running speed, fielding ability, and arm strength. Put a number next to each of those tools from 20-80 (stick to base 5), take the average of those five numbers, and you get what is known as an OFP (Overall Future Projection), which is a simple snapshot of what kind of prospect you're looking at. I just use the traditional scale, which is:

80-65 - Star
64-50 - Regular
49-40- Fringe
38-39 - Organizational

Sounds simple, right? Well . . .kind of. OFP isn't the be-all and end-all when it comes to prospecting, but I do find it can provide surprisingly useful results even when you wouldn't necessarily expect it to. Just as an example, first basemen (who generally have poor arms and running speed) get put on equal footing with defensive whizzes at shortstop (who grade out quite well even if they cannot hit very well). You may find some variations in the formula, but for myself, the only adjustment I care to make is when it comes to catchers, for whom running speed makes very little difference. I personally prefer to not incorporate running speed into the OFPs of catchers, as it also helps to adjust for the positional value of a catcher, but to each their own.

You'll also notice that OFP doesn't incorporate intangibles or plate discipline, both of which are important to the overall equation for eventual major league success. I handle this by allowing some leeway in the overall OFP score for intangibles, and by including plate discipline issues in the overall writeup of a player. Plate discipline is one of the hardest things to project, because it has much more to do with the mental rather than physical aspects of the game. Nonetheless, I do recognize that in more extreme cases some flexibility is useful here as well. I wouldn't adjust OFP more than a point or two in either direction based on these things, and even then only in rare cases. It's a good formula, and I have no intention of breaking it.

Let's go a little more in-depth by looking at a prospect that I haven't written up yet because I haven't seen him enough, San Antonio SS Drew Cumberland. These are preliminary grades, but I would be surprised if any of them moved more than 5 points in one direction or the other. The focus here is the process rather than the result.

Drew Cumberland, SS, San Antonio Missions
Scouting Grade Report - Preliminary

Hitting for average: 40/60
Hitting for power: 35/40
Running speed: 70/70
Fielding: 45/45
Arm strength: 50/50

OFP: 53

There's a lot of numbers here, so I'm going to go through everything step-by-step to demonstrate the utility of the 20-80 system as a tool for both present and future evaluation. I'll actually begin, however, with the OFP. Cumberland's OFP of 53 might not sound terribly enticing at first, but it actually suggests that he projects to be a major league regular with some margin to spare, which would place him among the upper tier of Texas League prospects. You can actually take the summation of these grades a bit further by looking at the current rather than future grades - Cumberland's OCP (or Overall Current Projection) as a major league player is 48, placing him as a fringe major leaguer and most likely a bench player at present.

By this point you're probably saying: wait a second, Cumberland was just promoted from the California League, and you're telling me that he could be a major league bench player NOW? I am, but that's not really something to get too excited about. Cumberland's present hitting for average grade corresponds to a batting average range between .230 and .250 in the major leagues. This might sound very high for a player just arriving in Double A, but keep in mind that Cumberland hit .365 in Lake Elsinore in the California League this season, and the major league equivalent of this level of performance in San Diego is actually about .270. I don't think he's quite that good of a hitter (you'll have to wait for the writeup to hear why), but as one of the best hitters in the Cal League this year, it's not hard to believe that he's an average Double A hitter, and so everything comes together quite nicely, and I haven't even gotten into the qualitative analysis yet. Cumberland's value as a major league player at this point would be as a no-hit middle infielder with fringe-average defense and good speed on the bases . . .in other words, not a player that most teams would have much use for in the major leagues. And if he was a better player at present, then he probably wouldn't be in Double A. Notice that he only has one tool at present that is better than major league average, so no worries, I'm not suggesting that Cumberland should be up with the major league team next week.

While you can expect the hitting grades to increase over time, the running speed and arm strength grades are relatively stable. You might see a player slow down a bit as he gets older and fills out, but it depends on the body type that we're talking about here. Cumberland doesn't look like a player who will lose much if any speed, and he actually looks to be better physical condition than he was in the video I've seen on him in the past. There are some cases in which a player might add arm strength, but Cumberland most likely won't - his arm strength has remained consistent since high school, and he's getting absolutely everything out of his arm that he can at present.

The last grade I wanted to address is the fielding grade, and the reason for this is because positional changes can have a significant impact on OFP. An exceptionally poor fielding third baseman who becomes a league average defender at first base could see his OFP jump, although there he'll have to contend with other first baseman who might match his fielding and out-do his hitting. Again, the qualitative analysis is very important here - what kinds of things make a poor fielding shortstop a good candidate to move to third base, second base, or center field, for instance? Cumberland is an interesting case, as I'm expecting there to be a vigorous debate about whether or not he should play shortstop at the major league level, and my personal opinion is that he's right about at his ceiling as a fringe-average defender there. In this case, he'd profile as a offensive-minded starting shortstop with passable defense. If he were a second baseman, I'd have no problem projecting him to be a plus defender there, and perhaps even better than that in the mold of a Dustin Pedroia. Now, what does that do to his OFP? Well, if we replace that 45 for fielding ability with a 60, then Cumberland's OFP suddenly jumps to 56. If his defense gets any better than that, or he ends up being a better hitter than currently projected, then we're now talking about a potential above-average regular who could end up in some All Star games. In other words, he's a good looking prospect, as you would expect from a former supplemental round pick who is enjoying a breakthrough season.

Trying to separate your perceptions of a player in the present from your projections of him in the future is insanely tricky work, and the real scouts should receive no small amount of credit for staking their professional futures to such endeavors. I could easily spend ten more pages writing solely about the qualitative analysis aspects of scouting (also known as "so how did you get to that 40 hitting for power grade, anyways?"), but that's an entirely different beast. For now, I'm just going to open the floor to comments and/or questions.

As a final note, you might have noticed that this article only focuses on position players. Don't worry, I didn't forget about those other guys, but I think this piece is long enough. Stay tuned for Part 2, in which I jump into the delightfully crazy world of evaluating pitching prospects on the 20-80 scale.

Here's 3 more player reports from my travels around and about the Texas League. As I've become increasingly aware, there's quite the interest in what I have to offer here, and so I've created an e-mail account for people to contact me privately. While I'd encourage everybody to post baseball-related comments in this thread, I do recognize that there are some people who would rather their presence not be known for whatever reason, and so I'll try to cover my bases and hopefully make everybody happy in the process. So if you have questions, comments, words of appreciation or whatnot, feel free to send them onwards to mrkupebaseball@gmail.com.

Martin Perez, LHP, Frisco Roughriders

Date of Game Scouted: June 28, 2010

Much hyped Rangers top prospect, 19 year old southpaw aggressively promoted to AA. Looks his age, yet to reach full physical maturation. Upper body is behind lower body in development at present, thin with slight shoulders. Lower body is noticeably more developed since last year, as he has put on some good weight in his thighs. Deceptively strong core given his age, will be very important for him in the future. Legitimate 6'0”, size and delivery will inevitably lead to LH Tim Lincecum comparisons. Delivery begins with front leg kick and rotation until leg is past first base, compacts his body and then explodes towards the plate. Delivery not violent but creates exceptional centrifugal force. Consistently delivers the ball from 11 o'clock arm slot. Body not yet totally ready to handle the raw power he's capable of generating, will struggle at times to hold his delivery together as he comes through. In this outing, fastball sat 91-95 MPH, touching 96 in the first inning. Velocity remarkably consistent, displayed some signs of fatigue in fourth and fifth innings as he threw two fastballs at 87 and 88 but showed good composure and recovered to end his outing throwing 92-94 MPH. Fastball not especially lively, gets tracked relatively well and can get drilled if he's not careful. Needs to get more comfortable pitching inside, sometimes overly conscious of leaving the ball out over the plate. Favors the outside half of the plate. Occasionally loses his release point in his delivery, leading to him missing his spots up or just outright leaving the ball over the plate.  Seemed aware of this, overcompensated at times by releasing the ball too late and thus missing low. Would benefit immensely from the addition of a 2 seamer to get himself through ABs. Obviously wants to pitch off his fastball, good sign for the future. Perez' best secondary pitch is his 83-84 MPH changeup, which projects to be a truly outstanding plus-plus pitch. Changeup occasionally comes in a little hard, but it stays down and at its best it shows terrific fade. Perez hides his changeup exceptionally well, leading to some truly awful swings-and-misses by opposing batters, and the muscle memory he shows in using his changeup is rarely seen in major league pitchers, let alone minor leaguers. His third pitch is a curveball, which is inconsistent but very promising. Seems to struggle with getting under it as he delivers the ball, which causes it to miss up and well out of the zone. When he does get under his curveball, however, the result is an absolute hammer with sharp break in the 79-80 MPH range, and so there is no problem projecting it to be another excellent pitch at the major league level as he develops the physical strength to command it. Not afraid to throw his secondaries in any count, another sign of a feel for pitching that is uncommon at this level.

Martin Perez is not a finished product by any means. He's going to have to get stronger, which should improve his command, and he's going to have to work on becoming more consistent with his release point. Above all else, he needs to develop a more effective approach to RH batters. Nonetheless, all of these things seem well within his reach without too much projection. Of course, most prospects at his age are going to attract attention more for their upside than their present ability, and Perez has elite upside that is very rarely seen. He has well above-average velocity from the left side, a changeup that (and I say this in total seriousness) has a chance to be one of the best pitches in all of baseball, and the makings of an excellent breaking ball. Despite the ugly season statistics at AA, Perez has the ceiling of a true No. 1 major league starter.

James Darnell, 3B, San Antonio Missions

2008 secound round pick in his first season of AA. Tremendous physical specimen who stands out among his peers. Oozes athleticism. Narrow waist, huge thighs and defined calves. Lower body strength is apparent. Upper body is more wiry than solid at this point, could probably add 10-15 pounds of muscle in his shoulders and arms if he wants to, has the physical projection that scouts crave. Very intelligent player at the plate, really works counts and rarely swings at bad pitches. Composure is impressive, refuses to press at the plate even when things aren't going his way. Bat speed is solid, has those “quick twitch” reflexes that scouts love to talk about these days, gets his bat into the zone quickly once he commits. Very level swing, geared for line drives rather than home runs. Hits the ball to all fields. Fastball hitter, especially if they're left up in the zone. Squares up fastballs beautifully. Makes a lot of very weak contact against off-speed pitches, as he doesn't adjust his swing well and gets on top of them. Texas League pitchers beating him right now with low fastballs for early strikes followed by off-speed to get him out. Considerable room for improvement if he'll add some more loft to his swing, no reason he can't be an above-average hitter. Solid runner, average speed and maybe a tick above-average, projected solid average as he fills out. Defense at 3B is questionable. Solid hands, solid arm, just doesn't have the instincts that you'd want to see. Range effectively plays as fringe-average at best at present, too willing to let SS try to make the play. Better defender when he doesn't think about the play and lets his athleticism do the work, would make me skeptical of a potential move to 2B. I think he would project best in RF, where his mobility and arm would give him a chance to be a good defender. Darnell continues to project as an solid major league regular who should provide value through a high on-base percentage and major league average or better grades in most facets of the game. He doesn't have a truly elite ceiling due to his lack of top-shelf power and defensive issues, but he's got a better bat than he's shown this year. Based on what I've seen, he's just a few minor adjustments from turning on the switch and could break out at any time.

Adrian Cardenas, 3B, Midland Rockhounds

2006 Phillies supplemental pick who was traded to Oakland in 2008, in his third go-around at Midland after demotion from AAA Sacramento. Built like second baseman from waist up, third baseman from waist down. Upper body looks mature but lacks strength and definition, close to maxed out physically if he isn't already. Medium hips, thick legs, a little bit stocky in his lower body. Doesn't look like much of an athlete but has more than you might initially think. Skilled batter, doesn't chase much and perfectly willing to work a walk. Can get beat by good off-speed stuff low and away, that's about it. Good feel for hitting, looks to all fields. Hitting technique is less impressive, with a very armsy swing that generates next to no power. Frustrating as he obviously has some lower body strength to tap into, just doesn't do it. Okay with getting the ball into the gaps. Smart pitchers will just pound him inside, although he shows some aptitude for turning on inside pitches. Not even a line drive hitter, usually soft contact off the bat, typically only shows enough loft to get the ball past the infield. Surprisingly fast runner, above-average speed even if he doesn't take advantage of it that much. Oakland has decided to put him at 3B which is puzzling. Not built for 3B, doesn't project to hit like a 3B. Range at 3B is average, gives good effort but still developing the quick reactions needed for the position. Does have good hands, should field what he can get to. Very impressive arm strength, gets plenty of carry on his throws without max effort, nice even by 3B standards. Got to see several innings of play at 2B, looks more comfortable there. Solid athletic defensive actions at 2B, better there than at 3B even if it wastes his arm. Young enough to improve, but needs to work on driving the ball. Will never be a big power hitter, but he's not playing anywhere close to his power potential currently and it's why he's not in AAA right now. Still has the potential to be a regular at 2B, hard to see him profiling very well anywhere else without some major developments. If he keeps up his conditioning, best future role might be as a super-sub type, as his speed and arm should let him play both corner OF positions. Needs to be in AAA, where the pitchers and defenses are much less forgiving.

Much delayed, here is the hastily-posted thread. Your options this time around include (but are not limited to):

Bradenton:

Tony Sanchez, Sterling Marte, Brock Holt, Jeff Locke, Bryan Morris

Brevard County:

Kentrail Davis, Cody Scarpetta, Wily Peralta

Charlotte:

Matt Sweeney, Matt Moore, Nick Barnese, Joseph Cruz

Clearwater:

Anthony Gose, Trevor May, J.C. Ramirez, Jesus Sanchez

Daytona:

Brett Jackson, Ryan Flaherty, Josh Vitters, DJ LaMaheiu, Junior Lake, Chris Archer, Brooks Raley, Dae-Eun Rhee, The McNutt

Dunedin:

Travis D'arnaud, John Tolisano, Tyler Pastornicky, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Chad Jenkins

Fort Myers:

Angel Morales, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson, Adrian Salcedo (eligible?), Billy Bullock

Jupiter:

Isaac Galloway, Brad Hand, Jhan Martinez

Lakeland:

Daniel Fields, Charles Furbush, Brayan Villarreal, Jacob Turner

Palm Beach:

Thomas Pham

St. Lucie:

Wilmer Flores, Josh Satin, Kyle Allen, Jeurys Familia, Scott Moviel

Tampa:

Melky Mesa, Adam Warren, Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi, Graham Stoneburner, Dellin Betances

Because it hasn't been posted yet and because I like seeing it.

Our notable probables today, courtesy of minorleaguesplits.com:

Matthew Maloney for AAA Louisville (Reds)

Scott Barnes for AA Akron (Indians), recently mentioned on this very site

Tim Alderson for AA Altoona (Pirates)

Casey Kelly for AA Portland (Red Sox), but I believe Kyle Gibson pitched yesterday so that matchup is incorrect

Chris Withrow for AA Chattanooga (Dodgers)

Carlos Hernandez for AA Midland (A's) vs. Wynn Pelzer for AA San Antonio (Padres), I'll be at this game to catch the two starters for these teams that I have not seen pitch

Jon Michael Redding for A+ Inland Empire (Dodgers)

Eric Surkamp for A+ San Jose (Giants)

Ross Seaton for A+ Lancaster (Astros)

Liam Hendricks for A+ Fort Myers (Twins)

Trevor May for A+ Clearwater (Phillies)

B.J. Hermsen for Low A Beloit (Twins)

Kyle Lobstein for Low A Bowling Green (Rays)

Keaton Hayenga for Low A Burlington (Royals) vs. Jake Odorizzi for Low A Wisconsin (Brewers)

J.C. Sulbaran for Low A Dayton (Reds)

Kendal Volz for Low A Greenville (Red Sox)

Robbie Ross for Low A Hickory (Rangers)

Jarrad Cosart for Low A Lakewood (Phillies)

Chad James for Low A Greensboro (Marlins)

Austin Kirk for Short-season Boise (Cubs)

Jacob Petricka for Short-season Bristol (White Sox)

Daniel Tuttle for Short-season Billings (Reds) vs. Patrick Schuster for Short-season Missoula (Dbacks)

Scouting Report by MrKupe

Simon Castro, RHP, San Antonio Missions

Heralded arm from the Dominican Republic and a fast-riser up top prospect charts. All arms and legs, a legitimate 6'5”. Impressive athlete for his size. In warmups, does all the little things you like to see, with lots of stretching, long-tossing, and running sprints. On the mound, opened at 90-93 MPH, touching 95. Really works at keeping the ball down. Tons of foul balls off his fastball, sign of good late life. Slider at 82-84 MPH, sick movement, must be like trying to hit a frisbee. Not afraid to throw his slider to LH batters, where its two-plane movement turns it into something like the changeup from hell, lots of swings and misses by LH batters. Could stand to throw a few more high fastballs to change up the hitter's eye level as he likes to bury his slider, would probably miss more bats. Lots of moving parts to his delivery, good thing he's so athletic. Fastball dropped a notch after the first couple of innings, more 90-91 MPH in third and fourth innings. Third pitch is changeup, which he doesn't throw very much at this point but shows more promise than I had previously been led to believe. Good fade on the changeup, should not be a problem for him once he starts throwing it more often. The fifth inning for Castro did not go so well, he looked visibly tired. His mechanics started to break down leading to balls being left up in the zone (and getting hit hard), and his fastball velocity dropped to 89-91 MPH. While his pitch count wasn't that high and the raw numbers weren't bad, make no mistake, Castro was done for the day.

So overall, what did I think of Castro? His slider is clearly a plus pitch if not more than that, and his fastball is a good pitch as well. I think he'll have the changeup if he wants it. He may well be something of a victim of his own success as his fastball/slider combo can at least get him by at this level against LH batters. He shows the dedication needed to be a frontline guy. I think he's much more comfortable pitching down in the zone than up in the zone, and he'd be very potent if he can work in more high fastballs. That being said, his future is by no means certain. He's going to need the rest of this year in AA and probably a good chunk if not all of next year in AAA, refining his command, his mechanics, and his changeup. Obviously, he'll also need to build up his stamina. He has the potential to be a No. 2 starter, but he's not nearly as close to that as his numbers would have you believe.

Travis Banwart, RHP, Midland Rockhounds

24 year old 2007 fourth round draft pick repeating AA with an All Star campaign, just promoted to AAA Sacramento. Big frame, the type of body that scouts like to say is “built to last”. Throws from a three-quarters arm slot, which gives his fastball some life. He does not have an effortless delivery, as he looks like he's putting a lot into every pitch. I thought he might've had some issues repeating his delivery in the third inning, but he settled down and looked fine until the sixth inning, when he struggled a bit again. Fastball sat 88-92 MPH, topping out at 94 MPH. Command of fastball looked to be just okay, but he was generally around the zone with it. Best secondary pitch looked to be his changeup, which shows decent fade and induces some bad contact, not really a swing-and-miss pitch though. Banwart showed two breaking balls, a curveball and a slider. He only threw the slider a few times and it didn't look to be anything more than a show-me pitch. In contrast, Banwart went to his curveball a fair amount of the time, and I would guess that it is the work he has done on this pitch that is most responsible for his success this year. It's an okay pitch, although he often looked to be focusing more on the location of the pitch than its break. At times Banwart's arm speed noticeably slowed when going to his curveball, and the difference between fastball and offspeed became increasingly easy to pick up out of his hand as he got into the later innings of his outing. All in all, Banwart looks okay and he's definitely made some progress this year, but there's nothing that really jumps out about him, either. I would guess that he's a potential No. 5 starter or maybe a middle relief type as he does have respectable arm strenth, but the combination of average velocity and lack of a true out pitch precludes him from having a higher ceiling.

Fautino De Los Santos, RHP, Midland Rockhounds

One-time top prospect and TJ survivor back on the road to the major leaues, just promoted to Midland. Solid build with a strong core, built for power. Generates his velocity through a big leg kick, hides the ball well against RH batters. Fastball sat 94-96 MPH with good life. Easy heat, went two innings and could have probably gone longer. Scary to think where he might be at this time next year. Only features one secondary pitch at present, a nasty looking slider. Slider worked between 83-87 MPH, but appeared to throw one at 89 MPH. De Los Santos is utterly unfair to RH batters, as his combination of deception and raw stuff gives him the ability to take them apart. Against LH batters he'll have some adjustment issues to work through, as he struggles a bit with his command against them. Two LH batters got in good swings on him: Cedric Hunter drove a 95 MPH fastball to center field, and Matt Clark bombed a 96 MPH fastball deep foul. It shouldn't be a problem for him long-term, stuff is just that good. If he remains in relief, De Los Santos profiles as a future closer and could help the team in relatively short order. If Oakland chooses to develop him as a starter, he'll need time to learn a changeup. Very high upside player.

I just spent several days in San Antonio watching the AA San Antonio Missions (Padres affiliate) play against the Midland Rockhounds (Oakland affiliate). I only missed out on seeing a few players . . .Wynn Pelzer was the odd starter out for SA, and Arnold Leon and Jemile Weeks are both injured. I took in a lot, and I'm looking forward to heading back down in a few weeks to watch some of the other teams in the Texas League come to town. I decided to start this off simply by writing about a few prospects that interested me and/or were asked about, and then I can proceed with requests and/or more of the guys that interested me.

A few notes about the stadium . . .as many of you may have heard, San Antonio is regarded as a pitcher's park in the Texas League. The dimensions of the park actually aren't all that hostile - it's only 310 to left field and 340 to right field, 402 to dead center. The part that makes Wolff Stadium tricky for hitters is the orientation of the stadium. As the sun goes down, shadows cover the pitcher's mound and batter's box, making it difficult for hitters to pick up the ball. I took several pictures of the conditions to better illustrate just what we're looking at here and will see if I have one good enough to post here. While I'm not familiar enough with the conditions to be sure, I also noticed a breeze coming in and across the field. It wasn't a major feature in the games that I saw as far as I can tell, but it's worth noting that only one home run was hit the entire series. Neither of these teams is exactly notable for its power hitters, though, with the best raw power that I saw was out of San Antonio 1B Matt Clark, although that's really all he's got.

Random disclaimer: Hi, I'm an amateur at this, so don't accept my word as gospel.

Anthony Capra, LHP, Midland Rockhounds

gatling wanted to hear about Capra, and I was similarly intrigued by him. <!-- @page { margin: 0.79in } P { margin-bottom: 0.08in } --> Listed at 6'1”, but I suspect that might be a tad generous. Was surprised to find that he's listed at 200, upper body looks a bit slight. Fastball sat 87-89 first three innings, touching 90-91. Velocity jumped in the last two innings, sitting 89-91, touching 93. Paces himself nicely, didn't look like he was putting everything he had into his delivery early, seemed to show his strength more as the game progressed. Deceptive delivery, hides the ball relatively well. Fastball command just wasn't there, missed a lot, not a guy who can afford to do that. Didn't fool anybody, San Antonio made consistently hard contact against him from the start of things, got lucky a lot. Seemed to pick up on this, adjusted by trying to pound the bottom of the zone, didn't help. Fastball not very lively, easily tracked. Threw his curve (75-77) a lot, used it to get ahead in some counts. Command of curve inconsistent, a work in progress. SA looked a little surprised by the number of curves, he got a good number of swings and misses on it, suspect they wouldn't get beaten by it quite so much next time around. Should be a decent pitch to use against LH batters, needs to tighten it up. Have heard a lot about his change, didn't see that much of it. Went to his change when he needed a money pitch, got out of a couple of jams with it. Change has good fade, probably a nasty pitch when fastball command is on, not quite as much when struggling to throw his fastball through the same area.

Capra looked fringy to me as a starting pitcher; his subpar command of a hittable fastball was troubling, and he got through his outing in large part on the strength of luck and guile. I was nonetheless impressed by his tenacity, as he refused to back down even when fighting against himself. Interesting potential in relief where he wouldn't have to worry about pacing himself, as I'd like his demeanor out of the pen. He'll most likely need to refine his breaking ball to get that chance of course.

Jared Lansford, RHP, Midland Rockhounds

Former second round draft pick by Oakland now serving as Midland's closer. Made for a solid prospect at the plate as well in high school, still shows it as he looks like a good athlete. It quickly became obvious to me as to why Lansford is in the pen, as he is an EXTREMELY slow worker. He is incredibly deliberate, and will gladly take any opportunity to pace around the pitcher's mound. I hadn't gotten a chance to look at his numbers before the game, but fortunately it quickly became clear as to just what kind of pitcher he is. Lansford, as evidenced by his 2.93 GO/AO ratio, is a big time sinkerballer, and it's a good looking pitch. It works anywhere from 87-92 MPH, although I thought he got better downward movement and a little more control on it when he threw it in the lower end of that range. Lansford's other main offering is a breaking ball, which I believe was an 81-82 MPH hard curveball. It's a solid offering that gets swings and misses at this level, but he'll need to tighten it up and refine his command of the pitch to make it effective at the major league level. He does struggle with his command, as many young sinkerballers do, but the movement on his pitches is good enough to induce weak contact to get him out of trouble. He doesn't have the raw power or miss enough bats to profile as a closer in the majors, but he looks like a potential solid bullpen option to me.

Cedric Hunter, CF, San Antonio Missions

Former 3rd round draft pick repeating AA. Doesn't look the part of a high draft pick, as he's undersized and not especially toolsy. Hunter is playing CF for the Missions but I'd be skeptical of playing him there everyday in the majors, as I just don't think he has the pure range to get the job done. He does have remarkably good instincts though, so he should definitely be at least above-average in a corner with spot duty in CF being fine. He's got some speed but isn't a burner. At the plate, he shows a good feel for hitting, as he'll take the ball to all fields. He also works counts well. Bat speed is just okay, but again his good instincts let him cheat a bit and he's not an easy strikeout. Hunter does not have very much power at all, and he doesn't try to hide it. I'd say the best thing about Hunter is his makeup, which is off the charts. The guy is all hustle, high-energy, high-effort in everything he does. For a good team he's a fourth OF but a very valuable one, owing to his defensive versatility and his resilience at the plate - he will make pitchers work to get him out. He might have some starter potential as a CF for a lesser team.

The intro:

Seeing as we're getting close to the midpoint of the season, it's not a bad idea to start reassessing players, and based on the popularity of cwhitman's regrade thread, it's obvious that we're all thinking about how players stack up. That being said, making a top prospects list is hard and it can take a while to double-check that you're not missing any names. So I decided, why not go through the process of creating community league top prospect lists? This way we're breaking things up into much easier-to-digest chunks. Obviously things will change - we have another half of the season to go, and some prospects will receive promotions and become eligible for various lists at later dates. That's not a problem, though, and it should actually make it easier to integrate prospects into the overall league rankings as they become eligible. Note that while a prospect may no longer be in the league, for this exercise we'll consider position players to be eligible if he A) has 100 or more ABs in the league or B) is currently in the league. Starting pitchers are eligible if they have A) 5 or more starts in the league or B) they are currently in the league. All relief pitchers are automatically eligible, no innings count. Rehab appearances obviously do not count. Let me know if this works for everybody.

To facilitate these rankings, I'm going to post a list of "notable" prospects from each team, in an effort to minimize the chances of anybody forgetting about a particular prospect. You may also wonder why I'm not starting with the Midwest or South Atlantic League . . .the reason is that those leagues are very large, and having that many teams to run through might make them a little difficult to start with. So the order will be: High A leagues, Double A leagues, Low A leagues, Triple A leagues. If I'm missing anybody in the notables list, let me know so I can add them. Your list need not be restricted to these players, they are purely here for the sake of reminding you that they are in this league. Also keep in mind: the omission of a player from the notables list does not mean that I hate said player or that I am unaware of his existence. Thomas Field, I salute you!

NOTE: There is no "minimum" number of prospects that you have to rank. If you want to rank 10, rank 10. If you want to rank a full 20, rank 20. No more than 20, but whatever you feel comfortable with otherwise . . .don't rank players if you don't feel comfortable.

Link to previous Ranking the Leagues:

California League

Notable prospects for the Carolina League:

Frederick Keys:

L.J. Hoes, Xavier Avery, Bill Rowell, Richard Zagone, Ryan Berry

Kinston Indians:

Jason Kipnis, T.J. House, Alex White, Nick Hagadone, Kelvin De La Cruz, Joseph Gardner, Bryce Stowell

Lynchburg Hillcats:

Devin Mesoraco, Alex Buchholz, Neftali Soto, Cody Puckett

Myrtle Beach Pelicans:

Mycal Jones (recently promoted to the league), Randall Delgado, J.J. Hoover, Julio Teheran, Zeke Spruill

Potomac Nationals:

Michael Burgess, Derek Norris, A.J. Morris

Salem Red Sox:

Oscar Tejada, Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Lavarnway, Peter Hissey, Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Dent, Brock Huntzinger, Caleb Clay, Stolmy Pimental, Alex Wilson

Wilmington Blue Rocks:

Eric Hosmer, Adrian Ortiz, Tim Melville, John Lamb, Mike Montgomery

Winston-Salem Dash:

Jon Gilmore, Eduardo Escobar, Nevin Griffith

Seeing as we're getting close to the midpoint of the season, it's not a bad idea to start reassessing players, and based on the popularity of cwhitman's regrade thread, it's obvious that we're all thinking about how players stack up. That being said, making a top prospects list is hard and it can take a while to double-check that you're not missing any names. So I decided, why not go through the process of creating community league top prospect lists? This way we're breaking things up into much easier-to-digest chunks. Obviously things will change - we have another half of the season to go, and some prospects will receive promotions and become eligible for various lists at later dates. That's not a problem, though, and it should actually make it easier to integrate prospects into the overall league rankings as they become eligible. Note that while a prospect may no longer be in the league, for this exercise we'll consider position players to be eligible if he A) has 100 or more ABs in the league or B) is currently in the league. Starting pitchers are eligible if they have A) 5 or more starts in the league or B) they are currently in the league. All relief pitchers are automatically eligible, no innings count. Rehab appearances obviously do not count. Let me know if this works for everybody.

To facilitate these rankings, I'm going to post a list of "notable" prospects from each team, in an effort to minimize the chances of anybody forgetting about a particular prospect. You may also wonder why I'm not starting with the Midwest or South Atlantic League . . .the reason is that those leagues are very large, and having that many teams to run through might make them a little difficult to start with. So the order will be: High A leagues, Double A leagues, Low A leagues, Triple A leagues. And we'll kick it off with the California League, because I randomly chose that league. If I'm missing anybody in the notables list, let me know so I can add them. Your list need not be restricted to these players, they are purely here for the sake of reminding you that they are in this league.

NOTE: There is no "minimum" number of prospects that you have to rank. If you want to rank 10, rank 10. If you want to rank a full 20, rank 20. No more than 20, but whatever you feel comfortable with otherwise . . .don't rank players if you don't feel comfortable.

A bit of a weak year in the Cal League prospect wise . . .should make it a fun one to work with!

Notable prospects:

Bakersfield Blaze:

Engel Beltre, Michael Main, Carlos Pimental, Wilmer Font

High Desert Mavericks:

Dennis Raben, Kyle Seager, Johermyn Chavez, Denny Almonte, Rich Poythress, Maikel Cleto

Inland Empire 66ers:

Kyle Russell, Austin Gallagher, Tony Delmonico, Aaron Miller, Ethan Martin, Nathan Eovaldi, Kenley Jansen

Lake Elsinore Storm:

Drew Cumberland, Allan Dykstra, Jaff Decker, Blake Tekotte, Nick Schmidt, Anthony Bass

Lancaster JetHawks:

Jay Austin, Dallas Keuchel, Ross Seaton

Modesto Nuts:

Jordan Pacheco, Tim Wheeler, Ethan Hollingsworth, Rex Brothers

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes:

Alexi Amarista, Tyler Chatwood, Will Smith

San Jose Giants:

Brandon Belt, Charlie Culberson, Eric Surkamp, Jason Stoffel, Ehire Adrianza, JC Perez, Edwin Quirarte

Stockton Ports:

Grant Green, Jeremy Barfield, Fautino De Los Santos

Visalia Rawhide:

Ryan Wheeler, Marc Krauss, Wade Miley

The old one got pushed down, so here we go.

Kicking it off is new stuff from our good friend Frankie Piliere, with a few comments of my own to complement it.

-The Mets are centering in on . . . C Justin O'Connor. I've suspected that teams were playing it very cool on O'Connor for a while now and that there were multiple teams who were targeting him as a signability guy, but not even I thought he would get THIS high up the board. This pick would probably blow up some boards in the 16-21 pick range.

-The Indians have locked onto Drew Pomeranz.at No. 5. Not too surprising . . .I think their interest in Chris Sale was largely predicated on the idea that Pomeranz would not be there, and since they know that KC won't take him off the board, they're showing their hand. Solid pick, relatively high upside as far as Indians picks go.

-The Brewers are focusing on Jesse Biddle, but projectable prep RHP Luke Jackson (4th round pick in the Unofficial 4th Round of the Official Unofficial Minor League Ball Mock Draft) is apparently their second choice. Sounds like another guy that teams have been playing it cool on for a while, but at this point in the process, the fog starts to clear.

-Deck McGuire might just fall to the Reds at No. 12, which would also blow up draft boards. I had the Reds pegged for Alex Wimmers or Christian Colon, and having both of them still on the board would probably cause some teams to start shuffling things around. It looks like concerns about Colon's upside are starting to rear their ugly head, but I can't see Wimmers falling too much farther down. And where exactly will Matt Harvey end up?

With the major league draft fast approaching, I figured that I as well as others might benefit from having a thread specifically for draft-related information and questions. Signability of various players will probably be a hot topic (and stuff that's good to know for the Mock Draft).

A few things to start off, based on Frankie Piliere's new Mock Draft.

-Supposedly, the Royals are hot on Asher Wojc!@#%&*. They had a huge contingent to watch him this weekend, and with no pick after No. 4 until the second round, they're either thinking that he could drop massively . . .or more likely, they're thinking about him at No. 4. It's probably the latter . . .you don't send your scouting director to watch a kid with a week to go before the draft for the hell of it.

-Mike Kvasnicka seems to have tons and tons of helium, and with a paucity of solid college bats an increasing number of teams seem to be coming to the realization that they might have to think a little more outside of the box to get a guy that fits their MO.

-Piliere has Yordy Cabrera to Oakland at No. 10 . . .despite the Boras connection he sounds eminently signable (probably due to his age), but while his upside is impressive I just don't buy him at all. Nice raw power, but that's about it - I don't think he'll hit for average, and his pitch recognition needs work. I'd hate to gamble a top 10 pick on that package.

Now, my own contribution . . .wondering if anybody has heard anything on the signability of Stanford commits Brian Ragira, A.J. Vanegas, and Lonnie Kauppila. I really like Vanegas, would not want to let him get away to college. Kauppila reminds me a lot of Ryan Jackson (the recent Miami shortstop and Cardinals draftee), and I suspect he gets to campus. I know Ragira is pretty big on going to school, and I'd probably let him go - I suspect he's a tweener, but some time in college might help him mature better and maximize his power potential.

Unfortunately, due to the MOD Directory not working as planned (people continued to rec the daily posts without need to, pushing the Directory off the front page), I'm having to post this. Sorry in advance, but I wanted to make sure that anybody interested got to weigh in on my draft process.

As we approach the Minor League Ball Mock Draft, I've been trying to figure out how the rest of the community will draft in the first 17 picks, in preparation for my own first selection at No. 18. This is how I think the first 17 picks will go, in no particular order:

Bryce Harper
Jameson Taillon
Manny Machado
Yasmani Grandal
Karsten Whitson
Josh Sale
Dylan Covey
Stetson Allie
Drew Pomeranz
Austin Wilson
Matt Harvey
Michael Choice
Nick Castellanos
Zach Cox
Chris Sale
Anthony Ranaudo
Deck McGuire

There are a few guys in play who could jump into the conversation:

James Paxton (could vary a lot over the next few days)
A.J. Cole (upside)
Zach Lee (Minor League Ball Mock Drafters love upside, don't care about signability)
Christian Colon (safer pick seems to be slipping slightly)
Alex Wimmers (I think he drops like a rock here though)
Kolbrin Vitek (might go to a team that wants a blend of safety of upside in a college bat)

Out of the 17 I listed, the most likely candidates to drop are probably Ranaudo and Choice. Ranaudo doesn't make sense for me given signability and I prefer Vitek to Choice. Matt Harvey and Chris Sale jump out to me as guys that might slip a bit, and I'd take either of them. I'm skeptical that any of the top HS pitchers will get to me, and all would be signability issues save perhaps A.J. Cole.

(Preliminary) Big Board for 18:

1. Chris Sale, LHP
2. Matt Harvey, RHP
3. Christian Colon, SS (I'll bet he'll sign with the Angels)
4. Kolbrin Vitek, 2B (I really like his bat, think he'll improve by concentrating on hitting)
5. Brandon Workman, RHP (love his arm, seems like a guy the real Angels would take)

At 29 and 30, it gets a little dicier. I expect all of the names I listed above to be gone by 29 (with the possible exceptions of Lee, who won't be signable by me, and Wimmers, who I probably would take at 30). I don't intend to get out of the first round without at least one prep arm, but fortunately I really like the guys that should be on the board. I'm also big on prep C Justin O'Connor - his athleticism and raw power make me look past my typical aversion to prep catchers. If I didn't get Colon or Vitek at 18, a college bat would be a nice addition at the end of the first as well.

(Preliminary) Big(ger) Board for 29 $ 30:

1. Alex Wimmers, RHP (guessing a 30 percent chance that he is here)
2. Peter Tago, RHP (I am REALLY high on him)
3. Justin O'Connor, C (high upside prep bat)
4. Mike Folty!@#$%^&*, RHP (the Tago back-up plan, big on him too)
5. Sammy Solis, LHP (a solid college lefty to add safety to the class)
6. Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B (slight overdraft but as safe a college bat as you can get here)
7. Cam Bedrosian, RHP (an upper half of the first round guy if he was 2 inches taller)
8. Jarrett Parker, OF (toolsy college guy, might blossom outside UVA)
9. Chevez Clarke, OF (good feeling about him)
10. Drew Vettleson, OF (nice bat)

Heading into the last two early picks (37 and 40), decisions have to be made. Since I'll be off the clock for 40+ picks, overdrafts are a reasonable possibility if it's somebody I'm really big on and they'll likely be off the board by the time I'm up again. So I'll jump ahead to the board.

(Preliminary) Big Board for picks 37 and 40:

1. Austin Wates, OF (like the tools)
2. Hunter Morris, 1B (I like how he raised his game this year, good bat)
3. Reggie Golden, OF (nice talent, would he would first round money?)
4. Robbie Aviles, RHP (don't like him as much as others, but if he was here I'd look)
5. Delino DeShields, OF (all speed, don't trust the rest but he'd be an interesting selection)

Since some posters either have no clue that posts still exist beyond the front page or they're absolutely hell-bent on driving non-redundant posts off the front page for the two weeks, I'm making this thread.

It's a simple concept. Each of the 32 teams posts a link to their most current MOD post, which they'll then use for the rest of the exercise. This post gets recommended, that way it stays on the main page and everybody has easy access to the MODs that they're interacting with. The MOD threads have gotten WAY out of control and it's dragging down other daily content of value.

Greetings and salutations to all! I'll be running the LAA draft this year, which is a pretty intimidating task. Here's our pick list for the mock draft: 18, 29, 30, 37, 40, 81, 111, 115

I'll be posting my ideas later today as to whom to take where, but I wanted to get this out there now for some input. One thing that should be noted: I don't tend to weigh actual team philosophy TOO heavily (that's a good way for me to get a draft that I don't feel good about), but realism is a big deal to me. With this many picks, the Angels really can't afford to go too much over slot in any one case, and there's definitely going to have to be some easy signs in here. Of course, I have a few names in mind that I might jump 15-20 picks ahead of where they'll go in the real draft that I absolutely love, which simulates signing a guy for over-slot in a later slot position.

I'm looking for the full records of all of the Minor League Ball mock drafts. I think I've participated in every one thus far (and look for me again this year!), and was trying to track down all of my results. It seems like the records are really spread out though, and not really easy to search through manually . . .

Has anybody created a compilation of these records? It takes a lot of work to prepare for these things, but the back-and-forth between the posters is a lot of fun to look back on, and looking at how the community felt about things at the time is pretty cool.

I may be taking a bit of a liberty here, but A) I know a lot of us are going to be talking about in other places anyways and B) I always like seeing the different ways that we think about amateur prospects across different sports. I was thinking this could be a catch-all thread . . .speculation, thoughts on players you've seen/know a lot about, etc. Anybody want to weigh in with their thoughts? I'll be especially interested on a personal level to see where the Big 12 guys go, as I'm a University of Texas season ticket holder . . .

I originally wasn't going to participate in the mock draft . . .other people do it better than me, frankly, and I usually prefer to focus on analyzing guys within the pro ranks, which is hard enough. But when nms posted this morning that he would not be able to make the draft, I decided that I had enough knowledge to get myself through, and I knew that I'd be able to stay throughout the draft. So I agreed and sat myself down to work.

Now, I have a great deal of respect for nms and the insight that he's provided over the years on this site. He also posted some interesting draft notes which I wasn't going to be beholden to (as well I shouldn't - anybody could and probably did read those!), but nonetheless gave me a good idea for the way he wanted to conduct the draft. I wanted to be true to his style while at the same time putting my own stamp on the process. I also wanted to be faithful to real-life demands - I don't expect the actual Reds to splurge, so while signability wasn't everything, it was definitely something I needed to keep in mind every step of the way. Last but not least, I totally refuse to even consider the idea of "organizational need". I want the best of the best on my team, no ifs, ands, or buts.

I'll take you through my process, pick by pick. And for the sake of disclosure, I did not and still have not read any of the MOD threads here, so I was totally reliant on my intuition and reasoning skills to assist me in determining what players would be available at various points.

First round: Pick #8, #8 overall. Selection: Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State

Going into the draft, there was no doubt in my mind that the guy I wanted at No. 8 was Alex White. Great fastball, great secondary pitch in his slider, solid command, nice athleticism and size. I wasn't totally certain if he would get to me, though . . .I knew 1 and 2 would be Strasburg and Ackley, and I figured that the Padres, having a lack of raw upside players in their system, would be inclined to go for Crow, and if not him then Tate. I wasn't sure what the Pirates would do at No. 4, but I did know that gatling would be making the pick and I suspected that he would take Crow off the board if he was there, but that he would leave Tate and instead take one of Jacob Turner or Tyler Matzek. I had no feel at all for Baltimore at 5, but I had seen numerous mock drafts that had tied them to Zach Wheeler, so I decided to pencil his name in there. That left the Giants and Braves ahead of me to deny me Alex White. I couldn't see the Giants taking White . . .the rotation is about as stable long-term as any in baseball, which led me to believe that the team GM would recognize the same and thus look towards the prep ranks for pitching. I also thought it entirely possible that given the total lack of bats in the system, their GM might look towards Tate if he was on the board, or possibly surprise with the selection of Tim Wheeler or Bobby Borchering. And then there were the Braves . . .and as the Braves just don't take college pitchers early, all looked good.

And so the draft began. I didn't even bother to look at my screen for 1 and 2. I called Crow at No. 3 successfully, 4 picks to go. gatling doesn't let me down and takes Tyler Matzek at 4. Baltimore goes predictable and takes Zach Wheeler off the board at 5. The Giants don't move on a position prospect, but decide to splurge for Jacob Turner - I like him more than Wheeler, but I wonder if Baltimore and SF would have just flip-flopped picks had Turner been the pick at 5? One pick to go, and I'm all set with my pick, as Atlanta doesn't take college pitchers . . .I'm awaiting the selection of Shelby Miller, Chad James, maybe a small reach for Matt Hobgood.

And then . . .the Braves take Alex White. Huh. Now I totally did not see that coming, and obviously it's not happening in real life. But none of that matters here, as I need to make a pick. I should say that I didn't totally ignore the possibility that maybe one of teams 1-7 really liked Alex White and were going to jump on him, because I did have alternatives. And so I found myself choosing between Mike Leake and Grant Green. I really liked Leake - although I was a little skeptical as to just how hard he throws, he's otherwise a total package as a pitcher, and I thought he'd be easy enough to sign around slot, perhaps giving me a little extra flexibility later if an intriguing prep dropped a bit. Green was on the total opposite end of the spectrum. I've loved Green for years, and would have taken him in the 2006 Minor League Ball mock draft if not for his heavy USC commitment. I think he's got a solid shot at sticking at shortstop and hitting for average - looks like a classic case of a guy who's been under the spotlight too light and has been microanalyzed to death. He's not an uber-prospect, but he's a very nice one. Of course . . .he's still expensive.

I debated between Leake and Green, before deciding that A) I'd be VERY happy to add Leake to my system and B) Green's signability concerns weren't something that I wanted to worry about with players that I liked still on the board. So I took Leake, felt good about it for a few seconds, and then started building up my list for my next selection while watching the goings-on of the draft. The A's taking Tate surprised me but if Billy Beane thinks he's something special, it's not impossible to imagine that he could sell ownership on their one big purchase this year. The Indians with Shelby Miller and the Dbacks with Matt Purke rate pretty highly on the "Great Moments In Minor League Ball Mock Draft History That Will Never Happen In Real Life" scale, though. Also of note: James Paxton is taken by the Angels at No. 24 . . .keep this in mind, it's important later.

Supplemental first round: Pick #11, #43 overall. Selection: Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State

Having taken a polished college pitcher in round 1, I was naturally drawn to looking for upside in round 2. I quite liked the prep middle infielder class in this year's draft, and while personal favorite Jiovanni Mier was off the board, I was hopeful that Mychal Givens might get to me. I knew that David Renfroe would be very expensive, which meant that I couldn't think about him until the second round (no compensation for a supplemental pick, of course). Garrett Gould was still on the board, surprisingly, and I liked him too. Tons of live college arms (albeit with questions) were ripe for the picking, a side effect of the heavier-than-anticipated prep presence in round 1. Finally, I noticed that Tony Sanchez was still on the board, and he would have been a nice fit at 43. I loved Josh Phegley's bat but the defense concerns are pretty serious with him and with all the impact arms still on the board, it was hard to see taking a have-bat-will-travel guy.

Givens gets taken right away, should've expected that one. Renfroe somehow goes to the Dbacks at 35, which was just plain confusing. Round 2, sure, but in the supplemental? Gould and Sanchez get snapped up and my list of potential picks for this slot are looking pretty thin. I look back towards Phegley again along with power college arm Kyle Heckathorn, who was dropping like a rock and I wasn't sure why. The risk of Phegley turning into absolutely nothing for me took him out of the equation for this pick, and Heckathorn's raw talent made him an easy choice. Getting a power arm out of the college ranks with all the tools needed for pitching success made me a very happy man at this point. So now I've taken two college pitchers with my first two picks, albeit with radically different profiles.

Second round: Pick #8, #57 overall. Selection: Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State

Somebody moved quickly on Phegley in the supplemental round, which surprises me a bit as I would have liked to have considered him in the second round . . .but then again, all-bat catchers who can't play defense aren't exactly uncommon, so I didn't feel too bad. The Padres take Nick Franklin at the start of round 2, which hurt a little more . . .adding a prep middle infielder would have been a nice way to diversify my draft class, and I liked Franklin as a relatively safe pick. I had a list of guys for round 2 which ran a little longer than the supplemental round, actually, as the pool of players with signability concerns out-weighed the number of guys that I liked who happened to be taken in the supplemental. I loved Texas HS LHP Colton Cain's raw stuff and prep SS Billy Hamilton's tools, but I thought that both would just end up costing more money than I could see the real life Reds putting up - and there's a good chance that neither plays pro ball next year in real life anyways. More realistic targets were prep OF Slade Heathcott and Arizona prep pitcher Jason Barrett (who I really coveted). Lousiana HS pitcher Brady Colvin also intrigued me, and I thought that he'd go before Barrett so I had to consider him first. Arizona State OF Jason Kipnis was still on the board, and while he wasn't as toolsy as the sort of guy I was looking for with this pick, I couldn't argue with his bat. Last but not least, I had to continue to consider the possibility of MORE college pitching . . .Brad Boxberger of USC was a personal favorite, and then there was also James Paxton of Kentucky, who hadn't been taken yet to my great surprise.

Yes, that James Paxton. The one who was taken No. 24 by the Angels. Well, pseudo-me knows that there are PLENTY of other guys that I like, so what are the odds that I decide to roll the dice with a third college pitcher in as many picks?

The odds, in fact, proved to be 1:1, as I epic failed the draft by becoming the first person to take a player already taken, subjecting me to much scorn. I have heard that John Sickels actually swore under his breath after seeing my pick . . .on the bright side, it was in Romulan and I don't understand that language anyways.

Somebody gets insanely excited after my pick and jumps in and takes Colvin. While to preserve the draft I'm allowed to go back and re-pick, even considering Colvin at that point would just be rude, so I let that pick stand. Heathcott was off the board, which left Boxberger, Barrett, and Kipnis for me. I decided that I would take Boxberger in round 3 if I could but that I needed to break up my draft class a bit. I decide that while there is a pretty good possibility that Barrett is around in round 3 if I take Kipnis, there is NO WAY that Kipnis makes it past Arizona at No. 60 let alone my next pick at No. 88. So I take the super-solid bat of Kipnis and let Barrett go . . .which then causes me to swear in Romulan(?!) when Barrett is taken by the Yankees at No. 76. Bravo good sir, you got me. Apparently there were a bunch of other people thinking along the same lines as me re: signability, as they all go off the board in a big clump at the end of round 2 . . .Jeff Malm to the Jays at 68, Cain went to the Astros at 69, Brian Goodwin to the White Sox at 71, Billy Hamilton to the Red Sox at 77, Brooks Bogu . . .err, Raley to the Angels at 80.

Third round: Pick #8, #88 overall. Selection: Kyle Seager, 2B, University of North Carolina

So, I had reached the third round at long last, and yet I still had hard choices to make with plenty of enticing choices on the board. I had noticed that the college relief ranks had barely been touched, and Ben Tootle of Jacksonville State in particular leapt out to me as a huge value pick. However, I totally admit that by this point I definitely wanted to add another position player, preferably one who could add value through means other than his bat. Prep C Austin Maddox seemed like a nice idea - despite his shortcomings with his glove (although not his arm) and his need to refine his bat, he had the raw upside to spice up my draft class. Prep middle infielder Chris Owings was also an option, although I wasn't totally sold on his defensive value and his upside with the bat didn't thrill me enough to overcome that.

However, my mind ended up centering on two infielders from big-time college programs: Ryan Jackson, SS from Miami, and Kyle Seager, 2B/3B from UNC. Jackson's drop didn't surprise me at all - based on what I've seen from other Minor League Ball mock drafts, we're all about the numbers, and Jackson admittedly doesn't really bring that to the table. Of course, he's a major leaguer even if he hits .220 with that glove, and I love the idea of knowing that you're going to get SOMETHING out of a guy with a high pick. If somebody can figure out how to make his swing work well enough to get him to .250, he's a VERY nice regular player - I'd take that gamble. Seager appealed to me in other ways - maybe a Joe Randa type as a 3B (which I could live with), but as a 2B I could see him being a steady regular who surprises me with his offensive contributions.

Maddox went off the board before my pick, which left me absolutely certain that I would take one of Jackson or Seager. I knew that nms really liked Seager, and also that Mel Kiper Jr. had projected Cincinnati to take Seager in the real life draft at No. 88 . . .which meant that my selection of Seager was totally predictable. And yet, I couldn't argue with the choice and liked it so much, I made it my own. It was very hard leaving Jackson up on the board, but I like Seager's potential to be a regular significantly more and that's what sealed the deal for me.

So, ladies and gentlemen, if you've made it this far, I present to you now your 2009 Cincinnati Reds Mock Draft Class:

1) Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State

1S) Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennessaw State

2) Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State

3) Kyle Seager, 2B, North Carolina

May dougdirt have mercy on my soul.