SB Nation User Blog: mrkupe

The Mock Draft: Why I Did What I Did

mrkupe — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 19:33:38 -0000

I originally wasn't going to participate in the mock draft . . .other people do it better than me, frankly, and I usually prefer to focus on analyzing guys within the pro ranks, which is hard enough. But when nms posted this morning that he would not be able to make the draft, I decided that I had enough knowledge to get myself through, and I knew that I'd be able to stay throughout the draft. So I agreed and sat myself down to work.

Now, I have a great deal of respect for nms and the insight that he's provided over the years on this site. He also posted some interesting draft notes which I wasn't going to be beholden to (as well I shouldn't - anybody could and probably did read those!), but nonetheless gave me a good idea for the way he wanted to conduct the draft. I wanted to be true to his style while at the same time putting my own stamp on the process. I also wanted to be faithful to real-life demands - I don't expect the actual Reds to splurge, so while signability wasn't everything, it was definitely something I needed to keep in mind every step of the way. Last but not least, I totally refuse to even consider the idea of "organizational need". I want the best of the best on my team, no ifs, ands, or buts.

I'll take you through my process, pick by pick. And for the sake of disclosure, I did not and still have not read any of the MOD threads here, so I was totally reliant on my intuition and reasoning skills to assist me in determining what players would be available at various points.

First round: Pick #8, #8 overall. Selection: Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State

Going into the draft, there was no doubt in my mind that the guy I wanted at No. 8 was Alex White. Great fastball, great secondary pitch in his slider, solid command, nice athleticism and size. I wasn't totally certain if he would get to me, though . . .I knew 1 and 2 would be Strasburg and Ackley, and I figured that the Padres, having a lack of raw upside players in their system, would be inclined to go for Crow, and if not him then Tate. I wasn't sure what the Pirates would do at No. 4, but I did know that gatling would be making the pick and I suspected that he would take Crow off the board if he was there, but that he would leave Tate and instead take one of Jacob Turner or Tyler Matzek. I had no feel at all for Baltimore at 5, but I had seen numerous mock drafts that had tied them to Zach Wheeler, so I decided to pencil his name in there. That left the Giants and Braves ahead of me to deny me Alex White. I couldn't see the Giants taking White . . .the rotation is about as stable long-term as any in baseball, which led me to believe that the team GM would recognize the same and thus look towards the prep ranks for pitching. I also thought it entirely possible that given the total lack of bats in the system, their GM might look towards Tate if he was on the board, or possibly surprise with the selection of Tim Wheeler or Bobby Borchering. And then there were the Braves . . .and as the Braves just don't take college pitchers early, all looked good.

And so the draft began. I didn't even bother to look at my screen for 1 and 2. I called Crow at No. 3 successfully, 4 picks to go. gatling doesn't let me down and takes Tyler Matzek at 4. Baltimore goes predictable and takes Zach Wheeler off the board at 5. The Giants don't move on a position prospect, but decide to splurge for Jacob Turner - I like him more than Wheeler, but I wonder if Baltimore and SF would have just flip-flopped picks had Turner been the pick at 5? One pick to go, and I'm all set with my pick, as Atlanta doesn't take college pitchers . . .I'm awaiting the selection of Shelby Miller, Chad James, maybe a small reach for Matt Hobgood.

And then . . .the Braves take Alex White. Huh. Now I totally did not see that coming, and obviously it's not happening in real life. But none of that matters here, as I need to make a pick. I should say that I didn't totally ignore the possibility that maybe one of teams 1-7 really liked Alex White and were going to jump on him, because I did have alternatives. And so I found myself choosing between Mike Leake and Grant Green. I really liked Leake - although I was a little skeptical as to just how hard he throws, he's otherwise a total package as a pitcher, and I thought he'd be easy enough to sign around slot, perhaps giving me a little extra flexibility later if an intriguing prep dropped a bit. Green was on the total opposite end of the spectrum. I've loved Green for years, and would have taken him in the 2006 Minor League Ball mock draft if not for his heavy USC commitment. I think he's got a solid shot at sticking at shortstop and hitting for average - looks like a classic case of a guy who's been under the spotlight too light and has been microanalyzed to death. He's not an uber-prospect, but he's a very nice one. Of course . . .he's still expensive.

I debated between Leake and Green, before deciding that A) I'd be VERY happy to add Leake to my system and B) Green's signability concerns weren't something that I wanted to worry about with players that I liked still on the board. So I took Leake, felt good about it for a few seconds, and then started building up my list for my next selection while watching the goings-on of the draft. The A's taking Tate surprised me but if Billy Beane thinks he's something special, it's not impossible to imagine that he could sell ownership on their one big purchase this year. The Indians with Shelby Miller and the Dbacks with Matt Purke rate pretty highly on the "Great Moments In Minor League Ball Mock Draft History That Will Never Happen In Real Life" scale, though. Also of note: James Paxton is taken by the Angels at No. 24 . . .keep this in mind, it's important later.

Supplemental first round: Pick #11, #43 overall. Selection: Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State

Having taken a polished college pitcher in round 1, I was naturally drawn to looking for upside in round 2. I quite liked the prep middle infielder class in this year's draft, and while personal favorite Jiovanni Mier was off the board, I was hopeful that Mychal Givens might get to me. I knew that David Renfroe would be very expensive, which meant that I couldn't think about him until the second round (no compensation for a supplemental pick, of course). Garrett Gould was still on the board, surprisingly, and I liked him too. Tons of live college arms (albeit with questions) were ripe for the picking, a side effect of the heavier-than-anticipated prep presence in round 1. Finally, I noticed that Tony Sanchez was still on the board, and he would have been a nice fit at 43. I loved Josh Phegley's bat but the defense concerns are pretty serious with him and with all the impact arms still on the board, it was hard to see taking a have-bat-will-travel guy.

Givens gets taken right away, should've expected that one. Renfroe somehow goes to the Dbacks at 35, which was just plain confusing. Round 2, sure, but in the supplemental? Gould and Sanchez get snapped up and my list of potential picks for this slot are looking pretty thin. I look back towards Phegley again along with power college arm Kyle Heckathorn, who was dropping like a rock and I wasn't sure why. The risk of Phegley turning into absolutely nothing for me took him out of the equation for this pick, and Heckathorn's raw talent made him an easy choice. Getting a power arm out of the college ranks with all the tools needed for pitching success made me a very happy man at this point. So now I've taken two college pitchers with my first two picks, albeit with radically different profiles.

Second round: Pick #8, #57 overall. Selection: Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State

Somebody moved quickly on Phegley in the supplemental round, which surprises me a bit as I would have liked to have considered him in the second round . . .but then again, all-bat catchers who can't play defense aren't exactly uncommon, so I didn't feel too bad. The Padres take Nick Franklin at the start of round 2, which hurt a little more . . .adding a prep middle infielder would have been a nice way to diversify my draft class, and I liked Franklin as a relatively safe pick. I had a list of guys for round 2 which ran a little longer than the supplemental round, actually, as the pool of players with signability concerns out-weighed the number of guys that I liked who happened to be taken in the supplemental. I loved Texas HS LHP Colton Cain's raw stuff and prep SS Billy Hamilton's tools, but I thought that both would just end up costing more money than I could see the real life Reds putting up - and there's a good chance that neither plays pro ball next year in real life anyways. More realistic targets were prep OF Slade Heathcott and Arizona prep pitcher Jason Barrett (who I really coveted). Lousiana HS pitcher Brady Colvin also intrigued me, and I thought that he'd go before Barrett so I had to consider him first. Arizona State OF Jason Kipnis was still on the board, and while he wasn't as toolsy as the sort of guy I was looking for with this pick, I couldn't argue with his bat. Last but not least, I had to continue to consider the possibility of MORE college pitching . . .Brad Boxberger of USC was a personal favorite, and then there was also James Paxton of Kentucky, who hadn't been taken yet to my great surprise.

Yes, that James Paxton. The one who was taken No. 24 by the Angels. Well, pseudo-me knows that there are PLENTY of other guys that I like, so what are the odds that I decide to roll the dice with a third college pitcher in as many picks?

The odds, in fact, proved to be 1:1, as I epic failed the draft by becoming the first person to take a player already taken, subjecting me to much scorn. I have heard that John Sickels actually swore under his breath after seeing my pick . . .on the bright side, it was in Romulan and I don't understand that language anyways.

Somebody gets insanely excited after my pick and jumps in and takes Colvin. While to preserve the draft I'm allowed to go back and re-pick, even considering Colvin at that point would just be rude, so I let that pick stand. Heathcott was off the board, which left Boxberger, Barrett, and Kipnis for me. I decided that I would take Boxberger in round 3 if I could but that I needed to break up my draft class a bit. I decide that while there is a pretty good possibility that Barrett is around in round 3 if I take Kipnis, there is NO WAY that Kipnis makes it past Arizona at No. 60 let alone my next pick at No. 88. So I take the super-solid bat of Kipnis and let Barrett go . . .which then causes me to swear in Romulan(?!) when Barrett is taken by the Yankees at No. 76. Bravo good sir, you got me. Apparently there were a bunch of other people thinking along the same lines as me re: signability, as they all go off the board in a big clump at the end of round 2 . . .Jeff Malm to the Jays at 68, Cain went to the Astros at 69, Brian Goodwin to the White Sox at 71, Billy Hamilton to the Red Sox at 77, Brooks Bogu . . .err, Raley to the Angels at 80.

Third round: Pick #8, #88 overall. Selection: Kyle Seager, 2B, University of North Carolina

So, I had reached the third round at long last, and yet I still had hard choices to make with plenty of enticing choices on the board. I had noticed that the college relief ranks had barely been touched, and Ben Tootle of Jacksonville State in particular leapt out to me as a huge value pick. However, I totally admit that by this point I definitely wanted to add another position player, preferably one who could add value through means other than his bat. Prep C Austin Maddox seemed like a nice idea - despite his shortcomings with his glove (although not his arm) and his need to refine his bat, he had the raw upside to spice up my draft class. Prep middle infielder Chris Owings was also an option, although I wasn't totally sold on his defensive value and his upside with the bat didn't thrill me enough to overcome that.

However, my mind ended up centering on two infielders from big-time college programs: Ryan Jackson, SS from Miami, and Kyle Seager, 2B/3B from UNC. Jackson's drop didn't surprise me at all - based on what I've seen from other Minor League Ball mock drafts, we're all about the numbers, and Jackson admittedly doesn't really bring that to the table. Of course, he's a major leaguer even if he hits .220 with that glove, and I love the idea of knowing that you're going to get SOMETHING out of a guy with a high pick. If somebody can figure out how to make his swing work well enough to get him to .250, he's a VERY nice regular player - I'd take that gamble. Seager appealed to me in other ways - maybe a Joe Randa type as a 3B (which I could live with), but as a 2B I could see him being a steady regular who surprises me with his offensive contributions.

Maddox went off the board before my pick, which left me absolutely certain that I would take one of Jackson or Seager. I knew that nms really liked Seager, and also that Mel Kiper Jr. had projected Cincinnati to take Seager in the real life draft at No. 88 . . .which meant that my selection of Seager was totally predictable. And yet, I couldn't argue with the choice and liked it so much, I made it my own. It was very hard leaving Jackson up on the board, but I like Seager's potential to be a regular significantly more and that's what sealed the deal for me.

So, ladies and gentlemen, if you've made it this far, I present to you now your 2009 Cincinnati Reds Mock Draft Class:

1) Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State

1S) Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennessaw State

2) Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State

3) Kyle Seager, 2B, North Carolina

May dougdirt have mercy on my soul.

Poll

So, how'd I do?

You nailed it, baby! Great pick, every pick!

6 votes

You did well! I like your draft, but it's not amazing.

31 votes

You did okay! I don't like your picks, but I like your reasoning.

10 votes

Did you over-indulge on the Skyline Chili or something?

6 votes

None of the above.

1 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

The Mock Draft and Accountability

mrkupe — Fri, 30 May 2008 16:45:10 -0000

With the 2008 mock draft fast approaching, I thought it'd be fun to go back and take a look at our own previous efforts and offer a candid self-assessment. The rules are simple: if you've taken part in a mock draft before, post your picks and then your thoughts.

I did not take part in the 2007 draft, but I did draft in 2005 and 2006 for the White Sox. Here's 2005:

1---15---Wade Townsend, RHP
3---95---Josh Lindblom, RHP, Harrison HS, West Lafayette, Ind.
4---125--Chris Robinson, C, University of Illinois
5---155---Josh Zeid, RHP, New Haven CT HS

My thoughts: Not a great go at it for me, although I was a bit of a newbie at the time to analyzing draft prospects. Townsend has sucked, although in fairness he also blew his arm out almost immediately after signing. Lindblom went unsigned by the Astros in real-life and went on to college. He's flourished as a reliever this year and projects to go in the first several rounds as a hard-throwing closer candidate. Robinson was drafted by the Tigers and then traded to the Cubs. Looks like his bat has stagnated in Double A. Zeid went on to college at Vanderbilt and then Tulane, but has been wracked with injuries and has barely pitched. So 2 years later, one guy who looks like he's still a solid prospect and a bunch of organizational fodder. Eh.

2006 went a bit better for me:

Adrian Cardenas, SS, Florida HS
Cory Rasmus, RHP, Alabama HS
Joe Benson, C-OF, Illinois HS
Charles Brewer, RHP, Arizona HS
Ryan Jackson, SS, Florida HS

My thoughts: I was basically down to Chris Tillman and Cardenas for the pick at 29. Tillman went at #18 IIRC in the mock making it an easy decision for me. Cardenas has moved to 2B but looks awfully good so far. Stock rapidly rising, although he may ultimately slot in better as a corner OF from a defensive standpoint. Rasmus hurt his shoulder and hasn't pitched in the last couple of years, but given his youth and the Braves' ability to bring their pitchers along there's still time for something. Benson was raw when drafted and still raw now, but hasn't been a disappointment. He's going to take some time to develop but the talent assessment appears to have been accurate enough. Brewer went unsigned as an 18th round pick and honored his commitment at UCLA - he'd probably pitch better as a pro but he wouldn't go 135 today. Jackson, glove guy with questionable bat, went on to the University of Miami. He didn't do much last year but has started to blossom offensively in 2007. He'd probably project as a high floor low ceiling utility guy were he in the draft today, but that's still a valuable prospect and there are plenty of guys like that who go as early as the sandwich round.

Your turn.

Revisiting the mrkupe Top 25 Pitchers (of Doom)

mrkupe — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:51:34 -0000

Some months back (December 28 to be exact), I posted a list of who I thought to be the top 25 pitching prospects in the game. It's very early in the evaluation process, having had only spring training and the first month of the season to see how our young arms have developed, but nonetheless I think it's interesting to see where I was right and where I was (ever-so-dreadfully) wrong. I think it's also fun to look at the guys that various other posters called me out on, for what they perceived to be an aggressive appreciation or depreciation of value. Finally, it serves as a quick "where are they now" reference guide for those who haven't paid much attention in the early going. My comments are posted beneath each name.

Buchholz, Clay

Shaky spring training, but looks good if slightly erratic in early going. Continues to have occasional issues with falling in love with secondary pitches, but nothing that maturation will not fix. Forecast has not changed, looks great. A 4.08 ERA for a rookie pitching out of Fenway in the AL East is outstanding, just ask Daisuke. Stock: Holding

Chamberlain, Joba

Still pitching great in relief, stuff looks awesome as ever. Not showing us anything we didn't already know but not really his fault. Continue to be very high on him, will be interesting to see how he translates his performance into a starting role at some point. Stock: Holding

Price, David

Looked very impressive in spring training, now currently out with forearm strain. Not sure if this is just an organization being extremely cautious (as the Rays tend to be with their pitchers) or something to be concerned about. I think the good balances out the bad here for the moment. Stock: Holding (or perhaps a slight dropoff if you're on the more cautious side concerning injuries)

Kershaw, Clayton

Became the toast of spring training by sticking in major league camp all of March. Made Sean Casey wish Youtube had never been invented. Now having few difficulties in Double A and beating down the door to the majors. He ranks behind only Buchholz on this list, and one can make a fair argument for him as No. 1. Combines a Mark Buehrle approach with a Barry Zito (Cy Young edition) curveball and Johan Santana fastball, which should give him a very good chance to make an immediate impact upon reaching the majors. Stock: Rising

Porcello, Rick

Aggressively sent to Florida State League, looks about as good as one can hope for with only some minor hiccups. Frontline starter stuff with nearly unheard of poise for such a young arm. Has jumped another notch or two . . .Grade A prospect to be sure, but still 4th best prospect on this list. Stock: Rising - should be interesting to see whether people prefer Porcello or Kershaw as the top pitching prospect still in the minors

Kennedy, Ian

In the process of falling apart against ML competition, not making me look real good. Probably needed at least a couple of months of consolidation time in the minors and perhaps more. Needs to reassert himself, may have to do it in the minors. Still like his chances of being at least a solid ML pitcher. Stock: Falling sharply but due to aggressive ranking and high expectations for a guy in his second year of pro ball more than anything else

Cueto, Johnny

Extremely aggressive approach for a young and very live arm has benefited him well against MLers not familiar with his stuff. Homer prone but great peripherals. Transitioning well all things considered and just needs some time to refine his approach. I think he fits just fine here, no higher and no lower. Stock: Rising slightly

Gonzalez, Gio

Pitching well but not exceptionally so in Triple A. Needs to refine his command against advanced batters but based on previous track record of steady improvement I have confidence in this. Note only one HR given up in 25 innings of PCL work. Should be a quality LH starter with the potential to be more than that. Mildly concerned that he may be leveling off but solid repertoire across the board means he should contribute in the majors in a meaningful way. Stock: Holding.

McDonald, James

ERA is ugly in the Southern League but peripherals look sharp as ever, and he's been hit-unlucky. Something of a work in progress but his combination of throwing strikes and solid stuff makes me think he could be a good one. Makes me think a lot of Joe Blanton, which can be a good or a bad thing depending on your perspective. Stock: Falling slightly

Davis, Wade

Continuing the transition from thrower to pitcher, Ks down but so are the walks. Overall line would look much better if not for Matt LaPorta. May need some time to put everything together, but he's in one of the better organizations for that and he could be excellent in time. Worst case health permitting is that he eats a ton of innings at the major league level with consistently solid performance. Best case is that he's a No. 2 starter, but I'm skeptical of projecting him as a true ace type. Stock: Holding

Horne, Alan

Has only pitched twice this year in Triple A, currently out with a biceps tendon tear in pitching arm. Looked okay in what little we saw of him but obviously this doesn't do much to mitigate concerns about his ability to avoid injury. I still like him as a guy with good stuff and improving command, but some caution should be exercised here. Stock: Falling

Morales, Franklin

When first writing this list, I had a comment next to his name: "will either post a 3.50 or a 6.00 ERA this year." Well . . .yeah. His mechanics are falling apart. Velocity has been all over the place and his control has regressed. Got destroyed in the majors before recent demotion. Still has promise if he can figure things out, but March and April have shown just how far he away he is from being a consistent major league contributor. Stock: Falling like a rock

Mulvey, Kevin

Looking great in Triple A, striking out plenty of batters with good control. Appears to be a nice bet to be at least a #3 starter in the majors. A finesse guy with markedly better-than-finesse-guy stuff, with developing confidence in that stuff. Hard to argue with anything about this guy, has responded very well to aggressive rate of promotion and has passed through every challenge with success. A very good prospect who might not get his due until he settles in at the major league level. Stock: Rising

McGee, Jacob

Has only one truly bad start on the year, but still a work in progress. Needs to harness his stuff - lots of walks and homers are not an inspiring combination . Note that while he strikes out plenty of RH batters, righties nonetheless hit him pretty well. The current version of the epitome of the high risk, high reward pitching prospect. Stock: Holding

Adenhart, Nick

Just promoted to the majors after 31 sterling innings in the PCL. Nibbles too much but stuff is very good across the board, as anyone who has seen him can attest. Starting to put things together, and I think the peripheral numbers will come around with good health and experience. Too smart and savvy to beat himself in the long-term. Stock: Rising

De Los Santos, Fautino

Striking out lots of batters in the Cal League but overall numbers are mediocre otherwise. Not terribly worried as the Cal League is especially hard for a raw arm who knows only one speed: hard. Hard not to be optimistic about a guy with solid heat and a sick slider. Makes me think a lot of Juan Cruz. Stock: Holding, but don't ask for too much too soon out of this one

Parra, Manny

Having adjustment issues in the majors, but then again 25 relatively crappy innings in the majors shouldn't count too much against him. Should be an above-average LH starter in time. Biggest concern would be that injury-prone tendencies kick in and interrupt his development at this crucial juncture. Stock: Holding

Bailey, Homer

Looked terrible in the spring, but pitching well to start the year in Triple A with much better control. Concerns about altering his mechanical approach with different pitches may take time or a promotion to bubble back to the surface. My guess is that he's still going to need a fair amount of consolidation time in the majors, but I'm more optimistic about him now than I was before the season. Stock: Rising

Anderson, Brett

Having few troubles with the Cal League as a 20 y/o, advanced approach and multiple present plus pitches suggest that he'll be ready to move up a level shortly. Does virtually everything you could want in a young pitcher other than burn up the radar gun, but different from many pitchers of that mold in that he already has pitches that will hold up against more advanced batters. A guy for both scouts and statheads to appreciate, one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. Stock: Rising rapidly

Cortes, Dan

Made three decent starts in Double A before hitting the DL with a left quad strain. Should be a solid innings eater at the major league level with the potential to be above-average. Not a good candidate for aggressive promotion but a guy who has a nice track record of steady improvement. Nothing to complain about here, but not much to say either. Stock: Holding

Alderson, Tim

Aggressively promoted to Cal League as 19 y/o, holding his own and then some. Quickly asserting himself as sabermetric darling due to very advanced command and performance record. Turning himself into one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, but some restraint is advised. His stuff is solid but not stellar across the board as a SP, and there is a fairly good chance that he will level out in higher levels of the minors. A high floor No. 3 SP is most likely, may be a No. 2 but we may have to wait and see how his stuff rates at higher levels. Stock: Rising sharply

Cahill, Trevor

Long-time personal favorite is making himself known with outstanding performance in the Cal League. I thought he'd look solid this year and then break out next year, but improved command of breaking stuff is letting him carve up A ball batters. Combination of athleticism, intelligence, and solid stuff across the board makes him a pretty good one. Stuff suggests a No. 3 starter but intangibles make me think he's a good candidate to pitch beyond that. Stock: Rising

Miller, Adam ("to be a pitching prospect, one must, in fact, pitch")

Finally pitching again in Triple A after missing much of the spring with finger injury. Has looked good in the early going but nobody has ever doubted his ability to look good in spurts. Probably should get a chance to contribute for the ML team by the middle of the season assuming he stays healthy, but frankly heavy skepticism about that assumption is warranted. I don't think we're seeing anything in Miller that we didn't already know, and the questions we have can only be answered with time. Stock: Holding

Robertson, Tyler

Sickels favorite pitching well in Florida State League, with lots of strikeouts and groundballs. Putting up a sub-3 ERA despite terrible luck on balls in play. Needs to refine his command but hard to argue with what he's doing. Should probably spend most/all of the year in A ball for his own good and then move up quickly after that. Stock: Rising

Volstad, Chris

Former first round pick is starting to put everything together. Has always been underrated by sabermetric community due to heavy reliance on outstanding sinker rather than his quality secondary offerings. Maturation has led to improvement in curveball and an increased willingness to use it, contributing to steady rise in strikeout rate. A smart pitcher who does almost everything very well and should only get better with time. Now one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, and a great example of why one should remember the minors are about development rather than statistical performance. Stock: Rising sharply

The mrkupe Top 25 Pitchers (of doom)

mrkupe — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 05:55:50 -0000

Greetings and salutations. I've spent the last two months under a huge pile of schoolwork trying to finish up my degree, and it's only been recently that I've gotten to really focus on things that I like to write about, like minor league baseball.

I decided to jump back into the fray by introducing my own top 50 prospects list. However, I'm pulling a John Sickels on this one and dividing those 50 prospects into two lists of 25, one comprised of pitchers and the other of position players. I would go into the reasons for that, but I think John has elaborated in the past on using such a methodology, and quite frankly I agree with it. While you could not combine the two lists to get my exact top 50 prospects (more than 25 hitters in that top 50, most likely), I think this system tends to display my feelings about players more accurately. I'm posting the first list of 25, that of pitchers, right now. I'm almost finished with the second list, but am going to hold it for another day or two.

A few house rules:

I place a somewhat higher premium than many on a player's present ability to contribute at the major league level. That means that not only do I incorporate a player's injury status into my thought process, but I also consider flaws in the player's approach that would cause them to fail at the major league level. In an interesting counter-balance, I actually hold this principle against younger prospects (who have more time to adjust) less often than I do against older prospects who are typically more set in their ways. One might think that favoring younger, riskier players in this respect would contradict myself. I think it just provides a more comprehensive perspective for myself.

I do not put much weight on how hard a player throws as an independent factor. Major league baseball players know how to hit a 95 MPH fastball, and this is in fact one of the things that differentiates a major leaguer from a minor leaguer. As a result, I tend to consider a pitcher's velocity as something within the overall context of the pitcher's approach and traits - more simply put, I evaluate guys as pitchers first, throwers second.

Am I a stathead? Nope. Am I a scouting junkie? Nope. I personally think I'm right in the middle of the spectrum. I do love evaluating statistics but I'm not married to them; this is but one of many reasons why I did not major in engineering or accounting.

Do I think I am always right? Nope. I encourage debate, dissent, outright kicking and screaming (away from the computer please). I feel confident in my opinions and the reasoning behind them, but truth be told, it's all essentially a learning exercise.

In any case, on with the show. Enjoy.

Buchholz, Clay
Chamberlain, Joba
Price, David
Kershaw, Clayton
Porcello, Rick
Kennedy, Ian
Cueto, Johnny
Gonzalez, Gio
McDonald, James
Davis, Wade
Horne, Alan
Morales, Franklin
Mulvey, Kevin
McGee, Jacob
Adenhart, Nick
De Los Santos, Fautino
Parra, Manny
Bailey, Homer
Anderson, Brett
Cortes, Dan
Alderson, Tim
Cahill, Trevor
Miller, Adam ("to be a pitching prospect, one must, in fact, pitch")
Robertson, Tyler
Volstad, Chris

2008 community prospect ratings: Ross Detwiler

mrkupe — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 05:38:55 -0000

This thread is for discussion of Ross Detwiler, LHP, Washington Nationals. Links to his minor league statistical record:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=33952
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Ross%20Detwiler&pos=P&sid=milb& ;t=p_pbp&pid=446321
http://firstinning.com/players/Ross-Detwiler-a/

In addition, here is a link to his Baseball Cube entry, which includes his college statistical record:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/Ross-Detwiler.shtml

Thread will be open for at least 48 hours. Keep in mind that you get one vote and only one vote, so hold off on clicking that little button until you've definitely made up your mind. Also remember that your vote represents your opinion of the prospect in question - NOT that of John Sickels, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect, or anybody else you can think of who might be capable of picking 100 names at random out of a hat.

I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1

the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.

for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.

Poll

How good a prospect is Ross Detwiler?

6

37 votes

1

1 votes

10

4 votes

5

6 votes

9

4 votes

4

3 votes

8

22 votes

3

1 votes

7

31 votes

2

0 votes

109 votes | Poll has closed

2008 community prospect ratings: Fernando Martinez

mrkupe — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 05:32:34 -0000

This thread is for discussion of Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets. Links to his minor league statistical record:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=30926
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Fernando%20Martinez&pos=OF&sid=mil b&t=p_pbp&pid=494686
http://firstinning.com/players/Fernando-Martinez-a/

I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

Poll

How good a prospect is Fernando Martinez?

5

6 votes

9

28 votes

4

2 votes

8

37 votes

3

1 votes

7

37 votes

2

1 votes

6

12 votes

1

1 votes

10

7 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

2008 community prospect ratings: Reid Brignac

mrkupe — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 05:29:13 -0000

This thread is for discussion of Reid Brignac, SS, Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Links to his minor league statistical record:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=1716
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Reid%20Brignac&pos=SS&sid=milb& ;t=p_pbp&pid=458582
http://firstinning.com/players/Reid-Brignac-a/

I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

Poll

How good a prospect is Reid Brignac?

4

2 votes

8

41 votes

3

0 votes

7

50 votes

2

0 votes

6

15 votes

1

0 votes

10

1 votes

5

0 votes

9

11 votes

120 votes | Poll has closed

2008 community prospect ratings: Chris Tillman

mrkupe — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 05:25:47 -0000

This thread is for discussion of Chris Tillman, RHP, Seattle Mariners. Links to his minor league statistical record:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=31507
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Chris%20Tillman&pos=P&sid=milb& ;t=p_pbp&pid=501957
http://firstinning.com/players/Christopher-Tillman-a/

I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

Poll

How good a prospect is Chris Tillman?

8

10 votes

3

3 votes

7

23 votes

2

0 votes

6

28 votes

1

2 votes

10

1 votes

5

11 votes

9

3 votes

4

6 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

2008 community prospect ratings: Brandon Jones

mrkupe — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 05:22:34 -0000

This thread is for discussion of Brandon Jones, OF, Atlanta Braves. Links to his minor league statistical record:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=7415
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Brandon%20Jones&pos=OF&sid=milb&am p;t=p_pbp&pid=447761
http://firstinning.com/players/Brandon-Jones-a/

I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

Poll

How good a prospect is Brandon Jones?

7

35 votes

2

0 votes

6

48 votes

1

0 votes

10

1 votes

5

12 votes

9

1 votes

4

1 votes

8

10 votes

3

0 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

Ross Detweiler Called Up

mrkupe — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 19:36:27 -0000

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=txnationalsmoves&prov=st&type=lgns

I'll be the first to say THEY'RE RUSHING HIM, HIS CAREER IS OVER!!! Or something.

I have to admit that I'm not a huge fan of Detweiler, but I always find it interesting to see how the stuff of pitchers coming almost straight out of college plays against major league level competition.

Any reactions? Personally I often like the idea of getting a guy acclimated to the big leagues from a mental standpoint, but I'm not sure that Detweiler profiles as a good candidate for that kind of exposure. I would've rather they rest him a little and then send him to Hawaii or maybe the AFL after an AA spot-start.