SBNation.com User Blog: mushin

National Football Post compares Joeckel to Fisher

mushin — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 18:46:29 -0000

National Football Post compares Joeckel to Fisher

Good read

Andy Reid is a good guy. Period.

mushin — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 20:31:50 -0000

Reid said Lurie asked him to call Kelly, and that he was happy to do so.

"As a coach, you want your players to be taken care of. You want them to have a good coach," Reid said. "Those are all kids that we kind of recruited there, drafted there, brought there. You wanted them to have something positive. I think Chip's a good football coach, I think it'll work out great for him. I think he put himself into a good organization."

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/dneagles/Andy-Celebrates-Birthday-in-Style.html

Vague, unsubstantiated rumors on SI that Geno Smith stock will drop before draft

mushin — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 19:30:28 -0000

Vague, unsubstantiated rumors on SI that Geno Smith stock will drop before draft

Take that for what it's worth.

Your 2013 QB Prospect Bowl Watching Guide

mushin — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 13:22:29 -0000

Your 2013 QB Prospect Bowl Watching Guide

Geno Smith vs Syracuse: Sat 12/29, 2:15 CST
Matt Barkley vs GA Tech: Mon 12/31, 1:00 CST
Landry Jones vs Texas A&M: Fri 1/4, 7:00 PM CST
Tajh Boyd vs LSU: Mon 12/31, 6:30 PM CST
Mike Glennon vs Vanderbilt: Mon 12/31, 11:00 AM CST

Peter King KC Haiku

mushin — Mon, 26 Nov 2012 21:44:47 -0000

Peter King KC Haiku

The Adieu Haiku

Colin Kaepernick.
Looks like I misjudged the lad.
Chiefs sound good, Alex?

Peter King's List of top coaching prospects

mushin — Mon, 26 Nov 2012 21:43:46 -0000

Peter King's List of top coaching prospects

I think these sound like the top five college coaching candidates for NFL head coaching jobs, per chats with front office people in the last two weeks (in order):

1. Chip Kelly, Oregon
2. David Shaw, Stanford
3. Brian Kelly, Notre Dame
4. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (even coming off the bad season at Iowa, he's well-respected in the NFL)
5. Doug Marrone, Syracuse.

I didn't include Bill O'Brien of Penn State because (and call me naïve) I can't see him preaching love of, and loyalty to, Penn State, and then leaving after 12 months. But never say never in this business.

6. I think these sound like the top 10 NFL assistants who will get sniffs for head coaching jobs in the league next year (in order):

1. Mike McCoy, Denver offensive coordinator
2. Mike Zimmer, Cincinnati defensive coordinator
3. Vic Fangio, San Francisco defensive coordinator
4. Perry Fewell, Giants defensive coordinator
5. Dirk Koetter, Atlanta offensive coordinator
6. Dave Toub, Chicago special teams coordinator
7. Bruce Arians, Indianapolis interim head coach/offensive coordinator
8. Ray Horton, Arizona defensive coordinator
9. Kyle Shanahan, Washington offensive coordinator
10. Clyde Christensen, Indianapolis quarterbacks coach.

What's your Monday Night Football sign?

mushin — Fri, 09 Nov 2012 14:50:16 -0000

What's your Monday Night Football sign?

I have great tickets in the lower level behind the visitor's bench that I bought before the season started. No way to change the plan.

So if you had tickets that would ensure Romeo and crew saw the sign you held, what sign would it be?

I quit. Get rid of Cassel and I might come back. I can't do it anymore. Fuck the Chiefs.

mushin — Sun, 30 Sep 2012 18:30:27 -0000

I quit. Get rid of Cassel and I might come back. I can't do it anymore. Fuck the Chiefs.

Mushin

This sums it up nicely

mushin — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 11:32:22 -0000

This sums it up nicely

Thank god for everything...— Jamaal Charles (@jcharles25) August 11, 2012

mushin — Sat, 11 Aug 2012 06:02:18 -0000

Thank god for everything...— Jamaal Charles (@jcharles25) August 11, 2012

https://twitter.com/jcharles25/status/234165246246395904

NFL Network Chiefs Preseason Games re-air schedule

mushin — Fri, 27 Jul 2012 17:21:32 -0000

NFL Network Chiefs Preseason Games re-air schedule

Game 1: Fri, 8/10 vs Ari- Re-airs Mon, 8/13, 10:00AM

Game 2: Sat, 8/18 @ StL- Re-airs Mon, 8/20, 1:00 PM

Game 3: Fri, 8/24 vs Sea- Re-airs Sun, 8/26, 3:00 AM

Game 4: Thurs, 8/30 @ GB- Live on 8/30 at 6:00PM Arrowhead Time

That's a LONG time for out of market fans to avoid AP if they want to see each game for the first time without preconceptions.

Kirwan talking Poe's contract

mushin — Thu, 26 Jul 2012 15:59:26 -0000

Kirwan talking Poe's contract

Eagles blogger talking AFC West for Scout's Notebook

mushin — Wed, 11 Jul 2012 20:25:35 -0000

Eagles blogger talking AFC West for Scout's Notebook

I’m going with KC as the team to watch.

Eric Berry will rise from the ashes of the ACL to ascend to the throne at the top of the AFC West. He will then cure cancer, end world hunger, and force Katy Perry to quit singing so that we can all live in a world worth having.

PSST...The draft is really important (Conclusions Edition)

mushin — Mon, 18 Jun 2012 17:40:25 -0000

In case you missed the first four posts in this series of about the importance of drafting and the AFC West you can find the the proceeding articles with the links below.

So what's it all mean?

I've spent the last week throwing lots of numbers and facts at you. After all this you'd think we can project what each team is going to do for the next 3-5 years based on all this data.

Maybe someone else can, but I can't.

A successful football season has too many variables that effect the outcome of any given season. Coaching, injuries, match-ups, team chemistry, weather, officiating, free agency, etc... It's one of the primary reasons I love the game.

But none of those other potential potholes hold a candle to a lack of talent.

The draft is the single most important factor to help define a team's fortunes. I don't believe that a team's success can be predicted, but I do believe that you can see trends that help predict long-term failure. You should also be able to predict if a team has a chance to be competitive if all other factors remain to the positive.

Conclusions

In case you missed the first four posts in this series of about the importance of drafting and the AFC West you can find the the proceeding articles with the links below.

So what's it all mean?

I've spent the last week throwing lots of numbers and facts at you. After all this you'd think we can project what each team is going to do for the next 3-5 years based on all this data.

Maybe someone else can, but I can't.

But none of those other potential potholes hold a candle to a lack of talent.

Conclusions

The AFC West, as a whole, has fallen on hard times and it's easy to see why. The Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders were horrible at identifying and acquiring talent through the draft from 2001-2010. The Chargers were the most successful drafting team during this ten year span and held the AFC West in thrall for 10 years as a result. These are the facts.

For a week now I've shown you individual team draft statistics and told you to take my word that this team did better than that team. Unless you've been jumping from post to post or have gone digging up the references yourself you've been accepting these facts or taken them at face value for the sake of conversation and moved on.

So let's look at all these team drafts side-by-side.

I've taken the liberty of picking a winner from each draft class in the division. The class in the table below that is highlighted in yellow is who I perceive as the winner of that year's draft. The 'grading' scale is weighted based on All Pros, Pro Bowlers, then Starters:

* = Starter (Must have started 16 games with team to qualify)
+ = Pro Bowler
# = All Pro
BOLD = Players still with the team
SWT= "still with team"

via img840.imageshack.us

I apologize for the blurry image. If there is a way to create tables in the SB space I haven't figured it out. So Excel, Photobucket and Image Shack it is. If you click on the table it will take you to a larger image that is easier to read as well.

Couple of ground rules before you shred me. (I'm looking at you ksraidercte1)

For the draft winners, I went purely off the All Pro / Pro Bowl / Starter system. I can find no other way to make this work.

In 2009, for example, Denver, KC and Oakland all drafted two starters while San Diego drafted one. I personally think Tyson Jackson gives the Chiefs the victory in that draft to date, but that's my inner-homer. (No really, he's the number one run-stopping 3-4 DE in the league, and he has great hair and...crap). So it's a three way tie for now between Oakland, Denver and Kansas City with San Diego loser to date.

Which brings us back to the main point, predicting the future, sort of.

Here's the draft break down by the numbers for the division over the decade. Once again (and throughout this post) a yellow square indicates an advantage in the given category to the corresponding team.

via img407.imageshack.us

Damn you San Diego!!! Or better yet, Damn you Carl Peterson!!!!

San Diego has a 17% Pro Bowl Rate. The Chargers have an 8% All Pro rate. The next closes is KC and it's not that close.

I haven't done the research, but I believe you'd be hard pressed to find that kind of draft disparity between one team and the other 3 in their divsion throughout the NFL. Maybe the Patriots in the AFC East....maybe....

Here's the translation on the football field 2 years later in terms of record, division titles, etc... from 2003-2011. Again, a "winner" for each category has been identified. Hope you Denver fans weren't hoping for a surprising finish. And if the Chiefs fans were...shame on you.

NOTE: Average finish in the division was found by adding up the finishing postions (1,2,3,4) and awarding 1 to lowest, 2 to 2nd lowest, etc...

via i292.photobucket.com

The greatest draft disparity within the division occured in the early part of the decade from 2001-2007. Want to see some REALLY ugly numbers? Let me qualify that, ugly numbers for everyone but Chargers fans.

Draft Numbers from 2001-2007:

via i292.photobucket.com

And just to put the dagger in the soul of everyone outside of San Diego Charger-land, here's the season totals for the corresponding years of 2003-2009:

via i292.photobucket.com

Maybe I should buy a Chargers jersey.

Screw that. You ever been to Qualcom? I have...

The inspiration for this entire series of posts came back in April when wustl_chiefs_fan submitted a FanPost titled "Are the Chargers Regressing?" He focused primarily on whether Rivers had been injured or not. Somewhere in the discussion the San Diego drafts were reviewed and I noticed something. The last few drafts by AJ Smith had been horrible. ~~Carl Peterson~~ Al Davis horrible. (Carl usually found a 1st round stud, then blew the rest)

As always, judge for yourself.

It's been changed up a little this time. I've included all the draft picks for all teams from 2008-2010.

* = Starter (Must have started 16 games with team to qualify)
+ = Pro Bowler
# = All Pro
BOLD GREEN= Players still with the team
Green Italics= Has not played 16 games with team and is still with team RED= No longer with team
RED BOLD= No longer with team, but played 16 games for the team that drafted them
Red Italics= No longer with team and did not played 16 games with team and

via img228.imageshack.us

Here's the table describing the AFC West Draft numbers from 2008-2010.

via i292.photobucket.com

Over this short time period, the Chiefs matched or beat every other team in the division.

I know, I know, "You're only breaking these drafts out this way because KC started drafting well in 2008". In all honesty that thought did cross my mind.

But 2008 is when San Diego started to draft badly. As much as I love my Chiefs, they have to catch the Chargers. You can believe that or not.

Whatever you believe, just note that EVERY team in the division had superior drafts in comparison to San Diego from 2008-2010. The only category where the Chargers outperformed another team was in player retention percentage in comparison to Denver. (San Diego had 52% draft pick retention, Denver had 35% retention)

Denver drafted an All Pro.

Point Broncos.

One last blurry table before we get to the meat of things here. I warn you, this is the most unfair table of them all. Twain's "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics" doesn't seem harsh enough. But if we're going to see it for every other draft period we need to see it for this one.

Below is the season result table for 2010-2011. Two seasons is a very short time to try to gauge anything about drafted players, let alone view drafting and team trends. Outliers turn a strange occurrence into what looks like a hard, immutable fact that can destroy your ability to perceive the truth.

Take this one with a grain of salt.

The 2010-2011 season results table:

via i292.photobucket.com

Alright. We have tons of data and now there are colors involved. Seems like we should wrap things up before we start breeding flow charts and demanding TPS reports.

San Diego Chargers

After ruling the roost for the past years, things have started to change. I've tried to show that the Chargers have not drafted as well in recent years. Maybe you're a Charger fan and want to argue how good the players are that SD drafted. Too subjective. Try this statement instead.

San Diego has not drafted as well as their counterparts in the division from 2008-2010. Any arguments?

We can talk all day about the talent that Ryan Matthews posses. I don't care. I need hard facts. For whatever the reason, Matthews has not put it together and the Chargers have suffered after selecting him and giving up other picks to get him.

I don't mean to pick on Matthews (maybe just a little). He just seems to be the poster child for where the Chargers are right now. Tons of talent, under-performs, always has an excuse why it happened and the fan base/coach follows with "just wait till next week, month, year, etc...."

But Matthews is just one pick. Ryan could turn it around this season and start on a journey to become a Hall of Fame running back to rival LT. It still wouldn't help with 08 or 09.

As the Chiefs fans can tell you, drafting one world beater a draft will not get you anything but an increase in jersey sales for that player. Whiff on 6 of your 7 picks and that one guy is going to look really good during losing seasons.

Who am I talking to here? San Diego knows all about this. Think LT early in his career.

Face it, the Chargers have strung together 3 bad drafts. They still have 18 of the players that led them to divisional supremecy on the squad, so it's not like they are going away anytime soon. Depth is gone though, and there's not a lot to reload with when those guys start to decline. At the very least, SD is not the same dominate force they were.

Of the 6 All Pros drafted from 2001-2011 there are only two left. Nate Kaeding and Eric Weddle. Weddle should be a fixture in the defense for years to come. Kaeding is a kicker...not sure where to go with that one but I'm sure San Diego fans will think of something.

If your starters aren't coming from the draft they come from UDFA's or free agency.

In 2009, before the drafted players began to dry up, San Diego used ZERO free agents as starters on offense. On defense in 2009 there was one imported free agent starting. Ian Scott.

In 2010 when the draft class of 2008 should have been stepping in, AJ Smith was forced to use Michael McNeill to back fill for an injured Antonio Gates. The defense went from one free agent starting to two free agents starting. Garay and Burnett.

2011? Still only had McNeill as a FA on offense, but now the defense had 3 free agents starting. Garay, LaBoy and Spikes. It should have had 4 . Bob Sanders only played in and started 2 games before UDFA Gregory had to step back in.

Sense a pattern?

I'm not really up on my 2012 Chargers squad, but I'm pretty sure that the only homegrown WR left is 2nd year man Vincent Brown. Those free agent numbers are going up again.

Never count out a team with a QB like Rivers. But never count on any one player to consistently beat teams with more talent from 1-53 either.

I don't pretend to know what San Diego's draft class of 2011 or 2012 is going to be. I do know what the free agency monkey looks like though. And it sure looks like the Chargers are forming a habit.

Next thing you know your going to see AJ Smith running out of a free agent truck stop late at night, cops hot on his heels, with Dan Snyder matching him stride for stride.

Everybody is going to have bad draft classes and free agency can be that bridge to get you through the rough patches. Maybe that's all this is. Maybe.

If free agency becomes your panacea to solve draft woes you're in trouble. The best you can hope for is to have Shanahan-like success and be competitive but not quite there. The worst is...

Denver Broncos

I really don't want to talk about Manning. No choice.

Manning is blah, blah, blah, greatest ever, Hall of Famer, please bless my children and heal my puppy, have my baby, etc, etc... It's what he could mean for the draft picks of 2010 that is going to be interesting.

It's hard to get a read on Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Both came out raw. They had the whole Tebow thing to work with and did better than good with a bad throwing QB. If Manning is healthy and, well, Manning, the Denver 2010 class could rival or even surpass the Chief's 2010 class. Manning has a history of turning pedestrian WR's into pro bowlers, good receivers into All Pros and great receivers into Hall of Famers.

Denver still has the 2 All Pros they drafted on the squad. Dummervill and Clady. Plus there's the senior statesman of All Pros Champ Bailey. Champ may be an import but he's been there for 7 years. He may have even bought a home in the Denver area by now.

I don't really want to get into anyone's 2011 draft picks. The year was just so weird and there is not enough info, but Von Miller won defensive rookie of the year. He's already made noise in the NFL and needs to be mentioned.

Honestly, Denver is the hardest team to figure out. They haven't drafted well and are relying on a free agent. But that free agent is Peyton friggin Manning.

The coaching job that John Fox and company did last year may have been the finest I've ever seen. To create an entire offense on the fly to fit a QB who wasn't a QB and actually win, not just regular season games, but a playoff game as well....man I hate the Broncos.

I leave Denver with this. I honestly feel that injuries will cripple this team. It won't take many either. The team is not deep due to poor drafting over the years. If they are healthy they should challenge for the AFC West crown and beyond (ground breaking statement I know). If the injury bug bites one of the few years with Manning will go to waste.

And if Manning isn't what Elway dreams about at night, or the injury bug strikes Peyton himself, the hole Denver finds itself in may be as deep as the one KC jumped into in 08.

Oakland Raiders

8-8 two years in a row. Holy crap. Everybody better be watching for four guys on horses riding through the neighborhood and start getting right with Jesus.

Raiders fans love to trumpet the talent they have on their team. They are right. When healthy the Oakland Raiders can play with anyone in the league. But their roster is unbelievably thin.

No team in the league has mismanaged personnel as badly as the Raiders over the last decade. We already went down that road. No need to rehash it all.

There is light at the end of the tunnel though. McKenzie is changing the way Oakland does business. No more high priced free agents. No more drafting for style over substance. And all the right words are coming out of the front office.

The Raiders are coming back, just not this year in my opinion.

Is it possible the Raiders rise up and take the AFC West? Absolutely . Is it likely? Absolutely not.

The team is being gutted to a large extent. Oakland is not going through the wholesale firesale that KC went through. The flip side is that Oakland does not have 12 draft picks to start the process with either.

The changes in the squad are minor in comparison to the changes in the front office and staff. If you think 40+ years of Al Davis is going to go away in an off season you're in for a shock. I know Raider-nation loves Al but the issues with Oakland are as much about the Al's culture as anything else. That includes all that goes with it: the penalties, the attitude, and the on-field implosions.

KC only had Herm Edwards for 3 years before half the team was eating itself out of the league. The screams were heard round the entire mid-west when Haley came in with a different way of doing business.

Toss in a history of drafts from hell and the Raiders are going to have a hard time competing this year.

Sorry. Call em as I see em.

Denver/Oakland

If any of the Bronco or Raiders fans are reading this, thank you for taking the time. I hope I helped you to see your teams in a different light. There's a lot of data here, feel free to take it and run with it for your respective teams.

The team I was most concerned with was San Diego, but wanted to take a brief look at Denver and Oakland as well.

I'm not going to claim II know a lot about your teams, certainly not enough to make any kind of bold statements about the future beyond "they've both had better drafts than San Diego and worse drafts than Kansas City from 2008-2010".

I do believe the entire AFC West is coming back after 10 years of bleh. See what happens when you let the Chargers out from under the stairs where they lived with the Seahawks for 20 years.Shame on us all for that.

~~Good luck.~~ May your beer be cold, the games good and the Chiefs kick the ever loving #@% out of your team for the next 10 years. :)

Kansas City Chiefs

I've done my best to be objective as I can throughout these posts, minus a verbal jab at the other teams in the division from time to time. I'm not really objective though. I am a Chief's fan through and through. So let me preface the rest of this piece by saying,

If you are a Chiefs fan and you're not excited about the direction this team is going you need to be flogged.

For the first time in a decade the Chiefs have "won" the draft or kept even with the other teams in the AFC West for 3 straight years. I'd put those three draft classes up against any team in the NFL.

Let's do just that. Here's the 08-10 draft classes when compared to the last three Super Bowl Winners using the same criteria as with the AFC West.

via img580.imageshack.us

Man do I want to give 2010 to KC, but Pierre-Paul is an All Pro in his 2nd year. That's hard to ignore. For the sake of appearing objective I'll give it to New York.

But it ain't over New York.

The Green Bay class of 09 is simply outstanding. Especially when you take into account how ridiculously bad that draft was.

KC took 08 hands down.

Green Bay's class was world's away from everyone on that list, but KC's other draft classes from 08-10 make up for it. Simply put, the Chiefs 08-10 are on par with the elite teams in the league.

But the best part is, it doesn't matter if KC's draft classes are better than New Orleans, Green Bay or New York's. That will only matter if Kansas City meets them in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have to win a playoff game first.

What matters for the moment is out-drafting the rest of the AFC West and getting into the playoffs. KC has the out-drafting the AFC West part covered for 2008-2010. The rest is on the players and coaching staff.

So what does that guarantee for KC? Not a damn thing.

San Diego out-drafted the division and 99% of the league for a decade. No rings and a losing record in the playoffs to show for it.

Off the top of my head some potential problems that could get in the way within the division:

KC is the worst in the division at the most important position.
Peyton Manning is in the division.
Oakland has had the Chief's number the last few years.
San Diego is older, but still semi-loaded for bear with a Pro Bowl QB.
And, as 2011 taught us, having the NFL All IR team just makes you graduate from beer to whiskey on game day.

I could go on listing hurdles till training camp and still miss a few.

Who thought the topic of importing women could help to cause distractions or that it was even a topic that could cause issues?

Gum wrappers anyone?

We didn't touch the draft class of 2011 and those guys are just as important as anyone else.

Houston looked good down the stretch, but not as good as Von Miller. Baldwin has flashed in OTA's and had a couple of spectacular grabs during the regular season. Denarius Moore has flashed just as often but in game situations as opposed to OTA's.

I will say that no pick from the 2011 San Diego class has flashed as much potential as the top performers from Oakland, Denver or Kansas City. 4 years of bad drafting? Friggin sweet. Take those powder blue jerseys and shove them up your...

But I digress.

The potholes that are lurking out there that could potentially derail the Chiefs are too numerous to mention and that's not what this is about anyway.

This is about the draft. And my friends, everything that can be done on that front has been done in terms of success. You can argue the individual picks but you can't argue that overall the Chief's front office has done a fine job of identifying talent to help the team.

Thank you Carl Peterson. I know I shredded you (and you deserved it), but you also laid the groundwork for what is to come.

Thank you Scott Pioli. I don't know if you're the warm, loving friend from War Games or the ruthless, micro-managing maniac from the newspaper reports. I don't particularly care. You have done a magnificent job in a short time as the GM when it comes to the draft. Thank you.

And thank you all for reading this, whatever kind of fan you are.

Last thought:

If you didn't know KC was coming, consider yourself informed.

PSST...The draft is really important (The Chiefs Edition)

mushin — Mon, 18 Jun 2012 14:57:07 -0000

From the FanPosts. -Joel

In case you missed the first three posts in this series of posts about the importance of drafting and the AFC West you can find the the preceding stories with the links below.

San Diego Chargers

Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos

The Chiefs were a force to be reckoned with during the 90's. Despite not winning a super bowl KC won more home games than any other team in the NFL, except the San Fransisco 49ers. During the Marty years Kansas City was a competitive team year after year. They just couldn't get over the hump and Marty was let go.

After 2 forgettable years under the leadership of Gunther Cunningham, KC got a new lease on life with the introduction of Dick Vermeil as the head coach. Suddenly the Chiefs appeared to be players for the division again.

Little did any of us realize that KC was going to look at what both Denver and Oakland did wrong, copy it, and find a whole new way to fail that was all Kansas City.

Before you click that link let me warn you, I am not going to be kind. Think I tore up Oakland and Denver? That was nothing. I wanted to know why my Chiefs went from NFL force to NFL afterthought. I believe I have identified that reason and have laid it out here.

If you are wearing any kind of Red/Gold colored glasses about the last decade be forewarned. It's going to be ugly, vicious and nothing but the truth.

Kansas City Chiefs

From the FanPosts. -Joel

In case you missed the first three posts in this series of posts about the importance of drafting and the AFC West you can find the the preceding stories with the links below.

San Diego Chargers

Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos

Little did any of us realize that KC was going to look at what both Denver and Oakland did wrong, copy it, and find a whole new way to fail that was all Kansas City.

If you are wearing any kind of Red/Gold colored glasses about the last decade be forewarned. It's going to be ugly, vicious and nothing but the truth.

Kansas City Chiefs

Still with me? Don't say I didn't warn you...

Man was 2003 fun. Points being scored. Wins being secured. Excitement back in Arrowhead. But Vermeil leaned HEAVILY on veterans from earlier drafts and veteran free agents to secure those wins.

The team managed to go 13-3 and win the division, but there were warning signs. Of the 11 starters on offense, only 3 were drafted by KC. (Gonzalez, Tait, Shields). Brian Waters and Tony Richardson were homegrown UDFAs.

Here's your list of 2003 FA offensive Chiefs: Green, Roaf, Holmes, Weigman, Kennison and Morton

Over half of the starting offense came from free agency. The average age of those free agents...31.3 years....uh-oh...

Think about that. Every skill position on offense was a veteran FA. All of the offensive starters were established veterans, the youngest being Brian Waters at age 26. There was no youth on the offensive side of the ball. Fun as 2003 was, it spelled doom for the Chiefs on offense throughout the rest of the decade.

"But wait Mushin!! The reason that all those free agents were on the offense was because Vermeil and Peterson were drafting for defense"

Oh yeah, the defense...where all those draft picks ended up. The same defense that averaged a rank of 25th from 2003-2007 in yards given up and 17th in points allowed during the same time.

KC drafted ~~19 or~~ 20 defensive players during the Vermeil era. ~~I say 19 or 20 because Jared Allen was actually drafted as a long snapper. But hell, I'll give you Allen.~~ So 20 players. 2 made the Pro Bowl. Jared Allen and Derrick Johnson. I'll even give you the benefit of the doubt with DJ who didn't make the Pro Bowl until 2011.

Editors Note: the Long Snapper rumor has proved to a rumor. It makes for a better story, but in the interest of truthiness it has been removed.

So the best defensive picks under Peterson and Vermeil were a ~~long snapper~~ 4th round small school DE who turned in to a Hall of Famer against all odds and a LB who took roughly 6 years and 3 coaches to put it together.

That's the definition of not getting it done.

The 2003 team was symptomatic of everything that was going wrong with the Chiefs on the talent acquisition front. Even thought they went 13-3, they missed on multiple draft picks and relied on veteran FA's at the end of their careers to bail them out.

On offense those fantastic FA's were all nearing the end of their careers. By the time Edwards "youth purge" occurred in 2008, the only offense starters from 2003 that were left to be purged were Casey Weigman and Eddie Kennison. Green left in 2006 and played two more forgettable years with Miami and St Louis. Weigman was, well, Weigman (love ya man) and kept playing till 2011 (probably).

The rest of KC's FA starters from 2003? Every one of them was out of the league by the end of 2007.

Enter Herm Edwards.

Let me preface this by saying I didn't like Edwards as a coach. His offensive philosophies made Bill Muir look like an innovator. The offense was putrid. The defense he inherited was not up to the job that Edwards' 'defense and punt' style of play required. To make matters worse, under Edwards the entire team was undisciplined and out of shape.

Still, it took a lot of courage to completely blow up a team and start from scratch. It cost Edwards his job but it also may be the best thing that has happened in Kansas City since the drafting of Derrick Thomas.

Respect to Edwards. Thank you sir.

12 draft picks in 2008 didn't hurt either.

Kansas City began a ground up rebuild that is still in progress today. But in order to fully appreciate why it happened you have to take a look at the drafts from 2001-2008 to see just how deep the hole Carl Peterson had dug for this team.

With the other teams I limited the draft lists to players that put in at least 16 games with the team that drafted him. This time we'll look at the whole ugly truth.

Draft History Legend:

* = Starter (Must have started 16 games with team to qualify)
+ = Pro Bowler
# = All Pro
S= Players still with the team
Players in ITALICS did not play 16 full games with the team

Kansas City Draft History (2001-2010) / Regular Season Records (2003-2011)

2001 Draft Class / 2003 Record 13-3

2003 AFC West Champs, Divisional Round Loss

Eric Downing, DT (2nd round pick)
Snoop Minnis, WR
Monty Beisel, LB *
George Layne, RB
Bill Baber, TE
Derrick Blaylock, RB
Alex Sulfsted, OT
Shaunard Harts, S*
Terdell Sands, DT

2002 Draft Class / 2004 Record 7-9

2004 3rd in AFC West

Ryan Sims, DT *
Eddie Freeman, DE
Omar Easy, FB
Scott Fujita, LB *
Maurice Rodriguez, LB

2003 Draft Class / 2005 Record10-6

2005 2nd in AFC West

Larry Johnson, RB * + #
Kawika Mitchell, LB *
Julian Battle, CB
Brett Williams, OT
Jordan Black, OT *
Jimmy Wilkerson, DE
Montique Sharpe, DT
Willie Pile, S

2004 Draft Class / 2006 Record 9-7

2006 2nd in AFC West, AFC Wildcard Team, Wildcard Round Loss

Junior Siavii, DT (2nd round pick)
Kris Wilson, FB/TE *
Keyaron Fox, LB
Samie Parker, WR *
Jared Allen, LS / DE * + #
Jeris McIntyre, WR
Kevin Sampson, OT

2005 Draft Class / 2007 Record 4-12

2007 3rd in AFC West

Derrick Johnson, LB * + # S
Dustin Colquitt, P * S
Craphonso Thorpe, WR
Boomer Grigsby, LB
Alphonso Hodge, DB
Will Svitek, OT
Khari Long, DE
James Kilian, QB
Jeremy Parquet, T

2006 Draft Class / 2008 Record 2-14

2008 4th in AFC West

Tamba Hali, DE / OLB * + # S
Bernard Pollard, S *
Brodie Croyle, QB
Marcus Maxey, DB
Tre Stallings, OG
Jeff Webb, WR
Jarrad Page, S *

2007 Draft Class / 2009 Record 4-12

2009 4th in AFC West

2008 Draft Class / 2010 Record 10-6

2010 AFC West Champs, Wildcard Round Loss

Glenn Dorsey, DT /DE * S
Branden Albert, OT/OG/QB/K/LS * S
Brandon Flowers, CB * S
Jamaal Charles, RB * + # S
Brad Cottam, TE
DaJuan Morgan, DB
Will Franklin, WR
Brandon Carr, CB *
Barry Richardson, OT *
Kevin Robinson, WR
Brian Johnston, DE
Mike Merritt, TE

2009 Draft Class / 2011 Record 7-9

2011 4th in AFC West

Tyson Jackson, DE * S
Alex Magee, DE
Donald Washington, DB S
Colin Brown, OT
Quinten Lawrence, WR / S
Javarris Williams, RB
Jake O'Connell, TE S
Ryan Succop, K * S

2010 Draft Class / 2012 Record ????

Eric Berry, S * + S
Dexter McCluster, OW S
Javier Arenas, CB S
Jon Asamoah, OG * S
Tony Moeaki, TE S
Kendrick Lewis, S * S
Cameron Sheffield, LB S

The draft numbers for 2001-2010

80 total picks (39 Defense, 38 Offense, 3 K/P)
28 Starters
7 Pro Bowlers
4 All Pros
2 AFC West Championships
1 Wild Card Berth
19 of the 80 draft picks during this time are still with the team

KC's overall draft numbers for the decade are better than Oakland's and Denver's. And you have to give Peterson his due on his 1st rounders.

Out of 7 first round picks between 2001-2010 he drafted 7 starters, 4 Pro Bowlers (LJ, Hali, DJ, Bowe) and 3 All Pros (LJ, Hali, DJ).

The only first round mega-bust was Sims (who still qualified as a starter for the team). Albert hasn't made a Pro Bowl but he's a definite keeper. And for you Dorsey haters, Dorsey ain't no Sims.

It was any pick outside of the 1st round that sucked Raider for Carl Peterson.

58 picks from rounds 2-7 between 2001-2008. 16 players from round 2-7 that started 16 games for KC. 2 Pro Bowlers (Allen, Charles), 2 All Pro (Allen, Charles).

Take out the 2008 class and the numbers drop to 46 picks, 12 starters, 1 Pro Bowler, 1 All Pro.

For comparison, San Diego's draft stats in rounds 2-7 for 2001-2007 are: 48 picks, 19 starters, 8 Pro Bowlers, 2 All Pro's. I did not count Gates, so you can throw one HoF UDFA to those number if you'd like.

Is there any wonder the Chargers were bashing in KC's head from 2003-2009?

To make matters worse, while San Diego was killing Peterson in the draft, and as we saw yesterday, the Broncos were running away with the free agency race.

I did mention in yesterday's post that Carl Peterson and Vermeil managed to sign 3 Pro Bowl free agents, 2 of which became All Pro's for the Chiefs. (Green, Holmes, Roaf). All three were brought onboard in 2002. You could make a good argument that it was the greatest free agent class of any team ever. Especially when you factor in that Kennison and Morton were also added in 2002. One year later KC was 13-3 on the back of that class.

Too bad CP used up almost all of his free agent magic in 2002.Things went down hill from there. Actually, it might be easier if you judge for yourself:

KC Offensive Starter Free Agent Aquisitions from 2003-2007. (didn't want to count the purge of '08 to be as fair as possible here)

John Welbourn, RT/ OG, signed in 2004 from Philly, 4 years w/ KC, age 28 at signing
Damon Huard, QB, signed in 2006 from NE, 3 years w/ KC, age 33 at signing
Chris Terry, OT, signed in 2006 from Sea, 2 years w/ KC, age 31

KC Defensive Starter Free Agent Aquisitions from 2003-2008

Vonnie Holliday, DE, signed in 2003 from GB, 2 years w/ KC, age 28 at signing
Shawn Barber, LB, signed in 2003 from Philly, 3 years w/ KC, age 28 at signing
Dexter McLeaon, CB, signed in 2003 from StL, 3 years w/ KC, age 30 at signing
Lionel Dalton, DT, signed in 2004 from Wash, 2.2 years w/ KC (cut after 2 games into the 2006 season), age 29 at signing
Kendrell Bell, LB, signed in 2005 from Pitt, 3 years w/ KC, age 27 at signing
Patrick Surtain, CB, signed in 2005 from Miami, 4 years w/ KC, age 29 at signing
Sammy Knight, S, signed in 2005 from Miami, 2 years w/ KC, age 30 at signing
Ron Edwards, DT/NT, signed in 2006 from Buf, 5 years w/ KC, age 27 at signing
James Reed, DT, signed in 2006 from NYJ, 2 years w/KC, age 29 at signing
Ty Law, CB, signed in 2006 from NYJ, 2 years w/ KC, age 32 at signing
Alphonso Boone, signed in 2007 from Chi, 2 years w/ KC, age 31 at signing
Napoleon Harris, signed 2007 from Min, 1 year w/KC, age 28 at signing
Donnie Edwards, signed 2007 from SDG after realizing that letting him go may have been the biggest non-QB mistake in franchise history, 2 years w/KC, age 34 at signing

As you can see the Chiefs were despreately searching for defensive help from 2003-2007. So back to the scoreboard for the 2001-2005 drafts and the 2003-2007 regular seasons....

2001-2005 drafts: 39 picks. 20 of the picks on defense (54%). 1 defensive player that made the Pro Bowl during this time (~~the converted long snapper~~ Allen made it in 2007, DJ isn't counted). 1 Defensive All Pro.

To compensate, KC started 13 defensive FA's from 2003-2007 in place of the draft picks should have been taking over. The free agents played an average of 2.5 years with the Chiefs and had an average age of 29.3 years.

Oh, and they weren't very good.

Surtain was solid. Ron Edwards was a rock that did whatever was asked. Ty Law flashed at times. But overall the free agency starters that KC used were meh...at best.

But lets not leave the offensive draft picks out of this either.

17 offensive picks from 2001-2005. 4 Starters, 1 Pro Bowler, 1 All Pro.

Peterson did draft LJ during this time. Kudos to CP. The only other offensive players drafted from 2001-2005 to qualify as starters for this post; Jordan Black, Kris Wilson and Samie Parker. I feel dirty naming those three as offensive starters.

Feel free to kick a puppy at this point if you need to.

CP did draft Colquitt in the 2nd round of 2005, so there's a bit of silver lining if you need one. Hey, it gave Edwards the weapon he needed to implement his offense.

Miss on virutally every draft pick not in the first round and get blown out off the water by another team in your division. STRIKE 1

Use overpaid and old free agents who are past their prime to fill the gaps. STRIKE 2.

Implement a defensive minded scheme with a squad cobbled together with meh free agents and go 4-12. STRIKE 3

Time to blow it up.

I clearly remember throughout this time thinking, "If they just got this FA, or if they just draft that one DT, WR, OT" and then not understanding why it didn't work. Duh! With hindsight (and a lot of NFL reference sites) it seems so obvious why the crash of 2007 was inevitable. I was shocked at the time. Now I'm shocked that I was shocked. The writing was on the wall the whole time and I just didn't see it.

Welcome to the purge of 2008. But more importantly, the draft of 2008.

11 of the 29 starters identified in the 2001-2010 draft numbers have been drafted since 2008. That's roughly 40% of the starters in 3 of 10 drafts. Keep in mind that the number should be higher since Moeaki doesn't count. He did not qualify as a starter (or a keeper) with only 15 games played/started.

2 of the 7 Pro Bowlers (28%) were drafted between 2008-2010.

This team went from old and overpaid to young and hungry in 2 years. And lord was it painful. 6-26 regular season record from 2008-2009.

Then a funny thing happened...the whole point of this exercise was to show that there is a correlation between drafts and regular season records two years later. The 2008 draft class was the best in the division by far. 2010 regular season record, 10-6.

There were warts to be sure, but it was warts on a hot chick. Enough beer and they just disappeared.

2011 was, well 2011. There is no need to rehash that here. We've been talking about what went wrong since December. I will leave say the KC draft in '09 was "meh" (whose wasn't?) and the record two years later was "meh" as well.

Man was this post cathartic. Thanks for letting me vent (if you made it this far)

I'll leave you with this for now. You may have a bad taste in your mouth, but I promise tomorrow's conclusion piece should prove to be a at least a little more Red and Gold kool-aidish. Hang in there.

Arrowhead Pride looking at 10 years of AFC West Drafting

mushin — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 01:42:57 -0000

Arrowhead Pride looking at 10 years of AFC West Drafting

Here's the article that talks about the Broncos drafts from 2001-2011. Come join the party.

Arrowhead Pride looking at 10 years of AFC West Drafting

mushin — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 01:39:47 -0000

Arrowhead Pride looking at 10 years of AFC West Drafting

Here's the article that looks at the Charger's drafts from 2001-2011. Come on over and join the party.

PSST...The draft is really important (The Broncos Edition)

mushin — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 20:06:10 -0000

From the FanPosts. -Chris

In case you missed the first two posts in this series of posts about the importance of drafting and the AFC West you can find the the proceeding stories with the links below.

The stories about the San Diego Chargers and the Oakland Raiders were a contrast in draft success. The Chargers have had a lot of it, the Raiders have had virtually none. The regular season records of both these teams reflect these facts.

~~The Denver Broncos fall somewhere in the middle.~~ This had to be rewritten after I actually reviewed the 10 year draft history.

The Denver Broncos (with the exception of two drafts in 2002 and 2006) gave the Oakland Raiders a run for their money when it comes to ineptitude and the draft.

Denver Broncos

From the FanPosts. -Chris

In case you missed the first two posts in this series of posts about the importance of drafting and the AFC West you can find the the proceeding stories with the links below.

~~The Denver Broncos fall somewhere in the middle.~~ This had to be rewritten after I actually reviewed the 10 year draft history.

The Denver Broncos (with the exception of two drafts in 2002 and 2006) gave the Oakland Raiders a run for their money when it comes to ineptitude and the draft.

Denver Broncos

Mike Shanahan was the Denver Broncos from 1995- 2008. During that time he worked with two GMs. The General Manager we're concerned with is Ted Sunquist who was acting General Manager of Denver from 2001-2007. He was let go by Shanahan after the 2007 season.Shanahan followed Sunquist out of the door in 2008.

Like the Raiders, the Broncos had a very stable front office for the time period we are looking at. Shanahan was a guiding force for 8 of the 10 drafts we are reviewing.

Denver could also be considered somewhat of an outlier for the premise that the draft is the best indicator of future success.The Broncos simply did not draft well during this time. Even so, Denver had a much better record than Kansas City. By the number of Pro Bowlers and All Pros (which we'll see tomorrow) KC out-drafted Denver by a comfortable margin.

Denver made a living from 2001-2010 with free agents, scheme and a solid coaching staff that got the most out of their players. And Denver had a winning record from 2003 even with sub-par drafting.

You have to give them their due.

The Bronco draft history is horrible in comparison to San Diego and bad when compared to KC. Denver still made the playoffs four times out of 9 times from 2003-2011. Twice as the division champs. Twice as the AFC Wildcard.

It also goes to show that there are so many variables in football that there is no specific set of statistics or facts that can be used to predict outcomes. Unlike in the NBA (where the draft is virtually EVERYTHING), the NFL draft is just one piece of the puzzle. It may be the most important piece. But teams like the Broncos found a way around it, sort of.

At the end of the Shanahan era in 2009, Josh McDaniels took over as head coach and Brian Xanders took over as GM. They only had two drafts together at the helm of the Broncos.

McDaniels and Xanders will always be remembered for the 1st round selection of Tim Tebow in 2010 but they did have 18 other picks as well.

To be honest, it's hard to judge how well or poorly McDaniels/Xanders did in the draft. The team has undergone two radical scheme changes in the past 4 years which hurts draft picks. The first McDaniels/Xanders draft ,2009, was part of arguably the worst NFL draft class of all time. The Broncos managed to get 2 starters out of the 2009 class which is as good as any other team in the division did.

In 2010 you had a trade up to get Tebow, who did manage to win a playoff game just one year later as the worst throwing QB to ever win a playoff game.

They selected Demaryius Thomas in 2010 who looks to have a ton of potential. He was touted as being raw when he came out so this is the year we should really see what he is all about.Denver also selected two starters on the offensive line in 2010.

The Broncos most talented pick of 2010, Parrish Cox, came with lots of red flags that turned into rape allegations. He is no longer with the team.

Still, the McDaniels drafts look to have been solid if not spectacular. Time will tell.

For the rest of the decade the Broncos were a strange team. By the numbers they didn't draft nearly as well as KC, though they drafted better than Oakland. On the other hand, they were the only team in the division to have two draft classes better than San Diego's corresponding classes in 2002 and 2006 prior to 2008.

Don't take my word for it. Here's the facts:

Once again, to clarify things a bit, I've correlated the team's record from two years after the corresponding draft class. I've also limited the players on the list to those who played in at least 16 games for the team that drafted them. Starter also means 16 starts over their career with the team.

Draft History Legend:

* = Starter (Must have started 16 games with team to qualify)
+ = Pro Bowler
# = All Pro
S = still with the team

Denver Broncos Draft History (2001-2010) / Regular Season Records (2003-2011)

2001 Draft Class / 2003 Record 10-6

2003 2nd in AFC West, AFC Wildcard Team, Wildcard Round Loss

Willie Middlebrooks, DB
Reggie Hayward, DE *
Ben Hamilton,G / C *

2002 Draft Class / 2004 Record 10-6

2004 2nd in AFC West, AFC Wildcard Team, Wildcard Round Loss

Ashley Lelie, WR *
Clinton Portis, RB * +
Sam Brandon, DB
Chris Young, DB
Monsanto Pope, DT *

2003 Draft Class / 2005 Record 13-3

2005 AFC West Champs, Conference Championship Loss

George Foster, OT *
Terry Pierce, LB
Quentin Griffin, RB

2004 Draft Class / 2006 Record 9-7

2006 3rd in AFC West

DJ Williams, LB * S
Tatum Bell, RB *
Darius Watts, WR

2005 Draft Class / 2007 Record 7-9

2007 2nd in AFC West

2006 Draft Class / 2008 Record 8-8

2008 2nd in AFC West

Jay Cutler, QB * +
Tony Scheffler, TE *
Brandon Marshall, WR * +
Elvis Dumervil, DE * + # S
Chris Kuper, G * S

2007 Draft Class / 2009 Record 8-8

2009 2nd in AFC West

Jarvis Moss, DE
Tim Crowder, DE
Ryan Harris, OT * S
Marcus Thomas, DT *

2008 Draft Class / 2010 Record 4-12

2010 4th in AFC West

Ryan Clady, OT * + # S
Eddie Royal, WR *
Kory Lichtensteiger, C
Spencer Larson, FB/LB
Josh Barrett, DB
Peyton Hillis, RB

2009 Draft Class / 2011 Record 8-8

2011 AFC West Champs, Divisional Round Loss

Knowshon Moreno, RB * S
Robert Ayers, DE / OLB * S
Darcel McBath, DB
Richard Quinn, TE
David Bruton, DB S

2010 Draft Class / 2012 Record ????

Demaryius Thomas, WR S
Tim Tebow, QB
Zane Beadles, OG * S
JD Walton, C * S
Eric Decker, WR S

Denver has been the second most consistent team in terms of wins in the division over this span of time the despite these pedestrian draft totals. They have managed a respectable 77-67 (534 %) from 2003-2011.

The draft numbers:

22 Starters
5 Pro Bowlers
2 All Pros
2 AFC West Championships
2 AFC Wildcard Berths
11 12 of the 79 draft picks during this time are still with the team

Not quite Raider bad, but nowhere near Chargers good either.

I came into this post thinking that Shanahan was the master of the UDFA's, which is not really accurate. The Broncos had a number of UDFA's start for them from 2001-2011. Rod Smith was a Pro Bowl receiver that Shanahan brought in as a UDFA in 1995.

Once you get past Smith, the biggest success for Shanahan in the UDFA market was Matt Lepsis a solid swing RT that could play the left side and ended up playing for Denver for 9 years from '98-'07.

The other Denver Pro Bowl UDFA, TE Dwayne Carswell, actually predates the Shanahan regime.

Other notable UDFA's that started for Denver and were brought in by Shanny include: Steve Herndon (OG / 1 year starter), Donnie Spragan (LB, 2 year starter), Lenny Walls (CB, 1 year starter), Kelly Herndon (CB, 2 year starter), and Erik Pears (OT, 2 year starter)

That's not a bad list, but I wouldn't call it world beating either. As Brskr pointed out in the San Diego version of these posts, AJ Smith brought in Gates, Cooper, Dielman and Osgood as UDFA's.

My thought that Denver was the best in the division at finding UDFA was flat out wrong.

So where did Shanny and Sundquist find their players? Where every crappy drafting team goes, free agency and/or trades.

You have to give it to Shanahan. Here's the Free Agent acquisitions that Shanahan was involved in that made the Pro Bowl during the years we are looking at from 2003-2008.

Champ Bailey, CB, drafted by Washington, 7 Pro Bowls with Denver, 3 All Pro Years
Jake Plummer, QB, drafted by Arizona, 1 Pro Bowl with Denver
John Lynch, S, drafted by Tampa Bay, 4 Pro Bowls with Denver
Casey Weigman, C, UDFA from KC, 1 Pro Bowl with Denver

From 2001-2008 Shanahan drafted 5 Pro Bowlers. While from 2003-2008 Shanahan and Sundquist found 4 Pro Bowl free agents or traded for them.

For perspective from 2003- 2008:

San Diego had 2 Pro Bowl imports: Donnie Edwards, Lorenzo Neal ( All Pro two years).

Kansas City had 3 Pro Bowl imports: Willie Roaf (All Pro one year), Priest Holmes (All Pro 3 years), Trent Green

Oakland had 1 Pro Bowl import: Derrick Burgess.

Full disclosure on the free agency front, Shanahan used about the same amount of imported players as KC and Oakland according to Pro Football Reference.com

Divisional Imported Starter from 2003-2008

Denver started 54 imported players (16 offense, 38 defense)
KC started 53 imported players (31 offense, 22 defense).
Oakland used 58 imported players (34 offense, 24 defense)
San Diego brought up the rear with 38 imported (19 offense, 19 defense).

Denver relied on imports slightly more than KC and slightly less than Oakland. The Shanahan/Sundquist team were simply better at identifying and signing quality players from outside their organization than either Al Davis or Carl Peterson.

So to recap. The Bronocs were not a very good drafting team. They were, however, significantly better at finding quality free agents. They had the most stable coaching staff in the division during this time period. Denver also enjoyed playing in a weak division with Kansas City and Oakland to beat up on for most of the decade. What did it mean in terms of wins and losses?

The years we are looking at 2003-2011

77-67 (534%)
2nd in the division 5 out of 9 times.
2 Division championships
Finished 3rd in the division once, finished 4th in the division once.
4 trips to the playoffs, 2 playoff wins, 0 Super Bowls

Good enough to compete. Not good enough to wrest control away from the Chargers. Keep that in mind next year when free agency rolls around. The most successful free agent acquisition team in the division simply could not compete with the team with the best drafts

We'll take a look at what the future holds for Denver on Friday.

Tomorrow's post, the Kansas City Chiefs. I suggest you bring tissues and a airsick bag. It's going to be ugly.

PSST...The draft is really important (The Raiders Edition)

mushin — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 00:56:49 -0000

From the FanPosts -Joel

In case you missed the first in this series of posts about the importance of drafting and the AFC West you can find the post covering the San Diego Chargers here.

Last time we looked at how the draft helped the San Diego Chargers take hold of the division and run away with it via outstanding drafts during the early part of the decade. In contrast, the Oakland Raiders have shown the NFL what horrible drafting can do to your franchise.

For any Oakland fans that happen to wander over to AP, I’m not bashing your team. Just stating the facts. The facts bash them quite well enough.

~~Just win~~, err I mean, just blow the draft baby.

Oakland Raiders

From the FanPosts -Joel

In case you missed the first in this series of posts about the importance of drafting and the AFC West you can find the post covering the San Diego Chargers here.

For any Oakland fans that happen to wander over to AP, I’m not bashing your team. Just stating the facts. The facts bash them quite well enough.

~~Just win~~, err I mean, just blow the draft baby.

Oakland Raiders

Of all the teams in the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders have had the most stability at the GM position from 2001-2010. But stability is only a good thing when the guy that keeps the job year after year knows what he’s doing.

Al Davis ruled his team with an iron fist. His fascination with height, weight and speed was well documented. The only thing Al loved more than a fast, strong guy, was a fast, strong guy that was mean, pissed and cut by another team. Hey, it worked in the 70’s and 80's didn't it. Why change in the face of facts?

There were a lot of things wrong with the Raiders organization in the last decade. The draft just exacerbated the problem.

In 10 years Oakland managed to have 7 coaches. They were, in order: Jon Gruden, Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell, Lane Kiffin, Tom Cable and Hue Jackson. Just to keep things consistent Oakland has decided to make it 8 over 11 years with the addition of Dennis Allen. Commitment to change is commendable when you are a politician running for office. Hasn't really worked out well for the Raiders though.

From 2000-2002 Oakland caught lightning in a bottle with a number of high profile free agents that helped them reach the Super Bowl. But, as we’ll see with the Chiefs later on in this series, Free Agents can give you a few good years but they cannot sustain consistent winning over a long period of time.

So what did Oakland do in the draft from 2001-2011, and did the record match their skill in the draft.

Draft History Legend:

* = Starter (Must have started 16 games with team to qualify)
+ = Pro Bowler
# = All Pro
S = players still with team

Oakland Raider Draft History (2001-2010) / Regular Season Records (2003-2011)

2001 Draft Class / 2003 Record 4-12

2003 4th in AFC West

Derrick Gibson, DB *
DeLawrence Grant, DE/LB *
Chris Cooper, DT/DE

2002 Draft Class / 2004 Record 5-11

2004 4th in AFC West

Phillip Buchanon, DB *
Napoleon Harris, LB *
Langston Walker, OT *
Doug Jolley, TE *
Ronald Curry, WR *

2003 Draft Class / 2005 Record 4-12

2005 4th in AFC West

Nnamdi Asomugha, DB * + #
Tyler Brayton, DE *
Teyo Johnson, TE
Justin Fargas, RB/FB *
Doug Gabriel, WR

2004 Draft Class / 2006 Record 2-14

2006 4th in AFC West

Robert Gallery, OT/OG *
Jake Grove, OG/C *
Eric Schweigert, DB *
Courtney Anderson, TE *

2005 Draft Class / 2007 Record 4-12

2007 4th in AFC West

Fabian Washington, DB *
Stanford Routt, DB *
Kirk Morrison, LB *
Anttaj Hawthorne, DT *

2006 Draft Class / 2008 Record 5-11

2008 3rd in AFC West

Michael Huff, DB * S
Thomas Howard, LB *
Paul McQuistan, OT
Kevin Boothe, OG
Chris Morris, C

2007 Draft Class / 2009 Record 5-11

2009 3rd in AFC West

JaMarcus Russell, QB *
Zach Miller, TE * +
Mario Henderson, DT/OT *
Johnnie Lee Higgins, WR *
Michael Bush, RB *
Jay Richardson, DE *
Oren O’Neal, FB
Jonathon Holland, WR

2008 Draft Class / 2010 Record 8-8

2010 3rd in AFC West

Darren McFadden, RB * S
Tyvon Branch, DB * S
Trevor Scott, DE *
Chaz Schillens, WR *

2009 Draft Class / 2011 Record 8-8

2011 3rd in AFC West

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR * S
Michael Mitchell, DB * S
Matt Shaughnessy, DE S
Louis Murphy, WR * S
Brandon Myers, TE S

2010 Draft Class / 2012 Record ????

Rolando McClain, LB * S
Lamar Houston, DT * S
Jared Veldheer, OT * S
Jacoby Ford, WR S

Wow, I mean…just wow…

From 2001-2010 Oakland started 36 of their 80 draft picks for at least 16 games during their time with the team. (45%). This was the most drafted starters of any AFC West Team. San Diego was second with 30 starters from 75 draft picks (40%).

Out of 80 draft selections only 2 of them made the Pro Bowl. Nnamdi Asomugha and Zach Miller. Asomugha also was named to the All Pro team in 2008 and 2010.

As with San Diego, the draft absolutely mirrors the record of the team. From 2003-2011 the Raiders have posted a measly 312% winning percentage. That's 45-99. Ugly.

What is even more damning is that of the 80 players drafted and 36 starters, only one player drafted prior to 2008 is still with the team. Michael Huff. San Diego has 9 players still with the team from that period.

36 of the draft picks may have started 16 games or more for the Raiders, but 35 of them were either let go by the numerous regime changes or bolted the first chance they could.

With other teams I would say that the constant shifting of coaches and scheme were to blame. But remember, Oakland only had one dramatic scheme change when Gruden left. (Which may be one of the main reasons why Al ran him out of town. Al, "What the hell is this West Coast thing. It's a fad! Throw deep damnit!!!"). Davis drafted the players, determined the scheme and even called plays from time to time.

In fact, in 2008 Al Davis stripped the offensive coordinater Joe Knapp of his play calling duties and assigned play calling to then interim coach Tom Cable.

Wish Clark would have done something similar last year...but I digress.

Let's continue to pile on shall we?

Player development couldn't have been helped by the constant change in staffs either. With no loyalty to the players, coaches had no problem marginalizing anyone who didn't "buy into" their system.

Players drafted in or before 2007 have had their rookie contracts expire and been able to have at least one year of eligibility with other teams. Oakland had 59 draft picks during this time. Only Micheal Huff is still with the team. But 20 of the other draftees went on to play 16 or more games with other teams, 10 of which started at least 16 games for another team.

That trend continued for the 2008 draft class. Of the five picks from 2008, one player never made the squad, WR Arman Shields. The other 4 picks were all qualified as Raider starters for this post. McFadden, Tyvon Branch, Trevor Scott and Chaz Schilens. In 2012 Scott will be a New England Patriot and Schilens will be a New York Jet.

So not only has Oakland drafted as bad or worse than any team in the NFL from 2001-2010, they also failed to hold onto the NFL caliber players they did draft. 33% of their draft picks from 2001-2007 went on to have NFL careers of 16 games or more with other teams and 16% were named starters for their new teams.

Any wonder Oakland is a hot mess?

What have the 2001-2010 drafts brought the Raiders?

80 Total Picks
36 Starters
2 Pro Bowlers
1 All Pro
0 AFC West Championships
Have not finished higher than 3rd in the Division since 2001
12 of the 80 draft picks during this time are still with the team

HOLY CRAP MAN!!! I knew it was bad, but not just how bad until I started these posts.

Rest in Peace Al. I can sincerely say that all of Chiefdom is going to miss you at the helm of the Raiders.

We’ll leave the summation of what this means for Oakland in the long run for the final piece in this series, but it can’t be good….

Coming up tomorrow, The Denver Broncos.

PSST...The draft is really important (The Chargers Edition)

mushin — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 20:08:49 -0000

[From the FanPosts. Nice read.]

Welcome to the long drought that is the true NFL off-season. With nothing better to do I thought it'd be a fun exercise to look at the AFC West draft history for the last 10 years. Partially cause it's not work...but mainly to crystalize the excitement I have for this KC team and the near future.

I haven't felt this good about the Chiefs in a long time. And instead of waxing kool-aid-etic about it, I wanted to bring hard facts to the party.

To better correlate the draft to wins/losses, I've matched each draft class with the record of the team two years after the fact. For example; 2001 Draft > 2003 Regular Season record. It's not perfect, but hey, write your own piece if you don't like it.

Over the next five days we'll review the last 10 years of drafting in the AFC West. Each day a different AFC West team will be tackled. On Friday I'll try to make sense of everything in a conclusion post. Hope you enjoy.

On with the show.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

[From the FanPosts. Nice read.]

I haven't felt this good about the Chiefs in a long time. And instead of waxing kool-aid-etic about it, I wanted to bring hard facts to the party.

On with the show.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

A funny thing happened on the way to the 2011 playoffs. The perennial favorite San Diego Chargers somehow fell apart. Many blamed Rivers and a non-disclosed injury. Undoubtedly Rivers’ uncharacteristic play had a lot to do with San Diego’s downfall, but I would argue that it was just the final straw. The decline of the Chargers was not Phillip Rivers fault. The decline of the Chargers can be directly attributed to AJ Smith and his recent draft history.

During this year's draft I looked over the last few years of San Diego's draft history. In the early part of the decade San Diego crushed the draft. As we'll see later, they had a 3 year stretch where the Chargers drafted so well that it is no surprise they captured the division 5 out of 10 years. But what about recently? Could there be a correlation to San Diego's recent loss of division supremacy and their recent drafts?

I decided to take a deeper look to see if I was imagining things or if this correlation could be clearly seen.

What happened to the cute and cuddley Chargers of the 90's that were good for at least a two win season? The draft happened.

Since 2001 the Chargers have had three head coaches: Mike Riley, Marty Shottenheimer and Norv Turner. They've also had two General Managers: John Butler and AJ Smith.

John Butler was named the General Manager of the Chargers in 2001. His tenure only lasted 2 years when he lost a battle with cancer. Prior to his death, Butler was responsible for the drafting of LT, Brees and Jammer. The Chargers began to build a young nucleus off these draft hits. Beginning in 2003 AJ Smith took over the personnel decisions and has been running the show ever since.

Successful doesn't even begin to describe Smith's early drafts. Between the Butler and Smith drafts of 2001-2006 the Sand Diego Chargers didn't draft one, but two potential Hall of Fame QB's as well as a Hall of Fame Running Back in LT. Part luck, part genius Butler and Smith gave San Diego the tools to put a stranglehold on the AFC West.

But it's not all roses in Chargerland anymore. The success that Smith enjoyed in the early years has not been replicated the last few years. The Chargers are still relying on their success from those early AJ Smith draft classes.

Don't take my word for it, the draft history and regular season records below tell the tale.

To clarify things a bit, I've correlated the team's record from two years after the corresponding draft class. I've also limited the players on the list to those who played in at least 16 games for the team that drafted them. Starter also means 16 starts over their career with the team.

Draft History Legend:

* = Starter (Must have started 16 games with team to qualify)
+ = Pro Bowler
# = All Pro
S = Players are still with the team / ~~players in BOLD are still with the team~~

San Diego Draft History (2001-2010) and Regular Season Records (2003-2011)

2001 Draft Class / 2003 Record 4-12

2003 3rd in AFC West

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB * + #
Drew Brees, QB * + (Never made All Pro while with SD)
Tay Cody. CB
Carlos Polk, LB
Zeke Moreno, LB *
Robert Carswell, DB

2002 Draft Class / 2004 Record 12-4

2004 AFC West Champions, Wildcard round loss

Quentin Jammer, DB * S
Toniu Fonoti, G *
Ben Leber, LB *
Justin Peelle, TE *

2003 Draft Class / 2005 Record 9-7

2005 3rd in AFC West

Sammy Davis, DB *
Drayton Florence, DB *
Terence Kiel, S *
Matt Wilhelm, LB *
Mike Scifres, P * S
Hanik Milligan, DB +
Andrew Pinnock, FB
Antonio Gates, TE (UDFA) * + #

2004 Draft Class / 2006 Record 14-2

2006 AFC West Champion, Wildcard round loss

Eli Manning/ Phillys Rivers * + S
Igor Olshansky, DE *
Nate Kaeding, K * + # S
Nick Hardwick, C * + S
Shaun Phillips, DE/LB * + S
Michael Turner, RB
Shane Olivea, RT *

2005 Draft Class / 2007 Record 11-5

2007 AFC West Champion, Conference Championship loss

2006 Draft Class / 2008 Record 8-8

2008 AFC West Champion, Divisional Round loss

Antonio Cromartie, DB * + #
Marcus McNeill, LT * +
Tim Dobbins, LB
Jeromey Clary, T * S

2007 Draft Class / 2009 Record 13-3

2009 AFC West Champion, Wildcard Round loss

Craig Davis, WR
Eric Weddle, DB * + # S
Legedu Naanee, WR
Brandon Siler, LB

2008 Draft Class / 2010 Record 9-7

2010 2nd in AFC West

Antoine Cason, DB * S
Jacob Hester, RB/FB * S

2009 Draft Class / 2011 Record 8-8

2011 2nd in AFC West

Larry English, LB S
Louis Vasquez, G * S
Vaughn Martin, DT S
Tyronne Green, G S

2010 Draft Class / 2012 Record ????

Ryan Matthews, RB * S
Cam Thomas, DT S

Looking at the San Diego draft history it seems a no brainer to connect their drafting history to the team's performance on the field.

Between 2001-2006, the San Diego Chargers drafted 26 starters. Among those starters they had 12 Pro Bowlers and 5 All Pros. From 2003-2008 the team had a combined record of 50-30 (625% winning pct) in the regular season.

Of the 23 starters drafted by San Diego between 2001-2006, nine players still with the team. Jammer, Scrifes, Gates, Rivers, Kaeding, Hadrwick, Phillips, Castillo and Clary.

To put that in perspective; Kansas City has 3 players still on the team (Hali, Derrick Johnson, Colquitt), Denver has two players still on the team (Dumerville and Kuper), while Oakland has one (Huff).

San Diego is still living fat from those early Smith/Butler drafts.

Over the next four drafts (2007-2010) the Chargers drafted just 5 starters. Among the starters they had 1 Pro Bowler and 1 All Pro Team members. Hmmm....

So for those at home keeping score:

2001-2010 draft classes brought San Diego:

75 total draft picks
30 Starters
13 Pro Bowlers
6 All Pros
5 AFC West Divisional Crowns
18 of the 75 picks are still with the team

What does it all mean though? We'll you'll just have to wait for that post once we slog through all the teams in the division won't you.

Up tomorrow, the Oakland Raiders

Warrick Dunn, class act

mushin — Fri, 25 May 2012 20:48:09 -0000

Warrick Dunn, class act

In an age where negativity is the norm for football players, it's good to remember that guys like Warrick Dunn are out there in the community.

Chiefs’ Brandon Flowers "not too worried about Peyton Manning"

mushin — Tue, 15 May 2012 20:45:16 -0000

Chiefs’ Brandon Flowers "not too worried about Peyton Manning"

If I can't have football, I'll take smack talk

SI's 2013 NFL Mock Draft

mushin — Tue, 01 May 2012 18:50:03 -0000

SI's 2013 NFL Mock Draft

Spoiler alert, he has KC taking a QB after making the playoffs

SI's College Football Insider team list of overrated/underated college prospects

mushin — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 20:20:13 -0000

SI's College Football Insider team list of overrated/underated college prospects

Guess which list Poe and Tannehill landed on...

BCS exploring 4 team neutal field playoff in 2014

mushin — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 16:04:01 -0000

BCS exploring 4 team neutal field playoff in 2014

Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com tweets KC-Kuechly

mushin — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 13:56:32 -0000

Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com tweets KC-Kuechly

Don't understand all of the KC-Kuechly talk. LBs Hali, Johnson = '11 Pro Bowlers. OLB Houston = '11 2nd rd pick. Belcher = 2nd rd tender.

And, oh by the way, Kuechly typically avoids blockers rather than taking them on, making him better fit in 4-3. Rushing QB not his game.

KC Personnel works Brockers at LSU pro day

mushin — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 19:49:48 -0000

KC Personnel works Brockers at LSU pro day

1:17 mark

Tony Pauline, "DeCastro does not have a future at center in the NFL he can line up at either guard or right tackle."

mushin — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:31:10 -0000

Tony Pauline, "DeCastro does not have a future at center in the NFL he can line up at either guard or right tackle."

What is DeCastro's value if he can play G or RT?

Bears sign Michael Bush

mushin — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 16:10:37 -0000

Bears sign Michael Bush

deal is a four-year, $14 million contract with $7 million guaranteed

Gerald McCoy...whoops...

mushin — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 14:39:36 -0000

Gerald McCoy...whoops...

@Geraldini93
Sorry #bucnation I tried but it looks like @CurtisLofton50 is an Eagle. Business is business he did what was best for him. Understandable.

@Geraldini93
Nope i was wrong he is still available