SB Nation User Blog: mushin

Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: Week Fourteen vs Buffalo Bills

mushin — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:37:33 -0000

Predictions from Week Twelve can be found here. The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.

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What a debacle. The fantasy Chiefs have been playing with fire for the last few weeks, and last week they got burned. Chris Chambers was non-existent in the game. WR's dropped balls all over the place. Charles got banged up and dropped the ball. What the frito my friends. What the frito.

Buffalo's record of 4-8 would seem to indicate that the Chiefs have a favorable fantasy matchup this week. But, a review of Buffalo's stats show that they have a surprisingly good pass defense. The Bills come in with the number 4 ranked pass defense in the NFL. In week 5 they held the hapless Browns to 23 yards total passing. I don't care if it was the Browns, that's ridiculous.

But as the Bills taketh, so they giveth away.

The Buffalo rush defense is ranked dead last in the league giving up an average of 172.1 yards per game. They have shown themselves to be susceptible to the big runs. The Jets last week had 4 rushers with at least one rush over 15 yards. Charles should be licking his chops.

From a fantasy perspective, KC needs someone to step it up in the run game and help Charles to carry the load. I don't see anyone on the bench that can provide that jab to Jamaal's uppercut. I hope you see something I don't. Here's to hoping.

3 Chiefs and a Sleeper after the break.

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Jamaal Charles

As stated earlier, Charles break away ability and the Bills vulnerability to it make Jamaal a must play this week. Buffalo has has twice allowed rushers to average 9 yards per carry this year (Thomas Jones; 9.5 ypc, Pierre Thomas; 9.0 ypc) and have only held 3 leading rushers to under 4 yards per carry (Derrick Ward; 2.6 ypc, Maruice Jones-Drew; 2.6 ypc, Jamal Lewis, 3.8 ypc ) Charles will not get a better matchup all year.

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 98 yards, 1 TD, 5 receptions, 45 yards receiving

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Chris Chambers

Denver showed the league that if you shut down Chris Chambers, you shut down the Chiefs passing game. Every other WR must have coated their hands with Slip-em last week. The Bills secondary is going to key on Chambers. Woe to the fantasy team that must rely on him. Dreyton Florence and Terrence McGee are going to force another KC WR step up. I would stay away from Chris this week if you can.

Chris Chambers Prediction: 3 receptions, 52 yards

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KC Defense/ST

The Buffalo offense is built around the run and play action passing. Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson pound it inside and the duo of Terrel Owens and Lee Evans burn teams deep. Those WR have to scare Chiefs fans. I still have nightmares about what TO did to KC a few years ago when Philly came to town. Fantasy fantatics shouldn't expect KC to be able to shut the Bills down. What fantasy players should look for is turnovers. Over the last 5 games Buffalo has averaged 3 fumbles and/or interceptions per game. Turnovers is the only stat that the KC D has managed to excel in this year. If you play the KC D, I fear for you sanity, but you should have some hope.

***

Fantasy Sleeper

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Lance Long

Long has disappeared from the Fantasy landscape. This week is intriguing though. Not because I expect Long to blow up in the recieving department, but because Buffalo has been letting WR's break off big runs. Teams have been running reverses and WR screeens agains the Bills with great results. Last week Brad Smith and David Clowney both broke off runs of more than ten yards. With the KC passing game most likely being shut down, Haley and company is going to have to find ways to rush the ball. Long's shiftiness and speed could be the answer.

Lance Long Prediction: 4 receptions, 35 yards, 2 rushes, 25 yards, 1 TD

***

Mushin's Week 12 Predictions:

-Chris Chambers

Chris Chambers prediction: 6 catches, 87 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 2 catches, 11 yards, 0 TD

-Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 94 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 48 yards receiving, 1 TD

actual numbers: : 18 yards rushing, 1 receptions, 3 yards receiving, 1 TD

-Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel Prediction: 243 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int

actual numbers: 84 yards, 0 TD, 2 Int

-Kolby Smith

Kolby Smith Prediction: 10 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers:Trip to IR

Weis says he'll be in the NFL next year

mushin — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 23:46:34 -0000

Weis says he'll be in the NFL next year

Let the speculation begin in earnest.

Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: Week Thirteen vs Denver Broncos

mushin — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:52:38 -0000

Predictions from Week Twelve can be found here. The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.

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If football is going to light speed, then fantasy football is going straight to plaid. The Chiefs were destroyed last week. It was one of the darkest days I've seen in 20 years of being a Chiefs fan. How many of you remember when the only thing better than having the Seahawks in the division was having the hapless Chargers too. Those days are gone my friends.

As dark as the day was for the Chiefs on the field, a couple of Chiefs actually shone as fantasy diamonds.

I have been down on Chris Chambers as a fantasy player since he was signed. In true Missouri style Chambers "Showed Me" and now he's become a must add on any fantasy roster.

Jamaal Charles may have fumbled (SON OF A $%#@#, GOAT LICKIN $%^*$#,!!!!) but he also racked up 147 total yards and a TD. That's a good day for any RB to have, fumble or no.

Now the Denver "Bananas" come to town. (I hope the people of Denver tarred and feathered whoever came up with that color scheme back in the day) They started off strong with 6 straight wins, then turned into the team we all thought they would be dropping 4 straight.

Don't let last week's win against the Giants fool you. The Bronco win was a lot like the KC win against the Raiders. The Giants were a mess. KC has a chance, right?

At this point I should probably mention that the Denver defense looks like it was built to wail on the Chiefs.

The Broncos have an undersized defense that played out of its mind early in the season. They have been pushed around recently. Physical teams have shown that the Broncos are susceptable to having the living bejesus pounded out of them. But there is no one on the KC roster that has shown they can provide the pounding.

KC has become a perimeter running team. This plays into Denver's strength. The small Bronco LB's excel at moving sideline to sideline, and their sole purpose in life will be tracking Charles comes Sunday. The Denver secondary does not appear to be any better of a match up for KC.

The Denver secondary is an all world team from 5 years ago. You may know the names Bailey, Dawkins and Law, but so does the local AARP rep. Its getting late in the season and KC has to hope that all that age is starting to catch up with them.

Denver has not allowed a WR to eclipse 100 yards all season. They only gave up 3 receiving TD's in the fist six games.

A glimmer of hope can be found in the fact that they have given up 6 receiving TD's in the last 5 games. Could be signs of the wheel rusting off. We can hope.

Denver at KC has traditionally been a great game for the Chiefs. Hell, last year's team got half of their wins for the season when Denver came to town.

Here's to watching that trend continue.

Three Chiefs and a sleeper after the break

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Chris Chambers

When I eat crow, I like to have it served over a nice marinara sauce please. Chris Chambers is quickly moving to secure the waiver wire wonder title. His numbers have improved every week. His role when Bowe comes back is still up in the air, but you have two more weeks to ride the Chambers comet. Even with the Denver secondary limiting WR's. Chambers is a decent #2 WR and a spectacular #3.

Chris Chambers prediction: 6 catches, 87 yards, 1 TD

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Jamaal Charles

The speed merchant struck again last week. Charles is another Chief that has become a must start unless you have a much better option. For better or worse, what little offense the Chiefs have runs through Chambers and Charles. His touches seems to hover at around 17 to 20 each week. He only needs to break one to make starting him worthwhile. Charles as a fantasy play is as close to a no-brainer as you're going get out of any Chief this season week in and week out.

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 94 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 48 yards receiving, 1 TD

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I've got to be honest here. There isn't really another Chief outside of the big two that I like this week. Cassel gets the nod simply because he touches the ball more often than anyone else. Matt has still shown the potential to put up solid fantasy numbers. His propensity for fourth quarter TD's has been documented. In five games at Arrowhead this year he has put up respectable numbers in every game except the San Diego debacle. You're reaching into the well if you go here, but if you have nowhere else to go, you have nowhere else to go.

Matt Cassel Prediction: 243 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int

***

KC Fantasy Sleeper

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Kolby Smith

This is an educated guess/hopeful grasping at straws. Smith has now been off the PUP list for almost a month. If Smith is going to show up this season, this week needs to be the week. KC needs a between the tackle RB to take advantage of the weakest point in the Denver D, the undersized line. This looks like a perfect spot for Smith to show that he is ready to be a part of the KC plans moving forward. Now if Haley will only cooperate..l.

Kolby Smith Prediction: 10 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD

****

Mushin's Week 12 Predictions:

-Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles prediction: 68 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 32 yards

actual numbers: 93 yards rushing, , 1 TD, 3 receptions, 54 yards receiving

-Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel Prediction: 278 yards, 2 TD

actual numbers: : 178 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int, 2 fumbles

-Chris Chambers

Chris Chambers Prediction: 5 catches, 80 yards, 0 TD

actual numbers: 7catches, 70 yards, 1 TD

-Leonard Pope

Leonard Pope Prediction: 4 catches, 15 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 1 receptions, -3 yards, 0 TD

"I looked up that stat I talked about after the game, fourth-and-two’s or less," Haley said. "We’ve ...

mushin — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 20:34:24 -0000

"I looked up that stat I talked about after the game, fourth-and-two’s or less," Haley said. "We’ve had 27 fourth-and-two’s or less, 20 fourth-and-ones. That’s 20 times we’re coming up a yard short, a simple yard, whether it’s somebody reaching the ball out or executing the depth of the route perfectly.

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2009/11/27/insider_blog_redemption_weekend/

Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: Week Twelve vs San Diego Chargers

mushin — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 02:00:44 -0000

Happy Thanksgiving Chiefs Fans.

Predictions from Week Eleven can be found here. The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.

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It's amazing what a win can do for a fan's outlook on the world. Last week it was doom and gloom. This week there is a sense of hope. "What if the Chiefs go 3-0?" Bring on the Kool Aid, I'm ready for a glass.

But that's on the football field. In the world of statistics the, Chiefs vs Pittsburgh game showed KC to be the fantasy disappointment fantasy players have come to expect. The Steelers limited the KC offense all day. The KC Defense and Special Teams stepped up, but over 500 yards total offense and 24 points from Pittsburgh offset any positive points that were gained from a return TD and 3 turnovers.

The Chiefs did do better on 1st down against the Steelers. Contrary to popular prognostication, this did not vastly improve KC's 3rd down conversion percentage. The Chiefs were 6-15 on 3rd down, or 40% for those of you without a calculator handy.

Fantasy value, or lack thereof, is directly proportional to an offense's ability to maintain possession of the ball. Long grinding drives are what you want to see for your fantasy players. Big plays will give you flashy numbers, but any owner of an Indianapolis WR over the last few years will tell you just how frustrating a player can be whose points are tied to that one play per game.

Big plays happen when their is a defensive break down. There's no way to predict, especially in the passing game, which offensive player will be the beneficiary. How many of you started Leonard Pope last week?

An offense needs to sustain drives to increase the chances of your fantasy player racking up the points. The increase in touches in turn increases the chance your player will be in a position to take advantage of a defensive breakdown. It's why running backs have such value. They simply touch the ball more.

KC's offense has shown that it has players who can turn in big weeks. But, the offense has not shown itself to be effiicent enough to create a solid fantasy atmosphere week in and week out for any Chief you feel can contribute to your team. Live by the fantasy big play, die by the fantasy big play.

Now KC travels to San Diego. The first matchup KC had with the Chargers was arguably the worst game the Chiefs played all season. Cassel threw 3 picks, the RB trio of Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Dantrell Savage were held to under 100 yards and the WR corp had a total of 100 yards receiving.

The Chief fan in me believes that this time it will be different. KC is going to rise up and be the team that no contender wants to play down the stretch. KC is going to give San Diego all they can handle and more.

The fantasy owner in me is a bit more cautious.

Three Chiefs and a Sleeper after the break

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Jamaal Charles

In two short weeks, Jamaal Charles went from fantasy gamble to a #3 running back for any fantasy team. Haley is giving him more touches, 17 last week. You should still be cautious. Charles is not a RB that will consistently carry your team, primarily because of the KC offenses inablitiy to sustain drives. Jamaal was held to 58 yards of rushing last week. The shuttle pass for a touchdown padded his stats. Granted, not every defense is going to be as stifling to the KC run game as Pittsburgh. San Diego has shown itself to be one of those defenses though. Since the week 6 meeting between KC and San Diego, the Bolts have not allowed a 100 yard rusher. They have actually only allowed one rusher over 70 yards in that span. (Knowshon Moreno, 80 yards). Buyer beware.

Jamaal Charles prediction: 68 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 32 yards

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Matt Cassel (redemption pick)

There were a lot of QB injuries last week in the NFL. Big Ben, Warner and Romo all sustained injuries. Romo looks like he'll play today, but Rothlisberger and Warner are still questionable. Which brings us to Matt Cassel. The fantasy strength of Cassel all year has been his lack of interceptions. That has been true in every game except week 6 against San Diego where he had 3. This time around Matt has a few things going for him. A running game that requires at least a momentary consideration from the San Diego defense. A split second more time from his improving offensive line. Chris Chamber's intimate knowledge of the San Diego secondary. Watch for Matt to have a much better day than the last outing. That's not to say he'll light it up, but he should be a solid play as a stop gap option if your star QB is riding the trainer's table this week.

Matt Cassel Prediction: 278 yards, 2 TD

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Chris Chambers

Love those revenge games. Chambers has had an instant impact on the KC offense. This week he gets to stick it to his old team. It makes him an interesting option. Chambers has proved to be exactly what KC was looking for when they signed Amani Toomer and Bobby Engram. Savy vet. Chain mover. Leader. Best friend of the young KC QB. Love him as a Chief. He still can't be relied upon to be much more than an #3 fantasy WR, in my opinion. He has never been known as a big play reciever and yet that is exactly what he looks to be in the KC offense. Something has got to give here. Either the Dolhins and the Bolts misused him for the whole of his career, or he has found the fountain of youth. More likely he is finding soft spots in defenses and is making the most of his opportunities. You have to believe he will come back to earth, don't you? Enough nay-saying. The Chambers play this week has the possiblity of making you look like a fantasy football genius. Revenge game. No other consitent receiving threats for KC. Faith of his QB.

Chris Chambers Prediction: 5 catches, 80 yards, 0 TD

***

KC Fantasy Sleeper

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Leonard Pope

This was a tough decision. Kicker or a WR. To break the dead lock I went with an unsung hero for KC. Pope has never been known as an offensive weapon in his career. His most productive season as a pass catcher came in 2004. He only had 23 recpetions on the year. BUT, 5 of those catches went for TD's. In 7 games with KC Pope has caught 8 passes. 5 of those eight have been in the last two weeks. With Bowe suspended, the Chief's tallest WR is Mark Bradle listed at 6-1". The rest of the WR corp is: Chambers-5'11", Long-5'11" (yeah right), Wade- 5,10". Compare that to Leonard Pope who is listed at 6'8" The increase in passes thrown his way matched with his size (and lack of size for the rest of KC) makes Pope a TD target waiting to happen. Leonard is never going to light up your fantasy scoreboard like Vernon Davis, but he might start snagging enough TD's to make him fantasy relevant.

Leonard Pope Prediction: 4 catches, 15 yards, 1 TD

***

Mushin's Week 11 Predictions:

-Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 54 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 20 yards receiving, 0 TD

actual numbers: 58 yards rushing, 2 receptions, 8 yards receiving, 1 TD

-Chris Chambers (Mr Overtime)

Chris Chambers Prediction: 5 catches 72 yards, 0 TD

actual numbers: : 4 catches 119 yards, 0 TD

-Lance Long

Lance Long prediction: 5 catches, 45 yards, 0 TD

actual numbers: 2 catches, 37 yards

-Bobby Wade (3 dropped passes, DOH!!!!)

Bobby Wade Prediction: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 3 receptions, 17 yards, 0 TD

NFL.COM poll on who will win Steelers vs Chiefs

mushin — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:54:43 -0000

NFL.COM poll on who will win Steelers vs Chiefs

Win the poll, with the game.

Sick em' boys

Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: Week Eleven vs Pittsburgh Steelers

mushin — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:16:38 -0000

Predictions from Week Ten can be found here. The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.

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In a word, the outlook is bleak. No D-Bowe. Improving but sub-standard O-line. #4 defense in the league. Not good. If the Chiefs explode on the fantasy scene it will be a shock.

The Steelers have yet to allow a 100 yard rusher all year. The highest single game rushing total was 76 yards by Cedric Benson in week 3. Pittsburgh has even held the mighty Adrian Peterson to 69 yards, albeit with one touchdown.

If dreams of no Troy Polamalu have you itching to try your fantasy luck, keep in mind that Polamalu has only played in 6 of the Pittsburgh's 10 games this season. He's been hobbled to boot. The Pittsburgh D is incredible with Polamalu. They are merely great without him.

Bleak.

There were a lot of of injuries last week in the NFL that may force you to consider a Chief. Especially at running back. Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Brian Westbrook and Michael Turner all went down last week. Placing a Chief in any injury roster holes on your starting lineup will probably bring you nothing but heartbreak, but stranger things have happened.

Three Chiefs and a sleeper after the break.

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Jamaal Charles

The performance turned in by Charles last week was a vindication of sorts for many Chiefs fans. Charles finally showed what kind of back we all envisioned he could be when drafted. Given the opportunity on the field.18 carries. 103 yards. It was the 44 yard dash sprung by his blockers in the second level that was the most encouraging. Charles is a home run threat. All he needs is a little space. Space will be at a premium this week though. There's a good chance that Charles gets shut down this week. Start him if you have to, but keep the expectations low and hope he breaks one.

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 54 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 20 yards receiving, 0 TD

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Chris Chambers

Last week I wasn't sold on Chris Chambers as a fantasy play. I'm still not totally sold, but Bowe's poor judgement has increased Chambers value immensly. There is no longer a true number 1 WR on the Chiefs squad. Chambers has at least had experience in the role as a Dolphin. Chambers still has a lot to learn about the playbook. He's going to have the opportunity to learn on the job. The Steelers seconday has looked suspect at time, but any weaknesses they have are masked by a ferocious pass rush. KC remains number two in the league in sacks allowed. Not a good combo. May not be the week to start Chambers. Might be the week to snatch him off the waiver wire though.

Chris Chambers Prediction: 5 catches 72 yards, 0 TD

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This is the come to earth edition. Long was only targeted 4 times last week. He had two catches and dropped one ball in the first quarter he probably should have caught. His true value probably lies somewhere between 2 catches for 18 yards and 8 catches for 74 yards. The hope is that he realizes fantasy value by becoming a consistent pass catcher with a steady diet of passes thrown his way every game. If Cassel continually looks elsewhere he falls to a number 4 WR with the potential to be a number 2 fantasy WR on weeks when he gets into the endzone. Bowe's absence may be a blessing in disguise for fantasy purposes when it comes to Long. This four week stretch should give fantasy owners a much better read on who Long is, and if he is worth a look in your draft next year.

Lance Long prediction: 5 catches, 45 yards, 0 TD

****

KC Fantasy Sleeper

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Bobby Wade

Wade has been a fantasy puzzle all year. He has shown flashes. His numbers have not been spectacular in large part due to the drops. He has been consistently thrown to though. His punt returning value is non-existent. Wade still seemed to have found his way permanently on the field as the de facto KC #2 WR. The next thing you know Chambers is on the team and Bobby is inactive two weeks in a row. Savage's injury and Bowe's suspension have cracked the door though and Wade is on the field again. Bobby's value this week, as in every week, will be tied to his ability to find the endzone.

Bobby Wade Prediction: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

***

Mushin's Week 10 Predictions:

-Lance Long (the "Gold Team" prediction)

Lance Long Prediction: 7 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 2 catches, 18 yards, 0 TD

-Jamaal Charles (the doh! prediction)

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 30 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TD

actual numbers: 103 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 14 yards, 1 TD

-Chris Chambers

Chris Chambers Prediction: 2 catches, 48 yards, 0 TD's

actual numbers: 3 catches, 60 yards

-KC Defense

KC Defense Prediction: 2 Sacks, 1 Int, 1 FF, 0 TD

actual numbers: 2 sacks, 2 Int, 0 FF, 0 TD

Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: Week Ten vs Oakland Raiders

mushin — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:30:11 -0000

Predictions from Week Ten can be found here. The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.

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Reminder to all Fantasy Junkies. Thursday games have started. Be sure to get your lineups set early.

And then there was one. Brian Waters is the last surviving KC Chief from the 2003 fantasy juggernaut that lived in Arrowhead stadium. Holmes, Hall, Green, Johnson, Gonzalez, Kennison and Morton have all faded into KC fantasy lore. This new KC team is filled with fantasy back-ups and headaches.

Not that LJ was worth a damn in fantasy football this year, but the days of the Red and Gold carrying you to a fantasy championship seem gone for good. Or are they..

In week 2 KC dominated the Raiders. It was the game that got away from them. Since that game KC has been irrelevant to fantasy football. Oakland has managed to be less than that.

Pound for pound, Oakland is probably a more talented football team. The showed it against the Eagles. They have a veteran defensive line that can get pressure. Their secondary has arguably the best CB in the game. McFadden, Bush or Fargas could all start for half the teams in the league. The talent in Oakland, as always, is overshadowed by inconsistent play and a total lack of cohesiveness.

KC has been more consistent this year than the silver and black. They have kept playing hard. This is a good sign for fantasy owners. 75% of KC's fantasy output came in the 4th quarter last week.

The Chiefs still come up short. Big plays to the second and third passing options are finding seams in the KC D. A bad KC offense is being put behind the 8 ball. And unheralded WR's are having breakout games. Fortunately for KC, Jamarcus Russell's play progression seems to be: #1 option, Girl with tight shirt in 3rd row, #1 option, hot dog vendor.

If KC can contain the running game of Oakland and Zach Taylor this week, the Chiefs could provide some vital fantasy depth to your team.

Three Chiefs and a sleeper after the break.

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Lance Long

Meet your new Points Per Reception best friend. Maybe I'm a bit early on this bandwagon. I don't think so. Long is fast and smart. He has solid hands. While Bowe and Chambers are streaking down the field, Cassel is usually running for his life. Lance "Life-Preserver" Long is in position to bail out Cassel. Last week he put up 15 points in a Points Per Reception format. To put that in perspective, he outscored: Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe and DeSean Jackson in the same format. That's not to say he's going to turn in a 30 point game. It does suggest that he will look like a poor man's Welker on your team putting up between 10 and 20 points consistently.Keep in mind also that when Oak and KC last met Cassel constantly turned to his secondary WR's. Wade and Savage combined for 12 catches, the longest of which was 12 yards. The underneath passing game will be there for a second week in a row. Lance Long is on the Waiver Wire in 99.9% of the leagues. If you're hoping that Mark Clayton or Donnie Avery will have their monthly good game this week as opposed to their standard one catch performance it may be time to look closer to home.

Can you tell I REALLY like this guy for fantasy?

Lance Long Prediciton: 7 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD

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Jamaal Charles

Charles seemed to be the fantasy waiver wire darling last week. There have been multiple articles written about his potential value as the KC starting RB, including a piece here on AP. I'm not sure if I'm ready to buy the hype. Haley is not putting the ball into his hands enough for him to explode onto the scene. Kolby Smith is also in a position to keep Charles regulated to a secondary role. Working in Charles favor, Oakland has given up an average of 97 total yards per game to small backs that can catch the ball (Darren Sproles x2, Dantrell Savage, Steve Slaton, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brian Westbrook). Last time KC met Oakland Charles was actually inactive. Jamaal will likely put up solid numbers this week, but he probably should ride the pine on your squad unless you're in a pinch.

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 30 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TD

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Chris Chambers

This is more of a cautionary tale than an endorsement. It seems like KC has brought in a new WR each week and each week they have a big game only to fade into the wood work as the season progresses. Chambers is a prime candidate to continue this trend. Cassel only targeted him 4 times last week. He targeted Bowe ten times and Long eleven. Chambers has 192 yards on the season. 70 of those came last week. San Diego runs a pass happy offense with an elite QB that spreads the ball around. Chambers only had 9 catches in seven games with the Chargers this year. In two games against Oakland he had one reception for twenty yards. The veteran WR has good hands and can run routes, but don't jump on the bandwagon just yet.

Chris Chambers Prediction: 2 catches, 48 yards, 0 TD's

****

KC Sleeper

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KC Defense/Special Teams

It's hard to play a defense that is ranked 30th in total yards given up. There's only two times left this season when playing the KC defense might make sense. Cleveland in week 15 and Oakland this week. The Raiders offense gives one dimensional a bad reputation. They are ranked 31st in the league in passing offense and are averaging 9.8 yards a pass. A little perspective here. The Chiefs horrible, anemic offense is averaging 15.8 yards per pass. The KC D will need to account for Zach Miller all game. He has accounted for over 40% of the total Raiders passing offense. Russel is averaging a interception a game. Their offensive line also is having protection issue. They are #3 in sacks allowed (slightly ahead of the Chiefs and GB). If you like playing Russian Roulette with 3 bullets in a 6 chambered gun, the Chiefs D has a shot at racking some points this week.

KC Defense Prediction: 2 Sacks, 1 Int, 1 FF, 0 TD

****

Mushin's Week 9 Predictions:

-Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 89 yards rushing, 6 receptions 45 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 36 yards rushing, 3 receptions 19 yards, 0 TD

-Bobby Wade

Bobby Wade Prediction: 5 receptions, 64 yards, 1 TD

INACTIVE

-Ryan Succop

Ryan Succop Prediction: 2 FG's, 2 EP's

actual numbers: 2 FG's, 1 EP

-Lance Long (This may be the first underestimation of a fantasy Chief all year)

Lance Long Prediction: Activated, 4 catches, 25 yards, 0 TD's

actual numbers: 8 catches 74 yards, 0 TD

Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: Week Nine vs Jacksonville Jaguars

mushin — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 03:01:16 -0000

From the FanPosts. -Chris

Predictions from Week Seven can be found here. The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.

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Week seven? What happened in week seven? I remember sitting down to watch the game next thing I know it's Monday morning. I seem to remember something about tequila and a Kansas City Chiefs' induced heartbreak. I'll just leave it at that.

The last two weeks have seen a complete shake up of Chief fantasy player values. Johnson twittered his way out of at least one start. This may turn out being a blessing in disguise for LJ owners. Just do what I did. Drop him and feel better about your day.

Charles, Savage and Smith create a RB quandary that has me itching to jump, but unsure which way to go. (Thought I'm pretty sure Savage is a non-fantasy factor...pretty sure....)

And yet another veteran WR shows up in town with the potential to steal some of the few receptions going around. Or just warm a bench.

Starting KC players not named Succop is looking more and more like playing Russian Roulette with 5 bullets loaded. And even Succop is boom or bust. Consistency does not seem to be a KC virtue right now.

So here we go into week 9. A struggling KC offense against a Jacksonville team that just got TORCHED by Chris Johnson for 228 yards and 2 TD's. Maybe with a bye week to prepare Jacksonville will be just what KC needs to get their offense on track. Don't bet the farm on it though.

Three Chiefs and a sleeper after the break...

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Jamaal Charles

Alright Chiefs fans. Here we go. Jamaal Charles gets his chance against a team that just gave up over 300 yards on the ground. But don't go dropping Adrian Peterson to pick up Charles just yet. Tennessee ran the ball 49 times in the game. The Titans wore the Jags down and Chris Johnson broke big runs. KC will have a difficult time replicating the feat. Charles will have his shot though. He has an opportunity to grab the job from the disgraced LJ and never look back. We can all hope.

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 89 yards rushing, 6 receptions 45 yards, 1 TD

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Bobby Wade

Despite being tied for 2nd on the NFL Drops List with 6 dropped balls, Wade simply had to be included this week. I have to use him as a bye week replacement in my money league. I do have hope though. Every time I've watched the Jags play, I've seen second option WRs and check down receivers running wild against the Jacksonville defense. Here's your list of leading WRs from the opposing team in all games that Jax has played.

Week 1: Reggie Wayne (Ind), Week 2: Steve Breaston (Ari), Week 3: Kevin Walter (Hou), Week 4: Kenny Britt (Ten), Week 5: Nate Burleson (Sea), Week 6: Steven Jackson (StL), Week 8: Justin Gage (Ten)

Wishful thinking is a dangerous trait to have when money is on the line. On the plus side, Wade still has a nose for the endzone and I'm never above a Hail Mary. Especially with my kid's college fund backing the bet.

Bobby Wade Prediction: 5 receptions, 64 yards, 1 TD

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Ryan Succop

We all know that Ryan has the leg to get the job done. There is an encouraging stat to back a Succop play this week. Jacksonville has been giving up field goals in bunches. In the last four games the Jaguars have allowed a total of 9 field goals. The once vaunted Jacksonville defense is bending an awful lot when it's not breaking altogether. The lowest point total allowed by Jax was 14 points in week one against the Colts. Since then teams are averaging a shade over 27 points a game. Succop is a solid play this week.

Ryan Succop Prediction: 2 FG's, 2 EP's

KC Fantasy Sleeper

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Lance Long

The logical voice inside my head calmly whispered "Don't forget Bobby Sippio" The starved Chiefs fan voice drowned out the other voice with "WES WELKER!!! WES WELKER!!!!". He made two great grabs in traffic before getting whacked. It was exciting. It was a big play waiting to happen. It was probably nothing. But if you want a sleeper and you're in a league that has 27 teams with 4 WR's on each team, make a run for this guy. Or better yet stick him on your scout team and hope he can stay healthy and is going to be activated over Chris Chambers.

Lance Long Prediction: Activated, 4 catches, 25 yards, 0 TD's

Mushin's Week 7 Predictions:

(Do you REALLY want to relive any of this? Okay, but I'm not responsible for uncontrollable sobbing)

-Ryan Succop

Ryan Succop Prediction: 2 FG's, 2 EP's

actual numbers: 0 FG's, 1 EP

-Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel prediction: 265 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int

actual numbers: 97 yards, 1 TD, 3 Int

-Dwayne Bowe

Dwayne Bowe prediction: 7 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 2 catches, 11 yards, 1 TD

-Sean Ryan (Well at least he was consistent in all aspects of his game including blocking)

Sean Ryan prediction: 5 catches 62 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 0 catches 0 yards, 0 TD

Comparing LJ apologies

mushin — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:53:00 -0000

Comparing LJ apologies

Oct 09: "I also want to apologize to all the kids who view athletes as role models. I was not a good role model yesterday and hopefully I can become a better role model. We all make mistakes, and the challenge is to learn from them. I will do my best to learn from this one as I move toward becoming a better person, teammate, and member of the Kansas City Chiefs team and community."
He promised to work hard "to get my life back on track and know that I and I alone put myself in these critical situations and environments to where things don't come out favorably to me. All I can do is promise to you guys and to people who are watching that as a man, I'm still growing and as a man everyone makes mistakes.