An article just published on Rotoworld about Matt spending more time in the weight room:

Getting ready for the lateral attack!!


This goes along with the comments made by many posters on the board about Matt's lack of arm strength. Seems that people in the ATL organization have seen the same thing. This might also be driven by Koetters comments about wanting to play more lateral football. I applaud Matt for facing a weakness in his game and trying to make improvements for the betterment of the team.

When Petrino came to ATL many of us hoped it would usher in an era of exciting, winning football. To say that was not the way it turned out is an understatement. With the issues with Vick and poor overall team play Petrino high tailed it and left the team before the season finished. Maybe he wasn't cut out for pro football? Well, if that was the case he should have been man enough to tough out the season just like the players did. Many coaches have bad seasons that they ahve to work through.

Well, it seems like karma has caught up with Petrino:

Well lookey here,...

Not sure how this is going to play out for Petrino but what goes around, comes around. If there is any solace to be had in the Petrino fiasco in ATL it looks like it had little to do with the organization and a lot to do with the character of Petrino himself.

Gentleman, if ATL makes one high dollar signing this off season who do you guys think it should be? Right now there are two potential players that we as fans would like to see ATL sign that would be in the neighborhood of $10MM and both fill critical positions.

The first player is Marcus McNeill, all pro LT from SD. With Baker not turning out as everyone would have liked and people not being comfortable with Svitek as the starter there is a ground swell for TD to go after McNeill. He is an excellent LT but had a major surgery last year and was due $10.5MM this season. If healthy McNeill would be an upgrade at the LT position and would help ensure the safety of MR. On the other side of that equation are a few unknows. Baker was playing hurt last season and Svitek played very well at LT against some very good DE's. With our new OL coach, and assuming Baker is 100% healthy, is there any chance that Baker turns into the monster he was in college? Or could Svitek improve and become a top flight LT? Will McNeill sign for less than $10MM due to his injury or because he wants to play on a SB contending team?

Second is our own spring loaded Brent Grimes. This is what I mean by spring loaded. BG is one of the top FA DB's in the NFL and has played great for us over the past few seasons. It could be argued that Brent has been our most consistent player on D over that time. He was tagged and is due $10.6MM this season or possibly less if a contract can be agreed upon. Not sure what BG's bottom line salary targets are but let's assume it will be in the $7MM - $9MM range. There are some questions about investing in BG, such as will he be effective in Nolans press coverage? Will Owens, Franks and or Walls be able to effectively replace BG in the the D?

Assuming that both players will cost about the same which should ATL sign? I don't think ATL can afford both but TD has pulled off miracles in the past.

I don't think we need to sign either going into the season. I am going to be stupidly optimistic here. I think the new OL coach will sort or Svitek and Baker or ATL will pick up a less expensive LT. I also think that Owens, Franks, Walls or someone else will fill in for BG and play very well in his place.

Someone commented in an earlier thread that they thought Mike Nolan would have an effect on the draft. So let's take a guess as too what ATL's picks might look like. Let's make a few assumptions:

Nolan will transition to a 3-4 next season so Abe gets signed for a one or two year deal.

Hawley is lights out as McClures back up.

A LT or RG is signed as a Free agent

Round 2, 1st pick - Kendell Reyes, DT from CT, 6'4" and 296lbs. He would be the NT in the 3-4 and replace Jerry in the 4-3. I would prefer Brandon Thompson from Clemson but I don't think he'll be available.

Round 3, 2nd pick - Ladarius Green, TE from La-Lafayette. I still think he is a steal in the 3rd round.

Round 4, 3rd pick - Bruce Irvin, OLB from WVU, 6'2" and 245lbs with a 4.54 40. Pass rushing specialist and preparing for the 3-4. Raw but talented, probably more so in the 3-4.

Round 5, 4th pick - Robert Turbin, RB from Utah State. 5'09', 216lbs with a 4.57 40. He could be Snellings replacement his rookie season and Turners in his second.

Round 6, 5th pick - Christian Thompson, FS from SC State. 6', 213lbs and a 4.45 40. Tall and fast. Could possibly push DeCoud.

Round 7, 6th pick - William Vlachos, C from Ala. 6' and 306 pounds. Could be a steal.

UDFA's:

Chris Greenwood, CB from Albion. 6'1", 196lbs with a 4.39 40. Replaces Weems as the returner while working on pass D.

Garrick Williams, ILB from TX A&M. 6'2", 239lbs with a 4.74 40. He has been a tackling machine for A&M.

Curnelius Arnick, ILB from Tulsa. 6', 230lbs, 4.78 40. Had 339 tackles for his career.

Lance Mitchell, SS from Oregon State. 6'2", 207lbs, 4.58 40. Good tackler with pretty good pass D skills. Could also push DeCoud if he moved to FS.

I did include some offensive players in the draft but to fill some immediate needs or players that might be steals.

What do you guys think? All comments are appreciated.

I have enjoyed pierre02's drafts and I thought I'd take a shot at one. It won't be nearly as good as pierre02's though.

To start off I am going to assume that ATL will address any LT/RG issues through free agency.

1st pick - 2nd round: Ben Jones, C, UGA. McClure is getting to the end of his road and we all saw how poorly the OL played without him in the lineup. I don't feel that ATL has a sucessor to McClure on the roster. Jones is a good pass and run blocker that played very well for UGA and had 35 starts.

2nd pick - 3rd round: Ladarius Green, TE, La-Lafayette. This is TG's last season. Palmer appears to be a good backup but not 1st string caliber in the current NFL passing schemes. Green has good size at 6'6" and 237 pounds and runs a pre-Combine 4.64 forty. He has good, strong hands, runs routes well, is hard to bring down one-on-one and moves well in the open field. He could be a steal in the 3rd round.

3rd pick - 4th round, compensatory pick: Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State. The RB corp needs to start evolving this year. MT is in the last year of his contract, Snellings one year deal is up and Quizz is ready for the future. At 5'9" and 216 pounds Turbin runs a 4.57 40. He tore an ACL in 2010 but came back this season and rushed for 1416 yards and 19 TDs. The year before his injury has had 1296 yards on 209 carries. Both seasons he averaged slightly above six yards per carry. While in college he also caught 66 passes for 838 yards and 11 TD's. His draft analysis looks very good.

4th pick - 5th round: Emmanual Acho, OLB, Texas. Nicholas is not the long term answer at OLB and fs ATL goes to a 3-4 next year they need more athletes at the OLB position. Acho has good size, 6'1", 235 pounds and a 4.79 40. He plays well against the run and against the pass. He is a good tackler and can rush the QB.

5th pick - 6th round: Damien Jackson, FS, Mississippi. He is a bgs FS at 6'2" and 210 pounds. His size would be a compliment to Moore. He is a violent hitter but needs work in pass coverage.

6th pick - 7th round: D'Anton Lynn, CB, Penn State. A tall DB at 6'0" with decent speed but needs work in improving his pass coverage skills.

Alright guys, let me know what y'all think.

There was a very nice post a few weeks ago about the Chiefs former head coach Todd Haley being considered as a new OC for ATL. I thought I'd ask the board about the possibility of Steve Spagnuolo being our new DC. There is a strong possibility that Spags won't be back with the Rams after this season and his record to date is around 10 and 36. Based on his three year record he probably won't be offered a HC job in the NFL.

Here is Spag's coaching history. With the exception of the past three years he has been a defensive coach in some capacity. For 2001 - 2003 he was the DB coach for PHI. It's tough to gauge how good a job he did but here are some numbers:

2001 - pass coverage DVOA was 4th

2002 - pass coverage DVOA was 5th

2003 - pass coverage DVOA was 13th; 12th in passing yards allowed per game with 194.6 (ATL was 32nd); 5th in opponents yards per completion

I didn't find stats for 2001 and 2002. Spags was the DC for the NYG for 2007 and 2008.

2007 - NYG defensive DVOA was 14th, 15th agains the pass and 9th against the rush; 7th in total defense, 11th in passing yards allowed, 1st in the NFL with 53 sacks and 8th in rushing defense. The NYG's were 5th in % of opponents third down conversions allowed.

2008 - defensive DVOA was 8th, 11th against the rush and 12th against the pass. They were 5th in total defense, 8th against the pass, 9th against the rush and 6th in sacks with 42. They dropped down to 21st in % third down conversions allowed.

Even though the Rams defense has not been very good over the past three years it has improved under Spags:

2009 - DVOA was 30th, 29th agains the pass and 32nd against the rush

2010 - DVOA was 20th, 21st against the pass and 20th against the rush

2011 - DVOA is 19th, 14th against the pass and 25th against the rush

I don't know how much hands on Spags has with the Rams D but I'd guess he is pretty involved with design and play calling.

Do you guys think Spags with be a good fit in ATL? Would he be an upgrade compared to BVG?

I want to start off by saying we are all on this board because each and every one of us are Falcon fans, win or loose. Now that the disclaimer has been posted let's have a good discussion.

As fans we pull for the team regardless of record or performance. There is no right or wrong way to support the team. There are posters that are the bastions of optimism and those of us that are always pessimistic, even in the face of the best wins. All of that is what makes this board great and the "discussions" engauging.

We are into the fourth year of the MS/TD era, or experiment, and the results are interesting. The first year was amazing. The second was effected by injuries but we had two winning seasons in a row! The third was a 13-3 record and #1 seed in the NFC. We were devasted by a loss to the team that would eventually win the Super Bowl. At the beginning of this season there were ideas of a 14-2 season with a championship firmly in the cross hairs. While not out of the question we are a little shakier in that outcome due to the team play this season and some untimely injuries that have popped up as of late.

Now here is my question to the board, where do we go from here as a team?

At the end of last season the idea was that ATL needed more explosive players on both sides of the ball. They have been added and there have been marginal improvements in the teams performance. The run D has improved nicely and that has been due to Ray Edwards on the DL but also Spoons early stages of coming of age, good Safety support has helped also. The pass D is the same as the past few season with the exception of a poorer pass rush this season than last. The offense has struggled with identity and consistency all season with no solutions being apparent.

In the past there have been comments like:

"Chris Houston is terrible he should be cut!"

"Jenkins can't catch a cold, cut him!"

"JA98 is the worst defensive lineman in history! Cut him!"

Interstingly those players have left ATL and are having good season with their new teams. MJ's catch rate is 69% which is much higher than when he was with ATL. Houston was/is DET's best DB and is playing much better now than when he was in ATL. Looking at the numbers maybe JA98 was a bad example.

Last season and this season we are hearing:

"We'll never win a SB with Matt."

"JJ is a bust or not worth the expense."

"We won't win a playoff game when MT has more than 20 carries or MT is done."

"RW needs to be traded while we can get something for him."

"DR is a bust!"

And there are plenty of others that could be included. Here is my next question or questions.

If ATL has that many terrible or underperforming players what is the cause? No team has elite talent at every position. One variable all of the players have in common is coaching. Is this a function of weak or poor coaches and coordinators? If not does ATL have a knack for picking up and keeping poor players? If that is the case isn't it a function of the coaches and front office?

What say you Falcoholics? Going forward can ATL build a championship caliber team by swapping out a few key players or does the coaching staff need and overhaul? If an overhaul is in order to what extent?

I just ran across this article on Advanced NFL stats and wanted to share. There is a lot if information on the article and some might not be interesting but look at the section that discusses deep pass attempts:

"So if YPR is increasing, and completion percentage is about the same as it's been, QBs must be throwing deeper, right? Data in this category only goes back through 2006, but we still see a discernable trend. Contrary to what we'd expect, the trend is downward. Teams are attempting fewer deep passes, and so far 2011 has the lowest deep attempt rate of recent seasons, slightly shy of 19%."

That is counter to our comments about wanting ATL to throw a lot more deep passes. This season Matt's percent deep is 19.5%. Here is the link to the article:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/10/whats-going-on-with-passing-in-2011.html

Based on the conclusion of the article we can see one area where there is a lack of "explosiveness" in our passing attack.

There have been a ton of comments on the board this season about ATL and missed tackles. When watching a game it seems to be a HUGE issue. Sometimes it's easy for the eye to be fooled by the heat of the moment and things not to be as bad a we think.

A week ago ProFootball Focus looked at all of the teams in the NFL and their frequency of missed tackles. The results can be found here:

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/11/24/stories-of-the-season-missed-tackles/

In case you don't want to look ATL was ranked as the 8th worst tacking team in the NFL. That equates to a missed tackle percentage of 10.83%. Some other interesting results -

PHI is the second worst tackling team

NO is the 5th worst

TB is the worst and SF is the best

Well, not very good, not very good at all.  Most of us have commented on Bakers poor play over the past three season.  Some say he should be given more time at LT, some think he should be moved to another position and other think he should be cut.  There was an analysis of pass blocking efficiency done by Pro Football focus in September that is very telling.  While the article is almost two months old Bakers play, when he has played, has not changed. 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/09/30/signature-stats-snapshot-pass-blocking-efficiency/

Do the numbers in the article change your opinion on Baker or just reinforce what you already knew?  Also, Baker is not the only Falcon mentioned in the article.

Just read this on SBNation, http://atlanta.sbnation.com/2011/10/12/2485260/falcons-vs-panthers-mike-mularkey-limits-all-criticism-of-offense-to/in/2247125 :

Falcons Vs. Panthers: Mike Mularkey Limits All Criticism Of Offense To Mike Mularkey Only
by Steven Godfrey • Oct 12, 2011 5:56 AM PDT

Pity us, the foolish pro football fans and media, for according to Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey, we are incapable of grasping the higher logic of an offensive scheme like Atlanta's. Even when it's seemingly plain-as-day busted and broke in the second half of games, that's just not the case. We're just not "seeing" it the right way.

The AJC's Jeff Schultz is among those naive enough to question Mularkey. When Schultz look at the Falcons' disparity in scoring and total yardage between the first and second halves of recent games, he assumed opposing defenses were adjusting to what the Falcons were presenting, and Mularkey's offense wasn't responding in turn. What foolish conjecture!

 Mularkey dismissed the adjustments theory, saying, "That's the outside sources who would say that." (I would be the outside source here.) He then pointed to penalties and breakdowns, not play-calling, as reasons for the scoring drop.

"The general public and yourself would not know that unless you studied film, knew what the game plan was and knew what was happening in the first half and not the second half," he said.

He's right. I don't study game film. I also can't rebuild a transmission, but I'm pretty sure I can tell when one blows up.

Wow, if there was any part of me that liked MM before the article it died.  Not only is an antiquated OC he is also an arrogant ass.

Just read this on Yahoo Sports:

The Falcons are interested in re-signing OLB Stephen Nicholas — they issued him a restricted free-agent tender — but it's likely that he will be an unrestricted free agent when a new collective bargaining agreement is in place and that tender will be nullified. We hear Nicholas, a four-year veteran, is looking for an opportunity to start and be paid a starter's salary in a long-term deal. He might have to compete against 2010 first-round pick Sean Weatherspoon for playing time if he were to return to Atlanta. It appears, though, Nicholas will get an opportunity to gauge his value on the open market.

Sounds like the article assumes that Peterson is a lock.  That would leave a big gap in the LB corps.

I have a crazy question I want to run by the experts on the board.  Ryan Kerrigan has garnered a lot of positive feedback as a potential #1 pick for ATL.  To be fair there are more than a few posters here that don't care for him.  Now for the question, if ATL is looking hard at Kerrigan why not consider Houston instead?  They are about the same size (height and weight), essentially the same number of reps on the bench at the Combine, essentially the same 40 and 10 speeds, Houston had a little better vertical and cone speed.  Both had very good numbers this past season.

What would be the concerns about drafting Houston at #1?  Is he too small for DE? Or is it that he played OLB this past season and ATL couldn't use him as a DE?  Would it be a "wasted" pick if he was drafted #1 and played OLB instead of DE?