I've come to the sad realization that we do not posses the talent to be a successful NBA team (I mean in terms of wins not dollars, Cohan!). Not just now, when everyone is injured, but even 100% healthy we'd only be able to manage to get swept in the first round by the Lakers. So this post is about a decision that our front office is in the process of making. Upgrade our talent or wait for ours to develop.

Looking ahead to next year, barring any trades or free agent aquisitions, our team is fairly solid. I'd say Andris, Buike, and Monta are the only players we have that would start on a top 10 NBA squad. That is a problem, a big problem. We do have an excellent 6th man in Maggette, Turiaf is also a great player to have coming off the bench, so are Randolph, Wright, Morrow, and Curry. The problem is that 2 of them have to start. I believe if Wright can stay healthy, he will be better than Randolph next year. He is in a better place mentally, and he also understands the limitations of his game better than AR. Brandan could be a wild card for us, he has an efficient offensive game, and he plays solid defense. Even assuming that Brandan lives up to these expectations, and no one misses significant time, we'd still only manage to get about 45 wins tops. That's probably an 8th seed, maybe the 7 spot. Which means we would be playing the Lakers, Nuggets, or Rockets with Yao, any of those teams would sweep us.

However, we do have a collection of really young players witha lot of potential. We can hold on to them and see what happens with that potential, or we can use that potential to try and aquire one big piece. Many trades have been suggested, Boozer, West, Bosh, and Amar'e have all been mentioned. Bosh is the only one of them I could see as a great fit for this team. There is also the free agent market next summer that has a lot of really good players available. The one player that would best help us, and that we also could realistically sign, is Joe Johnson.

Most people around this site and those in the know with the Warriors seem to think that our biggest upgrade needs to come in the frontcourt, I disagree. As established, Buike, Monta, and Andris are starters on a top level NBA team. Ronny and Corey are great 6th/7thmen on a top level team. So that leaves us next season with Curry, Morrow, AR, Vlad, and BWright. Out of those 5, BWright is the best at what he does, and he is our best low post scorer, which is something we need. Monta, Steph, Buike, A-Mo, and Corey are our only guards, and Nellie would never use Corey as anything but a forward. Our frontcourt has AB, BW, AR, Ronny, and Vlad, we could also easily retain Mikki. When you consider that Buike's contract is up after next season, and we need another all-star player who can take over a game to help Monta, Joe Johnson seems to bee the perfect fit. Nellie would continually start Monta, Joe, and Andris, our collection of other players would allow him to play mismatches as he sees fit. This also gives Morrow and Steph time to develop, since they don't seem capable everyday starters yet, and they're probably a year or 2 away as it stands now. Plus Johnson is a solid ball handler, he passes well, excells in the up tempo style, and he plays good defense.

So that's my solution, as painful as this year will be, that seems to be the most logical solution going forward. Just the same the ticket sales are down. Us fans are sick of losing, and we're only more likely to avoid the oracle as this gets worse. Plus there is a feeling that we're waisting Monta. The pressure is there this season for them to fill seats, but the injuries have also ruined this season. What would you do?

So we're about a quarter of the way through the season, our record is 6-14, and we just came off a very embarassing loss to OKC.  Monta is an all-star, and Morrow will be at all-star weekend to shoot 3's, other than these 2 facts, and a couple surprising victories, this season has been awful!

Luckily this mostly has to do with injuries and the amount of road games we've played. I expect Biedrins and Ronny to miss the rest of this roadtrip, I also expect us to go 1-3 for the rest of this roadtrip. We'll get a slight boost when Ronny and AB get back, but right now we have little to no production from our PF's. This is at least true on the road. Luckily the second half of the schedule is littered with home games. So, I expect us to turn it around a little bit and basically go .500 the second half of the season. This is assuming we don't make a trade, this is also assuming Biedrins and Turiaf make full recoveries relatively soon. If they don't and we have to keep running with Monta and the NBDL all-star's this could be a very long season...

Anyway, this post is here so people can estimate a win total for this team, and give some reasons in support of their opinion. I'll get it started. Assuming Ronny/AB come back soon/100%, and AR/Curry/Morrow improve, I'm estimating 33 wins for this team.

33's my number, what's yours?

Cap'n Jack wants out, so I thought of ways we could let him go while getting decent value back. Since he had some specific requests, I'll address those first, then move onto some other trades I find worthwhile. There are some trades that involve dumping Maggette as well. There are still a lot of trade restrictions that don't go away until Dec 15, so this is a post that assumes Jack will get traded before the season starts. All suggested trades are trade machine approved.

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Before the draft the word from the Warriors front office was that we had four players we were not willing to trade, they were labeled "untouchables". The foursome were Monta, Morrow, Randolph, and Biedrins. I agree that these four are "untouchable" and they are a great young core to build around. After listening to Larry Riley tell the media, on mutliple occasions, that we are looking to add a veteran player who can play the 3 or the 4, who can defend and rebound well, this trade came to mind.

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So the proposed trade for Amar'e would include Andris, Buike, BWright, and either Belli or Curry. Amar'e is an amazing NBA player, I'd love to see him on our team, more as a PF though. What were our issues as a team last year? Defense, Rebounding, and Health. Our lineup now looks like this

PG:Monta/Curry/Marco 

SG:Jack/Morrow/Marco

SF:Buike/Maggette

PF:AR/BW

C:AB/Ronny

as opposed to...

PG:Monta/Curry or Marco (one is gone)

SG:Jack/Morrow

SF:Maggette/Morrow/Jack

PF:AR/Kurz?Davidson?

C:Amar'e/Ronny

This trade makes us worse on defense, especially around the perimeter and worse at rebounding, mostly by the absense of Buike. Also because AB is a better defender and rebounder compared to Amar'e. It also takes away our depth. After last seasons experience, I don't see why Riley would want to dump our depth. Imagine if Amar'e goes out for a month or 2 with an injury. Ronny and AR, with Corey back to playing PF, that sounds awful.

Keeping Buike allows us to play Corey off the bench. (6th man of the year!). His absense also makes us very thin at the SF position. This trade is asking for too much.

If the trade was AB and Corey (to make the contracts work) plus Curry or Belli, then I would really be wrestling with this one. But the trade that is actually being proposed is too much. Especially when thinking about DEFENSE, REBOUNDING, and DEPTH. That's just me. What do you think?

UPDATE: According to Marcus Thompson, if they wait until after July 1st, they could do the trade without Buike, which is better, but I don't think Phoenix would do it without him...

Many of us perceive the PG position as our biggest problem. Nellie has been saying for the last 2+ seasons that Monta needs to be a PG in this league in order to be successful, I agree. He is too small to be a great 2 guard. Many of us feel that Monta should be traded because he doesn't fit well in our backcourt. Others suggest trading back for BD, while others see no problem with Monta being our PG. Here's what I think.

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Not really, but don't worry because it doesn't matter. Everyone seems to be stressing about the upcoming draft. I don't know why. No rookie, none, will play a significant role for us next year. Unless of course everyone is injured like last season, but then it won't matter becasue we would just be heading back to the lottery. The truth is, in case you forgot, Nellie doesn't play rookies, unless he absolutely has to. I know pretty much everyone is praying for a PG. There have been some pretty lively debates thanks to Brandon Jennings and Jrue Holliday. But it doesn't matter.

We'll most likely be starting Jack and Monta with Jamal, Marco, A-Mo, and possibly CJ backing them up. Keeping in mind that Nellie doesn't play rookies , there is no PG, with the possible exception of Rubio, that would even play (unless we're in garbage time). Our backcourt is set next year, unless we don't resign CJ, than we need a 3rd string PG, I guess there's where a rookie comes in.

Monta/Jamal/CJ? or Marco

Jack/Marco/Morrow

Buike/Maggs/AR or Jack or Morrow

AR or BWright/ the other half of the twin towers/Maggs/Buike/Jack

Biedrins/Turiaf

Being that Nellie will only play 10 or 11 guys at most, I just listed all 11 (excluding CJ). Looking at that lineup actually makes me feel that we need another SF/PF. Someone had mentioned Portland trading up to get Curry. If we could get Outlaw and their 24, that to me is the best scenario. Outlaw off the bench is perfect for us. Plus we would get a quality NBA player guaranteed, none of these rookies is a guarantee. Being that this trade won't happen either, our 7 pick doesn't matter. Nellie probably likes this lineup anyway because the mass amount of SG/SF we have will allow him to play Maggs, Jack, and Buike some at the 4, which Nellie loves.

So while it is fun to imagine us getting a ROY or even a solid rookie who will be significant, the fact of the matter is that it's not going to happen. But hey, the season is over, we're almost 5 months away from the next one, at least this gives us an excuse to get together and talk about our Warriors.

Plus we were injured last year, there is reason to 'Believe' in next season.