I have a few theories about the Chiefs draft.

First, it appears to have been decided for quite some time that Berry would be the pick if he was there at #5.

Early on we heard this:

Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff calls the safety-at-the-top-of-the-draft debate a conundrum. "It's been on my mind a lot lately," he said, "and I realize I'm speaking out of both sides of my mouth here, but Berry's a really good player. It's been on my mind quite a bit recently. You want the good hitter with hip movement, able to turn and run, but then reality sets in. I was talking to [Kansas City GM] Scott Pioli about Berry, and I said, 'Scott, this guy's your pick.' And he said, 'You know how I feel about safeties that early.' And I understand.''

And Joel touched on whether this was a smokescreen here:

2010 NFL Draft: Chiefs GM Scott Pioli's Eric Berry Smokescreen

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/4/23/1439328/2010-nfl-draft-chiefs-gm-scott

It looks to me like that is precisely what happened.  Not a big plot, just no voluntary hand tipping when asked, and nothing to make teams ahead of the Chiefs further consider Berry.  Apparently, Berry has long been viewed as an exception at safety.

That brings me to my second theory.  I think it's possible Berry would have been the pick at one, had the Chiefs been there - or in other words, that Berry was number one on the Chiefs board.

The reason I say this is because of the high level of expectation of the draftee by this regime. It looks to me that 'character issues' that were considered legitimate took candidates entirely off the board in this draft from the Chiefs' perspective.  

With this short board, there's a decent chance that no one picked ahead of Berry would be 'right 53' material when it came down to it.  Additionally, safety would have been a relatively economic pick at #1.

These theories are hypothetical and ultimately immaterial, but this next theory is a bit more testable as we watch the team in the future:

I say the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at having just conducted the best draft in NFL history.

They have to get very lucky, granted.  But just about every player they drafted is a guy who *could* be super.  And I'm not saying that in the way that you can say that about every kid in the draft.  I'm saying,

Eric Berry - Pretty safe pick to get a probowl someday, outside shot at best safety of all time (5%!?)

Dexter McCluster - decent chance of a probowl someday.  If, when all is said and done, this guy has Sproles or Bush numbers, that's serious stuff - and there's gotta be a 10-20% chance of that right?  looks like he has a pretty good chance to have better receiving numbers than either of those guys.  and if john madden catches wind that this kid can block...

Javier Arenas - pretty good chance this guy returns a touchdown or two.  what are the chances he is a dante hall for 3 or 4 years?  if it's 10-20%, nice pick - and if he can play 3rd corner for some years, gravy.

Tony Moeaki - nobody says he'll be Gonzalez, but the scenario I'm envisioning (30%? better?) is KC has a top 10 offense for the next 5 years or more.  maybe not this year - but don't count it out either.  if Moeaki stays healthy, the skills are there (and talent around him) that could have him be one of the more productive TE's in the league for a while.  If so, it's a solid pick to say the least.

And that's not all of course.  Asamoah has a decent chance to be a great.  Lewis and Sheffield are fine prospects - late round choices, but supposedly a deep draft.  What if one or two of these proves productive or even key over the next 10 years as the Chiefs get a couple rings?  What if Berry is all he's cracked up to be along with that, and McCluster is a 1000 all purpose yards guy for a long time?

Couple all that luck with the Hunt/Pioli/Haley/Cassel/Crennel story, and it's an NFL Films special waiting to happen.  This draft easily has a greater than average chance to go down as the best in NFL history.  What else could a guy want from a draft?

We often make the mistake of assuming that the statistics from last season give us an accurate view of how good a team will be on week one.  It sheds more insight than having no information at all, but it only shows so much. Conjecture regarding the Chiefs' 2010 success is better served by the following formula:

(as good as they were at the end of last season) + (improvements that have been made) - (deterioration/lack of retention).  More explanation later.

The Broncos game was the high point of last season, week 17 Chiefs win 44-24.  If that game were repeated 100 times, perhaps the Chiefs only win 50 of them, or less.  (I tend to believe this is not the case, and I also believe that the Broncos wouldn't start out 6-0 again in 100 tries). 

But at any rate, we can see that, even if the Chiefs played 'over their heads' in that game, that however good they were week 17 2009 is a better indicator of how good they will be in week one 2010 than however good they were on week one 2009 - as players and teams generally improve over time.  However, too often we look to the average of games 1-16 of last season as an indicator of this year's team.

To our benefit, the Chiefs are an example of a team that improved, I would say, more than the average over the course of the season.

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At the end of the 2008 season, all 22 of the Colts starters had never played for another team.

source

Talk about developing your own players throught the draft -- the Colts are just like the Royals -- except they give the second contract.

I think there is a good argument for doing almost nothing in free agency this year, drafting some more young studs, and seeing what everyone on our team can do this year with good coaching -- then next year go for broke on that trophy with a couple big money signings and an extra year of experience for this young, and talented, team.

The big problem there is the QB situation.  Thigpen deserves a shot, IMO, but if he fails, we can't really legitimately expect the superbowl run with whatever first year starter we bring in.

In other news, 4 Colts free agents last i checked:

OL Jeff Saturday

WR Marvin Harrison

LB Tyjuan Hagler

RB Dominic Rhodes

1.  who to keep?

2.  who to let go and for what price?

3.  what are our strongest positions?  if we could make no changes, what would they be in 5 years?

4.  what are our weakest positions?  will those positions be better as our current players develop?

5.  what positions are best addressed via the draft?  free agency?

6.  stuff.

KCChiefs depth chart

Defense

Special teams

what is the worst player you can name, that if every player on the team were that good at their position, the team would make the super bowl?

for instance:  obviously, if every player on the team were as good as walter payton, the team would win the super bowl.  harvey williams, not so much.

who is the worst player you can name whose level of talent at every position would make a winning super bowl team?

doesn't have to be NFL i guess.  could name 1 chief and 1 player at large.

We've heard it said here that Pioli runs a tight ship.

The 'lockdown' at Arrowhead is driving lazy sports writers crazy, but I enjoy the speculation it breeds. We find out who is doing their homework, and who has been spoonfed, living off the teat.

Pioli's secrecy has created a situation in which sports writers and fans seem to crave information about the Chiefs even more than before -- how is that bad for the team? In my opinion, it's a great strategy. He will endlessly answer questions of philosophy, but as to specifics, you are welcome to draw your conclusions on gameday.

Pioli is methodical to the point that some are frustrated. Primetime put it like this:

Some semblance of urgency in that last statement which is good to hear. This process has been more reminiscent of the turtle rather than the hare.

Depending on the 'prism' you're looking through, Pioli either has an open mind about every player and coach, and isn't making any rash decisions, or each toenail requires a doctoral thesis, and by then Cowher is gone.

I like the slow and steady approach, but I can appreciate a revolution. There is some truth to the idea that 'a good plan executed now is better than a great plan executed later', then again it's not untrue that 'slow and steady wins the race.'

Then again, cliches are not logic.

At any rate, I like the fresh eyes that are on the Chiefs this season. Pioli is confident in his process, and it will be fun for me to watch whether it translates to a super bowl.

Gotta love a guy who says, "We're in the market for good football players that are good people."

Here's what I want you to do:

Give me your predictions: (copy and paste between the ---'s into your reply)

-----------
Chiefs 2009 reg season wins =
Chiefs 2009 postseason wins =
Chiefs 2010 reg season wins =
Chiefs 2010 postseason wins =
With the #3 overall pick the chiefs select =
True or False: Chiefs draft a QB in 2009 =
True or False: Chiefs draft a RB in 2009 =
True or False: Chiefs draft a WR in 2009 =
Chiefs defensive coordinator (DC) will be =
Chiefs offensive coordinator (OC) will be =
True or False: Todd Haley will coach longer than his 4 year contract =
True or False: Tyler Thigpen starts game 1 2009 =
Chiefs starting QB in week 1 of 2010 =
Chiefs starting RB in week 1 of 2010 =
True or False: Larry Johnson carries the ball week 1 of 2009 =
True or False: Dwayne Bowe is our #1 receiver week 1 of 2010 =
True or False: TG starts game 1 2009 for the Chiefs =
Chiefs defensive formation in 2009 will be =
Chiefs defensive formation in 2010 will be =
Chiefs overall offensive standing 2009 =
Chiefs overall offensive standing 2010 =
Chiefs overall defensive standing 2009 =
Chiefs overall defensive standing 2010 =

----------------------

By 'overall offensive standing' I mean what will the Chiefs rank in total yardage: 3rd?  or 30th?

Here are some options for offensive and defensive formations for reference.

If you think the chiefs will trade down the #3 pick say so.

I left out 'chiefs will draft LB etc' in 2009 because I don't think there's much doubt and/or controversy surrounding other positions.  If I should have included something else, include away.

Careful with the 2009/2010 thing.

As to the Deadbolt Lock part, I have my tongue in my cheek.  Even if you aren't sure, guess, and say you are ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN.  It's what Chris Mortenson  would do, after all.  To those who would say, 'we have to wait for FA and the draft to know any of this stuff', well, that just makes hitting a homerun in your predictions that much sweeter.

If we could all paypal in $5 for a prediction pool that would be awesome.  Unfortunately, our government will not let us because it will cause teenagers to do meth and eat live babies.

Call out your predictions, hopes, or hair-brained theories about the Chiefs.

Mine:

1.  Chiefs keep Gailey and have a top 5 offense this year

2.  Chiefs will primarily run a spread

3.  Chiefs will not get suggs, vilma, haynesworth, or ray lewis

I would love to hear what some of you guys on AP think about the draft, free agency, next season, the 3 year plan, or whatever else suits your fancy.

Two more words

Player A figures to be a 3 points per game improvement over your already great offense.

Player B figures to represent a 2 points per game improvement over your shoddy, hole filled defense.

Which player?

duh ;)

That said, many other things come into whether the elephant in the room, Crabtree, is the 'BPA' on Pioli's board.  What's his character?  Work ethic?  Contract demands?  Agent?

In the interest of reaching 75 words, here ya go.

To me it's obvious.

1.  Promote Gailey to HC, or retain him as OC and bring in an open minded HC.  Age does not matter -- but experience is underrated lately.  Gailey has one of the best offensive minds in football.

2.  Draft  Crabtree, a huge offensive weapon and the most obviously standout talent in the draft.  Fits perfectly in a spread offense (in which Gailey, Thigpen, TG, Charles, and Bowe have already excelled).  Otherwise, use the tremendous leverage of it being common knowledge that Crabtree will not drop past 4 as a bargaining chip to negotiate a killer trade down.

3.  Draft and/or pickup in FA an O-line that will protect Thigpen enough to be able to evaluate his actual talent this year.

4.  Pick up Harrell in the late rounds (spread QB).

5.  Next year, evaluate Thigpen Harrell situation, pick up Vick and exploit the league negativity by grabbing this tremendous upside for cheap (see Randy Moss).  Otherwise, draft Tebow as the 2nd QB/ HB / TE.

6. Gailey will dominate the league offensively with this scenario -- no doubt in my mind (see my sig).

7. 'shoring up' the defense occurs with all draft picks and FA opportunities that do not obstruct the previous steps.  Focus on D-line and LB.

It seems that I'm ignoring defense -- quite the contrary -- I believe our defense is unique in that it SUCKED but doesn't suck.  Our corners are actually good and there are several line and LB guys who will be good with only a change of coaching.  I don't think our D needs as much help as the numbers would suggest.

Face it guys, the wildcat's taking over the NFL in the next few years -- write it down -- it's the new forward pass.  We are in a unique position -- we have Chan Gailey (who invented the Slash offense with Kordell Stewart in Pittsburgh), we have a team who ran the spread for most of last year, we have a scatback in Charles, we have Bowe and TG to help stretch the field, and we have a shot at Crabtree.

We are in the best position of any team in the league to show just what 2 quarterbacks on a field can do.

Thoughts?

I'd like to dispel a few myths about the Chiefs current situation that have cropped up in discussions here and elsewhere.

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 Pioli's being unfair to Herm
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this opinion stems from an assumption that Herm knows no more about his situation than we do.  Obviously, since he speaks to Pioli and Hunt every day, he knows far MORE about his situation than we do.  For all we know, he may know exactly what his future is.

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