SB Nation User Blog: nbrans

Right now it appears that Oklahoma City is leaning towards picking Rubio and keeping him as a...

nbrans — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:48:01 -0000

Right now it appears that Oklahoma City is leaning towards picking Rubio and keeping him as a trading chip to potentially use this summer. A few sources we spoke with mentioned that they still expect Rubio to end up in New York when it’s all said and done.

Oklahoma City is also active in trade talk with Phoenix, with their main target appearing to be Robin Lopez. They are reportedly offering Phoenix their 2010 unprotected pick back in return for Lopez, but that seems like a very high price for the Suns to pay.

Sacramento seems to be leaning towards Tyreke Evans from what we’re hearing, and may have even told him as much.

DraftExpress

Sacramento has reportedly offered Detroit the #23 and #31 picks in exchange for the #15. The Kings...

nbrans — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 02:46:07 -0000

Sacramento has reportedly offered Detroit the #23 and #31 picks in exchange for the #15. The Kings may target DeJuan Blair at 15 if he’s available, while the Pistons like Toney Douglas and possibly DaJuan Summers.

Draft Express

Hollinger on Rubio

nbrans — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 20:01:31 -0000

Hollinger on Rubio

"OK, it's time to shine a harsher light here. There's one thing working hugely against Rubio's status as an A-list prospect that nobody seems to want to mention, so let me put it out there: There's very little evidence he can score at anything approaching an acceptable rate for an NBA point guard.

We have very little recent Euroleague data to work with from Rubio -- just a 66-minute sample from this year and a larger sample from two years earlier -- but both sets translate to scoring about five points per 40 minutes and shooting in the low 30s. Ugh. Rubio shot better in the Spanish ACB league this season, including 25-of-62 on 3-pointers, but he also shot only 39 percent on 2s against a lower level of competition.

Same goes for his alleged breakout in the Olympics -- as heralded as he was for his play, he made nine baskets in eight games and shot 28.1 percent for the tournament. And while one of those games was against a team full of U.S. All-Stars, he wasn't bedazzling the Germans or Angolans either. Obviously he's a Jason Kidd-like rarity in that he can have a heavy impact on the game without scoring, but if his shooting numbers don't improve, he'll make Kidd look like Rick Barry."

Chad Ford: Not a sure thing the Kings would take Rubio #4

nbrans — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 19:18:20 -0000

Chad Ford: Not a sure thing the Kings would take Rubio #4

"Rubio has been pretty adamant that he doesn't want to play in Memphis. Although he doesn't have the same objection to Oklahoma City, it sounds as though the Thunder are leaning toward drafting either James Harden or Stephen Curry. So, if neither team makes a trade, Rubio would be there at No. 4.

But sources in Sacramento say that the Kings have reservations about Rubio and that it's far from a done deal that they will take him if he is on the board."

Gani WithdraLawals From the Draft

nbrans — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 19:17:51 -0000

Gani WithdraLawals From the Draft

"I'm going back to school," Lawal said. "I sat down with my family and after going through this positive experience, where I learned a lot and got a lot of exposure, I realized the best thing for me to do was to go back."

Positional Rankings, or How I Still Fear This Year's Draft

nbrans — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 23:58:27 -0000

It’s been some time since my last foray into the world of Sactown Royalty Fanposts. My last entry was about How to Avoid a Draft Bust, and I tagged it with the ominous subtitle "how I learned to fear this year’s draft."

Well, that was January. A lot has changed since then and… actually not much has changed. I still fear this draft. I still think James Harden is a future NBA roleplayer and Rubio’s lack of athleticism scares me to death. But hey – the guy can just flat out play, right? Um….. Right?

In order for that joke to make sense and to explain where I’m coming from with the rankings, here is a brief rundown of my drafting philosophy as expressed more extensively in that old post:

1.   Avoid guys who are underathletic and/or undersized but who pundits say “can just flat out play."
2.   Raw upside guys: a) must be athletic; b) SGs and SFs need to be able to shoot and have a handle; c) bigs must have good hands; d) point guards have to be very quick and either really good at scoring or really good at passing.
3.   Watch out for the unmotivated

In the hopes that posterity will either remember me as an anonymous basketball savant or, much more likely, as an unadulterated idiot, I thought I would provide some draft capsules on this year’s crop of players for everyone to argue over.

Positional rankings, point guard to center. Here they come...

Point Guard.

1.    Jeff Teague. Yeah. I said it! Jeff. Teague. Not Rubio, not Jennings. Jeff "1/1 assist to turnover ratio" Teague. Here’s what you need to know about Jeff Teague. The guy is one of the quickest, most athletic point guard prospects that has come into the league in the last few years. He’s got great size for the PG position. He can get into the lane and shoot floaters or dunk over people. He’s also a deadeye shooter. WHEN HAS THAT NOT WORKED? Ask Monta Ellis how that worked out. Then tell him that scooters are for girls.
2.    Ricky Rubio. Why is he not #1? I’m sorry, he’s just not that quick, and this is an era when NBA point guards are faster than ever. In the absolute bestest of best scenarios, Ricky Rubio is an athletically limited, great-passing, decent defending point guard who you can’t really count on to score. Which, okay, hello Mark Jackson or post-prime Jason Kidd. Is that worth trading up to #2 or praying that Rubio doesn’t pull a Fran Vasquez for the next two years? In the meantime, it remains to be seen if he can keep up with NBA point guards, he turns the ball over too much, and he can't shoot unless completely set and wide open. He's got a long way to go in the best case scenario. Stop Photoshopping Ricky desktop images: Rubio skeptics unite! You have nothing to lose but your man crush.
3.    Stephen Curry. The most surprising thing about Stephen Curry isn’t that the NBA could actually have a girlier looking player than Tyronn Lue. Nope. If you watched Davidson this season you know what I’m talking about: Stephen Curry is actually a pretty amazing passer. The quickness deficit remains. But with that passing mixed with his scoring ability, Curry could “just flat out play” himself into a pretty incredible pick & roll point guard. And then give up ten thousand points on the other end. This guy is destined to play for Mike D’Antoni or Don Nelson. Or, uh, Geoff Petrie.
4.    Brandon Jennings. Have you seen the TV show version of Friday Night Lights? There’s this character in the first season called Voodoo Tatum who is a Katrina refugee and he interviews potential coaches in a hotel rooms where they pledge to give his family houses and money if he’ll play for their team. Then he screws over the Dillon High team and bolts. Brandon Jennings may be a talented, athletic, raw point guard prospect. I can’t shake the image of Voodoo Tatum.
5.    Jonny Flynn. I really want to like Flynn more than I do. On paper everything checks out. He’s 6’0”, he’s tough, he’s quick, he showed some clutchness late in the season. But he’s not that great of a shooter, not that great of a passer, not that great of a scorer, and he has a bit of Jason Williams in him when it comes to his decisionmaking. It’s really tough to make it as a point guard in the NBA, and there’s something about Flynn's inability to really stand out in any one or two facets of the game that makes me feel like he’s destined to disappoint relative to where he'll be chosen.

Others:
Darren Collison. You know what you’re getting with Collison. Good quickness, good passing, good defense, good floor leadership. Nothing special. Probably destined to be a career backup. That’s not a bad thing at #23.
Ty Lawson. I liked him better when he was more talented and his name was Ray Felton.
Eric Maynor. Sean Singletary wants his career trajectory back.
Patty Mills. Quick quick quick. Streaky streaky streaky. Let someone else draft him let someone else draft him let someone else draft him. TJ Ford or Marcus Banks. Flip a coin.
Jrue Holiday. I want this guy’s publicist. He showed absolutely nothing at UCLA to justify a 1st Round Pick, let alone lottery consideration. It makes no sense whatsoever. Let's move on.

Shooting Guard.

1. Tyreke Evans. If you can imagine a spectrum of John Salmons to Brandon Roy… Evans is somewhere in there. He’s similar to those guys in that he needs to have the ball to be effective. But is he more Salmons, needing to pound the ball and somewhat limited athletically but really crafty penetrating? Or can he be Roy, deadly crunch time player and a killer passer? Tough to say. He doesn't have great size, but Evans has some serious talent with the ball, he's got crazy long arms, and he's athletic enough that I think he's got the best chance at stardom out of this class of shooting guards. I also really don't think he's a point guard.
2. James Harden. In the annals of NBA Draft combine history, the nugget that James Harden scored a higher vertical leap than Dwyane Wade surely does more than anything else to invalidate the entire exercise. Harden has some definite strengths: he's a surprisingly good finisher, he's got good all-around skill, he's a solid passer, and very few bearded players in NBA history have been busts. However, his weaknesses are also manifold: he's undersized, he's not that quick, he can't go right, he's not a great leaper (sorry combine), he's not great at creating his own shot, he doesn't have great elevation on his jumper, and he has an unfortunate last name. Ultimately, when I add up the strengths and subtract the minuses, I'm left with one conclusion: NBA roleplayer. How many undersized AND underathletic guards are stars in the NBA? Honestly. He'll give you some good minutes, but you're going to be crying in a few years if you think he's going to be a star.
3. DeMar DeRozan. DeMar DeRozan is the type of player who can jump out of the gym in a combine test but you might go an entire game without seeing evidence of freakish athleticism. He's definitely athletic, but he's not a Gerald Wallace type player who shows it constantly on the floor. Instead he's more of a midrange player with a shaky handle and is streaky from outside. DeRozan has both outsized talent and outsized bust potential.
4. Jodie Meeks. Let's talk about this for a moment. Of the undersized SGs left on the board, does anyone really think that Gerald Henderson and Wayne Ellington are better than Jodie Meeks? If so, please find a tape of Meeks against Tennessee when he exploded for 50+ points, and, oh yeah, also had 8 rebounds and 4 assists. Or maybe the one against Arkansas where he had 45/7. Meeks might not make it as a pro because he's undersized, but take Henderson and Ellington out of the state of North Carolina and we wouldn't even be talking about them. Meeks can score from everywhere. He was basically Kentucky's entire offense and he still scored like crazy. He's got some limitations, but he's the best candidate in the draft to be the next Anthony Morrow. Which would be totally fine relative to where he'll be drafted.
5. Terrence Williams. I like Terrence Williams a lot. He's tough, he's athletic, he can rebound, he has a lot of skills. Unfortunately, scoring the basketball is not one of those skills. You have to be REALLY awesome as a glue guy to stay on the floor as an NBA guard if you can't score, and no one has any idea what kind of man defense Williams plays because Lousiville zones. Williams seems like he'd be perfect on a contender as a do-everything hustle guy, but he needs the right situation for his skills to shine. He also strikes me as thoroughly insane.

Others: Chase Budinger. I mean, come on now. Really? Budinger? He's not quick, his game comes and goes, and if it weren't for his random 40" vertical he'd probably be on a beach somewhere trying to decide if he should hang ten or hit on your girlfriend again.
Gerald Henderson and Wayne Ellington. Henderson is athletic but can't shoot. Ellington can shoot but isn't athletic. They're both undersized shooting guards who can't create their own shot and whose stock was inflated by playing in the state of North Carolina. They should totally get married and have lots of babies together, one of whom might be a good NBA player.
Dionte Christmas. He can shoot and score. He's not a terrific athlete but he is a very good candidate for some instant offense off the bench. His last name would also probably give Jerry Reynolds a punnerific anyeurism.
Nick Calathes. Enh. That's all I have to say. Enh.

Small Forward

1. No One. This group of small forwards is so bad no one deserves to be listed #1.
2. Earl Clark. I mean, I guess. He is a really athletic 6’10” small forward who can handle the ball, run the floor, and looks like an NBA player. One problem. He. Can’t. Shoot. He can’t shoot. He can't shoot from inside, he can't shoot from outside. And NBA small forwards need to be able to shoot.
3. Omri Casspi. Remember about 10 years ago how there were all those articles about that red headed kid they were calling the Jewish Jordan and he didn’t play on the Sabbath? Whatever happened to that guy? Huh. All of this is to say, I know nothing about Omri Casspi except that he’s from Israel and he's supposed to be tough and reasonably athletic. Let’s hope he turns out better than the last Jewish Jordan.
4. Victor Claver. Super-athletic, 6'10", skinny, and a turnover machine. He can finish strong and shoot from outside. Nothing in between.
5. Sam Young. A pretty solid all-around player, could be a Courtney Lee-type who plays tough defense and doesn't screw up too much at everything else. The drawback is that he's already 24, so probably not as much superduper upside potential as the other players.

Others:
Danny Green. There's always a place in the NBA for okay athletes who can play okay D and knock down open jumpers but can't be counted on to score. That place is the bench.
DaJuan Summers. What in the heck happened to this guy? At the beginning of the season he looked pretty good -- he lacks any semblance of a midrange game, but he's very athletic and can shoot from outside. Then his game (and the whole Georgetown team) fell off a cliff and he was last seen on a milk carton.
Damion James. My basic philosophy is that in order to be a good NBA small forward you need to be able to handle the ball, shoot from outside, and preferably create your own shot. Barring that, you need to be a top athlete and a really good defender. James has precisely none of those qualities.
Tyler Smith. If Tyler Smith and Damion James changed jerseys at a workout and pretended to be the other person do you think anyone would notice? Me neither.

Power forwards

1. Blake Griffin. Well, the pre-draft measurements solved the mystery of the ages: Griffin really is 6'10" in shoes. He also has the arms of a T-Rex. If Griffin can perfect some type of a fall away jumper he can probably be a pretty deadly player offensively, and as David Lee demonstrates, simply being motivated can get you 15 rebounds a game. Unfortunately, Griffin is also destined to be the worst defending power forward since Vin Baker.
2. Jordan Hill. Yawn. In my experience the Hill camp is divided between people who watched him play all three years at Arizona and saw a middling power forward who got slightly less middling, and those who saw him just his junior year when he looked "halfway decent" to "pretty good" and extrapolated from that that he's got a lot of NBA potential. Hill is fine. He's got NBA size and athleticism. He'll provide a perfectly respectable 20 minutes off the bench. He's just not anything special, and anyone who is drafting him for more than just a placeholder big is going to be disappointed.
3. Josh Heytvelt. You read right, folks! #3 power forward. Heytvelt is my pick for sleeper big in this draft. He's an extremely skilled, tough, surprisingly athletic big who has quite the slew of red flags: namely that he's already 23 and was suspended a substantial length of time because he was caught with shrooms. Provided he doesn't ditch training camp for the next Phish reunion I think Heytvelt could be a really good big in the NBA. Sort of like Brad Miller's more-athletic, even-more-stoned younger brother.
4. James Johnson. There's some debate over whether Johnson projects as a small forward as a power forward. Unfortunately he's not really quick enough to be a small forward and not really big and strong enough to be a power forward. He's the ultimate tweener. As Carl Landry and Brandon Bass go to show, the undersized but skilled power forward thing works in the right situation. Johnson is going to need the right situation if he's going to avoid Kenny Thomas disease.
5. Gani Lawal. Ladies and gentlemen, the next Reggie Evans. Lawal might be the strongest guy in this entire draft besides Griffin. He's tough, he's got a nose for the ball, he's got decent hops. He's also a tad undersized and, although perfectly decent, won't wow you athletically. Is that worth the #23? You betcha. Would Petrie touch Lawal with a ten foot pole? Only if he was carrying a Marcel Proust novel.

Others: DeJuan Blair. The red flags abound. He's short. He can't jump. Word is his knees are shot. So... Who wants an earthbound 6'6" power forward with bad knees? Anyone? Anyone? Oh. Someone raised their hand. What's that? "He can just flat out play" you say? Yeah. Exactly. You can put your hand down now.
Tyler Hansbrough. He's better than Mark Madsen. Not that much better. But better enough that his buggy eyes will be around to annoy us all for years to come.
Taj Gibson. This guy is soon to be 24, so it's unlikely he's going to get a whole lot better. The good news for the team that drafts him is that he's already pretty good. He's skilled around the hoop, has good hands, and he learned 7,234 different defenses under Tim Floyd at USC.
Jeff Pendergraph. The oop to James Harden's alley, Pendergraph is a very athletic PF who excels at catching and finishing and not much else.

Centers

1. Hasheem Thabeet. Silenced a lot of doubters with a strong NCAA tournament and looks like he'll go #2 or #3 as a result. Here's something that remains underrated about Thabeet: I've never seen this guy fall for a pump fake. Do you know how hard that is? Everyone falls for pump fakes! Thabeet never, ever leaves his feet except when someone actually shoots. He hardly ever fouls. It's the reason why he's such a great shotblocker. (That and he's 7'2".) I can't believe people hate on this guy.
2. B.J. Mullens. Why is this guy so low on draft boards? I'll tell you why: Thad Matta stuck him on the bench and led a whisper campaign about his work ethic in order to hurt his draft stock so that Mullens would be forced to return for his sophomore year, nevermind that Ohio St. would have been a lot better if he had just sucked it up and played Mullens. Thad Matta? I salute your idiocy. Anyway, at age 19 Mullens is already as good as Jeff Foster and has the tools to be even better. What is it with 7'0" athletic bigs falling in the draft these past couple years (no, really, Javale McGee wants to know)?

Others: there aren't any others. At least none that I know anything about.

Annnnnd there you have it. Flame away.

This has been a Jeff Teague public service announcement. This is only a test.

nbrans — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 06:23:54 -0000

This has been a Jeff Teague public service announcement. This is only a test.

Newsday: Kings interested in Marbury, Maloofs lost hundreds of millions to Madoff?

nbrans — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 04:45:02 -0000

Newsday: Kings interested in Marbury, Maloofs lost hundreds of millions to Madoff?

"One team that is believed to have asked about Marbury is the Sacramento Kings, a franchise believed to be in serious financial distress because its owners, the Maloof family, lost hundreds of millions in the alleged Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme."

How to Avoid a Draft Bust (Or How I Learned to Fear this Year's Draft)

nbrans — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 03:52:43 -0000

(Enjoy this great draft analysis from nbrans. -- TZ)

NBA drafts are a heady mixture of science, art, luck, dice rolling, gut feelings, expertise, and luck. It is the place where otherwise rational people talk themselves into things like, "Yeah, Adam Morrison is slow, diabetic, and cried at a crucial moment in the NCAA tournament, but the guy can just flat out play!" and "I'm not sure if Rafael Araujo can beat a tortoise down the floor, but the guy can just flat out play!" And most importantly, it's a place where Chad Ford can ponder in his draft grades why Miami would have drafted Dwyane Wade over Maciej Lampe.

Fortunately, we have history as a guide, and history doesn't lie. As we avert our gaze from this trainwreck of a season to the happier thought of a lottery pick in June, I'm here to tell you that except for careers derailed by injuries, lottery busts fall into three categories:

Bust Category #1 (Duke Alumni Memorial): Guys who are undersized and/or unathletic, but who pundits say "can just flat out play."
Notable examples since 2000: Adam Morrison, Acie Law, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams, Ike Diogu, Sean May, Rafael Araujo, Nickoloz Tskitishvili, Jarvis Hayes, Mike Dunleavy, Marcus Fizer

Yes, a player can overcome a lack of size for their position with extraordinary athleticism and very good skills (Paul Millsap, Dwyane Wade, Nate Robinson). A player can also overcome a lack of athleticism with good size and extraordinary skills (Peja Stojakovic and shooting, Paul Pierce and midrange game, Sam Cassell and testicle dancing).

However, particularly if you are a guard or a small forward, you simply cannot overcome a lack of both athleticism and size and be a star, I don't care how skilled you are. Sorry James Harden, future NBA roleplayer.

Beware the guy that pundits love despite his lack of athleticism. These are the players about whom commentators say things like "(Negative negative negative) but the guy can just flat out play." This is the basketball equivalent of sentences that begin, "I'm not racist, but..." No matter what comes after the "but," you're absolutely a racist.

Bust Category #2 (Kwame Brown Memorial): Raw "upside" guys who don't pan out
Notable examples since 2000: Patrick O'Bryant, Saer Sene, Yaroslav Koralev, Robert Swift, Sebastian Telfair, Rodney White, Kedrick Brown, Stromile Swift, Jerome Moiso, Kwame Brown, Keyon Dooling.

This category is admittedly very difficult to parse out. How does one separate one's Joe Johnsons and Andrew Bynums from one's Kedrick Browns and Saer Senes? How does one separate his "unlimited upside potentials" from his "raw uncordinated unskilleds?"

Here are some of my basic rules of thumb.

1) Wings need to be able to shoot and dribble. You can always, always, always find athletic but unskilled 6'7" roleplayer guys who can come in off the scrap heap or the D-League and be a good defender. (No, really, Ruben Patterson's agent is standing by.) Want to draft a wing with the potential of being a star? Better make sure he can shoot and has a handle (sorry Earl Clark and Damion James).

2) Even properly sized and athletic bigs need to have good hands. This is very, very simple. Find me a successful big who doesn't have good hands. (I'll wait). Now look at the bigs on the above bust list. Notice anything?

3) Point guards and combo guards need to be very quick and have a terrific handle (mandatory) and either be able to score extremely well (Devin Harris), pass extremely well (TJ Ford), or both (Chris Paul). Can't score or pass? Your name might be Sebastian Telfair.

Bust category #3 (Michael Olowokandi Memorial): Knuckleheads and heart problems (of the motivation variety)
Notable examples since 2000: Fran Vazquez, Darko Miliciic, Mike Sweetney, Kwame Brown, Eddie Griffin

Also a tough category, because when faced with the prospect of making millions, even the most knucklesome of knuckleheads can discover their inner Rosie the Riveter. Thus, it is only the truly, epically insane and unmotivated who manage to bust because their insanity/lack of any motivation whatsoever. Note that Ron Artest has had a mainly productive career, so you actually have to be more insane than him. These heartless/insane players rarely announce themselves ahead of time, although this week I learned that Brandon Jennings is friends with noted laptop thief Marcus Williams, which raises as many red flags for me as three microfracture surgeries.

So what does this all mean for this draft halfway through a college basketball season that I am totally not obsessing over while watching every tangentially related game and in which we badly, badly need to avoid a bust?

Frankly, this draft sucks. Unlike the last few years, there is not a single prospect projected to go Top 10 this year who does not have some unsettling bust potential due to being possibly too small, possibly too unathletic, or possibly too raw. Yay.

Blake Griffin - It all comes down to height with him. Is he 6'10" (unlikely), 6'9" (maybe), 6'8" (probably) or 6'7" (hopefully not)? His bust potential increases exponentially every inch under 6'10". He's athletic, sure, and skilled, sure, and he gets his points and rebounds in bunches even if he's basically indifferent on the defensive end save for the occasional block. His game reminds me of a slightly less explosive, nonshotblocking Kenyon Martin (down to the ugly jumper that sometimes goes in) or a more skilled David Lee. Is that worth a #1 pick to you? Well, get used to it, because in this draft "slightly better than David Lee" might actually be worth a #1 pick.

Ricky Rubio - The real question with Ricky Rubio is this: if the Kings drafted him, how long would it take Ailene Voisin to write a double-entendre filled ode to his wizard-like skills? (answer: 17 minutes). The other question: is he the second coming of Jason Kidd or the second coming of Sean Livingston? Rubio is not that athletic. No, stop. It's ok to admit it. I don't care how good he is for his age. He's not that quick. Just come to terms with it and move on. Compare early Kidd videos to Rubio highlights and tell me what you see. Told you. So then the question is: do you like the idea of having the 2009 version of Jason Kidd on your roster, i.e. a good passer, yes, but a defensive liability who can't shoot? How is that working out for Dallas, and is that worth the #2 pick? (I know he's supposed to be a good defender but look: he's not exactly guarding Chris Paul over in Spain). Here's a test: go onto a message board and say "Ricky Rubio is not that athletic, I'm concerned." What will you hear? "But the guy can just flat out play." And there's your bright and shiny red flag. Maybe, maybe Rubio is enough of a basketball genius or just athletic enough to be like vintage Jason Kidd. We'll see.

Greg Monroe - The second coming of Chris Webber, or rather the second coming of Chris Webber after he blew out his knee and was never the same again. Monroe is a reasonably quick but earthbound power forward who is more comfortable taking the ball to the hoop, dropping incredible dimes, and shooting 15 footers than he is banging in the post. Sound familiar? Only, unlike even post-injury Webber he's allergic to rebounds and can be pushed around by any power forward with a hint of muscle definition. If you still want Monroe after that description, don't worry, we already have his long lost twin on our roster: his name is Spencer Hawes.

James Harden - You've heard he's like Brandon Roy, right? Well, he's not. Harden's not nearly as quick and is built like Mitch Richmond, which would be great if it were 1995, but things have changed just a tad since then, not least of which it's no longer permissible to hand check a dude to stop him from blowing by you into the lane. Harden has great all-around skills and is a very deft passer (provided he is dribbling to his left), but he's not that quick, not that tall, and I personally watched him struggle against Landry Fields to the point that Harden forearmed him in the face out of frustration. Who is Landry Fields? EXACTLY. Let's just say that when Harden is guarded by someone either bigger or more athletic than him (which would be, you know, every night in the NBA), he really really struggles.

Jrue Holiday - Oh, Jrue. Jrue, Jrue, Jrue. Where to start? Jrue has the potential to be a good defender. And that's about it for the positives. Oh, he can shoot. Sometimes. But don't believe what you've been told: he's a shaky, shaky ballhandler, and he has a very slow first step. He simply cannot create a shot for himself. Not even an embarrassing airball! He literally can't get a shot off. Jrue is very young and might get better someday, perhaps even this season. Until that time, he's all hype, no results.

Jordan Hill - What's not to like, right? 6'10", averaging 18/11, big and strong, looks like an NBA power forward... so why am I not more excited about him? Mainly because I feel like Hill is the guy who does just enough to tantalize you with his skills and potential so you end up getting excited, only in the end he doesn't quite deliver and you wind up even more disappointed than if he had shown nothing to begin with. Hill isn't a great shotblocker and he doesn't do the little things. He gets his points and rebounds because he's a big and strong college power forward, but it all adds up to less than the sum of the parts. He's not a Chris Wilcox-level athlete, and while he's reasonably coordinated around the hoop, he doesn't really have much of an offensive game. Think: Etan Thomas without the poetry.

Brandon Jennings - I haven't seen The Expat play and don't know much about him, other than that he's athletic and is friends with Marcus Williams. So basically 50% good, 50% horrifying.

Al-Farouq Aminu - As you drool over his high-flying highlight reels, repeat after me: "I will not draft an awkward small forward who can't shoot... I will not draft an awkward small forward who can't shoot..."

Stephen Curry - No player has had the "Negative negative negative, but he can just flat out play" tag applied more than Curry. He might be the next Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf. More likely he's the next Steve Kerr.

Hasheem Thabeet - I know. You've probably seen him and thought, "Holy crap this guy sucks." I think that too from time to time. But here's the thing: he's 7'3" and he has hops! He can run the floor, he can jump, and most importantly, he has good hands. He catches tough passes, he gets tough rebounds, he is an extremely skilled and quick shotblocker. Yes, he has his weaknesses, mainly that he occasionally looks like they pulled him off the street just before tipoff and told him to put on a uniform, he struggles against quick players, he gets muscled around from time to time, and he has a disconcerting tendency to disappear in big games. But guys: 7'3". Hops. Hands. Shotblocking. Rebounding. Count me as a fan.

And finally, the guy I want the Kings to draft, at least until I change my mind again: Jeff Teague - Dude. Is. Athletic. Very very quick, killer crossover, easily creates separation, good ballhandler, crazy hops, has the makings of a good defender. Sure he shoots from his shoulder like he's in 6th grade but hey, it goes in. Unfortunately, he's really a 6'2" shooting guard and boasts a horrendous 1/1 assist to turnover ratio. Think of him as a more athletic Ben Gordon or possibly another Gilbert Arenas. For better and worse. But his combination of blinding quickness and solid shooting doesn't come along every day.

And sometimes, after obsessing about the draft all year round, you just have to stop overthinking it.