http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/11/2790606/new-cubs-draft-strategy-player-development

Just cross linking to a fanpost on minorleagueball.com, as this topic may have interest to people on this site too. The topic is what type of players can we expect the new front office to draft as opposed to the Hendry era.

This discussion could also apply to the international free agent market, players to be acquired in trades, and potential free agent targets.

The Cubs front office has been almost totally made over, with the notable exceptions of Oneri Fleita and Tim Wilken. There has been a lot of hype about how the new group of Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod will be doing things differently and building up the farm system, but how will they actually change the draft strategy for the Cubs?

I haven't been able to find many specifics on what types of players McLeod likes to target in the draft, but here are two pieces that highlight McLeod/Epstein's tenure in Boston:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/7027/mcleod-to-change-cubs-draft-philosophy

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/10/jason-mcleod-would-bring-sterling-scouting-record-to-the-cubs/:

I'm curious what the Minorleagueball community expects will change in Chicago on draft day, now that McLeod is there. What type of players will be targeted? Will we see more high school pitchers taken early? Will there continue to be a big emphasis on "up-the-middle" type players like under Hendry/Wilken, or will we see more corner OF/1B slugger types selected?

I'm just curious on what a McLeod/Epstein type player is vs. a Hendry/Wilken player. Thanks for any insight.

Now that Jim Hendry is gone as the Cubs' GM, we may see a shift to actually offering arbitration to players with expiring contracts.  I think the Cubs should be much more aggressive in using the draft pick compensation/arbitration system to add picks, similar to how the Rays netted a record number of top 100 picks this season.  The Cubs have the payroll to absorb an expensive one year contract if a player accepts, and I think we can all agree that missing on a one year contract is much more palatable than a 3 or 4 year deal.

Mlbtraderumors.com has their projected free agent tiers at:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/elias-rankings-update-1.html 

Here are four players with expiring contracts that I think the Cubs should offer arb to after this year:

Aramis Ramirez: The Cubs hold a 16M option (2M buyout) on Ramirez for 2012, I suggest that the Cubs decline his option and then offer him arb.  If he accepts, he will probably be awarded a similar salary to this year (14.6M), which is a reasonable price for a one year deal for the best 3B free agent.  If he declines, the Cubs gain a compensation pick, which will be important to replace any picks they lose due to signing a Type A free agent.  Worst case scenario: Cubs extend him for 2-3 years and take on all the injury risk and expected decline.

Carlos Pena:  If the Cubs are serious about bringing him back for 2012, they should either be working out a deal now (unlikely given the vacancy at GM) to get him for cheaper than 2011, or they should offer him arb.  A multiyear deal doesn't make sense for him.  If the Cubs are going after Pujols and Fielder, they will obviously let Pena walk without an arb offer.

Ryan Dempster:  He holds a 14M player option that he will likely exercise (although given the rest of the pitching market he might be able to do better negotiating a long term deal this offseason than next).  If he doesn't, the Cubs should certainly offer arb, he is a Type A player and would be worth the risk of him accepting the offer, as a one year deal at about 15M wouldn't be a gross overpayment.

Kerry Wood:  He took a below market deal to return to the Cubs, he may do so again.  If he wasn't Kerry Wood, and was just another reliever with his age and stats, I would say offer him arb to try and net a pick, but I think management will not offer him arb in order to not restrict him if he does want to leave, in hopes of keeping a good relationship with him.

If the Cubs follow the strategy outlined above they stand a good chance of picking up at least one compensatory draft pick, assuming the compensation system stays the same next year.

Starting pitching has been the largest issue for the Cubs this season, and will surely be one of the areas they try to improve this offseason.  There are four sources the Cubs can tap to add starters: minor league system, bullpen conversions, trades and free agency.  I will look at each group to see who is available and highlight good candidates to improve the 2012 rotation.

Minor Leagues:

NIck Struck - He has done well in AAA, in an aggresive promotion.  He could be a darkhorse to make the rotation.

Jay Jackson - He's had an up and down year at AAA, but has done well lately.

Chris Carpenter - Effective in the majors, has had worse numbers in the minors. I think the Cubs see him as a reliever now.

Trey McNutt - He has had a down season due to injuries, I think he could rebound and come up in late 2012, but is not a realistic candidate to start the year with the big league team.

Casey Coleman - He looks like a long reliever/spot starter to me.

It doesn't look like any of these guys can be relied on for 2012.

Major League Bullpen:

Sean Marshall - He has been excellent as a setup man, and has had moderate success as a starter in the past.  Can the Cubs afford to move him, considering the ineffectiveness of Carlos Marmol?  I think Marshall is an excellent rotation candidate, the Cubs have many other bullpen options, and he would provide a cost controlled lefty in the rotation.  James Russell has pitched very well as a lefty in the pen, he could move up to replace Marshall.

Jeff  Samardzija - More effective in the pen this year, its probably best to leave him in the role he's been most effective at, provided the Cubs bring him back at all.

Trades:

The Braves, Twins, Rays, A's, and White Sox all have strong major league rotations and/or good pitching prospects available to replace major league starters, so they could be good trade partners.  This is the hardest group to predict, so I won't list particular trade ideas, but the following players could be available.

Jake Peavy - Injury prone and expensive, but he could benefit from a return to the weaker league.

John Danks - He has been rumored to be available, and we all know Kenny Williams is an aggresive trader.

Derek Lowe - The Braves could replace him with Mike Minor or Julio Tehran and not miss a beat.

Jair Jurgens - He's had a much better year than Lowe, but he still might be available given his inconsistent past, and the better return he would command.

Trevor Cahill/Gio Gonzalez - The A's have an anemic offense and might look to capitalize on the strong numbers these two have posted.

Rays - The Rays have Matt Moore waiting in the wings, so they could look to move Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann to shore up another part of their team.

Twins - Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Brian Duensing could be available this offseason.

There are certainly good pitchers out there that are available, but the Cubs have a limited pool of prospects to deal from, so I don't see a repeat of the Matt Garza trade, but rather a deal to acquire a Derek Lowe or Scott Baker who would not cost as much in prospects.

Free Agents:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html

CC Sabathia - Obviously the prize of the 2012 pitching class, but I imagine the Yankees will drive his price up such that the Cubs can't pursue both CC and Pujols/Fielder.

CJ Wilson - A good pitcher, but it is fairly likely that the recently free spending Rangers resign him.

Chris Carpenter - I don't know how the Cardinals are leaning on his option, but I imagine it depends largely on the outcome of the Pujols negotiations.

Ryan Dempster - He will most likely return to the Cubs on a player option.  I'm ok with this, I think he has pitched better than his numbers suggest, and keeping him on a one year deal would be good.

Roy Oswalt -He has 16M mutual option with the Phillies, I don't know if he'll be available or not.  He is not the same pitcher he used to be, but he would certainly be an upgrade for the Cubs.

Edwin Jackson - The guy has been traded a ton, but he is a useful innings eater with flashes of something better.

Mark Buerhle - Similar to Jackson, but older.

Various other pitchers - Jon Garland, Joel Piniero, Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm, etc.  I don't know that adding a pitcher of this group would be worth the dollars improvement over giving Coleman/Jackson/Samardzija the starts.  They would certainly be a step up over the Doug Davis/Rodrigo Lopezes the Cubs have used this year.

Yu Darvish - A Japanese phenom that may be posted this offseason.  I expect the cost to be prohibitive, and the Cubs reluctant to get burned on an import again.

Summary:

The Cubs have Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner under contract/team control for next year.  Given Zambrano's declining skills, Randy Wells inconsistency, and Cashner's unprovenness/injury risk, I think the Cubs need to add one reliable starter next year, and probably two to provide depth.

My preference would be to bring Ryan Dempster back (very likely anyway), and to sign a Roy Oswalt/Chris Carpenter type if their options are declined by their current teams.  I think Sabathia will be too expensive in both year and dollars, while Oswalt and Carpenter could hopefully be had for fewer years, even if the dollars are higher per year.  A 2 years, $15M per year contract for Oswalt/Carpenter would be good if possible.

2012 rotation: Garza, Oswalt or Carpenter, Dempster, Zambrano, Cashner or Wells.  Send the remainder of Wells/Cashner to AAA to wait for the inevitable injury.   This isn't a world beating rotation, but its a step up.  I think it makes sense to keep Z and Dempster for 2012, because their contracts expire after that season, allowing the Cubs access to the elite FA pitching crop available for 2013.

Jim Hendry placed the bar for selling at 10 games out at the end of June, which the Cubs are certain to meet, when will the moves start, and who will be the first to go?

I think Fukudome is moved shortly, before one of his month long swoons begins, he is, as he has been for the Cubs, a useful piece, just not up to his contract.  Many teams could use his OBP and defense to fill in for injured players.  The Braves could use Jason Heyward insurance, or an Eric Hinskie replacement.

Who do you think actually gets moved, and to where?

I am aware that a team is not able to trade their draft pick until they have played a year of professional baseball, is anyone able to better define that date?  Is it some set date, like a year after the previous draft, or is it a year specific to each player?   I would also be curious to know if teams can trade Rule 5 picks midseason, if the team they traded the player to kept them on the major league roster.  Thanks for any help.

The Cubs are hanging around in the NL Central, but I think most would agree that this time will not win the division as currently constituted.  Assuming that you think the Cubs CAN contend this year, who would you target in a trade to improve the team?  I've listed a few players below that I think could augment the team in some key areas; namely offense and starting pitching.

Francisco Liriano - The Twins are out of their division race already, and have shown a willingness to cash in on their ace in the past (Santana to the Mets), so he might be a good choice to bolster the Cubs rotation.  However consideration should be given to whether his recent no-hitter would drive his price too far beyond his value, as he was pretty rough in his earlier starts and was on the verge of being bumped from the rotation.

Erik Bedard - The Mariners are headed no where fast and would surely trade Bedard for some long term assests.  The main question is how many starts the Cubs would get out of him before injury returns.

Brett Myers - The Astros are also not going to contend this year, and Myers is a good trade chip.

Matt Kemp/Andre Either - Obviously both are fine players and the Dodgers would not part with them under normal circumstances, but the financial instability ot their ownership may require some cost cutting.  The Dodgers may not plan to resign both players after they become free agents anyway, as both will command hefty salaries.

C. Beltran - The Mets have shown willingness to eat salary, and would probably be willing to do so with Beltran in exchange for young players , so the price may not be prohibitive.

Where do you think Andrew Cashner should start the year?

My preferred order is:

1. Major League Starter: He has shown he can pitch well as a starter at the minor league level, has shown that he  can pitch out of relief well (see end of 2010) as a major leaguer, I think its time he is given the opportunity to start at the major league level and see if he can handle multiple turns through the lineup.  He also gives the Cubs the highest quality innings as 5th starter, even if he will likely be held to a lower inning limit than a veteran pitcher.  Does anyone know how many innings a 5th starter typically pitches per year?

2.  Major League Long Reliever:  This option allows him to pitch less innings than a starter, but more than a closer/setup man, but getting consistent opportunities would be a problem.  This depends on if Quade believes in using relievers for more than 2 innings.  Again, allowing him to hone his skills against major league hitters is a good opportunity.

3.  Minor League Starter:  I think he has shown enough to be on the major league roster, but I am not entirely opposed to letting him work on his secondary pitches and location in AAA.  I'm meh on this.

4.  Late Inning Major League Reliever: I think Cashner can fill a late inning, high leverage role, but I think that the Cubs should give him every opportunity to be a starter and to be consistent in treating him as a starter.  Jerking him back and forth between starter and reliever like Joba Chamberlain is a bad idea for his development.  I didn't like the experiments with using Jay Jackson and other minor leaguers as relievers for a brief spell, consistency is key to development.

Who are your surprise teams for 2011?  Name one positive and one negative team, and why.

My surprise negative team is the Phillies, while they have a fearsome rotation, there are age and injury questions across the board on offense.  Every infielder not named Ryan Howard have missed significant time, and Jimmy Rollins is showing his age.  Raul Ibanez is also on the downside of his career.  Subtract Jayson Werth and insert an unproven Dominic Brown and there is a better than even chance that the offense trends downward.  The rotation is led by ironman Roy Halladay, but Cliff Lee has had injury concerns, and it was only two seasons ago that Roy Oswalt was slipping to a 4.12 ERA.  I'm not saying that the Phillies are going to slip to a losing record or anything, but any slip could be taken advantage of by the Braves, Marlins or a talented when healthy Mets squad.

My unexpected positive team is the Rays.  I know that they were a playoff team last year, but in a division with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays, and considering the personnel losses this offseason, they are not favored to return to the postseason.  I think the Rays will surprise because of a deep pitching staff that is competitive on a spot for spot basis with any team in the division, and because of the life left in Manny Ramirez's bat.  Even after losing Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena to free agency, the offense is still built on an elite bat in Evan Longoria, and useful parts at most positions.  I believe that Manny will see a resurgence this year due to finally being released from the burden of playing the field, and a chance to stick it to the Red Sox.  A deep farm system able to reload the bullpen will also help, with former top pitching prospect Jake McGee ready to fill in for the departed Rafael Soriano.  The biggest hindrance I see for the Rays is will they be able to add the payroll needed to augment the team at the trade deadline?  The owner has shown flexibility in the past to increase payroll, but they as always in a different strata of spending than the rest of the division.

Now that Hendry has burned some of his trade chips to improve the team for 2011, what does he do next?  Its obvious that this move has rendered one of Silva/Gorzellany expendable, or at least an expensive bullpen piece, do you think Hendry moves one or both of them prior to the season?  I still think he wants to move Fukudome if possible, perhaps as the lower end of the free agent market shakes out, a portion of his contract will look more appealing to some team.  What do you think Hendry will do with the rest of the offseason?

The Cubs are about 6 weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting.  The big offseason issue of who will play 1st has been settled, and the Cubs have added bullpen help.  I don't think Hendry is done, and I still think there are moves to be made that can fit within the Cubs limited budget.  I think the moves fall into two categories at this point: Scrap Heap free agents and trades.

Scrap Heap

Hendry seems to want to add starting pitching and I think there are two good options: Brad Penny and Justin Duchscherer.  Penny was very effective in 2010 until he was injured; he has a 3.23 ERA in 55 IP.  He had a shoulder strain, but has had time to recover, and I think he would be worth a try, signing him to a 1M or less contract and hoping to get 100 innings out of him seems to be a reasonable strategy.  Duchscherer only managed 28 innings,. and had a 2.89 ERA, although a 4.65 xFIP shows he wasn't quite that effective.  Duke has been a highly effective reliever in the past, but he has battled hip injuries.  I think signing him to a league minimum contract would be worthwhile, if he doesn't make the rotation, he can be another solid RH reliever.

If Hendry is interested in adding more relief pitching, he can look to bring back a former Cub that has been surprisingly effective: Kyle Farnsworth.  The hothead has been very effective: a 3.34 ERA in 65 innings last season would be very useful.  Hideki Okajima is also available, he is a lefthanded reliever, a position the Cubs already have a surplus at, but his signing could be used to free up Sean Marshall to start, or to provide insurance against Grabow being a disaster in his second season.  I think the handedness of relievers is overrated in some ways, I'd rather have 6 effective rh relievers than 3 rh/lh each with 4 total being ineffective.

While the Cubs have solved the 1B issue for one season, I am wary of going into 2011 with Jeff Baker or Tyler Colvin being #2 on the depth chart.  Adding  another corner infielder would be good insurance for both Pena (supposedly battled plantar fascia in 2010, an injury that can really hobble someone long term) and Aramis Ramirez.  Troy Glaus is probably no longer viable at 3rd long term, but I think he could be a decent backup.  If we really want to go through retreads Eric Chavez is a name that could be worth signing to a minor league contract.  The A's have cut ties to him, and rightly so because of his back injuries, but he is still young, and for a minimal investment is worth a shot, since the organization is bare at 3rd beyond Aramis and Marquez Smith.

Trades

I still think Hendry has the opportunity to try and make some noise on the trade front.  If he is still pursuing the Chris Davis for Robinson Chironos route, I think that is a good deal, as power off of the bench is a Cubs weakness.

The Mets have been reported to be interested in Tom Gorzelanny, perhaps he could be packaged in a deal with Fukudome to try and get Carlos Beltran.  I think this deal makes some sense from both sides; the Mets need pitching, particularly since Santana is out, and they have also been rumored to be wanting to move Beltran for any kind of relief.  The Cubs have a surplus of 4th and 5th starters, why not try and use Gorzo to move Fukudome?  Fukudome is basically an overpaid backup, but he is at least healthy, so he might have some value to the Mets.  While Beltran has been injured, he at least offers upside, and looked pretty good at the end of 2010.  If he comes to the Cubs and is hurt, no loss, as they just start Colvin in RF instead, which is the plan for now anyway, and if Beltran is healthy, there is a huge boost to the offense.  I think a deal that sees the Cubs get Beltran and any cash required to make the deal salary neutral and the Mets get Fukudome and Gorzo would be reasonable.

Lastly,. I think the Cubs could attempt to pry Brett Anderson from the A's in exchange for some power bats at key positions, namely Aramis Ramirez and Tyler Colvin.  Money would certainly need to be sent with A-Ram, but he would provide the power that they have been unable to attract via free agency.  Perhaps a trade of A-Ram, Colvin and 3M could bring back Anderson and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  I know it seems unlikely that the A's would part with Anderson, but he is an injury risk, and they have pitching to spare.  The A's also have an organizational weakness in position players.  This would certainly be a long shot, but Hendry and Billy Beane have a good trading history.  Ramirez has no long term future with this team, and I consider Colvin to be a very flawed player in that he has very poor OBP skills, and plays a position that he shares with an onerous contract (Soriano).  Ramirez would almost certainly accept a trade that assured him of a 16M payday in 2012, that also doesn't reduce his flexibility to decline the option in case he has a great 2011.

Many here support Jim Hendry, while others are simply resigned to the fact that he has a contract for a few more years and Mr. Ricketts is unlikely to can Hendry with so many years and so much money left.  I count myself among those that feel Jim Hendry isn't the one to build the Cubs team that finally breaks through, but I am also resigned that he isn't going anywhere until at least Fall 2011.  Assuming the Cubs have another season similar to this one in 2011, I think that Ricketts will indeed pull the plug.  Who would you choose to replace him?  I would like to see someone from outside the organization, preferably one who has a history of success with limited resources, as they will most likely still be forced to overcome some of the dead weight contracts from the Hendry era.  He may also have to deal with a lowered payroll caused by reduced tickets sales and debt service.  I would love to see Billy Beane or Andrew Friedman try their hand at running the Cubs organization.  They have shown the ability to draft and develop talent, and they certainly can't do much worse with free agents than Hendry has.  Beane has a contract through 2014, so that would certainly be an obstacle, and I can't find data on Friedman's contract, but I bet that the Rays would fight to keep him.  Who would you like to see run the Cubs if/when Hendry is finished?

As the divisional series comes to a close, it is very apparent that elite pitching makes the difference in the playoffs.  Minnesota and Cincinnati, two teams with potent offenses and good pitching staffs were swept out of their series by teams with elite pitchers.  Roy Halladay's no hitter is the extreme example, but Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, and Tim Lincecum have all powered their teams to a win.  The opposing team has a very slim chance against these elite players, and in the small sample size of a 5 or 7 game series, an elite pitcher gives his team an advantage in up to 3 games.  Other teams in the past have been carried by one or two pitchers, the Diamondbacks were one that come to mind, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson carried that team to a title over a superior Yankees team.

Obviously two great pitchers does not a title team make, a good offense and serviceable 3-5 pitchers are needed to get through the grind of the regular season.  It is also obvious that the Cubs do not have an elite pitcher.  The 2007 and 2008 teams showed this, and the better pitchers on the team are not likely to break through to the next level.  Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano, while good, will never be a Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.  How then do the Cubs acquire this type of player?  As with all players there are three ways: Draft/International Free Agency, Trade, or Free Agency.

Draft

The Cubs haven't shied away from drafting pitchers in the first round, drafting Hayden Simpson in 2010 and Andrew Cashner in 2008.  I hope they have the sense to keep trying Cashner as a starter, he was going well in AAA, there is still time to develop him.  They will have a good chance at a premium college pitcher this season at the number 9 spot.  However the numbers show that early round pitching prospects have a higher bust rate than hitting prospects.  I would rather the Cubs focus on bats early, and then paying high schools overslot in later rounds to amass quality arms and develop them well enough to get some homegrown aces, or at least players good enough to be parlayed into an ace via trade.  It comes down to properly flexing the Cubs financial might in later rounds, recent comments by Mr. Ricketts have hinted at this, we can only hope they follow through.  The Cubs can also lavish money on the international free agent market, as many aces come via that market.

Trade

Obviously a premium pitcher commands top prospects, if they are available at all.  The only premium pitchers that may be available are Zach Greinke (he has expressed doubts that the Royals will be competitive before his contract is up, the Royals haven't expressed any inclination to move him),  and Johan Santana.  Greinke may cost a boatload of prospects, but he is signed to a reasonable contract, and is in his prime.  Moving to the NL would also likely give his stats a boost as well.  I would be more inclined to trade prospects for an ace than for Adrian Gonzalez, whom we can get in free agency a year later.  Johan Santana has endured three season ending surgeries in a row, and is owed a boatload of cash, making him a questionable investment, however with the Mets change in management I think there might be an opportunity.  Maybe the new Mets management really is ready to blow things up, an expensive ace pitcher with injury problems may not be in their plans.  Perhaps the Cubs could roll the dice and move some of their shorter bad contracts for Santana, the long term salary relief being the real attraction for the Mets.  The desirability of this move would hinge on how close the Cubs think they are to contention.  I don't know that I would acquire a 20M+ per year pitcher with a bad wing, but if they could move some of Fukudome, Silva or others, I would consider adding the long term payroll.  Felix Hernandez is one more pitcher who might be moved because his team is too far away to do anything before his contract is up, although I think that is a very long shot.

Free Agency

 The big name this offseason to go to free agency is Cliff Lee.  The Cubs would have to outbid the rest of the big market teams, and I think its unlikely they would win that contest.  The other young aces are signed for a few more seasons, and I think their current teams will make every effort to lock them up long term before they are exposed to free agency.

Obviously the Cubs have many issues, the offense being the biggest among them, but they also lack a knockout ace pitcher as well.  Hopefully they are able to draft/develop some premium pitchers long term, but things look a bit rough on this front for the foreseeable future.

There are many options for the Cubs to fill their void at first base for next season,  Below I will breakdown the candidates and their positives/negatives.

Internal Options:

Tyler Colvin - While Tyler showed substantial power in his rookie year, he didn't provide much else, with a subpar OBP, and a propensity for strikeouts.  I think Colvin is a useful player best suited to the outfield, his bat just isn't good enough to hold down 1st for any length of time.

Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez has been prone to injuries the last few seasons, moving him to 1st might protect him from the wear and tear of the more challenging 3B.  Aramis's fielding has dropped off greatly at 3rd also, so moving him to 1st and adding a better fielder at 3rd would help the team defensively.  Of course moving A-Ram to 1st opens a hole at 3rd, replacing his offensive production from that spot isn't easy.  Adrian Beltre, Jorge Cantu and Ty Wigginton headline the free agent 3B class, and there are options on the trade market as well, but this will cost talent/money.  While moving Ramirez to 1st is an option, I don't think it is the best way for the Cubs to go.

Free Agent Options:

Adam Dunn - The positives and negatives of Mr. Dunn have been discussed throughly in other posts.  My position is that he is fine investment for the right amount of years (2 & a team option) and dollars.

Lance Berkman - The Big Puma had a pretty rough year, both at the plate, and in terms of injuries.  He has stated in the press that he is looking for a full time position, not a platoon role.  I don't think this is realistic, unless he returns to his normal production levels.  If Dunn gets bid out of the Cubs price range, as I expect him to be, Berkman is my next choice.  I think he will be cheap and a good candidate for a bounceback year.  However I think a strong platoonmate needs to be signed as well, preferably someone who can backup A-Ram.  My choice would be Aubrey Huff.

Victor Martinez - Victor will want to be paid as a hitting catcher, not as a middle of the road 1B.  I think combining Soto and Martinez in a Catcher/1B rotation would do wonders to keep them both fresh, and provide injury insurance for Soto.  This is one of my favorite options, but he will likely be priced out of the Cubs range.

Aubrey Huff - A lefty with good production last year, he has also played 3B and OF, which would be useful to backup A-Ram & Soriano.  I imagine we would have to pay him well to get him away from San Francisco.

Jorge Cantu - He can play 1B & 3B, but he offers power and little else.  Probably a good backup option.

Paul Konerko - Very productive, I don't think the White Sox will let him get away, like they did with Thome last offseason.

Adam LaRoche - He is likely relatively cheap, but he is inconsistent in production.

Derrek Lee - I'm not sure he would come back to the Cubs for a salary commensurate with his performance.  In any case his history with the team would make it hard to bench him if he underperforms.  I think the ship has sailed on Lee on the northside.

Carlos Pena - I don't see the Cubs springing for a .200 hitter as a starter.

Xavier Nady - He is a platoon option, and his ability to half-play RF is a positive.

Ty Wigginton - His multiposition eligibility would be nice, but I don't think he has the production to start at 1st.

David Ortiz - He has spent much of his career as a DH, playing 1B only sporadically in interleague play.  He probably isn't an option for an NL team, but someone may decide to try him at 1st, depending on the cost.

Trade Options: 

Adrian Gonzalez - The Padres have acknowledged that they are unlikely to sign him, and will probably ask for quite the package of players/prospects to acquire him.  He is a fantastic hitter, even more so when you consider his homepark.  I think the Cubs would be better served to wait until free agency to sign him instead of moving high level prospects for one season and a chance to resign him.

Prince Fielder - The Brewers also know they are unlikely to resign their Boras client, but will probably demand a premium to trade him within the division.  This is an unlikely solution.

Albert Pujols - I can't imagine a Cubs/Cards trade for this player.

Billy Butler - A productive hitter with seasons left on his contract, he is probably best suited to DH, but has been the Royals starting 1B for several seasons.  He will likely command a good package of players to acquire.

Kila Ka'aihue - Still an unknown quantity, he could be had for less than Butler, but I would be uncomfortable going into a season with Kila as the starter.

Gaby Sanchez - A young hitter, he is being pushed by Logan Morrison on the Marlins roster.  Perhaps the Cubs could acquire him in a package deal with Dan Uggla.

Mike Napoli - He filled in for Kendry Morales pretty well, and his position flexibility at catcher would be nice insurance in case Soto comes in out of shape or has injury problems.

James Loney - The Dodgers are unhappy with his production, I don't see the Cubs acquiring him to be the sole starter, but he could be part of a platoon.  He would likely not cost much.

Mike Lowell - He is considering retirement, but I think he could be worth a league minimum flyer.

Blocked Prospects

Yonder Alonso - Sitting behind MVP candidate Joey Votto, he is unlikely to break into the bigs at 1st.  The Reds would ask for a premium to move him in the division, but he would be worth inquiring about.

Lars Anderson/Anthony Rizzo - These Red Sox prospects have performed well in the minors, but not to the prototypical standards of a power hitting 1B. They are behind Kevin Youkilis on the depth chart, and might be worth trying out.

Matt LaPorta - He hasn't really produced like the prize hitting prospect the Indians thought they were getting in the CC Sabathia trade, but he hasn't been terrible.  A change of scenery might help him out, and he isn't likely to cost premium prospects.

Summary

I don't think the internal options are a good choice, and many of the trade options will be expensive for the return we get.  I think free agency is the way to go this season, particularly as our 1st rounder is protected.

As we begin the offseason, it has been discussed that the only offensive spots that can be improved are 1B and 2B (I won't count RF unless the Cubs are able to move Fukudome).  This is my argument that the Cubs would be well served to acquire Dan Uggla.  Uggla's career line is .263/.349/.488, and his 2010 slash stats were .287/.369/.508.  Uggla turns 31 in March 2011, so he has probably had his career year, but shouldn't be expected to seriously decline for a few more season.  The guy has excellent power for a 2B, and good power for a 3B.  His OBP has been over .360 in two of the past 3 years, so he can be counted on to take a base as needed.  While he is not a strong defensive 2B, he is passable, and would not be step down from the Blake DeWitt/Jeff Baker we can currently pencil in for 2011.  Uggla has the power and plate discipline to be a top 5 second basemen for the next year or two, and after that he can slide over to 3rd to bridge from Aramis Ramirez to Josh Vitters/Junior Lake.

Uggla has one more arbitration year, in which he can be expected to earn about 10M (2011), and after that he will be a free agent.  The Marlins and Uggla are far apart on an extension, at least in the media, with Uggla asking for a 5 year/58M deal.  This comes out to 11.6M per year, for a well above average 2B, who would be a useful 3B.  I think the Cubs could get a deal done for 4 years and an option for the 5th.  If the Cubs fail to sign him to an extension, they can offer him arbitration and collect 2 draft picks to replace any prospects they send away to acquire him.

The Marlins could be expected to ask for prospects and bullpen help back in a deal, as Chris Coghlan has the ability to step in 2B for the fish.  Assuming the Cubs could get a deal done involving prospects in 7-10 range of the org, I think it would be a prudent investment.

Hello, I am a guest from Bleedcubbieblue, with a few questions about Alex Gordon.  I perused the first two pages of fanshots for a recent discussion of Mr. Gordon, but didn't find anything, so I apologize if this has been discussed to death, but I have an interest in Alex and wanted to get the Royals fans' opinions.

1. What is Alex's status with the Royals organization?  Are they still committed to seeing him flourish, and do they see him as a long term solution in LF?  Are the Royals willing to move him?

2. What necessitated the move to the OF?  Is Gordon able to play adequate 3B?  How is he defending in the OF?

3. Has he made progress at the plate?  How do you see his career progressing, will he ever live up to his prospect status?

4.  What type of return would it take for the Royals to move him?  Would the organization prefer a major leaguer, or prospects?

The reason I have an interest in Gordon is because I see him as a potential stopgap solution to the Cubs 3B problem, to bridge the gap from Aramis Ramirez, to hopefully the emergence of Josh Vitters, our own 3B phenom prospect.  Aramis is often hurt, so the Cubs need a viable backup 3B, they haven't had one the past 2 seasons and it has cost them during injuries/slumps.  I assumed he wouldn't cost too much since the Royals have a fine prosepct in Moustakas (spelling?) headed up the pipeline, but I don't really know what the KC organization has in mind for Gordon.  Thanks for any responses!

Does anyone have a link to a comprehensive list of international signings for 2010 for each team?  I've searched through BA, but haven't seen a list of signings, only a preview.  I'm also not clear if the signing period is over, I thought it ran from July to September, but MLBTR seemed to indicate players could sign after the deadline as well.  Any help would be appreciated, thanks.  I'm looking for a Cubs list in particular, but would interested in other teams as well.