Everyone here knows that the Mariners took some big risks with their offense this season.  Everyone also knows that none of their gambles paid off, and even the guys that weren't big risks have pretty much sucked.  But how much?  There's nothing groundbreaking here, but I looked up the stats and preseason projections (CHONE & ZiPS) and compared them for each player on the team.  I was mostly just looking at wOBA, as I was mainly interested in hitting and that seems to be the best stat for comparison.  I also included WAR and triple-slash lines, if you are interested in those.  I averaged the wOBA numbers that CHONE and ZiPS gave me and compared each players actual wOBA to the average of the two predicted numbers.  Now without further ado, YOUR 2010 SEATTLE MARINERS!

 

Catchers:

Adam Moore- .196/.233/.290 .230 wOBA -0.3 WAR

ZiPS .251/.304/.356 .294 wOBA

CHONE .251/.307/.381 .304 wOBA 0.3 WAR

-.069 below average

Surprisingly, out of everyone on the team, Moore has so far been the farthest below his projected wOBA.  There may be several contributing factors- injury, small sample size due to splitting time with Rob Johnson, confidence level.  This is his first season really facing major league pitching, and I think that in the next couple years, he will probably be posting numbers more like this years projections.

 

Rob Johnson- .191/.293/.281 .261 wOBA 0.4 WAR

ZiPS .266/.316/.356 .299 wOBA

CHONE .244/.303/.350 .289 wOBA 0.6 WAR

-.033 below average

Nobody really expected much from Rob Johnson at the plate, maybe league average numbers at catcher.  He wasn't even able to do that.  His wOBA was about 33 points lower than expected.  He also can't catch the ball.  I don't know why the Mariners think this guy is a major league catcher.

 

Josh Bard- .230/.306/.402 .312 wOBA 0.5 WAR

ZiPS .246/.320/.360 .304 wOBA

CHONE .239/.305/.354 .295 wOBA 0.3 WAR

.013 above average

Josh Bard has been the best catcher on the team, both in terms of WAR and in exceeding expectations.  He's one of only two guys on the team that actually did exceed their wOBA predictions.  Small sample size on him, and maybe deservedly so.  I would rather have Adam Moore getting the at-bats.

 

 

Infielders:

Jose Lopez- .241/.272/.333 .267 wOBA 0.3 WAR

ZiPS .275/.308/.430 .322 wOBA

CHONE .283/.316/.449 .331 wOBA 2.6 WAR

-.060 below average

Lopez has been terrible at the plate.  His numbers the past couple years have been a marked improvement over the previous 4.  I think we were all hoping he would keep trending upward, or at least maintain some semblance of the skills he demonstrated in 2008 and 2009.  Instead, he is having the worst year of his career, including his rookie season.  In terms of wOBA projections, he has been the 4th biggest letdown this season at the plate.

 

Casey Kotchman- .224/.292/.357 .283 wOBA -0.5 WAR

ZiPS .271/.341/.406 .333 wOBA

CHONE .265/.333/.401 .325 wOBA 0.9 WAR

-.046 below average

We all knew Kotchman was a risk when the Mariners signed him.  He earned the job over Ryan Garko in Spring Training because of his glove.  Since then, he's lost the job and regained it, sort of.  For a while, it seemed like the Mariners didn't know what to do with this guy.  After the first couple weeks of the season, his bat simply died.

 

Chone Figgins- .247/.333/.289 .295 wOBA 0.1 WAR

ZiPS .280/.373/.362 .339 wOBA

CHONE .272/.370/.358 .334 wOBA 3.2 WAR

-.042 below average

Figgins seemed like a bit more of a sure thing than Kotchman.  He has underperformed almost the same amount at the plate.  I really don't know what to think of Figgins.  Hopefully this season is something of a fluke, and he'll do better next year.  Maybe a return to playing third base, but I really don't see how playing a different position could have that big of an impact on performance at the plate.

 

Russell Branyan- .238/.324/.482 .348 wOBA 1.7 WAR

ZiPS .227/.329/.463 .348 wOBA

CHONE .236/.329/.473 .348 wOBA 0.9 WAR

even

Russell "the Muscle" has been pretty even with his projected numbers so far this season.  This was kind of surprising to me, as it seemed like he has been underperforming.  These stats include his time away from Seattle, so maybe the first part of the season is pulling his numbers up.  I'm not sure how he did before rejoining the Mariners.

 

Jack Wilson- .249/.282/.316 .262 wOBA -0.1 WAR

ZiPS .251/.299/.345 .288 wOBA

CHONE .255/.299/.359 .291 wOBA 1.3 WAR

-0.28 below average

I don't really know what to think of these numbers.  Jack has underperformed, but nowhere near as bad as some of the other guys on the team.  Small sample size here due to injuries.  I really like Jack Wilson, but these numbers are just terrible.

 

Josh Wilson- .249/.303/.318 .285 wOBA 0.7 WAR

ZiPS .234/.296/.337 .285 wOBA

CHONE .232/.293/.344 .284 wOBA 0.2 WAR

even

After getting the starting shortstop position after Jack Wilson's injury, Josh turned out to be one of the better hitters on the team for a while.  That's pathetic.  It wasn't because he was any good, he just managed to be mediocre while everyone around him flat-out sucked.  He has cooled off quite a bit since then and has evened out to exactly what he was projected for.

 

Matt Tuiasosopo- .182/.221/.313 .236 wOBA -0.8 WAR

ZiPS .221/.303/.349 .296 wOBA

CHONE .232/.317/.367 .305 wOBA 0 WAR

-.065 below average

Third biggest disappointment on the team.  He was expected to be a bit above average.  Instead he has been the worst hitter on perhaps the worst hitting team in baseball.  I have to say, I didn't expect much from him, so it wasn't as big of a disappointment to me as the numbers show, but even I expected better than this from someone who can't field.

 

Outfielders:

Ichiro Suzuki- .311/.361/.394 .337 wOBA 3.4 WAR

ZiPS .325/.368/.414 .353 wOBA

CHONE .313/.346/.410 .338 wOBA 2.9 WAR

-.009 below average

Ichiro is slightly below his projected wOBA.  That's okay.  An underperforming Ichiro is still a VERY good ballplayer.  An underperforming Ichiro is still an All-Star.

 

Franklin Gutierrez- .249/.308/.365 .301 wOBA 2.2 WAR

ZiPS .266/.324/..408 .325 wOBA

CHONE .270/.327/.420 .329 wOBA 3.0 WAR

-.026 below average

After starting the season pretty hot, regression to the mean has taken hold of Guti's season at the plate.  He's now currently pretty far below mean, so hopefully he can even it out again.  I don't know if it's just apathy, or if there's something wrong with him, but I have to believe a fresh start next year will hit his reset button and he can return to form.

 

Michael Saunders- .221/.295/.392 .301 wOBA 0.1 WAR

ZiPS .252/.309/.397 .312 wOBA

CHONE .251/.318/.389 .311 wOBA 1.2 WAR

-.011 below average

Saunders has been pretty highly touted by media and here on LL.  He hasn't really done anything too special at the plate, but his wOBA is still one of the highest on the team, tied with Guti for 5th place.  That doesn't mean a whole lot on a team like this, but I guess it's pretty good for someone as young and inexperienced as he is.  He's still got plenty of room to grow.

 

Milton Bradley- .205/.292/.348 .289 wOBA -0.2 WAR

ZiPS .254/.371/.421 .356 wOBA

CHONE .262/.368/.427 .353 wOBA 1.7 WAR

-.066 below average

After Adam Moore, Bradley has seen the biggest drop in wOBA from expected levels.  It's actually quite a bit more disappointing, because Bradley was supposed to lead this offense.  His wOBA is the lowest its been since 2001.  He's missed quite a bit of time on the disabled and restricted lists, so his sample size is a bit smaller.  I really like Bradley, the fans seem to like him, and he seems to love Seattle, but he sure can't hit like he used to.

 

Ryan Langerhans- .190/.352/.321 .317 wOBA 0.5 WAR

ZiPS .224/.324/.369 .313 wOBA

CHONE .229/.323/.375 .311 wOBA 0.5 WAR

.005 above average

Exceeds expectations.  Seriously, this guy has the third highest wOBA on the team, is one of only two people doing better than their prediction numbers, and has shown no reason for doubt about his skills.  And who gets the start in LF when Saunders has the day off?  Tui.  I think we all know Langerhans is better than the Mariners seem to think.

 

 

 

Well there you have it.  If you wanted to rank the players on this team from most disappointing to least disappointing, in terms of wOBA, anyway, it would look something like this:

 

1.) Adam Moore -.069 wOBA

2.) Milton Bradley -.066 wOBA

3.) Matt Tuiasosopo -.065 wOBA

4.) Jose Lopez -.060 wOBA

5.) Casey Kotchman -.046 wOBA

6.) Chone Figgins -.042 wOBA

7.) Rob Johnson -.033 wOBA

8.) Jack Wilson -.028 wOBA

9.) Franklin Gutierrez -.026 wOBA

10.) Michael Saunders -.011 wOBA

11.) Ichiro Suzuki -.009 wOBA

12.) Russell Branyan -------

13.) Josh Wilson -------

14.) Ryan Langerhans +.005 wOBA

15.) Josh Bard +.013

 

In case you were wondering, that's .437 points lower in team wOBA than projected, or about .030 points per player, on average.