SBNation.com User Blog: nerfan

The Thinking Man's Preview To The 2013 Season

nerfan — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 22:00:28 -0000

Much like RuPaul, the Mets head into 2013 in transition. And much like RuPaul's Drag Race, much of 2013's spring has been spent trying to find a man who can plausibly imitate a ~~woman~~ major league outfielder. With little actual drama, and a core of likeable, if mediocre players, 2013 figures to be one of the less entertaining seasons in Mets history, at least until Zack Wheeler comes up and wins his first 22 decisions. Sportswriters have seemed to notice this and articles around the Mets usually revolve around the core concepts of the Wilponzis, the "C" on David Wright's jersey, and the admittedly impressive beard of Justin Turner. However, the start of what many who did not pay attention to the Oakland Athletics or Baltimore Orioles last year believe is a lost season can be made much more exciting through a series of ridiculous prop bets and questions barely tangential to baseball.

With that in mind, I present to you the thinking man's preview to 2013 - where the punchline always involves something about Matt den Dekker striking out a lot.

Catchers

Last year, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas combined to put up an incredible -0.5 fWAR, a fact made even more impressive when you consider Nickeas played the entirety of 2012 using a bat made out of hardened feces. Thole, who used a more conventional Wiffle Ball bat, upped his 2011 National League-leading passed balls total by 2 but still managed to lose out on the 2012 title to Wilin Rosario, who made up for this shortcoming by hitting 28 times as many home runs as Thole. Both catchers, along with Nickeas's Sterling award-winning hair and smile, were shipped to Toronto in the R.A. Dickey deal, and now figure to split time with J.P. Arencibia, whose den Dekker-esque K-rate ensures that we haven't quite seen the last of Thole.

The 2013 options of John Buck, Anthony Recker, Landon Powell, and the 24-year-old, absurdly ancient, one-time hot-shot prospect Travis D'Arnaud probably represent an upgrade over the Thole/Nickeas/Shoppach/Rob Johnson combination that graced the field in 2012 - however, there's reason to doubt that it will be a large upgrade. While Buck has always received solid marks for his defense from commentators, research into pitch framing shows him to be well-below average in that category, and UZR, which doesn't take into account pitch framing, had him as below average every season from 2007-2011 (although positive in 2012). In addition, the man hit .192 last season - yeah, with power and walks, but .192 is .192 and the 12.3% BB rate might be an aberration - he may have been picking up those walks due to getting into deep counts due to being unable to hit baseballs very well (a contact rate of 73.3%, as compared to the league average of 79.7%). That 12.3% BB also represents by far his career high. Either way, Buck's projected for a wOBA around .300, which doesn't sound good until you realize that Thole's wOBA was .257 last year. While it might be unreasonable to expect a large overall upgrade from the catching position at least until D'Arnaud gets called up, Buck does obviously have more power than Thole and probably won't have a .235 BABIP again, meaning his batting average will probably hop back over the Mendoza line. And for those who might regard that as a minor accomplishment, I will remind you that Nickeas and his feces bat hit .174/.242/.229 in 122 plate appearances last year.

On to the backups - Anthony Recker might yet be competent, and his strong minor league lines will have some clamoring for him to receive increased playing time, but his gaudy minor league numbers were in the context of the offense-happy Pacific Coast League (although Sacramento itself plays as a relatively neutral ballpark), and D'Arnaud likely won't be up until June so the Mets can avoid giving him an extra year of arbitration - and even when he comes up, scouts are divided on whether he can be an impact bat right away. Oh, and by the way, for those of you who for some reason want to cast doom and gloom over D'Arnaud? John Buck was at one point the 21st ranked prospect in the game by John Sickels, and while he's had a substantial major league career, most fans are probably looking for something more out of D'Arnaud.

Overall, the Mets position in regards to catching looks to be better than it did in 2012, with the potential for it to be much better if and when D'Arnaud arrives and/or if Buck can exceed the low expectations placed on him as someone who is essentially a warm body wearing the tools of ignorance. Again, stressing the fact that due to the reptilian nature of Josh Thole, the Mets actually had a cold body there for the majority of the last four years.

Questions for thought: When John Buck hits a home run, it's a "Buck Shot." When Anthony Recker hits one, he "Recked" it. Landon Powell could have either "Moon Landon," which sounds cool but doesn't actually mean anything, or "Powell," which is a caricatured Asian man saying the word "power." What is it when Travis D'Arnaud pulls a home run (as opposed, of course, to the Oppo Taco)? A rake fajita? A pulled pork sandwich? A turbo mojito? Suggestions welcome. Who hits more home runs this year, John Buck or Travis D'Arnaud? Who hits more, Buck and D'Arnaud or Arencibia and Thole? John Buck's got a reputation for being good with pitchers - do you think he could fix Victor Zambrano in 15 minutes? How about an hour? Do you think the Mets will trade Buck midseason? What sort of prospect could Buck conceivably be worth? Bill Dickey was a Hall of Fame catcher with a solid last name for the Yankees from 1928-1946. He died in 1993. What are the odds that zombie Bill Dickey would out-hit Mike Nickeas? What are the odds that Matt Harvey would outhit Nickeas? Remember when during the Dickey trade, we were all scared that the player going to Toronto we hadn't yet heard about in the deal would be someone like Wilmer Flores, and it turned out to be Mike Nickeas? Remember how happy you were? Remember the glorious smile that washed over your face, and remember the sighing chuckle of relief your body produced? Remember what it's like to be that happy, and go forth and watch the Mets season like that. Remember that we no longer have Mike Nickeas on our major league baseball team.

First Basemen

Ike Davis turned 26 years old on March 22. At age 26, one-time Shane Spencer Kevin Maas hit .220 with 23 home runs for the 1991 Yankees. How is this related? Well, the Mets are hoping that unlike Maas, Davis will be able to make consistent contact with fastballs, breaking balls, and changeups. Trends seem to indicate that he will. Ike's .246 BABIP was a .246 BABIP and should thus improve at least a little - even with his relatively infield-fly prone batted ball tendencies (11.8%) - due to a decent line-drive rate (21.1%). A combination of the ZIPS, Steamer, and Oliver projections have him hitting closer to .255 this year with similar power, and none of those projections know that over the first two months of the season, the real Ike was replaced by Billy Crystal in an incredibly well-made Ike Davis suit. While Crystal acquitted himself decently for a 65-year-old comedian, he did not perform as well as a major league baseball player is expected to. After the real Ike replaced Crystal sometime in early June, he smacked 27 homers and hit .256, leading some to believe that the projections are a bit bearish on the home runs and that Ike will have himself the breakout season everyone was thinking he would in 2011. With the ankle healed, the Kool-Aid drinkers have a reason to believe that the Valley Fever, which threatened to become Sally Fever (a crippling disease in which the sufferer experiences nausea, intense headaches, and a demotion to the South Atlantic League) in 2012, will become Rally Fever in 2013. Ike's backup this season will probably be Justin Turner, who we will discuss in the section on "second basemen."

Also, on a possibly-related-but-more-likely-just-the-same-last-name note, our Ike is actually the 2nd Ike Davis to play in the major leagues. The first received sporadic playing time with the 1919 Washington Senators and 1924 White Sox, but played a full season with the 1925 edition of the South Siders. The results were somewhat less than Ruthian, or even 21st century Ike Davis-ian, as the shortstop hit .240 with 0 home runs in 680 plate appearances, and was caught stealing 14 times against only 19 stolen bases. Unsurprisingly, bad Ike Davis and his 74 wRC+ never played another major league game.

Questions for thought: Would it really surprise you if Ike Davis hits 35 home runs this year? 40? 45? At what point do you think the number of home runs he hits turns from plausible to implausible? What about batting average? Will Ike ever hit as well as he did in 2011 before the ankle injury? Ike has never experienced a winning season in the major leagues. Is he then a LOSE METHOD player? Say Ike has a big season this year and Wilmer Flores lights up AAA and looks ready for the major leagues as a first baseman. Do you dangle Ike? Who do you figure will have a bigger season, Ike Davis or Freddie Freeman? According to recent reports from Andy Martino, the Mets intend to create a super-entity known as Ike David by combining the bat of David Wright, the glove of David Wright, the arm of David Wright, the speed of David Wright, the leadership of David Wright, the umpire-management skills of David Wright, the plate discipline of David Wright, the smile of David Wright, and the power of Ike Davis. If you could, would you fuse Ike's raw power on to David Wright, if it meant losing Ike Davis? Assume the Mets would then shift Lucas Duda to 1B and play some combo of Valdespin and Kirk in left. In 1952, Dwight Eisenhower won the presidency for the first time with the slogan "I Like Ike." What many people do not know is that president Ike was actually born David Dwight Eisenhower. Could the infamous Ike David plan actually refer to a secret plot launched by the Eisenhower administration in the 1950s that is just now coming to fruition? Answer: no.

"Second Basemen"

The great paradox of the 2013 New York Mets - not only do they have three second basemen on the Opening Day roster in Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, and Jordany Valdespin, they also have no second basemen on the Opening Day roster, because none of those players can actually play second base (Ronny Cedeno was pretty decent there in 2012). While Turner certainly doesn't look as clunky as Murphy on the field, defensive metrics have him pegged as consistently terrible, which is a shame because his bat isn't actually nearly as bad as some people believe. Then you've got Valdespin, whose power potential, speed, and athleticism give him a shot at being an above-average major league regular, but whose bat, defense, plate discipline, maturity, and ability to produce offspring are all in question. So, while the three of them could not play the game more differently and each bring a different offensive skillset to the table, the three have the same problem of being probably pretty good at hitting for a second baseman but probably pretty bad at fielding for a second baseman.

Murphy got the bulk of the playing time in 2012 at the keystone, setting a new Mets franchise record for doubles from a second baseman with 40. The rest of his offensive game took a step backwards from 2011, however, as he struck out more and hit for less home run power. More importantly, his UZR went from a shockingly above-average 3.8 in 2011 to a reassuringly abysmal -10.9 in 2012. At 28, the Irish Hammer is probably done improving tools-wise, so the best we can hope for is a high batting average combined with acceptable power along with 2011-tier defense. So yeah, hoping for 2011. Had he not gone down with the MCL injury that year, he'd have been pushing 4.5 fWAR assuming the same level production over the last two months of the season. That would be nice.

Justin Turner - now here's a guy who is essentially Daniel Murphy-lite. Unfortunately for his role as a bench player, he doesn't exhibit a platoon split and thus doesn't serve well as a righty off the bench. He is also not a credible shortstop or second baseman. Hopefully, the Mets wisen up and promote Zach Lutz or Josh Satin to be a reserve instead of Turner at some point, but hey, it's not like he's going to kill the team with his slightly below-average bat off the bench. If Turner's getting more than 200 PAs, it's probably not because Terry Collins is using him incorrectly, it's probably because multiple Mets have fallen apart and Terry Collins is forced to play him. Last season, Turner accrued 0.2 WAR in 185 PA. While that's obviously unacceptable, most projections think he'll improve his walk rate and be ever so slightly more valuable than that.

Now on to Valdespin. The now-25-year-old Dominican from San Pedro de Macoris provided several key pinch-hits in 2012, setting a new Mets franchise record for pinch-hit home runs, but overall provided replacement-level production, mostly thanks to a .282 OBP. His plate discipline has supposedly improved since then, and he looked like a different hitter in Spring Training, showing off both pop and the ability to take a pitch. While most people expect Valdespin to get the majority of his playing time in the outfield, the position is fairly new to him. In the minors, he played mostly 2B and SS, and was better at 2B due to a mediocre throwing arm. While mistake-prone, he has all the athleticism to play 2B and grades out well because of good quickness, and could be league-average in time. In the OF, his weak arm will continue to be an issue but, again, speed and athleticism could make him an above-average left fielder or an okay center fielder. Jordany will probably amass near-regular playing time near the end of the season, becoming a Wilpon's (a broke man's! get it?!) Ben Zobrist.

Questions for thought: Who gets more PAs in 2013 - Justin Turner or Jordany Valdespin? Who causes more clubhouse incidents? Say Justin Turner hits a walk-off home run. Who pies Justin Turner? Does Justin Turner pie himself? Collin Cowgill? How depressing would it be to pie yourself? Over/under on Daniel Murphy home runs? 6? 8? Imagine the following scene: Jordany Valdespin walking through the clubhouse blasting Pitbull, wearing a t-shirt and cap that both read "Jordany Valdeswag," and screaming "know your place, rook?" at David Wright. Is that scene implausible? Which is more likely - that Valdespin hits 30 homers, or that scene taking place? Daniel Murphy once claimed that he "bat third," and according to some lineup optimizations, Murphy hitting third with Wright hitting second would be a superior option. Am I the only one who, despite what the numbers might say, feel weird with that lineup arrangement? Must 2nd basemen hit 2nd? Daniel Murphy currently has 467 hits in a Mets uniform. Do you think he gets another 467? How about Valdespin - 467 hits for Jordany Valdespin in a Mets uniform? What are the odds on that? Last season, Brad Emaus hit .212/.297/.315 for Buffalo. Gosh, remember when he was the Opening Day second baseman for the Mets? Also, speaking of hitting second, in 2011 Willie Harris was the opening day left fielder and he hit second. Willie Harris!

Shortstop

I remember Ruben Tejada hitting a home run in Spring Training 2012 and thinking - man, this guy could really hit 5 or 10 dingers this year and it wouldn't surprise me. Of course, he hit just a single homer, and that didn't surprise me, either. This Spring Training, he hit a home run off Stephen Strasburg, and here I am again thinking that Ruben could go and hit 5-10. I really hope he does, because his power's really the only tool that he can plausibly improve - except maybe plate discipline. A 4-point drop in BB% from 2011 to 2012 was more a result of moving from hitting in front of the pitcher to hitting in front of David Wright, and with a move back to the 8-hole in 2013, the mark should once again trend towards 8-9%. Overall, Ruben's offensive production should probably be better in 2013 than in 2012, because young players with 30.0% line drive rates tend to improve offensively.

I mean, the guy's practically a baby. He's younger than each of the following players: Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Robert Carson, Juan Lagares, Cory Vaughn, and Cory Mazzoni. He is only 2 years older than Cory in the House. He is a month-and-a-half older than his doppelganger Taylor Swift. As he gets stronger, his intelligence and solid tools should enable him to remain on shortstop while adding some crucial extra-base pop.

The Mets have decided to leave Omar Quintanilla off the 25-man-roster and to back Tejada up with Justin Turner, a move so incredibly goofy that it makes The Room seem like The Godfather. While that may be hyperbole, consider the fact that unlike in movies, the principle of so-bad-it's-good does not apply to baseball. Turner is an unmitigated disaster at short and hopefully Tejada stays healthy and plays a full season, as a quad injury prevented him from doing so in 2012. A healthy, productive Tejada, while a far cry from a healthy, productive Jose Reyes, should be just the kind of slightly-above-league-average player that the Mets would win more games with if they had more of them,

Questions for thought: Ruben Tejada is Panamanian. Which player would you rather have on the Mets in 2013 - Ruben Tejada or Mariano Rivera? Assume in this scenario that Tejada would return to Mets control in 2014, no matter which option you choose. Can you believe that at some point, Alex Cora and Luis Castillo took major league playing time away from Ruben? Ruben's had a tepid spring training, with only 4 hits in 50 at-bats. The good news? His BABIP this spring has been .073 and his approach at the plate looks fine. He'll be fine. Is Ruben Tejada the most boring 23-year-old shortstop with a 30% line-drive rate that history has ever produced? Perhaps he suffers from being in the shadow of Jose Reyes, but, even though I like Tejada, he's just - boring. He is no fun to watch. If he hit more home runs off of Stephen Strasburg, he would be more fun to watch. Who would win in an all-out cage match, two Ruben Tejadas or one Albert Pujols? Who would win in an all-out John Cage match? Who plays a better shortstop, Justin Turner or Justin Timberlake? Could Timberlake live up to his claim of being the "20/20 Experience" and hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in the major leagues? If not, how about Joey Fatone?

Third Base

There are a couple of things that I am very thankful for in regards to David Wright. The first is that in 2012, David Wright was a very good hitter. The second is that, in 2012, David Wright was a very good fielder. The third is that David Wright remained healthy while he was a very good hitter and very good fielder. These three things had not acted in concert with each other since 2008, and Wright's return to being one of the top 10 players in baseball was frankly just a little bit shocking. Justly, the newly anointed captain received a deal that will keep him in a Met uniform until 2020, by which point either the Mets will sniff contention once or an alien race will have obliterated the Earth and harvested all human beings in a desperate search for biomass. Then, failing the latter, David Wright will be a part of a meaningful Mets team. This is another thing I am very thankful for. The man deserves to be part of at least a race for the god damned second wild card.

The things that worry me are that Wright is now 30 years old, his UZR last year felt a little flukey, and that his HR power is significantly down from its peak in 2007 and 2008. The thing that does not worry me is the fact that great players age well. David Wright is a great player.

Questions for thought: When David was struggling offensively, his main problem seemed to be swinging strikes. Wright's swinging strike rate in 2012 was his lowest since 2008. Going forward, do you expect to see a higher-average, less-power David Wright? Will David Wright age like Derek Jeter - meaning a graceful, slow decline marked by an increased focus on singles hitting and playing bad defense - or will he age like George Brett - meaning an increased focus on home run hitting, playing first base, and getting injured? Say you're starting a team from scratch. Do you pick Derek Jeter or George Brett? Who would you rather have on your team, David Wright or Joe Mauer? How great is it that in this questions for thought section, I'm talking about Derek Jeter, George Brett, and Joe Mauer instead of Alex Cora and Brad Emaus?

The Outfield

By now, you've heard everything there is to hear about just how bad the Mets outfield is. Therefore, this preview will be a little bit different. Instead of a 2012 recap, vague platitudes on how the position could be better in 2013, and tryhard jokes in the form of questions, I present you with betting odds on which Mets outfielder will be best in the upcoming season.

Collin Cowgill (2-1): Speed, amazingly alliterative name, plate discipline all pluses. Terry Collins seems to like him, ensuring playing time. Bigger plus. He hits righty and throws lefty, like Rickey Henderson. Maybe not a plus, but at least neat. Minus? The dude self-describes as a "grinder," leaving himself wide-open to the attack of a resuscitated Fire Joe Morgan. Still, Cowgill's the only one of the three starting outfielders on the Mets who lacks a CC Sabathia-sized hole in his game, and thus provides a decent bet to give the Mets decent production.

Jordany Valdespin (4-1): Valdespin's Twitter contains a Spanish phrase - "Lo mas hermoso es ser humilde apesar de tenerlo todo en la vida" - that translates to "The most beautiful thing is to be humble in spite of having everything in life." Unfortunately for Jordany, "everything" includes "guaranteed major league playing time." This would explain why his humility grades out as a 25.

Lucas Duda (4-1): Players, by fWAR, worth more than Lucas Duda in 2012: Jason Bay, Jeff Francouer, Chone Figgins, Delmon Young, Xavier Nady, Omar Vizquel, Mike Nickeas, Satchel Paige, and Terry Collins. Players more irrationally loved by Eno Sarris: none of them.

Mike Baxter (5-1): Terry Collins realizes that Marlon Byrd is terrible and instead turns to Mike Baxter, who, having run out of no-hitters to save, puts up completely league-average numbers and surprises everyone who didn't realize that Baxter's numbers throughout his career have indicated the potential to put up league-average numbers.

Marlon Byrd (7-1): After running out of cool names in my copy of Pokemon Yellow, I was forced to bestow the nickname "Byrd" on my Spearow. That Spearow eventually evolved into a Fearow and became one of my most valuable Pokemon, even taking out Gary's Venusaur. In conclusion, Marlon Byrd is a 35-year-old who put up a .216 wOBA while juicing last year, and also has probably never been a Fearow capable of defeating Gary's Venusaur. He might play acceptable defense, though.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (9-1): Come on, does anyone seriously believe that Kirk Nieuwenhuis will be the best outfielder on the Mets in 2013? Even Kirk's mom is a den Dekker fan.

Matt den Dekker: (12-1): In a moment of hilarious self-deprecation, den Dekker legally changes his name to den Dekkker because he strikes out so much. This name change is embraced by misguided hate groups, who soon flock to Citi Field. The Wilpons welcome this new development with open arms and force Terry Collins to hit den Dekkker leadoff every game, upon which he shows just enough power and speed to be a viable major leaguer.

Juan Lagares (85-1): At this point, would you really be surprised if Lagares is a more valuable contributor to the 2013 Mets than Nieuwenhuis? The grass is always greener in Binghamton, I suppose, but this is still a solid bet and if these odds were more than a complete fabrication I might place a couple bucks down on this one, and advise you all to do the same.

AJ Pollock (150-1): In this scenario, the Mets satisfy Kevin Towers' insatiable lust for shortstops by trading Wilfredo Tovar for Diamondbacks outfielder AJ Pollock, and he produces okay, and he is the best outfielder on the Mets.

Bobby Bonilla (260-1): Bonilla is suddenly struck with the urge to play baseball again, and after the Mets sign him to a minor league contract, he gets called up during an interleague series with the Yankees. Bonilla hits 5 homers in 2 games and claims "I'll show you, the Bronx!" and after that plays like you'd expect Bobby Bonilla to play. Despite a mediocre three months after the glorious Yankees series, he still qualifies as the best Mets outfielder.

Omir Santos (300-1): Why not Omir Santos? Dude had lightning bolts coming out of his body. Portends big-time power.

Barry Bonds (350-1): Sandy Alderson: Hey, DePo, isn't it crazy that we're starting a washed-up PED user in right field? Paul DePodesta: It doesn't matter that he's a washed-up PED user, it matters that he's Marlon Byrd. If he was Barry Bonds, we'd be having a different conversation. Both laugh.

Suddenly, their eyes meet and they realize. They sign Barry Bonds. Bonds walks 243 times and leads the Mets to the NL East title.

Starting Pitching

The Mets head into 2013 having lost no one of any great import from their 2012 rotation, with only a gimmick pitcher departing to Toronto for prospects not even close to Mike Olt in value and a washed-up soft-tossing lefty suffering some sort of injury or something. Wait - no! I forgot! The Mets no longer employ Chris Young or Miguel Batista and are replacing those goons with Shaun Marcum and Zack Wheeler! There's a literal mountain of production gone! Seriously, full seasons from Harvey and Gee will help replace Dickey's production and Marcum, assuming health, should be better than Chris Young. Niese will be Niese, and overall the rotation probably figures to produce a similar amount of value in 2013 as it did in 2012.

Shaun Marcum hasn't exactly created excitement among the Mets fanbase, and it's not hard to see why, as he's basically a short, somewhat less injury-prone version of Chris Young. Unlike Young, however, Marcum is a legitimate #3 when healthy, putting up at least 3 WAR in his last two full seasons. Also unlike Young, Marcum's secondary stuff is legitimately strong, especially a lefty-killing sinking changeup. At the very least, Marcum should be more interesting to watch than Young, and far less painful to watch than Miguel Batista.

Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, Shaun Marcum, and Dillon Gee are perhaps the most-underrated front four in major league baseball, and with Zack Wheeler waiting in AAA Las Vegas, the Mets have the makings of a young, cheap rotation with considerable upside. By 2014, the Mets starting staff, which hasn't been young and talented since the mid-1980s, could have undergone a radical transformation to just that. And while the present doesn't look quite as promising as the future, with Jeremy Hefner set to occupy the fifth starter role, just remember we could always be the Minnesota Twins, who are currently rolling out the devastating 1-2 punch of Vance Worley and Mike Pelfrey and following that up with the dazzling Kevin Correia.

Dillon Gee's beard also underwent a radical transformation, from borderline Satanic to quite classy. Whether this will have any impact on his xFIP is unknown, but some contacts have told me that the previous beard weighed 6 pounds and caused his head to drag sharply downwards on every pitch. With the beard gone, one scout says, Gee could easily win 15 games.

Questions for thought: Who has a better season in 2013 - Jon Niese or Matt Harvey? How about 2014? In 2014, who has a better season - Niese, Harvey, or Zack Wheeler? Is Dillon Gee still a member of the Mets rotation in 2015? Don't you realize that the constant "nothing but a Gee thang" puns are just as bad as "more Cowgill?" Okay. I take that back. They're not as bad. Do you think the Mets have a top-8 starting rotation in the NL this year? How about next year? While Dillon Gee's name always comes up in reference to that one Dre song, I think more immediately of the Crows song that got covered on The Beach Boys' Smile. Also, that one Girls' Generation track. Do you think Dillon Gee has what it takes to become a K-pop star? How about Rafael Montero? What are the odds that Montero is a September call-up this year? 20%? 30%? Which out-of-nowhere scrub starts a game for the 2013 Mets? It probably won't be Jose Lima or Geremi Gonzalez. Could we see a Dave Williams redux? Is Jorge Sosa still in baseball? How about Brad Penny? As a side bonus, Penny could drag along Alyssa Milano or Eliza Dushku or whoever he's dating now to serve as the new BABIP fairy.

The Bullpen

While the rotation will look different in 2013, the bullpen will look even more different. Gone are Jon Rauch, Ramon and Elvin Ramirez, Manny Acosta, Miguel Batista, and, until further notice, Frank Francisco. In accordance with the whitewashing policies of the Alderson regime, the Mets have brought in mostly white guys to fill in - Scott Atchison, who didn't land a solid major league job until 34, Scott Rice, who at 31 will finally appear in his first major league game, and sidearming Greg Burke, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009. Then you've got LaTroy Hawkins, who has been a good middle reliever for the past 13 seasons, and you've got Brandon Lyon, who carries the #provencloser tag. After getting stung by rich/multi-year deals to relievers, Sandy Alderson has wisely chosen to cobble his bullpen together from total dreck. Atchison, Burke, Lyon, and Hawkins should form an extremely cheap, reasonably productive pen, and if a couple of them don't quite perform up to expectations, then they're at the very least not appreciably worse than the core combo of Franky Frank, Rauch, and Ramon Ramirez were in 2012. Meanwhile, Scott Rice has looked like an extremely effective LOOGY in Spring Training, and he's limited lefties to a .183 batting average over the past 3 seasons. The 2013 additions to bullpen won't be spectacular - it's too old, and too unproven - but if there's any justice in this world one of these pitchers will be decent and we can deal him for a C+ prospect at the deadline.

And then you've got the holdovers - Josh Edgin, Jeurys Familia, and Bobby Parnell. Edgin's already a good LOOGY, with a mid-90s fastball and hard slider, but his ability to become more than that hinges on his changeup - even a mediocre changeup would go a long way and help establish him as a more reliable set-up option. Familia's proclivity to walking batters means that as of right now, he's not an incredibly attractive option, but his moving fastball alone will generate the requisite strikeouts. Should Familia pitch well in the first month of the season, I would expect him to be up in the major leagues for good as the Mets have already committed to using him as a reliever going forward. I still think that Familia could benefit from additional seasoning in the minors - a strong second pitch isn't just vital for a starter, it's vital for an impact reliever, which Familia certainly has the talent to be.

Parnell, on the other hand, is the first impact reliever the Mets have developed (and stuck with, Heath Bell and Joe Smith don't count) since - well - Aaron Heilman. Thanks to a knuckle curve he learned from Jason Isringhausen, Parnell now has three plus pitches, one of which (the four-seam fastball) travels over 100 MPH and the other two of which (the two-seam and the aforementioned knucklecurve) are arguably harder to hit. While the knock on Parnell is that he doesn't have the true closer mentality, one might note that Parnell actually had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk and home-run rate in save situations. While it might actually be in the Mets best interest to deviate from baseball convention and use their best relief pitcher in the most impact situations (in other words: not when you're up three runs in the 9th inning), I fully expect Parnell to go out and dominate in the closer role in 2012, never relinquishing the role to Franky Frank.

Questions for thought: Does Frank Francisco ever save another game for the Mets? Who finishes 2013 with more saves, Francisco or Jeurys Familia? Which current Mets starter profiles best in the bullpen? Which Mets pitching prospects do you think eventually wind up in the bullpen? Bonus points if you say Fulmer or Syndergaard then explain why. Do you think it's ever justified to draft a college reliever in the first 3 rounds? Is the skillset of a reliever markedly different than that of a starting pitcher? Is the only difference that a starter has to throw one more good pitch than a reliever? The Mets have had a terrible bullpen since 2006. Why? Have the Mets just been unlucky? Bad relivers? Bad results? Bad usage? Even Guillermo Mota was effective for 4 years after melting down twice a week in 2007. The Mets have had a collective -10.37 WPA from 2007 to 2012, by far the worst in baseball, and 5 wins worse than the "second-place" Mariners. At some point, our crappy waiver-wire adds and minor league free agents have to be as good as their crappy waiver-wire adds and minor league free agents, right? Anyway, relievers hitting. Who could forget Dae-Sung Koo's double off Randy Johnson in 2005? Do you remember that he also scored from 2nd on a bunt on that play, essentially beating Jorge Posada in a footrace? Which current Mets reliever is the best hitter? Could any of them strike out less often than Matt den Dekker? If you type "Robert Carson" into the search bar in Wikipedia, you are presented with Robert Carson the numismatist. He was a leading expert on Roman coins, and was employed as Keeper of Coins and Medals at the British Museum from 1978 to 1983. When you languish in obscurity behind Robert Carson the numismatist, who was a leading expert on Roman coins, and who was notably employed as Keeper of Coins and Medals at the British Museum from 1978 to 1983, you might want to make the effort to learn a decent second pitch and become an established major league baseball player.

With that in mind, I present to you the thinking man's preview to 2013 - where the punchline always involves something about Matt den Dekker striking out a lot.

Catchers

First Basemen

"Second Basemen"

Shortstop

Third Base

The Outfield

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (9-1): Come on, does anyone seriously believe that Kirk Nieuwenhuis will be the best outfielder on the Mets in 2013? Even Kirk's mom is a den Dekker fan.

Omir Santos (300-1): Why not Omir Santos? Dude had lightning bolts coming out of his body. Portends big-time power.

Suddenly, their eyes meet and they realize. They sign Barry Bonds. Bonds walks 243 times and leads the Mets to the NL East title.

Starting Pitching

The Bullpen

The Meaning of David Wright

nerfan — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 23:12:19 -0000

Baseball wasn't born in me. My parents (not baseball fans) tried, rather unsuccessfully, to enroll me in youth training camps when I was in kindergarten and first grade. I liked the sport less than soccer, which is to say, I would rather poke my eyeballs out with scissors than play baseball. Nah, I liked reading. I'd devoured the entire output of Roald Dahl by 7. Math wasn't bad either. And if I absolutely had to put my body in motion, I guess I liked running. That way, that asshole kid Cole couldn't yell at you for not paying attention during the game. I attended my first baseball game in 2002. I don't know how, but my identity as a Mets fan had already been established at this point. Maybe it was because my best friend growing up was a quasi-Mets fan. More likely, it was because the Yankees were overpaid assholes and Cole was a Yankees fan. At the game, Mo Vaughn hit a home run - or was it two? - and thus I became the only Mets fan ever to like Mo Vaughn. Anyway, by 2004, despite my allegiance to the Mets, I evidently still knew nothing about baseball, because after that famous Red Sox comeback I believed that they had defeated the Yankees in the World Series. I also wasn't very satisfied in life. Reading was great - and I loved Roller Coaster Tycoon 2, too - but there wasn't anything I had real passion and drive for.

In 2005, a funny thing happened. I started reading the sports section of the New York Times - I swear to God - because the weather section was on the back and I needed something else to turn to (no pun intended). It was May, and the coverage for baseball far exceeded any other sport. Soon, I started following the Mets. Being, well - geeky as anything, the tables of numbers consumed me before I had any real relationship with the players. The batting averages of the Mets were displayed - Woodward, Floyd, Cairo, Reyes, Beltran. And Mike Piazza, the only name I'd recognized before reading the sports pages. I grew to know the identities of these players. Cliff Floyd hit homers. Jose Reyes stole bases. Carlos Beltran underperformed a bit. Soon, I started watching games and really following the identities of the players. Reyes was young and already being crowned one of the most exciting players in baseball. Cliff Floyd was a veteran having a pretty good season. Mike Piazza was on the downswing of his career. Chris Woodward was a "scrappy utility guy." I also learned Mo Vaughn was an injury-prone sack of lard who had played in a sum total of 8 Mets games. This didn't disappoint me too much. I was too busy focused on all the youth and excitement on the team.

Of course, David Wright was my favorite. How could he not be? He was young - just like me! He was new to the Mets - just like me! And most importantly, he was amazing - unlike me! Such a good two-strike hitter, Keith used to say about him. I loved David so much I'd often be doing my homework with the radio on in the background until David came up, then I'd run to the TV and turn it on to watch him hit. And even when he struck out, I was rarely disappointed. The way he swung the bat looked so easy - he never looked like anything got him down. More than anything, this was the quality I admired about David Wright.

My least favorite was Doug Mientcewicz. I fucking hated Doug Mientcewicz. People used to talk about his defensive value, but all I saw was a guy who couldn't drive in a run to save his life.

2005 was a good time to start being a Mets fan. I never experienced the dreck of the early 2000s, instead being treated to a team with a hell of a lot of potential. Besides Wright and Reyes, there was Victor Diaz, who was young and had a great swing, there was Jae Weong Seo, who somehow managed to go 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA and who I also loved. Aaron Heilman seemed to pitch in every game. Over the last month of the season, Mike Jacobs put up video game numbers. Besides Wright and Reyes, all of these players now suck/are out of baseball/suck and are out of baseball. That didn't matter - it doesn't matter. They gave me hope. In 2005, when the Mets went 83-79, and then in 2006, when they traded Jacobs for Carlos Delgado, they looked to be amazing.

One of the best things about being a baseball fan - I think, being a sports fan of any kind - is the spontaneous generation of hope. What else can really do that? Certainly not reading books, and definitely not math problems. Those Mets - Heilman, and Seo, and Diaz, and Wright - they all gave me hope. Wright gave me the most. In the spring of 2006, I signed up for my first season of Little League. I basically had two strikes against me right off the bat. First, I had never really played baseball before, besides extremely occasional sessions of catch with my brother and dad. Second, my hand-eye coordination was beyond abysmal. These days, I would laugh off my .100 batting average or dismiss it entirely. After all, I was young for the league! But back then, it stung. I never harbored any real aspirations of being a major league baseball player. But there was this great hope - that I, like David Wright, despite the two strikes against me, would somehow come back and make it an at-bat. That season, I didn't really.

But I guess I did. After that season, I played 5 more, throughout high school. Slowly, I developed into a decent player. My lack of hand-eye coordination was mitigated by choking up on the bat and foot speed. I started to throw pretty hard, and eventually I became a pitcher. Was I ever great? Nah - I weighed 135 pounds at 6' 1'' and couldn't field a fly to save my life. But I have Wright (and Keith, I guess, for pointing out David was such a great hitter with two strikes) to thank for the perseverance. There's a certain drive that you can only get from looking up to people like that.

And I grew as a baseball fan, too. For Christmas in 2005, I received the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, which was to utterly consume me for years. As a kid who liked numbers, and as a kid who liked collecting things, I got into sabermetrics and baseball cards. I accrued 1,500 posts on a baseball forum, and 1,300 on another. I followed countless baseball blogs. I refreshed Fire Joe Morgan every two hours. My life revolved around Mets games. When I went to camp, I'd spurn socializing with other kids so I could listen to the Mets on the radio alone. I got my first girlfriend (a Mets fan!), took her to Mets games, and then she broke up with me during an hour-long rant about Mike Pelfrey's inconsistency. Seriously, that's exactly what happened. I got broken up with because ranting about Mike Pelfrey was more important than talking about relationship problems.

Anyway, 2006 was great, because the Mets were great, and then 2007 and 2008 were less great because the Mets were less great. David seemed to go on weird streaks at times - in 2006, his power evaporated completely in the second half, and then in 2008, while I was eating at a Japanese restaurant with my extended family, he struck out with a runner on third against Bobby Howry. That was the beginning of the end. Wright looked - well, he looked defeated. Then 2009 came, and the Mets were awful, and David Wright wasn't as good, and 2010 came, and he was okay, but the Mets were bad, and then came 2011, and he wasn't good and the Mets weren't good and I really had to take a look at myself. And as the Mets went, so I went. I spent hours in my room alone, complaining about everything I could. I got back into books - the existentialists were my favorite. Kafka on the Shore. Anything with a good sex scene.

I had stopped posting on baseball forums almost entirely. The only blogs I followed were FanGraphs and Amazin' Avenue. Fire Joe Morgan had shut down. My new girlfriend couldn't have cared less about baseball. I didn't watch every game - maybe twice a week in the beginning of the season, and then once, if that, when the Mets had fallen out of contention. My collection of baseball cards had dwindled through eBay sales over the years to the point where I only really had this one Cal Ripken, Jr. autographed card and my collection of David Wrights. Perhaps most telling, I hadn't read the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract in months. I still played baseball, but I practiced guitar more often. I stopped emulating David Wright and started aping Doug Martsch, Mark Kozelek, Rivers Cuomo, and Elliott Smith. To these men, singing openly about their struggles was a good thing - that's where true power and emotion comes from. I hadn't grown out of baseball, but there wasn't that sense of wonder that old, grizzled baseball men always talk about. It was actually sort of like a crush. And the crush had faded, and it depressed me a little. Baseball was a girlfriend that no longer excited me. And honestly? I blamed Jerry Manuel. Somehow, he sucked out that hope. The hope that we as sports fans feed on. There wasn't anyone exciting in the farm system, my favorites from seasons past had vanished (Ramon Castro, Steve Trachsel, hell - I even loved Ollie when he was good). Remember my hate for that god-awful Doug Mientcewicz? Compared to Jeff Francouer, Doug was a god. And though I'd stopped looking up to him, I clung to David Wright. He was the last thing really holding me to what I used to be - an insane baseball fan. I tracked his fWAR. His oddly declining defense. The trade rumors that always followed him. And once in a while, I'd still turn on the TV just to see him swing. The only hope I really retained for this team was the hope that David Wright would play well despite the abysmal seasons of those around him.

2012 began much like 2011. I didn't have too much interest in the team. Reyes had gone. Carlos Beltran had been gone for a while. This was a team with no one from the 2005 Mets, the team that got me into baseball, except Wright. I didn't develop personal connections with Jason Pridie and Willie Harris like I did with Chris Woodward. I couldn't. Chris Woodward was someone I could personally relate to. Jason Pridie was someone different. He was just a guy doing his job. Anyway, as most of you know, David Wright was a very good baseball player in 2012. He stopped striking out so much, he started fielding better, and he let the Mets hang around in contention for a little bit until the wheels totally fell off in July. And a funny thing happened - rather than watching two games a week, I started watching 3 - then 4 - then 5 a week as the Mets started to fall apart completely. When I left for college, I kept watching the Mets games - online, streaming. I was energized by Matt Harvey. By the promise of Zach Wheeler. By R.A. Dickey, of course, and by Jon Niese's cutter and by Jordany Valdespin's pinch-hit home runs and Ike Davis's resurgence. The 2012 Mets won 74 games - three less than the 2011 Mets, but they imbued me with hope. Who knows? Maybe Ike Davis will turn into April Ike Davis, maybe Jon Niese blows his arm out, maybe Zach Wheeler never gets control, maybe R.A. Dickey gets traded. These players could be Mike Jacobs, or Jae Weong Seo, or Heilman, or Victor Diaz. I realized that I'd lost the reason that I wasn't addicted to, hopelessly in love with baseball anymore. It wasn't just David Wright - no, Wright was a constant. I'd always love David Wright. David Wright - even when David Wright as good, he was still really, really good. But David Wright isn't baseball. No, it was the hoping that the other players could come around him. That an Endy Chavez would come out of nowhere to put up a great season as a backup and give us one of the greatest catches in baseball history. That a Ruben Tejada could emerge as a solid shortstop who could take a walk. Somewhere along the way, David Wright ceased being hope, and I still relied on him, increasingly, to provide that for me. It was only when I realized Wright had become something different that I could crush on baseball again. Having a player like Wright on your team isn't hope - it's what makes hope possible.

David Wright's new contract makes him a Met, essentially, for life. His role as the greatest position player in Mets history, and my favorite player of all time, is assured (although it would be pretty nice if he won a World Series with the Mets). And when he hangs up the spikes, I'll just have to hope another one of him comes around. Pretty wishful thinking, but, eh. That's what we as baseball fans do.

My least favorite was Doug Mientcewicz. I fucking hated Doug Mientcewicz. People used to talk about his defensive value, but all I saw was a guy who couldn't drive in a run to save his life.

Andres Torres to DL

nerfan — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 01:14:53 -0000

Andres Torres to DL

Hopefully Cap'n Kirk is ready to go.

This struck me as eerie.

nerfan — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 23:03:25 -0000

This struck me as eerie.

Super-Preliminary Mets Prospect Guide: Middle Infielders

nerfan — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 03:25:27 -0000

(Bumped from FanPosts. --Eric)

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For an explanation of this post, head to the Catchers and First Basemen part of this guide.

Before we start talking about our prospects, I'd like to talk about two second basemen currently on the roster - Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy. I'm a big believer in Ruben. Guys that put up Major League .360 OBPs in their age-21 season are hard to come by, and while I don't think the power tool will ever really develop past ~30 XBHs a year, his glove, discipline, and average should make him a starter. Daniel Murphy is better, though. Murphy's bat (124 wRC+) will play pretty much anywhere on the diamond, but it plays great at second. His defense looks average both to the naked eye and to the advanced statistics, and I'm of the opinion that if he's healthy and productive in Spring Training, he should win the job. Of course, Ruben Tejada will be playing shortstop in 2012 due to the departure of Jose Reyes, so, yeah. Down on the farm, we have a bunch of high-ceiling guys at both positions, but 2012 will be a make-or-break year for many of them.

Second Basemen

General Overview: Second base has gone from a weakness to a semi-strength in the Mets organization, as players like Josh Satin and Reese Havens have continued to hit, and "shortstop" Jordany Valdespin took a big step forward. In addition, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada, and, to a lesser extent, Justin Turner have all showed some positive results at the big league level. Ultimately, the second basemen are a risky (not to mention graying) bunch. Havens certainly has the ability to take a starting spot away from Murphy, and Valdespin has the ability to take a starting spot away from any of them. Both players, however, carry significant risks. As a future role player, Josh Satin carries less risk and could be a marginally valuable contributor to the Mets right now.

1. Reese Havens (ETA: 2012)

Reese Havens was drafted in the 1st round, as part of the same draft that produced Brad Holt (1st supplemental), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3rd), Josh Satin (6th), and most importantly Ike Davis (1st). While Havens, unlike Davis, no longer has star potential because of continuous injuries, he's still a solid bet to make the major leagues as a regular, particularly if the Mets are willing to deal David Wright (in which case Daniel Murphy would move to third) or if the Mets are willing to deal Daniel Murphy. He's hit everywhere he's played, has good plate discipline and plays good defense. His power would be good from a second baseman but relatively average for the league - at Binghamton last year, Havens posted an ISO of .166. Two red flags do stick out - despite a .372 BABIP, Havens "only" hit .289 at AA, and he struck out in 24.4% of his plate appearances. Scouts love his swing, and mechanically I can find nothing wrong with it - it's short, compact, and simple. I'm wondering if a slightly more aggressive approach at the plate might benefit Havens, as the strikeouts will become a much greater problem as he starts to advance up the levels. I'm extremely curious to see what Havens does in Spring Training 2012, as his advanced age (he turned 25 in October) basically means he has to start making his impact now.

Major League Projection: Havens has a similar skillset to Danny Espinosa or a slower Rickie Weeks. If he can stay healthy, he's going to be an above-average regular. That is a big if.

Tools (bat/power/arm/glove/speed): 50/50/50/60/45

Overall Rating: 56

(Bumped from FanPosts. --Eric)

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For an explanation of this post, head to the Catchers and First Basemen part of this guide.

Second Basemen

1. Reese Havens (ETA: 2012)

Major League Projection: Havens has a similar skillset to Danny Espinosa or a slower Rickie Weeks. If he can stay healthy, he's going to be an above-average regular. That is a big if.

Tools (bat/power/arm/glove/speed): 50/50/50/60/45

Overall Rating: 56

2. Jordany Valdespin (ETA: 2013)

Valdespin, who turns 24 in a couple of weeks, is, as I'm sure you've heard, a physically gifted but flawed player. His two biggest flaws are his poor plate discipline and his character issues. I'll deal with the first one first, because character is less likely to make-or-break Valdespin. Basically, Valdespin posted a 93-25 K/BB ratio between AA and AAA, and while that would be good for a starting pitcher, it trends into Shawon Dunston-like levels in the major leagues. Valdespin is alternately listed at 5' 10'' and 150 on Fangraphs and 6' 0'' and 190 on Baseball-Reference, and he's likely much closer to the second figure - Valdespin doesn't have much room to grow, and while that's not a problem in and of itself his power has likely developed to the point where it doesn't project to develop much more. I don't think Valdespin is going to have much luck against tough breaking balls, his swing isn't exactly pretty although it makes solid contact, and he's never met a fastball he didn't like. For these reasons, Valdespin's bat is going to have to continue to improve if he wants to be a big league starter. His character issues are also going to dog him for a while, so he's going to have to work on that in addition to his bat. Now, the good. Valdespin is quite fast and his speed is going to allow him to beat out quite a few ground balls. He was a below-average shortstop when I saw him play, but he won't embarrass himself there. He's an above-average second baseman. I think his range plays well at second, and as a converted shortstop the thing he has to learn most is how to convert the double play. Ultimately, Valdespin is an intriguing prospect, but has almost as many caught stealings as walks. 2011 was a big step forward, but he'll have to take another one at AAA (where his OBP dwindled to a miserable .304 last year).

I listed Valdespin as a second baseman because everyone says he's going to play second base in the majors.

Major League Projection: Howie Kendrick and Darwin Barney are the guys most comparable to Valdespin, but he's not really comparable to any guy playing in the major leagues right now (low BB%, high K%, good glove, average power/bat).

Tools: 45/45/55/55/60

Overall Rating: 50

3. Josh Satin (ETA: Now)

Josh Satin is going to turn 27 in a couple weeks - he was born on December 23, 1984, the same date as Valdespin, but three years older. Most players at 27 are either non-prospect organizational fodder or major league players. Satin is both. He's always been old for his league - at 23, he was still a college senior, and he's moved up slowly but steadily through the minor league system of the New York Mets, leaving a trail of a .300/.390/.480 campaigns in his wake. We know pretty much all about Josh Satin at this point. Last year, he picked up a lot of at-bats under the alias Justin Turner (if you check it out, Turner's minor league stats are very similar to Satin's), and performed adequately. Both players will be 27 next year, and if I had to pick between the two, I'd choose Turner, who plays average defense and has nice range, as well as slightly more speed and a more proven bat. The main thing that Satin brings to the table is versatility, as he's capable of playing first, second, and third base. Unfortunately for Satin, 2012 likely means a stint in AAA for Satin. If he's hot in Spring Training, though, I'm more than comfortable awarding the spot to Satin, who probably has just a bit more power than Turner.

Major League Projection: If you want to be really, really generous, a righthanded Daniel Murphy. If you don't want to be generous, a defensively-challenged Justin Turner with the ability to play first.

Tools: 50/40/40/40/40

Overall Rating: 46

4. Robbie Shields (ETA: 2014, if at all)

Like the rest of the guys on this list, Robbie Shields is old. Not like Jamie Moyer old, but like 23-year-old playing at A/A+ old. I don't know much about him and I honestly don't have much to say, so I'll just go off the statline. The positives: in 80 games, Shields cracked .273/.350/.416 and had a very nice 45-37 K/BB ratio. By all accounts, his defense plays at second nicely and at short okay. The negatives: he's 23 and didn't have the kind of eye-popping season you'd like to see from a 23-year-old player in Single-A ball. I don't like Shields' swing much. He has a big hole low-and-inside and in general he's going to be a high-ball hitter. Maybe Shields can get everything figured out, but he's not the kind of guy I'd expect to contribute at the big league level, and if he does he won't start. He also has injury problems, and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009. Not a non-prospect just yet, though.

Tools: 45/35/50/50/45

Major League Projection: Shields would love to have the same kind of career as Jamey Carroll

Overall Rating: 42

Also maybe of interest: Brooklyn keystoner Brandon Brown, who got into 27 games at second and slashed .301/.361/.465. His advanced age makes him a non-prospect. Ismael Tijerina, who was just 21 but barely managed to crack the Mendoza line. Undrafted free agent T.J. Rivera. He actually wasn't too bad in 2011, but he's old also. Yeah, every second baseman in this entire system is old. The awesomely named Yucarybert De La Cruz, who OPS'd .100 points better in 2011 than 2010. The bad news? His OPS in 2011 was .628. Rylan Sandoval wasn't much better, batting just .224/.291/.353 and cementing his status as organizational fodder. Speedy Venezuelan Alvan "Macarena" Macararo garnered 134 PAs in the DSL and swiped 10 bags. He turns 19 in February, so we won't see him actually play for a while. 2011 '2nd base candidate' Luis Hernandez, also known as the Rick Santorum of Mets second basemen, played badly at AAA. At least his last name isn't synonymous with something very, very gross.

Shortstops

General Overview: With Ruben Tejada set to fill a pair of very big boots in 2012, the Mets look to move on from the Reyes era. Though the system offers very little at the top, the Mets certainly have a lot of talent clustered in the bottom. Basically, the shortstops of the Mets farm system are the reverse of the second basemen - young, without a long minor league track record, and specialized in talent rather than solid around the board. Looking towards the future, though, shortstop is a position which the Mets must stockpile at, as aside from Wilfredo Tovar, there is serious doubt that any of the Mets farmhands can handle the position capably.

1. Wilmer Flores (ETA: Late 2013 to 2014)

I love Wilmer Flores's swing. Everything about it is just wonderful - he rotates his hips well, he can turn on balls, he can make contact even on bad balls. Unfortunately, Flores often makes contact on bad balls. The word on Flores is that he's a very streaky player, and when things are going well his swing looks tremendous and when things are going badly his swing looks poor. When I had the chance both to see him in person and watch him on video, he must have been on, because some scouts were complaining that he did a sort of double-tap with his swing that I never noticed. Anyway, no one doubts that Flores's bat, when it's on, is among the best tools in the entire system. Unfortunately, his other tools have all been missing in action, and his plate discipline really needs to improve. Unlike most people, I think that Flores can stay on short if you're willing to have a -8 or so defender. Yeah, his footspeed is pretty bad and his range won't ever be average. However, Flores's arm, from what I've seen, is plus, and his hands are soft and his reactions are very good. This skillset would play very well at third base, but as long as the Mets have David Wright at the hot corner they should stick it out with Flores at short. He'll probably eventually outgrow the position, anyway. Flores' biggest problems have been his lack of power and his truly awful BB%, which sat at just 4.8% at St. Lucie. Flores needs to work deeper counts, as his strikeout rate is pretty good and he can afford a couple more if it means more walks as well. I'm confident that as Flores matures, his plate discipline will improve to the point where it's at least decent. Having Flores talk to and work with Dave Hudgens would be good. His power will also start to develop more, but I don't foresee Flores as ever having more than 25-home-run power. Rather, he'll be mostly a doubles hitter. I like Flores a lot, and I think he's poised to take the next step forward in 2012. Another note - his 2011 BABIP of .291 was probably a little low for him.

Tools: 70/60/55/45/40

Major League Projection: Michael Young. Like Young, Flores will be awful-to-mediocre at short and decent at third.

Overall Rating: 59

2. Wilfredo Tovar (ETA: 2014)

I like this guy a lot. He's a lot like Ruben Tejada, only I think his defensive tools are even better. So yeah, he only slashed .251/.318/.318 with Savannah. He was also just 19 years old (he's five days younger), and he's supposed to be amazing at defense (my eyes can confirm this). But I'm not sure at all about him, either. He's one of those guys who could bust easily because unlike Tejada, Tovar can't hit a breaking ball. At 19, Tejada, in the same number of PAs and playing at AA rather than single-A, had 6 more XBHs, 4 more SBs, superior rate stats, and had a similarly elite defensive reputation. Tovar's going to have to take a big step forward to pass Tejada on the depth chart. And he certainly has the talent to do so, I just need to see him hit. If he doesn't hit, his ceiling is that of a utility middle infielder. Tovar isn't fast, but he's incredibly quick and his glove is probably the best out of any Met farmhand. Again, he really needs to hit just a bit. Even a .260/.320/.330 line at the major leagues with Tovar's defense would be a very good player.

Tools: 40/40/60/75/50

Major League Projection: Alcides Escobar

Overall Rating: 52

3. Philip Evans (ETA: Late 2014)

I haven't seen Philip Evans play. But the other scouts all seem to like him, giving him good grades across the board for strong plate discipline, a plus bat, and good defensive instincts. Some scouts think he'll move to second base due to a lack of arm strength, but I took a look at his frame and I think he's probably going to fill out just a little bit and his arm will improve to slightly above-average (which would still be slightly below-average for a shortstop). The Mets took him in the 15th round and paid him $650,000. Evans isn't a 'safe' bet to make the major leagues by any stretch of the imagination, but he's the kind of guy who shouldn't have too much of a problem in the low minors. I'd like to see him in Savannah rather than short-season again in 2012, but the Mets under Alderson should rightfully be worried about rushing prospects too much.

Tools: 55/50/50/50/50

Major League Projection: Yunel Escobar

Overall Rating: 52

4. Danny Muno (ETA: 2013)

I'm not getting burned by another Brooklyn sensation who was old for the league and ripped through it with the help of BABIP (see: Ceciliani, Darrell). I like Muno's swing, but honestly I don't know enough about him to write anything particularly enlightening, so I'll just parrot what other people have said about Muno - he's got a great approach at the plate and a future utility role would be a pretty great slot for him. Muno, who is fast, might play well in centerfield based on what I've heard people say about him. He's a great choice as an 8th rounder, though.

Tools: 55/40/45/40/55

Major League Projection: Orlando Hudson-type player with the ability to play shortstop

Overall Rating: 50

Also maybe of interest: Juan Carlos Gamboa, who at 20 showed some surprising pop for a little guy (he's 5' 7'') across three levels, slugging .450. He struck out 41 times in 191 at-bats, but he'll get a chance to start somewhere next year. Outside of these five guys, I'm not sure anyone else even mentions a passing note - 37-year-old Luis Figueroa's .720 OPS in AAA was the best of any regular Mets shortstop farmhand.

Super-Preliminary Mets Prospect Guide: Catchers and First Basemen

nerfan — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 17:23:27 -0000

Introduction

I've never liked ranking prospects in one big list, but I do enjoy talking about them and projecting their major league equivalents. For what it's worth, I've only seen about 40% of these players actually play and, being a former pitcher, I have a lot more knowledge about pitching than hitting. But anyway, let's get on to the list, which I'll do position-by-position. Feel free to disagree with me on many of the rankings or my projected tools.

A Note On The Ratings

My tools do not take into account position - neither do most people's. A 50/50 bat/power ranking plays very well at shortstop - it roughly correlates to a .260 batting average and around 13-15 home runs. Similarly, a 50/50 arm/glove plays very well at first base, and 50 speed plays great at catcher. Very few major leaguers have average skills at every tool - as WAR lovers will tell you, there is a lot of value in average. Even fewer have plus, or 60, ratings at every tool. True 5-tool players would include Carlos Beltran (60 / 70 / 70 / 80 / 70) or Willie Mays (70 / 80 / 80 / 80 / 80). Mays is probably the only player in history who grades out as a total 80. Arm/glove/speed are all fairly subjective, but I'd use these as the following benchmarks.

Tool	Bat	Power (in HR)
20	.210	0 to 4
30	.230	5 to 9
40	.250	10 to 12
50	.265	13 to 19
60	.280	20 to 28
70	.300	29 to 41
80	.320	42 or more

As you can see, a 20 means basically unplayable and an 80 means contention for batting title/home run title. Tools are obviously future projection, not current level. Like some people, I also consolidate all of the tools into a total rating for a player, which can also be from 20-80. Anyone below a 40 is unlikely to make it to the major leagues. 40-49 is a likely bench player or second-division starter. 50-54 is an average player. 55-60 is an above-average player. 61-65 is a lower-level All-Star. 66-70 is a upper-tier All-Star. Anyone 71 or above has Hall of Fame level tools. Overall rating does take into account position - it also takes into account how injury-prone a player is and how likely they are to reach their ceiling. A player with great tools who is injury-prone and less likely to reach their ceiling is docked a bit in their overall rating. Basically, an overall rating is the average career path I think the player will attain, barring serious, unforeseen injury. That's about it - if you have any questions, feel free to ask me in the comments.

Catchers

General Overview: Since the graduation of OBP-oriented backstop Josh Thole to the big leagues, the Mets minor league catching depth has been seriously poor, and did not improve significantly in the 2011 Draft (with 14th rounder Xorge Carillo being the highest backstop taken). I'm higher on Josh Thole than a lot of you are, and I think that he could be a basically above-average starter at the position. He better be, because this farm system has a whole bunch of likely backups in it along with a few sleepers. Overall, most of the catchers in the Mets farm system (towards the top end, at least) are in the same mold - potentially good bats with below-average power and decent gloves. This type of player is pretty uncommon for a catcher - most catchers have below-average bats and potentially good power (see Forsythe, Blake). But anyway, on to the list.

1. Albert Cordero (ETA: Late 2013 to 2014)

The bright spot in the Mets organization is Albert Cordero, who displayed several above-average tools in the Sally League this year and largely backed up his solid performance in rookie-ball. Although Cordero started the 2011 campaign brutally, he rebounded a bit and Rob Castellano did a great write-up of him in a Prospect Spotlight, which can be found here. Cordero already possesses a strong arm and a solid bat, and surprising speed from a catcher, which helps a lot behind the plate. Ultimately, I don't think Cordero profiles as any sort of star, but he's the kind of player that can chug right along producing at a league-average or better rate. Right now, the most important thing for Cordero to work on is improving his unsightly 15-69 BB/K ratio (his swing runs long at times and I'm not sure that his approach at the plate is the best, even with the improvements he's made). Once he has that down, we might see him sooner than we think. Overall, I like his swing. Cordero has quick wrists and the ability to make solid contact with the ball. Some scouts see him as a guy with future above-average power, but I can't reconcile that with his need to improve strike-zone judgement. I could be wrong, though.

Major League Projection: Think Carlos Ruiz with less walks and a bit more doubles power at best, think a solid, replacement-level, defensive backup at worst.

Tools (bat/power/arm/glove/speed): 50 / 40 / 65 / 50 / 40

Overall Rating: 53

2. Juan Centeno (ETA: 2014)

The tiny (5' 9'') Centeno backed up Francisco Pena (who you will see later down on this list), and outperformed him in every aspect of the game. As you might project based on his frame, his speed is above-average for a catcher and he knows how to handle the bat and even bunted for a single. As a hitter, his major strength is his bat, and his power potential is likely limited by his small size and swing. At the plate, Centeno puts all of his weight on his back foot immediately and takes almost no uppercut. His swing reminds me a lot of Luis Castillo's from the left side. This could potentially lead to a lot of ground balls as opposed to line drives, but I'm not particularly worried about that for two reasons - #1, Centeno is fast enough (at least right now) to run out a lot of those ground balls, and #2, Centeno doesn't have the same mind-set that Castillo has. Castillo was actually trying to hit ground balls through the holes, whereas Centeno wants to hit the ball hard, right on the nose, and maybe hit a fly ball once in a while (instead of them being anathema as they were to Luis). In the AFL, Centeno is hitting .250 on the nose in 44 at-bats, which is pretty decent given the level of competition, and he's impressed with his defensive abilities as well (apparently, Centeno has both above-average tools behind the dish and a good arm). He'll get the chance to show his stuff at Double-A Binghamton next year, and if he develops a consistent .300 bat in the minors, he might have a chance to start in the majors.

Major League Projection: This is a hard one, as Centeno's skillset is quite unusual for a catcher. The closest comp I can think of off of the top of my head is Ronny Paulino circa 2006, with better fielding and baserunning abilities.

Tools (bat/power/arm/glove/speed): 55 / 30 / 55 / 55 / 50

Overall Rating: 50

3. Cam Maron (ETA: 2015)

Cam Maron? Who's that? Well, he's a Long Island-born Mets fan who won a Sterling Award as the best Met on the Kingsport affiliate. I've never seen him hitting and only had the vaguest sense of who he was coming into 2011, so I was pleasantly surprised to see the 20-year-old put up a 136 wRC+ in 248 at-bats for Kingsport (he had earlier put up similar lines in much more limited playing time). Much of his offensive production is OBP-driven (yes, yet another catcher that fits this mold), and reports indicate that while his defense isn't exactly great, it's not terrible either, as he threw out 24% of basestealers. One concern is that Maron's ISO was a mere .095 and his BABIP was an inflated .372, but young catchers with this kind of plate discipline haven't come around since... well, Josh Thole. Like Thole, Maron bats left-handed, and he shares a low-power, high-average and walks mindset. Maron will probably play in Savannah next year, and I'm interested in seeing how he adapts to high-A ball. At essentially the same age, Thole hit .267/.372/.311 at that level and had started to establish himself in the minds of the Mets brass. If Maron can match or exceed that performance, we might be looking at a guy who could contribute either in a backup or possible starting role. Don't get too excited though - if Maron's BABIP was a more reasonable .310, his batting average would be a barely-palatable .253.

Major League Projection: Josh Thole

Tools: too early to judge (and no video!), but Maron's best asset will likely be his bat, followed by his glove. The rest of his tools will probably be below average at best.

Overall Rating: 48

4. Blake Forsythe (ETA: Late 2014 to 2015, if at all)

Forsythe strikes out a ton and his power hasn't developed as expected since he was drafted in 2010. However, his defensive skills aren't bad and his plate discipline (12.9%) has been just good enough to mark him as a solid contributor in the pitcher-friendly Grayson Stadium. A 28.3% K-rate in A-ball simply isn't going to play in the majors, though. Right now, Forsythe looks basically like organizational depth, with maybe a couple of cups of coffee in the majors. I wouldn't go so far as to call 2012 Forsythe's make-or-break campaign, but it's his best chance to move up significantly in the eyes of the Mets. Right now, he looks like a bust.

Major League Equivalent: If everything comes together for Forsythe, he could be a Ramon Castro type

Tools: 35 / 50 / 50 / 40 / 40

Overall Rating: 41

5. Francisco Pena (ETA: N/A)

I never liked Pena's projection-only skillset, and Tony Pena's son has basically become a forgotten man in the Mets organization. Although the catcher wisely uses the terrific 'Chacarron Macarron' song as his warm-up music, his swing is long and he is fooled easily by anything resembling an off-speed pitch and also he is late on every fastball. He's old for the league, has warning-track power, and his bat is just putrid. I remember reading in 2009 that John Sickels said that Pena flat-out 'sucked'. At the time, I was willing to give Pena a free pass (due to him being a 19-year old catcher in high-A ball). The problem is that not only can Pena not take a free pass, he can't do anything (well, his arm isn't bad). He's got literally one more chance to turn it around before he fades into obscurity.

Tools: 30 / 35 / 50 / 45 / 30

Overall Rating: 36

ETA: He might make Double-A by 2013. I mean, he's been at St. Lucie (A+) for 3 years now and he's destined to go there a fourth time. At this point, he's organizational fodder. The only reason I'm including him on my top five is because I know absolutely nothing about the other three men who caught a significant amount in the Mets farm system, and because at one point I thought Pena might be decent. I was wrong.

Also maybe of interest: Jeff Glenn, who hit .255/.326/.408 in the Appalachian League. A ninth-rounder from Florida, Glenn might be poised to take a big step forward in 2012. I know almost nothing about him, but his ceiling is probably higher than most of the guys on this list. Neifi Zapata, who OBP'd just 2 points above his batting average in 2011, but has a fair bit of power for a young catcher. He obviously has some work to do with that swing, though. I don't like the leg kick and he's going to have a hard time catching up to hard or moving fastballs. Xorge Carillo, who's got an x as the first letter of his first name and thus stands to inherit the X-Man nickname last possessed by Xavier Nady. In all seriousness, Carillo's a guy to watch more closely in 2012, but I feel uncomfortable ranking him based on a bad-luck (.225 BABIP) short stint (104 PA) appearance in low-A. His peripherals would indicate that he's not completely worthless. Kai Gronauer, who is best known for being German, played solid defense and hit well enough as a 23-year old in A+ ball in 2010, but struggled in AA and is likely done as a prospect, doomed to struggle to become Mike Nickeas, who is clearly the fourth-string catcher of the future.

Introduction

A Note On The Ratings

Tool	Bat	Power (in HR)
20	.210	0 to 4
30	.230	5 to 9
40	.250	10 to 12
50	.265	13 to 19
60	.280	20 to 28
70	.300	29 to 41
80	.320	42 or more

Catchers

1. Albert Cordero (ETA: Late 2013 to 2014)

Major League Projection: Think Carlos Ruiz with less walks and a bit more doubles power at best, think a solid, replacement-level, defensive backup at worst.

Tools (bat/power/arm/glove/speed): 50 / 40 / 65 / 50 / 40

Overall Rating: 53

2. Juan Centeno (ETA: 2014)

Tools (bat/power/arm/glove/speed): 55 / 30 / 55 / 55 / 50

Overall Rating: 50

3. Cam Maron (ETA: 2015)

Major League Projection: Josh Thole

Tools: too early to judge (and no video!), but Maron's best asset will likely be his bat, followed by his glove. The rest of his tools will probably be below average at best.

Overall Rating: 48

4. Blake Forsythe (ETA: Late 2014 to 2015, if at all)

Major League Equivalent: If everything comes together for Forsythe, he could be a Ramon Castro type

Tools: 35 / 50 / 50 / 40 / 40

Overall Rating: 41

5. Francisco Pena (ETA: N/A)

Tools: 30 / 35 / 50 / 45 / 30

Overall Rating: 36

First Basemen

General Overview: It's a good thing that Ike Davis is going to be healthy in 2011, because first base in the farm system is manned by men too old to play in the league and still struggling or performing just adequately in it. Nick Evans, who can play first, mashed at Buffalo, while 32-year-old non-prospect Valentino Pascucci hit pretty well at the same level. Elsewhere, guys like Allan Dykstra or Joe Bonfe played well enough to hold down a job but not nearly well enough to earn a second look. Rather than give a full write-up to most of the first basemen, I'm just going to write a couple sentences for each, since none of them are really interesting enough to dedicate an entire paragraph to. (Sorry if you're reading this, Mets farmhands! You could certainly kick my sorry ass all around the ballfield.)

1. Cole Frenzel (ETA: 2014)

Cole Frenzel, a 7th round pick out of the University of Arizona, largely sucked it up with Brooklyn in 2011, hitting just .238/.321/.294. That's not what I'd like to see out of a college first baseman, but I like Frenzel's swing, which looks to me pretty fluid and sweet, without any real major holes in it. He's a big guy, but his swing is more line-drive oriented, with the ability to drive the ball to the gaps. I wish I had more video (I only got to see Frenzel once in 2011, where he impressed me) but I'm interested to see what Frenzel does at Savannah in 2012. Of the three men on this list, he's the only one that could eventually bloom into a starter. He's basically a bat-only prospect (with terrific plate discipline), though, so the bat's gonna have to be really good to carry the rest of his tools, which are average (arm and glove, although they should play well at first) to well-below-average (speed). If a major league comparison could be made, it would be Daniel Murphy with less positional versatility due to a lack of speed.

Major League Equivalent: Anyone old enough to remember Mike Hargrove as a hitter?

Tools: 65 / 45 / 45 / 45 / 40

Overall Rating: 49

2. Stefan Welch (ETA: 2013, if he outperforms Dysktra)

Welch, repeating A+ for the third straight year, had a pretty good year at St. Lucie as the everyday first baseman and has solidified himself as some pretty good organizational fodder. His walk rate spiked to 11.1% this year, he works deep counts, and hit .294/.403/.505 against righties, making him a potentially decent bat off the bench against northpaws. The Australian Welch will probably get a couple of cups of coffee to replace an injured player, but he's too old (he turns 24 next August) to really be an impact player in the bigs. He's going to get the chance to prove himself against tougher competition in Binghamton next year, and if he passes that test he could be a pretty good bench player for years.

Tools: 45 / 50 / 45 / 45 / 40

Overall Rating: 42

3. Allan Dykstra (ETA: 2013, if he outperforms Welch)

Allan Dykstra put up a very solid .387 wOBA at Binghamton last year. He also struck out 28% of the time there. Because Dykstra will probably never get the chance to play in the majors (at least not as long as left-handed bench bats capable of handling first base who won't strike out 40% of the time in the majors exist), his future likely lies as a AAA slugger. He's probably headed that way next year. I'd honestly rather see Welch in the majors as a last-resort injury replacement for Ike Davis, but neither would provide the same production as Nick Evans or probably even a Mike Baxter-type.

Tools: 40 / 55 / 35 / 35 / 40

Overall Rating: 38

Also maybe of interest: Luke Stewart and Ryan Hutson, professional baseball players in name only. Both 23 year olds failed to hit at all in the rookie leagues and are likely done as prospects. Sam Honeck, a 24-year-old who was OPSing .652 in Savannah when he was sidelined with a concussion, and was summarily replaced by Joe Bonfe, a 24-year-old who OPSed .645. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 New York Mets first base prospects! To be fair, only the best hitters come into the system as first basemen. Most first basemen are good bats who are converted from other positions after the organization finds out that they can't cut it at shortstop or center field. Only players considered organizational fodder or those who are true plus bats are drafted as first basemen.

Coming soon: Middle Infielders, on Thursday

Coming later: Third basemen and center fielders, probably on Sunday

Coming much later: Left and right fielders, next Tuesday

Coming after that: Pitchers, probably on Friday. maybe Saturday

AAOP: Smells Like Team Spirit

nerfan — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 13:18:35 -0000

Proudly presenting - The One and Only AAOP with more ridiculous, farcical graphs than good ideas!

Trades and Signings

The Mets in 2011, for the first time in ages, did not suffer from a lack of grit. Second base, often regarded as a particularly gritty position (perhaps second only to the catcher) in particular displayed a level of intestinal fortitude not seen since the early days of Ty Wigginton. Lack of grit, however, is not the same as an abundance of it.

1) Let Jose Reyes walk

Reyes will simply be too expensive to keep on our budget, which already has the contracts of Jason Bay, Johan Santana, and David Wright weighing it down/ Like Sandy said, signing Jose might hamstring the budget, and quite honestly, assuming Jose Reyes will produce ~18 WAR over the course of a five year contract, $5.5M per win is not something I'm willing to pay. Jose is too risky for a team like the Mets, who are not particularly close to contending, to sign. My prediction is that he winds up with Sabean and the Giants for something like 5/100.

2) Let Chris Capuano walk

Yeah, Cappy put up a really nice season this year, especially peripherally. This means that he's due for some sort of significant payday. The Mets have other guys who can put up 1.6 WAR. Who are these mythical beasts? Read on.

3) Trade for a decent pitcher

The Mets could use some more pitching. The guy that I think the Mets need to target is Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello. Porcello became a forgotten man in Detroit with the ers of Verlander, Fister, and Scherzer heading the rotation and the other er of Jacob Turner waiting in the wings. Last year, Porcello posted a FIP of 4.06 and has terrific potential to improve. However, I feel that he's become an undervalued commodity. To get him, the Mets could build a package around Justin Turner and a couple good prospects (pick two of Lagares, Flores, Nieuwenhuis, Puello), who I love but doesn't have too much of a place on the team. The Detroit Tigers, on the other hand, desperately need a utility infielder second baseman. Turner would be a perfect fit on the Tigers. We could also trade Murphy straight up for Porcello but we need the Murph Dog to play second base because Ruben Tejada is playing short and there is no Jose Reyes.

If Dave Dombrowski wasn't an old-school guy who probably looks at ERA, or I didn't trust Sandy to make a steal here, I wouldn't make this trade.

4) Trade Mike Pelfrey for salary relief/C-grade prospects, or failing that, tender him a contract because we are gonna need some innings.

Our rotation at the top end will include Johan Santana, RA Dickey, and Jonathan Niese. Between these guys, we can expect some nice quality innings. Then we need some other inning sources. After June 1st, we will call up either Jeurys Familia or Matt Harvey and replace the underperforming players.

Here are the in-house starting pitchers we can use as holdovers until the cavalry emerges.

And that's it.

I honestly don't think Schwinden is any worse than Gee and whoever pitches better in spring training should win the fifth starter's job. If we can't trade Pelfrey we will use him over Schwinden or Gee, stick Gee in long relief and put Schwinden in AAA.

5) Sign Grady Sizemore to an incentive laden deal

Pretty self-explanatory. We hope that he can regain his prior form, and keep Angel Pagan around as a fourth outfielder to spell Duda and Bay and come in for defense. And if Sizemore injures himself, we have both Pagan and Captain Kirk waiting in the wings.

6) We need a backup catcher

mike nickeas

7) Mike Nickeas gets injured!

mike piazza

8) Mike Piazza is retired!

mike difelice

9) We have Ronny Paulino?

oh ya bring him back

10) dat bullpen

We should keep Bobby Parnell, Pedro Beato (loljk we will use Daniel Ray Herrera instead), and Manny Acosta. The Acostalypse will become our shutdown supercloser. Signing a closer for 4.5M to perform 0.2 WAR better than Acosta is silly. We got the Byrdman as our lefty ace out of the pen. Then we sign Micah Owings and Juan Cruz to walk the bases loaded for mere pennies (spring invites lol). Fill out the bullpen with Gee/Schwinden and the sweet spinning styles of DJ Carrasco or the less sucky spinning styles of Josh Stinson, and presto pronto you've got yourself the world's crummiest bullpen. We also tender a contract to Taylor Buchholz and hope he stops being sad cause god damn he is filthy.

11) Do not spend any more money! oh but we need a backup ss/2b.

We don't need any more benchies. Instead we will replace them with other luzers who aren't good enough to play in the starting lineup. These include luzers like Josh Satin and Nick Evans. Satin will assume the Murphy role from last season. Evans will assume the righthanded bench bat role last year that was filled by Evans. Then we need WILLIE BLOOMQUIST to grit this thang up. Too bad David Eckstein is retired or he would have been the perfect backup ss/2b. Bloomquist is an extreme insurance option as I expect Tejada and Murphy to play 155 games a year. If this doesn't happen Hi Jordany welcome to the Majors!

12) but Nerfan, this team only costs 84.8 million bucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That means we sign Albert Pujols for 25M a year for 10 years. Thanks for playing, ladies and gentlemen. No, but actually, this money is for the future. If we save 25 million now, we can dump a truckload of money into the international free agent market. My AAOP is designed not to contend in 2012 or even 2013, but 2014 and beyond. The Mets are stuck somewhere in between rebuilding and contending. If we had a 130M budget to work with, I'd say damn the torpedos, sign Reyes and Yu Darvish, and go for it in 2012. Right now I think the Mets have to go into full rebuild mode.

Nah, I'm gonna sign me Pujols. Stick Pujols in left field. Move Jason Bay to the Nick Evans slot.

A word on Jose Reyes:

Look, Ruben Tejada's performance would have been worth 3+ WAR prorated over a full season. And he's still improving. The Tejada/Murphy combination will outperform the Turner/Reyes combination next year. That's my guarantee of the year.

The Opening Day Roster

please note that if Mike Pelfrey is brought back this team will be more expensive

Position	Player	$ (Millions)
C	Josh Thole	0.4
1B	Ike Davis	0.4
2B	Daniel Murphy	0.4
3B	David Wright	15.3
SS	Ruben Tejada	0.4
LF	Albert Pujols	25.0
CF	Grady Sizemore	6.0
RF	Lucas Duda	0.4
Bench	Angel Pagan	4.7
Bench	Josh Satin	0.4
Bench	Jason Bay	18.1
Bench	Ronny Paulino	1.5
Bench	Willie Bloomquist	0.6
SP	Johan Santana	24.0
SP	R.A. Dickey	4.8
SP	Rick Porcello	1.5
SP	Jon Niese	0.5
SP	Dillon Gee	0.5
Clozer	Manny Acosta	1.0
RP	Juan Cruz	0.5
RP	Taylor Buchholz	0.9
RP	Tim Byrdak	1.2
RP	Bobby Parnell	0.4
RP	Daniel Ray Herrera	0.4
Minors	D.J. Carrasco	1.2
	Total	109.3

Proudly presenting - The One and Only AAOP with more ridiculous, farcical graphs than good ideas!

Trades and Signings

1) Let Jose Reyes walk

2) Let Chris Capuano walk

3) Trade for a decent pitcher

If Dave Dombrowski wasn't an old-school guy who probably looks at ERA, or I didn't trust Sandy to make a steal here, I wouldn't make this trade.

4) Trade Mike Pelfrey for salary relief/C-grade prospects, or failing that, tender him a contract because we are gonna need some innings.

Here are the in-house starting pitchers we can use as holdovers until the cavalry emerges.

And that's it.

5) Sign Grady Sizemore to an incentive laden deal

6) We need a backup catcher

mike nickeas

7) Mike Nickeas gets injured!

mike piazza

8) Mike Piazza is retired!

mike difelice

9) We have Ronny Paulino?

oh ya bring him back

10) dat bullpen

11) Do not spend any more money! oh but we need a backup ss/2b.

12) but Nerfan, this team only costs 84.8 million bucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nah, I'm gonna sign me Pujols. Stick Pujols in left field. Move Jason Bay to the Nick Evans slot.

A word on Jose Reyes:

The Opening Day Roster

please note that if Mike Pelfrey is brought back this team will be more expensive

Position	Player	$ (Millions)
C	Josh Thole	0.4
1B	Ike Davis	0.4
2B	Daniel Murphy	0.4
3B	David Wright	15.3
SS	Ruben Tejada	0.4
LF	Albert Pujols	25.0
CF	Grady Sizemore	6.0
RF	Lucas Duda	0.4
Bench	Angel Pagan	4.7
Bench	Josh Satin	0.4
Bench	Jason Bay	18.1
Bench	Ronny Paulino	1.5
Bench	Willie Bloomquist	0.6
SP	Johan Santana	24.0
SP	R.A. Dickey	4.8
SP	Rick Porcello	1.5
SP	Jon Niese	0.5
SP	Dillon Gee	0.5
Clozer	Manny Acosta	1.0
RP	Juan Cruz	0.5
RP	Taylor Buchholz	0.9
RP	Tim Byrdak	1.2
RP	Bobby Parnell	0.4
RP	Daniel Ray Herrera	0.4
Minors	D.J. Carrasco	1.2
	Total	109.3

"That’s gut check," said Vick, after Philadelphia dropped its third straight game. "Some people...

nerfan — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 02:14:21 -0000

"That’s gut check," said Vick, after Philadelphia dropped its third straight game. "Some people have it and some people don’t but we’re going to find out who’s got it."

I didn't know it was June yet.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AskZjYnuLvRPjHrgHV3gEfpDubYF?slug=lc-carpenter_frustrated_vick_over_my_dead_body_100211

Top 10 Most Completely Wrong Mets-Related Arguments

nerfan — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 21:58:17 -0000

(Bumped from FanPosts. --Eric)

---

Hey, my name's Paul. By virtue of living in New York, I encounter many Mets fans. Some are more knowledgeable than others. Some are closet Yankee fans. Other times I hear arguments about the Mets from real Yankees fans. Perhaps annoyed that Pedro Feliciano arrived broken, these Yankees fans have taken it to themselves to utter complete nonsense about the Mets. Today I present to you twenty of the arguments that I have heard this year, courtesy mostly of Dan*, a man so virulently idiotic he once used the argument... well, you'll see it later. It's number two on the list.

(name changed to protect the absolutely clueless)

10. If the Mets don't sign Jose Reyes after this year, they should sign Jimmy Rollins to a contract. He's cheaper than Reyes and he's a winner, unlike Rey-ass.

Why this argument is wrong: It's Jimmy Rollins. I mean first, let's do some math based on the actual statistics. Jimmy Rollins will probably want something in the 3-year/36M range, which is arguably 42 million dollars more than Jimmy Rollins deserves. I mean, this is a man who once won the MVP while leading the league in outs. Outs! His power, which is admittedly pretty nice for a shortstop, will dry up in Citi... aw, hell. Why am I even typing this. It's Jimmy Rollins.

(Bumped from FanPosts. --Eric)

---

10. If the Mets don't sign Jose Reyes after this year, they should sign Jimmy Rollins to a contract. He's cheaper than Reyes and he's a winner, unlike Rey-ass.

9. RA Dickey is not a major league starter. He's old and not a part of the Mets future.

Why this argument is wrong: And before you think this is just some crazy idea that the completely unenlightened blabber on about, let it be known that Dickey was bashed on LoudMouths by Adam Schein. This argument is almost too dumb to exist. Dickey's actually striking out more batters than last year (5.37 K/9 last year to a 5.80 K/9 this year), while walking about the same amount of batters. He's had a bit more trouble with the longball based on the fact that he's inducing less grounders, but this can be chalked up largely to Dickey using his fastball more and his knuckler less. And by the way, if you're questioning his approach to games these days (throwing the fastball too much), his fastball has actually been worth 14 more runs than his knuckleball this season. Let the man pitch, he knows what he's doing and he's cheap. He's a 2-3 WAR starter, which is more than we can for sure say about...

8. The Mets should non-tender Angel Pagan after the season.

Why this argument is wrong: Angel Pagan has a crazy low UZR this season. He's hitting well below his career norm, most likely due to a .281 BABIP that's about 30 or so points under his career average. He still has a WAR of 0.8 in 105 games. Extrapolating that performance over a 162-game period, it's 1.2. Look, is that good? No. But it's also not abysmal. And on top of that, Pagan's plate discipline stats are actually trending UPWARDS from last year. His line drive percentage stands at 23.7%, up 4% from 2010. His swinging strike rate is down, his IFFB rate is down, his contact percentages are all up. That BABIP and that UZR should not be that low. Look for Pagan to be at least a 3 WAR player if he gets everyday playing time, whether it's from the Mets or some other lucky organization. I just hope Sandy realizes the flukiness of statistics and retains Pagan, since, seriously, non-tendering him is ridiculous. By the way, this argument was trumpeted by Bobby Ojeda, who claimed that Pagan was not a winning player. It was at that moment I decided to regard Bobby O as a nincompoop.

7. The Mets should call up the Two Almost Ready Aces (Harvey and Familia).

Why this argument is wrong: Matt Harvey is 22 years old. He is a potential future ace of the staff. Does it make more sense to start his arbitration clock now, when the games are completely meaningless, or does it make more sense to let him prove himself at the higher levels of the minor leagues first? If you guessed the first one, please move to MetsBlog. Familia seems like he's been around forever, right? Guess what. He's 21. If you think 4 weeks of a 21 year old Jeurys Familia is absolutely critical to this New York Mets team, when instead we could have a really cheap 24-26 year old Jeurys Familia, not only should you get off Amazin' Avenue, you should go to Citi Field, request to speak to Sandy Alderson, and then have him take a copy of the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract and pummel you over the head with it until you come to your senses. I mean, haven't the Mets learned their lesson with calling guys up too early? Mejia, anyone? Lastings? F-Mart? You'd think if any fans had sense about this, it would be Mets fans. Have patience. We'll likely see both Matt and Jeurys sometime in 2012. 2013 at the latest.

6. The Mets shouldn't give Jose Reyes Carl Crawford money, so they won't resign him.

Why this argument is wrong: NO ONE is going to give Jose Reyes Carl Crawford money. They'll look at his injury history, his 2010, and realize that he's simply not the kind of player that warrants that kind of contract. Then again, Carl Crawford didn't warrant that type of contract either. Think about how good Beltran was for us, and then think about the fact that he was worth his contract almost exactly. That's how good you have to be to justify getting Carl Crawford money. So I guess this argument is sort of right. Then again, all it takes is for one Theo Epstein to break out the checkbook, hem, haw, and say "Hey, Jose, I know you like that Mets team, but we're offering you 100 million bucks to play on the best team in baseball". Then again, all it takes is for the Mets to resign Reyes is for Sandy to get meet with Theo and say "Hey, Theo, I know you like that Reyes guy, but if you sign him, we're gonna send a chainsaw-wielding Lucas Duda with instructions to murder Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury in their sleep".

5. Look at David Wright's splits. His OPS is near 1.100 when the Mets win and .600 when the Mets lose this year. He is clearly part of a winning team and the Mets need to spend more money to get more players so Wright can hit and the Mets can win. Or they could trade him to the Yankees cause the Yankees win all the time, making Wright a better player.

Why this argument is wrong: I can't even begin. Thank you, Dan, for adding a chuckle to my day.

4. The Mets are going to be broke! Them and the Dodgers, man. Two franchises crippled by greed and destruction. Or, in the specific case of the Dodgers, a crippling lack of 5 Clayton Kershaws and 11 Matt Kemps.

Why this argument is wrong: The sorry state of these organizations has nothing to do with finances. It has to do with Mr. Ned Colletti and Mr. Omar Minaya, two general managers who were united by the fact that they had some nice teams then later blew them up due to complete mismanagement. Think about it. If the Mets were winning, they'd no doubt be praised for their intestinal fortitude or something like that.

3. The Mets suffer from an acute lack of grit. Players like Paul Lo Duca, Endy Chavez, and Jose Valentin weren't stars, but carried the Mets to the 2006 title.

Why this argument is wrong: Hispanic players =/= gritty. Jeez, Dan. Will you ever learn? Maybe when he says "grit", he means defense, as two of the three players he mentioned were good at that. The other player he mentioned provided adequate offense for a catcher through a steady stream of singles. The other thing he means by "gritty" is players that put up between 3.0 and 3.1 fWAR in 2006. In which case, yes. (I'm not sure why he didn't mention Carlos Delgado!!! Perhaps Delgado had more than 65 RBI. Gritters aren't rib-eye steak men. They go for hamburgers.) The Mets could use them some of those. They could also use the 7.9 WAR put up by Carlos Beltran that year. *cries softly*. I might add that Carlos was one of Dan's least favorite players, and the day that Beltran was traded, Dan put up a small poster in his office that said "BELTRAN IS BELT-GONE". This phrase was followed by five exclamation points.

2. If the Mets don't sign Jose Reyes after this year, they should sign Jimmy Rollins to a contract. He's cheaper than Reyes and he's a winner, unlike Rey-ass.

Why this argument is wrong: DID YOU REALLY THINK THAT THIS WOULD BE NUMBER 10? REALLY?! REALLY? I'D RATHER BRING TRADE MATT HARVEY AND ZACK WHEELER FOR JEFF "FUCKING FRENCHY" FRANCOEUR'S SMILE AND PLAY THE SMILE AT SHORTSTOP. I'D RATHER PLAY BRIAN WILSON'S SMILE AT SHORTSTOP. OH AND BONUS "WHY THIS ARGUMENT IS WRONG"

WHY THIS ARGUMENT IS WRONG: If the Mets do not resign Reyes, I will be sad. The only substitute I would accept is if Sandy and the brain trust went to Pittsburgh, dug up the bones of Honus Wagner, cloned Wagner from the bones, inserted several data chips into Honus's brain and aged him 22 years so that he would play exactly like Wagner from 1902. Then we would trade the Honus Clonus for Jose.

1. Justin Turner is the everyday solution at second base for the Mets.

Why this argument is very, very, very, supremely, superbly wrong: Look, I hate to admit it. But we might not resign Jose Reyes due to lack of finances or something. But playing Turner at 2nd base everyday is just something we can't afford to do. When Daniel Murphy returns, Turner might be the 5th best in-house option at 2nd base for the Mets (after Murphy, Tejada, Havens, and Valdespin). He's actually played worse than Angel Pagan this season according to fWAR, and we know exactly what he is. A 1 to 1.5 WAR player who's already who he's going to be. Ruben Tejada, right now, has almost a .370 OBP. He's not going to turn 22 until October. His bat is only going to mature and he could slowly creep up on us as a 3-4 WAR player. Remember, his mediocre-looking UZR is due to his work at SS. His UZR/150 at second is 3.7, a full 18 runs over Turner's UZR/150. Reese Havens, when healthy, can swing the bat. Ditto for Murphy. Valdespin is unproven, yeah. But giving him a shot seems to be better than playing Turner, who made a living off squeaking singles through the hole between first and second. Unsurprisingly, teams have begun to cut this hole off and Turner has become an out machine. The thing about this argument, though, is it's not just wrong. It's dangerous. I have complete faith that Sandy won't non-tender Pagan. I have complete faith that he'll continue to pitch Dickey. If he plays Turner though, it's a complete mistake. And one that's very easy to make.

Justin Turner / Daniel Murphy / Lucas Duda

nerfan — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 15:03:34 -0000

Justin Turner / Daniel Murphy / Lucas Duda

With David Wright returning on Friday, what sort of lineup do you all expect Terry to run out? I'd like to see Murph play every day at first or second, with Duda getting most of the time at first against righties and Turner getting most of the time at second against lefties, but Murphy and Turner will probably be in there every day with Duda coming off the bench. Sorta marginalizes the Irish Hammer's utility potential, but meh.

Is Trading Reyes An Option?

nerfan — Tue, 10 May 2011 04:35:42 -0000

Look, I understand that trading Jose Reyes should NOT be the first, or second, or third option (for the health of us fans, at least).

But the idea gets floated around in the mainstream media so much that it isn't a ludicrous idea that Reyes will indeed be traded.

If Reyes is traded, the front office needs to get a fair market deal or better. First of all, we'd have to analyze a few things.

1. The Baseline

Assuming we keep Jose Reyes and let him go at the end of the season for two first-round draft picks, we stand to gain at least a little bit of value (although not as much as the loss of Reyes would cost the Mets).

The 2011 draft is particularly deep. However, sadly, the average (15th) pick that we would receive as compensation for Reyes would be worth about 2.38 WAR over the first six years of his career. The sandwich pick would be worth approximately 1.42 WAR over the first six years of his career. This is quite frankly an unacceptable return for Jose. It would be better to sign Reyes, pay him fair market value, and keep fans in the seats. If we're going to trade Reyes for anything, it must be prospects in accordance with Reyes's status as an elite shortstop.

Look, I understand that trading Jose Reyes should NOT be the first, or second, or third option (for the health of us fans, at least).

But the idea gets floated around in the mainstream media so much that it isn't a ludicrous idea that Reyes will indeed be traded.

If Reyes is traded, the front office needs to get a fair market deal or better. First of all, we'd have to analyze a few things.

1. The Baseline

2. The Teams

Pretty much every contender save the Rockies, Marlins, and (debatably) the Phillies would experience a significant upgrade playing Reyes at shortstop. However, we should focus on only the contenders with needs. These would be the Giants (current shortstop, Miguel Tejada/Mike Fontenot, -0.5 WAR/???), Kansas City (current shortstop, Alcides Escobar, 0.0 WAR), Cardinals (current shortstop, Ryan Theriot, 0.2 WAR), and Brewers (current "shortstop", Yuniesky Betancourt (-0.1 WAR). Currently, Jose Reyes leads all major league shortstops in WAR with 1.8. Extrapolating this performance over the entire season, Reyes would be worth another 6.76 wins over the rest of the year. Reyes is not likely to maintain this level of performance, but another 4-5 wins for Reyes is about what we should expect. For a team such as the San Francisco Giants, a boost of 4-5 wins (or more, based on the fact that the Giants are currently playing below-replacement level players at shortstop) would significantly increase their chance of making the playoffs, which would be worth an additional $28 million or more in revenue (numbers taken from Baseball Beyond The Numbers). Reyes would also sell additional tickets. Perhaps most importantly, these wins are going to be very hard to find at any other position besides shortstop for San Francisco and the Mets are the only team with a shortstop of Reyes' caliber potentially on the trading block. Given that Reyes has already been worth $8.1 million dollars, the 2/3 of a season that Reyes provides could have a market value of $35 million or more to the Giants. With this in mind, let's see what the Giants could possibly offer the Mets.

At the moment, the likely key piece in any Reyes deal would be Zach Wheeler, a hard-throwing 20 year old starter with three plus pitches and a good ground-ball ratio. The average top pitching prospect is worth around $14 million according to evaluations on minorleagueball.com. The Giants would have to offer significantly more than Wheeler to acquire Reyes, even for 2/3 of a season. The other interesting piece that the Giants have is shortstop Ehire Adrianza, who fields well but is pretty punchless at the plate - think Ruben Tejada with a better glove and a few more walks, or Chin-Lung Hu with a slightly better bat. He's probably a $2 million dollar piece at best, even if you like the bat more than most. The Giants don't have enough to offer, unless they offer Brandon Belt in some sort of three-way deal (the Mets already have a pretty decent first baseman).

We then move on to the Cardinals. The Cardinals would experience a similar boost in playoff probability to the Giants upon acquiring Reyes. However, they too have somewhat limited options. Their best hitting prospect, Zack Cox, plays third base and is literally untradeable as he was a 2010 draftee. Shelby Miller has been deemed practically untouchable by the Cardinals organization, but he'd be the one piece that would provide a suitable return for Reyes. Even if you value Miller at $20 million, a quite generous evaluation, the Cardinals would have to throw literally every pitcher in their organization not drafted in 2010 to provide enough value for Reyes. If the Mets are able to get Miller and 3 other mid-tier prospects, a deal should definitely be considered, especially considering that they can potentially resign Reyes after the 2011 season. Otherwise, the Cardinals do not look like the best option.

The Brewers are already depleted. Nothing they'd have to offer would interest the Mets.

This leaves the Royals. The Royals are an incredibly unlikely contender, but in the AL Central, the flukey Indians are currently on top and the rest of the division appears to be stinking up the joint. Also, unlike the rest of the teams that would be interested in an elite shortstop, the Royals have prospects. And a lot of them. Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer aren't as useful to the Mets and likely untouchable. However, with the tremendous Jeff "Wonderboy" Francouer in right field, the converted catcher Wil Myers appears to be the most expendable of the top three KC hitting prospects. Honestly, if the Mets could get Myers and one mid-tier prospects (Johnny Giavotella, Tim Melville... Chris Dwyer would be somewhat of a reach) for Reyes, they should pull the trigger. The Royals would be a good destination for Reyes for two reasons - one, the Royals are unlikely to resign Reyes after the season because of financial issues, and two - if the Royals are going to make any sort of run in 2011, Reyes would be a huge addition to them. Yes, the Royals are an extremely unlikely destination for Reyes, but they're the only ones with the chips to play the Reyes sweepstakes (again, barring a bizarre Belt deal). Also, Dayton Moore is stupid. Try to convince Moore that Reyes played for the Braves and he might throw up Moustakas, Myers, Danny Duffy, John Lamb, and Kaufmann Stadium, because none of them ever played for Atlanta.

3. Conclusion

Do not deal Reyes unless you can get an uberprospect in return. However, in these cases, 2/3 of a season of Reyes isn't quite as valuable as a player who has a high probability of being a key player in 2012 and beyond. Most teams besides the Cardinals and Royals do not have this kind of player. In the Cardinals case, they would have to give up more than this player, Shelby Miller, to reach the fair market value for Reyes. In the unlikely event that the Royals are buyers, they have more than enough players to package for Jose Reyes.

A sadder conclusion: Reyes' market value is also depressed because all the teams that are in dire need of a shortstop also have bad farm systems.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some Dayton Moore jokes to make.

What was DMGM's favorite period of American history? Atlantabellum.

What's DMGM's favorite class of drug? Atlantacids.

What's DMGM's favorite kind of singing? Scatlanta.

Series Preview - Mets at Washington, 4/26-4/28

nerfan — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 14:47:00 -0000

Nationals Lineup And Comments

With superstar third baseman Ryan Zimmerman on the disabled list, the Nationals have gone with a lineup that looks like

2B Danny Espinoza

CF Rick Ankiel

RF Jayson Werth

1B Adam LaRoche

LF Mike Morse

3B Jerry Hairston

C Ivan Rodriguez/Wilson Ramos

SS Ian Desmond

Thus far, Espinoza has been a pretty good leadoff hitter, with an OBP of .364. After that, though, the Nationals simply don't have a good hitter. The one skill that this lineup does seem to have is an ability to work counts - they rank 7th in the league in walks, led by LaRoche's 11. Save Ian Desmond, this lineup is also fairly devoid of speed.

As far as defense goes, the Nats are pretty much bad all around the field. Particularly sorry are Ian Desmond, Mike Morse, and "center fielder" Rick Ankiel. The bright spots - although Adam LaRoche is graying around the beard a bit, he's still a pretty good fielder around the bag. Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos figure to be decent as well.

Really, though, this lineup misses Ryan Zimmerman badly. As their only true offensive and defensive standout, Zimmerman was worth 7 wins last season. If Zimmerman misses any more time due to his oblique injury, the Nationals basically have no hope of contention. After the Mets pitching demolished the relatively strong-hitting Arizona Diamondbacks, the Washington Nationals lineup (which ranks 15th in OPS and features future managerial standout Alex Cora) should be fairly easy to deal with. Individual weaknesses of the Nationals hitters/pitchers will be discussed more in the game previews.

Tuesday, April 26

Chris Young vs. Jordan Zimmermann

Chris "Cy" Young comes into this game having beaten the tar out of the Nationals the last time he pitched on April 10. In that game, Young threw 7 innings and game up one hit, while walking two and striking out five. However, it's not all rosy for the giant righty. As detailed in this Eno Sarris post, Young simply doesn't have the fastball velocity to content. While never a true power pitcher, in Young's San Diego glory years he threw in the upper-80s and had the potential to hit 90+. Now, Young is throwing in the mid-80s.

The Nationals actually have pretty good wFB ratings. Young can still be a successful pitcher, but to do so he will need to set up his fastball with an average slider and his supposedly brand-new split-fingered changeup. Young's curve has been hammered in the past. With the changeup becoming a major part of Young's arsenal, the curveball should probably be scrapped all together or thrown out of the strike zone to set up the fastball or change.

Another note - not every park is Citi Field. This is good news for the bats in the Mets lineup but not for Young, who gives up a bunch of fly balls but somehow always manages to keep the ball in the park. Young can take solace in the fact that the Nats are not good at hitting.

Jordan Zimmermann, the projected starter for the Nationals, features 3 major pitches in his arsenal - a fastball and two breaking balls. He throws the fastball hard, topping out at around 94 or so while sitting in the low 90s comfortably. The fastball also tails a bit more than usual at the end, making Zimmermann's fastball a plus pitch. His breaking balls aren't terrific. Zimmerman's slider is fairly flat but has good velocity, resulting in some swings and misses. It's a much better pitch to right-handed batters, as he throws it down and away to get a lot of batters looking. This would be a problem for notorious strikeout artists Jason Bay and David Wright, but Zimmerman rarely throws the fastball away to righties, preferring instead to jam them inside. Bay and Wright are both much better hitters on fastballs in, so this works to the Mets advantage. Against left-handed batters, Zimmerman throws the slider down and in. As Keith Hernandez said on the broadcast yesterday: "that's a dangerous pitch to a lefty". If Zimmermann hangs the slider, left-handed bats like Ike Davis and Carlos Beltran could hammer that pitch. Overall, Zimmermann needs to work on location. That being said, Zimmerman's fastball velocity makes him dangerous.

Small sample sizes:

David Wright vs. Zimermannn (2-10, 5 K's)

Jose Reyes vs. Zimmermann (2-8, BB)

Ike Davis vs. Zimmerman (1-3, 2 BB, HR)

Nationals Lineup And Comments

With superstar third baseman Ryan Zimmerman on the disabled list, the Nationals have gone with a lineup that looks like

2B Danny Espinoza

CF Rick Ankiel

RF Jayson Werth

1B Adam LaRoche

LF Mike Morse

3B Jerry Hairston

C Ivan Rodriguez/Wilson Ramos

SS Ian Desmond

Tuesday, April 26

Chris Young vs. Jordan Zimmermann

Small sample sizes:

David Wright vs. Zimermannn (2-10, 5 K's)

Jose Reyes vs. Zimmermann (2-8, BB)

Ike Davis vs. Zimmerman (1-3, 2 BB, HR)

Wednesday, April 27

R.A. Dickey vs. Tom Gorzelanny

The Dickster has not been as good this year as he had been last year. As this post on Beyond The Box Score illustrates, he's simply been walking too many betters and using too much of the inferior slow knuckleball. However, I'm not putting too much stock into these "problems", as Dickey split a nail in the game in which he walked 5 batters (it should be noted that this game WAS against the Nationals). In a small sample size, Jayson Werth and bench-warmer Matt Stairs gave crushed him, but the rest of the Nationals have performed just okay against Dickey.

Nationals lefty Tom Gorzelanny has had a career of ups and downs. At one point, Tom was the ace of the Pirates. In 2007, he had 14 winzzz and put up a solid WAR of 2.9. The next year, his ERA was a devilish 6.66. In 2009, it was 5.55 (wow, that's interesting. 3 consecutive numbers for ERA twice in a row). Gorzelanny came back to respectability in 2010 with the Cubs. The oddest thing about Gorzelanny's career is that as his fastball velocity has dropped, he's actually been striking out more batters. He used to sit at 90 MPH or so but now he tops out at that and sits at 87.

Although Gorzelanny's ERA looks just mediocre, he's actually been even worse than that. His fastball is thrown almost exclusively upstairs in the strike zone, meaning a feast for Jason Bay. His new 2-seam fastball gets some swings and misses, but it's a pitch that once batters learn to recognize, they will take. It's also thrown up in the strike zone too much. Gorzelanny should be easy enough to deal with. He's somewhat gopher-prone as well.

Being patient with Gorzelanny and working the count also helps. His control is far from impeccable and he has little margin for error because his fastball isn't a plus.

Small Sample Sizes:

Reyes vs. Gorzelanny (2-12, 4 BB)

Wright vs. Gorzelanny (3-12, 3 BB, 3 2B)

Beltran vs. Gorzelanny (2-5, 2 HR, 2 BB)

Thursday, April 28

Chris Capuano vs. Livan Hernandez

Caps pitched very well against Houston his last time out, scattering 6 hits over 7 innings. He induced 12 swinging strikes and helped get the Mets back on track. Again, though, Capuano is a soft tosser. In his start against Houston, his velocity was actually down according to PitchFX - he was topping out at 88 and averaging a tick above 85 MPH. This is bad. Luckily, Capuano's fastball isn't all that bad even when slow, because it has a good amount of vertical movement and it gets set up very nicely by a strong changeup. Capuano is mostly a two-pitch pitcher. As with all changeup pitchers, Capuano is actually more effective against right-handed batters due to the pitch. Among Nats regulars, only Rick Ankiel and Adam LaRoche are left-handed batters, and both are prone to all lefties in general.

Meanwhile, the 73-year-old Livan Hernandez (Actually, he's only 36. Hard to believe, isn't it?) gets the start for the Nationals. After a career resurgence (a 3 WAR campaign ranks as his best since 2004) last year in Washington, Hernandez has done his best to prove that 2010 wasn't a fluke. Despite a fastball that travels 83.9 miles an hour (the theme of this series is soft-tossers, as only Jordan Zimmerman figures to throw harder than 90 miles an hour), Livan has posted a FIP of 3.79. How does he do it? Well, you can start off with his slow curve. Most slow curves are just for show, but Hernandez's is truly a strong pitch. He doesn't strike many batters out with it, but it DOES induce weak contact, which is basically the only thing saving Hernandez from flipping burgers. Hernandez throws 5 distinct pitches, all with varying speeds - an 84 MPH fastball, a pretty terrible 79 MPH slider, an 82 MPH sinking fastball with some ground-ball action, a 77 MPH changeup which he uses pretty much only against lefties, and the 70 MPH curveball. Honestly, though, Livan Hernandez is not a scary pitcher. If his control is the tiniest bit off, he gets shelled badly. You can pretty much guarantee that he won't challenge any batter inside (just take a look at the below image)

Fig 1.1 - Pitching inside is Livan's worst enemy.

Even if Hernandez flashes some good control, he's quite hittable. He strands a ton of baserunners and somehow has limited his HR/FB. His xFIP last year, 4.57, probably describes his true talent level better than his ERA or FIP. I have no clue how the guy does it. I guess he's fairly effective at hitting the corners. That's the only thing I can think of, right now. Remember when Livan was on the Mets? Good bad times.

Not-So Small Sample Sizes:

Reyes vs. El Duque's Broski: (.264/.291/.415 in 53 ABs)

Wright vs. The Unbreakable Right Arm (.267/.327/.600 with 4 homers in 45 ABs)

Beltran vs. The Luckiest Man On The Face Of xFIP (.323/.371/.581 with 4 XBH in 31 ABs)

Other Notes On The Nationals

...but that bullpen! Despite a mediocre-at-best rotation, the Nats have compiled quite the collection of arms in their bullpen. Their top three of Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Sean Burnett all figure to be quite effective, and LOOGY Doug Slaten is pretty decent. The front end of that bullpen features Chad Gaudin and Brian Broderick, who are very bad. If the Mets can get to Jordan Zimmerman early or run his pitch count up (which wouldn't be too difficult), the Nats could exhaust their good bullpen options quickly.

Keys To The Series

- win the games

- pitch well

- score more runs than the other team

Random Tidbits

- David Wright is 5 runs scored away from Darryl Strawberry's team record. Jose Reyes is 7 away. Both have about the same number of plate appearances. Wouldn't you think Jose has like a zillion more?

- Other records that Wright could crack this season - total bases, RBIs, K's (with 136 more, so I certainly hope not), walks (with 85 more, I certainly hope so), extra base hits, times on base, sacrifies flies,

- carlos beltran... i like his swing... ike davis... i'm so impressed with the strides he's been making...

Your Guide To Minor SNY Personalities

nerfan — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 19:38:11 -0000

(Bumped from FanPosts. --Eric)

---

Joe Beningo

I am not only Sammy Davis Jr. and Sal Fasano rolled into one, but a wise and learned bemoaner of the fortunes of the National League New York franchise.

Completely Made-Up Quote: The Mets - oh, the pain! Any blind optimism about the 2011 season has been lost in a sea of Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese and the rest of this god-awful rotation. What a disaster! And don't even look at the bullpen - oh god, the bullpen! RAISE THE WHITE FLAG, THROW IN THE TOWEL, TRAID THA CORE.

Scouting Report: Beningo, an avid user of Just For Men - Facial Hair but far too lazy to put it on his head, attempts to stir up the pot with starting points like "[Yankee Player X] is much better than [Mets Player Y]". My guess? He's a closeted Yankee fan. Beningo believes in extremely small sample sizes and often blows them up to the extreme. If he was living in the 1920s and was a sports commentator of some sort, he would likely have decried Ruth's 1922 season in which the Babe hit only 35 jacks and had a 182 OPS+. He would have written the Babe off as a flash in the pan. Meanwhile, he would have praised the "solid job" of washed-up Phil Douglas of the '22 Giants, who despite leading the league in ERA had 33 K's and 35 walks in 157 innings.

(Bumped from FanPosts. --Eric)

---

Joe Beningo

I am not only Sammy Davis Jr. and Sal Fasano rolled into one, but a wise and learned bemoaner of the fortunes of the National League New York franchise.

Adam Schein

My only notable skill is being able to string words together in a coherent sentence while yelling.

Completely Made-Up Quote: "HEY CARLIN MY GUY - ROBINSON CANO. MY GOAT - DEREK JETER. LOOK AT ME I'M THE LATEST MEMBER OF THE ANTI-JETER MEDIA BANDWAGON. I JUST DON'T THINK ANY TEAM CAN MATCH THE SUCCESS OF..." (quote chopped off due to mic explosion)

Scouting Report: Schein, quite possibly the only minor member member of a regional sports cable network to have an active hate page on Facebook, has inspired 69 Vikings fans to post stuff like "WHAT A DOUCHE" on his Fanpage's wall. Other than that, Schein is mostly harmless. Be sure to wear earmuffs when going up to battle against him, lest your eardrums be shattered by Schein politely asking his wife for a glass of water. The man knows absolutely nothing about either football or baseball, but he IS the odds-on favorite to win the Nobel Prize for Yelling. This man's so loud, Harper Lee wrote a book about him. It was called "To Shrill A Mockingbird" and the main character was Shout Finch. Adam Schein is like a symphony of 100 jackhammers in unison.

If you didn't get it already, Adam Schein is loud.

Chris Carlin

Here, we see Carlin ready to eat 3 pizzas - a relatively light snack.

Completely Made-Up Quote: (as host of Beer Money) "No offense, Alexi Panos - you're hot and all, but that Julie Donaldson was a f***ing BABE. Too bad I ate her."

Scouting Report: Chris Carlin, who is seemingly at once on every SNY show (not a fat joke, but it could be), is also among the most annoying of all SNY personalities - simply for the fact that he has none. At least we knew where Joe Beningo stands. His Twitter is neither funny nor useful. His game-calling for Rutgers basketball and football is generic. Simply put, Chris Carlin offers no insight that Vinny from down the street couldn't offer you. And considering Vinny is a 3-year old who's watched all of 2 professional sports games, Carlin's not doing too well in that department. To make Carlin more interesting, I decree his new thing to be making infantile puns off New York sports figures names. Examples: Mike Smellfrey, Carlos Smelltran, Brett Fartner, Russell Fartin, Chin-Lung Poo, Pedro Beatoff, Joba Chamberpot, and R.A. Dickey. Carlin will laugh every time he makes one of these jokes. With any luck, he'll be fired and replaced by anyone with more personality. My unborn child could probably use some money.

Kevin Burkhardt

Our old, beloved sideline reporter. Though he lacked boobs, Cotter never once suggested that we turn top hitting prospect Ike Davis into a pinch hitter because pinch hitters often come up in important situations. When SNY replaced Cotter, I had hopes that they would bring in someone like this to do sideline reporting. However...

instead, we got this guy. Kevin and Jerry were undoubtedly talking about Jenrry Mejia's role as a reliever. For the first time ever, a completely made-up conversation has been fictionally transcribed between Manuel and Burkhardt.

Completely Made Up Conversation:

"So, Jerry, what are your plans for the 2010 season," asked Burkhardt.

"Well," began Manuel. "I plan to adjust Jason Bay's swing to Citi Field. Right now, he'll hit too many home runs. That doesn't play well in Citi Field because it is literally impossible to homer in there. Then I will give 187 plate appearances to Alex Cora. I will manage the rest of the season by gut alone. If David Wright does not exercise 10 hours a day and then later fails to make one play, I will chide him with the phrase "That's poor, David, that's poor."

"That sounds okay," said Burkhardt. "But what about Jenrry Mejia? You should use him as a reliever. I want to win now, not 3 years from now."

"Gangsta," said Manuel.

And so it was decided.

Scouting Report: According to some reports, Kevin Burkhardt is wildly underpaid. According to some, he is the Anti-Christ due to his obvious use of highlights. Remember when I said that Chris Carlin's Twitter was bad? Have you ever read KB's Twitter? The man sounds like he's on Charlie Sheen. Unfortunately, the side effects of the Sheen drug (if that's still a topical reference) have not kicked in yet. However, Burkhardt is perhaps most famous for generating the AA meme "I want to do [x] now, not [y] years from now". Personally, I want to do this now, not 3 years from now.

In other news, Jeff Francoeur homered today.

nerfan — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 22:59:33 -0000

In other news, Jeff Francoeur homered today.

The Thinking Man's Extreme Preview To The 2011 Mets Season

nerfan — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 21:49:36 -0000

Bumped from FanPosts. --Eric

---

We have been laughed at - derided as a poorly-run franchise with overpaid, graying stars. Our franchise player, David Wright, is striking out a worrying amount of times. Jose Reyes is no longer the sparkplug he once was. Our outfield, save Angel Pagan, is declining at a rapid rate. And those are the stars. Our rotation is in shambles. Outside of nominal ace Mike Pelfrey, our top potential five are a mix of young, unproven players (Jon Niese, Dillon Gee), old and never great reclamation projects (Chris Capuano, Chris Young), and future 11-time Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey. The bullpen is a ragtag bunch of a girlfriend's-dad-beating closer, a 100 MPH flinging saint, and uhhhhh... this guy?

That being said, the Mets have a chance to contend this season.

With extremitude. More after the jump. Players in italics not likely to be on the Opening Day roster.

Bumped from FanPosts. --Eric

---

That being said, the Mets have a chance to contend this season.

With extremitude. More after the jump. Players in italics not likely to be on the Opening Day roster.

Catchers

Josh Thole, Ronny Paulino, Mike Nickeas

The expected lefty-righty platoon of Thole and Paulino should provide the Mets with at least average offensive and defensive catching for 2011. Considering that the average major league catcher batted .249/.319/.381, this shouldn't be too difficult to achieve. Thole has a career .309/.382/.409 line against right-handed pitchers, and while that's probably going to come down, even a 50 point dropoff in all three categories would mean that he's still an asset. Ronny Paulino has an even better line against lefties, but that's fueled by a .365 BABIP. Still, the Mets are going to be very solid at the catching position. Mike Nickeas offers replacement-level depth in the case that Thole gets hurt or Ronny eats some more "dietary pills" (aren't catchers SUPPOSED to be fat), but that's about it. He'll be Omir Santos, minus the epic t-shirt and slightly more epic homer off Jonathan Papelbon. Oh, and plus about 60 points of OBP.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: Josh Thole was called "T-hole" by high school friends. Ronny Paulino is actually from the Dominican Republic, not the Jersey Shore. Greatest replacement player in Mets history: Mike Nickeas or Mike DiFelice? The Replacements or REM? Which band had the highest HOR (hits over replacement)?

First Basemen

Ike Davis, Nick Evans, (Daniel Murphy?)

Ike should start ~150 games this year, with a chance to improve on his already strong rookie year statistics. Although it appeared Ike was slowing down towards the end of 2010, he hit like crazy in September and thus perhaps gave Mets fans unreasonable expectations for 2011. Ike is slow and has an average 16.2% LD, which makes his .321 BABIP look a tad high. His fielding is extremely good already, and he's got a great arm for a first baseman. Another 3-4 WAR campaign for Davis would be good news for Mets fans, though it might be seen as a disappointment for those who expected Ike to hit .330/.430/.530 like he did in September of last year. In case of emergency, a generic right-handed bench player awaits.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: Ike Davis has already put up 40% of his father's career WAR. In a 20-inning game, Ike can come in and chuck low-90s fastballs. Unlike Felipe Lopez, he will not be injured. Jeff Francoeur was the first player to pie Ike Davis... Was Dwight Eisenhower the greatest president of the 20th century? Has Ike Davis forced you to re-evaluate his presidency? Would you trade Ike Davis straight up for Daric Barton? Would you trade Ike Davis straight up for Richard Nixon? Who is Nick Evans??????

Second Basemen

Brad Emaus, Daniel Murphy, Luis Castillo, Ruben Tejada, Justin Turner

The underrated Emaus is my pick to start Opening Day, with Murphy being the top bat off the bench and a supersub at first, second, and potentially left and right. Emaus is from the same town as Derek Jeter and sadly does not have his starry brown eyes but probably has better range and on-base skills at this point. Second base will be a weak position for the Mets no matter how one slices it, however. If Turner or Murphy has a strong spring training, handing the opening day job to them would be the best idea. Murphy has the best hitting skills of the three and perhaps the most upside, while Turner plays a league-average second base at times, which is more than you could say of Murphy or Emaus. Since Emaus was taken in the Rule V draft, he'll likely be on the roster no matter what. Pluses for Turner and Emaus: they probably have the ability to play third, and giving Wright days off at this point in his career is probably a good idea.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: Brad Emaus has the least generic name out of the three leading second base candidates... and his name is Brad Emaus. Daniel Murphy shares a name with my ex-girlfriend's ex-boyfriend. Justin Turner might have the best chance of turning into an AA hero in the mold of Brian Stokes out of any player on the current Mets 40-man. In fact, any of the three could probably turn into a hero when the inevitable happens and the guy who wins the job on opening day sports a Frenchy-esque OBP after April. In which position will these hitters hit? Emaus is probably a decent #6 hitter given his OBP (though he'll probably hit seventh or eighth if he starts). Murphy is also probably a #6 hitter while Turner is pretty much guaranteed to hit 7th or 8th. In which spot would you hit Ruben Tejada? If Tejada was in the American League and CC Sabathia or Carlos Zambrano was pitching for your team, would you insert a DH for Tejada? Did I devote a single word to Luis Castillo in this mini-essay? At this point, would you trade Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez to the Knicks for Eddy Curry? Would Curry's status as the tallest player in baseball upset Chris Young?

Shortstops

Jose Reyes, Chin-Lung Hu

Jose Reyes still managed to be one of the better shortstops in the major leagues in 2010 despite a terrible OBP and an ill-advised stint batting 3rd (although if you believe the Book, he could probably hit 3rd in an optimized lineup if healthy). His defense, once an asset, has become pretty meh. However, his baserunning is still epic and the likely 1-2 combo of Reyes and Pagan will be the best baserunning combo in the league. Basically, we can't project Reyes very well at this point. A healthy, motivated Reyes could put up 5 WAR. He could also take a step backwards and continue regressing into 2005 form. We really don't know what we're getting with him. If he's healthy and plays well the 1st half of the season, the potential to turn him into a bunch of prospects is there. Reyes represents an upgrade at shortstop for 20 of the teams in the league, some of them contenders with strong farm systems. I really don't want to see Chin-Lung Hu play. He is just a really bad hitter. He'll probably make the opening day roster over Justin Turner, who's a better hitter. Having Hu play for your team means that you'll be a pinch-hitter down in the NL, which is a significant loss.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: Jose Reyes is the all-time leader in triples and stolen bases by a Met. What are the odds that Reyes steals more than 600 bases in his career (he's at 331 now)? What are the odds that Reyes becomes a Hall of Famer? Reyes' most comparable hitter on Baseball-Reference is Ray Chapman. What are the odds that Reyes is killed by an errant Carl Mays fastball? What are the odds that he wears a Wright-style helmet to prevent this? How many Hu's on First jokes will we have to endure from GKR? Chin-Lung Hu joins Asa Brainard as one of the only players to be named after an internal organ. Perhaps more impressively, he is likely going to be the only major league player ever to be named after two body parts, unless you count Bill Hands.

Third Basemen

David Wright, Brad Emaus, Zach Lutz

David Wright is an elite player, an all-star. He's not an MVP though, and he's supposed to be right in his peak. Increasingly, it's looking as if Wright's best years are behind him. Going into his age-28 season, Wright will probably take another step forward from the misery that was 2009 (HoJo isn't the hitting coach anymore). However, it's difficult to project more than 5 or so WAR from the face of the team, which is sad since I thought after 2008 he'd be consistently putting up Hall of Fame type seasons. Oh well. Wright is well on his way to becoming the best player in franchise history. Even if he has another 5-6 years of 2010-level production and then retires, he'll be the best. And we will think that he's a disappointment because he didn't make the Hall. Some encouraging signs for 2011: he appears to be working his ass off in early spring training and his defense is likely to improve from the abomination it was in 2010.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: David Wright is, right now, among the top 50 third basemen ever, probably even higher than that. How high does he have the chance to climb? Will he be a top-10 third baseman by the time his career is over? Who will wind up as the best player of these three: Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, or David Wright? Will Keith ever stop analyzing David's swing? Why is David so streaky? Would you like more or less streakers at Citi Field? What should David Wright's at-bat music be? I recommend God Only Knows (what happened to my K rate) or White Riot by the Clash, since it has two words in the title alone that could be misheard as Wright. In 3 years, will Wright or Ike Davis be the face of the team? David Wright has the best season of any NL 3B in the 2000s. Does Zach Lutz have a chance at winning the bench 3B/pinch hitting job out of spring training?

Left Field

Jason Bay, Scott Hairston, Lucas Duda

Bay is going to have a better season in 2011 than he did in 2010, if not because he's actually better but because he'll likely play more games. As much of a disappointment as Bay was in 2010, he still put up 1.4 WAR in less than 100 games, which in a full season would be like 2.5 WAR, which isn't quite worth his price tag but very decent. His batted-ball data actually got better from 2009 to 2010. The main problem is that his HR/FB% experienced a ridiculous decline. If Bay rebounds to hit 20 homers, drives in 90, and keeps up his OBP enough, most people will look at it as a fantastic season from an albatross-like player. I wouldn't be surprised, though - it's just an example of a profoundly unlucky hitter bouncing back with normal luck. Scott Hairston - I don't think much of Scott Hairston as anything but a pinch-hitter, and I'd rather have a young guy playing out there as Bay's replacement - Nick Evans or somebody like that. Lucas Duda is pretty much the same player as Zach Lutz. I'd like to see what Lutz can do at the major league level after Duda failed in his brief audition.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: Jason Bay's full name is Jason Raymond Bay, which means that his nickname could potentially be J-Ray Bay. This similarity to the official SBNation Devil Rays blog is noted. Is Jason Bay a future Devil Ray? Jason Bay is from British Columbia. The Bay-esque Matt Stairs is from Canada as well. Larry Walker is another great British Columbian player. Do all good players from British Columbia have last names that double as common nouns? Jason Bay and Oliver Perez were traded to the Pirates for Brian Giles. At this point, would you rather have what's remaining on Bay's contract or what's remaining on Perez's contract? Who is more likely to pitch an inning without a walk or hits batsman, Ollie or Bay? Who is more likely to pitch for the Mets next season? Should the Mets steer clear of signing North American players who are not from the United States?

Center Field

Should be Angel Pagan, will be Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran is playing this season on fairly healthy knees. He still had just below-average defense last year despite playing on terrible ones. At the very worst, he'll give us league-average production, and he still has star potential. So many people are willing to write Carlos Beltran off as a terrible contract and/or a faded former star. They are incredibly dumb. Beltran's contract is one of the greatest of all time. Of all time. Seriously, it's among the top-10 free agent contracts ever. Omar, for all his flaws, might have pulled off his greatest victory with this signing. A 3 WAR season from Beltran isn't too hard to imagine, and he still has a lot of upside. With all the players that are likely to improve from 2010 (Reyes, Wright, Bay, and Beltran), at least one or two has a shot at a legitimately outstanding season. Even the players that aren't likely to improve based purely on stats (Thole, Davis) are young and healthy enough. The only player that doesn't profile to improve is Angel Pagan, and he's a very, very good player who could slip a bit and still produce a lot. What I'm trying to say here is that the hitting core of the Mets should be above-average at every position besides second base, and even that might approach the average. Sure, the Mets have problems in every other respect of the game, but a healthy offense perhaps led by Beltran is incredibly feasible.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: In a fight, who would win - Carlos Beltran or Tony Bernazard? Both are dangerous with their shirts off. Is Carlos Beltran the greatest Carlos to play the game? His main competition is his former teammate Carlos Delgado. Carlos Beltran will join the 300/300 club with 20 homers and 11 stolen bases this season. At this point in his career, is he more likely to hit the 20 dingers or swipe the 11 bags? Carlos had a 1.054 OPS in the 2006 NLCS. This is more than 300 points below his postseason average. If Andre Dawson can get himself elected to the Hall of Fame, Carlos Beltran should be in there too. Carlos Beltran is among the 4 best position players in team history already, probably the 3rd best. What does this say about the quality of the Mets position players over the years? What does this say about Carlos Beltran? What does this say about Mike Lupica? If Mike Lupica was suddenly hit in the head with a cartoonish sledgehammer, would his IQ improve?

Right Field

Should be Carlos Beltran, will be Angel Pagan

Let's just step back and appreciate Angel Pagan for a second. The man will turn 30 next season (although it's technically his age-29 season). Up until 2010, his career had been filled with half-seasons and injuries. He had a reputation for making boneheaded plays on the bases and in the field. Despite this, he turned out to be a pretty damned good player, one of the top-10 in the National League and one of the best glove men and baserunners in the game. This guy was acquired for a big pile of nothing from the Cubs, too. No matter who fills center and right field, Omar Minaya can look upon what he's done for those two positions with pride. Unless, of course, Pagan gets hurt and Fernando "I could have been traded for someone really good at some point" Martinez plays right in his absence. Then, Minaya will look upon right and weep. Pagan won't be as good in 2011 as he was in 2010 - that's okay, he'll be a near-elite player and a large contributor to a Mets playoff run anyway.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: Angel Pagan has one of the best names in baseball. Angel Pagan is nicknamed Crazy Horse. Crazy Horse was one of the leaders at the Battle of Little Bighorn, in which Sitting Bull defeated George Custer. George Custer's second in command was named Marcus Reno. Reno was the birthplace of John Gamble (an apt surname if there ever was one). Gamble played with Lerrin LeGrow, who played with Steve Stone. Pagan's town is named after the Stones River. Mind blown? Is Angel Pagan the best player on the Mets? Which Mets outfielder will be the most valuable?

Starting Pitchers

Mike Pelfrey, RA Dickey, Jon Niese, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee/Chris Young (both will likely make the team, one will pitch in long relief), Oliver Perez, Johan Santana

So Mike Pelfrey's Mike Pelfrey. We know what he's going to give us - I'm expecting an ERA somewhere around 4 with some nice eaten innings. And while Dillon Gee is still young and unproven, I'm expecting an ERA somewhere around 5 with some nice eaten innings. The wild cards are the other 4 candidates - Dickey the Penetrating, Niese the Young, Chris Young the Large, and Chris Capuano the Oft-Injured (let's hope that Alderson has the good sense not to start Jenrry the Unready). Dickey has the best chance to be great - Beyond the Box Score has a terrific series of articles on knuckleballers that basically proclaimed Dickey as the best in the business today. His success looks to be fairly repeatable and no one will be surprised if Dickey winds up as the ace of the Mets. Jon Niese struggled in the late going after he should have been shut down. However, a strong K rate and a good FIP (4.10) make Niese the most likely member of the 2010 rotation to break out. Fangraphs projects a 3.3 WAR and 183 innings from the lefty - that's probably a little optimistic, but not out of reach. Even before the return of Santana, the Mets top 3 should be decent. They're no Halladay, Hamels, and Lee (Oswalt?), but three 3 WAR guys at the top of the rotation is better than some people get. My prediction is that the Mets will have a hard time defining just who their ace is. Collins seems to think Pelfrey is the ace, but realistically any one of these three could wind up being the best pitcher. The problem is all are probably more #3 types on a good team or #2 on a bad team than #1 types. But they're not really the problem with the rotation. No, the problem is the back end. Chris Young is that in name only - he's 32 and with an extensive injury history, likely to get broken easily and without good stuff anymore. He probably fits in better in long relief at this point, but he'll be the frontrunner for the #5 slot. Capuano is a little better than Young. His stats in 2010 were promising and if he could repeat those over a full season, he would make a solid #4. If Young and Capuano go down, though (which one of them WILL), there's going to be no one to replace them (LOLlie is not an option). The Mets have very little starting pitching depth and might be tempted to put Jennry in the rotation again. If Santana progresses well, he will be able to replace one of them by mid-summer. Honestly, I don't see this rotation put together putting up much more than 10 WAR, which probably isn't enough to contend. To win, the Mets are going to have to outslug the other team, and pray for the swift and healthy return of Johan Santana.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: Will Johan Santana even make it to 200 career wins (he has 133 now)? Do you think the Mets infield defense will be good enough to prop up Mike Pelfrey and turn him into a pretty good pitcher? Who will be better in 2011, R.A. Dickey or Roy Halladay? If you answered Halladay, are you [bleep]in kidding me? Chris Capuano went to Duke, Chris Young went to Princeton. Will Mike Pelfrey tire of their intellectual discussions? Will Oliver Perez pitch a single inning for the Mets in 2011? Will Oliver Perez throw a pitch over 85 miles per hour in spring training? Oliver Perez is comically bad. Would you sign Carlos Beltran to his deal if it meant you had to sign Ollie to his deal as well? Did you know: if Oliver Perez puts up 8 WAR this season his contract still will not be worth it? Will Jennry Meija be a part of the rotation by year's end? John Maine's career is hanging by a thread at this point. Will he throw a major league pitch again? Why did Livan Hernandez pitch well for the Nationals last year but not for us? Hate him, hate him, hate him.

Relief Pitching

Francisco Rodriguez (CL), Bobby Parnell, DJ Carrasco, Pat Misch, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta, Taylor Buchholz, Taylor Tankersley, Pedro Beato, Ryota Igarashi

This bullpen is going to be bad, even though K-Rod's trends weren't terrible last year, and Bobby Parnell is absolutely a future shutdown reliever in the future. The Mets really only have one goal here - to stop K-Rod's vest from vesting. They can do any number of things - hope he implodes once or twice and install Parnell as a closer, install Parnell as closer based on his fastball, use a "closer by committee" scenario in which Tim Byrdak is brought in to face every lefthanded hitter, or have D.J. Carrasco finish every possible game that isn't a 1-run scenario. K-Rod is a very good reliever, one of the best in the game. But he's not worth $17.5 million, not by a long shot. Not when Parnell is waiting in the wings. Outside of Frankie, Parnell, and Carrasco, the bullpen is going to be replacement-level. Misch is a decent (read: 4.50 ERA) long reliever at best, Buchholz would be good if he changed his first name to Clay and suddenly gained all of his namesake's talent, Byrdak is 39 and only good against lefies, and Manny Acosta's AA nickname is the Acostalypse. Of these guys, Acosta is probably the best. I wouldn't guarantee spots in the 'pen to anyone but Rodriguez and Parnell, though. I'd like to see how the competition shapes up for the 4 bullpen "positions"

7th inning man: Acosta, Carrasco, Buchholz, Beato

Mop-up: Acosta, Carrasco, Buchholz, Beato, Igarashi

Long-relief: Misch, Gee, Young

LOOGY: Byrdak, Tankersley, Fossum, O'Connor, Perez?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!??

God, I miss when Hisanori Takahashi could do all these things and start too. This bullpen should be juuust above replacement level.

Extreme Facts/Thinking Questions: The Phillies had a reality TV series for their bullpen. Should we have one for ours? Titles: Pitchin' Poorly, Mota's Operandi (2007 edition)? LOOGY Wars could be the title of the most anticipated competition. Bobby Parnell throws as hard as Stephen Strasburg. Too bad he doesn't have Strasburg's other stuff. If Bobby Parnell's grandma fought Betty White, who would win? Is D.J. Carrasco better than DJ AM? Is Ryota Igarashi a better pitcher than Tsuyoshi Shinjo? Is the entire Mets bullpen put together as fat as Dennys Reyes? Who is faster - Dennys Reyes times 3 or Jose Reyes? The Mets 'pen last year actually wasn't all that bad. Too bad Pedro Feliciano is gone and the 54 amazing innings contributed by Elmer Dessens are not going to be replaced (especially not by Elmer Dessens). On the plus side, Fernando Nieve will not be pitching for the 2011 Mets. Remember that start against the Brewers? It was Perez-esque in terms of baditude. Speaking of baditude, has anyone heard the Weezer album Raditude? It's about 1,000,000 times worse than the Blue Album.

Conclusion

The Mets are really not a bad team. I predict around 85 wins with an outside shot at the wild card. Unlike last year's team, this is going to be primarily a hitting team with a weak rotation and bullpen. Sure, this might be a transition year, but this is going to be a fun, young team to watch and at least one player is going to have a breakout or outstanding season. This is as opposed to the machine-like Phillies, who are old, lame, vastly overpaid, annoying, all four, or Roy Halladay, who's pretty cool.

Also, R.A. Dickey for Cy Young '11, President '12. He will become the first sitting president to win an MVP and a Cy Young in the same season (Martin Van Buren slugged his way to the 1838 MVP).

The New Worst Sportswriter In The World

nerfan — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 22:40:33 -0000

Ladies and gentleman, I'd like you to meet Danny Knobler, senior writer for CBSSports.com. Knobler is an unqualified idiot. His published Hall of Fame ballot consisted solely of Roberto Alomar and Jack Morris. He left off everyone who he thought may have once touched steroids once in their career. Meanwhile, he lets in Alomar, who has been suspected of spreading HIV/AIDS to numerous women. Oops. The Jack Morris vote is fine by me if you're an EXTREMELY big-hall kind of guy, but it seems as if Knobler is not. The saddest thing is that his ballot wasn't even the stupidest thing that Knobler posted this month. That would be this little gem of an article, which I'll attempt to do an FJM-style takedown of. Since I don't have too much experience doing this type of thing, feel free to critique extensively.

If he's what we think he is, Werth may be worthless in D.C.

by Danny "Morris '11" Knobler

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- You're a last-place team, year after year. You're coming off a 93-loss season, which fits, because you've averaged 93 losses a year for every year in your current city.

I am? Okay. If this is the case, I am the Washington Nationals. An organization who holds the future of Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmermann, and Drew Storen. So, a projected tremendous 1-2 punch in both the lineup and the rotation and a future shutdown closer with filthy stuff. Sure, I may have personally lost 93 games last year, but it's not like I'm never going to contend again ever.

You need to prove you're not a joke. You need to show that you're serious.

I thought I did that by drafting Strasburg and Harper to megadeals even though I could have gone the Pirates route and signed some guy like Brad Lincoln instead... no? Tell me what to do, Danny. Maybe I should find more guys who "pitch to the score" like Jack Morris. Actually, no, wait. Tell me what to do.

You need to find a big-time free agent willing to listen to you, and even then you need to radically overpay.

I choose you, Carl Crawford! Since I need to radically overpay, I will pay you $35 million per year for the next 10 years. I remember a couple of years ago we offered Mark Teixeira like $652 million over 23 years, but he wouldn't listen to us.

So, yeah, from that standpoint, the Nationals signing Jayson Werth makes perfect sense. Even the contract numbers -- seven years, $126 million -- makes sense.

I thought you said I had to radically overpay... if the numbers make sense how am I overpaying? Enlighten me: I don't even know the error of my own ways!

As long as Werth isn't what we all think he is.

I think he's among the most talented right-handed hitters in the National League, and he's got an OPS+ of 131 over the past 4 years. He plays pretty good defense, and he's put up an average of 5 WAR the past three years. He should be a decent bet to put up close to that next year, and, with a normal decline rate, he should be a decent hitter for years to come because of his plus plate discipline and power, which should survive even if his batting average drops off a little, right? He's also the second best player on his own team *looks at third base*.

As long as he doesn't need to be in the middle of a lineup as talented as the one he's leaving behind in Philadelphia, and as long as he's capable of being as good as he was with the Phillies when he's the guy everyone's watching.

Why does everyone insist that Philly's lineup is so good? Put it this way - Jayson Werth WAS the best hitter on the Phillies, and he WON'T be on the Nationals. Next year, the Phillies lineup will be old and decrepit, and bereft of their best hitter. His name is Jayson Werth, and he will be on the Nationals. Also, it is a proven fact that the player everybody will be watching on the Washington Nationals will be playing for a single-A team. That would be Bryce Harper. The other guy people are going to watch is Stephen Strasburg. Werth is a proven commodity. No one gives a flying crap about Jayson Werth compared to Bryce Harper, because when Harper's career is done he will have amassed 916 homers, 3024 rib-eye steaks, 1633 stolen bases, 492 pitching wins, and 6300 strikeouts. Stephen Strasburg will still pitch well enough to win 11 Cy Youngs.

Agent Scott Boras says this is like the Tigers signing Pudge Rodriguez seven years ago -- when they were coming off 119 losses, and he was coming off a World Series win -- or Magglio Ordonez six years ago. Nice comparison, especially since the Tigers ended up in the 2006 World Series in large part because of those two deals.

So an agent makes a reference to a similar, successful deal in order to get the best deal possible for his client? OH THE BLASPHEMY. AGENTS SHOULD WORK WITH ONLY 3 RUBBER BANDS AND A SCIENTIFIC CALCULATOR.

Rizzo: So, Scott, I want to pay Jayson Werth league minimum for the next 10 years with an team opt-out clause after any year.

Scott: I have a mystery bidder offering me $500k per year for 8 years, with no opt-out contract.

Rizzo: Violation! No mystery bidders! And is that a graphing calculator?!?!?!?

But Rodriguez was the guy everyone watched in both Texas and Florida. He was a No. 3 hitter. Ordonez hit cleanup year after year with the White Sox.

Sure, Pudge batted third for the 2003 Marlins. In 2002, he accrued a TOTAL of 4 at-bats in the 3-hole. Meanwhile, he hit mostly 2nd, 5th, and 6th. Some guy named Alex Rodriguez hit 3rd on that team. I'm pretty sure that's the guy who people were watching (big free-agent contract, one of the best players in baseball, better than Ivan Rodriguez). And sure, Ordonez hit cleanup most years. That's because his team was bereft of a "known-RBI" producer like Ryan Howard, who is actually a worse hitter than Jayson Werth.

Jayson Werth has hit cleanup seven times in his eight-year career.

There was another guy who almost never hit cleanup most years. His name was Babe Ruth. Also, where a player bats has no effect on how he produces. Unless you're referring to something else entirely...

"He's ready for the challenge of being the guy in the lineup," Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said.

He'd better be.

Not only was he the guy in the lineup last year, he also has Ryan Wallace Zimmerman on his team, who is an even better player than him.

There needs to be a new stat that runs from 0-1 called "GLORG" (Guy in Lineup over Replacement Guy). Role-players like David Eckstein have extremely low GLORG. There have been 4 incidents of 1 (a perfect) GLORG in history - Honus Wagner in 1908, Wally Berger in 1935 (made even more impressive by the fact that Babe Ruth was on his team), Barry Bonds in 2003, and Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. I guarantee you Jayson Werth is not going to have a 1 GLORG next year, because Ryan Zimmerman is on his team.

The word on Werth has always been the opposite, that he's a greatly talented player who can be a big contributor on a winning team, as he was the last four years with the Phillies. And that he's best on a team where he's not the focal point.

He isn't the focal point on this team either, you incredible dummy. Also, he was the best player on the Phillies (position player, that is) last year, and everyone thought they were going to the World Series. Also, a greatly talented player who can be a big contributor on a winning team is an important kind of player to have if you're going to be on a winning team. One guy who filled that role was Albert Pujols when the Cardinals won the World Series.

That doesn't make him bad. But if it's true, it makes him a bad fit for the Nationals right now.

"I don't think he has to be the centerpiece," manager Jim Riggleman insisted Sunday. "We've got Ryan Zimmerman. We're going to get Stephen Strasburg back eventually. We've got a few centerpieces."

OH LOOK A VOICE OF REASON. What do you say to this, you Jack Morris-lovin', Bert Blyleven-hatin' SOB?

But they've only got one guy who signed for $126 million.

Hmm. The two MVPs of baseball last year were Josh Hamilton and Joey Votto. Neither are signed to $126 million contracts. This leads me to believe that getting signed to a megacontract sadly does not increase your GLORP. Just ask Barry Zito, whose GRORP (the pitching equivalent of GLORP) stands at an incredibly low -0.42 because of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Last year, the major league leaders in GLORP and GRORP were Adrian Gonzalez and CC Sabathia. How will Adrian Gonzalez's perfomance be affected by a decrease in GLORP? Who cares!

It's a bigger total contract than the one his old teammate Ryan Howard signed with the Phillies last summer (although less per year). It's a bigger contract than the one Matt Holliday signed last winter with the Cardinals.

Howard is incredibly overpaid. The Cardinals got a good deal from Holliday, I think. And wait, what was your argument again? That Werth was overpaid or his projected GLORP would be too low?

It's the same number Barry Zito once got from the Giants, and what Vernon Wells once got from the Blue Jays.

How does bringing up Barry Zito in an article about a 31-year-old outfielder make any sense at all? His contract has been a bust, anyone with reasonable baseball sense and knowledge of FIP could tell you it was going to be a bust. The man threw an 85 mile an hour fastball and walked a ton of batters, for god's sake.

That doesn't mean it will be as bad a contract as those two have proven to be. It does mean Werth will have every eye on him from the first day of spring training through next year.

No one gives a crap about Vernon Wells. Barry Zito will be lucky to land the #5 job next year, and no one cares, because his team won the World Series last year. National coverage of Wells did not increase significantly because he played poorly. This is crazy talk. I think the player who people will be concentrating on is Bryce Harper, who is only the most hyped prospect in baseball.

If he homers on opening day, that's the story. If he strikes out three times on opening day, that's the story.

The homering, sure. If he strikes out 3 times but Mike Morse cracks a walkoff 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th, I'm pretty sure that's the story. If he strikes out 3 times in a 4-2 Nationals loss where he comes up with the bases loaded every time and fails to drive in any runs, that's the story. But I've heard that same story before with players making significantly less than Werth does.

And if he goes two months with a .239 batting average and just 19 home runs in 54 games, as he did in one stretch last year with the Phillies, then that's a huge story.

Now it gets juicy... Werth, with JUST 19 home runs in 54 games, would hit exactly 57 in a normal 162-game season. I'd take a .240 average if it game with that many homers. Also, I'm pretty sure this never happened. I just took a look at his splits on baseball reference and his lowest batting average in any single month was .271 in May. In 2009, it was .248 in May. Maybe he's referring to some random stretch- but DAMN, 19 homers in 54 games? Combined with Werth's on-base ability, I'm pretty sure that the Nats would be happy with that sort of production, seeing as it would be sort of like Adam Dunn but with better defense and even better power production.

The Nationals had to take a chance. Had to make a splash. Had to find a guy willing to even entertain their pitch, willing to be the first big free-agent signing, willing to be their potential Pudge, their may-be-Magglio.

Am I the only one who realizes that the Pudge signing was an awful deal? He had one good season then put up like 2 WAR a year.

They needed to change the story from all the losing, and they really wanted to change the story this week after their fan base got far too upset that Adam Dunn left to sign with the White Sox.

Their story hasn't been losing, it has been Strasburg and Harper. What planet do you live on? You have to be on Mars to not realize that Strasburg and Harper are literally the only things that people care about on the Nationals. Their fans don't expect them to win this year, with Werth, and they shouldn't, their pitching staff is terrible.

The Nats had to make a splash, but it's hard to get away from the thought this was the wrong splash -- the wrong guy for the Nat's particular situation.

Who was the right guy, Carl Crawford? He wants to win, so he went to Boston. Also, the two have nearly identical combined WAR over the past 3 seasons, and Crawford would likely need even more money to play for the Nationals. Lee would have been nice, but he obviously wants to pitch for a contender. By getting Werth, they're getting a bat that can help them as they attempt to contend in 2012. The free agent market is going to be terrible next year, and Werth was the only impact BAT available.

It's hard to get away from the idea that this is the wrong deal for Werth, even if it was the most money he was going to get.

True that. I'm getting sick of your one-sentence paragraphs. I didn't even have to chop them up... these are literally the paragraph lengths he uses.

It's easy to think this isn't Pudge and Magglio revisited, but maybe more like Alfonso Soriano going to the Cubs in 2006.

Sure, Soriano's contract looks bad now, but he put up 7 WAR when the Cubs were making their run in 2007. In three of the last four seasons, he's put up at least 3 WAR. Also, Pudge produced MUCH less value than Soriano did (so far). His contract wasn't as big, but still. The man was not that good a baseball player, yet you seem to have the fondest memories of him being the greatest Detroit player in the world.

Would Werth have been better off with the Red Sox, where he may have fit in just the way he did with the Phillies? We'll never know.

Alright. You're playing what-ifs. Remind me what your argument is again?

What we do know is what we already strongly suspected, which is that this is a great time to be a free agent. Plenty of teams have money to spend, and there aren't enough premier free agents to spend it on.

Yeah, and teams counteract that. As the price of each win gets higher, GMs will spend more per win. Jayson Werth is an example of this. Again... please remind me?

The Werth contract is stunningly huge. An American League general manager nearly fell over when I told him the terms.

But the money isn't really the problem here. It was going to take stunning money if the last-place Nationals were going to sign a top free agent.

Alright, your points are

1) Jayson Werth is making a lot of money - 2) The money is not the problem - 3) Jayson Werth is a top free agent and that takes a lot of money

The issue isn't $126 million. The issue is Jayson Werth.

4) The money is not the problem - 5) Jayson Werth is a problem

Read that again. Jayson Werth is a problem. Having Jayson Werth, a top tier free agent, who makes a lot of money, is a problem. The Nationals have the money to spend. They chose to spend it instead of letting it go to waste for 4-5 wins the next few years. Again, Jayson Werth is probably being slightly overpaid. So just flat out state that instead of saying that he's a Craig Counsell/Alex Cora-type role player.

Is he really the right guy to turn around a franchise?

Nah, but Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Bryce Harper can. Y'know, three guys who play for this freakin' franchise. Ryan Zimmerman, who has extensive experience being the best player on his own team.

Only if he's not what we all think he is.

Hold on. I thought I was the Washington Nationals. And I think he's a pretty damn good player.

We Want The Mansion

nerfan — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 18:19:01 -0000

Next year we will have faded deep into obscurity. We will have died and no one will have noticed, just like Gavin Brown, former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Sydney. Our farm system is as barren as Queen Mary I of England (in this analogy, Mary, Queen of Scots is our rival, she is played by the Yankees. Also, the Yankees have more Jesus in their farm system. The religious implications of such a statement (protestants v. catholics) can be discussed in the comments).

At any rate, we have too many young players and not enough solid experienced veterans like Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. To remedy this I propose we dig into our farm system and trade some guys

CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis, RHP Francisco Rodriguez, and RHP Manny Acosta to the Blue Jays for OF Dewayne Wise

Reasoning explained after the break

At any rate, we have too many young players and not enough solid experienced veterans like Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. To remedy this I propose we dig into our farm system and trade some guys

CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis, RHP Francisco Rodriguez, and RHP Manny Acosta to the Blue Jays for OF Dewayne Wise

Reasoning explained after the break

Dewayne "That Guy Who Made A Good Catch To Save, Oh, Yeah, A Perfect Game" Wise is a fast, athletic, speedy, fast burner with a set of wheels who can really fly. He is just hitting his peak at the age of 32 and can be converted to second base. Meanwhile, we give up nothing of value in Quirky Kirk, K-Roddibemcdowell, and Manny Acosta, who is probably the fat kid from Modern Family.

Another deal I would make is for former shortstop Neifi Perez. We would sign Neifi to a 3-year/36M contract, thus, we would have two Perezes signed to 3 year contracts. This will help guard Oliver because his contract is now only 38% worse then the next contract in baseball. Neifi can be slotted into a backup role for this season and then he will start after the departure of Jose Reyes to Philadelphia.

A third deal I would make is to shore up the bullpen. Remember in 2006 we had a pretty good bullpen with Guillermo Mota, Aaron Heilman, and Heath Bell? I would bring back Heilman and Mota with $4M contracts and trade some expendable pieces like Cesar Puello, Josh Thole, and perhaps Cory Vaughn as a throw in for Bell. Oh yeah and we should probably sweeten the deal with a #4-5 starter like Mike Pelfrey.

Still this team suffers from a lack of hitting. Big deal. I will go the unorthodox route and sign Steve Trachsel to a deal. Trachsel knows how to win ballgames and can still throw a good changeup. We should also sign Jamie Moyer to a 3 year contract because the man never gets old and he is a good player who throws strikes on a consistent basis. However, we do not have enough room in the rotation for all these aces (Trachsel, Moyer, Santana, Niese, Dickey, Gee), so we need to trade one of them. Niese reminds me of a young Sandy Koufax and Santana is injured so the only logical choice is Dickey. Trading Dickey for a package of players including Carlos Lee is probably the right answer. He has the power to fill Citi Field with gargantuan blasts similar to that of when aliens from the planet Gargulon 4 carved volcanoes into the Earth.

So right now our lineup is probably something like

SS Neifi Perez / 2B Dewayne Wise / CF Luis Castillo / 1B Ike Davis / 3B David Wright / RF Fernando Martinez / C Ronny Paulino / LF Jason Bay / Pitcher

We have no room on our team for scrubs like Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan who don't visit army centers and make too much money a year according the Mike Lupica, so I agree with him so we should probably trade Beltran and Pagan to some non-contending team like the Oakland A's for Dallas Braden, who doesn't like A-Rod and pitched a perfect game once. Now our rotation is so loaded it hurts, just think about it

Blood On The Trax = Halladay

Dallas "Texas" Braden = Lee

Niese = Oswalt

Gee = Oswalt also

Moyer = Hamels

But our hitting is obviously weak. To counteract this we should trade SS Wilmer Flores and RHP Jennry Mejia to KC for RF Jeff Francoeur. Wilmer and Jennry "The Ninth" Mejia will never be as good as Albert Pujols and Pedro Martinez so why even bother. Francoeur is cheap and provides a solid arm in RF. Contrary to popular belief we will not actually be playing him but cutting him up and grafting his arm on to Jason Bay, his smile on to Dillon Gee, and his plate discipline on to Shane Victorino.

Good lord this team is stacked is all I can say. What could make it better?

Oh right, we can sign Manny Ramirez and have him play second base.

Poll

Do you want the mansion or the condo?

Mansion

17 votes

Condo

7 votes

Cardboard Box

19 votes

Francoeur's Digs

14 votes

57 votes | Poll has closed

Available 2011 Free Agent Analysis - Catchers and 1st Basemen

nerfan — Sun, 07 Nov 2010 21:19:41 -0000

Just thought it would be a nice thing to have. All information contained after the jump, along with analysis. Let me know if I missed anyone.

I've always liked the grade A-F system. My grades are fairly arbitrary, but grade A free agents roughly correspond to the top 10-15 or so, grade B the next 20, grade C the next 20. Grades D-F are backup players and other assorted oddities who should not be getting playing time.

Just thought it would be a nice thing to have. All information contained after the jump, along with analysis. Let me know if I missed anyone.

Catchers

This year's catcher pool is not the strongest. Victor Martinez is clearly the cream of the crop. John Buck had a very nice season last year, but his hilarious BB/K ratio of 16/111 does not look pretty for the future. He will be overpaid. Ramon Hernandez showed that he still had a little left last year - he'll be 35 but put up 2.6 WAR in just 352 plate appearances. He'll get a chance to start somewhere, given the lack of names on this list. The rest of the names are no better than replacement level at best - the early-season Mets duo of Barajas and Blanco showed their age as the season wore on. The two other catchers that register a modicum of interest are David Ross, who was stuck behind Brian McCann in Atlanta despite producing more than solid numbers, and noted annoyance A.J. Pierzynski. Jason Varitek has nothing left. I'd be surprised if he plays next season.

Rod Barajas - C-
Josh Bard - D
Henry Blanco - D
John Buck - C
Ramon Hernandez - B-
Gerald Laird - D+
Victor Martinez - A-
Chad Moeller - F
Jose Molina - D+
A.J. Pierzynski - C+
David Ross - B
Yorvit Torrealba - C+
Matt Treanor - D+
Jason Varitek - D-

Verdict for the Mets: Inhouse options will be explored first. Josh Thole will get a chance to become a starter. Sandy might be able to work out a trade for Mike Napoli with Thole as a backup, but we'll more likely see a filler catcher like Jose Molina, Mike Nickeas, Omir Santos, or Yorvit Torrealba getting playing time behind Thole. David Ross is probably the 2nd best name out on this market - hopefully, the Mets can pick him up for relatively little. More likely, we'll see him get a chance to start in Detroit, Boston, or another catching-starved franchise.

First Basemen

The first baseman pool can be condensed into two groups - the Dunn group, which has sparse pickings (forgive the shameless Pokemon joke), and the used-to-be-decent-to-good veteran group. The top picks in the former group include Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko. Despite world-class bad fielding, Konerko smashed his way to an OPS of nearly 1.000 and put up enviable batting numbers. The top picks in the second are Jim Thome, who can probably no longer play first base, and a coalition of Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Aubrey Huff, and Troy Glaus. Glaus, the weakest of these five, was very good in 2008 with St. Louis, but has put up a collective 0.2 WAR in the last two seasons. Carlos Pena has suffered an extremely predictable decline - he had "old-player" skills that usually don't age well. Still, his BABIP was a ridiculously low .222 last season. Even with a below-average line drive rate, that should come up. Derrek Lee is still clearly a starter and should be expected to put up at least 2.5 or 3 WAR, which should fetch a decent amount of money in this market. Aubrey Huff was absolutely miserable in 2009, but put up 5.7 WAR in 2010. He's probably the #3 option in this relatively strong class. Lance Berkman's history is hard to ignore - he's never had a bad season and he'll start somewhere. With free agents as top as these and a relative lack of starting positions, it's hard to imagine Andy LaRoche, Russ Branyan, or Lyle Overbay generating too much interest. Put simply, good first basemen are really easy to find. Elite first basemen are terrific, but there isn't really a single elite first baseman in this crowd.

Lance Berkman - B
Russell Branyan - C-
Adam Dunn - A-
Jason Giambi - F
Troy Glaus - C+

Aubrey Huff - B
Nick Johnson - C
Paul Konerko - B+
Derrek Lee - B-
Adam LaRoche - C+
Lyle Overbay - C+
Carlos Pena - B-
Mike Sweeney - C+
Jim Thome - B
Ty Wigginton - C-

Verdict for the Mets: Ike Davis put up 3.4 WAR, more than any other player on this list besides Dunn. So like, we're not paying Derrek Lee $5 million to ride the pine.

Second base, shortstop, and 3rd base to come tomorrow.