Inspired partly by my frustration of fellow Leafs' fans using "But we're the 2nd youngest team in the LEAGUE!" excuse and partly by James Mirtle's recent tweet on average NHL age, I decided to look into something I'd wanted to know for a while: How do average ages look when you weight the players' ages by their TOI?

My rationale behind this is simple: Just because a team has a number of young players on their roster, it doesn't mean that they're the ones primarily impacting the outcome of the game. There are teams that have the luxury of easing in their young players due to the depth of the rosters, and others that lean on their youth to be primary contributors. In my opinion, it's this distinction that leads to a better idea of how "young" a team is than a simple average.

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Procrastinating, I made another roster. I can go on and on about why this below team is the best but you can probably just see for yourself. Compare your life roster to mine then kill yourself weep.

Cap Geek Link.

Forwards

Pavel Datsyuk - Claude Giroux - Corey Perry

Loui Eriksson - Anze Kopitar - Jeff Skinner

Max Pacioretty - Dave Bolland - Cal Clutterbuck

Shawn Thornton - Michal Handzus - Marcel Goc

Extra: Ryan Jones

Defense

Alex Pietrangelo - Kris Letang

Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Dan Girardi

Carl Gunnarsson - Travis Hamonic

Extras: Adam Larsson - Dmitri Orlov

Goaltending

Roberto Luongo

J.S. Giguere

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Getting right to the point:

Capgeek Link.

Forwards

Bobby Ryan - Jonathan Toews - Jeff Skinner

Loui Eriksson - Joe Pavelski - Max Pacioretty

Mike Cammalleri - Sean Couturier - Radim Vrbata

Mike Rupp - Frans Nielsen - Cal Clutterbuck

Defense

Alex Pietrangelo - Zdano Chara

Carl Gunnarsson - Alex Edler

Ian White - Ryan Ellis

Goaltending

Jon Quick

Braden Holtby

Extras

Ryan Jones, Mike Weaver, Deryk Engelland

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Season over. Once again, Leafs are watching from the sidelines as 16 other teams vie for the Cup, and once again, it is in no small part due to poor performance in net. Thinking of solutions for next year, you've likely already checked out upcoming UFA goaltenders on capgeek, as well as dreamed of trade scenarios for the prize RFA names - Cory Schneider, Jonathan Bernier or hell even Carey Price or Tuukka Rask.

Before you back a direction of the team you think Burke should take the Leafs in, let's take one big look at the entire goaltending landscape in the NHL - how the Leafs stand relative to other clubs, which goalies really deserve praise and which ones are overrated/overhyped.

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Following up a post I did in the summer, sometimes it's interesting to look at Leafs stats in chart form as it changes throughout the season. One rightful criticism of the last post was that it didn't separate Even strength production (5v5, 4v4 and 3v3(BOZAK!!1)) from Special Teams production. After the jump, we'll see just that - as well as how these figures compare to last seasons' charts.

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A week off between Maple Leafs games to start the season - while probably good for the recovery of the injured players - is hell for the fans. Hopefully some charts can ease the pain.

John-Michael Liles, a 5th round pick by the Avalanche in the 2000 NHL entry draft,  has often been described as "Tomas Kaberle lite" - he replaced Kaberle's spot as Schenn's most probable defense partner, plays a similar offensive style of hockey, and is equally as "untruculent" in terms of throwing his body around. The fact that the Leafs traded for Liles with the conditional 2nd round pick acquired from Boston in the Kaberle trade only serves to draw further parallels:

Kaberle and Liles nearly matched each other in points and in overall cap value this past season. Liles will enter the final year of his four-year, $16.8 million contract this fall before he’s slated to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. He contributed $4.2 million to Colorado’s cap, while Kaberle’s championship year came at a cost of $4.25 million.

Age is the primary difference between the two, with the 30-year-old Liles three years younger than Kaberle. But Liles’ comparative youth isn’t exactly filled with exuberance and strong, healthy bones. While nowhere near the level of the league’s upper echelon of glass men, Liles has still missed 37 games over his last three seasons due to a delightful cornucopia of injuries (broken foot, bruised left shoulder, concussion, wrist injury).

The Kaberle comparisons have been done to death, so let's compare Liles to an offensive D-man from Liles' old division - Marek Zidlicky. Originally a 7th round pick in the 2001 NHL draft by the New York Rangers, Zidlicky spent a number of years in the Finnish league SM-liiga when he couldn't come to contract terms with the Rangers. After a trade to Nashville, Zidlicky quickly found success with a 53 point season playing all 82 games. Since the lockout, Zidlicky has been one of the most consistent 40+ point offensive dmen in the league until a series of injuries (groin, lower-body, undisclosed, shoulder, hamstring) made him miss 36 games last season.

Both players have been core to their respective teams' powerplay and offensive production from the blueline - but who will have the better 2011/2012 season?

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A week off between Maple Leafs games to start the season - while probably good for the recovery of the injured players - is hell for the fans. Hopefully some charts can ease the pain.

Matthew Lombardi was drafted twice - initially by the Edmonton Oilers in the 7th round of the 2000 NHL entry draft, and again by the Calgary Flames in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft. Known mostly for his speed, his career almost came to an end merely 2 games into a new contract with the Nashville Predators:

Matthew Lombardi came to the Predators as their big offseason acquisition last year. When he tested skating during training camp, several players came out of the locker room to see his speed. Lombardi barely got to show it in the regular season. In the second game of the season at Chicago, he went into the boards awkwardly and suffered a concussion. He continued playing, and only later realized he suffered a head injury.

Jarret Stoll was, eerily enough, also drafted twice - initially by the Calgary Flames in the 2nd round of the 2000 NHL entry draft and again by the Edmonton Oilers in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft. He had several decent seasons with the Oilers before being traded to the Kings along with Matt Greene for Lubinor Visnovsky. For several seasons he had been the #2 center for LA behind Anze Kopitar, until the Kings traded Brayden Schenn along with Wayne Simmonds in return for Mike Richards, which pushed Stoll down the depth chart.

Like Lombardi, Stoll is looking like he may fit a more bottom 6 role with his team going forward, but unlike Lombo it's not because of an incredibly dangerous injury. But which player will have the better 2011/2012 season?

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A week off between Maple Leafs games to start the season - while probably good for the recovery of the injured players - is hell for the fans. Hopefully some charts can ease the pain.

Tim Connolly, the 5th overall pick in the 1999 NHL entry draft (Sedin draft), is a well-known commodity to Leafs fans. In years where he was healthy, he put up slightly under a point-per-game. You'll see the extent of his injury issues after the jump.

Kristian Huselius, a 2nd round pick in the 1997 NHL entry draft, was drafted by the Florida Panthers and traded to Calgary in exchange for Steve Montador and Dustin Johner. After several great seasons in Calgary, he went on to sign with the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2008 offseason where he has seen relative success despite battling his own injury issues.

The frail forward is a furiously frustrating type of player. You know they could be great producers if they just managed to stay healthy for a long enough stretch. Which of these will outperform in 2011/2011?

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A week off between Maple Leafs games to start the season - while probably good for the recovery of the injured players - is hell for the fans. Hopefully some charts can ease the pain.

Joffrey Lupul, the 7th overall pick by the Anaheim Ducks in the 2002 NHL entry draft, is probably best known for two things - being traded twice for Chris Pronger, and his injury history:

One surgery turned into two, followed by a bone infection that required six weeks of antibiotics. When it finally looked like the infection was gone, Lupul started to rehab and was hopeful of returning and reaching the 20-goal mark again. But the infection roared back, costing him another eight weeks.

Tomas Fleischmann was the 63rd overall pick by the Detroit Red Wings in the same 2002 draft. Before he could be signed by DET, his rights were traded along with a 1st and 4th round picks to the Capitals for Robert Lang, where he played between Hershey and Washington for 5 seasons before being traded again to Colorado for Scott Hannan. After going on a near point-per-game clip for Colorado, doctors discovered he had a blood clot in both of his lungs:

"At the end of the day, fortunately this was discovered," Avalanche general manager Greg Sherman said before his team's 5-1 loss to Nashville on Thursday night. "He's a young man. This is a serious condition."

Sherman added that Fleischmann isn't in the hospital, and he should be able to resume his career following treatment.

"The indications from our doctor is yeah, he'll live a quote-unquote normal life," Sherman said. "This is something that can be treated through medication. That's what I'm told."

Both players have had their careers interrupted by fairly unusual injury setbacks - but now they are getting another chance to prove they can be Top 6 forwards on their respective teams. Which one will outperform in 2011/2012?

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For the most part, the predictions for Phil Kessel are in: TSN has Kessel hitting 31G in 76 games, MLHS says 35G in again, 76 games, and my own (somewhat naive) said 34. But why so low? Isn't this the guy we paid a King's ransom for in hopes that he could be a 40-50 goal scorer?

For the most part, goal predictions are generally based on conservative assumptions surrounding shots, sh%, TOI, previous season GP, etc., and as such always miss the mark on breakout or huge slumping seasons. There is a HUGE variability from season to season, especially in young, dynamic players, and no one should be surprised if the experts say 30 and Phil hits 40. Experts can only predict the future based on the data available to them in the present, and that data can change in an instant. That being said, there are generally some trends that players exhibit that makes it easy to plot a range of likely outcomes.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs 2010/2011 Season was a wild ride - it was a tale of 2 teams, signs of progress, of individual successes but ultimately team failure. It was a season that involved cognitive dissonance for pessimistic (or realistic?) Leafs fans who looked at the numbers and saw futility - but without our own 1st round pick, there was no benefit to a collapse in the standings. On one hand, it generally forced Leafs fans to be united in their cheering for improbable success, on the other it was frustrating and often felt like there was no light at the end of the tunnel.

In case you didn't know, I love charts. They can often compellingly portray a pattern in one little picture much better than a table or long-winded essay. This post doesn't contain any information you probably don't already know, but can maybe be used as a reality check on the Leafs late-season push and what that could mean for next year.

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"Put it on net and good things happen" they say, or at least good things happen about 10.83% of the time for forwards who played at least 20 games in the 2010-2011 season. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that there is a strong correlation between shots and goals - it's hard to score without shooting the puck now that Toskala has been laughed out of the NHL.

Following up from a previous fanpost about Kulemin, I wanted to use the factors there to see what 2011/2012 has in store for the Leafs Top 9 (10 if you include Lombardi). Read on to see why I think Grabovski has a shot at 30 goals next season but Kulemin doesn't. And yes, there's math involved - but also graphs!

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Editor's Note: Good Lord, if you write a fanpost like this then you will see it on the front page. An amazing analysis of 30 goal scorers, Nikolai Kulemin, and what it takes to repeat a 30 goal season.

One of the hot topics in Leafland this summer has revolved around one of our (very few) T.O. developed talents, Nikolai Kulemin. After scoring 16G in 2009/2010, Kulemin earned himself a 2 year, $2.35M/season contract in a deal that is now looking like a short term steal. Don't expect him to come this cheaply after next year, Leafs fans. Kulemin exploded for 30 G in 2010/2011, and short of a hugely disappointing contract year in 2011/2012, Kulemin will be looking to get paid and will be looking at the recent Dubinsky/Callahan contracts as comparables.

But can he perform like last year again? A quick scan over his stats shows a whopping 17.1 shooting percentage, as compared to his previous career average of 11.3%. The immediate reaction is to label him a "regress to mean" candidate that is slated for a pullback in production. And I don't necessarily disagree.

How does he compare to other 30 goal scorers? Will he be a one-hit wonder? Should we expect 20G from Kulemin going forward, or could he see 30+G again? After the jump, we'll see where he stands within the 30G group, as well as what he (and the coaching staff) have to do to keep Kulemin's game at an elite level of production.

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 Editor's Note: nhlcheapshot is taking the "Who Will The Leafs Sign" in a different direction and makes a compelling case to want Burke to roll the UFA dice on a much maligned forward once again.

Saw this tweet today:

@renhockey Dale Tallon just told me that he won't make an offer to Steve Bernier. He's now UFA.

Now, I didn't know a lot about Steve Bernier beyond that he was included in the Keith Ballard trade along with Michael Grabner and a 1st round pick. 

His stats are not mindblowing:

But after a closer look, the situation reminded me of another RFA who was allowed to become UFA....

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Editor's Note: nhlcheapshot ends his detailed look at the Leafs' centre position by examining the franchise's prospect depth.

In the last few years, being a Toronto Maple Leafs fan means facing disappointment both on and off the ice. Our boys in blue haven't seen post-season action since 2004, our current Cup drought is tied for the longest among NHL teams, but even after watching other teams go to the dance each post-season we're stuck with the additional frustration of watching the biggest free agents names (and restricted free agents) sign with other teams.

You know what I'm talking about. Rick Nash. Bobby Ryan. And now, Brad Richards, Paul Stastny, etc. These are the dream signings and trades. They would be Gods amongst men if they could bring any type of sustained success to this organization, but have chosen to sign with other teams instead. And it breaks our hearts.

Many Leafs fans believe (or once believed) that it is every player's dream who grew up being a Leafs fan to sign with them as soon as they got the chance. That as proven not be the case as the team has mounted up losing season after losing season, and players just straight up prefer winning situations.

All Leafs fans should consider the very real possibility that there is no Unicorn on the horizon. No top flight #1C brought in through UFA or trade, and all offer sheets for high-end RFAs are matched. But perhaps the answer lies within the Leafs' own organization.

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Editor's Note: nhlcheapshot follows up his look at Brad Richards with a post looking at what the Leafs' other options might be on the open and not quite open market. 

So you've read up on Brad Richards, but feel he's too old, too costly, the term would be too long, or maybe his incredibly low career PIM means he's not truculent enough. Or maybe you feel the whole argument is moot because he doesn't want to come to Toronto anyway.

Luckily, he's not the only legit #1C in the league, and you can bet Brian Burke has a backup plan or two if and when Brad Richards decides to re-sign in DAL or take the ridiculous lifetime contract that Glen Sather will offer on July 1.

That's right, the art of the trade - and Brian Burke has been known to pull off some doozies in his time. From moving up in the draft, to acquiring an elite defenseman or two, to controversial deals that will be debated for years to come.

The biggest problem is that most teams - for obvious reasons - don't want to let go of a high-end center, especially a young one. Let's take a look at some options he has, and what he'll have to do to acquire them.

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Editor's Note: Here's a great fanpost looking at Brad Richards who has been tabbed as brian Burke's ideal UFA signing this summer. 

I'll admit it - I'm a Brad Richards fan. Not just because he is #32 in ALL-TIME point production for centers <= 30 years old. Not just because he won the Conn Smythe and the Lady Byng in the same year he hoisted the Cup.

It's because once upon a time I drafted him in my very first fantasy hockey league and he has been rewarding me ever since.

I don't care if it's a stupid reason. It's the same reason I probably had irrational admiration for Kris Versteeg while he was still a Blackhawk and Zach Parise even though he's a Devil. But needless to say, as rumours persisted that Brad may or may not be returning to the Stars, I jumped aboard the "Sign Richards on July 1" bandwagon.

Which brings me to this post. As I'm sure you all know, Burke is committed to pursuing a #1C this offseason:

Fetching a first-line centre is Burke’s top priority, "no question about it", but where this player resides is anyone’s guess. Brad Richards is the only obvious fit on the free agent market, but his desires for a long-term contract could shift him out of Toronto’s interest. "As always, we intend to be active on July 1st," said Burke. "We have a ton of cap room and we intend to be a factor on July 1st."

As the article mentions, Brad Richards jumps out as being the obvious cream-of-the-crop possible free agent center on the market. Before you choose whether you're for or against such a move, let's get to know Brad Richards the player. 

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