Alright, so I've been looking over the numbers and it seems like there is still a ton of disagreement on how good Alex Smith was in 2011 and what that means for him going forward.

Ideally, you want his performance to be adjusted for the following:

1. the quality of the opponent played

2. the circumstances of the play (clutchness, situation, non-garbage time, etc.)

3. rushing and scrambling ability -- sack avoidance

So I think I've come up with an all-inclusive look at QB Performance. What I did is take total effective yards, produced by FootballOutsiders.com -- it adjusts total yardage for strength of opponent and game situation. I then combined it with effective rushing yards -- this now gives me a "total effective yards" metric for quarterbacks. I then added up the number of attempted pass plays -- this includes sacks and botched snaps -- and combined it with number of rushes. Finally, I combined passing touchdowns with rushing touchdowns and interceptions with fumbles lost. I then used these figures to re-calculate quarterback rating -- I used the quarterback's official completion percentage for part (a) of the QB Rating Formula and used total effective yards, scores, and turnovers for the rest of the formula (formula Referenced at bottom of jump).

This provides a complete, clear look at what a quarterback produces when the ball is in his hands. When we do that, we see that Alex Smith was the 10th-Ranked Quarterback in the NFL in 2011, between Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. If you throw out Jason Campbell, who was having a great season until hurt (lower sample size), Alex Smith is 9th. If the playoffs are factored in, where Alex 'stepped it up' - he moves up to 6th or 7th.

Player Total Effective QB Rating (Effective Run and Pass Yards)

A.Rodgers - 126.00

D.Brees - 118.57

T.Brady - 110.08

T.Romo - 103.81

M.Schaub - 97.07

M.Stafford - 96.91

M.Ryan - 95.15

J.Campbell - 93.98

E.Manning - 89.51

Alex Smith - 88.22

This is significantly better than his performance in 2010 and 2011, about 1/6th better to be exact. In 2009 and 2010, he performed in a similar capacity to Mark Sanchez. I expect even more improvement in 2012 with a full offseason, better receivers, and a corrected mechanical delivery. The link to the spreadsheet is below.

Total Effective Quarterback Rating

Continue reading this post »

I'm sure this will be a lively debate. With the talk of AJ Jenkins running the Hill with Jerry Rice, people are starting to say Jenkins is the next rice -- I know its hyperbole, but still.

However, it you really want to compare AJ Jenkins to someone, compare him to John Taylor. They're the same size at 6'0' - 6'1', 190 lbs or so, a lanky frame, quick acceleration, game-breaking ability, nice crossing route runner, and deep threat.

Judge for yourself.

2012 NFL Draft - Re-Mock for the Niners

I've gone back and done a re-mock of the 49ers picks in the 2012 NFL Draft. If you're going to grade the 49ers draft, you have to compare it to the decisions they chose not to make. I stick to the 49ers assumed existing boards -- I don't insert my own preferences in stead. I'm making three assumptions:

1. AJ Jenkins is the #1 WR on our board (after Floyd and Blackmon) and they don't like Stephen hill for some reason

2. we accept the trade Minnesota offered and we move back to #35 in exchange for #98. Baltimore would have taken Upshaw at #29 if they didn't trade the pick.

3. we still move back from #92 to #97 -- all other trades don't go down

So we end up picking at #35, #61, #97, #98, #125, #165, #199, and #237. So here goes:

#35 - DE Andre Branch, Clemson. I assume that AJ Jenkins goes to STL at #33. Branch is an excellent pass-rush selection at #35 that will create a dynamic pass rush along with Aldon Smith

#61 - WR Rueben Randle, LSU - Since we didn't take a WR with our first pick, we do so with our second pick. BPA - pass on James since WR is a bigger priority

#97 - RB Lamar Miller, Miami - instead of trading the pick, we take Miller at #97. Miller is a fast, explosive player that is a good fit for the team and provides high-end speed

#98 - C Ben Jones, Georgia - nice center/guard prospech who ended up going #99 to Houston.

#125 - FS Christian Thompson, South Carolina State - bigger and faster than Robinson.

#165 - LB Darius Fleming, Notre Dame - He still ends up being the #1 guy on our board.

#199 - OL Jason Slowey, Western Oregon - Still ends up being the pick because he's apparently very high on our board.

#237 - S Antonio Allen, South Carolina - we take a second safety because we have simply no depth

Continue reading this post »

Anybody have bold camp battle predictions that they'd like to share? I'll throw a couple out there for conversation:

1. Perrish Cox wins the starting CB job away from Tarell Brown, Brown gets bumped to nickel, Culliver to dime. Ed Donatell was Cox's coach in Denver and the two have a close relationship, He and Coach Harbaugh have a good relationship, and Cox was being groomed to replace Champ Bailey in Denver during his rookie year.

http://www.49ers.com/news-and-events/article-2/Perrish-Cox-Welcomed-with-Open-Arms/29226538-e5e3-47f3-ba2b-cef3bd91afa8

2. Brandon Jacobs gets cut, Boobie Dixon makes the team and we carry 4 running backs. Dixon gets motivated by the competition and he can play ST well.

3. all 6 WRs make the team. Williams avoids getting the axe. Moss looks great in camp.

Does Stanford WR Chris Owusu make the 53-man Roster?

Assuming he's medically cleared, I think he's got a good chance to. Moss, Williams, and Owusu are probably competing for three roster spots. Remote chance that Ginn is competing for a roster spot as well -- but that may be impacted by DB Perrish Cox's standing on the team - he is a talented return man with major red flags off the field.

WR Chris Owusu

Height: 6-0 1/8

Weight: 196

Speed: 4.34

Arm: 31 3/4

Hand: 8 1/2

Wingspan: 73 3/4

Bench Press: 19 (6th at Combine among WRs)

Vertical: 40 1/2 (3rd at Combine among WRs)

Broad: 129 (2nd at Combine among WRs)

3-Cone: 6.85 (8th at Combine among WRs)

20 yd shuttle: 4.11 (6th at Combine among WRs)

60 yd shuttle: 11.22 (4th at Combine among WRs)

After the jump I've posted some highlights of Owusu from his time at Stanford as well as two clips of Perrish Cox's incredible return skills.

Cox makes Ginn expendable. Jenkins and James can also return but are raw.

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I think so. Including Owusu, who does have a shot at making the 53-man roster and will be PS if he doesn't. Here is what it looks like:

Michael Crabtree, age 24, 40yard - 4.5 sec. (estimate)

Mario Manningham, age 25, 40yard - 4.59 sec. or better

Randy Moss, age 35, 40yard - 4.4 sec.

AJ Jenkins, age 22, 40yard - 4.38 sec. -- rumor of a 4.31

Kyle Williams, age 23, 40yard - 4.43 sec.

Ted Ginn Jr, age 27, 40yard - 4.38 sec or better

Chris Owusu, age 22, 40yard - 4.31 - 4.36 sec

I can't think of any team with more speed than the 49ers. Its really shocking because we were thought of as one of the slowest offenses only last season...

Clearly, Trent Baalke concluded that the 49ers lacked elite speed and explosiveness on offense, resulting in the picks of AJ Jenkins at #30 and LaMichael James at #61. James is a consensus home run pick, but its a bit unclear why Jenkins was taken over Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, and Alshon Jeffery -- all rated ahead of Jenkins.

So what I did is analyze measurables of the Top 10 WR prospects for height, weight, size, speed, vertical, arm length, and broad jump ability. Its linked below.

The first thing that stands out is that Stephen Hill is perhaps the great physically gifted WR prospect we've seen in years. However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver. But when we look outside of Hill, we see something Amazing:

AJ Jenkins has the best vertical:speed ratio in the draft and the best broad:speed ratio in the draft...outside of the freak Hill (who can't play WR). He outscored Floyd, Jeffery, and Blackmon on these measures. In addition, he's a great WR.

His only weak spot is strength and weight, which he plans to address this summer...I THINK WE GOT A STEAL.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmEu1DDN514kdDBaa1BUbEROWkppN2Q0M0xoYXRVd3c#gid=0

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmEu1DDN514kdDBaa1BUbEROWkppN2Q0M0xoYXRVd3c#gid=0

We saw a lot of trades in the first round, and I don't know if we'll see the same thing on Day 2.

Here's a mock based on available players after the first round and updated draft positions.

For the 49ers, Silatolu falls to us somehow -- not a lot of teams need OGs in the 2nd round.

1(33) Rams - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

2(34) Colts - Rueben Randle, WR, LSU

3(35) Ravens (From Vikings) - Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

4(36) Broncos (From Buccaneers) - Jerel Worthy, DT, Mich State

5(37) Browns - Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

6(38) Jaguars - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

7(39) Rams (From Redskins) - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

8(40) Panthers - Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson

9(41) Bills - Cordy Glenn, OT/OG, Georgia

10(42) Dolphins - Andre Branch, DE/OLD, Clemson

11(43) Seahawks - Lavonte David, OLB, Nebraska

12(44) Chiefs - Bobby Massie, OT, Ole Miss

13(45) Rams (From Cowboys) - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

14(46) Eagles - Janoris Jenkins, CB, Northern Alabama (via Florida)

15(47) Jets - Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State

16(48) Patriots (From Raiders) - Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana

17(49) Chargers - Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

18(50) Bears - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

19(51) Eagles (From Cardinals) - Brandon Taylor, S, LSU

20(52) Titans - Vinny Curry, DE/OLB, Marshall

21(53) Bengals - Devon Still, DL, Penn State

22(54) Lions - Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia

23(55) Falcons - Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson

24(56) Steelers - Kendall Reyes, DL, UConn

25(57) Broncos - Chris Polk, RB, Washington

26(58) Texans - Jeff Allen, OT, Illinois

27(59) Packers - Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech

28(60) Ravens - Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

29(61) 49ers - Amini Silatolu, OT/OG, Midwestern State

30(62) Patriots - George Iloka, S, Boise State

31(63) Giants - Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina

We land DL Jerel Worthy at #30 and steal WR Reuben Randle at #61 -- he's only at #63 on Mike Mayock's big board.

Continue reading this post »

Mike Mayock has us drafting the most overrated player in the NFL Draft, a guy named Kendall Wright from Baylor -- a slower version of Kyle Williams who in addition gives up on plays, fails to separate, and doesn't like to block. He has zero chance of ever playing Flanker (z) or Split End (x) -- a really slow slot receiver.

So, I decided to preemptively create a post for all of us to vent if the unfortunate happens and Wright is drafted...and confidence in Baalke collapses.

Who's with me? No Peter Warrick 2.0!

With all the mocks that have come out and all the different directions we can go, I am very comfortable with our options at #30. There are, however, two players that I would be very upset if we took them at #30 -- I did have four players -- Shea McLellin and Derek Wolfe -- but I'm sold on McLellin now and Wolfe is simply a 2nd or 3rd round pick (I think only Mel Kiper has him as a first rounder).

The first is Kendall Wright. He's a 5-10 slot receiver without elite speed. I have no idea what use he would be to the 49ers and his selection would cause me to question Baalke's competence. He would be a terrible, terrible choice. All of the other 4 options at #30 for TEs/WRs each have their own strengths and weaknesses that we can all make arguments for...I'd be fine with any of them.

The second is Janoris Jenkins. The guy has major off the field issues, both with the law and in personal life. It clearly shows a lack of responsibility in life that will represent itself on the field at some point and through his work ethic. This is a "Raiders" pick or a "Bengals" pick -- I would be very unhappy with the pick, but I would have to assume that Baalke determined his off the field issues are manageable and we can mature him as a man. Top 10 talent, Ten Cent head.

After the jump is my big board of 30 players we can take at #30, sorted by skill group

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Never really looked at this guy until I read the 49 in 49 on him this morning. Dude is incredible! I would be very happy if he is the pick at #30. He's the guy that ran a 4.33 40 at the combine, has a 38.5 in vertical, and a 133 in long jump. 5'10'', 192 lbs.

From CBS Sports:

POSITIVES: Possesses legitimate NFL cover skills. Has a quick, low backpedal with a fluid hip turn to cover receivers down the field. Has at least adequate straight-line speed and good balance, fluidity to change directions. Alert defender for zone coverage, showing good understanding of route progressions occuring behind him and a quick burst downhill to break on underneath passes in front of him. Very good hand-eye coordination and timing to knock passes away as the receiver attempts to secure the catch. Highly competitive. Raised his level of play against top competition. Emerged as a standout punt returner in 2010, earning honorable mention accolades by averaging 15.2 yards per return (ninth in the country) as a sophomore, though he did not return a punt for score over his career. Played in all 38 games of his UCF career and has had no known injuries.

NEGATIVES: Possesses only average height for the position. A bit high in his backpedal. Too often allows a free release to the receiver when in man-press coverage. Gets his hands on a lot of football but needs to do a better job of turning interception opportunities into actual interceptions, recording 10 despite breaking up 36 passes over his career. Struggled with fumbles as a punt returner, raising concerns about his ability to contribute in this role at the NFL level.

Did I mention he was an excellent return man too?

I ran across this fantastic analysis of Alshon Jeffery's speed, and what it shows is that Alshon Jeffery, the big possession WR, is as fast as Julio Jones, DeSean Jackson, AJ Green, and Percy Harvin after the first 10 - 15 yards. And Jeffery is huge!

Very slow off the line, then turns on the jets for a deep threat -- perhaps this is why Jeffery always gets behind defenses. And I would imagine that it'd be hard to adjust to such a change if you're a defender. After the first 10 yards, he may be the fastest WR in the 2012 NFL Draft.

so what I'm saying is that I am 100% down with Jeffery at #30. My WR Rankings are:

1a. Blackmon (tied)

1b. Floyd (tied)

3. Randle

4. Jeffery

5. Hill

6. Sanu

7. Wright

8. Quick

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=487994

In response to my Trent Richardson Trade Scenario post, I saw a lot of bad information thrown out as evidence against the trade. So, I decided to go back and look at Running Backs taken in the Top 10 and how they've fared - DraftHistory.com.

What you will see is that for the most part, spending a top 10 pick on a running back is one of the safest moves a team can make. If you look through the later rounds, even round 2 - 3, maybe only 1/10 2nd and 3rd round backs even start after 3 years.

So trading up for a high pick like Trent Richardson, who is a high character guy, is really really safe.

Below are Top 10 Running backs taken since 1978 (modern offense era):

Continue reading this post »

So on Thursday, here is how the Top 8 or 9 goes:

1. Luck

2. RGIII

3. Kalil

4. Tannehill

5. Claiborne

6. Cox

7. Blackmon

8. Ingram

The 49ers make a call to either Carolina at #9 or Buffalo at #10 and offer our 2012 #1, our 2012 #2, and our 2013 #1 in exchange for their pick in order to draft Trent Richardson. Are you happy with the trade? Ecstatic? Angry? What is your take?

Of all the players with the potential of falling to #30, here is my ranked list of who I'd like. The top 3 are all defense, simply because that's where the talent is at this year. I have TE Fleener #4, WR Randle #5, and WR Hill #9. Rankings are based on fit for the 49ers, need, and best player available.

Thoughts?

1. CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama - Solid, low-risk DB prospect who will be a starter in this league for years to come. Not a need, but we'd have the best nickel and dime defensive backfield in the NFL without question. Big enough to play Safety and is a brute in the run game

2. CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina - Similar prospect to Kirkpatrick. Not a need, but we'd have a secondary that can goe toe to toe with any team that tries to spread us out. Another guy that can play safety and is low risk.

3. DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama - Again, not a need, but he is a monster of a pass-rusher who could rotate in with Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. You can never have enough 'fresh' pass-rushers. Also, he can play 4-3 DE if we ever decided to go that route.

4. TE Coby Fleener, Stanford - perfect for our offense. The 49ers have two tight ends in their base package, so we essentially have two starting tight ends. And I hate to burst the bubble of many 49er fans, but Delanie Walker is not a starting-caliber Tight End statistically or size-wise. With Fleener and Davis, we would have incredible mismatches against safeties and linebackers, forcing teams to abandon cover 2...that opens things up for our WRs on intermediate sideline routes.

5. WR Reuben Randle, LSU - Randle is the 3rd best WR in this prospect after Floyd and Blackmon and is a great fit for the west coast offense (intermediate routes). He's on LSU's hands team if that telsl you anthything. He is an excellent route runner who sets up defenders very well -- good shoulder fake to get a little separation. He fights for first down yardage -- a tough, physical receiver that will move the chains. He loves to block. Has the potential to be a #1 in the NFL - I think his floor is a solid Split End like Crabtree.

6. DL Devon Still, Penn State - great run-stopper who is quick off the snap and can generate a decent pass rush for an interior lineman. Still figuring out how to use his God-given physical abilities -- growth spurt in college has made him a lot bigger than when he entered college.

7. DL Jerel Worthy, Michigan State - A better fit as a 4-3 DT, could end up being a solid 3-4 DE in our system, rotating in. Biggest concern is inconsistency

8. OG Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin - big-bodied mauler of a guard that still has lateral agility and gets downfield well to put a helmet on a linebacker. That attitude and awareness makes some think he can move to center someday -- Konz had that position locked down at Wisconsin. Very, very strong.

9. WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech - Physically, Hill is the best WR in this draft. Tall, fast, with an amazing vertical - Hill has more upside than anyone else in the draft. However, he has very little experience running pro style routes, tracking the quarterback's actions, etc. -- almost all of his yardage was on broken-looking plays in the Georgia Tech option offense. Phenomenal blocker.

10. C Peter Konz, Wisconsin - High-character Center who has the ability to play guard as well. Plays 'smart', always aware of what is going on like teammate Zeitler. Has had issues with strength and injuries.

Fooch's Note: Check out audio of Trent Baalke's press conference (Part 1 and Part 2). Who is Baalke's draft crush?

Who is the guy that the 49ers are absolutely enamored with? My heart tells me Fleener, since he's going in the mid second round in a lot of mocks.

But my gut tells me its a small-school guy...WR Brian Quick, Appalachian State? Another guess - Washington NT Alameda Ta'amu.

"We have one person that we feel real good about that if we're not able to make some moves, if we choose to do that, up or back," Baalke said Wednesday during a pre-draft media session. "You got to be prepared to make the pick at 30, which we're prepared to do. You see how the board falls. We certainly have more than one person. But there is one in particular that we feel will be there. And if he is, we'll be prepared to make the pick."

http://www.csnbayarea.com/football-san-francisco-niners/niners-talk/Baalke-49ers-have-one-player-in-mind-for?blockID=691946&feedID=5936

OK I based my picks on the value boards available at ESPN, Profootballweekly, and CBSSports. Nobody reached more than 10 picks.

We end up taking Rueben Randle, WR, LSU and Orson Charles, TE, Georgia. I know the latter is a huge shock to many, but he is very similar physically to Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker is simply not producing (I've posted on this). We'd like a Guard at #60/61, but Brooks is a bit of a reach and Charles is just a dynamic weapon that could make our offense unique and very difficult to defend.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Georgia-TE-Orson-Charles-Aaron-Hernandez-part-II.html

1 Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

2 Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams) - RGIII

3 Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC

4 Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson – I expect them to trade out of the spot, but if they are unable to, they will take Richardson, as Richardson is a better overall prospect than Blackmon. Furthermore, there is a lot more value at WR later in the draft than RB.

5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU – Best player available, the defense is getting very old.

6 Rams (from Redskins) – Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss State – The Rams management team has stated repeatedly that they believe they can find quality WRs and OTs later in the draft. However, what they cannot find are elite Defensive lineman. Cox visited the Rams last week

7 Jacksonville Jaguars – Melvin Ingram, DEOLB, South Carolina – Jax needs a pass-rusher in a big way

8 Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M – The Dolphins get their guy.

9 Carolina Panthers – Justin Blackmon, WR, OK State – He’s scheduled to visit the Panthers this week, and Adam Schefter reported that they’re willing to pull the trigger if he’s there. The defense still sucks, but Blackmon is BPA, and with Smith, LaFell, and Blackmon, Cam Newton is going to be a 5,000 yard passer every season. Who needs Defense?

10 Buffalo Bills – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame – they want to surround Fitz with as much talent as possible, and the Bills philosophically believe that they can find OL talent later in the draft – they simply do not value it as highly. Also BPA.

11 Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College – BPA and he fills a major need.

12 Seattle Seahawks - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina – Pass-rusher is a major need.

13 Arizona Cardinals – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford – huge need, probably BPA

14 Dallas Cowboys – Mark Barron, S, Alabama – big need, BPA.

15 Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU – Interior DT and ILB are the biggest needs – its easier for them to find an ILB later in the draft.

16 New York Jets – Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama – the guy rushes the passer like Lamarr Woodley, and the Jets need a pass-rusher

17 Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders) – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina - #1 need, best CB available.

18 San Diego Chargers – Donta Hightower, ILB, Alabama –major need, probably BPA

19 Chicago Bears – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis – big DT for Chicago

20 Tennessee Titans – Andre Branch, DE/OLB Clemson – they wanted Mario Williams in FA, they draft a Pass-rusher at #20.

21 Bengals – Cordy Glenn, OT, Georgia – clearly the best player available and it fills a need.

22 Browns (from Atlanta Falcons) – Reily Reiff, OT, Iowa – nice spot for a solid RT to go. Big need, BPA.

23 Detroit Lions – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama – big need, BPA

24 Pittsburgh Steelers – Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford – big weapon for Big Ben. They need an upgrade at TE, and he’s there.

25 Denver Broncos – Jerel Worthy, DT, Mich State - #1 need by far, they only have 2 on the roster.

26 Houston Texans – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor – explosive player out of the slot. They already have a franchise #1 WR, so they can afford to draft a slot WR.

27 New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints) – Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois – They need a pass-rusher, and Mercilus has the highest upside (and greatest risk)

28 Green Bay Packers – Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Syracuse – pass-rush need

29 Baltimore Ravens – Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin – BPA need-filler.

30 San Francisco 49ers – Rueben Randle, WR, LSU. Simply the best player available. Everyone else available is really a reach at this point. Will fight for #3 spot as a rookie, will have a lock on #2 or #3 in 2013 with Moss gone. He’s a fighter – catches everything and battles for yards to move the chains. Physical receiver with lots of upside. Would be a much higher pick if he had a better vertical.

31 Patriots – Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC – make it a double!

32 New York Giants - Amini Silatolu, OG, Midwestern State – Left Guard was a huge problem last year.

1 (33) Rams – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina – big target for Bradford. They take Jeffery over Hill because Jeffery is more ready now.

2 (34) Colts – Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech – They draft a high upside WR for Luck that they can groom behind Wayne.

3 (35) Vikings – Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame – Terrible secondary gets a lot better.

4 (36) Buccaneers – David Wilson, RB, Va Tech – Nice RB to pair with Blount.

5 (37) Browns – Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State – the guy is moving up the draft boards very quickly, and he can be a nice weapon for McCoy.

6 (38) Jaguars – Bobbie Massie, OT Ole Miss – big need at OT. BPA.

7 (39) Rams (Redskins) – Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State – nice prospect that fills a major need.

8 (40) Panthers – Kendall Reyes, DT, UCONN – major need that they passed on in Rd 1.

9 (41) Bills – Mitchell Schwartz, Cal – need at OT with Bell gone

10 (42) Dolphins – Lavonte David, DE/OLB, Nebraska – explosive pass-rusher for the Fins

11 (43) Seahawks – Josh Robinson, CB, UCF – BPA, every team could always use another CB

12 (44) Chiefs – Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin – Big need for interior OL, BPA.

13 (45) Cowboys – Devon Still, DL, Penn State – big need on the Defensive Line – they thought about drafting JJ Watt Last year.

14 (46) Eagles – Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana – BPA. No ILBs at #46.

15 (47) Jets – Alameda Ta’amu, NT, Washington – BPA, big need at NT, big man.

16 (48) Patriots (from Oakland Raiders) – Doug Martin, RB, Boise State – BPA, you could always use another RB.

17 (49) Chargers – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford – by far the BPA, also a major need.

18 (50) Bears – Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson – Martz gutted the TE corps – time to rebuild it.

19 (51) Eagles (from Cardinals) – Jeff Allen, OT, Illinois – need.

20 (52) Titans – Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson – Need.

21 (53) Bengals – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami – Paired with Benson and BGE, they’ll have a very nice running game.

22 (54) Lions – C Ben Jones, Georgia – Raola sucks.

23 (55) Falcons – DE Vinny Curry, Marshall - BPA

24 (56) Steelers – CB Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska – fills a need, one of the top players on board

25 (57) Broncos – Dwight Bentley, CB, La Lafayette – very old secondary.

26 (58) Texans – AJ Jenkins, WR, Illinois – two speedy WRs to rejuvenate the Texans shallow secondary

27 Saints (forfeited) – N/A

28 (59) Packers – LaMichael James, RB, Oregon – a weapon for the Pack

29 (60) Ravens – Ronnell Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma – fills a need

30 (61) 49ers – Orson Charles, TE, Georgia – May be a surprise pick to some, but not to me. Harbaugh wants to run 2 TEs on almost every play, and Walker is simply not producing. Charles was compared to Vernon Davis in College due to physical characteristics, and he will be paired with him in the NFL,

31 (62) Patriots – Mike Martin, DE, Michigan – Need a 5-technique

32 (63) Giants – Bernard Pierce, RB, Temple – need a RB with Jacobs gone

Best Players available going into Round three:

DE/OLB Zach Brown, DE/OLB

DE/OLB Shea McLellin, DE/OLB

QB Brandon Weeden

QB Brock Osweiler

QB Kirk Cousins

WR Mohamed Sanu

OG Brandon Brooks

WR Nick Toon

LB Mychal Kendricks

CB Casey Hayward

CB Jamell Fleming

CB Janoris Jenkins

Fooch's Note: I don't necessarily agree with the reasoning, but it raises a point about two guys who have been hot topics of discussion here.

If you are so fixated on drafting Stephen Hill, why not take Tommy Streeter instead?

This is an honest question every "Hill Supporter" has to ask himself. Both guys are physical specimens (6-4 and 6-5) who ran 4.4 and sub 4.4 times at the combine. And both don't really know how to play the wide receiver position.

So instead of burning a first round pick on a project like Hill, aren't we better off burning a 3rd or 4th round pick on a project like Streeter?

Head after the jump...

Continue reading this post »

Final* 7-Round 49er Mock Draft

Barring prospect injury/arrest or a trade, this will be my final 49er full-round mock. I limited my picks to prospects who have draft grades near where we pick - based on profootball weekly's draft value chart. Here we go!

1 (30) - WR Rueben Randle, LSU - Late First Round Grade - I like Fleener myself, but I do not think he is going to be there when we pick. Rueben Randle is clearly the 3rd best WR prospect in this draft after Blackmon and Floyd, and is a perfect fit for West Coast Offense that likes to run the ball a lot and execute a ball-control offense. He has excellent hands, runs crisp routes, great size, ran a 4.42 at his pro day, is a very good blocker, and 'fights' for critical yards to move the chains on third down. He's perfect for us

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qTJkl-4s2k

2 (61) - CB Alfonzo Dennard,, Nebraska - Late Second Round Grade - Simply the best player available. Dennard is a physical cover corner who fit our primary zone scheme perfectly. He's a physical corner whos excellent against the run and can jam WRs much bigger than him effectively. He's got a physical attitude that he takes with him onto the field - he got into a fight with Alshon Jeffery in the Capital One Bowl. Strong nickel corner, and will allow us to perhaps have one of the best *dime* coverage packages in the NFL in 2012 and 2013 with Rogers, Brown, Culliver, and Dennard. Dennard is an excellent fit for our intimidating, physical style of defense.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj7fW0F7l9U

3 (92) - C/G Phil Blake, Baylor - Late Third Round Grade - Phil Blake is an excellent pass blocking interior linemand who started at center for the pass-heavy RGIII offense at Baylor. He can also play guard, making him the perfect option for the 49ers: we have a center of the future (and a 2012 backup) and a guy that can play right guard with tenacity. He is also an excellent shotgun snapper. I would expect him to start at RG in 2012 unless Kilgore is as good as we all hope he is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbRdk5oMT_k

4 (125) DL Jaye Howard, Florida - Late Fourth Round Pick Grade - the 6-3 305 pound Defensive Lineman from Florida is a big-time sleeper prospect. Scouts are saying that he's not big enough to play DT in a 4-3 offense, but I think he's perfect to play the 5-technique for us. He will be able to rotate in immediately and could end up being a steal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJ5GBkJCZXE

5 (165) TE James Hanna, Oklahoma - Mid Fifth Round Grade - OK I cheated slightly on the draft grade, but I'm only asking for a 10 - 15 spot slide in the 5th round. Hanna is a very quick receiving Tight End out of Oklahoma that surprised a lot of scouts at the combine with a 4.49 in the 40 yard dash. He's a fairly raw prospect for being a 5th year Senior, but he will fit very well with our Offense.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/09000d5d827c280a/2012-Combine-workout-James-Hanna

6 (199) FS/CB Janzen Jackson, McNeese State - Early 7th Round Grade - Jackson was one of the top DB recruits in the country when he chose to go to Tennessee. He had a blowup with the Kiffin Staff, left the team, and went back to Louisiana -- he entered this draft early. He had a poor 40 time that has cost him the chance to be drafted in the 4th round or so, but at #199, Jackson is good value for depth and has the raw skills to turn into a true gem

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/09000d5d827dcbf3/2012-Combine-workout-Janzen-Jackson

7 (237) C/G Gino Gradkowski, Delaware - Late Seventh Round Grade - The younger brother of Bengals Backup QB Nruce Gradkowski, the Delaware Center/Guard is getting a lot of looks from teams right now, but he has a 7th/UFA grade. Can play both Guard and Center - paired with Blake we would have a lot of flexibility on the line. A bit undersized.

http://optimumscouting.com/draft/articles/diamond-in-the-rough-gino-gradkowski-og-university-of-delaware.html

So as many of you know, I'm not very keen on the idea of drafting a WR in the first round unless they have the chance of being an impact rookie or they're simply a steal...so I'd prefer Fleener.

That being said, if we were to draft a WR, I would prefer Rueben Randle over Stephen Hill or Kendall Wright. He has the size and physicality to get separation on those short to intermediate routes that the West Coast Offense is so reliant upon...he really looks like Hakeem Nicks on tape. Hill is fast but totally raw -- guy can't run a f--king route tree for pete's sake, and most niner fans think he's a lock superstar because of his 40 time. I have Floyd and Blackmon as equal #1 talents worthy of a pick around the #10 spot or so -- I think #4 is way too high for Blackmon.

So here are my rankings:

1. Blackmon

1a. Floyd

3. Randle

4. Wright

5. Hill

6. Sanu

7. Jeffery

8. M Jones

9. Criner

10. McNutt

11. Quick

12. Streeter

13. Jenkins

14. Toon

15. Broyles

16. Childs

Worst-case scenario first round for 49ers

While mocking out the first round, I found that there's a good chance for trent richardson to drop in the draft...and I expect somebody to trade up for him. However, I also found that there's a risk the 49ers don't get one of the second-tier players they're hoping for at #30. That list includes:

TE Coby Dleener
C Peter Konz
OG Cordy Glenn
WR Stephen Hill
WR Kendall Wright
CB Dre Kirkpatrick
CB Janoris Jenkins

In this scenario, all of those guys are gone, so we're stuck going with the best player available unless somebody wants to trade up. I put Stephon Gilmore in this slot, mainly because everyone else we'd consider at #30 (Zeitler, Randle, RB Wilson, RB Martin) are huge reaches.
Our best hope in this scenario is that somebody *really* wants Whitney Mercilus. One possibility is Miami sending us a third rounder to move up from #42...we'd have to send them a 4th to even it up. So we'd then have picks at #42, #61, #74, #92, #165, #199, and #237. With those picks, we'd make the hypothetical selections:

#42 - Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin
#61 - Alameda Ta'amu, NT, Washington
#74 - Tommy Streeter, WR, Miami
#92 - Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
#165- David Molk, C, Michigan
#199- Coryell Judie, CB, Texas A&M
#237- Trenton Robinson, FS, Michigan State


1. Indianapolis (2-14) - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - No explanation needed.

2. Washington - from St. Louis (2-14) - Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor - No explanation needed.

3. Minnesota (3-13) - Matt Kalil, OT, USC - No explanation needed

4. Cleveland (4-12) - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - I think they're going to trade down, but if forced to stay at this spot I think they take Blackmon to spicen up the Browns passing game and maky McCoy look as good as they can...or Make Matt Barkley look really good in 2013.

5. Tampa Bay (4-12) - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - An excellent CB to be paired with Eric Wright

6. St. Louis - from Washington (5-11) - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis - Don't be shocked. This is quietly becoming the pick in mocks that have Claiborne and Blackmon already gone at #6. Jeff Fisher wants a big defensive tackle to make their D-Line dominant, and they also feel that they can grad a starting-caliber OT and WR at the beginning of the second round.

7. Jacksonville (5-11) Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa - Gotta keep Henne and Gabbert upright. Already signed a WR in FA.

8. Miami (6-10) - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M. Reuinited with Sherman.

9. Carolina (6-10) Michael Brockers, DE/TD, LSU - Rivera gets a beast to clog up the middle and dominate...if he can get the effort out of him.

10. Buffalo (6-10) - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford - They were at his pro day, he's a very good left tackle prospect, and is definetely worth the pick at #10

11. Kansas City (7-9) - Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College - This is the pick Todd McShay and the guy over at the Sporting News have right now in their mocks. Paired with Derrick Johnson, the Chiefs will rivalthe 49ers for the best ILB combo in the NFL.

12. Seattle (7-9) - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - Best player available; golden tate might get cut and is a borderline bust. Flynn will have plenty of weapons now...watch out!

13. Arizona (8-8) - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina - Arizona gets a new pass-rusher.

14. Dallas (8-8) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - Somebody is going to trade up for him if he slides past #6, but if there are no trades his firewall is Dallas at #14. Richardson and DeMarco Murray will terrorize opposing Front Sevens for a decade.

15. Philadelphia (8-8) - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State - beast in the middle.

16. New York Jets (8-8) - Stephen Hill, WR, Ga Tech - Big play potential WR lands in New York

17. Cincinnati - from Oakland (8-8) - David DeCastro, G, Stanford - Right where an elite guard should be draft -- in the mid-teens.

18. San Diego (8-8) - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama - Upgrade at pass-rush.

19. Chicago (8-8) - Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - Although they traded for Marshall, they still need help at WR, esp. with the uncertain future of Johnny Knox

20. Tennessee (9-7) - Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin - Eugene Amano is the worst Center in the NFL. Huge upgrade

21. Cincinnati* (9-7) - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama - big need for Cincy, Leon Hall is still out for a while

22. Cleveland - from Atlanta* (10-6) - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford - nooo! Cleveland gets a second weapon for McCoy. Cleveland had the lowest TE Production in the NFL

23. Detroit* (10-6) - Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama - Replaces Wright

24. Pittsburgh* (12-4) - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State - need upgrade at right tackle. Public interest in Adams from Steelers.

25. Denver* (8-8) - Devon Still, DT, Penn State - big body up front. Interior DL is much weaker than the edge rushers

26. Houston* (10-6) - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina - Replacement for Mario Williams...nobody expected him to fall this far

27. New England - from New Orleans* (13-3) - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama - best player available that fits a competitive position.

28. Green Bay* (15-1) - Mark Barron, SS, Alabama - don't know if Nick Collins is going to be OK - little depth at S

29. Baltimore* (12-4) - Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia - Replaces Grubbs as a rookie, can move to tackle long-term

30. San Francisco* (13-3) - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina - Not exactly what we were hoping for, but Gilmore is the BPA and can rotate into the secondary immediately. His size makes him a tempting free safety prospect in the long-run and he could provide depth there as a rookie. Other options are this pick are David Wilson, RB, VA Tech, or a guard such as Kevin Zeitler (WI) -- both are a reach at #30.

31. New England* (13-3) - Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois - Pass-rusher with raw skills that NE can rotate in.

32. New York Giants* (9-7) - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech - nice addition

Based on team needs and the types of players the 49ers prefer, I believe we're starting to see the 49ers first round draft board take shape.

To begin, I think there are a few players that the 49ers would trade up for if they were available in the 15 - 20 area:

- Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - Its clear we're scouting for the Feature RB of the Future, and if a Running Back like Richardson slipped into that range (Running Backs are notorious for slipping in the draft), we would pull the trigger.

- Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis - On the Defensive line, we have a lack of depth and Soap and RJF are free agents after 2012 -- moving up to snag Poe would make a lot of sense

- Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State - Same here; move up to get Soap's replacement

Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - we would have to carry 6 WRs, but I think that the team is willing to do that in order to get Floyd.

- David DeCastro, G, Stanford - Yeah, If David DeCastro fell to, say, Chicago at #19, the team would strongly consider making a move...although I'm a bit skeptical about their willingness to move up that far

- Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford - May sound unusual, but I don't think the 49ers are entirely opposed to moving Anthony Davis to Guard (he's a former guard anyway).

If any of the above players fell to the 15-20 range, the Niners would consider trading up.

The following players are those that the 49ers would take at #30:

- Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford - Harbaugh basically runs his offense with two starting tight ends, so we draft another starting tight end...Walker is not starting caliber

- Peter Konz, C/G, Wisconsin - Can compete to start at guard as a rookie, and will be the starting center of the future

- Mark Barron, SS, Alabama - Goldson is on a 1-year contract, Whitner is signed through 2013...there is nobody else there

- Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia - Unlikely to be there, but would start at RG on day 1.

- Dre Kirpatrick, CB, Alabama - This makes more sense than people think. More and more scouts are saying that Kirkpatrick could be an elite free safety with his size and range, and Chris Culliver was a Free Safety in College. So drafting Dre Kirkpatrick would give the 49ers two DBs that can play CB and FS at a high level. Makes more sense the more that I think about it.

If all these players are gone, we try and trade out of the first round. In the mid-second, I think the 49ers would target:

- Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin

- Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

- Alameda Ta'amu, NT, Washington

- Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson

- Kelechi Osemele, G, Iowa State

- Doug Martin, RB, Boise State

- Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Thoughts?

So, here's the narrative we hear from 49er Fans incessantly:
- Crabtree will never be a #1
- Manningham is overrated
- Moss is Washed up
- Williams needs to be cut (for some reason)
- Delanie Walker is Awesome! No reason to draft Coby Fleener

Well, I'm here to tell you that all of those are untrue with the exception of the Moss one - because I have no idea how much he has left in the tank. I will rely on Footballoutsiders.com to assess the performance of our receivers. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

Michael Crabtree - Crabtree improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011, after an even bigger improvement from 2009 to 2010. Extrapolating the trend, he should be a top 15 WR in 2012. On par with a Dez Bryant or something like that. method: I did a curve fit for 2009/10/11 stats and extrapolated the trend. Now, we can all throw stones at this extrapolation, but it is clear that Crabtree has the stuff to be a #1 and has improved a ton every year.

Mario Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Kyle Williams - On a per-play basis, Williams performed as well as Myles Austin and Torrey Smith. That's borderline #1 performance, for a little guy out of the slot that's 23 years old!

Randy Moss - total wild card in 2012

Walker - Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up!

** With the exception of Moss, Manningham is the "old man" of the receiver corps at the ripe old age of 25!

With Moss signed, Flanker and Split End are filled positions.

Even though Moss will probably be our #2 behind Crabtree, Moss will play the #1 position at Flanker because of his style of play -- Crabtree will be at Split End because he can handle the jam easier. Crabtree moved to the Z last November, which was a big deal for him, but he fits the Split End better. Flanker is more of a status thing anyway -- those lines are blurred nowadays.

so at this point, here is our depth chart:

Crabtree

Moss

*

Williams (slot)

*

For all those clamoring to re-sign Morgan, he simply does not fit anymore. What we are lacking is a receiver to play in the slot -- as a result Eddie Royal is probably the best fit. He also returns punts and kicks, so Ginn doesn't have to be re-signed. Optimally, I would like to sign Royal and re-sign Ginn -- our depth chart would look like this:

FL/Z: Moss

SE/X: Crabtree

SL: Royal

SL2: Williams

FL2: Ginn

SE2: Rookie -- or Delanie Walker

KR: Ginn

PR: Royal

KR2: Royal

PR2: Ginn

KR3: Williams

PR3: Williams

I have us taking Fleener as best player available at #30. Other notables:
- CLE reaches for Tannehill
- ARI reaches for Melvin Ingram
- CHI gambles on Stephen Hill at #19

I don't know what Cleveland is going to do, and that could end up setting the draft order. Don't be shocked if somebody trades up for Blackmon at #4

1. Indianapolis (2-14) - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2. Washington - from St. Louis (2-14) - Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor
3. Minnesota (3-13) - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
4. Cleveland (4-12) - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
5. Tampa Bay (4-12) - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
6. St. Louis - from Washington (5-11) - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
7. Jacksonville (5-11) - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
8. Miami (6-10) - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
9. Carolina (6-10) - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
10. Buffalo (6-10) - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
11. Kansas City (7-9) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
12. Seattle (7-9) - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
13. Arizona (8-8) - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
14. Dallas (8-8) - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
15. Philadelphia (8-8) - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
16. New York Jets (8-8) - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
17. Cincinnati - from Oakland (8-8) - Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
18. San Diego (8-8) - David DeCastro, G, Stanford
19. Chicago (8-8) - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
20. Tennessee (9-7) - Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia
21. Cincinnati* (9-7) - Mark Barron, SS, Alabama
22. Cleveland - from Atlanta* (10-6) - Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
23. Detroit* (10-6) - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
24. Pittsburgh* (12-4) - Kendall Wright, WR/KR, Baylor
25. Denver* (8-8) - Devon Still, DT, Penn State
26. Houston* (10-6) - Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
27. New England - from New Orleans* (13-3) - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
28. Green Bay* (15-1) - Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC
29. Baltimore* (12-4) - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
30. San Francisco* (13-3) -Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
31. New England* (13-3) - Michael Brockers, DE/DT, LSU
32. New York Giants* (9-7) - Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

I've heard for years that yards per point, or YPP, is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL, and that oddsmakers and professional sports bettors have been using the method for quite some time. The logic is that net YPP takes into account ALL aspects of the game, offense, defense, special teams, red zone performance, turnovers, and field position.

Since I can't wait for Sunday, I crunched the numbers today.

The 49ers had the #1 net YPP in the NFL regular season in 2011, which essentially means that the 49ers were the MOST COMPLETE TEAM IN THE NFL; Net YPP is defensive YPP allowed minus offensive YPP gained. This playoffs, every team with a better in-game net YPP won the game. Comparing total season Net YPP vs. winning percentage for teams that have made the playoffs, a linear regression yields an R^2 of over 0.8, which is very strong. If you add in Tennessee, it still stays above 0.8. And if you limit the data to the 20 teams that finished .500 or better, the R^2 is still 0.67.

If you dig into YPP, things begin to make sense. For example, the Patriots is #2 in YPP allowed (19.4 YPP) after the 49ers at 21. Both teams have incredible bend but don't break defense. For offense, the lower the number the better. The 49ers were #2 in the NFL in offensive YPP after the Packers, 12.9 and 11.8. The 49ers scored a point every.

The Giants are 29th in Net YPP this year, an outlier. Net YPP is only 0.33, but they're a league best 14.73 in the playoffs. Keep in mind that most of that metric comes from a whopping 105 Net YPP from the Atlanta game.

I firmly believe they will deviate back to the mean for the season. Playoff teams all revert back to their mean -- the Giants would be the only team NOT to do this...you can have one bad game (e.g. the 2011 Packers), but you can't just have an amazing playoffs. It doesn't work like that.

I live in Colorado, and I am barraged with Broncos coverage in my morning paper and on sports radio. I was fairly surprised when McDaniels was fired. He is an excellent coach who got a ton of production out of his players, but was given GM powers as a 32-year old rookie coach.

The Broncos probably have less talent on defense than any other team in the NFL with Elvis Dumervil out for the season, and their O-line was made up of backups and rookies outside of their pro bowl left tackle.

McDaniels brilliantly traded away Cutler for 2 #1s, a #2, a #3, and Kyle Orton...then got more production out of him than Cutler! He traded away Brandon Marshall and made Brandon Lloyd an all-pro. Peyton Hillis was a 'bad seed' in the locker room, and did not perform anywhere near that level while in Denver.

But he botched most of the draft picks. He traded away a 2010 #1 for a 2009 #2 that he spent on a safety that was cut after only a year. He traded up for Tebow, and it remains to be seen if that was a wise move or not. He did draft two really good WRs that will probably end up being good: Damaryius Thomas and Eric Decker...Thomas had a pretty good rookie season.

But on the field, he gets a lot out of his players, assuming that talent is there.

I'm a HUGE Harbaugh backer, but if he goes to Miami or Denver instead of the 49ers, McDaniels would do very well here if we don't give him any personnel powers...he should have never had such powers.

McDaniels would probably find a way to get Kyle Orton out here, and with our O-line, talent on defense, and WR corps, we will be MUCH MUCH better in 2011.

McDaniels haters do not understand what actually happened in Denver, and most of the local sports writers expected him to be stripped of his personnel powers after the season, but retained. Apparently they could not reach a deal on this, so he was released.

They're still on good terms, and I wouldn't be surprised if McDaniels got Orton for less than the 2nd rounder that they're asking for.

I consider option 2a or 2b after Harbaugh, tied with Brian Billick.

Based on Footballoutsiders.com's predictions, we have a 30.3% chance of making the playoffs, with the Seahawks at 39.6% and the Rams at 28.7%...the Cards are out of it.

So for all of you who refuse to believe that this team has a chance at winning this division, please read.

We are also the "hottest" team in the Division, with a weighted total performance of -4% (4% worse than the NFL, on average, would have performed in our situations). STL is -19%, Seattle is -30.2%, and ARI is -38.9%.

I don't really understand why people think Saint Louis is playing so well. Bradford piled up 300 yards against what Footballoutsiders considers the worst pass defense in the NFL, with opposing offenses performing 50% better than they would expect to against the League as a whole.

So what what is the big friggin deal about the Rams? They're going to get blown out by New Orleans and KC may very well run for 300 yards on them. We'll beat them head-to-head and win the division. Seattle might only win one more game (CAR).

The ugly truth is that we are a mediocre team, but the rest of the division is worse and its likely to play out that way...with us hosting a wild card game against New Orleans or Philly.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

So looking at FootballOutsiders.com, Tampa Bay is the worst team in the National Football League in stopping runs up the middle. In addition, Tampa's front four gets blown off the line by the opposition constantly -- worst in the NFL in adjusted line yards allowed.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

Since we run up the middle more than anyone else in the league, we're pretty good at it, and the Bucs run the Tampa 2 that leaves the middle open, Gore could have a monster game.

Tight Ends also do very well against the Cover 2, so look for Davis and Walker to have good games as well. Davis and Walker are BOTH Top 10 tight ends, according to FO.

Thoughts? The Fantasy Football Prognosticators all have Gore as the #1 or #2 back this week as well.

200 yards for gore?