SB Nation User Blog: nickler

QUESTIONS: Harden, Gorzelanny, Wells, Fukudome, Soriano, DISH

nickler — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 20:41:48 -0000

Hi, all. Just a few questions. As always, thanks for your insight.

1. How has Gorzelanny looked this year? I live in Cleveland and the scheduling never got so that I could watch him pitch. I was intrigued by the trade and hoped that he would do really well.

His ERA is an unimpressive 4.70; yet his WHIP is in the 1.2's and his SO/BB rate is nearly 4:1. How is this possible? Is he giving up home runs all the time??

How is his stuff, and what type of stuff does he have?

2. How has Fukudome looked recently? Is he still getting on base, or is he still doing that weird wild-swing thing where he screws himself into the ground? I think we're stuck with him for the entire length of contract, just wanted to know what you all thought of his progress. Do you think last years' meltdown is what we should be expecting, or do you think he's made a comeback?

3. I know there's been discussion about Harden before. I would hope we'd at least offer him arbitration and give the guy a chance if he's willing to take a one year deal. Why did he take himself out of the rotation? Is he hurt? I have seen some stuff about this, but can't find anything regarding the details.

4. Do you think we should trade Wells while his value is high? Personally, I really think we should. Some of his starts (i.e., those against teams who are not terrible) have really looked pretty shaky and there have been times that other teams have teed off on him. I would think we could get quite a nice package for him. I worry that if we hold him for too long, this season where he has exceeded expectations might come crashing down in a Rich Hill like fashion.

Are there any ways to determine if a pitcher's success is due to the fact that opposing players are simply not used to him (like stats over time to see if they get better or worse), or if a pitcher's success is only due to getting lucky? Is there a stat to look at this?

5. What are your thoughts on Ben Sheets? Do you think he'd take a one-year deal? Do you think he's worth a gamble. I know we tried this with Wade Miller and Mark Prior before, but if he's cheap enough, I would think it's an option worth investigating.

6. If you have DISH, and live outside of Chicago, is there any other way to get Cubs games? Does MLB network air actual baseball games or is all they show discussion and crap? Can I order CSN or FoxSportsChicago in Ohio? All I get to watch is WGN games and I hate watching games on my computer. Any thoughts?? Do I really have to change over to DIRECTV to get the Cubs games that I want?

Sometimes on DISH a baseball game will show up on Channel 400 or something under the title "ALT" Can I order these somehow? The idiots on the phone have no clue.

I have no loyalty to DISH, just hate the idea of having to change everything in my house. Their repair service (if something goes wrong) is really good too. They also have a very useful CHAT feature. How is DIRECTV's help line service?

7. Is an [Alfonso Soriano + prospect] for [Johan Santana + bad contract (like Oliver Perez or Luis Castillo)] trade that far off?

Soriano is what the Mets need: a big bat in the outfield who can drive in runs; they tried that with Gary Sheffield and, well, that guy is almost as big an unproductive jerk as Milton Bradley. Having an ace pitcher like Santana hasn't helped them for the past 2 years when he was in his prime. He clearly is not their answer, and they've put a huge amount of money into him. The Mets might buy the idea that Soriano was the pits this year because of his injury (I am not sure I buy into that to be honest).

Santana would fill a need for us for a top of the rotation starter (if he comes back healthy which is a gamble), and would allow us to place Fox in LF which seems to be the only postion he's comfortable playing. He also is coming off surgery, so the Mets really can't know what they're going to get and they have to be worried he might be in his decline.

Anyhow, I am sure that is a pipe dream but wanted to get your thoughts. And yes, I do think that the Mets might be stupid enough.

Thanks, as always for your wisdom!

OT: For those of you pissed off at the Cubs... ponder this.

nickler — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 10:29:01 -0000

I was just thinking about how annoyed I am at all the bad moves Cubs management (yes, that means you Mr. Hendry) have made over the past few years. Then, I managed to stumble across this. Having lived in KC, I occasionally follow the Royals.

Lucky me. A lifelong Cubs fan, then I live in KC for a few years to watch the Royals and see the Chiefs get dominated by the Broncos. Now, I live in Cleveland and my AL team is the Indians who just happen to be the team with the longest WS drought in baseball other than... well, you know that answer by now.

And of course I get to watch the Browns. Lovely.

Dayton Moore was just given a 4 year... FOUR YEAR... extension for his work on making the Royals the last place team in the entire league while increasing payroll dramatically.

http://kaegel.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/08/royals_to_extend_gm_moores_con.html

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/08/royals-to-extend-dayton-moore-through-2014.html

http://www.kansascity.com/news/breaking_news/story/1416151.html

WTF????? Makes me wonder how the hey the Glass family made the money they did. Are they on drugs??

Let's count the moves Mr. Moore has made:

1. Trading for Yuniesky Betancourt

2. Paying for Kyle Farnsworth-less

3. Paying for Juan Cruz (did he have to give up draft picks for this?)

4. Paying a LOT OF MONEY for Jose Guillen, who not only sucks but is also possibly a bigger psycho than Bradley

5. Trading for Mike Jacobs

6. Bringing in Sidney Ponson

7. Bringing in Willie Bloomquist

8. Wasting money on Leo Nunez and Dan Cortes

9. Trading Ramon Rodriguez for Coco Crisp

10. Trading for Yuniesky Betancourt (I have to include this one again, since it counts as two bad moves)

At least they win the award for "lowest OBP aquisitions, last 2 years." Good LORD.

I pity the fans of this sad, sad, sad organization. I feel like boycotting Wal-Mart just hearing about this.

Mr. Moore, for God's sake, will you please trade your pieces of value and start over like Pittsburgh. What on earth are you doing? Trying to drive Zach Greinke back into mental illness??

Maybe we can get in on that fire sale if it ever happens. A trade for DeJesus, anyone? Try to dump Bradley and put DeJesus in RF. Don't really need Teahen now that we have Baker.

[[ BTW, not to say "I told you so" but a while ago I had strongly, strongly suggested that we do whatever it takes to get Greinke, even trading both Hill and Pie for him. Now you know why. This kid had pretty unbelieveable ability from the start... even someone with my limited knowledge could see this even when he was getting beaten up at first. How Hendry could not have seen this, or how he could have felt that Hill and Pie were worth more is beyond me. ]]

Questions: Stats, bullpen, draft, 2B, SS

nickler — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 05:01:34 -0000

As always, thanks in advance for your wisdom.

1. What is the best indicator of a player's offensive ability? Some frequently say here that it is OPS. What is the league average OPS, i.e, what would be considered good and what would be considered lousy?

Also, what is considered a good SLG percentage, and what would be considered average?

I had really always thought it was just OBP (a Billy Beane-ism) but of course that doesn't take into consideration someone's power. It does really suck however, to watch someone who never gets on base.

2. What do you think they will do with the pen after this year? I would assume Gregg and Heilman will not be offered arbitration and that Marmol and Guzman will stay, and that Grabow will be offered arbitration. Do you think we go after a high priced closer, just use the players in the minors, or try to make a patchwork with low and middle-priced veterans on the FA market?

3. Do you think that this is the year we trade Marshall? I really think that he's maximizing his value now and that his value won't go up. Also, I don't think we need him with Grabow and Gorzelanny, and Wells has essentially taken his position in the rotation. Don't you think now we be the time to sell high and pull the trigger? Nobody thought we should trade Wells now that his value is high when I last asked.

4. I haven't been able to watch a whole lot of games, but have always been intrigued by Gorzelanny and have been hoping he'll be an ace for Chicago. In fact, I thought Pittsburgh was crazy to give up on him. His ERA has been poor, yet his numbers are impressive: WHIP of 1.17 and SO/BB ratio of 2.8... He's given up 25 hits and 3 HR in 30 IP. That seems pretty good to me. Why is his ERA so poor? Is he just getting unlucky and giving up hits in bunches? How has he looked to all of you? (What pitches does he have, how has his control/velocity been, what can he work on).

5. If a team cannot work out a deal with a draft pick (i.e., they are too cheap to work out a deal) can another team come in and draft them, or does the draft pick have to sit out a year? Also, how do draftings work with international players? Can't a team just pay a bunch of money to a foreign player they like (as with Fukudome or Matzusaka)? Why do some of the foreign players have do go through the draft? Why wasn't a player like Alexei Ramirez (a young, fast, good defensive SS-- something many teams are looking for) chased by a whole bunch of teams-- including the Cubs (i.e., how did the White Sox wind up with the guy)?

6. What do you all think the plan for 2B is next year? Do you really think that Fox is going to be our starting 2B, i.e., has this even been mentioned by management? Or do you think that Fox will be on the trade wire and that we will try to obtain a real 2B.

Don't you all think that, with Theriot's relative lack of range, that HE should be moved to 2B and that we should be looking at shortstops? This way we could use Baker as a utility player (which we were hoping to get Teahen for... actually, Baker's numbers are looking an awful lot like Teahen's) and perhaps have better defense up the middle.

Of course, the question would be who to shoot for as a SS...I know you will all think I'm crazy, but I'd take a flyer on Miguel Tejada for a one year deal. Because of his age, I don't think too many teams are going to be vying for him or willing to give him a big multi-year deal, and so he shouldn't cost that much. Even if he's lied about his age and is 40, the man can hit. We have some OBP guys in Ramirez, Lee, Bradley, Fukudome and Theriot. It seems like we need more help driving runs in.

Perhaps he can be next years' Orlando Hudson or Bobby Abreu (the guys nobody wanted and had an awesome year to help their teams reach the postseason). This is the type of move the Indians made when they signed players like Kevin Milwood, Scott Elarton, Joe Borowski (in 2007) and Carl Pavano (which worked since they were one year deals on guys with much to prove).

How is his defense, though? Is he a huge liability at this age? Is he any worse than Theriot?

Thanks again for all of your insight!!

Questions: Soriano, Dempster, Wells, Soto, Harden

nickler — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 00:06:38 -0000

As always, thanks for your wisdom. Forgive me if the questions are inane. A great baseball mind I am not.

1. Is Alfonso Soriano a tradeable player? I know it would seem like there would be no way, but the Mets are in dire need of help in the OF and have a long track record of being willing to take on large contracts. While I know that this is not just a large contract (it's an insane contract) I would wonder if they wouldn't be willing to trade with the Cubs. They have bad contract of their own to dump. Certainly, he has the ability to provide great offense, and I can't see the Mets being happy with Jeff Francoer or Cory Sullivan or wanting to keep Gary Sheffield around.

They have their fair share of players/ pitchers with injury issues (Rodriguez, Santana, Beltran, etc.) and with huge contracts with whom they have not been winners. I would think they would want somewhat of a change and the free agent offerings are slim this year. Would they want to trade their overpriced question marks with ours?

Would it even be a good idea to trade Soriano at this point? He has been a big part of the reason we did well the last two years and made the playoffs. Would it be better to chalk this up to a lousy year for him and hope that he returns to his baseline next year?

2. Does Dempster have a NTC? If not, is he worth "selling" to another team as part of a deal to release Soriano or shed salary? His numbers are respectable this year, but I don't see him as a top of the line starter, and particularly if we can hold onto Harden, I would think it would be him that would be the best choice to go.

The free agent pitcher choices this coming year are thin, and I think he'd be a consideration for quite a few teams.

3. What do you all think of Randy Wells? A great year and a great story, but is he going to become the next Rich Hill, or do you think he has staying power? Did he just catch lightning in a bottle? Would it be a good time to trade Wells or does he project to a reliable starter in the future?

4. As for Soto, again, do you think he just had a great year that will not be repeated, or is he worth holding on to? The Cubs seem to win when Koyie Hill plays and he certainly has been competent. Is this another chance to sell high? That said, I wonder if any other teams would want him given the year (or non-year) he has had. Would he even have any value after this absolutely crappy year?

5. How has Gorzelanny looked out there? I thought the Pirates were crazy letting him go at first, but his numbers sure aren't too gaudy right now. Is he pitching well and throwing strikes? What have you all thought? I have been, and still am, very hopeful that he might be a very solid core for the future rotation.

Thanks again for all of your wisdom!

Questions: 2B, Carroll, Gorzellany, Rhodes

nickler — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:11:22 -0000

1. Did anyone see Gorzellany pitch last night? What type of pitches does he have? I wish I had the chance, but we didn't get the game here. It sounds like he was really impressive.

What on earth were the Pirates thinking giving him up? Did they like Josh Harrison that much? Gorz had a great year in 2007, is the same age as Hart, and was doing great in AAA seemingly on his way to becoming the same pitcher he was before. For a young lefty who is under team control for many more years, it seems hard to understand how they could give him up like that.

Case in point: how good was Zach Duke the last 2 years? Wouldn't they want to hold onto him?

2. 2B seems to be a black hole for the team. Why not consider someone like Jamey Carroll of the Indians? At least the guy gets on base reliably. The other possibility would be Omar Infante, although I'm not sure Atlanta would give him up. Right about now, I really wish we would have just held onto the guy.

Even Michael Eckstein might be an upgrade... he has actually hit pretty well outside of Petfield (although that's really weird, since he is a slap hitter kind of guy and you'd expect the field shouldn't make that much of a difference).

I was hoping Fontenot would be good on an every day basis, but he has really disappointed.

3. As the bullpen is having problems, what about someone like Arthur Rhodes or David Weathers? I am thinking of people who might actually pass waivers.

It was my understanding that Hendry has some extra bucks to play with (I think we was going after Teahen) and people like this shouldn't cost a whole lot of dollars or prospects.

Thanks for your wisdom, as always!

Questions: Stevens, Ryan, Lugo, Fontenot

nickler — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 05:36:45 -0000

Hello; hope you don't mind if I ask a few questions.

Thanks in advance for your wisdom!

1. How has Fontenot been hitting on days he has played his natural position (2B) vs. 3B? Is there a way to look this up? I would be very interested to see if perhaps his slump as due to playing a position he was not accustomed to or comfortable with, i.e., being forced into the 3B position because of the Ramirez injury. Certainly, he seems to be doing much better lately.

2. Why not take a flyer on Julio Lugo? His line this year is: .287/.352/.367. Yes, that's not great, but it beats what we get out of Blanco/Miles. And he could act as a backup SS which we really don't have, or be an option to replace whoever is slumping at 2B. It would seem like a very low-risk high potential reward type deal. I would think the Red Sox would take just about anyone for Lugo at this point since they are on the hook for his salary with no return if no trade gets made.

3. How has Stevens looked? I did not get the chance to see him pitch and I have been very excited about this prospect. He was looking great when we heard news of him here in Cleveland. I think his first game was Saturday against the Nats. Was he impressive?

Ironically, the Indians traded exactly what they have needed this year (relief pitching) to the Cubs for exactly what WE needed (a reliable 2B that can play other positions and substitute at 3B).

4. Any word on how BJ Ryan has looked? That's another one I'm very hopeful about (see Eyre, Scott 2008 Phillies. I still cannot believe we let him go to make room for Neal Cotts...) Hopefully, he can turn things around like Eyre did last year.

5. How has Jake Fox looked when playing 3B this year? I asked this before, after he had only played a couple games. Now that he has played a few more at 3B how has he done? Is he a realistic substitute for the position in the future?

6. Is Angel Guzman a free agent after this year? I sure hope this is not his last year with the team and that he tries to rake the team for money when this is the first time he has ever contributed.

7. Does David Patton need to stay on the roster the entire year or only for 52 games? I thought he only needed to stay for 52 games to stay with the team. If so, can't we now demote him to the minors and still keep rights to him?

Hello; hope you don't mind if I ask a few questions.

Thanks in advance for your wisdom!

Ironically, the Indians traded exactly what they have needed this year (relief pitching) to the Cubs for exactly what WE needed (a reliable 2B that can play other positions and substitute at 3B).

6. Is Angel Guzman a free agent after this year? I sure hope this is not his last year with the team and that he tries to rake the team for money when this is the first time he has ever contributed.

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.352

.367

284

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Questions-- Fox, 2nd base, ownership

nickler — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 07:19:57 -0000

Hello;

I haven't been able to keep up as much as I would like, so if these are stupid questions, please forgive my ignorance.

1. I read that Fox has finally played 3rd base now. How did he do? Was his defense awful or serviceable? Maybe if Fontenot goes back to his normal position, he'll hit better like we all hoped he would. I had thought this would be a good idea for a while, and wanted to know what you all thought.

2. As for 2B, why wouldn't anyone consider Ray Durham? He actually played pretty well last year (I thought so, at least). At least as a stopgap, why wouldn't the Cubs consider this? I know there are money issues, but how much could the guy possibly cost? I mean, it's June and I think he's still not signed. How much could he possibly be asking for? And wouldn't he want to sign just to prove that he can still play a la Jim Edmonds (possibly to get a contract for next year?)

For everyone who would note that he would cost $$, I would wonder how much he could possibly be asking for given his situation ($1-2 million?), and that we paid $750K to Paul Bako to do nothing. Wouldn't Hendry have the flexibility to do this much?! 2nd base is a disaster!

I am still wondering how we could give Miles that kind of money and not at least look into Orlando Hudson.

3. I am sure this has been discussed before, but I can't find it on the search engine on this website. With Vizcaino, he was actually posting a decent ERA (the rare times they actually threw him out there) when we released him. We received nothing in return. If they were essentially not going to give him a chance, why didn't they just release him before the season and keep Gaudin? Not that Gaudin is any better, but they were sitting there hemming and hawing about Guzman vs. Gaudin at the start of the season. If you aren't going to give Vizcaino a realistic chance, why not release him and not worry about making a difficult decision between two young pitchers? Thank goodness they didn't let Guzman go.

4. Any word on ownership and what is holding this up? There has been nothing in the news about this for a while. I thought that JP Morgan/Chase agreed to finance the deal and that this was done. What is the problem now?

Thanks again for all your wisdom, and sorry for asking things that may very well have been discussed elsewhere but that I can't seem to find.

Nickler

Hello;

I haven't been able to keep up as much as I would like, so if these are stupid questions, please forgive my ignorance.

I am still wondering how we could give Miles that kind of money and not at least look into Orlando Hudson.

Thanks again for all your wisdom, and sorry for asking things that may very well have been discussed elsewhere but that I can't seem to find.

Nickler

Questions: Jones, Miles, Gregg

nickler — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 17:49:31 -0000

Hello;

Just a few questions.

1. Andruw Jones-- It says here that the Dodgers somehow got Jones to agree to a markedly reduced salary:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9023406/Report:-Dodgers,-Jones-agree-to-restructure-contract?MSNHPHMA

How is this possible? I mean, can we just ask Soriano: "Hey, do you mind taking less money or leaving the Cubs"? I thought you can't do this unless in the NFL. If this is possible, why doesn't everyone start doing this to underperformers????

2. Aaron Miles is someone everyone seems really down on. Why is this? He seems to have an outstanding OBP which with our power hitters in the lineup is what we need much more of. He seems fine defensively. He is younger than DeRosa. Why did the Cardinals let their starting 2B go like that?

People were not that happy with the DeRosa signing when Hendry put him on board and he did great...

3. Is Gregg really that bad of a pickup? We let Howry and Eyre go, and Hendry seemed to want to let Wood go so he could cash in on what will likely be his last long term big money deal. I don't think there would be any way the Cubs could match what the Indians offered.

So given this, Gregg seems to have the same ERA with a WHIP equal to Francisco Rodriguez... with Marmol as the closer now, didn't we need someone like this anyway? With Wood destined to leave and Howry going, I thought it was a good move. Yet most of you think it was terrible.

Thanks again for your wisdom.

Who is your AL team?

nickler — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:27:43 -0000

We all know you root for the Cubs in the NL. For the sake of my sanity, in case the Cubs stink it up, I need to have an AL team to root for as well. I typically root for the Indians, as I live in Cleveland, which is just like me since they have the SECOND longest drought in history. Speaking of which, although the Indians lost to the Red Sox last yaer, none of us were pissed off. They fought hard, beat the Yankees and gave us a great year and great postseason. It was not the abomination that was the Cubs' 2008 postseason. Anyhow, just wanted to get a feel to see who y'all root for in the AL. And don't tell me it's the Rays.

Possible solution: trade with KC?

nickler — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:26:28 -0000

I think it's been established that we are in dire need of a LH bat that can actually produce.

What about at trade with KC? I am hoping that the right combination of players might make David DeJesus available. He is rapidly becoming too expensive for that team, plays a position we need (CF) and is a good high OBP hitter with speed. I know Hendry was interested in him before. I just wish we had a chance to get him earlier.

I think there a just a few holes in this team. If we could sign Furcal for SS, trade Theriot, Marshall, Pie [and others if necessary] for DeJesus, keep DeRosa at 2B we would have a 1 and 2 slot that could actually reach base and set the table for the power hitters.

I really see a trade as mandatory for this offense. Kansas City is a perfect target since they desperately need to rebuild. I wonder if we have enough parts to land both Greinke and DeJesus. I'd be willing to give up Samardzija, Fontenot, ANYONE for that combination.

If there is anything this year did for us, it did allow us to showcase some of our young talent who actually did pretty well for a possible trade.

Yes, I know what you are thinking. I still do believe. As sad as that is.