SB Nation User Blog: nickt84

The Shift - Evaluating the Offense Weeks 1 - 4

nickt84 — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 13:12:36 -0000

During the course of the season, like many of you, I noticed our team had shifted numerous times both offensively and defensively. Not only did our formations change, but our scheme, our game-plans, our plays, who started, who was injured, etc. Symbolic of the Presidential race, our team seemed to be in flux and a major change was occurring and even more change was destined (allegedly). When I decided to put these statistics together and analyze how there was a shift from week to week on all sides of the ball - the team had direction. We all knew months before the regular season began that this was going to be a rough year defensively but a good year offensively; maybe we didn't know just how bad our defense would be or how good our offense would be - but we had an inkling.

via web1.denverbroncos.com

My point is that there was direction. We knew what Shanahan was doing and what would happen this year in the rebuilding season - defense, defense, defense. However, we didn't know that our team was going through as much change as it did as Shanahan was shortly fired and a new leader was installed. Is our offense set? Will McDaniels call the same type of plays that Bates did? What about the offensive scheme - before we didn't need a stellar running back; just someone to pick up 3 or 4 yards and come up with 100 yard games and keep the defense's honest. With McDaniels, will we suddenly need a stud running back that we have to invest a high draft pick into?

What about defensively; we now have more questions about the defense then we did before. We do know that it can't get much worse than it was in 2008 and while there seems to be a buzz about switching to a 3-4, will that really be what we do? What kind of a 3-4 will we run if we do switch? What about personnel? Studs like D.J. Williams were considered a shoe-in to make the team in 2009, if nothing more than the drama we've put him through; but what about now? Does D.J. really fit into a 3-4? Everyone is clamoring for Elvis Dumervil and Jarvis Moss to be moved to OLB in our 3-4 which would indicate that everyone wants a blitz heavy 3-4 defense; will this happen?

By analyzing this shift that our team went through this year; we have as much information as our new coaches do. What decisions they decide to make are up to them; however we will be just as informed as them. It's easy to be an armchair quarterback and talk about what the Bronco's should have done during the year; now we are no longer armchair quarterbacks. We are the individuals who are just as informed as our new coaches and our opinions and decisions are as informed as theirs.

Weeks 1 through 4 were arguably our best of the season. Our offense was stunning everyone, bloggers and commentators were struggling to update their outdated notes, we were climbing in power polls; life was good.

Week 1 saw us dismantle the Oakland Raiders. We all knew that we would win this game but the spanking we distributed to the faders was great. I spent most of the game standing on my feet in front of the TV, jumping up and down, beer in hand, my free hand raised above my head in a fist of jubilation most of the time, and thinking that Eddie Royal should be running for President. Jay Cutler was on fire, proving the talking heads wrong about his diabetes, our offense was shining, and the faders couldn't find their heads from their butts. Some of the game stats and notes from Week 1:

Denver trounced Oakland 41 to 14.
Jay Cutler had an almost perfect night throwing for an even 300 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, a solid 66% completion percentage, and an outstanding 137.5 Quarterback Rating.
6 different players touched the ball rushing for 141 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an OK 4.1 rushing average.
The world met Eddie Royal as he torched the Raiders' precious off-season acquisition DeAngelo Hall for 9 catches, 146 yards, and 1 touchdown.
While we only boasted a 50% third down conversion rating, we averaged almost 7.5 yards per offensive play - mostly inflated for some of the big plays we had.
Denver's offensive lined, christened the Secret Service, allows no sacks.

Week 2 saw arguably one of the most exciting games of the year as the Broncos scraped by the Chargers 39 to 38. While this game will always be overshadowed by the Ed Hochuli call, the Denver offense again showed up for the comeback of Brandon Marshall. After being suspended for 1 game, Marshall showed everyone that he was here to stay as he caught 18 passes and ran rampant in the San Diego secondary. The game went down to the final wire, the excitement amplified by the blown call by Hochuli that kept a Denver fumble recovered by San Diego on our game winning drive in Denver hands. While Ed did make an initially bad call, mistakes happen, and everyone could see how he made the call standing behind Cutler and the rules did not permit him to correct his mistake:

Jay Cutler showed everyone that he was an undeniable leader of the team. With his shoulders burdened with responsibility and hope, he throws the ball 50 times, throwing only 1 interception, 350 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a studly 109.6 Quarterback Rating.
Our running game again finds a way as 3 running backs and Jay rush for 145 yards, 1 touchdown, a very respectable 6 yards per carry average, and even Selvin Young showed up breaking a 49 yard run loose.
Brandon Marshall runs freely through the secondary challenging anyone to cover him as he catches 18 passes for 166 yards and a very exciting touchdown pass in the corner of the end zone.
Eddie Royal shows that he wasn't a fluke as he catches the game winning touchdown and then the 2 point conversion on the next play running the exact same play and route as he did on the touchdown pass.
The Denver offense seems in control the entire day as they possess the ball a solid 8 minutes more than San Diego.
Denver struggles on third down efficiency boasting only a 40% conversion rate.
One of the chronic problems of the Broncos last year, their red zone efficiency, seems to be a distant memory with an impressive 83% efficiency rate and a solid 100% Goal-to-Go rating.
The Secret Service again allows no sacks although an official sack is recorded as Jay scrambles out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage.

Week 3 was another nail-biter on home field. Perhaps a little distracted from the coverage of the Hochuli call during the San Diego game, the Denver offense is not the crisp, mistake free, scoring machine they were in the previous 2 games; while Denver wins the game 34 to New Orleans' 32, Denver only boasts 3 offensive touchdowns and 369 yards:

The Denver offense starts off in a hurry throwing up 24 points in the first half but only 10 in the second half and none in the 4^th quarter.
Jay Cutler struggles a little bit compared to his statistical dominance in the previous weeks; 61% completion percentage, 264 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 93.3 Quarterback rating.
The running game struggles a bit rushing for only 105 yards, 31% of which came on 2 plays, rushes for 1 touchdown, and boasts a very average 4.4 yards per carry.
The Red Zone efficiency struggles a bit at only 40%.

The Secret Service continues to shine allowing no sacks.

Week 4 was a total collapse offensively and the talking heads and bloggers quickly jumped and declared Denver's offensive dominance a mistake as it fails to show up against Kansas City losing decidedly 19 to 33. Everyone expected Denver to win the game and Week 4's loss would start the trend that Denver cursed themselves' with; losing easy games and listening to the media too much. Perhaps it was the effect of a young team, lack of strong vocal and veteran leadership, a lack of preparation by the coaches, or a combination of all; but this was easily Denver's worse game offensively in the first quarter of the season:

Denver rushes for only 94 total yards, 0 touchdowns, a 4.4 yard per carry rushing average, and inconsistency as we receive 38% of our rushing total on 2 plays.
Jay Cutler struggles and while he throws for 361 yards, his highest total yet, all other categories are his worse yet: 59% completion percentage, 1 touchdown to Brandon Marshall, 2 interceptions, and a 71.9 Quarterback Rating.
Denver seems to think they can win without having the ball as they gladly give it to Kansas City 4 times during the game.
Denver allows Derrick Johnson to record 6 tackles, a ½ sack, an interception, and a forced fumble.
The Secret Service falters allowing their first legitimate mistake and allowing a single sack.

The following are Jay Cutler's statistics over the first quarter of the season:

Jay Cutler Statistics Weeks 1 - 4
	Attempts	Completions	Comp %	Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Long	QB Rating
Week 1	24	16	66%	300	2	0	72	137.5
Week 2	50	36	72%	350	4	1	34	109.6
Week 3	34	21	62%	264	2	1	35	93.3
Week 4	49	29	59%	361	1	2	40	71.9
Average	39	26	67%	319	2	1	72	103.1

The following are arguably one of the best receiving corps in the NFL through the first 4 weeks:

Reception Statistics Weeks 1 - 4
	Receptions	Yards	Average	Long	Touchdowns
Brandon Marshall	31	398	15.3	35	3
Eddie Royal	27	298	9.5	29	2
Tony Scheffler	12	194	16.2	72	2
Brandon Stokley	15	181	12.3	32	0
Daniel Graham	6	72	12	21	0
Michael Pittman	3	53	17.6	40	0
Darryl Jackson	1	48	48	48	1
Selvin Young	2	15	7.5	8	0
Nate Jackson	4	12	3.2	6	1
Peyton Hillis	1	4	4	4	0
Total	102	1,275	12.5	72	9

The following are the rushing statistics of the Broncos through weeks 1 through 4:

Rushing Statistics Weeks 1 - 4
	Attempts	Yards	Average	Long	TD
Selvin Young	37	228	6.2	49	1
Andre Hall	27	131	4.9	16	0
Michael Pittman	23	80	3.5	18	4
Jay Cutler	10	28	2.8	11	0
Eddie Royal	3	15	5	7	0
Peyton Hillis	3	14	5.7	5	0
Brandon Marshall	1	-11	-11	-11	0
Total	104	485	4.7	49	5

Finally, some team offensive statistics for the first 4 weeks of the 2008 season:

Team Offensive Statistics Weeks 1 - 4
	Total Yards	Passing Yards	Rushing Yards	Yards per Play	3rd down conversion %	Rushing 1^st downs	Passing 1^st downs	Red Zone Efficiency	Goal to Go %	Field Goal	Turnovers	Time of Possession
Week 1	441	300	141	7.5	50%	10	10	3-4-75%	3-4-75%	2-2	0	29:50
Week 2	486	341	145	6.5	40%	9	20	5-6-83%	4-4-100%	1-1	1	34:00
Week 3	369	264	105	6.4	60%	7	11	2-5-40%	2-3-67%	2-2	2	27:12
Week 4	446	352	94	6.2	43%	5	17	1-4-25%	0-1-0%	4-5	4	26:37
Average	436	314	121	6.7	48%	8	15	11-19-58%	9-12-75%	9-10	2	29:24

I think that it is hard to establish any kind of trend after only 4 games; while this series is called ‘The Shift' it's hard to establish any kind of shift after 4 games. It is possible to notice a trend from week to week and if there is any one word that describes our offense, both on an individual and team effort, it is decline. Did opposing teams start to figure out how to slow down our juggernaut offense after watching us dismantle Oakland on national television? Or did the Broncos start to do what they seemed to do all year and beat themselves? The Quarterback is the field general and commands his troops on the field, as so eloquently described by the late, great, George Carlin.

While Jay Cutler's statistics declined, are his statistics the rewards of how his team performed around him or are the team's statistics the rewards of how Jay Cutler performed for them? Weeks 1 - 4 were the high of the high for our season with a sharp pain in the final week of the first quarter of the city. Kansas City was supposed to be one of our easiest games of the year but we shot ourselves in the foot; over and over and over. Sound indicative of any other time during the season?

Next week we will analyze how our defense played over the same span of the season and set the groundwork demonstrating ‘The Shift' that they displayed during the 2008 season.

Poll

Weeks 1 - 4 saw the Denver Broncos take off like a round out of a high powered rifle then slow down to a mediocre 9mm. What happened?

Jay Cutler came in as the underdog, then the attention got to him.

11 votes

The Denver Broncos (players) came in as the underdog, then the attention got to them.

30 votes

The Denver Broncos (staff) came in as the underdog, then the attention got to them.

5 votes

Teams started to gameplan against us well - it was time to shift.

167 votes

We got lucky then not so lucky.

50 votes

The 10th planet, Dysnomia, aligned in mathametical disposition to the sun affecting the gravitational pull on the skulls of the players thus making them stupider.

34 votes

If I knew, I'd probably be working for the Denver Broncos.

40 votes

Something else (please explain below).

29 votes

366 votes | Poll has closed

NFLTA: Who will emerge in '09?

nickt84 — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 17:36:39 -0000

NFLTA: Who will emerge in '09?

What the hell? He emerged in April of 2008 but whatever. At least he got some props. If he doesn't get into the Pro Bowl next year it's on like Donkey Kong.

Bowlen begins search for Shanahan's replacement in New York

nickt84 — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 15:48:10 -0000

Bowlen begins search for Shanahan's replacement in New York

Good run down of the Head Coaching interview schedule:

Spagnuolo - Saturday (in NY)
McDaniels - Sunday (in NE)
Morris - Wednesday (in DEN)
Stoops
Garrett - Next week

Assuming Assists are Bad Makes an Ass of U and Me

nickt84 — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:19:13 -0000

When you go through and look at defensive stats, there are all kinds of interesting things to look at that tell a defensive story. However, trying to understand that defensive story can be like trying to read it in Mandarin Chinese. Is a high number of passes defensed good or bad? If it's high, does that mean that the defensive player is not very good and offenses are picking on that player? If it's low does it mean that the defensive player is so bad that he can't defend any passes or does it mean that offenses just don't throw his way?

What about QH (Quarterback Hits); does a high number of QH and a low number of sacks mean that the player does not get there quite fast enough and therefore a slow player? Or is it more of, "well at least he did get there, albeit it wasn't fast enough..."? Finally what about assisted tackles? Are assists something you want to see a lot of, or not a lot of? Or does it matter based on position; would you rather see your DL with assists and your LB's without assists or the other way around?

Find out after the bump...

2008 Denver Bronco Defensive Statistics Through 13 Games
Player	Total Tackles	Solo	Assisted	Sacks	Forced Fumbles
Jamie Winborn	80	59	21	0	0
D.J. Williams	77	57	20	2	0
Marquand Manuel	74	56	18	0	0
Wesley Woodyard	48	44	4	0	0
Dre' Bly	50	42	8	0	1
Nate Webster	65	41	24	2	1
Karl Paymah	36	32	4	0	0
Boss Bailey	40	31	9	0	1
Marlon McCree	29	23	6	0	0
Champ Bailey	28	23	5	0	1
Ebenezer Ekuban	26	22	4	4	0
John Engelberger	25	19	6	1	1
Spencer Larsen	22	19	3	0	0
Marcus Thomas	27	17	10	0	0
Dewayne Robertson	19	16	3	0	0
Josh Bell	18	15	3	0	0
Kenny Peterson	20	14	6	3	1
Elvis Dumervil	20	13	7	5	1
Mario Haggan	13	12	1	1	0
Jack Williams	12	12	0	0	0
Calvin Lowry	18	11	7	0	0
Niko Koutouvides	12	11	1	0	0
Jarvis Moss	12	10	2	2	0
Louis Green	9	7	2	0	0
Vernon Fox	8	7	1	0	0
Josh Barrett	8	5	3	0	0
Nic Clemons	8	3	5	0	0
Josh Shaw	2	1	1	0	0
Totals	806	622	184	20	7

As you can see, 23% of the total tackles on this team were not solo tackles. But what does that mean? Does it mean that players are whiffing on tackles and require another defender to assist or does it mean that defenders are swarming to the ball carrier?

More intriguing, how does one explain the large disparity between different players and the ratio of assists versus solo tackles. Wesley Woodyard had only 8% of his total tackles assisted whereas Nate Webster had 37% of his total tackles assisted. And we cannot say that it is position related because DJ Williams had 26% of his total tackles assisted and Spencer Larsen had 13% of his total tackles assisted. Then you have anomalies like Jack "JMFW" Williams that have a 0% assisted tackle ratio. Speaking of Nate Webster, we now pause for a Nate Webster Helmet moment brought to by Reebok Chinstraps Inc.

via cache.gettyimages.com

I want to focus on our Rushing Defense because our defensive problems all seem to stem from our inability to stop the run, forcing us to put a Safety in the box, putting our DB's in winless battles, giving us a poor Pass Defense; you've heard the song and dance already. In order to get to the bottom of this assisted tackle dilemma, I think we need to put these assists into perspective and compare our top 3 rushing defensive performances and our bottom 3 rushing defensive performances. Since it's always good to end on a good note (like our season *fingers crossed*), let's start with the bad:

Week 4 - Den 19 @ KC 33 - KC Rushes For 213 Yards
Player	Total Tackles	Solo	Assisted	Sacks	Forced Fumbles
Marquand Manuel	9	7	2	0	0
Boss Bailey	8	8	0	0	0
DJ Williams	6	6	0	0	0
Dre Bly	6	5	1	0	0
Champ Bailey	6	4	2	0	1
Marcus Thomas	5	4	1	0	0
Kenny Peterson	4	3	1	1	0
Marlon McCree	4	3	1	0	0
Nate Webster	4	3	1	0	0
John Engelberger	3	2	1	0	0
Jack Williams	2	2	0	0	0
Nic Clemons	2	1	1	0	0
Jarvis Moss	1	1	0	0	0
Totals	60	49	11	1	1

In the Kansas City game, 18% of our tackles were assisted and we got run over.

Week 7 - Den 7 @ NE 41 - NE Rushes for 257 Yards
Player	Total Tackles	Solo	Assisted	Sacks	Forced Fumbles
DJ Williams	16	10	6	0.5	0
Calvin Lowry	12	7	5	0	0
Jamie Winborn	8	4	4	0.5	0
Marcus Thomas	6	4	2	0	0
Nate Webster	6	3	3	1	0
Marquand Manuel	5	5	0	0	0
Elvis Dumervil	5	2	3	2	0
Louis Green	4	3	1	0	0
Ebenezer Ekuban	3	3	0	1	0
Jarvis Moss	3	1	2	0.5	0
Dre Bly	2	2	0	0	0
Kenny Peterson	2	2	0	0	0
Dewayne Robertson	2	1	1	0.5	0
Champ Bailey	2	0	2	0	0
Jack Williams	1	1	0	0	0
Karl Paymah	1	1	0	0	0
Totals	78	49	29	6	0

In the New England game, 37% of our tackles were assisted and we got run over worse than the Kansas City game.

Week 10 - Den 34 @ Cle 30 - Cle Rushes For 160 Yards
Player	Total Tackles	Solo	Assisted	Sacks	Forced Fumbles
Jamie Winborn	13	12	1	0	0
Wesley Woodyard	10	10	0	0	0
Marquand Manuel	10	9	1	0	0
Dre Bly	5	5	0	0	1
Karl Paymah	5	4	1	0	0
Calvin Lowry	3	2	1	0	0
Louis Green	2	1	1	0	0
Elvis Dumervil	1	1	0	0	0
Kenny Peterson	1	1	0	0	0
Dewayne Robertson	1	1	0	0	0
John Engelberger	1	1	0	0	0
Ebenezer Ekuban	1	1	0	0	0
Nic Clemons	1	0	1	0	0
Niko Koutouvides	1	0	1	0	0
Totals	55	48	7	0	0

In the Cleveland game we only gave up 160 total yards of rushing which really isn't that bad in my opinion but still qualifies as the last of the bottom 3. In the Cleveland game, only 13% of the tackles were assisted - the lowest number yet.

So now that we've shuddered our way through our bottom 3 rushing defensive performances, we get to bask in our top 3 rushing defensive performances.

Week 2 - SD 38 @ Den 39 - SD Only Rushes For 80 Yards
Player	Total Tackles	Solo	Assisted	Sacks	Forced Fumbles
Champ Bailey	6	6	0	0	0
Boss Bailey	6	5	1	0	0
DJ Williams	5	4	1	0	0
Dre Bly	5	3	2	0	0
Marquand Manuel	5	3	2	0	0
Marlon McCree	4	4	0	0	0
Karl Paymah	3	3	0	0	0
Nate Webster	3	3	0	0	0
John Engelberger	1	1	0	1	0
Ebenezer Ekuban	1	1	0	0	0
Calvin Lowry	1	1	0	0	0
Totals	40	34	6	1	0

We hold San Diego and their train wreck of a team to 80 yards rushing and 15% of our tackles are assisted.

Week 9 - Mia 26 @ Den 17 - Mia Only Rushes For 75 Yards
Player	Total Tackles	Solo	Assisted	Sacks	Forced Fumbles
Karl Paymah	12	11	1	0	0
Jamie Winborn	8	4	4	0	0
DJ Williams	8	4	4	0	0
Nate Webster	7	3	4	0	0
Jarvis Moss	4	4	0	2	0
Marlon McCree	4	4	0	0	0
Ebenezer Ekuban	4	3	1	1	0
Dewayne Robertson	4	3	1	0	0
Dre Bly	3	2	1	0	0
Elvis Dumervil	3	2	1	0	0
Marquand Manuel	2	1	1	0	0
Josh Bell	1	1	0	0	0
Marcus Thomas	1	1	0	0	0
Louis Green	1	1	0	0	0
Nic Clemons	1	0	1	0	0
Totals	63	44	19	3	0

While we lose to Miami, we only give up 75 rushing yards against the Wildcat Formation and 30% of our tackles are assisted.

Week 14 - KC 17 @ Den 24 - KC Only Rushes For 83 Yards
Player	Total Tackles	Solo	Assisted	Sacks	Forced Fumbles
Wesley Woodyard	8	7	1	0	0
Josh Bell	6	5	1	0	0
Jamie Winborn	4	3	1	0	0
Marquand Manuel	4	1	3	0	0
Dre Bly	3	3	0	0	0
Ebenezer Ekuban	3	3	0	0	0
Josh Barrett	2	2	0	0	0
Vernon Fox	2	2	0	0	0
Marcus Thomas	2	1	1	0	0
Elvis Dumervil	1	1	0	1	0
Karl Paymah	1	1	0	0	0
Mario Haggan	1	1	0	0	0
Dewayne Robertson	1	1	0	0	0
Jack Williams	1	1	0	0	0
Nate Webster	1	0	1	0	0
Totals	40	32	8	1	0

In the most recent victory against Kansas City with the leading rushing Quarterback in the NFL and the same running back that torched us in Week 4, 20% of the tackles were assisted.

So there are the top 3 and the bottom 3 rushing defensive performances by the Denver Broncos so far this year; but what does it all mean? In our worst performances, we averaged 23% assisted tackles compared to our best performances averaging 22% assisted tackles; hardly definitive. What happens if we break down our top and bottom 3 even more; by unit?

Our bottom 3:

Kansas City - DL 26% assisted, LB 6% assisted, S 23% assisted, CB 21% assisted
New England - DL 38% assisted, LB 41% assisted, S 29% assisted, CB 33% assisted
Cleveland - DL 16% assisted, LB 11% assisted, S 15% assisted, CB 10% assisted

Out top 3:

San Diego - DL 0% assisted, LB 14% assisted, S 20% assisted, CB 14% assisted
Miami - DL 23% assisted, LB 50% assisted, S 16% assisted, CB 13% assisted
Kansas City - DL 14% assisted, LB 23% assisted, S 33% assisted, CB 9% assisted

Top 3 / Bottom 3 Defensive Assisted Tackles Comparison
	Defensive Line	Linebackers	Safeties	Cornerbacks
Bottom 3	27%	19%	22%	21%
Top 3	12%	29%	23%	12%

I love doing these statistical posts because I love doing the number crunching and seeing what the numbers show. While Safety remains consistent, every other statistic virtually flip-flopped between our best and worst defensive performances! "Great but what does it mean?!"

Let's start with the easiest statistic to dispel which is the Cornerbacks and the assisted tackles. We do not really want our corner backs assisting in the running game. Cornerbacks are built for speed, running routes, reacting to receivers, and tracking balls in the air; not shedding blocks, standing their ground, and taking on Tackles who outweigh them by 100+ pounds. While we afforded with two corners who are not afraid to support the run game, if they are active in assists in the running game that tells me that they are chasing down runners (LJ's 65 yarder), our OLB's are not doing the job properly, and our DL is not getting outside leverage pushing the run back to the inside.

We want our linebackers to have a high assist ratio. Look at the great linebacking corps in history, and while most of them are lead by a standout Linebacker, more than anything else they play great as a unit. They all have, albeit cliché, "a nose for the ball" and you always see them involved in a play. By our Linebackers having a high assist ratio, they are playing well as a unit, maintaining gap discipline, not over pursuing, and all swarming to the ball.

It all seems to start and finish with the Defensive Line; in our worst defensive performances, they averaged 27% assists while in the best they had only 12%. The Defensive Line's role is dependent on the defensive scheme the team is running. Do the linemen penetrate or do they occupy blockers? Do the linemen stunt and twist or just mano-y-mano line up and push someone back? It looks like for our scheme, we want our Defensive Line to play to the strength of our Linebackers which is their speed. We want our DL to occupy blockers gap discipline and let those Linebackers swoop in for the kill. This is also all about trust; the Defensive Linemen need to trust that if they do not make that tackle and keep that Guard, Center, or Tackle busy, that the Linebacker is going to be there and do their job and stop the runner.

In conclusion, assists are a good thing dependent on who is doing the assisting. Just as you do not want the 90 year old woman moving furniture into your new 3^rd floor apartment, you need to show some discretion in who is getting assisted tackles.

Poll

How important is it to have assisted tackles in the correct defensive units?

Assists, schmists; total tackle numbers and solo tackle numbers should be identical.

7 votes

Everyone should have assists; this is a TEAM sport after all.

30 votes

Everything in moderation; some assists are good dependent on position and gameplan.

27 votes

Who cares about assists; I don't care HOW the defense needs to improve they just need to.

23 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

Time For Broncos Fans To Get Excited!

nickt84 — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:55:39 -0000

Before you read this, please read the disclaimer below:

1. This is not a post that will look into stats and figure out what Jay Cutler's Yards-Per-Pass has to do with the price of rice in China.
2. This is not a post to talk about how Denver has lost their home field advantage.
3. This is not a post calling for the overthrow of yet another defensive coordinator.
4. This is not a post talking about Denver's inconsistency.
5. This is not a post talking about the highs and lows of yesterday's spanking.
6. This is a post about you getting pumped for the Denver Broncos.
7. This is a post that after reading you should feel like you just slammed a pot of super-concentrated caffeinated coffee spiked with an illegal substance.
8. This is a post that will make you want to ball up your fists, pump them in the air, and let roar a baritone, manly, and Denver loving, "YAAAA!"
9. This is a post that should make you steeple your fingers together and laugh evilly as you think about playing San Diego, Kansas City and Oakland twice a year.

It's time to get excited about the Denver Broncos. Throughout all the highs and lows of this season, I'm ready to say it; the Denver Broncos are kick ass and Mike Shanahan can stay the coach until he is prowling the sidelines in a walker with an assistant holding his play chart over his mouth to avoid evil lip readers.

If I am a GM, head coach, assistant, player, or fan of any other AFC West team right now, I'm saying, "Oh #$%*" right now because the Denver Broncos are freaking scary. I'm not talking Birds or other Alfred Hitchcock movie suspenseful scary; I'm talking the last Texas Chainsaw Massacre horrible, painful, torturous scary.

via nyc.metblogs.com

Enough with the Bill Williamson's of the world and all the other naysayers and doom-and-gloom reporters saying that we were all idiots for jumping on the Denver Bandwagon after the first three games. Enough with commentators saying how horrible the Denver defense is; how tragic, disastrous, terrible, porous, injury prone, and decimated it is.

Denver against the high powered Chargers and Saints? Brees and Rivers will light them up and Denver can just hope to play and lose respectably.

Jay Cutler against Tampa's solid defense; gooooooood bye Denver.

Denver against Cleveland? Please Cleveland has new excitement with Quinn at the helm and Denver's D is horrible. Plus Jamaal Lewis is going to show the world how poorly Denver tackles and their missed assignments.

Didn't you see Denver get beat down by Miami to lose their 3rd straight? I mean freaking 1-15 last year Miami!

Denver has only won 1 in the last 4 and they are going into Atlanta who are undefeated at home. Matt Ryan hasn't even thrown an interception at home. And don't even get me started on the spanking that Turner the Burner has in store for the terrible Denver Defense. Shoot, Denver might as well not even make the trip.

Denver against the Jets? Maybe Jay Cutler thinks he's not only better than Elway but Favre as well. The Jet's just beat the best team in the NFL with one of the best defenses. You think that the pathetic Denver defense is going to be anything more than a speed bump to them?

Denver is winning the AFC West and should clinch it pretty soon. Who in the NFL, even the MHR faithful, thought that Denver would win the AFC West? Sure they are people who love to throw in the ‘yea but' of San Diego's spectacular year but hey - a win is a win and winning is winning. Do you think in 10 years when people talk about Denver dominating the AFC West they will say, "Yea but San Diego played sub-par those years." No! Denver is going to the playoffs and that's what counts. Let's say it again... P-L-A-Y-O-F-F-S

Denver has really put up some impressive stats of late:

1. In the last 3 road victories, Denver has had 1,380 yards of total offense compared to the 1,146 yards allowed defensively.
2. In the last 3 road victories, Jay Cutler has thrown for 1,020 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions compared to opposing quarterbacks throwing for 736 yards, only 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
3. In the last 3 road victories, Denver has 374 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns.
4. In the last 3 road victories, Denver has allowed only 2 sacks.

The Denver defense, in ways unbeknown to me, has found ways to win after losing more than half of their defensive starters. Among the second string who has replaced those starters have been 3 different rookies. They haven't necessarily been pretty but the Denver D is getting it done.

The Denver offense is simply scary. We all know that we ignored defense this reloading season and focused on offense and there were a lot of naysayers out there about Shanny's decisions. What has he rewarded them with? A Denver offense that is here for years to come and will only get better with age. Let's put excellence of the offense in perspective with their youth and lack of experience:

Jay Cutler - 3rd year - 3,393 yards, 21 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and an 87.8 QB Rating.
Eddie Royal - 1st year - 63 receptions, 757 yards, 5 touchdowns.
Brandon Marshall - 3rd year - 72 receptions, 942 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Tony Scheffler - 3rd year - 28 receptions, 453 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Daniel Graham - 7th year - 21 receptions, 261 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Brandon Stokley - 9th year - 38 receptions, 410 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Peyton Hillis - 1st year - 60 carries, 285 yards, 4.8 yards-per-carry, 4 touchdowns.
Ryan Clady - 1st year - .5 sacks allowed.
Ben Hamilton - 8th year - 2.5 sacks allowed.
Casey Wiegmann - 13th year - 1 sack allowed.
Chris Kuper - 3rd year - 0 sacks allowed.
Ryan Harris - 2nd year - .5 sacks allowed.

If I am in the AFC West and I look at those stats, I think my future reloading seasons have become 1 dimensional and it has to be defensively oriented. The Denver offense is potent and young and its going to be solid for the next 10 years.

The rookies and other young players have stepped up and performed like no other. Shanny has cast off the FA pick up and instead focused on getting some youth and look what happened. Harris and Clady, both first year starters, have given up a combined single sack in an offense that throws more than any other team in the NFL. Eddie Royal has caught 63 receptions. Wesley Woodyard has 29 tackles in 4 games and Josh Bell had 3 passes defended in the victory over the Jets.

We went into this season thinking that we had too much running back depth and not enough linebacking depth; I guess that's why the play a whole season because look how things of changed - personally I think for the better. We know that we have production from all our running backs next year. Hillis was a diamond in the rough, Torain tore it up for his few carries, we know Young can run, and Pittman had some very good games. We now seem to have a bevy of linebackers in what seems to be our eventual switch to a 3-4. Woodyard is tearing it up, Larsen is solid but not standout, DJ Williams is a top performer as well, and Winborn has been a pleasant surprise after over pursuing his first few games. We have found a good nickel back or potential starter in Josh Bell. And we had a Josh Barrett sighting! He played well and made some good tackles at key times.

The offense is carrying our team right now and they are carrying our team right to the playoffs and an AFC West champion position. Next year when we get some defensive play makers, imagine how much more potent our team will be! No longer will other teams be able to get in a shootout with us. No longer will teams be able to run nilly willy on us. Soon we will start to see scores of 42-14 and 47-17 instead of 34-33 and 34-30.

I don't know about you guys but I'm more excited to be a Denver Bronco fan than I have been in a long time. We can see something beautiful being born and we are privileged to this information more than the average fan. We can tell that Denver is going places and going to be going there for a long time and lucky for us we got on just as the ride is starting.

via another.luckhaupt.com

Poll

How do you feel about Denver?

I have a warm and fuzzy feeling about Denver. Let our dominance begin!

295 votes

Denver is still a .500 team at best and will be for the next few years until major coaching changes are made.

21 votes

Denver Donkeys? Crash and burn baby!

5 votes

321 votes | Poll has closed

The Home Field Advantage Debate

nickt84 — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 16:35:24 -0000

Editor's Note -- I added the poll, and the photo, to Nick's post because I have been wanting to discuss this as well an feel there is no need to re-invent the wheel. Great job, Nick! -- TSG

There has been a lot of clamoring about Denver's inability to win at home. What the heck happened to home field advantage?! Has Shanahan lost his touch? Is the new Mile High stadium not as good as the old Mile High? Does the mile high altitude really make a difference? Do the fans just not care as much? After looking at some statistics, there are some things that will not only surprise you about our home field advantage but hopefully will put this home field advantage debate to rest.

The lack of noise at Invesco Field has more to do with engineering than passionate fans

via www.geoeye.com

Mile High Stadium was constructed in 1948. The stadium, constructed for a paltry $500,000, was the home of numerous teams, including the Denver Broncos, until 2001. The stadium itself is resembles a phoenix; it was constructed on the site of a landfill and when it was demolished, it become the foundation of INVESCO Field's parking lot. On October 1, 2000, Mile High Stadium's 76,273 attendees "sustained the world's loudest roar for 10 seconds, with a reading of 128.74 decibels, beating the previous world record by 3.34 decibels."

INVESCO Field at Mile High replaced the old Mile High Stadium officially on September 10, 2001 as the Denver Broncos defeated the New York Giants 31-20. Times had definitely changed in the 53 years between construction of the two different stadiums; INVESCO Field was constructed for $364.2 million.

Since 2000, there has been an NFL ‘state of the art' stadium rebuilding craze - 10 stadiums have been rebuilt in the last 8 years. And while $364 million seems to be a staggering number, INVESCO Field actually ranks towards the bottom of the list in total construction costs of these newly built stadiums:

Lucas Oil Stadium - $720 million - Opened 2008
University of Phoenix Stadium - $455 million - Opened 2006
Paul Brown Stadium - $453 million - Opened 2000
Qwest Field - $450 million - Opened 2002
Ford Field - $430 million - Opened 2002
Soldier Field II - $365 million - Opened 2003
INVESCO Field at Mile High - $364 million - Opened 2001
Gillette Stadium - $325 million - Opened 2002
Reliant Park - $325 million - Opened 2002
Lincoln Financial Field - $320 million - Opened 2003

"So enough with irrelevant stadium costs and capacity," you say; "What about the home field advantage?!"

Denver Bronco Home Field Record at Mile High Stadium
Year	W-L	Avg	Year	W-L	Avg	Year	W-L	Avg	Year	W-L	Avg	Year	W-L	Avg
1960	2-5	.285	1970	3-4	.428	1980	4-4	.500	1990	4-4	.500	2000	6-2	.750
1961	2-5	.285	1971	2-5	.285	1981	8-0	1.00	1991	8-2	.800
1962	3-4	.428	1972	3-4	.428	1982	1-4	.200	1992	7-1	.875
1963	2-5	.285	1973	3-4	.428	1983	6-2	.750	1993	5-3	.625
1964	2-5	.285	1974	3-4	.428	1984	7-2	.777	1994	4-4	.500
1965	2-5	.285	1975	5-2	.714	1985	6-2	.750	1995	6-2	.750
1966	3-4	.428	1976	6-1	.857	1986	7-1	.875	1996	8-1	.888
1967	1-6	.142	1977	8-2	.800	1987	8-3	.727	1997	10-0	1.00
1968	3-4	.428	1978	6-2	.750	1988	6-2	.750	1998	10-0	1.00
1969	4-3	.571	1979	6-2	.750	1989	8-3	.727	1999	3-5	.375

The home record at Mile High Stadium, including the post season, stands at 197-123 or .615. However, since the AFL-NFL merger, Denver's home record at Mile High Stadium stands at 173-77 or .692. Since 1974, Denver's home record at Mile High Stands Stadium at 163-56 or .744.

Denver Bronco Home Field Record at INVESCO Field at Mile High Stadium
Year	W-L	Avg
2001	6-3	.666
2002	5-3	.625
2003	6-2	.750
2004	6-2	.750
2005	9-1	.900
2006	4-4	.500
2007	5-3	.625
2008 *Ongoing	3-3	.500

The home record at INVESCO Field at Mile High Stadium, including the post season, stands at 44-21 or .676. In the last 3 years, the home record at INVESCO Field at Mile High Stadium stands at 12-10 or .545.

Mike Shanahan's overall home record as the head coach of the Denver Broncos stands at 64-26 or .711.

Now that everyone is up to speed on the actual facts, it is time for the speculation and opinions. Why has Denver's home field advantage been deteriorating? Granted we have gone through this kind of home field slump before but it has been a long time. Is it the influx of youth? Has Shanahan lost his touch? Did we skimp on the money on our new stadium? Does Jay Cutler not know how to win at home?

I'll leave you all to your own speculations but I want to take the opportunity to post my own; this slump is due to youth. I have stated in other posts and comments that this team is so young that the players are not career Broncos yet. No one likes to lose, especially at home, but these young players have not been a part of Denver's home field advantage tradition. They have to learn it and play with pride at home which they have not been doing. And it will come as the players get more experience and the rivalries heat up for them personally - specifically it will come as the players learn what it feels like to lose at home and be boo'd and have fans leave the game early. These players do not hate the Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers like we do because they haven't been biased like we have been for as long. But have faith, it will come and our home field dominance will return.

Poll

Do you think the Broncos have lost their "Mile High Magic"?

Gone Forever, like the South Stands

64 votes

The Magic will return when the TALENT returns...

131 votes

195 votes | Poll has closed

Defense Coming Full Circle

nickt84 — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 17:56:19 -0000

The Denver defense and offense is coming full circle - they are finally accomplishing the things that most of us predicted they would after the bye week. I took the liberty of crunching some numbers and posting them and will provide my opinion on their breakdown because commentators are useless. Unless they have their media guides in front of them and have their month old talking point, the commentators are about useless. To be honest, I'm tired of hearing about the horrible, horrific, terrible, ugly, and terrible defense that Denver has; when in fact there has been a vast improvement in the last 3 games.

Week	Passing Off	Rushing Off	Passing Def	Rushing Def	Turnover Diff
Week 1 - Win	300	141	180	150	+1
Week 2 - Win	350	145	377	80	0
Week 3 - Win	264	105	421	88	-1
Week 4 - Loss	361	94	160	213	-3
Week 5 - Win	227	106	181	139	0
Week 6 - Loss	192	131	276	155	-1
Week 7 - Loss	187	106	185	257	-5
Week 9 - Loss	307	14	281	75	-2
Week 10 - Win	447	123	239	160	0
Week 11 - Win	216	121	250	110	+1

There are a couple things that I have noticed - the most obvious of which is turnovers. Denver has not won a game in which it lost the turnover battle by more than 2. In fact, the only game we won where we had a negative turnover ratio was the New Orleans game and that was a squeaker. Does this mean that Jay Cutler has to protect the ball more? Sure. But it also means that the defense has to force turnovers whether it be fumbles or interceptions. We already know why we haven't been able to come up with interceptions this year (only 4) and that is due to our inability to stop the run; however we need to be able to come up with more fumble recoveries and stripping the ball. Whether this involves sacking the QB more and going for strips or swarming to a running back and stripping the ball - it needs to happen more.

On the turnover issue, we had a turnover differential of -9 in the first half of the season; since the bye week we have a -1 turnover ratio. Granted we have only played 3 games since the bye week and do not have a large sampling but it does look a lot better than the first half of the season.

The defense has been pretty rough this year but rightfully so. We all knew that defense was going to be an issue for the Broncos in the offseason - the only difference is that we are experiencing it now. It's very similar to the bailout our economy is facing now - many people say "Screw 'em; they shouldn't be bailed out" and while I am also in this school of thought, it's a lot easier to say that when it's not affecting you. We knew the defense would be bad this year with no big splashes in free agency or the draft taken but when you see our defense giving up 408 yards per game it's a little different. However, we came out of the bye week much improved giving up 371 yards per game.

Our rush defense has been our Achilles Heel this year. In the first 7 weeks before the bye we gave up an average 155 rushing yards per game - ouch! So far after the bye we have only given up 115 rushing yards per game which is vastly improved. Surprisingly, our passing offense has not degraded much with the loss of Champ Bailey. Before the bye with Champ, opposing offenses threw against us for an average of 254 yards per game; without Champ we are averaging 256 passing yards per game. Granted neither of these numbers are very good but not as bad as many doomsayers were saying it would be.

Finally we get to the basic explanation of it all - making chicken salad out of chicken !@#$. I think our defense is awesome and here is how I justify this. The top three defenses in the league are the Steelers (237.6 ypg), the Giants (265.8 ypg), and the Ravens (267.9 ypg). Now let's look at what each of these teams has invested in their defenses:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have 5 first day draft picks invested in their defensive starters with an average 7 years of experience per player.
The New York Giants have an average 6years of experience amongst their defensive starters and have 5 first day draft picks invested in their defensive starters.
The Baltimore Ravens have an average 7 years of experience amongst their defensive starters with 6 first day draft picks spent.

Compare these numbers to the defense that Denver started last week at Atlanta: Denver fielded a starting defense that had an average experience of 4 years experience and 3 first day draft picks. While the differences in the statistics do not seem that much different, the difference between 7 years of experience and 4 is huge as is the lack of 3 other first day picks. Also, Denver only had 1 first round pick starting on defense, Ebenezer Ekuban. None of the top three defenses have rookies starting for them and throw in the Denver had Larsen (the Stormin' Mormon) and Wesley Woodyard starting and Josh Bell playing considerably.

Like many of you all predicted the defense is playing better football in the second half. The long runs seem to be disappearing, sure tackles are being made, and the defense is not over pursuing as much. Throw in the fact that it looks like we picked up some good defensive players in the offseason and things are starting to turn around defensively.

Spencer Larsen played well on Sunday; while he did or does nothing great, he seemed to do everything well. I saw him directing players around pre-snap, he kept his head up when shedding blocks and not committing to a lane until the runner did, and he always seemed to be around the ball. I would like to see him get as many reps at MLB as possible and lose his FB responsibilities. I was never really impressed with his lead blocking skills (only average) or receiving skills (below average). A couple MHR faithful have been clamoring for him to be the starter at MLB but I'd like to see how he does throughout the season - I definitely think he earned some playing time.

Wesley Woodyard seems to be a beast and is sneaky fast. I watched him on a couple plays, specifically on a run to the outside, and he got there in a hurry forcing the ball carrier out of bounds around the line of scrimmage. I think Woodyard's problem will be finding him a place on the defense. He seems perfect for a WLB and if we did not have DJ Williams I think he would be the starter. But I don't think he would be a good MLB and I'm not too sure about him on the Strong Side. What if Woodyard slimmed down and moved to Strong Safety? That may be interesting. I think he would have excellent range and would be a pretty big hitter for Safety while maybe not as much for LB.

I've been pleasantly surprised with what I've seen with Josh Bell so far as well. Granted I don't think he would be anything more than a nickel back when we have our starters healthy but he did well for what he had to work with on Sunday.

Basically, our team is finding ways to win right now with 2 good ones on the road. The defense is stopping teams when they need too - granted the two last minute drives tried against them were led by rookies (one actual, one essentially), but our defense fielded a bunch of rookies too. Pretty soon these commentators will start to play catch up and talk about the improved Denver defense. Again, they will always be one step behind us as we predicted the defense would play better the second half of the season and now they are.

Poll

What do you think abou the defense after the bye?

Better but not permanenet.

15 votes

Better and going to get better.

57 votes

The same.

2 votes

Worse but it will get better.

0 votes

Crash and burn baby!

0 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

The Scheffler Factor

nickt84 — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 17:01:12 -0000

Tony Scheffler was born February 15th, 1983. In his 3rd year with the Broncos after being drafted out of Western Michigan University in the 2nd round (61st overall); Scheffler has become a crucial aspect of Jay Cutler's development and success - when he is healthy.

There is no question that Scheffler is a receiving tight end and poses matchup problems for defenses. As part of the powerhouse 2006 draft class for the Denver Broncos, Scheffler leads all Tight Ends picked ahead of him in all receiving statistics but receptions:

Vernon Davis - 88 Receptions / 970 yards / 11 yards-per-catch / 7 TD

Marcedes Lewis - 71 receptions / 804 yards / 11.3 yards-per-catch / 3 TD

Joe Klopfenstein - 26 receptions / 284 yards / 6.9 yards-per-catch / 2 TD

Anthony Fasano - 50 receptions / 574 yards / 11.5 yards-per-catch / 4 TD

Tony Scheffler - 87 receptions / 1186 yards / 13.6 yards-per-catch / 11 TD

Scheffler's durability and toughness has been an issue as he has only played in 26 out of 41 possible games since being drafted - 63%. This durability issue does cause concern as his presence seems related to Jay Cutler's success and confidence. These are some of Jay Cutler's key stats since becoming the starting quarterback in 2006 while playing with Tony Scheffler:

QB Rating	Yards / Game	Completion Percentage	Long	Yards / Attempt	QB Rushing Yards / Game
93.02	242	62.94	39.6	7.6	11.7

Now look at the statistics over the same period when Tony Scheffler is not playing:

QB Rating	Yards / Game	Completion Percentage	Long	Yards / Attempt	QB Rushing Yards / Game
76.52	228	62.06	31.3	7.2	9.7

Albeit, some of the changes in these statistics do not really translate too much; such as yards / attempt (.4 yard decrease) and completion percentage (less than 1% decrease) but some of the other numbers do mean something; the most startling of which is the Quarterback Rating.

From Wikipedia.com:

"Passer rating (known as passing efficiency or pass efficiency in NCAA football) is a measure of the performance of quarterbacks or any other passers in American football (gridiron) and Canadian football. There are at least two formulae currently in use: one officially used by the National Football League and the Canadian Football League, and one used in college football. Passer rating is calculated using each quarterback's completion percentage, passing yardage, touchdowns and interceptions. The NFL's current passer rating (also known as quarterback rating) system was conceived by Pro Football Hall of Fame's retired vice president Don Smith in 1973. The system is a sliding scale design, where outstanding performances meet diminishing returns faster than sub-par ones. The best passer rating that a quarterback can obtain is 158.3, while the worst is zero. The architects of the passer rating had 66.6 in mind as the "average" score, but as styles of play have changed, so have average passer ratings. The cumulative league-wide average passer rating for the years 2000 through 2003, all inclusive, was 78.9 (the figure is typically rounded to the nearest 1/10 of a point); however in 2004 the league average was 82.8. In 2007, the average was 83.5."

Essentially, the QB Rating is a measure of how well the quarterback plays. When you look at when Jay Cutler has Tony Scheffler at his disposal, Jay "plays" above average; when Scheffler is not in the mix, Jay "plays" below average.

The passing yards-per-game when Scheffler is not present shows a marked decrease of 14 yards. 14 yards? Big deal! I disagree - take those 14 yards and translate them to just 1 completion; suddenly you have a first down on a drive when you were forced to punt. Average long passing play with Scheffler is 39.6 while without Scheffler is 31.3. Finally, Jay Cutler's rushing yards per game with Scheffler is 11.7 while without Scheffler is only 9.7 yards.

What does all this mean? Is Tony Scheffler unexplainably linked to Jay Cutler? Do these two share some kind of "bio-rhythm" and Jay suffers when Scheffler is not there? I don't think so at all. I do think that Scheffler adds a very dangerous element for opposing defenses to account for; I think this number shows in the QB Rating. Scheffler can go deep just as easily as most wide receivers. This means that safeties and linebackers must play the deep middle to prevent this leaving the underneath routes and receivers open to receptions. When Scheffler does run routes, he runs them sharper, faster, and quicker than other tight ends; coverage must slide to that side leaving just a little bit of more yardage for a scrambling Jay Cutler.

Is Tony Scheffler himself responsible for these improved statistics of Jay Cutler? I don't think so but I do think that someone of Tony Scheffler's abilities is responsible for these improved statistics.

I saved the most interesting statistic for last; many people say this is the only statistic that matters in football. While the Broncos have not been dominant the last 3 years, their record stands at .522 when Scheffler plays compared to the .286 when Scheffler does not play.

There is one thing that I do know; Tony Scheffler signed a 4 year deal in 2006 worth $2.7 million. In 2009 Tony will only earn $530,000 and become a free agent in 2010; look for a long term deal with some big money to reward Scheffler for the dynamic elements he adds to the game and to Jay Cutler.

Poll

How much of a difference does Scheffler make?

Quick! Someone get this guy his own training staff - we can't afford to have him go down more!

76 votes

Moderate - Scheffler is good but not great. He can be replaced or let go come Free Agency.

13 votes

#88 is a scrub! A TE's job is to block first, catch second. Somone get on the phone with Sharpe!

1 votes

90 votes | Poll has closed

The Miami Loss Fallout

nickt84 — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 15:12:36 -0000

**Hat Tip to NickT84 for this post. Each Week I will promote a couple FanPosts to the Front Page that deal with the previous game. Congrats to NickT who is the first 'winner'! -- TSG

I don't know about the rest of you but I was delighted about Denver's loss to Miami. I was not necessarily happy about the loss (although it wasn't all bad and I will get to that later) but I was thrilled about the things that I did see during the game.

Seconds before the game begun, I was jumping up and down cheering. Why? Because Eddie Royal was back returning the kick. Finally let's let this kid do what we got him to do! And a mere minutes after his first return, we saw the reason we drafted him. 2 plays later, touchdown. We could be playing with Oakland's offense yesterday and have scored a touchdown with that kind of field position. That has to be one of the most overlooked things in football right now is the benefit of field position. Look at some of the best teams right now and look at the special teams. Special teams used to be just depth and backups - I am starting to see a transition to solid players being drafted to make an impact on special teams. With Royal, we have solid foundation for the next several years. Field position is crucial and with our offense only having to go 70 or 65 yards rather than 80+ will make a hell of a difference.

Ryan Torain. I'm glad I finally saw him in a uniform! I was shocked that he did get a couple carries today; did you see that huge brace on his elbow? Something should be said of his ability to carry the ball with that thing.

How about Peyton Hillis yesterday? For some reason, he has been on limited playing time and he was finally involved extensively and rewarded Shanny's blessing with outstanding play. For a guy that is supposed to be a lead blocker, did you see his athletic ability to tip toe by the sideline, his catching ability, his speed, and great awareness? Once we have an established running back in the backfield and have a double headed monster on the same formation, in the words of Matt Cassel, "Oh, goodness."

Karl Paymah played great yesterday. Granted we got thrown all over but remember how everyone was saying that Bly was going to get blown up without Champ and he hardly was thrown too all day. Instead they picked on Paymah and he did great with what he had to work with. By playing soft zone coverage and no safety help over top, all that you can do as a defensive back is make a solid tackle; I did not see Paymah make one sloppy tackle. I was literally jumping and cheering as I watched him drive his helmet into the chest, wrap his arms around the carrier, and drive him to the ground. SOMEBODY taught this kid to tackle and maybe he can show the rest of the defense. When Paymah did have safety help, he makes the gamble and comes up with a key interception and showed some great athletic ability. I feel great about having him as a nickel back or replacement for Bly.

Brandon Marshall is becoming a vocal leader on a team that lacks them. Many people don't like him airing dirty laundry to the public but I say good. In the spring, Jay called out Marshall saying, "He's not my favorite person right now" and what happened out of it? Marshall got his act together. Cutler has been the focus of media attention right now. Whether it's his laser arm, being anointed the quarterback of the future, being compared to John Elway, Shanny professing his love of being able to open up the entire playbook, or overcoming his diabetes and being a role-model. I think that all of this attention has gotten to Cutler and it has affected his play. Look at his abilities; they have not changed from the first three games of the year to the last 5. What has changed? Jay Cutler's decision making. Jay listens to the media just like the rest of us and while Shanny or Bates talking to him might not work, Marshall blasting him in front of 30 million people should. Jay is a young quarterback and it's time to get his act together. Take away the interceptions he has been throwing due to bad decisions rather than outstanding defense, many of the games we lost should be won (JAX, KC, and MIA). Now Jay is young and he will learn and the Miami game should have more of positive effect on him than any other game of his career (and I will get to that later as well).

It may be the sadomasochist in me but I think we have hit rock bottom; and good! The Monday Night loss to New England was hard to stomach and many people thought that was the low of the low. In that game we just got thrashed up and down the field, both offensively and defensively. This recent loss to Miami, we thrashed ourselves. Three turnovers, two of them inside our 40 yard line killed us. Our defense played well when they had their back against the wall with the position the offense put them in. Statistically, this was the worse game running the football we have had. We are turning the ball over like it's the coolest thing since sliced bread. Players are calling out the coaching staff, Marshall is blasting the QB of the future, and fans are pissed. Great! Think how pissed the players are.

Jay Cutler was as responsible for the loss of the Miami game as anyone; we know it, the players know it, the media knows it, and more importantly Jay Cutler knows it. It's one thing when you throw interceptions and everyone else is making mistakes; the defense, the running backs, the coaching staff. It's another thing when the when the defense is trying to do the best that they can without great players, keeps Denver in the game, but Jay Cutler gives the ball right back 3 times. The Miami game should have been won by Denver.

Marine Corps boot camp was one of the most interesting periods of my life and it changed me from a punk 18 year old kid into a responsible, self-accountable, driven man that I am today. Many people say they wouldn't want to do USMC boot camp because, "there is no way I can run that far," or "I can't deal with people screaming at me" or things of that nature. The mental games that the Drill Instructors played with us were the things that turned boys into Marines. They let everyone hit rock bottom, then stand back and watch the "S" hit the proverbial fan. I remember a specific instance when we were dog-tired and the D.I.'s were making us repeat a simple task over and over and over. As we repeated the task, we got tireder and slower and we were doomed to repeat the task. Recruits started to give up, take their time, and resign themselves to their fate of repeating the task. Then something happened; like a synchronous mind, all the recruits just snapped. Recruits were screaming at each other, yelling, calling lackadaisical attitudes out; all the while the D.I.'s just stood with their arms folded, not saying a word, watching a scene that played itself out word for word, action for action, exactly as it played out the cycle before that, and would play out the cycle after that. We as recruits held each other accountable, realized what the D.I.'s were doing, and banded together, and completed the simple task as it should have been done the first time - the D.I.'s said nothing for the rest of the night and were hardly seen as the recruits had a "come to Jesus" meeting.

This is what the Denver Broncos have encountered. We got spanked by New England on Monday Night. Everyone was praising how perfectly timed the bye week was: "we can get healthy," "we can work on our defensive woes," "we can work on stop turning the ball over." Shanny has one of the best records coming out of bye weeks and the players knew it; we all expected to upset Miami; we beat ourselves. Right now those Broncos are screaming at each other, holding each other accountable, and having player meetings with no coaches involved. Thursday night, the Bronco's will play lights out, not turn the ball over, and stomp the Browns. Why? Because the Broncos are once again the underdogs, no one predicts them to win, and everyone is stopping to look at the blood on the highway. The Broncos are on the dark side of the moon right now and are about to slingshot back to Earth...

Poll

Do you agree?

Yes.

138 votes

No.

49 votes

With some points, not with others.

81 votes

Does it really matter?

46 votes

314 votes | Poll has closed

CBS Sports Article Update 10/31/8

nickt84 — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:08:56 -0000

I've been trolling MHR for awhile now and recently just started to participate in the community. One of the things that I have noticed is that the community makes MHR great just as much as the staff of MHR. I have learned, experienced, and learned as much from the staff (TheSportsGuru, hoosierteacher, styg50, Zappa, and mdierk) as much as I have from other member's FanPosts.

With that being said, I plan on trying to contribute as others have contributed. These are some of the bye week(s) articles on the Denver Broncos.

Cassel steps up, Morris busts loose as Pats trash Broncos – October 20, 2008

Ugh. I think those 3 letters describe how we all felt about that Monday Night beat down. A couple of things that I thought were interesting from the article:

The team Tom Brady used to lead to dominant wins finally showed up.

I disagree – didn’t we just not show up?

"In front of the nation, we didn't show up tonight," cornerback Dre' Bly said. "It's embarrassing."

Very embarrassing – I hope the rest of the team feels that way; embarrassment is a great motivator.

Cassel was sacked six times…

That was nice to see. Granted Cassel has been sacked a lot this year but I think we got a lot better pressure than other teams have against the Pats. While this story was lost in the midst of the smack down we received, is this a glimpse of things to come?

"Standing on the sidelines, you can see that the sense of urgency was not there," Champ Bailey said.

"Oh, goodness," Cassel said. "If we run the ball like that, we'll be in good hands."

Oh, goodness? What the hell Dorothy, where’s Toto? It should read "If we play run defenses like that, we’ll be in good hands."

Good or Bad: Which Jay Cutler Is It? – October 27, 2008

The notion that he would be the next franchise quarterback for the Denver Broncos was coming true.

Back when he was drafted, I think most fans knew he would be the next franchise quarterback for the Denver Broncos.

…but recently he has gone back to the same mistakes he was making as a rookie and in order for Denver to win they can't afford mistakes because their defense is so bad.

True and true. He does seem to lock in on Brandon constantly and I’m waiting for him to start looking off receivers. While his big arm does grant him to make tough throws, he has made some stupid throws I think. There are different types of double coverage but a deep post with a safety overtop and a corner underneath is the worst; a couple of his picks have gone that way.

The Broncos have put a lot of faith into Cutler and if he wants to stick around he needs to start playing like he did.

I can’t imagine anyone in the organization calling for Cutler to not stick around.

There’s no doubt he has the talent, but can he produce on a consistent basis.

A valid point as we have yet to see that. The defense is responsible for a lot of our woes right now but so is the offense. We can blame it on injuries, lack of a running game, etc but we haven’t seen Cutler perform consistently yet. Granted he hasn’t had an extended opportunity yet as he was a rookie, then played with failing health, and this is his first real season being healthy and the starter but consistency would be nice (as long as it’s not consistently bad). Overall, a pretty good article.

Ryan Torain: The Best Running Back You Have Never Seen – October 29, 2008

The Broncos' rookie running back has not played a game since Oct. 13, 2007 when he was with Arizona State University.

It will be interesting to see how he handles being hit and going up the middle after more than a year.

Rushing for 1,229 yards on 223 attempts (a 5.5 average) and seven touchdowns as a junior, Torain earned All-Pac-10 Second Team honors in only eight starts. Adding 18 receptions for 205 yards (an 11.4 average) and three touchdowns put him at 1,434 all-purpose yards (an average of 110.3 per game).

There are two stats I love, the yards per carry and the yards per reception. The rushing average is not something flashy like 7 or 8 – instead I think it denotes going up the middle for 2 ½ yards and then falling forward for another 2. Just what we as an offense need as those LB’s and the SS cheat up to keep him back. Also the catching average is great – 11.4 yards. That shows me that when he gets the ball in his hands in space, watch out.

Head Coach Mike Shanahan even offered up a comparison to Terrell Davis.

That’s a hell of a compliment but it’s still just that…a compliment. Let’s see what we see.

With the backfield of Denver dealing with injuries, Torain is now the healthiest running back on the team.

Ouch. If there is one thing I have learned this year, it is not only the importance of the running game, but more importantly to have a healthy running game. The best RB does no good if you can’t stay healthy i.e. Reggie Bush.

While Torain is not scheduled to start, he will be seeing his first game action this Sunday, against the Miami Dolphins.

The title of the article says it all. We have such high expectations for Torian that he is the missing component from the Broncos. In reality, he was taken in the 5th round, has potential but is more likely a development project, and hasn’t played a football game in more than a year and the last one was at the collegiate level. I would love to see great things from him but I will be happy if I can see "flashes."

How Do the Denver Broncos Finish Strong in 2008? – October 29, 2008

With a paltry 5-3 record, and arguably one of the leagues worst defenses, the Broncos do have the potential to make it through the first round of the playoffs this year.

5-3? I like to see optimism for this week against Miami but damn…

Dre Bly, in this writer's opinion, was an overrated acquisition. Bly has been getting burned all season.

To be honest, I’m tired of the Bly bashing. Bly is what he is and that’s a gambler. We know he get’s burned. But we can’t keep blaming Bly for our pass defense. For 1, Bly is the only one getting burned because they won’t throw to Champ; 2, Bly’s "burned-ness" is scheme, not ability related; and 3, Bly is going to look like Superman now that offenses are going to be torching Paymah and maybe Williams later on this year.

The linebackers need to speed things up a bit, as they're looking a bit sluggish.

In my opinion, the coaches need to help the linebackers out. We know they are fast but they are sluggish because they are out of position and have no set scheme.

Cutler is the best quarterback to take snaps in the orange and blue since No. 7 made his departure, but he knows it. It goes to his head, and he makes bad decisions.

I agree. There is a difference between confidence (Manning and Brady) and arrogance (Rivers). Cutler needs to be a little more humble I think, have confidence in winning games, but keep it to himself and try and stay out of the limelight with these interviews. I would much rather be under-rated as a team and get no coverage and just stomp teams week in and week out then watch Cutler on TV.

Brandon Marshall needs to get his poop in a group, do what he's capable of, and not fumble at the absolute most inopportune time.

"Poop in a group" is a new one on me. Marshall has had some costly fumbles but let me put it in perspective. One of my favorite 1st Sergeants always used to say "1 ‘Ah sh*t!’ ruins 100 ‘atta-boys!’" Marshall is a dynamic play-maker and is deadly with the ball in his hands. Granted he has fumbled when he shouldn’t have but held onto the ball when it should have been bouncing around. Cut him some slack, he will work on the fumbling. He is a consummate professional and I’m sure takes those fumbles harder than anyone else.

The final idea that I've been tinkering with over the past year as a potential issue with the Broncos...is Mike Shanahan. I have been in denial that there could possibly be a chance that Mike Shanahan has lost his touch in Denver. I know, I know. Blasphemy.

You’re dang right its blasphemy!

Denver fans have incredibly high expectations, and we refuse to settle for mediocrity and below .500 seasons.

It is my speculation, that if Denver does not make it into the second round of playoffs this year, Shanahan will have to find another team.

This guy is crazy. No team can stay in the limelight forever. Players get old, salary cap issues, etc. Every team is humbled and goes through cycles of dominance then rebuilding. Look how horrible the NFC East was for awhile. There is no denying the team has rebuilt the offense and it will be here for the next 12-15 years. We need to get the defense in check then its game on.

Broncos report: Notes, quotes – October 31, 2008

"When you get the opportunity you have to rise to the occasion." -- CB Karl Paymah, who is replacing Champ Bailey. Bailey is out four-to-six weeks with a groin injury.

I know I’m very juvenile but…THAT’S WHAT SHE SAID!!!

Broncos report: Inside slant – October 31, 2008

On getting media attention…

"It's been fun," Cutler said. "You start winning, you start getting some attention, and that's good for the program, for the franchise."

Winning would be nicer…

On his Elway and arm strength comment…

"I'm not worried about it," Cutler said. "What's done is done, what's said is said."

Good, shut up and move on. Let everyone else talk about it and just play football.

…he refused to say he was close to the two quarterbacks he has said have set the bar for the league, Indianapolis' Peyton Manning and New England's Tom Brady.

"You've got to win Super Bowls and that's what those guys do," Cutler said. "You can put up all the stats you want to in the regular season but if you don't get to the playoffs and make stuff happen in the playoffs and get to the Super Bowl, you're not in that level. You're just not."

Good I don’t think we’d ever hear the end of that one…

Broncos report: Strategy and personnel – October 31, 2008

The Broncos will try to keep Ginn and Camarillo in front of them, which could mean a lot of catches for either of them.

That has been a recipe for disaster all year long it seems. With no safety help, that’s all that they can do.

RB Andre Hall didn't practice on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday with an ankle injury. Hall is Denver's top kickoff returner, and might be replaced in that role by Eddie Royal if he can't play.

I say good. I don’t think hall offers anything returning kicks other than getting it to the 23 yard line. I say put Royal out there returning kicks…that’s what we drafted him for. I do understand that you don’t want to injure him but at some point we have to stop living in fear of injuries, getting burned by the run, giving up long passes, and just play football.