
nihil67
Apr 30, 2008 Aug 20, 2010 39 2705
Bob Melvin Sucks
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Cardinals
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Daniel Schlereth finally pitches
On 8/3 Schlereth finally made his first appearance for the Rookie League Missoula Osprey. He walked one, struck out 2, and threw a wild pitch.
Barry Bonds?
Eric Byrnes is back on the DL and, if previous severe hamstring injuries can be any indication, he may be done for a month or longer. While the current plan appears to be putting Conor Jackson in left and Chad Tracy at 1st, I'm concerned about Tracy's ever-falling stats to this point. I know he basically didn't have a spring training, but how long can we wait around for him to maybe figure it out.
So, my question is a simple one. I'm not asking if Barry should be signed. Feel free to give reasons why he should or shouldn't be signed, but for the poll I'm much more interested in what you would do if he was?
Hot Stove NT 4.0
The NT stands for New Trades... it's a computer joke, sorry.
Anyway... it was a busy week/weekend.
The A's signed LF Emil Brown. I'm guessing this is because they just traded for a lot of younger and likely more capable players, so they needed that obligatory veteran cork to stop up the flow.
The Brewers signed Mike Cameron to a 1 year deal. I've read reports that it's worth $7 mil. I hope they're kidding. This likely slides Bill Hall back to 3rd where he's just slightly less of a butcher then Ryan Braun, who moves to LF. Cameron is no longer an elite CF defensively and is even worse with the bat. Thumbs down from me on this one.
The Braves, apparently desperate for a CF, traded very promising RP prospect Joey Devine to the A's for CF Mark Kotsay. Kotsay was one of my favorites for a long time, but this guy just doesn't have anything left in the tank. I suspect the Braves will regret not just giving the job to Josh Anderson or moving Kelly Johnson to CF. The only bright side for the Braves is that the A's are reportedly going to pay $5 mil of the $7 mil that Kotsay is owed this year.
The Cardinals and Blue Jays traded for eachother's problems at 3rd base. Scott Rolen and his shredded shoulder go to Toronto while Troy Glaus and his bad left foot will move on to St Louis. There is money involved in this deal somewhere, but I haven't seen final word on how much and to where. This is a 100% win for the Cardinals. Rolen was a cancer in their locker room and quite honestly is a waste of roster space at this point. Glaus, if he can get the foot issue sorted, is still one of the best power hitting third basemen in the game (for those that like that sort of thing).
Brandon Webb's Mechanics Reviewed by Chris O'Leary
My commentary from the Scherzer diary:
"I found this awesome animated GIF on Baseball Think Factory. The story is actually an interesting observation about the differences in Webb's delivery in '06 compared to '04.
Regardless, I think the GIF shows that Webb starts wonderfully by dropping his pitching hand and elbow very low out of the glove, and despite what the poster on BTF thinks, his early break out of the glove is a good thing.
However, once Webb starts cocking for delivery, things go a little haywire. His body, which had been in a downward trajectory towards home plate, starts to stand back up and he starts to raise his elbows into that "upside-down W" position.
He follows that with a nice flare of the hips, which cause his shoulders to follow around. His front foot comes around to a good landing position. He doesn't land on his heel, but on the whole foot.
It's hard to tell for sure at this angle, but it seems to me that his elbow is high when it comes around for delivery. It also appears to me that Brandon starts to pronate his upper arm, which isn't good. However, it does look to me like he has very nice weight transfer to his front foot and his back foot slides off the rubber nicely.
I emailed Chris O'Leary last night... it'll be interesting if he responds. In my extremely un-educated opinion (which, let's face it, O'Leary's opinion is more studied, but just as un-educated) I'd say that Webb does almost everything right, but the upside-down W and early pronation could be putting stress on his shoulder and elbow."
I asked and I received: Chris O'Leary blogs about Brandon Webb's mechanics.
He comes to the conclusions I thought he might, but adds that he locks his glove-side knee on follow-through, which could raise the chance of hip and knee problems.
Max Scherzer's Mechanics
Browsing around Chris O'Leary's site, I came across a little blurb about Max Scherzer:
"Max Scherzer (Mizzou) - 2/17/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Worse Than Average
Over the weekend I came across an article in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch talking about Mizzou pitcher Max Scherzer. I managed to find a few pictures of him and feel that he resembles Mark Prior in the he makes what some call an Upside-Down W as he turns his pitching arm over. In doing this, he brings his elbows above the level of his shoulders. As a result, I expect that Max Scherzer will have serious elbow problems as well as shoulder (especially rotator cuff) problems.
* Max Scherzer Update 5/2/2006: Over the course of the season shoulder tendonitis caused Scherzer to miss three starts. I believe that this is related to the fact that Scherzer takes his elbows both above and behind his shoulders."
It's an interesting observation and it wasn't very hard to find visual evidence. I was also able to find some evidence of what O'Leary calls "hyperabduction". For an example of good mechanics, he points to Greg Maddux. Take a look at the difference in elbow height at the fully cocked position. Maddux is way lower.
Does anyone have any pictures of Scherzer pitching this year? AFL or otherwise? It'd be interesting to see if his mechanics have changed at all since his college days.
On the bright side, O'Leary really likes Haren's mechanics.
I don't have any proof, but I think that Owings throws a lot like Haren. I'd be interesting if O'Leary did an analysis of Webb. Maybe if he got a nudge from a well known blog-o-sphereian...
Doug Slaten is injured
I think we all completely missed this after the season, but Doug Slaten underwent microfracture surgery after the season and is questionable for Opening Day.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0108dbacks.html
(near the bottom)
Even with all of the guys waiting in AAA, they're going to watch Keith Foulke throw later this month. I would seriously hope that there's no interest there.
If he has a strong spring, does this open the door for Scherzer? Or does it open the door for one of Bill Murphy, Emiliano Fruto, Leo Rosales, Juan Guiterrez, or even Bill Buckner?
HS3: The Rise of the Trades
Continuing the Hot Stove series, the A's today traded another major league player for a smattering of young "talent". They sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox for AA LHP Gio Gonzalez, A+ RHP Fautino De Los Santos, and AAA OF Ryan Sweeney. The White Sox continue to make baffling moves and the A's continue to stockpile (very) young talent.
Matt Clement has also signed with the Cardinals, adding to their stable of injured and highly talentless pitchers. Is this enough to push them over the Pirates for second to last in the NL Central? I can't wait to find out.
Hot Stove Part Deux
Looks like the other diary got locked, so I'll start up a new one.
I still don't see Beane taking these 3 mid-high level prospects for him. Not unless the "package including" means that it's those 3 and a major leaguer.
There are those that are crazy high on Haren and those who call him a good #3 that had a career year. The question I have is: How many strike-out/fly ball pitchers have come to Arizona and succeeded? Johnson... Schilling... I'm not saying he'll be Claudio Vargas, but I think it could be something close to Javier Vasquez.
3 Year Payroll Model?
Saw this piece on the East Valley Tribune site: http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/102881
The jist, as far as I can tell, is that they don't mind spending more this year because they are going to (somehow) lump the costs of the next 3 years together. I had heard that the payroll for this year was going to be in the 70-75 range. Isn't 230 divided by 3, 76.6? What's the difference?
Someone smarter then me want to explain this? Sounds a whole lot like what Colangelo did to me.
Fielding Bible Awards
The people at Fielding Bible gave out their 2007 awards.
Somehow, Eric Byrnes won for LF. He "was the Major League leader in left field in plus/minus (+28) as well as one of the leaders in Good Fielding Plays (23)." I can only assume that Good Fielding Plays are how they track "poor routes to balls resulting in spectacular looking catches."
2008 Schedule Released
Very disappointing that the NL West Champs are starting their season on the road in Cincy.
Interleague will be a bit of a joke as the huge draws of the Tigers, Royals, and A's come to town. Looks like we go to Minnesota and Boston.
June is going to be rough with 2 long road stints of 10 and 9 games. On top of being on the road for 10 games, they leave NY on the 12th to come home and play the Royals on the 13th. After a 6 game (7 day) home stand, they have to be in Minnesota the next day for the 9 game leg. I count 3 days off for the whole month. Ouch.
At least the season is finished at home vs. Colorado, but it comes after a 7 game road trip through Colorado and St. Louis.
A-Rod: Things that make me happy yet worried
A-Rod opted out of his contract yesterday, leaving $72 million in guaranteed money in hopes that he can sign an even bigger contract and, possibly more importantly, get out from under the constant pressure of the Yankees.
Looking at this and what else the Yankees could possibly lose this offseason, it makes me a little happy. Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera are all free agents. I suspect Rivera will be back, but I'm not so sure on the other two. This would leave the Yankees thin at 3rd, 1st, SP, and C. Here's to a basement finish for the Yankees in 2008.
On the flip side of this is the horror that is the possibility of A-Rod arriving in the NL West. I suspect both the Dodgers and Giants will makes plays at him. I'm not so worried about him on the Giants, but a Dodgers team with A-Rod in the middle of Ethier, Kemp, Loney, and Martin is not making for happy thoughts.
Other popular landing zones for A-Rod include the Mets, Angels, Cubs, and Red Sox. I wouldn't rule out the Rangers, Braves, or Astros. It actually seems that A-Rod and Boras picked a bad year to do this. A lot of the top spending teams have quite a few players locked in to $10 mil+ contracts for the next season or two.
Personally, I'd like to see him sit on the FA market with no interest until the day before spring training where he signs with the Royals for $15 mil a year.
News - Rizzo stealing (more) scouts, Esmerling Vasquez, Max Scherzer
We haven't been posting the news stories, but here's a piece I saw yesterday that has some good and bad:
http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/NickPiecoro/9447
Mike Rizzo has now hired away 3 scouts, the latest is Ed Durkin, who's been with the team for 11 years. Durkin was allowed to leave even though he'd only completed the 1st year on a two year contract.
There's also an interesting quickie about the AFL at the top. Esmerling Vasquez continues to be on fire this season. He's gone 4.2 IP in the AFL, all relief, and has an opp avg of .133 with 3 BBs and 4 Ks.
Max Scherzer is also having a nice AFL, with a .095 opp avg (1 HR), 10 Ks, and 2 BBs in 6 IP.
Does success for these two lead to Juan Cruz or Edgar Gonzalez getting traded? I'd be interesting what packaging Quentin and one of these two could return SP wise.
Most hated teams
So it was posted in the predict the World Series thread about listing your least favorite/most hated teams, but nobody ever posted the diary. Keep it to baseball and hate away.
Mine would go like this:
- Yankees
- Giants
- Padres
- Braves
- Cubs
- Rockies :) Ok, they probably fall below the entire NL Central and the Mets, but I'm kinda pissed at them right now.
Predict the World Series [and general WS discussion]
...And win 3 years of the Eric Byrnes Show. (The winner is required to watch every episode for the next 3 years)
Red Sox vs. Rockies, in what will probably still be the lowest rated World Series in a while. Tie breaker will be run differential for the Rockies. I'll start out by saying Red Sox in 4 with a run differential of -15.
Open Letter to Bud Selig and Phillip I. Kent
Gentlemen,
Do you like baseball? I do. I know that there have been some issues with the integrity of the game lately, but I would like to "dicuss", to quote last night's broadcast graphic, one that's been overlooked lately and I feel needs to be re-examined.
Turner Broadcasting System's (TBS) coverage of the Major League Baseball Division Series last night was without a doubt the absolute worst coverage of the post-season that I have ever experienced. I am not just speaking to the Diamondbacks game, though it was easily the worst, but I could not believe the level of ineptitude and ignorance on display from TBS's broadcast teams last night.
The coverage was ripe with technical difficulties, mis or completely uninformed broadcast teams, and discussions and/or information in game that was blatantly and, at times, hilariously off base. I would like to say that there was an east coast bias, but it went even further beyond. Did you collect these teams at the last minute? Did they even watch a baseball game outside of their markets before last night?
I have to ask you both, were the broadcasts last night acceptable to you? Did it make sense to broadcast your playoff games on a cable network that, while it does do NBA games, has never attempted baseball coverage on this scale before? Can baseball survive on cable networks alone?
I know that in my local market, here in Phoenix, all of the Diamondbacks games are going to be on the cable sports network next year and I couldn't be more angry about it. Not because I don't have the network, because I do, but I am absolutely angry over the fact that baseball doesn't get it. Baseball is supposed to be the sport that is available to anyone and everyone. That isn't the case when you're only on cable. Nor is it the case when that cable network seemingly goes out of its way to provide the worst coverage of a sport and a team possible. Didn't you hear Dick Stockton calling Carlos Marmol, "Carlos Marmot" the whole time he was pitching? What a disgrace. To top it off, I live in "Phoeniz, Az".
I understand that there's a money aspect to this deal, and that's fine. I don't support Major League Baseball's greed, but I understand that everyone in this country is entitled to make their money. I just really, really wish that you wouldn't impact my ability to enjoy this sport and my local team in the process.
Mr. Selig, you should be absolutely disgusted by last night's coverage. You not only represent the owners of Major League Baseball, but you are the final voice of the fans in these matters. You must voice our displeasure.
Mr. Kent, you should be absolutely disgusted by last night's coverage. I have never, ever, in my life witnessed a network destroy, so completely, everything that our national past time has built up to in a complete season in a single night. Every single member of these broadcast teams should be fired. I would recommend that you start off replacing them with people that, I don't know, may have watched a baseball game outside of New York City this year.
Lastly, I am going to listen to Game 2, tonight, on the radio, as well with the rest of this series. I will not support this destruction of my favorite sport. Perhaps I'll see you again when the series returns to Fox or some other network that has shown they can cover a sport intelligently.
Regards,
Ben Janusch
NL Cy Young
Does Webb have a chance? Which pitcher would you rather give the Cy Young to:
A) 9.71 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9, .203 BAA, 1.03 WHIP, 1.85 RA/Start, .281 BABIP, 28 Quality Starts, 6 Losses, 3 Tough Losses, 2.67 DIPS ERA (2.0, non-park adjusted)
B) 7.39 K/9, 2.74 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9, .239 BAA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.68 RA/Start, .294 BABIP, 22 Quality Starts, 10 Losses, 2 Tough Losses, 3.18 DIPS ERA (2.0, non-park adjusted)
If Peavy loses today... does he also lose the Cy Young to Webb, despite the numbers?
September Call-ups
9/1 is almost here and it's time to start getting a little giddy about those guys who are going to get a cup of coffee with the big league team. The FO has all been fairly adamant in their stance that guys will only be brought up that can help the team and they don't want to just have a bunch of guys wandering around the clubhouse.
With that in mind, here are the guys I think are coming up:
- Bill Murphy - I think he gets one or two starts. Otherwise, gets us a second lefty in the bullpen.
- Carlos Quentin - He's done ok in Tucson, Upton is struggling, it doesn't hurt to have a guy that can field.
- Emiliano Fruto - He's been sharp in his few Tucson outings since the trade. I think they'll give him a look and see if he's got it.
- Emilio Bonifacio - Pinch runner and to get a look at 2B a couple times. If he looks all Sergio Santos, you may see a trade for another 2B prospect this offseason or see Hudson get signed.
- Robby Hammock - Melvin likes catchers and the other bonus is that Hammock can play 3rd.
Before someone gets on me about Murphy not being on the 40 man roster, there's a spot open. Randy's on the 60 day DL. Releasing Kim and Kennedy opened two spots, one of which was taken by Fruto.
Carlos Gonzalez up to AAA
Carlos was called up to AAA yesterday and made the start in CF(?!) against Las Vegas last night. He went 2 for 6 with a double, a run scored, and struck out once.
Spring training is going to be interesting next year with Gonzo 2.0, Upton, Quentin, Salazar, and quite a few other guys battling for the starting RF job.
As a side note, Bill Murphy also made his 8th start and did pretty well going 6.2, allowing 3 runs (1 earned) and struck out 9. The lefty has now struck out 98 in 94.1 IP this year. His K rate has actually gone up as a starter. I suspect William R.W. Murphy will be making a push for the 5th starter slot or the bullpen come next year.
Two-Thirds the Size - Twice as Awesome
I hope everyone here is paying attention to the Little League team from Chandler that's playing in the Little League World Series. This team's games are fun to watch as they feature a bunch of kids that can just mash the baseball. Not much pitching to speak of, however :)
The Chandler team beat Maryland today 16-6, with homeruns from Seth Frethiem, Luke Parrish, Cody Bellinger (son of former Yankee Clay Bellinger), and Edgar Galiz. The team had 17 hits in all.
If you find yourself bored, I highly recommend tuning in to any of these little league games. It's nothing but solid baseball being played by kids having all kinds of fun.
Trade Talk - Royals?
Zack Grienke for Edgar Gonzalez and Alberto Callaspo.
This one seems pretty simple. The Royals get rid of a guy that they've decided can't cut it and we could also snipe a guy that the Dodgers appear to be interested in. The Royals also get two guys that fill needs. I think all 3 players may just need changes of scenery to leave past troubles behind and maybe play up to potential.
Trade talk - Detroit
The Tigers have put Marcus Thames on the DL and Craig Monroe his constantly missing or leaving games due a bad back. They've called up Timo Perez (.608 OPS last year) to play some LF.
If only the Diamondbacks had a seemingly pretty good outfielder type or maybe a DH type and if the Tigers had an organizational strength at pitching...
Oh, wait.
Red Alert - Randy to miss a start
An AP story and ESPN report that Randy has tendinitis in his left forearm and will miss his next start, but isn't expected to go on the DL. Edgar Gonzalez likely takes his spot.
Good news, it's not his back or legs. That may be about it.
Also important to note that the bullpen is a man short while he's unavailable. Not good with Bob "Pitching Change" Melvin in the dugout.
Jack Cust
The next in the series of getting rid of AzPhan entires... holy shit... how about former Diamondbacks bust Jack Cust getting it done over in Oakland? Since coming over on May 6th, he's hitting .346/.469/1.077 for an OPS of 1.546. 6 homers in 7 games. He's also struck out 11 times in 26 at bats...
Is it the year of the former Diamondback?
Strat-O-Matic
Does anyone else here play SoM on SportingNews? Anyone play the old board game and not know you could play online at SportingNews? I have 2 teams in leagues forming and 3 other credits... Semi-Snakepit league maybe?
This space intentionally wasted.
This space intentionally wasted.
This space intentionally wasted.
April DOES matter
HA. Someone more bored then me pulled a whole bunch of really interesting numbers on how much April really does matter. And it focuses on how much the Yankees are sucking, which is gold by itself. Please to enjoy.
Random Thoughts
Do work... look at what the Dodgers have been doing...
It was a hard choice.
Anyway, I remember someone talking about Chin-Hui Tsao back when he was non-tendered... who was that? 8.2 scoreless IP to start the season, fine. 1 hit and 2 BBs with 6 K's!? Whoops.
Luis Gonezalez has taken his batting average down to .274 after going 2 for his last 17. He's still taking walks, but we'll see how long that lasts.
Brad Penny is still on fire with a 3-0 record and a 1.95 ERA. His WHIP of 1.33 would be the only concern and he struggled against Pittsburgh, of all teams, two outings ago. I still think he contends for the Cy Young.
Juan Pierre sucks. I'll give Eric Byrnes the nod over Pierre any day of the week.
Pitcher Categorization
There was a very good article over on Baseball Analysts a couple days ago: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/01/categorizing_pi.php
It links to a story in the Hardball Times by Dave Studenmund which lists a redux of batted balls effects on runs. According to him, strikeouts had a run impact of -0.113, infield flies -0.088, groundballs 0.045, outfield flies 0.192, and line drives 0.391 per incident last year. That would mean, if everything else was completely equal, strikeouts are better then grounders by .158 runs per occurance.
The article goes on to categorize pitchers on a grid. Clockwise starting on the top-left: Above-Avg GB% & Below-Avg K/BF, Above-Avg GB% & Above-Avg K/BF, Below-Avg GB% & Above-Avg K/BF, and Below-Avg GB% & Below-Avg K/BF. Average GB% was set at 43.8% and the K/BF average was set at 15.88%.
It wasn't surprising to me to see Webb in the top-right quadrant with the likes of Santana, Carlos Zambrano, Carpenter, and just about every other good pitcher today.
What did surprise me is that Doug Davis was over there too. Davis had a GB% of 44.08% last year and a K/BR ratio of 17.59%. He's not as far into the quadrant as Webb or Carpenter, but it's worth considering that perhaps all of his problems last year were his walk rate? If he can cut off just 20 walks this year... I predict good things.
Randy landed in the bottom-right quadrant with a GB% of 41.71% and K/BF ratio of 20%. Numbers pretty much equal to Boof Bonser and very close to John Lackey. I'd take either of those two guys' lines from last year, so all may not be lost... depending on the back.
Livan Hernandez... well he landed in the bottom-left. GB% of 36.58% and K/BF ratio of 13.35%. Both are significantly low. Though not stated, my guess is that they are combined from both of his stops last year. Those quick to point out that he had better numbers with AZ.. all I'll say is that his K/BF ratio here was 13.08% and the GB% was 33.5%. It's worth considering that those better numbers he posted here were 100% thanks to Hudson, Drew, and Counsell. A trend that can continue? It'll be interesting to find out.
The whole article is an interesting read, if nothing else.
Worst trade?
As I sit and churn waiting for any drop of news on the Johnson deal, I wonder what everyone else would view as the worst deal in Diamondbacks history. I would have put a more positive poll, but I don't know who would have voted against the Gonzo for Garcia trade :) I guess some people would have voted for the trade bringing Chris Young here... maybe.
Non-Tender FA Pickings
The next batch of free agents hit the market last night when they weren't tendered arbitration offers by their current teams. The big name is undoubtedly Marcus Giles, but here's the couple names that perk my interest:
- Chin-Hui Tsao, RHP RP - 25 year old with an "explosive" 92-96 mph fastball and reportedly a wicked slider. Was at one time projected to be the Rockies' ace. Was battling to be the closer last year before having to undergo rotator-cuff surgery. Worth a minor-league stab if you ask me.
- Brandon Claussen, LHP SP - Once the top prospect in the Yankees' organization (is that saying much?), he has struggled with the Reds. I thought he had figured it out at the end of '05, but really fell apart last year. Could it all have been injury related (DL in June with shoulder tendinitis)? He's only 27 and made the league minimum last year. Another guy worth a cheap minor league stab and a long look in spring training.
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