[Another really great draft post from nikkoewan. If you missed his first one on the draft lottery, check that out here. - R]

Review

The first post tried to look deeper into the mechanics of the draft lottery and game as an insight on WHICH positions "value" are best. The question of which position is most probably getting a top 3 pick is easy to answer - just look at the standings. But the question of which position gives us the best value for the position it is in, that's a different answer.

Now, the analysis showed that the 4 worst positions hold the most value. A slow decline in value is then observed for the next 4 positions (5th, 6th, 7th and 8th), followed by consecutive nosedives from 9 to 10, 10 to the positions 11,12,13 (13 is marginally better than 11,12) and lastly, the worst value is the 14th pick.

After identifying which positions hold the MOST value, we then look historically, which picks resulted in the best players.

Introduction

A crucial element in this study is the idea of the lottery. The weighted lottery that uses 14 ping pong balls to correspond to the chances has been in place since 1994, so it's important that our data tackle only those until 1994 (since we are going to compare our results from the first study, to our results here). Of course, before the NBA consisted of 30 teams, there were just 13 lottery picks. I assumed that the 14th pick is no different than the 14th pick in a lottery because, as the analysis prior showed, being the 14th pick is no different than being 15th or 16th. Now, the question remains - how do we evaluate which players picked in the lottery performed the best?

We can't use raw box score statistics because as we all know, those are skewed either by pace(both by the season and by the team he played on). We can use PER, but I prefer not to. PER rewards inefficiency and undervalues defensive contributions. It accounts for production, but that single reason (rewards inefficiency and undervalues defensive contributions) makes it a very flawed statistic. Efficiency Differential is the best (in my opinion) because it tries to capture things which people say "can't be captured by statistics". Dean Oliver's Efficiency tried to take into account teamwork and synergy, which is exactly what we want. But that doesn't take into account playing time. Players have played few minutes and posted efficient numbers due to a small sample size. As such, I've arrived at using Total Win Share and WS/48, which is also a flawed statistic, which doesn't take into account synergy, but instead uses linear regression (using historical data) to fit coefficients into box score statistics to give us a measure of which box scores contribute to wins. If I have the time and the resource, I will try to look into using historical Eff Differential as a measuring tool.

Derivation

How do we say that a player performed? Of course we want him to contribute greatly to wins. Therefore looking at WS/48 is a great way of analyzing this. However, just like efficiency, this measure doesn't take into account the sample size. Luckily we have Total Win Share. But again, TWS can be skewed towards players that play a ton of minutes yet produce little or marginally to wins. This also doesn't take into account longevity. To balance this out, I come up with my own system which I call Weighted Win Share Score. WWSS is simply the product between WS/48 and TWS/(total number of years the player SHOULD have played). Of course, we should note that WS/48 = TWS/(Total Minutes Played/48), so simplifying the product of WS48 and TWS/(years player SHOULD be playing) actually becomes (TWS)^2/((TMP/48)*(years player should have been playing)). That new equation, WWSS, gives a somewhat balanced weight between production, ability to stay on the court and longevity. This way, we can actually see who produced the best the longest while considering his ability to stay on the court. This rewards players who produce big for a few years (such as Oden), but also mitigate inability to stay on the court (again, such as Oden) and longevity (again like Oden). In total, this favors production(TWS and WS/48) more than longevity and staying power because I believe longevity and staying powers are highly dependent on luck (team situation, injury luck, coach luck) but production doesn't. Production is heavily dependent on the skills of a player - if he's good, he's good, no matter the circumstances.

Also, take note that (years player should have played) is calculated simply by subtracting 2012 to their draft year. Very simple. For players beyond 1998, the variable becomes a constant 14 because playing beyond 14 for ANY basketball player (let alone a superstar) is a HUGE thing, so players like Kobe and Duncan are rewarded (by reducing the denominator). Also, WWSS will be heavily skewed in the middle class (the 2004~2000 draft) because its right around the time when there is enough information to give us an accurate picture of the draft, yet not too much information that the data becomes skewed (like players beyond 1998).

Also, for comparison sake, if we assume that a player plays a WS/48 of .100. Why .100? Well, if I understood WS/48 correctly, it's really comparable to Win%. i.e. if a team plays 5 players with WS/48 of .100 for a full 48 minutes, then there total WS/48 of .500 (a simple summation) results in a record of 41-41. Thus, if a player has a WS/48 of .100, it means at HIS position, he is neither contributing to wins nor contributing to loses. This puts a WHOLE 'nother perspective on players such as Lebron James. Lebron James has a WS/48 of .336. Thus, if you put two players who play at a pace of WS/48 of .100, and two players who contribute negatively to wins (WS/48 of 0) together with Lebron and play them for a full 48 minutes for 82 games, your Win% would be 44-38. (If there is an error, please correct me via the comments).

Back to the control data, career WS/48 of .100, plays 28 minutes/game (a 6th man/starter - which is a reasonable assumption supposedly for Lottery Picks), and plays 8 seasons (2004 - the point at which there is sufficient data, but not enough to skew it) TWS = .100 * 28*8 = 22.4. Then his WWSS should be 22.4/8 * .100 = .28. Thus, .28 is our control point (this is the point of average-ness i.e. he neither made an impact nor be a negative contributor. ) Also, a quasi star (probable All Star) is someone who plays .150 WS/48 and plays around 34 minutes. for a WWSS of .765. Finally, a superstar is someone with WS/48 of .200 and plays around 36 minutes for a WWSS of 1.44

Now to the bat cave! *BANANANANA*

Data and Analysis

via i596.photobucket.com

The bottom row is an average of that year, the last column is the average of that year. Looking at the bottom row, it's clear that 2003 lottery was a lottery beyond any other. It was the best of the best, trailed only by 1999 (whose lottery was headed by solid starters for many years like Brand, Hamilton, Davis, Odom, Miller, Sczerbiak, Marion, Terry and Maggette.) and the 1998 draft (headlined by a superstar for a long time in Nowitzki and Pierce, a superstar for maybe a good 8 years in Carter). Notice that the legendary 1996 draft (which produced Kobe, Nash, Iverson etc.) is behind. This is because Nash is outside the lottery (this study is ONLY for the top 14 picks) and their lottery produced duds like the highly inefficient Antoine Walker, Potapenko, Fuller and Wright. This is a study on the lottery, not the draft as a whole, therefore we disregard picks beyond the 14th (see assumptions above).

That is just a side note, our main concern is the right most column. That is the average WWSS over the span of 16 years of each pick. Notice that the 1st pick, comes out a whopping 0.93. Thus a 1st pick almost assuredly becomes a quasi star. This is true because since 2009, the 1st overall pick has produced Griffin, Rose, Oden (a superstar had he been healthy), Bargnani, Bogut, Howard, Lebron, Yao, etc. etc.

However, the decline from that point is HUGE. From .93, the next is .65 (3rd overall), .64(5th overall), .61 (4th overall) .57(9th overall. Funny food for the thought, the 9th pick has produced Dirk, Amare, Marion,Noah, Iggy and McGrady to lift this pick HIGHER than the 2nd pick) and finally the 2nd pick (.52).

Afterwards, it's a hodge podge of just below averageness. Meaning most players picked between 6-8 and 10-14 are contributing negatively to wins. Although there are some exceptions such as Roy (2006), Miller (1998), and of course Kobe(1996), most of the players picked in that range were BAD.

Implications

Well, from the previous analysis we've seen 2 things:

1.) Our own pick is safe (we're currently slotted at the 2nd position but I fully expect Washington to finish with a worse record than us giving us the 3rd position). Theoretically, the difference in value (w/ regards to getting a top 3 pick) between the top 4 positions are marginal (for numerical reasons, 3rd position is the "best"). Thus, we have no problems there (our own pick is maximized).

2.) for the MIN pick, what we need to pray for is that they bottom out to the 9th position. Value-wise, that's the best place that pick could be because the drop-off in value is HUGE from 9th to 10th (you don't experience a huge increase compared to the 11th position PLUS that's in a low sample size so 10th and 11th picks are basically the same in value).

This study further gives insight to what we should hope for in the upcoming draft. For starters, that 3rd position is 2nd only to the 1st overall pick in terms of historical data. Why? Maybe because the 2nd pick is pressured too much to perform the same level as the 1st pick, while the 3rd pick becomes the new standard for success for the 2 other top 5 picks. I don't know. What we do know is that, historically, the 3rd pick produced players that were productive for longer periods of times, compared to the 2nd pick. This is no longer quantifiable (reasons why the 3rd pick is better). But looking at the numbers, it's actually negligible.

Solving backwards for WWSS to come up with a WS/48 and TWS, our data comes up with, if we make the minutes constant for both the 2nd picks and 3rd picks (34 minutes/game) and averaging the number of years over the data(i.e. 2009 picks get 3 years, 2008 get 4 years, etc.. and averaging those x years) we get approximately 10 years. the 3rd pick produces a WS/48 of .138 for a TWS over a span of 10 years of 47 (remember, this is assuming he plays healthy for 82 games, and plays 34 minutes each game for all of those 10 years). While the 2nd pick produces a WS/48 of .123 for a TWS over a span of 10 years of 42. That's a difference of 5 games over 10 years, or half a game each year. Not too big. Compare that to the 1st pick, which over 10 years produced 56 wins or 9 games more than the 3rd, 14 games more than the 2nd. That's one more game each year that the 1st pick brings you, on average (of course, you don't get to pick 1st every year LOL).

For the MIN pick, there's something about that 9th pick. Historically, it's been good. But I don't know if that's explainable. Maybe after the top 5 sure picks, the next 3 picks are those that consist of "potential and/or skill without issues" and then followed by the 9th pick which drafts "potential and skill with issues" such as

in 09(Hill over DeRozan? (Err. Nope), Joe Alexander vs DJ Agustin in 08? (Maybe) Brandan Wright vs Noah in 09? (Maybe) I dunno. The evidence doesn't support that assumption (Flynn pick(produced in college), Gordon pick (skill AND potential), Rudy Gay and Brandon Roy etc..). So i can't think of any premise to support this claim. What I do know is that, the 9th position is the best among the worst. (9-14). Is this possible? With the injury to Rubio (hopefully he comes back healthy and strong next year without any lingering ACL tear effects), there MIGHT be a VERY SMALL chance(with Rubio out). That's if POR, UTH, PHX, MIL and CLE jump over MIN. those last 2 teams are HIGHLY unlikely to jump over MIN even with Rubio out.

To conclude, the dream is - hope we get the number 1 pick (whichever position we are, whether its 1,2,3 or 4) and for MIN pick to slide to that 9th position (where magic suddenly happens).

[Boom. This is awesome. Bumped from the Fanposts - R]

Introduction

As the trade deadline looms closer and closer, teams will start to realize where they belong between the two groups: the playoff hopefuls and the lottery hopefuls. It is around this time when teams start realizing what their team is made of, what the team still needs, and what the market is based on those two groups. Playoff hopefuls will be willing to risk their immediate future a little bit (I say a little bit because of the HUGE luxury tax penalties that are coming in 2013) and lottery hopefuls are hoping to be the market for this playoff hopefuls.

For lottery hopefuls, these are the times when they stockpile on young talent they deem worthy of the risk (not JUST young talent) and also jockey for the picks of the playoff hopefuls. One strategy though that seems to be lost in all this hocus pocus that is called the trade deadline is, how it affects draft position JUST by virtue of a team's record. Usually, when a team acquires a pick, it has a certain estimation of what position that pick will be on when draft night occurs, especially if its outside the lottery. Teams such as the Bulls, OKC, MIA will end up in some order of 30,29,28 in the 2012 draft (if they still own their own), and teams such as the Magic, San Antonio, 76ers, MEM will muddy up the 27,26,25 in some order. And so on and so forth..

One very difficult thing though is when you own a pick that's one of two things - it's neither one or the other (not a playoff hopeful, but not also a lottery hopeful) or it can be one or the either (a playoff hopeful that also has the chance of entering the lottery). Unfortunately for the Hornets, they own one of those - the MIN unprotected pick.

Now, for arguments sake, let's put in the Hornets own pick in the equation (Hornets probably finish in the top 5 worst records). A question everyone wants to be answered is - What draft position would ANY team want to be in to maximize its value? This is not a question of which picks historically resulted in the best players(a different study), but rather in the win-loss column, which position (1st worst?2nd worst?3rd worst? etc..) maximizes its value?

The Draft Lottery

To begin, let's discuss briefly the draft lottery in place. the draft lottery makes use of 14 number ping pong balls to select the pick. The league chooses 4 random numbers (example 1/5/7/14) for a total of 14C4(14 choose 4) = 1001 combinations.

From these 1001 combinations, one combination is disregarded (when we mean disregard, if the randomizer picks that certain combination, there will be a re-drawing of lots) , and the other 1000 are distributed to the non-playoff teams: 250 to the 1st, 199 to the 2nd, 156 to the 3rd, etc etc. When the lottery commences, the team with the winning combination (in our case, the team which owns combination number 1/5/7/14) wins the 1st pick. Afterwards, all of the team's combinations are disregarded, and another lottery occurs with the remaining 1000-x total combinations (x = total combinations of winner in 1st lottery). This continues on, until the 1st,2nd and 3rd pick are determined. Afterwards, the 4th to 14th pick are arranged by the W-L column and you have you're ACTUAL draft position.

Now, in understanding how to maximize the value of a pick, we need to know how much is the increase in odds from the 1st to the 2nd, from the 2nd to the 3rd, etc.. We use the formula (x-y)/y to denote the percentage change in outcome from the worst record to the 2nd worst record. For an example, we note that the worst record has a 25% chance of getting the 1st pick, while the 2nd worst record has a 19.9% chance of getting the 1st pick. Thus, moving from the 2nd worst to the worst record improves my odds by 25.63% that is, the worst record is 25.63% better than the 2nd worst record in getting the 1st pick. Calculating this for all 14 positions, we have the following:

1. 25.63% (2nd to worst)
2. 27.56% (3rd to 2nd)
3. 31.09%
4. 35.23%
5. 39.68%
6. 46.51%
7. 53.57%
8. 64.71%
9. 54.55%
10. 37.5%
11. 14.29%
12. 16.67%
13. 20%

Notice that the lottery is heavily skewed in the middle (the jump from 9th pick to 8th pick is a whopping 64.71%!!). Off course, this is not taking into account sample size. a 50% increase is better from 50 to 75 than for 2 to 3, so we also need to consider the weights of these percentages. This number tries to answer the question - how good is the jump from pick x to pick y as unbiased as it can (we take into account percentage change and sample size). This number is obtained by multiplying the percentage change to the total number of combinations the position has. Lastly we do this for the lottery for the 2nd and 3rd pick, taking into consideration the conditional probability of a position i.e. (what is the probability that the worst record gets the 2nd pick given that it did not win the 1st pick). Finally, we sum the weights to get a complete picture of which positions have the best value to get a top 3 pick (not saying BEST chance, but best value). Here are the numbers (ranked from largest to smallest)

1. 3rd worst record - 113.86
2. 2nd worst - 113.28
3. worst - 110.21
4. 4th worst - 106.41
5. 5th - 95.39
6. 6th - 82.57
7. 7th - 64.83
8. 8th - 53.82
9. 9th - 26.93
10. 10th - 12.68
11. 13th - 3.91
12. 11th - 3.74
13. 12th - 2.94
14. 14th - worst value to get a top 3 pick

Real World Explanation

Mathematical Analysis is nothing if it can't be explained - at least intuitively - in real life. As such, in every study, we need to know WHAT it means in the long run, and HOW to apply it.

The results are obviously surprising, because the lottery SHOULD value the 1st pick higher, followed by the 2nd pick, followed by the 3rd, etc etc. This is because the percentage changes are heavily skewed in the middle i.e. mid lottery picks experience the most increase in odds just by moving one spot. An example is jumping from 9th pick to 8th pick, adds almost 64.71% in your odds. This is mitigated by sample size (17 combinations) so the system tries to balance sample size and percentage change. In fact, it is not surprising that the 1,2,3 and 4 are jumbled together because they are the 4 positions that have combinations of greater than 100 (next is 88). As such, percentage change plays a HUGE role.

What does this mean for us Hornets fans?

Personally, it means that if the Hornets draft board is Davis/Robinson/Sullinger, then being at the 3rd worst record isn't such a bad thing to happen - theoretically speaking, we are at the best position to acquire a top 3 pick because of the weighted score system(although it's not that big between the top 4). However, this does NOT in any way assure us that the Hornets WILL pick in the top 3. It just says we gain the most value for our pick if it were there.
For the MIN pick, we should pray it lands on that 9th spot, because value wise, it's a HUGE jump from 10th (26.93 compared 12.68). And does it have a good chance of getting there? No. I mean its close to zero. HOU, UTA and POR could end up with better records than MIN (pushing MIN out of the playoffs). but even in that scenario, MIN still is the 12th worst record among non-playoff foddlers. So that's a lost dream.

Overall, take this with a grain of salt. the Draft is such an inexact science of economics, statistics and psychology that it's nigh impossible to come up with ONE definite research on how to maximize the draft. However, as human beings, even though we know we can't achieve perfection, we always strive for it, failure is always a part. Disect this analysis, add on to it. As the immortal Michael Jordan said

I can accept failure, everyone fails at something. What I can't accept is not trying.

This is me trying. I might have missed a variable here or an interpretation there, but this is a step towards something. This is a step towards helping us fans (and possibly the Hornets) understand the draft more.

[Bumped from the FanPosts. We're starting to get the very beginnings of some anti-Monty rumblings, and this is a great, measured response to that. -R]

It’s been said over and over again – coaches are hired to be fired. When a team fails to win as often as its fan base and its owner requires, coaches are asked to leave. This is because coaches are the easiest to let go. Players are harder to let go because of the restrictions of the CBA and the difficulty of the free agent market. That is why when a team is losing it is easy to blame everything on the coach. Fans and owners alike believe that by simply replacing a bad coach with a good coach, they can make any group of players (no matter the skill set) into winners. And why wouldn’t they? It is reasonable to think that by placing players in a system where he is comfortable will make him better. Yes?

This endless question on the value of a head coach is quite similar to the question of nurture versus nature. And there have been numerous articles regarding this topic. And it has been suggested that like managers in firms and corporations, managers are nothing more than “principal clerks”. That is what managers do with respect to the “inspection and direction” of a firm is essentially the same for all firms, and consequently managers can’t have much impact on the success or failure of an organization. (Stumbling on Wins).

Does that mean coaches are insignificant? Does that mean coaches are basically just dolls placed beside players to make it seem like there is a system in place? Are coaches basically replaceable by deck chairs and dummies?

No, what evidence suggests is not a comparison between a team’s performance with and without a coach. No. What the studies have shown is that, there are few coaches that could actually alter player performance and that most coaches are ,in actuality, at the mercy of the talent on the roster. Vinny Del Negro said it best:

"Everybody runs the same stuff," Del Negro said. "I would say 80 percent. Everyone tries the post-up guys. Everyone runs isolations. Everyone runs pick-and-rolls. It's all the same stuff; they just have different visuals for it. We call something horns -- it's an elbow set. They call it 54. Everyone runs ... we call it floppy, single-double -- other teams call it power or they call it 2-chest."

Del Negro said there's little variance in the schematics of NBA teams, with very few exceptions.

"Most of the stuff is very similar,” he said. “Angle pick-and-roll, high pick-and-roll. Everyone runs those. Other than probably the old Utah stuff -- the UCLA stuff, which we run, which other teams run -- or the triangle offense, which only the Lakers used to run, everyone runs pretty much very similar stuff."

Del Negro said he believes that execution far outweighs design on the basketball court. On Friday, he said he calls only about 50 percent of the Clippers' half-court sets from the sidelines. As a coach, he's not there to put his stylistic imprint on his team or to wow the league with his tactical prowess. He's in Los Angeles to inspire basketball players to play basketball. Give him quality players, and he'll give you a quality product. This is the Vinny Del Negro brand. (TrueHoop network: The Clippers’ efficient Woody Allen offense by Kevin Arnovitz)

Now you may ask, what then is the purpose of a coach who doesn’t actually alter player performance unlike Phil Jackson or Gregg Popovich? (both improve their teams expected wins by 17.1 and 15.9 wins just by adding the coach).

What a coach does is, like the manager of a firm, he manages the team. He keeps them motivated. He keeps them pushing, keeps them working. No matter if the players are productive or unproductive what matters is that he keeps them working. Mostly, it is up to the players to be productive or be unproductive.

Monty as a coach succeeds in this regard. It’s been well documented how players appreciated Monty as a coach. CP3 said it. David West said it. Landry said it. JSmith said it. Heck, even Kaman said it (even only after 1 month with the coaching staff). There have been numerous accounts where players who played for Monty responded to his “call to work”.

Does that mean Monty is off the hook? Does that mean he doesn’t deserve criticisms that question his offensive and defensive systems? Heck no. What was quoted was that there are few coaches that can alter player performance. That doesn’t mean only they can. Life is all about improvement. We strive for perfection. And in the process, we better ourselves, continuously learn and evolve. Socrates said it best:

“I know one thing, that I know nothing.”

Is Monty growing as a head coach? Does his work continually evoke that spirit of paradoxical search for wisdom?

The answer to that question varies from person to person. And like any mathematical pursuit, the answer lies somewhere there. There are an infinite number of answer to be had ranging from “HE SUCKS A$$. Let’s start a trend #FireMonty” to “OMG, Monty is the best coach i can’t believe your questioning him”. Somewhere between that is the answer we seek.

With all that in mind, remember that basketball is, unlike baseball, a team sport. And as such, it is very difficult to put basketball in a scale of black and white. There are grey areas, areas where nobody has ever conclusively answered yet. And as such, it is important to know everything and at the same time know nothing in order for each and every one of us to help find the answer to those grey areas. Think of every scenario, think of every possibility, of all options before making an answer. Think of the players, think of the coach, think of the franchise, think about the coaching market, about the fans, about the other team’s fans/franchise about all the other effects the answer can get. Then ask yourself, is Monty still the right coach?

This is my first time in Bullets Forever. I will admit that I am a Hornets fan. But i am a sucker for PGs. I follow John Wall, and love his potential. However, his start to the season worries me. Hence the article. This is in no way an indictment on your franchise, the fans or anything. It is just my way of calling out John Wall (in an artistic fashion) hoping he can become the next star PG. I actually hope Wall unseats Rose as the most exciting PG to watch in the league. Cheers.

There was a time when point guards were the runt of all positions in the NBA; when NBA point guards were dwarfed by the giants that roam the NBA landscape at the time. It was a position you could get by with replacement talent, so long as you have another ball handler to dominate the ball. Point guards weren’t really "point" guards back then but just a label for the smallest player in the team. Real point guards were few and far between. You know, Point guards who actually initiate their team’s offense?

Fast forward to today and the PG position has fast become the position of dire need due to the new hand check rules established to make the game faster and more exciting. One of the reasons quick and athletic PGs couldn’t dominate the NBA landscape decades ago was because there was no particular rule on hand checking. The physical play became so bad that for a time, the Detroit Pistons employed what they called the "Jordan Rule" – a rule which states that hack Jordan as hard as you can whenever he drives to the basket. Today? No more of those.

The NBA is now populated with quick and strong PGs who dominate the league. What was once a meaningless position is slowly turning into the prime position to be as a player. You have guys like Jrue Holiday, Brandon Jennings, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Lawson, Nash, Paul, Williams, Curry, etc.. The list goes on and on. It is becoming clear that having a good PG is a necessity. (It’s one of the reasons why so many Lakers fans are bashing the Lakers FO for not getting a solid PG to replace the physically challenged Fisher/Blake.) That is why for the Wizards, winning the prized lottery back in 2010 was a god send after a almost a year an a half of nothing but turmoil. In the ever evolving times of quick guards, that 2010 1st overall pick was the ultimate prize – a player with the rare combination of strength, coordination, speed, agility, skill and drive that was John Wall. He was their saviour.Or is supposed to be...

And with the 1st overall pick, the Washington Wizards select...

That Washington Wizard team was a mess. Prior to the 2009-2010 season, the Washington Wizards were a perennial playoff team. Starting in 2004-05, after the arrival of the scoring SF/PF Antawn Jamison, the log jam in the perimeter was gone. No longer did they have 3 slashers populating their wings in Arenas, Hughes and Stackhouse. Now, they had a clear Big 3 with games that somewhat fit. It wasn’t really a hand in glove fit, but it was enough to bring the franchise 4 straight playoff appearances after years of ineptitude. Things proved to be the same even after Hughes left for Cleveland. Soon after, WAS got a budding star in Caron Butler from the Lakers. However, the franchise turned for the worst when their then franchise player Gilbert Arenas tore his MCL. The franchise was never the same. Arenas never really got back on his feet and the franchise never really got its footing back up. Soon afterwards, Ed Jordan was fired. They tried to reload in 2009-10 (unloading their 5th pick that turned out to be Ricky Rubio for two solid role players in Randy Foye and Mike Miller). This gamble backfired. The results of the season forced the franchise to rebuild and trade Butler and Jamison for a bag of chips(none of the players they got are with the team right now). It was looking like trading the rights to Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio would kick the Wizards right in their ass. They only had a 10% chance of getting the prized rookie that was John Wall. However, as fairytales would have it, they lucked into the pick, and suddenly, the franchise has some foundation to build on.

And the rookie of the year is...

John Wall burst right out of the scenes for the Wizards. In his first 8 games, John Wall averaged around 18 pts, 10 ast, 4 reb, 3 stls, 43% FG, 75% FT.. He was taking charge. You could see the excitement in his step, the domination and drive that defined so many of the past PG superstars and upcoming stars like Westbrook, Rose, Paul and Williams. He attacked the basket like the heady PGs that came before him. And then injuries derailed his welcome. Wall would then miss 13 games due to various ailments, and played injured in some other games. He finished 2nd in the Rookie voting and didn’t win out of a technicality (Blake Griffin was a rookie because he missed his entire "official" rookie season with a knee injury). Everything was going well. Everybody Wizards fan were saying "We finally have a star PG who is capable of averaging 20 pts, while also dishing out a healthy number of assists and stealing the ball like the best. We have OUR guy."

NBA SEASON IS BACK! HOORAY! *sarcasm*

Off course, the 2010-2011 NBA season was foreshadowed by the looming labour negotiations, one that ultimately cost the NBA almost 2 months of NBA basketball. What followed was a compressed 66 game schedule. When I mean compressed, I really mean COMPRESSED. Training camp AND trading season AND signing season were all wrapped up into 2 weeks of pure mayhem. 2 weeks. Pre-season was limited to 5 days and 2 games. Not enough. For a sophomore like Wall, those summer league and training camps are important. Gone are the days when he could have worked on his game the way his coach Flip Saunders wanted him to. Maybe Flip wanted him to work on a jumper, maybe a deadly 15 ft. Develop some consistency in his stroke at the FT line. With the amount of fouls his drawing, making those FTs is as important as drawing them. Instead, what John Wall got is 2 months of personal workouts and exhibition games. People will not question Wall’s drive. I’m sure in those 2 months, he shot countless jumpers, shot a ton of FTs and generally worked on chiselling his frame some more, maybe putting on a little bit of weight to help with the contact. But those personal workouts lacked the guidance of a respected mentor that could point out some details that are bad. Maybe he lacked follow through with his shot, too little legs, too much arms in his shot. Maybe his FTs lacked discipline, lacked consistency. Maybe he made layups a little too fancy. 10 games into this compressed season, and it’s looking like the lockout robbed John Wall the opportunity to take that massive leap that everyone expected of the lightning quick guard. Instead what we get is a Wall that bricks shot after shot, a sophomore that’s lost his step, a superstar that hasn't taken this franchise to the next level.

Last year, Wall had the confidence of a leader ready to make his team better. In reality, he barely did. Wall registered a WS/48 of .041 (that is on average, he’s not actually contribution to team win, nor is he contributing to team losses). Although raw numbers indicate he had a pretty fantastic season for a rookie, in reality he had too many holes in his game that would be easy to counter, given some time to scout. He turned the ball way too many times; shot 16 footers way too many times and converted way too few of them (he took 4.2 attempts in that area /game, or ~30% of his total shots/game), he finished at the rim at only the league average for PGs (at 59.9%) and he allowed his opponents to score too many points(finished with a DRTG of 111, 4 pts below league average). Off course his rookie season did showcase qualities that made it a fantastic one. Below is a chart of Wall’s AST/36 and AST% back in his rookie season compared to notable PGs back in their rookie season.

Name Age as a rookie AST/36 min AST%

John Wall 20 7.9 36

Russell Westbrook 20 5.9 27.5

Derrick Rose 20 6.1 28.8

Brandon Jennings 20 6.3 29.6

Chris Paul 20 7.8 38.2

Deron Williams 21 5.6 28.6

Rajon Rondo 20 5.8 26.3

Jrue Holiday 19 5.7 24.4

Mike Conley 20 5.8 25.3

DJ Agustin 21 4.7 22.6

Steph Curry 21 5.9 24.6

Ty Lawson 22 5.6 24.2

As you can see, John Wall has the highest AST/36 min in that esteemed group which includes the like of Paul, Williams, Rondo, Westbrook and Rose. He also ranked 2nd only to CP3 in AST%. Overall, John Wall’s rookie season proved that he was a willing and capable passer. He was also a capable steals generator at 1.7 STL/36 and 2.4 STL% (percentage of opposing opponents possessions that end up into a steal). Also, John Wall is just 20 years old. Those 3 numbers are what makes Wizards fan hopeful.

Looking into the future

As it stands, Wall is struggling mightily. Although his best quality is still intact (averages 6.8 ast/36 and 33.4 AST %), he hasn’t improved on his weaknesses. He is finishing at a worst clip than last year (.413 TS%, YIKES) and generally being a huge reason why his Wizards are 1-9 and worst team in the league. He currently stands at a WS/48 of -0.029 – that’s 0.07 points worse than last year. He is actually contributing to his team’s losses, instead of contributing to wins.

To summarize, what is the point of this article? Well, it’s a call out to John Wall.

• A call out to play in more than one speed (currently, Wall plays at only one speed – REALLY FAST – which although allows him to zip to the rim at will, it also makes him very predictable since he doesn’t actually have a really great stop and pop jumper he can use. If Wall can learn to change speeds, then his lack of a jumper will not be such a hindrance to his effectiveness as a scorer).
• A call out to finish better at the rim by finishing the easy layup, instead of the reverse scoop layup or the up and under layup, which although looks cool, is also a harder shot to make.
  
• A call out to convert his free throws, which are called free throws for a reason. A call out to be a better leader, because leading is more than just doing your job. It’s making sure everybody does their job as well. It’s making sure everyone is held accountable when the gameplan fails, including himself. It’s about taking charge, like you did last year. It’s about becoming the FACE of the franchise.
  
• A call out to play smarter. One of the best ways to be an efficient player is to NOT turn the ball over. It’s better to get a shot up, than to get no shot at all. All stat geeks know this.
  
• And, my God, a call to help my fantasy team instead of being a drag to it. CMON BOY! GIMME SOME WINS!

I tried to make this as realistic as possible, offering reasons to why other team does this. That said, so that everyone's happy. let's assume 2 things:

1.) Chouest and local ownership group now owns the Hornets

2.) CBA has a few tweaks(lower pie in the BRI for players, amnesty clause, better revenue sharing, more stringent luxury tax penalties) but nothing major that will affect this offseason plan. 

-------------------------------------------

Hornets
trade: Landry(~6 million S&T)
receive: part of the Gortat TPE and Ryan Anderson

Magic
trade: Ryan Anderson
receives: Carl Landry

-- Magic get the perfect PF to pair with DHo. Landry can come of the bench and has proven that he can carry a bench, or start. Paired with DHo, and you got a very solid frontcourt.
--------------------------------------------------

Hornets
trade: Okafor
receives: Thabeet, Hill and TWill

Rockets
trade: Thabeet, Hill and TWill
receives: Okafor

-- Rockets need a C(they gave this offer minus TWill to GSW for Biedrins). by adding TWill, Rockets get a better C in Okafor.
----------------------------------------------

Hornets
trade: Trevor Ariza
receive: Amir Johnson

Raptors
trade: Amir Johnson
receive: Trevor Ariza

-- Raptors have a logjam at PF/C (especially with Jonas coming in 2012). So they trade the one who's most logical(Ed Davis is too valuable, Bargs has low value so just hold on to him) and get a defensive SF(which they lack).
----------------------------------------------
Hornets then renounce rights to DWest, Gray, Banks, Green, and Jason Smith. thereby giving them a total salary of 43 817 755(giving them a total of 14 182 245 in cap space). They sign Nene to a 64 million/5 years(12 million starting) or just throw the whole cap space at Nene. Hornets then offer Grant Hill the remainder of that cap space(2nd year team option) and sign Willie Green, Patrick Ewing Jr. and David Lighty to min-contracts.

Chris Paul | Jarrett Jack
Marco Belinelli | Willie Green | David Lighty
Grant Hill | Terrence Williams | Quincy Pondexter
Amir Johnson | Ryan Anderson | Patrick Ewing Jr.
Nene Hilario | Jordan Hill | Hasheem Thabeet

[b]-- Why Hornets do all of this --[/b]
basic premise is, in 2012 Hornets have CP3, Ariza, Jack, Okafor and Quincy Pondexter under contract(assuming they go with 1 year rentals). but a team with CP3, Ariza, Jack, Okafor and Pondexter, with possibly 1 year rentals(especially at starting PF slot) in Kenyon Martin, Tracy Mcgrady, etc.. will have a difficult time making the playoffs because they have no offensive fire punch.

After the slew of trades that happened, at least they converted Ariza's contract to a smaller contract in Amir. and convert Okafor's contract to basically expirings(3 rookie scaled contracts). They were also able to get some value for Landry in the form of Ryan Anderson. Then use the cap space they created to sign Nene. There are a total of 5 teams that have will surely have cap space for 2011 and 10 teams(including New Orleans) that are on the bubble to get cap space. Of these 15, i've removed the Kings, Raptors, Rockets(because if this trade happens, they just got Okafor), Pistons, Warriors, Wolves, Wizards, Suns, Bobcats, Bucks because they are either young(so they won't need Nene) or are rebuilding(Nene won't go there) or do not have significant cap space to offer Nene. that leaves NO with 4 competitors to Nene's services namely - Pacers, Nets, Clippers and Denver. Nets won't probably sign Nene with hopes of signing Howard. Clippers have DeAndre to think about, who fits better with Griffin anyway. New Orleans then has only the Pacers and Nuggets to bid with Nene's services. Both those teams don't have the luxury of saying - you get to play with CP3.

2012 comes, and Hornets only major players under contract are Amir(at approximately 6 mil) Jack(at approximately 5) and Nene(at approximately 13). What NOLA can do is either build of this team or trade Nene for Howard in a S&T(which would look appealing to Orlando if Howard doesn't resign).

Thoughts?

i am not here to troll not here to give trade speculation. just here to be a mourner.. do not let basketball die in your city. i am not from Ohio, heck, im not even from America. But i am an avid avid ... avid fan of basketball. i may not sound as optimistic as your owner, but better things are sure to come.. build through the draft. i know its hard, i know its going to be long. but its going to reap the best benefits. stick to your plan.. look at OKC. i understand how difficult it is NOT to build a champion through the draft. and it sucks. look at my hornets.. we were supposed to be where OKC is right now, but because of terrible free agent signings, we were stuck. we did have great drafts, although some of them didn't pan out as expected.. again i say it. build through the draft. thats all i have to say..

i am a hornets fan, and im hoping we do not end up like you guys did. i speak for a lot of people when i say.. "its going to be alright. we feel for you.." 

Hello Guys,

Just like last year, I am here to breakdown each hornets player, so that it can help other hornets fans come up with reasonable trades for the hornets(offseason is the time of speculation, followed closely by the trade deadline HAHA)

To start, I think most people would consider Paul untouchable. Chouest has stated that Paul is going nowhere. So i'm not going to really analyze him, because he is a top 5 player in the NBA right now(even after the injuries).

Consider also that expirings will be viewed differently this year, because so many teams will have cap room, and with the looming possibility of a lockout, it may carry less value as compared to an expiring last year(right before the free agent bonanza).

That said, lets begin...

Peja Stojakovic - 15 336 000

> huge expiring, was hurt last season, mostly seen as deadweight around the league. Can shoot the ball, is a better defender the most people give him credit for, but is known to be soft around the league, which hugely affects his rep.

grade:C+ but eventually rises and peaks to a B+ right around the trade deadline

Emeka Okafor - 12 540 375

> a bulky person in the middle, has no go to move in the offense but still reliable in the offensive side. not a great post defender, but a great help defender from the weakside. great rebounder. Sets good picks, doesn't have good hands, and largely seen as an OP center. (my opinion: he may be overpaid, but center's who are reliable both on offense and defense are rare in the league)

grade: C+

David West - 8 287 500

> soft hands, great scorer, both from the low and high post. great pick and pop player. great FT% for a big man has developed into a pretty good passer. has a front loaded contract. an average rebounder(sucky if compared to his position), regularly a bad defensive player but when motivated transforms into a pretty solid one.

grade: B

Morris Peterson - 6 641 440

>great team guy, great professional, more than adequate 3 point shooter( excellent from the corner). average defender, uses size to cancel out slow footedness.  has not had a great statistical time in NOLA. Huge expiring but mostly seen as deadweight around the league.

grade: C

James Posey - 6 478 600

> was out of shape to start the season, and never really got back to the build he wanted or needed to excel. Will need to work hard during the offseason to develop into anything useful for the hornets, or for any trade partner. Bad percentages, but improved as a rebounder.

grade:D

Darius Songaila - 4 818 000

> a good mid range shooter, good FT shooter, good pick and roll defender. Not much of anything else. bad post, bad help defender. not a great rebounder or shot blocker. but is an expiring..

grade: C

Julian Wright - 2 858 056

> a good rebounder, has no reliable offensive move except for that spin move(which is still horrible). an OK on ball defender, a bad team defender. expiring contract.Mostly seen as a bust

grade: C

Darren Collison

> good on ball defender, good 3 pt and FT shooter, high assist rate, good scorer. has proven to be a capable starter. seen as a potential top 10 PG. his value is increased by the fact that the draft is not laden with PG talent...

grade: A

Marcus Thornton

> GREAT scorer. has a multitude of offensive moves at his disposal: runner, floater, fade away, 3 pt shot. Can finish at the rim, can find cracks in the defense, by moving efficiently and using picks effectively. Has gobs of potential untapped.

grade: B+

11th pick

> not much value because this draft is seen as a top 4 draft and everybody else. but contains a lot of big men..

grade: B

C is passable, D is not so good.

To finalize we have 9 trade assets(Peja, Okafor, West, Songaila, Wright, Peterson, Collison, Thornton, 11th pick) however keep in mind that expiring mean less this year than in previous years.

post trade possibilities via comments.

Okay, post away! I will post mine if i have any ideas..pls post reasons for both teams accepting the deal

OK i forgot how to make a fanpost, and this is going to be very quick.. 

im mad at byron scott for not being a motivational speaker to the players. not a sign of a good leader.

i know our wings are a question mark but i have a quick fix( in paper) for what seems to be a weak link for the hornets....

next year, the hornets will have a lot of expiring contracts. and I mean A LOT. what i would like to happen is the following.. 

trade mo pete and darius songaila for kevin martin...

now what would our team look like?

paul || collison

martin || brown or thornton

wright || peja

west || posey

okafor || diogu

and we can still trade peja for a BIG MAN( maybe 7'0? hahah were a small team) and slide posey to 3, diogu to 4.. 

we'd still have marks for 3rd string big man. thornton for injured swing man... just a thought. comments on kevin martin fitting hornets. 

guys sorry for this message, but i know people from New Orleans can understand us.You may have heard of the typhoon that ravaged the northern part of the Philippines. I am a Filipino and the first floor of my home was flooded. Everything is all right now in our home, my family is safe. But people in areas who were much more afflicted by Typhoon "Ondoy" are still in relief camps right now because they have no place to go. All i am asking from the people of new orleans is pray for us. Thats all thank you for your support

[Great FanPost from nikkoewan. I haven't had the time to post much recently, so this is a great starting point. -atthehive]

First and fore most, check out my first fan post about the off season - 2009 10 off season

In this fan post, I will help other people come up with trade possibilites( don't we as fans just love speculating?).

As many of us here in the hornets community(hornets247 and atthehive) have suggested or implied, only one player is untouchable - Paul. ( But it breaks my heart not to include West and Chandler, they have a strong bond and that is important. Juju can become a touchable lol)

i will enumerate our trade chips and give them a letter grade to indicate how valuable they are:(numbers are 09 10 contract)

West - $ 9 075 000

- very cheap contract, front contract -> goes down every year, 28 years old, contract covers whole of prime(until 31)

grade: B+

Chandler - $ 12 300 000

too big a contract for what has been an injured player( also extends up to 2010 11 season). trade rescindment hurt his value, his toe hurt his value so much. however i do believe(hope) that this off season, the hornets will make all possible ways to ensure chandler is healthy( to increase trade value (possibly announcing things like chandler to consult specialist on ankle and toe, chandler doing well with rehab from two surgery, chandler running and gunning with paul in practice etc). However, Chandler is a 26 year old 7'0 center and good centers are rare in the NBA.

grade: B

Julian Wright - $ 2 000 040

has great upside, showed that he can become the next matrix( can do everything well). only 21 years old and has a long way before being called a bust( for a lottery) and has the professionalism and work ethic to be something else in the NBA. However, Basketball IQ is questionable, it may benefit him to play somewhere else where he can get many minutes to experience NBA basketball.

grade: C+

Rasual Butler - $ 3 945 000

has had a renaissance of a season and only upped his value with clutch performances from down town. great on ball defender( against SG who are strong but not quick), great help defender( especially on weak side blocks almost averaged a block per game). has an expiring contract, although not to big( decreases value). overall, a great trade chip for the hornets.

grade: B

Hilton Armstrong - $ 2 801 198

what more is there to say? bad footwork, bad hands, not a rebounder, not a great defender, not (insert basketball term).however, there are still a few NBA scouts who think he can turn into a serviceable( or above serviceable) center in the future. only 24 years old. expiring contract.

grade: C

Peja Stojakovic - $ 13 392 000

contract extends until 2010 11 season. not a great physical defender, but more than average team an IQ defender. has many injuries( including pride) is 31 years old, slow feet. however, he may have a good year next year, following an offseason of work outs and surgery and stuff. but thats all speculation. overall, only trade value is that he can get hot anytime from beyond the arc.

grade:D ( or F??)

Antonio Daniels - $ 6 600 000

hefty expiring contract( thats a big plus), more than adequate defender, great distributor, great veteran, great team mate. but he is old, 34, has no shooting touch. just an expiring contract.

grade: C+

James Posey - $ 6 031 800

great team guy, locker guy. tough, rugged defender, more than adequate 3 point shooter. although tough and rugged, a very slow footed one. Has a tendency to overfoul, also has a tendency to take bad shots in the post. contract runs through 2011 - 2012 and by then he would be 35.

grade: D( for non contending teams), C( for contending teams)

Morris Peterson - $ 5 800 000

great team guy, great professional, more than adequate 3 point shooter( excellent from the corner). average defender, uses size to cancel out slow footedness. contract runs through 2011 2012. has not had a great statistical time in NOLA(average last year, abysmal this year).

grade: D

C is a passing for tradeability, D is not so good.

we have 6 trade assets( West, Chandler, Wright, Butler, Hilton, Daniels). 7 if we include Posey to a contending team( our bad contract for your bad contract thing).

now, start typing and put your suggestions here, i'll post mine( via comments) here so that we can get an idea of what we( as a whole) want..

as i write this fan post, my heart is filled with anger, sadness, and hope.

first, anger against jeff bower and george shinn - this is not being pessimistic, but really, the only way to build a great team nowadays,when money and loyalty is everything, is through the draft.bits and pieces( maybe 1 or 2) should be taken from the free agent pool( and at a modest rate i must add especially for a small market like our very own). Bower never really understood that, he thought that free agents is where amazing happens, but its not, its in the draft.

Look at the spurs who WERE built through the draft. The spurs have great scouts and a great eye for talent and character( Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Salmons, Scola, Barbosa, Udrih, Splitter, Hill - pls include Josh Howard he was supposed to be a Spur draftee, but they traded the pick to save money for Kidd). Although they did not keep or sign all of their draft picks(Salmons - PHI, Barbosa - PHO, Scola - ??, Splitter - Next season i think, Howard - Kidd), you can't deny it, Spurs Management has an eye for talent.

The bulls of yore( Jordan, Grant, Armstrong, Stacey King, traded for Pippen on Draft night) then added pieces that were right for their price( Paxson, Kerr, Harper, Rodman, Longley etc). The Mavs of yore( Kidd, Mashburn, JJ, Dirk) and i could think of a lot of teams built through the draft.

Looking at the Hornets previous draft picks( after Paul), we were not doing so well. We did not hold on to Bass. 2006 draft - instead of Hilton, Cedric and Haluska( say what?), we could have drafted a number of players right here:

Thabo, Brewer, Balkman, Shannon Brown, MILLSAP, POWE!!

(bold for 12 and 15 pick, while Italicized for our 43 pick)

2007 draft:( although Julian for me is alright but Haluska isn't)

43 pick: MARC GASOL, DOMINIC MCGUIRE( who i really admire), AARON GRAY, and Taurean Green( who could have been a Jannero Pargo for Paul - look at eurobasket.com for stats, he shoots 40% from 3 pt range!! and is a great defender)

2008 draft: I really did not see the Posey signing as needed at that time, but i knew the team needed a leader of the bench now that Pargo left, but a few million wouldnt have hurt. A million?

27:Arthur, Chalmers, Jordan, MBAH A MOUTE, Weaver, Douglas - Roberts( who on draft night, many hornets fans were clamoring if i remember correctly), Mike Taylor.

that was why I was placing great importance in the 2009 draft, i did not have inside look on the scouting reports on each player, and will not have sufficient workout results on draft camp but it is important that the bees start in this year's draft to rebuild.

Looking at the Previous signings( in my recent memory of being a fan of the hornets which is 2004 - 2005 when they drafted paul, and 2005 when katrina struck the big easy)

Peja Stojakovic, Rasual Butler, Peterson, Posey, Peja Stojakovic(oops i said that again).

ranking by worst to best: Peja, Peja, Peterson, Posey, Butler....

looking at that 2006 draft, we could have improved by drafting any of the said players above, or trading our draft picks for future draft picks( like some teams do if the draft is not to deep).

we could have drafted in 2007, where the SF was overflowing with talent( not including Juju):

Rudy Fernandez, Chandler *gulp* Thornton, Splitter( who i really believe is going to be a solid NBA player), Almond, Etc...

we could have done what the Spurs, the Bulls of Yore, the Blazers, the Thunder and Grizzlies( hopefully if they keep drafting wisely) did/do.

instead we are left with this really old, really screwed up team... here is some looks of the Hornets team we could have had if Bower was wiser( starting in 2006, and I still would have gone through with the Tyson Trade)...

Draft Thabo with 12 pick, Draft Millsap with 43 pick( HOME BOY!!). Trade 15 pick to a 20 to 30 pick in 2007.

Roster 2006:

Starters: Paul, Butler, Mason, West, Chandler

Bench: Pargo, Devin( the good one), Thabo, Bass, Jackson

when West injured, Bass starts( we discover his skills), we use Millsap as bench

prediction: 39 - 43 ( no playoffs)

Draft: 2007

Draft Juju at 12

Draft Rudy at 22( Bobcats pick, Jordan would accept this and with the 15 pick in 2006, he would draft DAVID NOEL, LOLZ)- > unsigned

Marc Gasol with 43 pick-> unsigned

we let bass go( one of the wiser Bowers plunder), we trade for marks( conditional 20xx pick) haha

sign Kapono to same deal( instead of Mo, who was old)

Starters: Paul,Butler, Kapono, West, Chandler

Bench, Pargo, Thabo, Wright, Millsap, Marks - > what a small front court average of 6'8. haha.

Predictions: 60 - 24. Kapono is an upgrade over Peja at this time( Kapono shooting the same, and can back down somebody, although not as smart defensively as Peja). Lose to Lakers in 7.

 Then 2008

27: Draft Chalmers

sign Rudy and Gasol

Pargo walks away to Moscow

Starters: Paul, Butler, Kapono, West, Chandler

Bench: Chalmers, Rudy, Wright, Millsap, Gasol

Predictions: 64 - 18. 2nd best record in west, 3rd in league( behind Cavs, and Lakers). WIN NBA FINALS IN 5 over CAVS.

See the difference? Sorry for this tedious research nonsense( thanks to Basketball-reference.com for the draft pick knowledge on every team, Hoopstats.com for idea on the NOLA roster each year, NBA.com for draft coverage and Google for Free agent list.)

Let Bower read this. Some points may be invalid today( like will Millsap ever develop as a second fiddle here? will Chalmers, Rudy and Gasol like a backup role? will they excel? am I downplaying the effect of Peja( offense, defense). draft day uncertainties, etc..

But if you had a better staff, and keener sense in drafting, we would be in a different situation.

For next season, CHANGE OUR GM or OUR SCOUTS

if only we could....

(sorry specifically to atthehive for this useless fanpost. i think its over the top. but after the denver ownage, i just had to tell some hornets fans how i felt...feel free to kick me out of the community)

I was trying to find a way to find hope in a lost season, and I think that a trip to the 2nd round, much like last year, would make this season a success.

Anyway, looking at the Hornets roster, I clearly see 3 major problems:

1.) lack of another big man(bench)

2.) there is a plethora of wingmen - some over utilized ( ehem, Brick Brown), some under utilized( Wright and Peterson).

3.) we lack a 3rd or 4th(if Peja is still considered) player who can create on his own consistently. The keyword here is consistently - butler has some nights, Posey has some nights, and as bad as he as been, Brown even has some nights.( this 3rd or fourth option can go the bench)

Therefore, what can be done to improve this over the offseason?

first, I believe the untouchables for this group are the following: Paul, West, Chandler, Wright.

we can trade one or two of our 6 wing men( Butler, Stojakovic, Posey, Wright, Peterson, Brown),

resign Marks to the same contract, and let Ely and Bowen go( both are seldom used, although i would like Bowen to stay).

Bower should not pull out another bobby jackson for James for Daniels for (put name here with a average, non expiring contract PG).

therefore, I have thought of possible scenarios I like( well I hope you like too).

• consider that the Hornets have the 7th worst record in the 16 playoff teams( only DET, CHI, PHI, MIA, ATL and UTH have a worse record). therefore we may possibly get the 21st pick in the NBA draft. according to 82games.com, on average the 21st pick has produced a 13.1 which is a more than average role player.
  
• consider too that Paul's extension kicks in next season so we may be pushed well into the luxury tax. this may become a factor in my analysis of potential moves.(signings)
  
• consider that we have the Bi annual exception( i dont think we used it in the 2008 - 09 offseason) and a midlevel exception. I estimate that both are approx. 1.75 and 5 mil, respectively,
• we also take into consideration the fact that many teams will lobby for an expiring contract(much like us) and also prepare for the summer of lebron, wade, blablabla.therefore, we have a few expiring contracts( Sool, Armstrong, Daniels, Brown(if option is taken), Wright( if option is taken).

here are all the things we can do to improve on the off season.

1. hire a shooting coach(much like lebron, calderon, parker etc) to work with Juju in Chicago( hometown). This should be imperative as we need him to improve big time in shooting. Also, tell Scott to work with Juju one on one on training camps to help with his defensive rotations. I believe the reason Juju is lost defensively sometimes is because he did not participate well in the training camps with his injury. this might change this off season.
2. Trade Peja for Dalembert. What does this move do for us? well we basically would solve the first two problems but complicate the 3rd problem and also save a 1 million or less( Peja's contract is slightly bigger). I do believe that the 76ers might agree to this why? They clearly play better small, they have Speights improving and they need 3 pt shooting, and clearly, if your going to spend money, why not improve your weakness? i clearly see the 76ers sporting a lineup of Miller, Green, Iggy, Young and Brand with Williams, Speights, Green and Peja the first guys of the bench with sporadic minutes for evans and ivey( along with Marshall if he resigns).

if we do trade peja, we still have a draft pick, and butler, armstrong as trade baits.

therefore, here are some things we can do...

a.)Draft Blair, Hansbrough*update include Patrick Patterson( according to nbadraft.net) - i see blair as a "Millsap" with more refined post moves. hansbrough can become a better Bowen for us - hustler, rebounder, and Great basketball IQ( which bodes well for his relationship with Scott because Coach doesnt usually play rooks and sophs with low basketball IQ: see Juju, JR Smith). this solves problems 1 and 2 even more. Drafting Blair, I believe kind of cures our problem 3. i see him, along with Posey, as the primary scorers of the bench. Hansbrough is basically a Bowen with more offensive moves, so again solves problem 3 but again not totally.

Lineup: Paul, Peterson, Butler, West, Chandler

Reserves: Daniels, Wright, Posey, Blair/Hansbrough, Dalembert.

b.) draft Teague, sign Novak, Mashall, or Diogu to less than 1 mil. I like this better because we stock pile on talent( Teague) and at the same time solving our bench problems( Novak and Marshall are basically the same, Diogu is great in the post but bad on defense - complements well with Dalembert).

Lineup: Paul, Peterson, Butler, West, Chandler

Reserves: Daniels, Wright, Posey, Novak/Marshall/Diogu Dalembert with spot minutes to Teague(if Daniels or Wright play badly)

This is all considering we will not use our Mid level and Bi annual exceptions, to save money. but if Shinn gives Bower the permission to use them( that is a very BIG IF), we have a lot of possible targets.

1.) Ben Gordon( unlikely),  Varejao( if Peja - Sam does not go through -> unlikely), Bass(unlikely), Andersen(unlikely), CJ watson( restricted), Singleton, W. Bynum( unlikely Pistons do not exercise his Team option), Kleiza, Jack( I like this one although restricted), Wafer(unlikely) Ariza and Shannon Brown( both unlikely), Juan Carlos Navarro!!( unlikely) and Warrick( unlikely), Bobby Brown, Carney, Gortat, Matt Barnes(unlikely), Jackson( if possible, only 1 or 2 years), Gooden( i also like this one -> we then draft Teague :D), Delfino and Parker( both unlikely)...

however i did not delve deeper into the mid level exception and bi annual exception because it is highly unlikely that we can use them( with the luxury tax in shinn's mind). that is why i had analyzed those cheap ones( the Peja - Sam and draftings and lineups) thanks to 82games.com...

we should keep Hilton and Daniels( allow their contracts to expire) and Butler( obvious reasons).

so basically, Hornets are not really doomed, we just need to become like the Spurs, rely on our drafts to get good role players, and Denver, rely on our cheap signings to get good role players.

Geaux Hornets!!

Dream playoffs:

NO in 6 against Denver, NO in 6 against HOU, NO in 6 against LAL, NO in 6 against CLE

we have all suggested that peja be our sixth man, and posey play 15 to 20 minutes. but that would seriously destroy the hornets rotation. byron scott would not love that cause he would be thinking of a new rotation. so to help byron scott, here is a rotation screen where peja is our sixth man.

via i596.photobucket.com

there. the numbers on the right are minutes played. as you can see. even though peja is our sixth man, he plays 30 minutes. CP3 plays 34 minutes, west plays 33 minutes, TC plays 34 minutes, butler plays 31 minutes. but the important thing here is we have an offensive option everytime. as you can see, when west goes out, peja goes in. when peja comes out, west comes in. on the 2nd quarter, 9 min mark. paul is surrounded by shooters, so than takes care of the offense. if paul is trapped boom, THREEE. otherwise, we can post posey, or iso juju( although this may lead to a turnover, at least). 

so what if daniels plays poorly? in the measly 14 minutes he plays? all he needs to do is orchestrate the offense( give the ball to west or peja). we have *gulp* brown to replace. the same goes for marks and armstrong ely. the good thing is, mo pete isnt even on the rotation. 

i am not saying we should use this rotation for every games. but we should use this rotation when playing gimme games - new york, memphis, clippers etc. that extra 6 to 7 minute rest means a lot. 

also, if daniels and brown play so poorly, we can experiment juju, butler and peja/posey at the same time with the other bigs. juju and butler can handle the ball, so i hope there would be no problem there. 

also in this rotation scheme, we play 2 types of defenses, the normal face guard, where our last resort is TC(when he's in the game) or a disrupting defense adept at rotations and clogging passing lanes with lengthy arms( such as when Peja and Posey are on the floor at the same time). 

i know there are flaws in this rotation, but at least its and experiment. comments and suggestions?

can the NOR participate in the bidding wars for gooden, smith( highly unlikely - wrapped and packaged to CLE LMAO), mihm, swift and head?

if we can just get one big man( gooden, smith, mihm or swift) plus head... we'd be rolling a depth chart of:

Paul and Butler - Stojakovic and West - Chandler

Head and Daniels/brown/wright/peterson- Posey/Wright and Marks and the big man( i think swift or mihm are very possible).

that would be a better bench than what we had right now with head being a speedster and swift or mihm big bodies who can rebound..

however, with the luxury tax weighing on George Shinn's budget conscious mind, i wonder what Jeff Bower can do??

if head gets snatched by another team, is pargo available?

please j. bower george shinn! we don't have any more mid level exception, is the bi annual exception possible? if not, another 1 M in the book wouldnt hurt nobody, if it meant more revenues in the post season for your greedy spirit G. Shinn. plsss!!! head and swift/mihm to NOR!!!

hi i am new here at the hive and a hornets fan outside of US, but i still read a lot of blogs bout the hornets. here goes my first fan post...

pls free JuJu! i am lamenting with all of you about the lack of PT that JuJu is receiving. Free JuJu!

and about our back up big men, everybody is talking about hilton's lack of rebounding so i have a lot of suggestions on my mind, comments are welcome.

First, cant we get amir and walter from detroit? i played around with the trade machine and we can get them by using mo pete and either devin, ely or marks. we would get a big man who can shoot from the outside and a rebounder shot blocker. although i doubt pistons would agree.

We can also target Ike Diogu from Portland. Undersized but has a knack for positioning for rebounds with his big body. Also has a nice touch around the rim, complements Hilton well( Hilton for D, Ike for O).

Can't we be part of the Mike Miller talks?

Lastly, is there anyway that we can get Sean Williams? I know getting another young athletic forward doesnt suit Byron's mind but its great if he realizes his potential with CP3s leadership. just dreaming of things.

if i can just dream, we get ike diogu using our three most inefficient players( brown, ely and marks). then we trade mo pete and rasual for mike miller.

we'd be rolling a lineup of

paul, miller, peja, west, chandler

daniels, juju, posey, diogu, armstrong

we can then sign courtney sims( i think his contract already ended) to a 10 day contract and/or coby carl, hendrix, (strawberry) blablabla....

although this would seriously destroy the chemistry, with butler out, at least we upgraded.

anyway, its nice to dream!:D