If Eric Gordon is available before the trade deadline, this deal could help everyone involved.

PHX: Jared Dudley + 2012 1st rd pick for Eric Gordon
Recently the Suns have been playing with more confidence than at any point since the Gortat trade. Eric Gordon, though injured and essentially out for the year in New Orleans, provides youth (23 yrs. old), explosive scoring and clutch shooting. If the Suns medical team believes Gordon can come back strong from the knee injury, a package of Dudley and the 1st rd pick looks reasonable.

NOH: Eric Gordon + Chris Kaman for Derrick Williams, Jared Dudley, Michael Beasley, Jordan Hill + PHX's 2012 1st Rd Pick
Eric Gordon does not want to be a Hornet. He was surprised by the Chris Paul deal and felt disrespected by the Clips, had something like a week to prepare for the shortened season, then was seriously injured in the first week of play. Later his contract was not extended, and while the knee injury has to be a huge part of that, it may have as much to do with his apparent desire to play elsewhere. The Hornets can let Gordon go and receive two very solid starters at positions of need. Carl Landry and Marco Bellinelli are both on expiring deals, so Derrick Williams and Jared Dudley round out the decent core of Jack-Ariza-Okafor. Derrick Williams looks ready to take over a team and play superstar, this would be his opportunity. New Orleans would also draft twice in the top 10 or 15 this year. Less than a year after trading Paul, the Hornets would be on the path to a solid rebuild.

HOU: Kevin Martin + Jordan Hill for Chris Kaman
Martin is unhappy in Houston and Courtney Lee can produce as a starter. Chris Kaman's expiring contract provides the Rockets with a lot of flexibility this summer.

MIN: Derrick Williams + Michael Beasley for Kevin Martin
Rick Adelman and Kevin Martin have a mutual respect from their days back in Houston, letting Williams and Beasley go allows them to pair Rubio and Love with a pure shooter. Martin's numbers are down this year, he'd have a chance to bump those up playing alongside Rubio and Love. The TWolves will have to send Williams out at some point now that Love has been extended and is playing like the best PF in the league. This deal makes MIN more competitive in the short- and long-term.

The FO heads into a 5-6 month stretch of extraordinarily important decision-making. Trade deadline. Draft. Free agency. The drafting of Morris was more than a bright spot, however, it was validation for the coaches and the FO. Gentry said Morris could contribute "right away," and many of us laughed. PFs need time to adjust to the NBA game. Well Morris was a great pick-up, he can look like a polished vet from time to time. So amid all the "what of Nash?" talk, the request for patience is earned. The Gortat trade was so lopsided, too, granted we bandaged over a self-inflicted wound. This FO has made some excellent moves recently.

The heated Nash discussions throughout these posts should make us proud, but now seems a fine time to step back before the trade deadline whirlwind really hits. For those of us insisting the team would not return to elite status with Nash remaining a Sun (my own present sympathies), let's just consider the other possibility. Nash and Gortat stay. How do we return to elite status so soon?

Continue reading this post »

* For a Suns team suffering through early-season offensive woes, could Gortat "carry" the team for stretches at a time? Marcin continues to impress overall. His footwork and hook shot stand out, he's definitely looking for his shot, which is perhaps most encouraging of all. (A few times Tim Duncan seemed surprised at how quickly Gortat was catching and converting.) However, Gortat also had a season-high 4 FTAs against the Spurs! He is now averaging only 1.8 FTAs/game. If he's a good enough shooter to have opposing players respect the mid-range game, he has to drive hard to the rim more, risking contact. Consider Gortat's evolution on the defensive end. He has been taking charges more than I can ever recall, a sign of court awareness and smarts. If the finger is now healthy, he should play far more aggressive. The finger injury was hugely important, not underestimating its impact over the first few weeks. He also averaged 3.2 FTAs in 55 games last year. If Gortat adjusted his game I would enjoy watching more of the offense move through him. At that point perhaps he could carry the offense in stretches.

* In spite of the recent chucking, Shannon Brown deserves consideration for the starting lineup. Dudley has clearly struggled and not exactly locked down the starter spot. It's hard to see how Dudley averages more than 11/game. Thinking about the upside of Shannon Brown is like looking at the MC Escher stairs, up becomes down becomes up. He blows assignments and forces off-balance jumpers, but his athleticism and ability to create/get to the line are sorely needed. I could see Brown with the Suns for a long time, really enjoy him already rooting for teammates. If Dudley looks more and more like a backup, and Brown shows steady improvement as a decision-maker, what could it hurt to start Brown?

* Thoughts on this, especially #3? Moving Kyle Lowry to get Pau Gasol is very, very debatable. Because Nash will never play alongside Kobe in a Lakers jersey, anyone have suggestions for a workable HOU-POR-PHX deal, with Nash landing in Portland? Maybe a cross between deals 2 and 3?

* Do the Phoenix Suns have any official MLK Day-related events? Arizona has a peculiar history with the holiday and was actually punished by the NBA in the 1980s for not embracing it. "On the same day the recall drive was announced, [then-Governor Evan] Mecham, when told the NBA withdrew its annual meeting from Phoenix as a protest of the cancellation of King's birthday, responded, 'I guess they forgot how many white people they got coming to watch them play.'" I've heard of other NBA cities organizing events, just curious.

JRich and Gani Lawal for Kris Humphries and Troy Murphy (+ PHX picks as needed)
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2da24rd

* Melo is along for the ride in trade proposal bumper cars for now. Murphy likely goes if DEN and NJ reach any deal, so this trade assumes Melo does not become a Net.

NJN

Pre-Trade

7-19 club that may not land savior 2.0: a 1st round loss should satisfy Nets fans but a no-show looks disastrous after so much hype about the new ownership, coach and team direction. The Nets are currently an offensive bottom-dweller. The inconsistent Harris and Lopez shoulder so much of the burden and the Nets lack both veteran presence and a reliable third scoring option.

1. If NJ keeps Favors will the Nets pay Humphries as well? They have much deeper pockets now and Humphries has made a case for Most Improved.
2. Will NJ pursue a scorer and "win now" if Melo heads elsewhere?

Post-Trade

The Nets can grow into a solid 2nd-tier EC team and battle for a postseason spot in Avery's first year. Last year JRich showed explosive scoring and mettle in the playoffs, his numbers should remain consistent in Avery's system. He can be re-signed for less and, unlike a Curry or Stojakovic, helps win playoff games. JRich still can work the perimeter, slash and finish, and at his size he can play 2 or 3.

Harris/Farmar
Morrow/Vujacic
JRich/Outlaw
Favors/Lawal
Lopez/Petro

PHX

Pre-Trade

Gentry has spoken to three major concerns:

1. Consistent, fundamentally sound rebounding and defense
2. Nash window (if Nash leaves, he leaves)
3. Overload at 2-3

Post-Trade

The Suns address all 3 concerns: they achieve a balanced depth and improve in defense/rebounding with the acquisition of Humphries alone. PHX has the money to re-sign Humphries, everyone can wait and see if Murphy returns to form with minutes. This team has a much better chance to compete deep into the playoffs.

Nash/Dragic
Hill/JChill
Hedo/Dudley
Humphries/Murphy/Warrick
Lopez/Frye

Can PHX use its TPE from the Stoudemire deal on Reggie Evans? He grabs just under 12 rebounds for the Raptors and is in the final year of his deal ($5M). Toronto is 1-7 but his recent play has recieved attention--you may remember the booty call? Unless Toronto plays itself back into contention Triano should give the younger Amir Johnson and Ed Davis more minutes. A 30 yr. old energy guy like Evans should not toil away on a lottery-bound team.

In the SAC loss Casspi, Landry, Cousins and Thompson hauled in a combined 36 rebounds, one-third on the offensive glass. It’s safe to assume a healthy POR, HOU, SA and LAL will outrebound PHX this year. Now consider SAC w/Dalembert and the LAC w/Blake Griffin next to Kaman. I am not worried over the meaningless preseason blowouts. But when once-bottom-dweller division teams can exploit a real weakness?  

Hedo will rarely scrap and sacrifice his body for rebounds, he has a set of different responsibilities. But an undersized Turkoglu at PF means Lopez will likely experience frustration on the defensive end. Lopez is expected to corral rebounds even though he’ll frequently have to provide weak side help (i.e. when Hedo gets beat off the dribble). The result: Robin may struggle w/foul trouble once more, he needs help. Maybe Dampier provides it, but there are other options.

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Like John Stockton, Steve Nash is a model of point guard consistency who has quietly improved with age. Nash was always more than a run-n-gun marshmallow because he flashed grit and finesse. His teams won going back to Santa Clara. So why does this two-time MVP continue to cast his teams in the underdog mold? The dominance of Duncan and Kobe over the last decade have had much to do with it, as well as what we can call the luck deficit. The FO needs a Gasol moment to win it all this year. Nonetheless, the Suns are remarkably close to a championship. Nash could be the Finals MVP at 37 or 38.

Continue reading this post »

The Lakers return as favorites to three-peat. A handful of teams can match their depth, size and versatility. Three months out I’m not having much luck scrubbing the mental image of Artest celebrating at the end of Game 5. “Say Queensbridge.” With the first shot at regular season redemption fast approaching, how does PHX currently match up against the LAL?

33/7/8: Kobe’s line in the WCF. Hill, Dudley and JChill will need to become more physical when guarding Kobe. Hustle perimeter defense and hands in the face on circus fadeaways (somehow) only went so far. SGs quick and strong enough to front and then bump Kobe as he drives—think Raja Bell and Tony Allen—have had some success. If PHX’s trio adopted a more defensive mentality Kobe just might return to earth in a future 6-game series. Will PHX’s new players (esp. JChill) help or will Gentry simply rely on stopping everyone not named Kobe?

PHX can neutralize Gasol by forcing him out of the paint and making him move laterally as a defender. PHX now can do both w/Hedo facilitating @ 20 ft. out and Warrick slashing and finishing around the rim. Warrick’s quickness and hops may frustrate Gasol and even draw Bynum into foul trouble. Hedo’s a gamer and there’s reason to think his best games will come against the likes of Pau. The much-discussed rebounding woes will crop up but perhaps not so much against the Lakers. With Bynum and Lopez in the paint our wings can crash the boards knowing Gasol will often be playing out near the perimeter. Of course Odom also ate us alive in those long rebound situations.

Anyone else think Dragic’s performance in the WCF motivated the LAL to act early in FA to obtain Steve Blake? Forget the Slovenian sideshow: let’s hope a fierce Dragic-Blake rivalry builds over the regular season. Blake reminds me of a more athletic version of late-90s Steve Kerr. Goran frustrated Farmar/Vujacic and Phil seemed surprised with Dragic’s confidence and playmaking ability. How will Dragic respond against one of the best backup PGs in the NBA?

Amare’s absence may show early in the season but Gentry should find the right rotations after a few months. Stoudemire had statistical success in every series but max players do not fade late in the WCF. He averaged about 40 mins. in Games 5 and 6 but went 23/4 with 2.5 steals and blocks. Nash + Amar’e ≠ Finals, let alone a ring. Let it go: PHX rebuilds in stages and will avoid the albatross scenario. 

Even after losing an All-Star PF, does PHX match up better against the LAL this season?

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2b8b25f
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2g8aaua

DEN
Melo, Billups, Nene and JR for Jameer, Gortat, Crawford, Favors, TWill, Humphries and 2 1Rd Picks

ATL
Marvin, JSmith, Crawford and Bibby for Harris, Nene, JR, Prince, Maxiell and Wilcox

NJN
Harris, Favors, T-Will, Humphries and 2 1Rd Picks for Melo and Bibby

DET
Prince, Maxiell and Wilcox for JSmith and Marvin

ORL
Jameer and Gortat for Billups


DEN

Jameer/Lawson/Johnson
TWill/Crawford/Afflalo
Harrington
KMart/Favors/Maxiell
Gortat/Birdman

+: Karl thrilled to have floor leader in Jameer; Jameer-Lawson-TWill-Favors-Gortat a nice nucleus; financial flexibility in 2011; Gortat has potential to average double-double
-: 3-4 yrs. away fr. competing unless they find a steal next offseason

ATL

Harris/Teague
JJ/JR
Prince/Evans
Horford/Maxiell/Wilcox/Thomas
Nene/Zaza

+: Prince and Nene offer overall defensive upgrade; move Horford to PF; Harris could flourish as a passer w/this crop of shooters; JJ can dial back the mins.
-: impending SF gap (no money for Prince next summer) but this team appears destined for multiple early playoff exits anyway; honestly sad to see what happened w/JR yet he’s playing in the final yr. of his deal so we’ll assume he’s a chemistry non-factor—he might even embrace ATL and the change

NJN

Bibby/Farmar
Morrow
Melo/Outlaw/Jones
Murphy/Humphries
Lopez/Petro

+: Melo can deliver a championship; Bibby on an ugly contract and increasingly injury-prone but also a fearless shooter, could take pressure off Melo in the 4th
-: EC is so stacked (esp. w/ORL and ATL trades here) that it may take yrs. before they even see the Conf finals

DET

Stuckey/Bynum
Gordon/Rip
Marvin/Daye
JSmith/Jerebko/Villanueva/Wilcox
Wallace/Monroe

+: backcourt is deep, skilled, incredibly versatile; w/legit Rip move this team could surprise in the playoffs
-: when does Villanueva play? probably packaged w/Rip; beyond Rip and Wallace, a squad in need of some veteran leadership; Gordon will have to lose streaky tag to live up to the contract—he’ll be carrying DET on certain nights

ORL

Billups/Duhon
Vince/Reddick
Pietrus
Rashard/Bass
Dwight

+: he isn’t CP3 but tell Billups he can’t lead Dwight and ORL to a title
-: Jameer’s game is just behind a Rose or Rondo now but he might develop into a player like Billups w/time

To keep Horford around the Hawks must avoid another 2nd Rd flop and develop greater mental toughness this season.  JSmith finds a new team if the Hawks receive fair value in any trade. With DEN-Melo all but over the Nuggets can facilitate a JSmith-to-PHO deal.  Assuming a Melo deal happens prior to the season opener, DEN overhauls its roster with this trade.    

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=25lujgp

PHO: JRich and Dudley for JSmith

+: JSmith only 24—JSmith-Lopez will tangle with Bynum-Gasol for yrs. to come
-:  JRich perfectly complements Nash on the offensive end and his clutch scoring will be sorely missed; Dudley only starting to realize how good he can become—unfortunately Clark/picks in place of Dudley probably doesn’t convince DET to bite on this deal

DEN: Billups and Nene for JRich and Prince

+: provides Karl w/hard-working, team-first, high-IQ vets; sets Lawson up for a break-out yr. (Lawson/JRich one of the most athletic backcourt duos out there); JRich/Prince contracts expire in 2011
-: Nene underappreciated; Birdman plays major minutes unless Melo deal brings back a legit C (ie Brook Lopez); will be difficult to convince JRich or Prince to resign in the middle of what looks to be a tumultuous rebuilding yr.
                                                               
ATL: JSmith, Bibby and Zaza for Billups and Nene                                              

+: Hawks now don’t blink in close games against the EC elite; Horford moves over to PF; JJ no longer faces constant pressure to be the playmaker and can dish to Billups in late-game situations
-: no real legit backup C in a physical EC (if Nene logs more minutes watch for injuries or fatigue later in playoffs)—Boozer, Noah, Howard, Garnett and Shaq loom if Hawks advance to 2nd Rd
                                               
DET: Prince for Dudley, Bibby and Zaza

+: much upside to a young core of Stuckey-Bynum-Daye-Dudley-Jerebko-Monroe
-: Bynum wants to start and Bibby may resent significantly reduced minutes—PG and PF/C logjam (Maxiell anyone?) would have to be resolved in a later Rip trade

PHO                                                                                                                                                                      
Nash/Dragic                                                                     
Hill/JChill                                                                             
Hedo/Clark                                                                        
JSmith/Warrick/Lawal                   
Lopez/Frye                                                                        

ATL
Billups/Crawford/Teague
JJ/Evans
Marvin
Horford/Thomas
Nene/Collins

DEN
Lawson/Johnson             
JRich/JR/Afflalo
Prince/Melo
KMart/Harrington
Birdman

DET
Stuckey/Bibby/Bynum
Rip/Gordon/TMac
Daye/Dudley
Villanueva/Jerebko/Wilcox/Maxiell
Zaza/Monroe/Wallace


  __   = likely traded before end of 10-11 season