SB Nation User Blog: nji232

Kerry Wood Says Black Players Got Hate Mail

nji232 — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 01:39:52 -0000

Kerry Wood Says Black Players Got Hate Mail

The story is pretty self explanatory. Dusty, Jacque, and LaTroy got some mail that perhaps other players wouldn't. From Kerry Wood's mouth, not Milton Bradley's.

Our Pitchers Can Hit Better Than Yours

nji232 — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 15:15:03 -0000

Our Pitchers Can Hit Better Than Yours

Mostly thanks to Big Z the Cubs led the NL in wOBA by pitchers this season. This is an interesting study because it talks about how Z adds almost a win a season with his bat.

BA Southern League Top 20

nji232 — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:39:06 -0000

BA Southern League Top 20

Jay Jackson checks in at 11, which is great news because this league has a lot of big name prospects.

Which play by play guy talks the most?

nji232 — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:15:11 -0000

Which play by play guy talks the most?

Anybody who has heard a Cardinals broadcast will appreciate this finding. The described speech occurs about three times a game.

Len ranks in the lower half right above Hawk.

Aramis Ramirez Strange Home/Road Splits

nji232 — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 01:49:58 -0000

Originally posted at my personal site.

As the Cubs get ready to go out on the road this week I want to examine one of the stranger statistical trends I've ever seen. See three years ago Aramis Ramirez forgot how to hit on the road. Looking at his career numbers there isn't much difference. Aramis has a career home OPS of .863 and an .831 road OPS. Not really that big a difference when it covers a 1400 game sample.

Every season of Aramis' career before 2007 Aramis either had better numbers on the road each season, with the exception of 2004 where he had a .900+ OPS both at home and the road.

Starting in 2007 though Aramis stopped being as good a hitter on the road. It doesn't mean he was Aaron Miles like bad, or even replacement level bad, just not as good. In 2007 he had a 1.046 OPS at home. It fell a whopping .266 to .780 on the road. You can look at that and call it a one season wonder, but then it happened again in 2008. The OPS went from 1.040 at home to .752 on the road. It's happening in 2009 again too. His 1.066 OPS at home is brilliant, but his .812 just isn't quite as good. What the heck is going on here?
The first thing that stuck out to me was the difference in BABIP, his home BABIP in each year are .350, .340, and .414. On the road it drops to .279, .269, and .276. That could certainly be one cause, but over the course of the season he only has about a six or seven hit difference either way. That doesn't explain such a large difference.

Perhaps Wrigley is just a really hitter friendly park and Aramis takes crazy advantage of that. The park factors (100 being neutral, anything over being batter friendly, lower means pitcher friendly) show that Wrigley is around 105. That ranks near the top for friendly home parks for hitters, so there could be something to that. Certainly that helps explain the collective team offensive woes on the road, but why is one player have such a disparity, and why is that disparity something that suddenly started in 2007? The park factors didn't drastically change in 2007, and there weren't any major structural changes that would change the wind (New Yankee Stadium, US Cellular removing rows).

The 2005-6 bleacher reconstruction couldn't possibly be the reason. The wall dimensions remained the same across the whole field, and they added rows to the bleachers, but did that really make a difference to hitters or just ballhawks on the street.

The arrival of Lou Pinella and a new hitting coach Gerald Perry is biggest change between 2006 and 2007 that I can think of. It was also the time of his new contract, and when his hustle was under scrutiny from Cubs fans. My non-statistical side would like to say that Ramirez is hustling harder in front of the home fans and trying harder. The statistical side of me says that makes no sense at all. If hitting a baseball was as simple as trying harder everybody would be great at it.

Something strange is going on here, I can't explain it. Can anybody else?

Do the Cubs have what it takes to win the World Series?

nji232 — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 13:50:42 -0000

Like all of us here I want nothing more than to see the Cubs win the World Series this year. While I had my doubts about us making the playoffs, I don't have them as much now as long as the team gets healthy. Many people say "just get in and then anything could happen" this logic started to really take off after the 2006 Cardinals limped into the playoffs with 83 wins and somehow won the World Series.

I think the "just get in" philopsophy is a bit flawed and that one outlier (2006 STL) has made us people think that any flawed team could win it all if they just make it. So I wanted to see two things- does the team that wins it all each year follow a sort of formula or pattern, and just how many times does an underdog go on to win it all.

I started from the beginning of the Wild Card era (1995) and went all the way up to this past season.

1995 Atlanta Braves- The Braveswon 90 games in the strike shortened 1995 season, second in all of baseball behind Cleveland who won 100 games. The Braves had most of their success with a lights out pitching staff that included Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. Their closer that season was Mark Wohlers who was having a sensational year closing out games.

Tom Glavinewas their WS MVP with a 1.29 WS ERA and 5 earned runs allowed in 4 postseason starts. Their star hitter for the season, Ryan Klesko, hit 3 homers in the WS and hit .316 in the playoffs despite not getting a hit in the LCS.

1996 New York Yankees- The Yankeeswon 92 games in 1996 and beat the defending champion Braves in the World Series. The Yankees were pretty average statistically during the season, getting a boost from the return of David Cone. The bullpen was the main strength of this team, closer John Wetteland was pretty good, but he had help from some hot shot set up man named Mariano Rivera.

Wetteland won the WS MVP in a pitching dominated series.

1997 Florida Marlins- Another 92 win team, this time the Wild Card entrant, the Marlins were led by a dynamic pitching duo of Kevin Brown and young gun Livan Hernandez. Hitters like Mosies Alou and Gary Sheffield led an offense full of future big names.

Hernandez won the WS MVP (There's a pattern starting to develop here) with a 4-0 postseason record (though he didn't have a great World Series with a 5.27 ERA).

1998 New York Yankees- This is the outlier to match the 2006 St. Louis outlier. The Yankees won 114 games in 1998 and breezed through the playoffs. This team had great starting pitching, a great offense, and Mariano Rivera. Nothing can be gained from look at this postseason

1999 New York Yankees- Just another great hitting, great pitching, great bullpen Yankee team. This team faced little trouble in the postseason and did so despite having nine games played by a certain guess hitting hack. I would be more impressed by these Yankees teams if their roster didn't read like a copy of the Mitchell report.

Mariano won the MVP, again I don't know how much we can take from these Yankees teams other than to say they were just that good.

2000 New York Yankees- This version of the Yankees machine rode Roger Clemensand Andy Pettite to glory. Along with Rivera closing out games and Derek Jeterbeing Mr. Clutch. Jeter won the MVP.

I'll stop here for a moment because I think this is a turning point of sorts. From the end of the strike to 2000 the Braves, Indians, and Yankees sort of ruled baseball. Typical Marlins sneaking in and winning one. I would have started the analysis at 2001, but I thought it was important to show that a top to bottom solid pitching staff and mediocre offense was able to attain postseason success. Right now the "formula" seems like ride two or three great starting pitchers, have a lights out closer, and score just enough runs to win. After 2000 is when it gets interesting.

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks- This postseason run is all Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. This is also the only World Series team that this decade that didn't have a dominating closer (until Johnson took care of that in game 7). Luis Gonzalez got some big hits, and was the best hitter throughout the postseason, but the D-Backs offense (with the exception of a 15 run game 6) really didn't go very much the entire postseason.

2002 Anaheim Angels- The Angels may have been the wild card team this season, but they won 99 games so they were obviously a really good team. They had solid starting pitching, but their postseason boost came from having the best 1-2 end of game punch since the 1996 Yankees. Troy Percival and some guy named K-Rod who threw in 5 games during the regular season (Andrew Cashner anyone?). It also helped that they clubbed the living daylights out of teams thanks to Adam Kennedy and Troy Glaus.

This Angels team actually had pretty mediocre starting pitching over the course of the playoffs, but they scored so many runs that combined with those two guys at the end of the game it didn't matter.

2003 Florida Marlins- Also known as the Josh Beckett/Miguel Cabrerapostseason. The Marlins also had a pretty damn good closer in Ugueth Urbina. We all know how they made it to the World Series, and in the series itself they didn't hit very much, but Beckett was so good, and Urbina was able to close out games that they didn't need many runs.

Now the Marlins were the Wild Card team, but their 91 wins were more than the Cubs, and the fact that Beckett was so freaking good made their run less random.

2004 Boston Red Sox- The Red Soxwere the Wild Card team, but they won 98 games that season so, again, we aren't talking about a mediocre baseball team. This is another story that we all know. The Red Sox made it through this postseason because of a great offense and a lights out closer Keith Foulke.

2005 Chicago White Sox- The Sox won 99 games this season, and rode the greatest starting pitching staff performance of all time to a World title. They also had Bobby Jenksto finish out the postseason games. Their offense wasn't exactly on fire during the postseason, but as is the pattern of these good pitching teams, it did just enough. Remeber in that World Series they had a couple of walk off homers and a 14 inning game.

2006 St. Louis Cardinals- The team that will forever give mediocre teams hope that really isn't there. Simply put the only thing his team had going for it was Albert Pujols and he hit .200 in the World Series. A hot hand in Jeff Weaver and a young closer named Adam Wainwright were key to St. Louis shocking the world. Even in the extreme case of mediocrity coming through to win, they still had a dominating closer and Chris Carpenter's great starting pitching.

2007 Boston Red Sox- This version of the Red Sox reminded me of those old Yankee teams a bit. Great everything. They could hit, had the starting pitching, and Papelbon was dancing his way through the ninth inning. Of course having Josh Beckett in the postseason never hurts, and if you haven't noticed yet, a great ninth inning guy is at a premium here.

2008 Philadelphia Phillies- Cole Hamels and Brad Lidgewere the stars here, along with a pretty good offense. Now obviously this wasn't the best regular season team in the NL, but they had 92 wins and arguably a more "post season built" roster (more on that in a moment).

Once again ending the game with a dominating guy, and having a lights out starter for 2-3 games in a series prove too much to stop.

So what did I gather from all of that? There are three ways teams have won a World Series since the Wild Card started. On fire starting pitching from one or two guys, a game over closer, and a mashing offense. Usually 2 of the 3 are needed to win. There have been teams with all 3 (Yankees 1998-2000; Boston 2007) but never a team with just one. Even the 2001 Diamondbacks needed Randy Johnson to play closer in order to win game 7. The question is now- Do the Cubs have right now, or have the capability to get in October, two of these things.

Our starting pitching is deep, but is there a guy capable of dominating a series? Rich Hardencould be that guy, but he isn't capable of pitching long enough to fill that role. Dempster doesn't have good enough stuff and as sad as it might be to say, neither does Ted. That means its on the shoulders of Big Z to dominate, he has the stuff and the ablility, but its all about him getting his head on straight.

Our bullpen is lacking that lights out guy. Teams have shown (1996 Yankees, 2002 Angels) that starting pitching doesn't have to be great if you can make the game 7 innings long. Basically Carlos Marmolbecomes the wild card or all wild cards here. Him finding the strikezone is the key to the Cubs filling this part of a World Series puzzle, if he doesn't find a way to throw strikes, we might as well forget filling this part. Gregg is a guy, and not a guy that is going to set the postseason on fire. Guzman is good, but by October his arm will be fried. Perhaps Andrew Cashner can come up and be a K-Rod type guy. Still Carlos Marmol's command may in fact hold the Cubs World Series hopes.

The third possible key is a mashing offense. Really only the 2002 Angels used this instead of a dominating starting pitcher. Still offense is the Cubs issue this season and has been the past two postseasons. Without runs scored, there won't be any wins. Obviously the Cubs have good hitters, and these teams tended to lean on one or two guys to carry them. Soriano, Lee, and Rami are all capable of doing that. Its simply a matter of them getting the job done.

So hypothetically the Cubs could have all three things working for them, Carlos Marmol is the most important factor, because without him dominating out of the bullpen this whole discussion is kind of pointless. It comes down to if Big Z can step up, if Marmol can get it together, if Soriano or Rami can get hot. There may seem to be a randomness to the playoffs, but with the exception of the 2006 Cardinals, hindsight shows that the winners were all pretty predictable. Look for a team that has a lights out ace, a lights out closer, and just enough offense. Then you will find your World Champion.

It's our fault the Peavy Deal didn't happen

nji232 — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 19:12:04 -0000

And while nothing excites fans like a blockbuster deal, GMs say the rumor mill has been responsible for killing deals. Trade talks become public in their initial stages, which leads to fan discussion and debates. And if the reaction becomes negative, teams may opt to back out.

Kevin Towers, general manager of the San Diego Padres, is convinced reports involving ace Jake Peavy going to the Chicago Cubs last winter forced the trade to dissolve.

"It became so public, so counterproductive to [Cubs GM] Jim Hendry and I," Towers says, "the deal didn't get done. There was too much public knowledge, and so many players being mentioned, it got out of hand. I really sensed we were close to a deal, but once it got out in the open, Jim said he was pulling the plug. I don't blame him."

Said Hendry: "It certainly didn't help. I'd leave Kevin's room and the same names we talked about were on the Internet two hours later. It certainly puts a damper on a lot of things. All of us would prefer the days when deals would be announced (at a news conference). But those days are over. The stuff that gets out there now drives all of us crazy."

This from an article in the USAToday about trade rumors.

My reaction to this is that Hendry needs to embrace this new age, hopefully he didn't call off a deal simply because people on the internet talked about it. Also Kevin Towers was the one talking to the press every day about the talks, so for him to say it got out of hand is a bit dumb IMO.

The internet isn't going to go anywhere, and all GMs need to realize that they aren't going to walk up to a podium and break a trade anymore.

Link

A Thank You to Andres Blanco

nji232 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 04:23:53 -0000

Andres Blanco will probably never be confused with a great offensive force, or even somebody who can be a full-time major league starter, but I feel that his play recently warrants some special mention.

Andres came in without much notice, and has been filling in at short and second. He immediately became our best defensive option at both positions. Since Lou has a strange love with Ryan Theriot only playing short, Blanco has mostly gotten playing time at second.

Needless to say he has been awesome at defense there. Making tough plays look routine, and impossible plays very possible. (I may be going a bit overboard) He ended the game today with a nice play, and he eliminated any concern with second base being a defensive problem. To had onto that he has gotten a couple clutch hits and is the best bunter on the team. Even if he won't ever light the world on fire with his bat, he has convinced Lou to play him almost everyday which puts Aaron Miles one step closer to the DFA line.

Thank you Andres, and keep up the good work. WIth each great play on defense and the occasional hit you can be the one who gets Aaron Miles off this baseball team for good.

Heyman Pedro List

nji232 — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:38:05 -0000

Heyman Pedro List

SI writer Jon Heyman has the Cubs as his favorite to sign Pedro. His tweet is bolded

revised pedro pursuer list: 1. cubs. 2. #angels. 3. dodgers. 4. rays. 5. ny teams. LAA worried about lackey, i hear

Aramis Making Progress

nji232 — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:50:06 -0000

Aramis Making Progress

Wittenmeyer talks about some good Aramis news. Going to get his bat out this week.