Who should be the Interim Closer?

njmetfan12 — Sun, 24 May 2009 06:54:11 -0000

With Francisco Rodriguez suffering from back spasms, the Mets are forced to confront the harsh reality that they could be forced, for the time being, to utilize a new closer. Based on Jerry Manuel's past decisions, it wouldn't be too surprising if Jerry found a "gangsta" reliever ~~while watching video of a High School Game~~ in AA who he "liked," but for the time being, let's examine the two most likely candidates to fill the closer role.

The first candidate, Bobby Parnell, is a flame-throwing 24 year old right-hander, whose spot on the roster was by no means assured coming into training camp. So far this year Parnell has excelled with a 1.86 ERA, despite a BABIP of .347. His competition will be the veteran J.J Putz who only two years ago was in the midst of a dominant season. With that being said, let’s take a look at what the two pitchers have in common, and what they can be expected to bring to the table.

via blog.nj.com

PARNELL: ADVANTAGES

Despite statistical anomalies, Parnell is having a great year: so far on this season, Parnell’s IFH% (Infield Hit Percentage) is a mind-blowing 27.3. Sadly, that’s not a typo: Twenty seven percent of the ground balls Parnell has induced on the year have resulted in hits. Perhaps it can be argued that Parnell is simply a horrible fielder, but this seems like an outlier.
Parnell’s stuff appears to deceive hitters: So far, Parnell’s Z-swing % (Z-Swing% - Percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone) is only 66 percent, meaning that 1/3 of the swings taken against Parnell are on pitches out of the strike zone, which is second amongst Mets relievers, behind K-Rod.

PARNELL: DISADVANTAGES

Despite being a Fly Ball Pitcher, Parnell has yet to give up a home run. This would seem to be an anomaly, as Parnell induces fly balls 40 percent of the time. While a large number of the fly balls (30%) end up as infield flies, this still leaves nearly a quarter of the balls put in play against Parnell as fly balls to the outfield. Statistics and probability dictate that some of those balls will eventually find their way out of the park.
Parnell’s secondary pitches have been largely ineffective- According to Fangraphs, Parnell has been throwing his fastball a whopping 88 percent of the time, which is a significant increase from the 75 percent of the time he threw his fastball last year. In addition, his slider and changeup are a combined -8 runs BELOW average over the course of a hundred pitches. In essence, Parnell is almost completely dependent on his fastball, which could hamper anyone, but especially a closer.

If Jerry Manuel was looking solely for experience, there is no question he would turn to J.J Putz. In fact, it has been hinted that a contributing factor to Putz’s militant mediocrity this year has been his lack of "aggression." Since Fangraphs has not yet constructed a tool to measure adrenaline/pitch, we’ll have to confine ourselves to his stats.

via d.yimg.com

PUTZ: ADVANTAGES

A SUPERIOR ARSENAL OF PITCHES: So far this year, Putz has been throwing his splitter and slider with devastating results, as they’ve combined to be +13 runs ABOVE average over the course of one hundred pitches. Of course, as we’ll get to later, these pitches have had to be better because his fastball has been subpar.
EXPERIENCE- While some members of the Amazin Avenue community are quick to mock certain "intangibles," it is clear that Manuel puts some stock into them, and Putz certainly has the experience you want in a closer. As a once-dominant closer on the Mariners, Putz will likely be familiar with every new scenario a closer could face.

PUTZ: DISADVANTAGES

A SIGNIFICANT DROPOFF IN EVERY MAJOR STATISTICAL CATEGORY: On the year, Putz has lowered his Strikeout percentage, swinging strike percentage, and Swinging AND Looking strike percentage. The only areas where Putz has improved are in the largely luck-based categories of Home Run/Fly Ball percentage and Infield Fly percentage, and BABIP. Ouch
PUTZ HAS ALSO LOST VELOCITY FROM LAST YEAR- Over the last year, Putz’s average fastball has gone down from around 95 miles an hour to around 93. Although his velocity was up tonight in a save situation, which could lend some credibility to the argument that Putz simply needs "aggression," the three consecutive hard hit balls would seem to indicate a more troubling trend.

So, What do you think?

Poll

So, who should be closing games while we wait for K'Rod's return

Bobby Parnell

9 votes

J.J Putz

26 votes

Closer by Committee (Let the situation dictate)

9 votes

Ramon Martinez

11 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

Some way too early praise of Daniel Murphy

njmetfan12 — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 22:04:01 -0000

Riding the wave of euphoria that accompanies an opening day win, I’d like to take a few minutes to talk about Daniel Murphy’s performance today and the reasons that I’m so excited to see him hitting in the two spot for the majority of the season. Is this gushing analysis putting far too much stock into one good game? Of course. Is it premature to assume that he will play at such a high level for the rest of the season? Absolutely. Despite these facts, I’d like to take a look at his at-bats today and the reasons I’m looking forward to watching him play for a full year.

At Bat 1: Murphy found himself in a great spot for a number two hitter: at the plate with one of the fastest men in baseball on first base. After taking a ball, he had the good sense to take the next pitch and to let Reyes utilize his speed and steal second. This was a welcome sight, as I can think of far too many times last year when Luis Castillo would attempt a “protect” swing of Reyes and foul a pitch off, and spoil a great jump. When you have Reyes’s speed, it seems best to leave it alone. On the next pitch, Murphy hit a ground ball to short that resulted in Reyes going to third. Although it’s fair to point out that very few runners would have advanced to third on that play, the fact remains that Murphy did his job and put Wright in a great RBI situation, which Wright almost always converts.

At Bat 2: After taking a ball and a strike, Murphy made good contact and hit a solid line drive to left. Although it didn’t fall, seeing a young hitter go the other way against a very good pitcher is a very good sign.

At Bat 3: After quickly falling behind 0-2, Murphy showed an excellent eye and great tenacity as he fouled off several “pitcher’s” pitches. These “pitcher’s” pitches, when thrown by an ace like Harang, usually result in outs, but Murphy battled until Harang made a mistake, and he capitalized on the mistake with a homerun to right. This was one of the better at bats I’ve seen from a Met in a long time, and I loved the combination of plate discipline and power.

At Bat 4: With the bases loaded and one out, Murphy found himself facing a 1-2 count against a left specialist who threw a few unusual pitches. This had to be a tough spot, but Murphy hung in well and showed the kind of situational hitting you need from the 2 hitter. On the 1-2 pitch Murphy waited on a screwball and hit it hard down the first base line. Joey Votto had to dive to stop the ball and throw Murphy out at first base. Luis Castillo scored what would prove to be the winning run, but it’s important to note that Murphy managed to make solid contact against a lefty specialist’s best pitch on a 1-2 count.

At Bat 5: This was probably Murphy’s weakest at bat, although part of the blame can be placed on the umpire. After the 2-2 pitch was called a ball, the 3-2 pitch that was a few inches farther outside than the previous pitch was called a strike. There’s not much to say about this at bat.

Overall: In addition to providing four very good at bats, Murphy played functional defense. After a year of watching Luis Castillo struggle to live up to the responsibilities of the 2 spot, it was nice to see Murphy do the job so well, even if it was only for a day. Let’s hope it keeps up!