Bumped from FanPosts. This FanPost was originally published on March 9, 2012, but the predictions look good so far this season. I'll have more on Gee tomorrow, too. -- Chris

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Dillon Gee really didn't have a great year last season. His 4.43 ERA was as mediocre as the advanced metrics painted him to be (4.65 FIP, 4.48 SIERA). However, one thing I noticed a while ago was his above average swinging strike rate.

Gee got opposing hitters to swing and miss at 9.1% of his pitches, a rate a tick above the league average of 8.6%. Despite that, his strikeout rate was a measly 16.2%, well below the 18.6% league average. When I noticed this, I decided to compare other pitchers' swinging strike and strikeout rates.* Gee was, unsurprisingly, one of the outliers, along with notable strikeout underachiever Jeremy Hellickson:

* I filtered 2011 starting pitchers with at least 150 IP.

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The injuries just keep coming. This time it's Tim Byrdak, who appears to be out at least through April with a torn meniscus in his left knee that requires surgery. Byrdak, as many of you know, was an effective relief pitcher last season, particularly vs left-handed batters. In fact, he was effective ONLY because of left-handed batters. Check out his splits and how Terry Collins used him after the jump.

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Lucas Duda may not offer much on the bases or in the field, but one thing a lot of people feel confident in is his bat. Something clicked, power-wise, in the upper minors in 2010 and that in conjunction with his already-great strikezone control made him a very intriguing hitter. He struggled in his Major League debut in 2010 but had a fantastic 2011, posting an impressive 136 wRC+ in 347 PA, showing a sweet blend of patience, power, and contact ability. If you add in Duda's 2010 numbers, his career wRC+ drops to 124, but that's still quite good, and his walk, strikeout, and isolated power numbers still grade out better than league average. It's almost common sense that a balanced combination of power, contact, and patience will equate to a nice hitter, but just how good? Using Fangraphs' awesome leaderboard features, we'll compare Duda's apparent skillset to batter seasons since 2000 after the jump.

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Chris Capuano got shelled last night: 4 IP, 8 hits, 6 earned runs. Yeah, it wasn't pretty. This isn't the first time either; hes given up 5 or more earned runs in 7 of his 27 starts, and only once has he gone at least 7 innings in a game in which hes given up 4 or more earned runs. The funny thing about Capuano is that despite all of this, his fielder-independent statistics remain quite solid. His FIP- is 6% below league average (at 106) while his xFIP- is 4% better than league average (at 96). Considering his FIP has always underperformed his xFIP (basically, hes more homer-prone than he should be), I guess you could say hes probably closer to league average or slightly worse rather than a bit above average. But that doesn't really explain the difference between his actual results versus his FIP. 

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Mike Pelfrey, on the surface, looks like a solid mid-rotation starter. Hes boasted a sub-4.40 FIP each of the last three seasons, an FIP under 4 in two of them, all while also tossing at least 180 innings in each year. Pretty solid production. But is this Pelfrey's true skill? What about his consistently mediocre xFIP that sits in the mid-4's range?

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While nothing is official yet, and Baltimore Orioles' GM Andy MacPhail denying reports that a deal with Vladimir Guerrero is close, it still could be fun to see what kind of fit Vlad would be in Baltimore.

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The Mets just signed reliever Blaine Boyer to a minor league deal. I've always been a fan of his, and I so decided to delve into his splits versus left-handed hitters over the last 3 seasons.

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All offseason I've mainly wanted upside over reliability. The main few guys that I really liked, off the top of my head, were Jeff Francis, Brandon Webb, and Brad Penny. All of these names are now gone, leaving us to pick from an even weaker crop of 'starters with upside', like Chris Young and Justin Duchscherer. And while I still leaned towards someone like Young or Duchscherer over a lower-ceiling/more-reliable arm for a bit, I've since changed my stance.

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After hearing this deal went down, my initial reaction was, what the heck is Florida doing? After thinking about it over, and since Marlins fans need something to cheer them up, I actually think I can come up with a decent perspective of this trade from the Marlins' side.

More after the jump.

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Brett Myers: He could be a guy you get cheaper than Lilly and hes having a better year than him too (3.71 FIP vs Lilly's 4.70 FIP). Myers has always had decent stuff but the homeruns have really plagued him despite strong groundball rates; this year however, hes done a terrific job of suppressing them (0.77 HR/9), but should longball problems return, he'd certainly be aided by the spacious Citi Field. He has a mutual option at $8M for next season, which could be a nice bargain should he and the Mets agree to pick it up.

Ted Lilly: While he might not be having the best year peripheral-wise (4.70 FIP), he has a strong recent track record (2007, 2008, 2009) which makes one believe he'll be better in the 2nd half. Another thing of interest about Lilly is that hes a potential Type-A free agent after the season, which means, assuming the Mets offer arbitration, they could end up collecting a pair of draft picks if he signs elsewhere; on the flip-side, if he accepts arbitration (which I suppose is possible), then the Mets would have him back for next season, and that might not be the worst thing in the world, especially if he were to pitch better in the 2nd half of this season.

Ben Sheets: Hes kind of in the same boat as Lilly in that his peripherals haven't been strong (4.75 FIP), except the primary differences are: 1) he probably wouldn't cost as much as Lilly in a trade, and, 2) he won't bring back any draft pick compensation after the season. He might have the best upside of this group, but a return to his vintage form doesn't seem likely.

Kevin Millwood: People probably want to kill this idea with the way hes pitched (and hes on the DL too now, I think), but he'd actually be a decent fit in Citi Field. His 4.33 xFIP suggests hes not pitching as poorly as his ERA (5.77) or FIP (5.03) would indicate; his main issue here is that hes getting killed in that bandbox in Baltimore, and the splits back it up: HR/9 at home - 2.38, HR/9 on road - 0.88; that's quite a difference. A move to Citi Field and getting out of the AL East would do him wonders. He wouldn't cost anything either, as the Orioles would probably happy to get a bag of balls in return for him. Millwood projects as a potential Type-B free agent, though I suppose offering him arbitration after the season might be a bit questionable. Nonetheless, he could be a good pickup for the stretch run, and he'd certainly cost the least of this group.

Jake Westbrook: I originally opposed him, but I've come around to believing he'd be a fine addition. In a nutshell: hes not going to miss many bats but he'll throw strikes and get a lot of groundballs. A move to the NL and Citi Field would definitely be beneficial and probably give a slight boost to his overall peripherals. Westbrook is a free agent after the season but he won't bring back any draft pick compensation as he doesn't project to be a Type-A or B free agent.

John Maine has never had a propensity for getting groundballs. His career groundball-rate is 37.6% and even in the best year of his career, 2007, it was only 37%. So far in 2010, his groundball-rate is even lower: 24.8%, which is dead last in the Majors among starting pitchers (minimum 30 IP).

According to pitch f/x, Maine has rarely used a 2-seam fastball over the past 4 seasons (though bare in mind the 2007 pitch f/x sample sizes aren't much):

Fortunately, John Maine is missing bats right now, as evident to a strong 8.83 K/9. Considering Maine is now throwing his 4-seam fastball at a very high rate, and its certainly not overpowering at 87-90 mph, I would expect the strikeouts to come back down to Earth very soon. Hes walking way too many batters right now, a shade under 5 per 9 innings, but like with the strikeouts, I think that will eventually regress to the norm. Adding the 2-seam fastball to his repertoire would likely give a boost to his very poor groundball rate and give his team more chances to turn the doubleplay to eliminate the base-runners hes putting on.

I don't know what the future holds for Maine, quite honestly. As stated, hes pretty much decided to live and die by his not-so-powering 4-seam fastball, and while its working right now, for how long can it last? When you're walking between 4 and 5 batters per 9 innings and have a groundball rate under 25%, that certainly doesn't appear to be a recipe for much success, even if you are pitching in the expansive confines of Citi Field.

Jerry Manuel is using one of the Mets' worst relief pitchers as his go-to setup man. Oh, Jerry.

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Jerry Manuel is using one of the Mets' worst relief pitchers as his go-to setup man. Oh, Jerry.

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Just yesterday we received news that the the Mets will place reliever Sean Green on the 15-day DL and call-up the left-handed enigma known as Raul Valdes.

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