SB Nation User Blog: nobodyinparticular

Message to Al (website petition)

nobodyinparticular — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:26:17 -0000

I am the last person to condone passing around a website, petition, or any sort of chain email/tweet/facebook/myspace thing. However, I am also tired of the same disappointing feeling I have after the Raiders lose--which has happened a LOT since 2003.

Can you remember what the early 2000s felt like? Can you remember the anticipation we would have leading up to the season? Can you remember the swagger you had as a Raider fan as you sat at work (or walked the school halls) during the week knowing that the Raiders were likely to win? Can you remember the thrill of victory over our hated rivals--the Chiefs, the Chargers, the Broncos, the Jets, the Steelers? How about the sheer ecstasy hearing Greg Papa yell, "TOUCHDOWN RRRRAAAIDDEEERRRRRSSSSS!!!!" a minimum of 3 times a game? Or how about the chest-puffing pride hearing him excitedly announce "After 19 years... The Silver and Black are BACK!" just before the kickoff of the 2003 Super Bowl?

Can you remember all of this? Because, to be honest, all of this is hazy at best for me. There were times where the Raiders would have more than 10 total TDs in 11 quarters; now the Raiders have 10 offensive TDs in 11 whole games. There were games where Rich Gannon carved up defenses for 350+ yards of passing, now we're lucky to get 350 yards in a month. There was a time when the Raiders had the best record for Monday Night Football games; now, as fans, we dread having the Raiders on primetime because we don't want to be embarrassed in front of the entire nation.

I am tired of seeing MY TEAM get pummeled week in and week out. I am sick of seeing the storied Silver and Black trampled under the feet of mouthy commentators after another pitiful performance. And I am FED UP with losing. It's time for a change.

It's time for the Raiders to BE the NFL again. It's time for teams and other fans to hate and respect us once again rather than loathe and pity us. It is time for the glory of the Raiders to be the present AND the past, not just dusty trophies in a glass case. We can't wait another NINETEEN YEARS to return to the Super Bowl; so it's time for Al Davis to CHANGE how he operates this storied franchise.

This is why, for the first time in my life, I am passing around a petition for something and signing it myself. If you go to MessageToAl.com you will be given the opportunity to sign a petition with a number of different demands of Al Davis.

I am doing this only because I believe in the power of the Raider Nation. I know that there are MILLIONS of us out there who are sick and tired of the losing and the humiliation. We are cut to the core that this once proud and storied franchise has been brought low by losing season after losing season. We cannot become the next Browns, Lions or Bungles. It is time for change and I know that you are just as heartbroken by this team as I am. Sign the petition. A mere pebble can start an avalanche. Be the pebble. Start the avalanche that will sweep through Oakland and renew the organization.

I will note that this site also asks you for donations to make a bigger difference. I am not condoning the donation of any money to this site (nor is it my site). All I know is that there are millions of fans who bleed SILVER AND BLACK who can spare 10 seconds to type their name on a petition (or 3 minutes if you want to create a new email account to ensure the safety/spam-free of your current one).

Be the pebble. Start the avalanche. Let's bring change to the Silver and Black.

Here's the link one more time.

MessageToAl.com

Mock MLB offseason: Should A's trade for Reid Brignac?

nobodyinparticular — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:13:34 -0000

Basic premise of this exercise is that you are the GM of the Oakland A's. You are trying to build a successful 2010 club while keeping a bright future in Oakland (or wherever the A's may end up). Obviously there are holes in the Oakland lineup that could be filled for 2010. Not among the least of these is SS (although some like Cliff Pennington there).

If you had a trade offer on the table to receive Reid Brignac while sending Sean Doolittle and Josh Donaldson, would you do the trade?

Let's look at the pieces:

Reid Brignac: He has the ability to fill in at both SS and 3B--two positions that will likely need to be filled at least to start the season. If Pennington continues to produce at SS, he can play at 3B until Brett Wallace is ready. If Brignac performs well in addition to both Wallace and Pennington--well then you have some trade chips. If one of these fails, you end up having insurance

Sean Doolittle: Doolittle came out hitting like gangbusters in the 2008 season--jumping onto the prospect radar as quickly as the ball was jumping off of his bat in Stockton. However, this was Stockton--in the California League--that of the small parks and large HR numbers. As he was promoted to Midland, his numbers dipped and he slumped. In Sacramento in 2009, he started off fairly well for his small amount of pro experience, but his season ended only a month later with a torn patelar ligament. Moving forward, with a quick rebound, he could find himself with a spot in the Oakland lineup in RF or 1B by May or June. However, with Carter an option at 1B and COF as well as Desme, Cunningham and Brown ready anywhere from the start of 2009 to July 2010. Combined with Barton and Wallace as options at 1B, Doolittle could be seen as superfluous.

Josh Donaldson: What can't he do? He has played 3B, C and 1B in the minors so far and there is talk of moving him to 2B. In the Texas League as a 23-year old, Donaldson smacked 37 doubles, just 4 behind uber-prospect Chris Carter's league leading 41. He also posted a season OBP of .379, good for 8th in the league. Although he may not hit a boatload of HRs (only 9 in 455 ABs), he certainly isn't lost at the plate. Scouting reports also say that he has the tools to remain an ump cuddle buddy , the only question is whether or not there is a place for him in Oakland with Kurt Suzuki cheap and performing well there now. With so many 1B prospects (as already established), Wallace in front of him at 3B and Weeks/Cardenas at 2B, there may not be a place for Donaldson in Oakland either.

So the question: Would it be wise to give up 2 fairly solid prospects (in their own rights) who are superfluous, in order to grab an MLB-ready SS who may or may not be needed right now or in the future?

Would you make a counter-offer? (keep in mind the A's and Rays both have pitching depth in the minors so starting pitching likely wouldn't be valuable in a trade to the Rays) Would you rather try to get Brandon Wood from the Angels (who is out of option years with LAA likely to re-sign Figgins)? Or would you not make the deal at all?

(this is intended to create discussion so please leave thoughtful comments)

Poll

Would you take Reid Brignac for Sean Doolittle and Josh Donaldson?

Things I learned from watching the Hawks beat the Blazers

nobodyinparticular — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 08:51:08 -0000

I just got back from my first live NBA game in years. I got to watch the Hawks take down the young Portland Trail Blazers. Knowing the Kings would play the Hawks Wednesday night, I wanted to see what the Kings were up against.

1) Al Horford is a BEAST. This is the biggest one. I have no idea how he does it, but the guy's athleticism and quickness is out of this world for a guy who is 6'10" and 245 lbs. There were times that he moved better than Brandon Roy on the court. He's not incredibly strong, but he played like he could be a 2 guard.

2) Al Horford is a BEAST part 2. I haven't looked at the full box score so I don't actually know what his +/- was, but I saw a huge difference when he was on the court and when he was off the court. Specifically, when he was off the court, Lamarcus Aldridge was doing his own beasting--providing a spark for the Blazers on both sides of the court. However, when Horford was on the court, Aldridge absolutely disappeared. I would not look for Jason Thompson to have his breakout game of the season against Atlanta because I would bet Horford will be guarding him all game.

3) Mike Bibby continues to lose his quickness. This is sad and yet not unexpected considering his age. Bibby was never The Flash, but Bibby is really starting to age. I would think having Tyreke guard Bibby would be a bit of a waste of 'Reke's ability to be honest. Bibby is still very cerebral and the best floor general on the Hawks, but he's certainly not the PG who dropped 6 straight 20-point games against the Lakers in the 2002 playoffs.

4) The Hawks offense looked best when it was running the floor. When the Hawks played a half-court offense, they were slow and ineffective. With Horford's quickness moving down the court, the Hawks were able to get their size down the court before the Blazers and take advantage of Horford almost every time.

All this said, I think the Hawks are a beatable team. The damage down low is going to have to come when Horford is not in the game, but I think we have a team that can hang with Atlanta. I will be interested to see how Hawes and JT play this game.

A's Prospect Dusty Coleman Was Playing Injured

nobodyinparticular — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:37:26 -0000

According to this article (LINK) Dusty Coleman played through the majority of the season with a broken wrist. For those of you needing a little background on Coleman, he was drafted out of Wichita State in the 28th round of the 2008 draft. He was given overslot money and proceeded to hit will in short-season Vancouver. As he started the 2009 season in the very pitcher-friendly Kane County, he put up a wOBA of .413 in April and then .386 in May. From there, his production seriously tailed off with stats so low they would make Yuniesky Betancourt blush.

A move up to high-A Stockton did not help matters. In August, he was shut down to have surgery to fix a broken bone in his wrist. Just recently an article in Argus Leader came out with quotes from Coleman who said that his injury came in May--he had been playing with a broken wrist for the majority of the season.

This news makes me frustrated that it took this long for the A's farm system to find out about an injury and look into it. But this also gives me hope that Coleman might be closer to his performances from the first two months rather than the final 3 months of his season. This may give the A's another legitimate SS prospect coming up the ranks. What do you guys think about this? What are your reactions?

A return to basketball

nobodyinparticular — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 20:22:17 -0000

I'll preface this with saying that I have been a Kings fan for, literally, my entire life. Born in 1987, I remember going to games for $1 (through some Target store promotion) to see Mitch Richmond put on a show and watch the hapless Kings lose time and time again. I remember cheering for Mitch as he displayed impeccable defense and precision 3-point shooting, leaving the games with a hoarse voice after a heartbreaking Kings loss.

Then there was a change in the Kings. Sacramento went out and starting turning over the roster and getting better. And the big shocker--Mitch Richmond traded. And the Chris Webber holdout. Then he comes around and, along with Vlade Divac, he and Jason Williams formed a team that was incredibly fun to watch. As the Kings rose to prominence, you can imagine how much I loved watching them. Then, with the combination of the 2002 heartbreaker losing to the Lakers and the 2003 heartbreaker against the Mavericks, I had to stop watching basketball. This was not because of anything the Kings did or didn't do, but this was because I began to hate the NBA's enforcement of rules. The subjectivity of the calls got me to the point where it was better for my blood pressure just to follow generally through the internet.

This whole time, I have still followed Kings on ESPN and of course always rooted for them to win, but I could not come to a place where I could have a vested interest in a game that I watched. I had to turn that switch off. Now, after a 6 year hiatus, I find myself passionately following the NBA and the Kings once again. I cannot stop myself. Kevin Martin is a guy who I have liked since the Kings drafted him and now the Kings have paired him up with an exciting talent like Tyreke Evans. Oh man, this team has me excited again. The raw ability of Evans and Thompson make me drool and the sweet shooting of Kevin Martin makes me swoon. Couple that with Spencer Hawes offensive ability and I can't help but return to basketball.

I know that the Kings aren't likely to win a lot of games, but this team promises to be an exciting one. It's not the best example, but the prospect of exciting play reminds me of the '98-'99/'99-'00 Kings with a young and exciting Jason Williams coupled with Chris Webber and Vlade Divac. Of course Jason was a different PG than Evans is and those teams actually made the playoffs, but the point is the exciting basketball that these young talents promise to bring.

I for one am excited to see the Kings head into the '10s with the talent they have acquired.

Mark Mulder, Roy Halladay, Trevor Cahill and overcoming BAD rookie seasons

nobodyinparticular — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 00:08:32 -0000

Oh geez, another Trevor Cahill (Mazzaro/Anderson/Ynoa) post. Did that really have to happen? I would say so. This is actually not as much about Trevor Cahill, but it is about the ability of young pitchers to overcome K/BB ratios as bad as Trevor Cahill's this season (1.25).

The general argument when it comes to Trevor Cahill is that his detractors will point to his inability to strike anyone out and his propensity to issue free passes as a reason that he is no more than a #4 starter. Trevor Cahill's supporters will make the rebuttle that he hasn't been using his most effective swing and miss pitch this season and control can be taught. Basically it is the "development argument"--Cahill has the ability to develop into a very good pitcher.

Knowing how highly I thought of Cahill coming into the season, I thought it might be a good idea to look into the likelihood of progression into the future ace/#2 starter most people thought he would develop into coming into the season. Looking at Cahill's season, it is easy to see why he has had such a rough time in the major leagues--those who argue against Cahill are right. He has a very low K/9, a high BB/9 and a subsequently very bad K/BB. Now pitchers have been able to develop one side of the equation or the other, but most successful pitchers enter the league at least somewhat proficient in one of these categories. Either they have very good control (they throw a lot of strikes) and cannot strike anyone out (ala Rick Porcello this year) or they send plenty of batters back to the dugout ok strikes and have a hard time hitting the zone (ala Clayton Kershaw). As these pitchers move foward, there is a slew of evidence that they at least have the opportunity to improve as there is a track record of pitchers who have done the same (Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, etc). But are there pitchers who have had problems in both categories--to the same extent that Cahill has them--who have gone on to be successful starters in Major League Baseball?

This is what I sought to find out. My criteria was this:

1) Pitchers who had a K/BB ratio under 1.30 with more than 100 IP

2) Who later went on to post an above average FIP for 3 years

3) They must not have exceeded 200 IP before their 1.30 K/BB season. We are looking at the ability of players to develop a good K/BB ratio not someone who is trying to bounce back from a bad season (Kenny Rogers, I'm looking at you)

For my purposes, I went searched back only to 1990. However, as I was looking through I found a couple pitchers who fit the bill going back into their careers. (Mike Moore was one of them)

All told, the results were slim. Here's what I found.

1982 Mike Moore (.092 K/BB)--immediately had 3 straight seasons under 3.60 FIP and 3 more out of the next 6 seasons above average--all told 6 out of his next 9 seasons were above average

Jose Mesa--I'm not even going to put down the years and K/BB ratios. From 1987-1992 (4 seasons), he was downright awful. However, in 1993, he began to put it together and put a string of 4 very good seasons together. He scattered a couple more very good seasons in over the rest of his career, but still came out with a career FIP of 4.31.

1991 Darryl Kile (1.19 K/BB)--Actually posted a solid 3.69 ERA in his rookie year, but had a FIP of 4.66 to back it up. Went on to post very good FIPs in 5 of the next 6 years. Wasn't quite the same after his year-29 season and ended up with a 4.24 career FIP. Solid and certainly over those 6 years he was a #3 starter.

1993 Tim Wakefield (0.79 K/BB)--Walked a LOT and Ked almost no one in his second season in the league. Went on to learn how to strikeout more and brought his BBs a little more under control scattering a few above average seasons throughout a very long career. Career FIP of 4.72 suggests that he is no more than a 4th starter.

1999 Roy Halladay (1.04 K/BB)--Now here is the first really interesting one. The others were pitchers who had moderate success but no real aces among the bunch. This is the first one to have prolonged success. After his rookie campaign (again with a a very good ERA that did not show the tale of the terrible FIP), Halladay's ERA combusted and he was sent down the minors to rework his mechanics. He came back to the majors and hasn't looked back since. His career FIP is 3.47--a true ace.

2000 Mark Mulder (1.28 K/BB)--Here is another interesting one. Mark Mulder came up from the minors in a hurry and had a very bad season his rookie year. After this, however, Mulder showed true ace potential putting up three straight seasons among the top pitchers in FIP. Injuries derailed his career and he was never same after 2003. All things equal, after his rookie season Mulder was an ace almost to the level of Halladay when he was healthy.

Apart from this handful of outliers, most other pitchers who put up K/BB ratios in the realm of Trevor Cahill faded into oblivion. The reason that I point out Mark Mulder is because so many people from the Athletics organization continue to point to Mark Mulder as a reason for keeping the A's rookies in the major leagues while they were struggling. Billy Beane specifically pointed to Mark Mulder as a guy who learned by taking some shots and then grew as a result of it. When Beane pointed to Mulder as a model, I didn't realize quite how closely Cahill's performance resembled Mulder's. For everyone's sake, Cahill had better hope that Beane was right to compare him to Mark Mulder because there are very few young pitchers who have struggled to the extent that Cahill has and gone on to be successful.

I would take it further and say that if Cahill's career follows the path of Moore, Mesa or Wakefield, he would rightly be considered a bust--or at least a disappointment. Coming into the league, Cahill was expected to be a frontline starter. Anything less than Mulder's performance (minus injury) would seem to be failure.

Better yet, Beane should hope that Cahill defies all odds and reaches for the furthest outlier--Roy Halladay. The odds are certainly against him, but Cahill has the track record and minor league scouting report to back it up.

If Cahill doesn't become the next outlier then he can expect to fade into oblivion along with Jimmy Anderson, Kirk Rueter, Ken Hill and Nate Cornejo.