So, our boys in crimson and gold were weighed, measured, and have been found wanting. This was a particularly frustrating game to watch for many reasons which will be outlined in super angry categorized form:

Offense: On our side of the field, awesome. Varied play calling, quick routes, moved Alex Smith around beautifully, got the ball into VD's hands. On their side of the field, atrocious. So coach, the field is shortened and Pittsburgh has eight men in the box, what now? Apparently the answer is to run right at the best defensive tackle in football and force yourself into third and long. Why not roll Smith out and let him run or get it to the Disease in the flat, or run a couple quick slants or curls for 5-7 yards. It's ok to do something other than sideline out patterns and trap plays behind Larry Allen. It's as if the red zone playbook is three pages long.
   Also, if you're lined up with 1 WR, 2 TEs, a FB, and Gore, odds are your running off tackle. So when Pittsburgh (or Arizona or St. Louis for that matter) sees that and stacks 8 in the box, isn't there a check down or hot route that can be audibled into? Can we buy Alex Smith a wristband or something? If Smith, Pitt, and everyone watching at home knows this run is going nowhere, then why not change the effing play? I dont care if Smith is the youngest QB in football or if hes had 18 different offensive coordinators, he should be able see that defense and switch out by now.

Officials: Let me say for the record that the 49ers were outplayed this Sunday. They didn't deserve to win this game. That being said, this was one of the worst officiated games I've ever seen. Not only were there a flurry of terrible calls (or non-calls), but they were all of the game changing variety. First, there was the terrible holding call on Nate Clements on 2nd and long which led to the only meaningful TD drive of the game for Pittsburgh. I dont see how you can make that ticky tac of a call in that situation and give a team an automatic 1st down. (BTW, with how frequently it's called and its relative severity, why is that an automatic 1st down?) Second, the horrible call on the VD catch/fumble/int/incomplete pass. That was tuck rule bad. VD caught the ball, brought it in, took a step, was hit, hit the ground, rolled over, and then the ball came out without ever touching the ground. That's either a complete pass or an INT. How in god's name can you look at the play from umpteen thousand angles and get the call that horribly wrong. Would have been 1st and goal. A TD and 2pt convo puts us within three with a quarter to play. Finally, on the insuing drive Big Ben was nearly sacked and threw the ball away towards no one in particular while still clearly within the pocket. How blantant does the foul have to be for intentional grounding to be called? So rather than 10 yds and loss of down, its just incomplete which allows Pitt to stay in FG range and erase the 3 points we had just made up.(Which could easily have been six had the officials not screwed up so royally on the previous review.)

Defense:  On the whole, the defense did another stellar job today. The coverage was tight, the pass rush was decent, and the play calling was again excellent. However two things jumped out at me. Watching Casey Hampton on the other side of the ball made me realize just how dire our situation is at NT. Several of the runs that Parker broke were nearly stuffed in the backfield but for missed tackles by Franklin and/or Sopoaga. Not to mention the 3 or 4 near sacks that Roethlisberger managed to escape from. If I had a nickle for every time I turned to my buddy and said, "I bet Hampton makes that play," I'd be eating dinner for free tonight. My other observation goes more towards coaching than personnel. The guy that really killed us today wasn't Parker or Roethlisberger, it was Heath Miller. By the middle of the second quarter, it was obvious that Navies simply couldn't keep up with him. The whole time I was waiting to see Brandon Moore subbed in on passing downs to account for him and it never happened.

Finally I will end this rant with a question, did Ashley Lelie run over Mike Nolan's dog or something?

Like many A's fans, I'm already looking toward next season and am curious what is to be done about the current state of our team. Before Grover calls the police on me, let me state that this diary is purely speculative and will likely get very unrealistic, very quickly. Barring any further trades, our roster going into the offseason looks like this:

C K. Suzuki
1B D. Barton
2B M. Ellis
3B E. Chavez
SS B. Crosby
LF T. Buck
CF M. Kotsay
RF N. Swisher
DH J. Cust

SP D. Haren, R. Harden, J. Blanton, C. Gaudin, E. Loaiza

RP H. Street, J. Ducsherer, S. Casilla, A. Embree, K. Calero, L. Dinardo

Bench: D. Johnson, C. Snelling, C. Denorfia, J. Brown, M. Scutaro

This asumes that the option on Ellis is picked up and no further trades are made.

Continue reading this post »

Another AN Fantasy League has arrived.  It is a standard 5x5 rotisserie league with a few exceptions. Gone are RBI's and Wins. Here to stay are OBP, Slugging, and Innings Pitched. I want to bring to the table what is truely of value in today's MLB. I also have changed the outfield layout from 3 OF's to 2 OF's and a CF to create more realistic teams. (eg. no Manny, Sheffield, Floyd outfields). I would also request that those signing up use their AN screen name as their team name so that we can all know who's who and get to know each other as the season progresses. (I'd like to even get together at a game this year if possible.) I love the AN community and would like to extend it beyond my keyboard and AN day.  This is a 12 team league, so get in while you can.

League ID: 34458
Password: huston20

Welcome to my first crack at the DLD. I missed fanfest because of work, am nursing a serious hangover and need to talk baseball.

In the latest at Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan isn't as enthused as the rest of us about the Thomas signing.

"I don't think this is a bad signing by the A's, even though it does exacerbate a crowded situation on the corners. Thomas isn't going to hurt them: he'll either be contributing or injured, and the downside of the latter is that they have the same team that already looked like the favorite in the AL West. I just don't think he's going to be healthy enough to come to the plate more than 300 times, and a figure closer to 200 is likely, and even .250/.400/.550 in 200 PAs is only going to do so much coming from a DH with negative baserunning value."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4729

It looks like Piazza is heading to the Padres.

http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060129&content_id=1303170&vkey=n ews_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Ken Rosenthal sounds off on the Marte/Crisp deal

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5285906

Help cure my hangover AN! Let the dumping begin...

I can only post the starting lineup due to copywrite laws and such, but here's your 2006 Oakland A's accodring to BP:

Mark Ellis  538 PA  .283/.351/.426  BB/K 47/63  2B 26  HR 12  DEF 2B+7  VORP 25.7

Mark Kotsay  622 PA  .277/.332/.414  BB/K 46/61  2B 34  HR 13  DEF CF+2  VORP 18.5

Eric Chavez  647 PA  .271/.354/.479  BB/K 72/106  2B 32  HR 27  DEF 3B+6  VORP 35.4

Frank Thomas  353 PA  .237/.342/.497  BB/K 46/80  2B 13  HR 22  DEF DH  VORP 15.8

Milton Bradley  490 PA  .279/.355/.447  BB/K 49/75  2B 25  HR 15  DEF CF+1  VORP 23.8

Bobby Crosby  549 PA  .269/.346/.453  BB/K 54/98  2B 29  HR 18  DEF SS+4  VORP 32.3

Dan Johnson  577 PA  .272/.353/.462  BB/K 62/77  2B 29  HR 21  DEF 1B-1  VORP 20.2

Nick Swisher  538 PA  .252/.347/.455  BB/K 64/105  2B 28  HR 21  DEF RF-3  VORP 15.7

Jason Kendall  612 PA  .270/.333/.338  BB/K 43/41  2B 27  HR 2  DEF C-1  VORP 10.5

A few things jump out at me. Kendall and Swish are projected to enjoy nearly identical seasons to 2005. They are relatively bullish on DJ. A 62/77 BB/K? Wow. I think over 350 PA's Thomas' line will be significantly better than that. I don't think Kendall will be that bad again. (Although they have him hitting 2 home runs!) I also think Kotsay's defense will be better if he's healthier. On the whole, this definitely weighs the most recent season very heavily. I'm a little more optimistic.  I'll post the starting rotation soon.

 Lately, I have read some intriguing (sp?) possibilities mentioned that dont involve signing Konerko or Giles, utterly fleecing another team or trading away a certain left handed starter. (Thank you Grover.) These are all decent ideas. However, I'd like to expand on Grover's list of candidates by adding a few that could be had for an NRI or a bag of balls. I want to know what minor league free agents, previously unknowns, or "washed up veterans" will be the out of nowhere contributors next year and how these players could be aquired by our Oakland A's. A few thoughts:

Calvin Pickering 1B/DH

For me, the "Free Calvin Pickering" movement is still alive and well. This year he won the starting DH job in KC over Grimace (aka Ken Harvey), proceded to stink up the joint over the season's first month and was subsequently sent down to AAA. Despite putting up a .272/.384/.528 line in Omaha the Royals never gave him another call up and eventually DFA'd him. In 2004 he hit a ridiculous .314/.451/.712 with 35 HR's in only 299 AB's! He then was the Royals best hitter down the stretch putting up a respectable line of .246/.338/.500 in 122 AB's. He could be had for the price of a plane ticket to Arizona and has the potential to be the next Gerronimo Berroa. Even if he doesn't pan out, what have you lost? Nothing. He is the ultimate low risk-high reward player.

Matt Stairs OF/1B/DH

 Another Royals castoff, Stairs would make make a great DH platoon partner for Bobby Kielty. He can still hit righties, is versatile enough to play the field onece in a while, and is an Oakland A's fan favorite. Again, a low risk-medium reward proposition for the league minimum.

Russell Branyan 3B/1B/DH

Say hello to the perfect righty masher. Platooned with Wes Helms at third this year, Branyan hit .257/.380/.490 in 202 Ab's. He's a pure "three true outcomes" hitter and could be had for next to nothing in a trade with the possibility of Bill Hall moving to third to accomodate J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart on his way up.

Josh Willingham C?

Another member of the "Free Insert Blocked Slugger Here" movement. The Marlins appear to have given up on him ever playing a position well enough to stay in the NL, given his combined 48 ML at-bats over the last two years. This, however, is a potential DH that had a .407 OBP in his brief call up and hit .324/.455/.676 in 219 AAA at-bats in '05. It's time Billy Beane liberated him.

Marcus Thames OF/DH

Another Calvin Pickering/Matt Stairs clone who made it to the majors late but could still have a short but promising career. In 2004, after hitting .329/.410/.735! in AAA, he was called up by Detroit and hit .255/.326/.509. He never caught fire this year, hitting only .196/.263/.411. But, he continued to mash AAA by hitting .340/.427/.679. He is more of a lefty masher than Pickering or Stairs and as such was misused by Detroit this year, so he could have more of a Bubba Trammell career path. Even then, a DH platoon of him and Pickering could be the second coming of Mark McGwire for $600k if everything breaks right.
 

A lot has been made of Kirk Saarloos' breakout season this year. However, the numbers show that his low 4.17 ERA may have been a fluke. Saarloos had an extremely low K/9 (2.99) and an equally unimpressive WHIP (1.40). On the flip side, he allowed an extremely low 11 HR's in 160 innings and had a GB/FB ratio of 2.51. He benefitted greatly from a lack of HR's allowed and an excellent infield defense behind him. He was essentially Derek Lowe Lite.

Now, if you look at the career path of extreme sinkerballers with low K-rates such as Lowe or Jake Westbrook, you will see that their seasons vary wildly from year to year. This is a result of their being unable to achieve consistent results due to the sheer number of balls they allow in play. Kirk just flat out doesn't miss enough bats to remain as effective as he has been.

Kirk is due to regress some in 2006, so I say trade him while he's got value. It's time to see what kind of slag we can get for him.  It's time to sell high. Any team would be interested in an effective, league minimum paid pitcher like Los Kirk when the likes of Kris Benson and Russ Ortiz are being paid upwards of $8 mil per.

The Phillies, Red Sox, D-Backs, etc all have a surplus of hitters and need CHEAP pitching. For those of you who have been dreaming of seeing Connor Jackson wearing Green and Gold, Kirk may be the trading chip that makes that a reality.

Saarloos may return to the same form in '06, or he may turn into Nate Cornejo circa 2003. My guess is he'll be somewhere in the middle, but I'd rather let another team pay to find out while we take a hitter for our trouble.

Today, Rany Jazayerli of BP posted an article on Bobby Abreu declaring him a future HOFer and the most underrated player in baseball.  This prompted me to think of who else belongs in that category:

1.  Bobby Abreu OF Philadelphia Phillies

Not to seem like a biter, but I've got to defer to BP on this one.  Behold the heir to the title of "Best Player the Casual Fan Has Never Heard Of" recently relinquished by Magglio Ordonez.  Abreu has posted career averages at the classic .300/.400/.500 clip along with 30+ steals and 20+ home runs over the last 7 seasons.  He is the premier power/speed threat in baseball next to Carlos Beltran.  And he has made one all-star team.  The same number as Lance Carter and Ben Grieve.

2.  Jake Peavy SP San Diego Padres

$14.5 million over 4 years.  The lowest ERA in the NL last year.  Great periferals in front of a shoddy defense.  A true 25 year old staff ace.  And it only took that much to sign him.  Mr. Harden, Billy is on line one.

3.  Adam Dunn OF Cincinnati Reds

The towering Paul Bunyan clone that gets no love because scouts say he strikes out to much.  Never mind that he gets on base at a .390 clip and hits 40+ bombs.  Strikeouts are a biproduct of power.  Mickey Mantle used to complain about how much he struck out, but he also said that if he hit like Pete Rose he would wear a dress.  The fact that Cincy is still stringing him along on 1-yr deals shows the idiocy of that organization.

4.  Calvin Pickering DH Kansas City Royals

Would someone please stop Ken Harvey!  Here we have what Jack Cust aspires to be.  What more does a man have to do to get a job?  He utterly destroyed AAA posting a line of .315/.451/.712 and hitting 35 home runs in just 299 at bats!  He then proceded to be the Royals best hitter after his promotion.  If he's not in the Royals opening day lineup, Allan Baird should be fired for incompetance.

Who else did I miss?  What does AN think?  Who is the most underrated player in baseball?  And how long will it be before teams realize their folly or Billy does it for them?      

For those of you who missed out on the other AN leagues that have been formed, I have started a new Roto league on Yahoo.  It's a standard 5x5 categories leage with one exception.  It uses 2 OF and a CF instead of 3 OF.  I've always been impressed with the collective knowledge of AN and I want to see it in action.  The league id is 170046.  The password is huddy.  I hope to hear from you.

Whovever posts as Mitche65, your AN shirts were accidently shipped to me.  I'm not sure how to handle it.  Blez, should I E-mail astropitch or just get Mitche65's address from him and send them to him?  Please help me out.  

If you need to contact me my email is nothinlikethetown@yahoo.com.  

.................................................................................................... ................................................  

Today, Baseball Prospectus released its top 50 Prospects list.  For the second consecutive year, there is an Oakland A in the top 10.  (Crosby in '04.)  

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3773

#9 Daric Barton
#26 Nick Swisher
#29 Dan Meyer
#42 Joe Blanton

Omar Quintanilla and Huston Street also warranted honorable mentions.  Unfortunately, the commentary is only in the BP 2005 Annual.  

I found this list a little strange.  Look at how far down supposed impact prospects like Rickie Weeks and Adam Miller are.  On the whole I definitely agree with it though.

The collective minds at Baseball Prospectus talked about the possible catchers to be included in their Top 50 Prospects in today's Prospectus Roundtable.  Daric Barton was the first name to come up.  

Link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3734

(requires subscription)

Some exerpts:

"His WARP (and EqA) are a little bit funky, as there aren't too many players who hit like this at age 18.  That, of course, is exactly why Barton is as good a prospect as he is.  He probably wont catch in the majors, but I'm not sure how much that matters."

"PECOTA likes Barton's bat to the point where, even if we consider him stricly a first baseman, he would probably rank only behind Kotchman and Prince Fielder."

BP seems to be as high on Barton as everyone else, if not more so.

This is a great time to be an A's fan.  We have the makings of a great young nucleus all coming together at once.  This could be like the Yankees of the early 90's.  And to top it all off, a new stadium now no longer seems like such a pipe dream.  I can't wait to see Barton, Meyer, Street, Swish, and Crosby all wearing Green and Gold at the same time.  The thought alone is giving me goosebumps.  This is a very exciting time.

The Oakland Tribune is reporting that the A's have been in contact with Juan Gonzalez's agent recently.

http://www.oaklandtribune.com/Stories/0,1413,82~11680~2586039,00.html

This is probably just B.S. speculation, but maybe he's a possibility after all.  

BA released the A's Top 10 Prospects list today.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/04top10s/athletics.html

1. Nick Swisher
   
2. Javier Herrera
   
3. Joe Blanton
   
4. Dan Johnson
   
5. Huston Street
   
6. Jairo Garcia
   
7. Richie Robnett
   
8. Omar Quintanilla
   
9. Kurt Suzuki
   
10. Nelson Cruz

So much for the whole "BA hates Nick Swisher" thing I keep hearing so much about.  I'm a little surprised about this list.  I had no idea that the scouting community was so high on Herrera.  I knew he was a good prospect, but to put him ahead of Blanton, Street, and Johnson?  Jesus.  I also was shocked to see Quintanilla actually down a few spots from last year after what was a pretty damn good consolidation year in '04.

What does AN think about this list?  Who shoudld be on it?  Who shouldn't be?  Are the "Moneyball guys" finally getting some love?    

In the first sensible move that Sabean has made in recent memory, the Giants signed Armando Benitez to a 3yr/$21 million deal pending a physical.  I personally feel this is too long (yr 3 as an option would have been better) and for a little bit too much money, but it's hard to go wrong with a pitcher this good.  Could this be the first good free agent signing in the Sabean era?  

In other news:  Man bites dog, hell freezes over, Joe Morgan buys Billy beane a beer, and Tara Reid converts to the book of mormon.  

I couldn't stop laughing when I read this article.  It's from a year ago, and it's hilarious.  If you're a yankee hater as I am, you'll definitely appreciate it.  With the amount of money the Yanks already have committed going into this offseason, we'll see if this really might happen.

http://members.cox.net/amistad/onion.htm

It looks like one of the closer options is officially off the market.  My opinion, thank god.  I didn't really ever think that Billy was going to sign this guy, but I'm releived that it didn't happen all the same.  The guy's a chronic injury risk, has seen his strikeout rate plummet, and should have lost his job to K-Rod last year.  Have fun Detroit.  

As a sidebar to Blez's thread on Beane finding new market inefficiencies, I would like to introduce an article written by BP's Jonah Keri.  (No subscription required)  I think the new way of finding these market flaws will now be looking at new, underutilized ways of managing players skills rather than finding what skills are undervalued.  This in-depth article advocates the use of a four man rotation, elimination of specialist releivers, and a much deeper bench in order to utilize platoon splits in hitters.  I think this is a brilliant concept and Beane is just crazy enough to try it.  Give it read and lmk what AN thinks.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3369  

Is it just me, or is anyone else tired of everyone treating Derek Jeter like the mythic God of Clutch every time the postseason rolls around.  I'm so sick of it.  All I hear this time of year is how much he "steps it up in the playoffs."  Larry Kreuger actually had the gall to say he'd take Derek Jeter over Barry Bonds in the postseason.  And he works for KNBR for Christ sake!  Look, Derek Jeter is a great player, but he's not a "clutch" player.  There's no such thing.  Just to prove my point:

Jeter's career averages:  .315/.385/.463
Jeter's postseason averages:  .314/.385/.469

They're almost identical!  So where does the whole "Jeter turns it on in the postseason/let's all bow to the God of Clutch" syndrome come from?  Someone please help me understand this.  

Also:  If Fox runs that video clip of him flipping the ball to Jorge Posada one more time I'm going to lose it.      

Just FYI, this is where the A's rank in terms of team VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) compared to other AL Playoff Teams

Boston: 638.4 Runs Over Replacement Level
Anaheim: 602.9 "
A's: 598.5 "
New York: 568.4 "
Minnesota: 540.7 "

That's a 4.4 run difference in production for a $41 million difference in payroll.  

In Billy We Trust!

Go A's

  With the recent developments of baseball in DC.  The one person I really feel for is Miguel Tejada.  He signed on to what appeared to be an up and coming team with ownership willing to spend money.  However, now with the unprecedented deal that Orioles owner Peter Angelos received from mlb, those days are over.  MLB has given Angelos guaranteed revenues of $120 million regardless of his Orioles' actual revenue, as well as a guaranteed sale price if he were to sell the team.  Now no owner in baseball has more incentive to gut payroll and field a mediocre team as he watches the MLB subsidies pour in.  I'm sorry for Orioles fans, and I 'm sorry for Tejada.  Here's to another MVP caliber year.

Go A's