When can I take numbers an older minor leaguer puts up for real?

I will use a specific example of a player but looking for overall comments.

Dave Mckae went undrafted as a 22 YO senior.

Signed with the Giants and started in low A as a 23 year old where in 67 IP's he had a 2.4 ERA 11.15 k/9 and 1.07 WHIP with a 4.8 k/BB.  (Clearly too old for that competition so you discard the numbers)

Next year at 24 he was in A ball and threw 85 innings. 1.8 ERA, 7.5 k/9 and 4.1 k/BB ratio. (still much too old for competition so you discard the numbers)

Now at 25 he started the year in A (California league). 65 IP, 1.93 ERA 8k/9 and 3.5 K/BB ratio. (still seeing a 25 YO in A ball but begining to wonder)

A month ago he was promoted to AA in 5 starts he has averaged 7IP per start. A 1.47 ERA, 26k's and 3 BB's. --

Is these numbers continue at AA this year should we pay attention or is the age factor too much to over come?
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Dave%2520McKae&pos=P&sid=milb& t=p_pbp&pid=489549

With Kerry Wood signing I think the bullpen "COULD" (yes that is a big COULD) be very strong.

At the same time the obviously closing candidates all have real weaknesses.

So my question is who closes in 2007?

Kerry Wood
Bobby Howry
Ryan Dempster

Does Pinella have a history of the comitte aproach as that seems the most likely result.

I have notice 2 thinks recently in a keeper league I am.

1. SB's are over valued
   
2. Predicting future SB leaders is tough.

So my question for the group is what Minor leaguers are going to bust out and be SB threats in the future?

Not sure of Scout.com track record on prospects but I found list interesting.

http://scout.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=9&c=12&nid=287&lnid=287&pid=88&yr=2006

A few surprises:
Sowers # 6
Felix pie # 25
Eric Patterson #49
Javier Herrera # 50  (despite missing yet another chunk of time.

Interested to hear others thoughts.

May 1, 2006 reading the Prospect Hot Sheet on BA they let Jason Hirsh have it. (Rightfully so)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/hotsheet/261181.html

At that point he had given up  -- 20 runs on 26 hits in 24 innings ---

What has he done since?

74 IP and only 8 Earned Runs.

His full year stats include a 2.56 ERA in the hitter friendly PCL.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jason%20Hirsh&pos=P&sid=milb&a mp;t=p_pbp&pid=444865

Yet as I never see his name mentioned with the likes of: Pelfry, Billingesly or any of the other "elite" prospects.

Not advocating that he belongs in that group but my question is why not?

So the inspiration for this diary is Jed Morris (Oakland's other AA catcher). But really do not mean for this to be about him, but more of getting people thoughts on catcher development in general.

I think it is generally accepted that catchers take longer to develop, but when is too late for them?

Under normal circumstances a hitter dominating single A at 25 or AA at 26 would be ignored but what type of developmental break do catchers get.

Anyone have info on when catchers average age is when they make it to the bigs?
What is an apropriate age to league for a catcher or do the get no special breaks?
---
For those of you interested here are Jed Morris'
stats
3 years in high A with OPS of 829, 737, 939
First year in AA 922 OPS
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/jed-morris.shtml

As far as I have seen he has never even ranked as an A's top 30 prospect.

Hey Folks. Here are a few of people I am hoping will fall to us comments are appreciated and very needed.
THis is For round 2 and 3.
Chad Tracy    c    Jr.    R-R    Pepperdine
Mark Hamilton    1b    Jr.    L-L    Tulane
Jeff Locke    lhp    Sr.    L-L    Kennett HS
Steven Wright    rhp    Jr.    R-R    Hawaii
Matt Long    rhp    Sr.    R-R    Miami (Ohio)
Milton Loo    3b/ss    So.    R-R    Yavapai JC
Brandon Belt    lhp    Sr.    L-L    Hudson HS
Alex White    rhp/3b    Sr.    R-R    D.H. Conley
Josh Butler    rhp    Jr.    R-R    San Diego
Trevor Cahill    rhp    Sr.    R-R    Vista HS
Cory Rasmus    rhp    Sr.    R-R    Russell HS

Also any round 4-5 guys I should target.
2 catchers I like in round 4 are:
Jordan Newton    c    Jr.    R-R    Western Kentucky
Matt McBride    c    Jr.    R-R    Lehigh

I never thought I would see Delmon Young ranked by anyone as the # 3 prospect let alone the #3 OF prospect in baseball.

Dan Perry who I have mixed feelings on (love his writting disagree with him a bunch) has him as 3rd best OF prospect.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5616182

Has his stock really fallen that far or is this more of Milledge learning patience and Upton crusing in pro debut?

Yep thats right John Baker is back
http://scout.scout.com/a.z?s=304&p=9&c=2&cid=486335&nid=1822234&fhn=1&refid= 4742

Appears the marlins designated him to make room for Olivo and he was claimed by the A's.

I guess this is not the biggest news as Baker looked less than impressive last season but more curious what everyones thoughts are on way minor leaguers are treated. One thing when you are making 300,000+ a year to be asked to constantly move with basically no say, but this seems brutal. (yes I know Baker did not actually move but the thoery of it I question).

I would be interested in peoples thoughts.

So every offseason I try to assemble a 25 man roster that I think would be able to compete using only free-agents, and within a budget of what I estimate will be at about the league's median salary.

Last years median salary (Ok not exactly median but the 15th highest salary) was the Tigers at 68.9 million. With all the new money around from new contracts and deals I think median salary will be about 74 million this year.

It is kind of a fun exersice I use to pass the time.

Here is my list at present (using only people who have already signed). I used the average amount they will recieve over life of contract.

Hopefully as more people sign I can make some improvements as I have 3 bench positions to fill and only .3 left.

SP    Loazia        7.1
SP    Burnett        11
SP    Paul Byrd   7
SP    Moyer        5.5
SP    Etherton        .4

RP    Danny Graves    0.65
RP    Rincon            1.5
RP    Witasick    1.4
RP    Bradford    1.4
RP    Chris Hammond    0.8
RP    Dotel            2.25
Closer    Jose Mesa       2.1

1B    Mientkiewicz    1.85
2B    Nomar Garcipara    6   
3B    Bill Mueller    4.75
SS    Pokey Reese    .8
RF    Rondell White    3.25
LF    Matt Lawton    0.4
CF    Jose Cruz Jr    2.9
C    Ramon Hernandez    6.9

C    Sandy Alomar    0.65
OF    Bernie Williams    1.5
IF   Miguel Cario 1    
Utility       
OF       
    Total            71.1

Interested to see other peoples lists or thoughts.

Our Major League roster is looking very strong for the coming year, but this off season has caused an average minor league system to look even more suspect.

Losses- and www.scout.com ranking on our prospect list:
Either-3 (trade)
Majewski-43 (trade)
Alexi Ogando-23 (Rule 5)

Only real additions have been of Roney and Gaudin neither of whom are anything to get too excited about.

In addition Loazia has cost us our first round pick meaning our first pick in 06 draft will likely be around 70.

So my question to AN is what is the next step? How do we rebuild a once great minor league system or do you feel it should not be a concern.

John did a review of his Mock draft recently and was  hoping we could do the same.
Honestly too lazy to try to figure it out for all the teams but if each GM cares to:

1. post thier picks
   
2. if they signed and bonus
   
3. If they signed intime to play what were the stats.

So long AN.

Sure many of you, Mychael Urban, included will not be sad to see me go. Regret I no longer feel comfortable being associated with a site that I feel has begun to promote hatred. Of course those promoting this will claim free-speech and they are welcome to their speech but it (in my opinion) nonetheless promotes hate.

http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/9/2/195021/8428

http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/9/2/112342/2222

While Americans die in Iraq and here at home it apparently is more acceptable to preach hatred than hope, blame than faith.

This was once a great site and I hope (and am confident) that it will be again.The A's need all the support they can get

-------------
FoolshGame22 - Looks like you are going to lose your Byrnes v Kotsay bet:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/6/24/75025/3841

Appreciate if you will (upon season's end) donate the $100 to the Red Cross. www.redcross.org

Of course should things turn please contact me at threerunhomer@gmail.com -- and I will of course make arrangements to pay you.

Best Wishes and GO A's.

Well a certian writer seems to think that the Angels  have "exceptional defense".

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050808&content_id=1162566& ;vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

While the Angeles have a couple exceptional defensive players: Molina's and Erstad, on a whole thier defense is average at best.

Evidence:
1. Baseball Prospectus Defensive Efficeny stats have them better than 18 teams. (good not excpetional)

2.OF Assists---Dead last in the AL West.

3. 2 most important defensive positions: CF and SS. Cabrera ranks 11 of 25 in Elias' Zone Rating and CF Finley ranks 20 of 21 qualified.

The Angeles defense is solid, but exceptional I think not.

During the last game thread Duby and I had a small conversation on what made a good number 2 hitter in the line-up.

Curious about what everyone else's thoughts were.   

Note I am not asking who should be the number 2 hitter for the A's but rather what traits/skill set you think an ideal number 2 hitter would have.

To me OBP was far and away the most important factor. Followed by a low strike out rate, and low double play rate. But I will give it all up for a number 2 guy that gets on base.

Duby brought up what he thought was important:

Speed, Discipline, High contact rate, and ability to move the runner. He likewise thought OBP was important but could be compensated for with high skill levels in above.

So AN what are the traits of an ideal number 2 hitter? And what value do you put on each.

Well for those of you who missed it I got slamed yesterday for my disparaging comments about Mychael Urban. http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/7/28/175745/737#commenttop

Mychael Urban himself jumped in to bust on me. And Blez apparently wil ban me if I call Urban an idiot.

Well after all that I decided I better go back and document why I feel Urban is not a good baseball wirter.

I began this process thinking I would look at all his Mailbags over last year however quickly ran into way too many "Urbanisms" in just reviewing. October, November and December of 2004.

Trust me more are available but these are my favorites from October 2004-December 2004. (during What I like to refer as my enlightening about Urban.)

10-9-04
"I think that closer Troy Percival and second baseman Bret Boone would be great fits"

Adding to this disaster is 11-22 he says of Percival:

^^Percival is 35, he's coming off a season in which he spent time on the disabled list with elbow trouble and he doesn't throw nearly as hard as he used to.
Also of note: Percival's strikeouts per nine innings have gone down considerably from when he was an elite closer. In 2001, his K/9 rate was 11.08. In 2002, 10.86. In 2003, 8.76. And last year, it dropped all the way to 5.98.^^

10-9-04
"MVP of 2004 is Mark Kotsay" (OK not my choice but not stupid)

But his choice for number 2? Eric "friggin" Byrnes

11-29-04 from Mailbag.
Calls Beane's trade for Kendal: "Beane's best trade ever" (Good trade but come one!!!)

11-22-04
Asked if Blanton is ready for Big League?

^ My first instinct is to say no, based solely on his numbers at Triple-A. At 11-8 with a 4.19 ERA, it's not like he set the Pacific Coast League on fire. But I guess it all depends on your definition of "prime time."
Might he be ready to pitch in the big leagues next year? Sure. He has a great arm and good command of his stuff. But he's a back-of-the-rotation guy at best at this stage in his career; if he were truly ace-like, he'd have been in the big leagues before age 24, as were all three of The Big Three.
Bottom line: I think it'd be risky to count on him to make 30 starts in The Show this year.

----
Well OK now a chance for allof you to tell me how great he is. Even a poll which will come in at 90% in favor I am sure to boost your ego MR. Urban.

1.  http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3774338

Talks about A's needs. One more big bat, Adam Dunn and what it might take to get him. He mentions Blanton and Jario. That would hurt but Dunn is a great player. Althought 192 BA v lefties is really bad.

2.  http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3775662

Talks about underrated prospects. No A's make the list but talks about Nelson Cruz. Still pisses me off that we gave up such a prospect and then never gave Ginter a full time job. I said it then and I will say it now. If you were not going to give him a job to lose you do not trade an "elite prospect. Oh well....

Billy has finaly confirmed what I had suspecting for some time now. We are going to be able to spend some money in the offseason.

"Now we have the youngest rotation in the league, and if we want, we can bring back the entire team we put in the field and we'll have some financial room to do things in the offseason," says GM Billy Beane. -- from Gammons article http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2112376

Here is what 06 looks like the ^ are realistic estimates. Sure some will debate if we bring back Kennedy or if Payton is back but if you do not like that you will see even more money is available. Important to note Beane rarely goes after Free Agents but times are changing.

Starters:
Harden: 1
Harden    1
Blanton    0.35
Haren    0.5 ^
Meyer    0.316
Zito    8.5 (gammons says Zito only gets 7 but he is sketchy on details.

Bullpen:
Street: .4
Calero    0.6^
Flores    0.316
Duke    2^
Kennedy    2^
J. Garcia 0.316
Sarloos    0.5^

Lineup:
C    Kendal    12
1B    D. Johnson 0.4
2B    Ellis    0.75
SS    Crosby    0.75
3B    Chavez    9.5
LF    Kielty    1.5^
RF    Swisher    0.4
CF    Kotsay    7.5
DH      Payton  4

Bench:
Mellhuse: 1
Ginter: .5
Scutaro: .4

Above puts payroll at about 55 Million I know AN's opinion will be NO to Payton which would put us at only 51 million meaning we have around 9 million to spend.

What do we do with the money?

I originally had this season written off (sorry A's I was wrong). Previously with the season written off it made perfect sense to let some rookies (Swisher in this case) play through challenges. However if we are truly going to make a run we need the best line-up possible going whenever possible.

Swish is surprisingly our best hitter (year to date) against righties with an 854 OPS.

However he has been simply horrible against lefties. 164 BA and a 537 OPS.

So with deep regret I must ask Macha to bench Swisher against lefties. Now obviously we need to give him ocasional play against lefties but it must be very limited.

Note to AN
What I would really like is for someone to tell me I am missing something in the stats, but I doubt it.

What are your thoughts?

Being a major league Catcher seems to involve 4 major skills:

1. Hitting
   
2. Blocking balls --preventing past balls
   
3. Throwing runners out stealing.
   
4. Calling a great game.

Can a Minor leaguer learn this? Or is calling a game in the minors so different because hitters have so many holes, And so much less scouting information is available to them before they see guys.

My theory is while to some extent you can learn and practice calling a game in the minors this is one major area that needs to learned in the pros.

What are your thoughts and if it does have to be learned in the Pro's how long does it take to learn to call a GOOD GAME.

OK I now offically think Upton will amount to nothing!!!!

2 Errrors and another crapy play that cost them a double play, last night at ALL star game

He is a joke and while he may have all the talent in the world you have to have some desire and I see absolutely NONE.

He was over paid out of High School so Money will never be an issue and I think he will likely be brought up next year and flounder never amounting to anything.

Just my thoughts (rant) so upsetting to him play.

Daric Barton and Javier Herrera played in the futures game today.  The World beat the US 4-0, with Barton representing US and Herrera respresenting the world.

Barton had 1 AB and struck out.

Herrera had 2 PA and had a walk and a single with 1 RBI.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050710&content_id=1124782&vkey=allstar2 005&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

AAA all-star game is Wednesday.

Wednesday I will be at the AAA all-star game in Sacramento.  

Any advice on players to watch.  Never been to a minor league all-star game so any sugestions would be very helpful.

By the way just saw that ESPN has agreed to brodcast the game.

http://www.pclbaseball.com/

Rosters:

http://www.pclbaseball.com/news/?id=4188

Alot of posts (maybe only by a few people) being real critical of ESPN and biased coverage or just a hate for the capitalist machine they are..

With out getting into that just wanted to post a real positive article by tim Kurjikan

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=2101461

he notes are 15-8 record against lefties. Remember a few years ago when lefty equaled a sure loss. times have changes. (by the way lilly is pitching tonight!!!!

Get to 500 first, too early to be watching the scoreboard, rebuilding year... BLAH BLAH BLAH.

I am offically watching the Wild Card race and have some thoughts:

First here are the present standings
             GB
Minn 41-33  ---
BAL  42-34  ---
CLE  40-34   -1
TEX  38-36   -3
NYY  39-37   -3
DET  36-36   -4
TOR  38-39   -4.5
OAK  35-40   -6.5

Now I am removing TOR and DET from being an issue because frankly they have no shot. I am also not going to worry about TEX (not becuase they are not good but we play them 14 more times so we can easily pass them.) Using that logic we have 4 teams ahead of us to worry about.

MINN, BAL, CLE and NYY.
Each team has some major weaknesses but so do we and catching them will be tough. But I will be rooting against them every chance I get going forward and suggest you do the same.

Special comment on MINN who I think has the best shot at the Wild Card. We have a 3 game series against them in late Septemeber (in Oakland) so if we get hot at the right time that would be very helpful

Ok here is the list of AAA all stars from the PCL:

http://www.pclbaseball.com/news/?id=4188

Interested to see who you felt got snubed. Remember like the ML all-star game each of the 16 teams needed to have a player on the roster of 29. So not a lot of room.

* * PLAYERS ELECTED * *

C JOSH WILLINGHAM - ALBUQUERQUE
1B CONOR JACKSON - TUCSON
2B ANDY GREEN - TUCSON
3B MIKE COOLBAUGH - ROUND ROCK
SS RONNY CEDENO - IOWA
OF CHRIS SNELLING - TACOMA
OF TYRELL GODWIN - NEW ORLEANS
OF RAUL GONZALEZ - MEMPHIS
SP FELIZ HERNANDEZ - TACOMA
SP CHRIS GISSELL - MEMPHIS
RP BRAD BAKER - PORTLAND
RP JERMAINE VAN BUREN - IOWA
DH RICK SHORT - NEW ORLEANS

* * PLAYERS SELECTED * *

C DIONER NAVARRO - LAS VEGAS
INF MIKE CERVENAK - FRESNO
INF ESTEBAN GERMAN - OKLAHOMA
INF TRENT DURRINGTON - NASHVILLE
INF IAN KINSLER - OKLAHOMA
INF RYAN SHEALY - COLORADO SPRINGS
OF MATT WATSON - SACRAMENTO
OF ADRIAN BROWN - OMAHA
P DUSTY BERGMAN - SALT LAKE
P TAYLOR BUCHHOLZ - ROUND ROCK
P JASON BULGER - TUCSON
P CLAY HENSLEY - PORTLAND
P KEVIN JARVIS - MEMPHIS
P COREY LEE - SALT LAKE
P JIMMY SERRANO - SACRAMENTO

MANAGER; FRANK DEFRANCESCO - SACRAMENTO
COACH: BOBBY JONES - OKLAHOMA
COACH: MIKE PARROTT - TUCSON
TRAINER: WALT HORN - SACRAMENTO

Well the roster for the PCL portion of the AAA all-star game is posted:

http://www.pclbaseball.com/news/?id=4188

Serrano and Watson are the notable A's players, as well as  MANAGER; FRANK DEFRANCESCO.

Also noticed our old friend Estaben German made the squad.

I will be in SAC for the All-Star festivities (anyone else going).

ESPN insider is reporting the Brewers are seeking a left-handed bat of the bench.

Quote:
The Brewers have spent the last few days trying to add a left-handed hitter to their bench, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
"I haven't found someone for us," GM Doug Melvin told the newspaper. "Our pitching is fine, we don't need help there. We're also at 40 on our 40-man roster."
UnQuote

To me this looks like a great place to send Hatteberg, who in his last 20 PA as a PH has a 961 OPS with 2 HR.

Once Durazo returns he become painfully expendable so I hope (presume) Billy has to be talking to them.

I could also see the A's floating Watson, C. Thomas to the Brew crew.

[EDITOR'S NOTE: I thought I'd bump this to the front page because apparently Andre Ethier is the Texas League's version of Garret Anderson. There's also a chat here with catcher Jeremy Brown. - Blez]

Home Run derby Champ and all star MVP.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050622&content_id=12203&vkey=n ews_milb&fext=.jsp

Not a bad night!!!

Also noted they made the playoff's for first time in 10 years.

Also noted Quintanilla, Colamarino and Brown were all all-stars.

With the A's drafting a bunch of HS kids many have viewed them as bailing out on the college kid approach. And many more articles calling that draft a failure.

I will plead to some ignorance here but when I review the top 100 picks from the 2002 draft I really see them as winners:

3 players they drafted are starting on a regular basis:
Mark Teahen, Joe Blanton, and Nick Swisher.  

I can not find one team that has more than 1. (please correct me if I am wrong)

So a lot to criticize in that draft and book but to call it a failure seems inaccurate.