The draft is on Monday and this is a loaded class.  The Royals have done pretty well in the draft the past few years (my only complaint would be that they should be actively trying to figure out how to get compensation picks).  After taking a couple of high upside HS bats in 07 (Moose) and 08 (Hos) the Royals have taken a college arm in 09 (Crow--who actually sat out a year after not signing with the Nats) and a college bat in 10 (Colon).  The rumors are all over the place:  college arm has been repeated over and over but so has Lindor and Bubba.

Of course, in the baseball draft, Best Player Available is always the way to go.  It is just really hard to compare Bubba Starling with a guy like Danny Hultzen.  They are at such different places developmentally.  Which one is the best player?  That is up for debate--but if you think that you are a starting pitcher away from competing in 2013 then it makes sense to lean towards the college arm.  I think of Bubba and Hultzen within the same tier--however I think teams get in trouble reaching for a player outside of the tier--say a Matt Barnes--who is a good prospect but I think there are clearly better options available at #5.

Here is my draft board at this point:

1. Anthony Rendon

Think the shoulder will be fine. Has the potential to be a Ryan Zimmerman/Evan Longoria type player.  I think there no chance he makes it to us at 5.

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Here is part 2 of our interview with JJ Cooper.  I got my BA Handbook last week (buy it here) and, after having devoured the Royals' section, then had the chance to ask JJ some questions--it was like Christmas.  Thanks to JJ for his time and insight.

1.       1. What position is the biggest weakness in the Royals’ system?

The Royals are still pretty thin up the middle, especially at shortstop. The two best shortstop prospects in the system (if you think, like me and most people that Colon will end up at second base) are a) Jeff Bianchi, a player coming off Tommy John surgery who has had four significant injuries in the past six years and b) a pair of Dominican shortstops who have yet to play in the U.S.

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If I were to lay out my blueprints for a great farm system, I would want some top notch bats at the top.  Players who can get on base and have power.  I would want to make sure their strikeouts aren't a big problem in the minors--as that can spell trouble at the big league level.  Those top level hitting prospects are about the most valuable thing you can have in a farm system.  For pitching, I would want depth--lots of it.  The average return on pitching prospects has been about the same between pitchers ranked in the Top 10 and others ranked 11-50.  I would want pitchers with good control and starters who know how to use a change-up.  Of course, I would want some young international guys--both pitchers and position players with incredible tools/velocity.  There would also be some bounce back candidates who are looking to improve after some disappointing years.  The Royals have all those things.

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You've waited, you've had sleepless night, you've dreamed of this day---who (or perhaps: in what order) are the Royals' Top 6 Prospects. If the Royals are to ever climb out of the deep dark hole they've dug, they will need some of these players to become stars--perhaps have one who can put up a few MVP type seasons .

But we aren't quite done yet, next week I'll wrap up the series by putting out a little something I call The Overview.

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Down the stretch we come.  We get to players that just about every Royals fan has heard of.  The Top 8 or 9 Royals prospects are just about the same on every list--the order differs slightly--but I find those differences really interesting because they show you what the person doing the ranking values. 

It's not hard to imagine the players below becoming above average major leaguers.  Perhaps even some legitimate All-Star seasons.  Sure some of these guys will go down in flames, but every one of the players below would be a top 3 prospect in several organizations.

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With a pretty quiet week, I was able to crank out another set of rankings.  The Royals have a highly regarded set of left-handed pitching.  This installment is the "revenge of the right-handers".  Ventura, Yambati, Jeffress and Melville--coupled with Jason Adam, Aaron Crow, and now Jake Odorizzi give the Royals a lot of potential (and velocity) from the right side---they just lack the consistency and advancement that the lefty crew has shown. 

Happy New Year--hope it brings good things for all.  Bring on 2011! (or as it's known to Royals fans: 2012 Eve)

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The Royals Top 30 just got a little deeper--kind of.  I realized I had neglected to put Kevin Chapman on the list.  #26 seemed just right for him, so everyone below him gets bumped down a slot.  That also means I'll cover 7 prospects in this installment and again next time.  We now start getting to prospects who could easily be on other teams' Top 10 list.  It's become a cliche but this is a really good group of prospects--we will probably be spoiled in a few years when this list isn't as good.

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The ranks of the Royals prospects swelled this past week.  I'm not sure what I can add about the Greinke trade--I went through the same cycle I've heard from many Royals fans:  Initially disappointed that the Royals didn't go for more upside and then becoming more optimistic when looking at the whole package.   Once you start making a 2013 lineup and it looks very strong with lots of intriguing leftovers.  We now have 32 prospects left to cover and so I've got reports on 7 this and there will be 7 more next time.  You can find prospects #62-33 here. After the jump I'll give some thoughts on Escobar and Cain and then get to the scouting reports.

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In this installment, we finish off the bottom half of the Top 60.  Here we have several players who project to be role players in big leagues.  Not big time ceilings but if the Royals are to compete in 2013 and beyond then some of these players (or players similar to them) will need to step up and contribute.  At the same time, the Royals need to avoid overexposing players with limited talents.  I am particularly interested in how the Royals bullpen will develop in the next couple of years.  Bullpen prospects are notoriously fickle but, among the Royals' strengths, are a large group of interesting bullpen pitchers.  If the Royals can put together a good, cheap bullpen that will free up resources to invest in other areas.   

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Now we start getting to the meat of the system.  There are some really exciting players to talk about.  Jorge Bonifacio, Humberto Arteaga and Kelvin Herrera all have exciting numbers/tools. Obviously they all are either raw or have injury issues that keep them from being top prospects.  But hopefully a couple of these toolsy players will have a breakout 2011 and be a lot higher next year.

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A littler later than expected, here is the latest installment of our trip through the amusement park that is the Royals' Minor League System.  This installment closes out what I look at as organization filler or guys who you have to do a lot of dreaming on.  Most of the players featured this week I can see making an appearance at some point in the big leagues but probably will always be the 24th/25th player on a roster.  Starting with the next installment, we'll begin to see some players who are, in my opinion, somewhat exciting.

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Onward we continue.  As expected, this list will evolve a little over the winter.  This past week, I had to take out Ed Lucas and add in Lance Zawadzki.  And then with the DDJ trade, Justin Marks was added in.  I had left one open slot for just such an addition, so the list has 60 names on it.  If we add more prospects then we'll have to adjust the list some.  #54-49 covers several international signees and a couple of pitchers from past drafts.

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Well here we go.  We begin our countdown of the 2011 Royals Top 60 Prospects.  I would dare say the Royals have never had a group of prospects with these kind of expectations (perhaps Royals fans have had high expectations in the past but the expectations from outside the organization/fans are astronomical).  Hopefully, I'll be able to crank out one of these a week.  I plan to do six prospects at a time, so consider this Part 1 of my 10 part series: Better Know a Royals Prospect.

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We finish up this little series by compiling the team numbers to get a range of what we can expect from our farm system in the coming years.  We will then look at a couple of case studies to see how the Royals would need to supplement their Top 10 prospects to put together a team that could make the playoffs.

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Part 1 covered the #1 ranked teams from the year 2001-2005.  Now we will look at the past 5 years.  In some ways I find this more interesting because I think prospect evaluation has gotten somewhat better due to better minor league information and also more competition in the prospect ranking world.  I dropped the salary information because most of these players are still making close to the minimum.  I also have included the #2 and #3 ranked teams just to give us a little more information to draw from.

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Over this winter, pretty much any and every publication that ranks minor league systems will have the Royals at #1.  I decided to take a look back and see what that has meant for teams.  We've heard that  over the last decade every team that has been ranked #1 has made the playoffs within 5 years.  That's nice but it doesn't really tell you how instrumental their farm system was in that process.  

What I've done is look at Baseball America's #1 farm system for the past 10 years.  I look at how much WAR their top 10 prospects contributed over the 7 years after they were named the #1 system.  In this first installment, you'll also see approximately how much salary those prospects were paid. 

I know this system isn't perfect.  Some of the players got traded and so didn't get that WAR for their original team.  Players who contribute outside of the Top 10 aren't figured.  But I hope this will be a rough sketch for floor, ceiling and median of what can be expected from a #1 farm system over the next several years.

Part 1 covers the first 5 years.  Part 2 will look at the next 5 years (and will also look at how the #2 and #3 ranked minor league systems have done).

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