SB Nation User Blog: nwroyal

Royals Top 30 Prospects: #6-1

nwroyal — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:13:15 -0000

We made it. Here it is: The Top 6 7 Prospects in the Royals system. I still plan one more post-next week-that will cover the state of the system and break down our prospects in some different ways. I think a couple of my rankings may surprise you. So feel free to make your case if you disagree with me.

#6b--Noel Arguelles--LHP--Age:20?

The Royals signed Arguelles to a 5 year/$7million contract last week. Just a couple of years ago, the biggest international bones we'd given out was around $200,000--it is good to see the increased investment--but it will be years before we know if the Royals spent that money on the right players. Arguelles is advertised as 20ish but who knows. Since 2001, the US Government has cracked down on people changing their birthdate so there are fewer instances of prospects magically aging (see: Berroa, Angel). However, I'm not sure how that affects Cuban defectors who are leaving a place that isn't going to cooperate with the US Government trying to establish how old a player is. The bottom line is: we probably can't know with any certainty how old he is. However it isn't a huge issue if he is 22 instead of 20--in fact it might reduce his change for injury a little bit. What we do know about is his stuff--you've probably read the same scouting reports I've read: FB92-94, plus changeup and potential for plus curve. Control is an issue for him. I've read some folks who prefer him over Aroldis Chapman (but that is a minority view). Really tough guy to rank but I put him right behind Duffy--and I might even put him a hair behind Melville. Reports are that he is expected to start the season at Wilmington where it will be very interesting to see how he adjusts.

#6--Dan Duffy--LHP--Age:20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	IP	BF	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	19	Burlington	MIDW	A	2.20	17	81.2	325	0.992	6.2	0.4	2.8	11.2	4.08
2009	20	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	2.98	24	126.2	516	1.176	7.7	0.4	2.9	8.9	3.05
3 Seasons					2.49	52	245.2	998	1.103	6.9	0.4	3.0	10.6	3.49

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/14/2009.

Part of me thinks Duffy doesn't get enough respect. Another part of me is nervous about him for reasons I'm not sure I can put my finger on. Duffy was our 3rd Round Pick out of a small HS in California. Duffy has occasionally been falsely labeled a soft-tosser. His FB sits in the low-90s which isn't blazing but not slow either. He adds a very good curveball and a good/decent changeup. In 2008, he gave up a lot of flyballs but he increased his GB% in 2009 from 37% to 47%--he'll need to keep that rate high to thrive in the Texas League. His numbers predictably dropped from an amazing 2008--his K rate and hit rate both went up but were still quite good. In fact, he K'd the 2nd highest percentage of batters in the Carolina league and had the best FIP--all while being one of the younger pitchers in the league. No doubt he benefited from his spacious home ballpark but he actually pitched better on the road. Scouts don't see much projection left in him--but he doesn't need it--if he keeps his excellent command he can succeed at the big league level and be more than just a middle of the rotation starter. Look for him in AA to start 2010.

#5--Mike Moustakas--3B--Age:21

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	PA	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	19	Burlington	MIDW	A	549	25	3	22	71	8	4	43	86	.272	.337	.468	.805
2009	20	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	530	32	2	16	86	10	6	32	90	.250	.297	.421	.718
3 Seasons					1126	61	6	38	167	18	10	79	184	.262	.320	.444	.764

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/14/2009.

The #2 pick in the 2007 draft, Mike Moustakas hasn't yet lived up to the hype. In 2008, he had a horrible 1st half at Burlington but then turned it on and had an amazing 2nd half that raised expectations and allowed folks to forget those early season struggles. Things looked encouraging to start 2009 as Moose hit 274/321/507 in his first month. But his numbers plunged the next few months. He hit a little bit better to end the year but still ended up with pretty ugly numbers for a #2 overall pick (especially that .297 OBP). Moose was assigned to the Arizona Fall League where he hit 267/288/560. You can slice those numbers a lot of ways--on base problems again vs. huge power, Mike was in a very hitting friendly environment vs. he was one of the youngest players in the league (most AFL participants have AA experience and are a couple of years older). Then there were the reports of his putting on weight--a couple of AFL watchers commented on it. Personally, I'm not too worried about weight and conditioning yet. I am worried about his on base ability. In 2008, he walked about 8% of the time, last year it dropped to 6%. He needs to start pushing that number back up. Also, his BABIP has been pretty low for two straight year--not sure if he has been unlucky both seasons of if there is something else going on there. He has improved defensively at 3rd base and the amazing power is still there. As he goes to AA, he need to 1. Be more patient--he's got such a quick bat that he needs to realize that just because he can put his bat on a pitch doesn't mean he should get his bat on a pitch. 2. Enjoy the Texas league--he goes to a hitting friendly league where he should see his average and power increase. 3. Get lucky--pull that BABIP back up. I think/hope he'll bounce back to something like 280/340/500 next year.

#4--Will Myers--C--Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	PA	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	18	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	80	7	1	4	14	2	9	15	.426	.488	.735	1.223
2009	18	Burlington	APPY	Rook	16	0	1	1	4	0	0	3	.125	.125	.438	.563
1 Season					96	7	2	5	18	2	9	18	.369	.427	.679	1.106

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/14/2009.

There were rumors that the Royals were considering Myers with the #12 overall pick in the 2009 draft. He was an athletic catcher from a North Carolina HS who was scaring teams off with his price tag. The Royals had him in a for a predraft workout at the K and he made quite the impression. Myers is an amazing athlete with some folks speculating he could play CF if C doesn't work out. He has power and projects to hit for average as well. Myers didn't play against top level competition in HS so it was a little harder to know what his true talent level is. Myers fell into their lap in the 3rd Round and the Royals drafted him. He didn't sign until mid-August because the commissioner wouldn't let the Royals announce the way over slot signing bonus of $2 million. The Royals let him play a series in his home state of North Carolina before shipping him off to Idaho Falls for the final month of the season. Freshly drafted high schoolers normally don't go to the Pioneer League but the Royals challenged him (and the Pioneer League schedule lasted longer so he could get more at bats). The results: 426/488/735. Just a month, I keep telling myself. But those are some crazy numbers. His potential is high enough that there is a case for him to on top of this list but his lack of track record tempers my enthusiasm just a hair. He's still raw behind the plate but the questions behind him staring there are simply form the unknown. It could be that his bat will be ready before his glove is and that may make for an interesting decision. I"m guessing he will go to Burlington, Iowa to start 2010 where he will face an league/environment that has chewed up many a HS hitter. I can't wait to see how he handles it.

#3--Eric Hosmer--1B--Age:20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	PA	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	--	Burlington	MIDW	A	327	17	2	5	49	3	2	44	68	.254	.352	.382	.734
2009	--	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	107	2	2	1	10	0	0	9	22	.206	.280	.299	.579
2 Seasons					449	21	4	6	61	3	2	56	92	.245	.341	.366	.707

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/14/2009.

I feel like I'm either Eric Hosmer's agent or his mom because I don't think anyone else is going to have him this high on their list. If you liked Eric Hosmer a year ago there isn't any reason not to like him now. I know that may be tough to swallow looking at last year's numbers but I think there are valid reasons for struggles. Feel free to tell me if you think I'm just making excuses for him. He struggled his 1st month in the cold, pitcher friendly Midwest League but then hit 299/413/483 in May. He injured his hand at the end of May, I believe, and his stats in June dipped to 211/274/316 but he seemed to heal some and July was 288/377/442 until he was inexplicably called up to Wilmington. I haven't really heard a good reason why he was promoted. He really struggled and then there was the goggles/lasik incident that finished off his year. I'm not saying Hosmer didn't have issues to work on. He didn't get the ball in the air enough for a guy who was supposed to have the best power potential in the 2008 draft. Did that have to do with his eyes? Was his hand injury still lingering? I don't know but was able to get on base and power can be an elusive tool to display at a young age and I think the power will return. I think those folks who have dropped him way down their prospect lists will regret it in 2010. The Hoz will go back to the Caroline League in 2010 to try and avenge the misguided assignment he was sent on there last year.

#2--Aaron Crow--RHP--Age:23

Crow was drafted 9th overall in 2008 by the Nationals after an amazing Junior season at Mizzou going 13-0 with a 2.59 ERA, 127k/38w in 107IP. Negotiations went sour with the Nats and he didn't sign. I didn't think Crow would be availible when we picked at #12 but he was and we took him (I didn't think Grant Green would be either and that is who I would have taken but Crow was second on my list). We did take him but we didn't sign him until September. The Royals and Crow really hurt themselves as they missed valuable developmental time that Crow could have used after missing a season. Crow did got to instructional league and then the AFL where he got 15 innings in with a 5.87 ERA, 12k/2w 17h. He shook off the rust of his first couple of outings and pitched better in his last two. Crow has a great fastball--mid 90s, sinking movement and he commands it really well. He's also got a plus slider and a changeup that is a little inconsistent but can be good. Pitch F/X from AFL showed a sinker--but that might just be the FB. In college he was known to hold his velocity deep into games. Some pitching mechanic gurus don't like his motion (because of a wrist curl in his motion) and think he is a high injury risk. I don't know enough to know if their concerns are warranted. He has the tools to be a front of rotation starter--but being off for a year means that 2010 will be spent making sure he isn't worked too hard in returning to competitive pitching. I"m not sure where he'll start 2010 but I'm guessing Northwest Arkansas.

#1--Mike Montgomery--LHP--Age:20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	18	Royals	ARIZ	Rook	1.69	12	42.2	1.008	6.5	0.4	2.5	7.2	2.83
2009	19	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-A_adv	2.21	21	110.0	1.055	6.5	0.1	2.9	8.0	2.72
2009	19	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	2.25	9	52.0	0.962	6.6	0.0	2.1	8.0	3.83
2009	19	Burlington	MIDW	A	2.17	12	58.0	1.138	6.5	0.2	3.7	8.1	2.17
2 Seasons					2.06	33	152.2	1.041	6.5	0.2	2.8	7.8	2.75

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/14/2009.

Coming into 2009, I expected Hosmer and/or Moustakas to cement their status as our top prospects. That didn't happen and it could make Montgomery's ascension to the #1 spot seem somewhat like he made it by default. That would be wrong. He is a legitimate #1 prospect. He isn't a Top 10 in all of baseball prospect (at least, not yet) but his performance in his first full professional season was amazing. Montgomery was a supplemental 1st round pick out of HS in California. He was also a basketball player before he got kicked off the team for too many flagrant fouls. He throws a good fastball at 91-93 that generates a lot of groundballs. He has room to grow and could add more velocity. He has a very good changeup. He has the potential for a good curve but needs more consistency. He pitched very well as he started the year at Burlington. He was then promoted to Wilmington where he pitched even better. He control got better after the promotion cutting his walk rate in half. Just for fun, go compare his Carolina League numbers to Brian Matusz (top Orioles prospect who began the year at the Carolina league and is over 2 years older than Montgomery). All the ingredients are there for him to be a top of the rotation starter. He's still only 20 but its hard to argue he has much more to prove at Wilmington. Still the Royals could start him there and promote him midseason or, if he impresses in the Spring, could go ahead and put him at AA.

Royals Review Community Prospect List: #7

nwroyal — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 17:34:16 -0000

I am back from my trip and we can now resume our prospect list. There is the pleasant surprise of having a brand new name to throw into the mix: Cuban LHP Noel Arguelles. I hope to have the final installment of my personal prospect list up later this week (it might get delayed as we arrived home to a burst pipe and 30 inches of water in the basement). When I do get that published I will sqeeze Arguelles in his own special spot.

Dan Duffy won our last poll with a commanding 51% of the vote.

As before, the choices are listed alphabetically and you can make your case in the comment section.

#1--Mike Montgomery--LHP--36%

#2--Mike Moustakas--3B--36%

#3--Aaron Crow--RHP--45%

#4--Eric Hosmer--1B--44%

#5--Will Myers--C--43%

#6--Dan Duffy--LHP--51%

Poll

Who is the Royals #7 Prospect

Royals Top 30 Prospects: #12-7

nwroyal — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:01:55 -0000

Here are prospects #12-7. This is where things get really fun as we get to players who you can dream on some. The next installment will, of course, cover #6-1. Unfortunately, it won't happen next week because I will be out of the country all week. So look for it in 2 weeks. You can probably figure out who the top 6 are, but the question will be what order they are in. Here are my humble thoughts and I invite your questions and comments.

#12--Jordan Parraz--RF--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2006	21	Tri-City	NYPL	A_ss	HOU	298	18	2	6	38	23	3	33	44	.336	.421	.494	.915
2007	22	Lexington	SALL	A	HOU	530	28	3	14	76	33	10	47	89	.281	.364	.446	.810
2008	23	Salem	CARL	A_adv	HOU	504	31	3	6	42	21	10	64	79	.289	.399	.419	.818
2009	24	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	269	17	3	7	42	4	8	29	25	.358	.451	.553	1.005
2009	24	Omaha	PCL	AAA	KCR	53	6	0	0	5	0	2	4	14	.298	.358	.426	.784
6 Seasons						2187	120	18	43	264	106	41	213	344	.294	.381	.445	.826

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/1/2009.

How we got Parraz for Tyler Lumsden is something I'll never be able to figure out. Apparently the Astros messed us swing (it must have been really messed up for the Royals to fix it). Parraz was a third round pick out of college in Nevada in 2004. As you can see, he's posted pretty good OBP as he's climbed the ladder. Last year, he was out of his mind in AA and then went to AAA where he got a handful of at bats before getting injured. He plays OK defense in the outfield and has good athleticism. It's a shame he got hurt because with a good showing at AAA he could have thrown his name in the ring for 2010 with the big club. Instead, we will have to wait until 2010 to see how he does at AAA. He could be a mid season call-up.

#11--Chris Dwyer--LHP--Age:21

Dwyer was the Royals 4th Round pick out of Clemson. He was a draft eligible freshman because he was held back twice--making him 21 during his first year of college. His status gave him more leverage than most college players as he had the option of going back to school for 1, 2 or even 3 more years. He was considered a sandwich/2nd Round talent but slipped because of his bonus demands. The Royals eventually signed him for about $1.5 million. Dwyer has a fastball in the low 90s that can get up to 94, a excellent curve that is his best pitch and a good changup. He got 8 innings at Idaho Falls where he gave up 12 hits, 8 walks, and 15 k's. He has very good stuff but hasn't harnessed it yet. He will turn 22 as the season starts which is good (low mileage arm, less time in the injury nexus) and bad (not much room for projection). I wasn't really nuts about giving him that much money (I would rather have had HS C Max Stassi who Oakland took with the pick after ours) but he is a high ceililng arm who could go to Burlington next year.

#10--John Lamb--LHP--Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	18	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rook	KCR	3.80	14	68.2	1.121	7.5	1.0	2.6	9.3	3.55
2009	18	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	3.95	6	27.1	1.207	7.9	1.3	3.0	8.2	2.78
2009	18	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	3.70	8	41.1	1.065	7.2	0.9	2.4	10.0	4.18
1 Season						3.80	14	68.2	1.121	7.5	1.0	2.6	9.3	3.55

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/1/2009.

John Lamb was projected to be a high draft pick coming out of high school in California. But he had a car accident that didn't allow him to pitch his Senior season. The Royals took him in the 5th Round--knowing he wouldn't make his pro debut for a year (a little bit similar to Keaton Hayenga) and signed him for a very reasonable $160,000. He has a good fastball and decent curve but still needs to work on his change. He commands his pitches well. He pitched better as the season went on last year--starting in short-season Burlington and moving up to Idaho Falls. He was young for a 2008 HS draftee and he could still grow and add velocity. He should start 2010 in Low-A Burlington.

#9--David Lough--OF--Age:23

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	21	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	92	6	0	2	12	6	1	4	13	.337	.380	.477	.857
2008	22	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	543	21	11	16	62	12	11	35	70	.268	.329	.455	.784
2009	23	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	250	15	2	5	30	6	4	12	34	.320	.370	.473	.843
2009	23	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	253	13	2	9	31	13	4	12	30	.331	.371	.517	.887
3 Seasons						1138	55	15	32	135	37	20	63	147	.299	.351	.475	.826

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/1/2009.

David Lough was our 11th Round pick in the 2007 draft from Mercyhurst College. He was known as a good athlete but not much was expected from him. His first full season was 2008 when he put up some intriguing numbers at Burlington, Iowa. In 2009, he took off and established himself as a legitimate outfield prospect. He broke out at Wilmington and then was even better at Northwest Arkansas. The knock on Lough is that he may not cut it in CF so the bat needs to be very good to play in a corner outfield. Lough has trouble with lefties (much more so at AA than A). He doesn't walk a ton but he did increase his walk percentage once he got use to AA. He's got good speed. I'm guessing he'll got to Omaha for 2010. He's been a surprise so its hard to know what to expect but he reminds me a little bit of Seth Smith.

#8--Jeff Bianchi--SS--Age:23

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	18	Royals	ARIZ	Rook	KCR	122	7	4	6	30	5	2	16	22	.408	.484	.745	1.229
2006	19	Royals	ARIZ	Rook	KCR	54	4	0	2	6	1	1	9	3	.429	.537	.667	1.204
2007	20	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	403	19	0	2	36	15	4	25	72	.247	.296	.315	.611
2008	21	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	431	34	5	10	61	13	4	20	95	.255	.290	.442	.732
2009	22	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	245	12	2	4	28	12	2	20	47	.300	.360	.427	.787
2009	22	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	297	17	1	5	42	10	4	19	58	.315	.356	.441	.797
5 Seasons						1552	93	12	29	203	56	17	109	297	.288	.339	.434	.773

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/1/2009.

Our 2005 2nd Round draft pick, Bianchi has resurrected his prospect standing after a strong 2009 season. After a huge 2005 debut, he struggled with injuries for the next couple of years. Bianchi got off to a good start with Wilmington and then was promoted where he was absolutely on fire for his first few weeks at AA. He seems to be a streaky hitter. I've heard that his defense is fringy and there is precious little when it comes to minor league fielding data. Over at minorleaguesplits.com they have something called Total Zone (which is supposed to be a poor man's version of UZR)--he rates very favorably at SS. The Royals have had him spend some time at 2B but I think he needs to be given every opportunity to stay at SS. Bianchi is a very good prospect and really marks the point in the list when we get to really good prospects. Reid Brignac has been hyped as a top 100 Prospect and I think Bianchi is as good but doesn't get as much respect. He plays a premium position and has an average/good bat--that is valuable and makes Bianchi worthy of being a top 100 prospect in baseball, in my opinion. Bianchi will got to AAA but, of course, the Royals have a wealth of SS talent at the big league level. He isn't the best prospect in the Royals system but he might be the most important when it comes to helping the Royals in 2011/2012.

#7--Tim Melville--RHP--Age:20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	19	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	3.79	21	97.1	1.356	8.2	0.9	4.0	8.9	2.23
1 Season						3.79	21	97.1	1.356	8.2	0.9	4.0	8.9	2.23

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/1/2009.

Melville was, at the beginning of 2008, considered the top HS prospect for that year's draft. He got out of the gate slowly during his senior season--due to several things including getting hit in the eye by a hockey puck. His stock dropped somewhat but was still considered a first round talent. He had a scholarship to North Carolina--contributing towards making him a tough sign which caused him to drop in the draft. The Royals took him in the 4th Round and eventually signed him for $1.25 million. Melville has a good fastball and curve and an inconsistent changeup. He had a good but not great 2009 at Burlington. He pitched better as the season went on and upped his K rate. He needs to reduce the walks and he'll be in good shape. He's got as much potential as any pitcher in the system, he just needs to harness his talent. He should go to Wilmington in 2010.

Royals Review Community Prospect List: #6

nwroyal — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:18:52 -0000

We move on to Prospect #6. If my math is right, whoever wins this poll should have 42% of the vote. I'll have prospects #12-7 up tomorrow.

As before, the choices are listed alphabetically and you can make your case in the comment section.

#1--Mike Montgomery--LHP--36%

#2--Mike Moustakas--3B--36%

#3--Aaron Crow--RHP--45%

#4--Eric Hosmer--1B--44%

#5--Will Myers--C--43%

Poll

Who is the Royals #6 Prospect?

Jeff Bianchi--SS

48 votes

Dan Duffy--LHP

196 votes

Chris Dwyer--LHP

6 votes

John Lamb--LHP

4 votes

David Lough--OF

10 votes

Tim Melville--RHP

118 votes

382 votes | Poll has closed

Royals Review Community Prospect List: #5

nwroyal — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:58:14 -0000

Eric Hosmer gets the #4 position with 44% of the vote. I figured it would be closer but Hosmer seemed to gradually pull away.

A couple of notes: first, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus will have the Royals as his next team for a top 15 prospect list. The list itself is free and the comments are in the pay section. I'm guessing the list will come out today or tomorrow.

Later this week, I'll have prospects #12-7 up.

As before, the choices are listed alphabetically and you can make your case in the comment section.

#1--Mike Montgomery--LHP--36%

#2--Mike Moustakas--3B--36%

#3--Aaron Crow--RHP--45%

#4--Eric Hosmer--1B--44%

Poll

Who is the Royals #5 Prospect?

Jeff Bianchi--SS

37 votes

Dan Duffy--LHP

112 votes

David Lough--OF

8 votes

Tim Melville--RHP

61 votes

Will Myers--C

171 votes

Other (specify in comments)

3 votes

392 votes | Poll has closed

Royals Review Community Prospect List: #4

nwroyal — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:19:27 -0000

We move on to Prospect #4. Aaron Crow won the last poll with a healthy 45% of the vote. I've added the percentage of the vote each person on the list got--just in case you were curious how popular a choice they were. As before, the choices are listed alphabetically and you can make your case in the comment section.

#1--Mike Montgomery--LHP--36%

#2--Mike Moustakas--3B--36%

#3--Aaron Crow--RHP--45%

Poll

Who is the Royals #4 Prospect

Jeff Bianchi--SS

24 votes

Dan Duffy--LHP

59 votes

Eric Hosmer--1B

162 votes

David Lough--OF

7 votes

Tim Melville--RHP

24 votes

Will Myers--C

109 votes

Other (specify in comments)

0 votes

385 votes | Poll has closed

Royals Top 30 Prospects: #18-13

nwroyal — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 03:56:32 -0000

We now cover prospects #18-13. Some of these players (Herrera, Fortuna, and Sample for example) are in about they same place I would have ranked them last year--or perhaps they even dropped a little bit--not because their performance was bad but there is a lot of competition for spots as we move towards the top 10. That is a good sign in my opinion. Your questions and comments are, as always, welcomed.

#18--Kelvin Herrera--RHP--Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	GS	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	18	Burlington	APPY	Rook	1.42	11	8	50.2	1.046	8.5	0.0	0.9	8.0	9.00
2008	18	Burlington	MIDW	A	2.13	3	1	12.2	1.184	9.2	0.0	1.4	5.0	3.50
2009	19	Burlington	MIDW	A	0.00	1	1	5.0	0.600	5.4	0.0	0.0	1.8
3 Seasons					1.22	26	15	111.0	1.045	7.6	0.1	1.8	8.4	4.68

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/23/2009.

Herrera was a guy I picked for a breakout performance last year. Unfortunately, injury derailed his entire season save for one start. He had some kind of arm trouble, I'm not exactly sure what it was but he didn't have surgery. The Royals have a lot of pitching depth but Herrera's ceiling is as high as anyones. He doesn't have a typical pitchers frame--he's only 5'10". He has a low 90s fastball that can reach 95 with good movement. He has a pretty good curve and a good changeup--and he commands his pitches very well and gets a lot of ground balls. He turns 20 on New Year's eve so he still has plenty of time to develop. My guess is he goes back to Burlington, Iowa and joins a ridiculous rotation (Lamb, Sample, Hayenga, Herrera, Fortuna?) but he could move quickly. Keep an eye on him--the biggest question for him is health (if I knew he were 100% healthy, I would probably bump him up 5 slots)--but if he is well, he will zoom up this list.

#17--Carlos Fortuna--RHP--Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	18	Royals	ARIZ	Rook	5.82	11	38.2	1.500	9.1	1.2	4.4	9.5	2.16
2009	19	Burlington	APPY	Rook	4.09	13	50.2	1.480	8.9	1.2	4.4	7.6	1.72
3 Seasons					4.60	34	121.1	1.409	8.5	1.0	4.2	8.3	2.00

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/23/2009.

Another young international signee. Fortuna won't turn 20 until right before the season starts. Like Herrera, he has a good Fastball--better velocity than Herrera but not as good command. His curve and changeup are inconsistent. As you can see, he gives up the base on ball more often than he should. Think of him as a raw high school draft pick. He will probably (as I mentioned above) be a part of a very talented Burlington, Iowa staff in 2010. Success for him will mean limiting the walks and using his stuff to put away more hitters.

#16--Tyler Sample--RHP--Age:20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	19	Royals	ARIZ	Rook	KCR	9.00	10	27.0	2.185	10.0	0.0	9.7	13.0	1.34
2009	20	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	2.84	12	50.2	1.066	6.0	0.4	3.6	7.8	2.20
2 Seasons						5.07	24	81.2	1.494	7.8	0.2	5.6	9.7	1.73

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/23/2009.

The Royals picked Sample out of Cherry Creek HS in Colorado. He's a 6' 7" righty who has already had Tommy John surgery as a high school sophomore. He struggled mightily in 2008 but made big progess in 2009 as the Royals worked on fixing his mechanics. As you can see, his control improved greatly and he was much less hittable. His strikeouts dropped but I think he'll get some of those back as he puts together his delivery. Sample has an above average fastball and curve. He needs to develop an effective changeup. Did I mention the Burlington, Iowa pitching staff he could be a part of in 2010 is pretty talented?

#15--Louis Coleman--RHP--Age:23

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	IP	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	23	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	1.26	10	14.1	0.767	5.0	1.9	10.0	5.33
2009	23	Burlington	MIDW	A	2.45	4	7.1	0.409	2.5	1.2	7.4	6.00
1 Season					1.66	14	21.2	0.646	4.2	1.7	9.1	5.50

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/23/2009.

Something about KC teams and LSU. The Royals took Louis Coleman in the 5th Round of the 2009 draft. Coleman had a 2.93 ERA in his Senior season while pitching 129IP. He's a little older than most college draftees (he was a Senior pick and was even a draft eligible Sophomore). He has a good fastball/slider combo that he commands very well. He has a 3/4 delivery that makes him very tough on right handed hitters. He was practically unhitable in his professional debut showing that he can get strikeouts and ground balls. He also didn't give a homerun in his pro debut. The Royals used him in relief and fast tracked him. He could begin 2010 in AA or even AAA. If he does well there, he could be on of the first 2009 draftees to make it to the big leagues.

#14--Johnny Giavotella--2B--Age:22

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	20	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	310	18	2	4	26	10	7	25	34	.299	.355	.421	.776
2009	21	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	561	24	8	6	52	26	9	66	54	.258	.351	.380	.731
2 Seasons						871	42	10	10	78	36	16	91	88	.273	.352	.395	.748

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/23/2009.

Johnny G. was our 2nd Round pick in 2008 out of the U. of New Orleans. He signed quickly and got in 300 ABs in High-A posting a 776 OPS. In 2009, he went to Wilmington and posted a 731 OPS--so he was worse in 2009, right? He increased his walk rate, decreased his K rate, and had the same ISP. He looks to have suffered from Wilmington's home park and a low BABIP. I'm a big believer in his bat but the biggest question is his glove. He's got decent speed so perhaps he can improve. He better because there aren't many other places for him on the diamond beyond 2B. I wouldn't be surprised to see him blow up at AA this year with a strong OBP and decent power. Some similar strengths/weaknesses to Alberto Callaspo. Another note: he was a relatively young for a college draftee so he will be just 22 to start the season.

#13--Kila Kaaihue--Age:25

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	21	High Desert	CALL	A_adv	KCR	605	31	2	20	90	2	1	97	97	.304	.428	.497	.925
2006	22	Wichita	TL	AA	KCR	395	15	0	6	45	0	1	49	73	.199	.303	.300	.602
2007	23	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	253	8	0	9	42	1	0	35	38	.251	.360	.420	.780
2007	23	Wichita	TL	AA	KCR	288	13	0	12	40	0	0	41	40	.246	.359	.447	.806
2008	24	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	376	11	0	26	79	3	2	80	41	.314	.463	.624	1.086
2008	24	Omaha	PCL	AAA	KCR	139	4	0	11	21	0	0	24	26	.316	.439	.640	1.079
2009	25	Omaha	PCL	AAA	KCR	555	27	1	17	57	0	1	102	85	.252	.392	.433	.825
8 Seasons						3732	161	6	130	520	8	8	585	620	.260	.383	.446	.829

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/23/2009.

Kila was our 15th Round pick from a Hawaii high school in the 2002 draft. He had the talent to go higher but he was thought to be a touch sign. Kila's dad, Kala, played in the minor leagues for 11 seasons for several different clubs. For the first several years of his career, Kila showed he could get on base but his power was not quite where you would want a 1B/DH to be. Everything changed last year as he dominated at AA/AAA hitting a combined 37 HRs. In 2009, Kila got off to a strong start at Omaha showing the same on base skills and good power (but not quite as good as 2008). He struggled the 2nd half of the year--his power dropped--but he also was quite unlucky on ball in play in the 2nd half (BABIP of around .230).Even with the tough 2nd half, the Royals had nothing to lose by calling him up in September--but, of course, they didn't. Kila will be 26 by Opening Day 2010 and I think he will be on a major league roster for someone. Kila doesn't field well and struggles against lefties but he does get on base and have power--two things the Royals desperately need. Dayton Moore has said he is focused on pre-arbitration eligible talent--it would be nice to see him take a relatively safe gamble and give Kila a shot. The other option is to shop Kila for some other young, affordable talent. Either way, I think he helps a major league club in 2010.

"Royals going hard after Erik Bedard"

nwroyal — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 03:26:41 -0000

"Royals going hard after Erik Bedard"

Jeff Passan towards the end of this Yahoo article mentions that we are pushing hard for Bedard on a one year incentive laden contact.

Royals Review Community Prospect List: #3

nwroyal — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:20:53 -0000

So Mike Moustakas wins with same percentage of votes (36%) that Montgomery won with. We now move on to #3. I dropped David Lough from the poll since he got scant support last time. As before, the choices are listed alphabetically and you can make your case in the comment section.

via royals.mlblogs.com

#1--Mike Montgomery--LHP

#2--Mike Moustakas--3B

Poll

Who is the Royals #3 Prospect?

Jeff Bianchi--SS

36 votes

Aaron Crow--RHP

189 votes

Dan Duffy--LHP

38 votes

Eric Hosmer--1B

81 votes

Will Myers--C

71 votes

Other (specify in comments)

2 votes

417 votes | Poll has closed

Royals Top 30 Prospects:#24-19

nwroyal — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:54:37 -0000

We cover prospect #24-19 in this installment of the our Prospect List. I decided to drop adding pics because it was such a headache last time. We've got some high ceiling players on this section--if even one of them came close to reaching their potential, that would be a good ratio. As was mentioned in the Community Prospect List comments, it can very hard to know how to rank Carlos Rosa--25, signed for $25,000 and ready to contribute in the big leagues as a reliever vs. Chelsor Cuthbert--16, signed for $1.5 million and miles away from the big leagues but with a huge ceiling. Rosa might be a free agent by the time Cuthbert is contributing--but I've got Cuthbert a couple spots ahead--I wouldn't argue with anyone who wanted to flip them around. I tend to think of a minor league system in tiers--with players within the tier as pretty much interchangeable. Anyway on to the rankings:

24--Derrick Robinson--CF--Age:22

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	20	Wilmington	A_adv	556	497	22	8	0	34	62	17	51	97	.245	.316	.322	.638
2009	21	Wilmington	A_adv	571	522	19	5	5	47	69	23	35	90	.239	.290	.324	.614
4 Seasons				1798	1615	59	19	8	131	186	61	143	342	.243	.307	.318	.624

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/14/2009.

Robinson is an important figure in the recent history of the Royals draft--even if he never develops into anything special. Robinson was ranked as a 1st Round talent, but he fell to the 4th Round of the 2006 draft because he had a football scholarship to the University of Florida to play cornerback. The Royals gave him $850,000 to sign and not play football. That began a trend of the Royals being willing to dish out big bucks to players who dropped in the draft due to signability (Melville, Esposito--even though he didn't sign, Myers, Dwyer, Simmons, etc.). It was and is a good strategy and got better as the Royals have (since Robinson) stayed away from giving big bucks to players who main tool is speed. As to Robinson as a player, the Royals have claimed from the day he signed that he was more than just a speed guy--that they believed he could and would hit. Speed is his calling card and with that comes what is supposed to be very good defense in CF. But the bat hasn't developed like the Royals had hoped. 2008 showed some positives as he hit 245/316/322 as a 20 year old in Wilmington. Those weren't good numbers but they showed some progress from previous numbers (especially with taking a walk). This year, however he regressed (as you see above). His power dropped slightly and he took fewer walks. It actually looked worse at the end of July, then in August he hit 311/362/513 and hit 5 home runs (more than doubling his career total). The past couple of years, he's posted BABIP that are rather low for someone with his speed. He'll go to AA next year where it would be good to see him restore those walks and flash his power more consistently.

23--Blake Wood--RHP--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	GS	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2007	21	Burlington	MIDW	A	3.03	7	7	35.2	1.290	8.1	0.8	3.5	6.6	1.86
2008	22	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	2.67	10	10	57.1	0.820	5.0	0.5	2.4	9.9	4.20
2008	22	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	5.30	18	18	86.2	1.477	10.0	0.7	3.3	7.9	2.38
2009	23	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	5.83	17	13	78.2	1.525	10.5	0.9	3.2	5.6	1.75
4 Seasons					4.37	73	68	333.2	1.295	8.7	0.6	2.9	7.8	2.69

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/14/2009.

Wood was our 3rd Round Pick out of Georgia Tech in 2006. He had a disappointing Junior season but the Royals saw something they liked and drafted him. He seemed like a bit of reach when drafted but pitched well to begin his pro career. When he's going good, he's got good stuff--mid 90s FB, good curve and good change-up. He pitched pretty well until he hit AA in 2008 and has struggled there the past 2 seasons. Wood has a hard time keeping it together and thus makes him inconsistent. He also struggled with injury last year. In the AFL this fall, he has again followed good outings with horrible ones. He could eventually move to the bullpen but he has the build of a workhorse starting pitcher and I think he'll get one more chance to show himself in the rotation. He could get a chance to prove himself at AA again or perhaps he will get a pass and go straight to Omaha.

22--Hilton Richardson--CF--Age:20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	18	Royals	ARIZ	Rook	218	191	2	3	4	15	12	7	20	66	.199	.295	.304	.599
2008	19	Burlington	APPY	Rook	229	205	7	5	1	16	10	7	17	61	.229	.293	.327	.620
2009	20	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	190	166	12	2	1	17	20	1	19	44	.313	.392	.428	.819
2009	20	Burlington	MIDW	A	28	26	2	0	0	2	2	0	1	10	.154	.185	.231	.416
3 Seasons					685	607	24	10	7	52	44	16	58	185	.247	.323	.354	.677

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/14/2009.

Richardson was our 7th Round pick out of highschool in the Kirkland, WA area. Richardson is a crazy good athlete who was also pretty raw when we drafted him. His ceiling is as high as any position player in the Royals system. He didn't hit very well in his first two season in short season ball. As you can see, last season he posted much better numbers at Idaho Falls. There are some encouraging signs there: decent walk %, not too many strikeouts, 20/1 SB/CS but his numbers were inflated by a unsustainible .431 BABIP. His power hasn't come around yet but he is big and strong enough that it should eventually be there. He'll play OF next year for Burlington, probably splitting time in CF with Alex Llanos. The Midwest League should be a very good test to see how many skills Richardson has acquired.

21--Carlos Rosa--RHP--Age:25

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2007	22	Wichita	TL	AA	4.36	21	17	1	97.0	1.485	9.4	0.7	4.0	6.5	1.63
2008	23	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	1.20	8	8	0	45.0	0.822	6.0	0.4	1.4	8.4	6.00
2008	23	Omaha	PCL	AAA	4.09	11	11	0	50.2	1.243	9.1	0.5	2.1	7.8	3.67
2009	24	Omaha	PCL	AAA	4.56	43	0	7	71.0	1.423	8.7	0.8	4.1	10.1	2.50
7 Seasons					3.62	151	99	8	583.2	1.383	9.2	0.5	3.3	7.1	2.19

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/14/2009.

Carlos Rosa has been around forever. We signed him for $25,000 in 2001 and he methodically made his way through the system. He missed 2005 with Tommy John surgery. He was supposed to be the player we traded for Mike Jacobs last year but the Marlins got nervous because Rosa was struggling with a forearm injury. The Royals moved him to reliever this past year. He's got a very good mid-90s fastball and a slider to go with it. He was unlucky last year with the Omaha as his FIP was 3.80. He pitched especially well in the 2nd half of the year. He gets a good amount of ground balls to go with an impressive amount of strikeouts. He should be a key part of the Royals bullpen in 2010.

20--Yowil Espinal--SS--Age:18

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	17	Royals	ARIZ	206	4	3	4	19	13	2	2	42	.240	.248	.348	.596
2009	18	Burlington	APPY	271	9	4	7	23	20	14	22	53	.246	.327	.407	.734
2 Seasons				477	13	7	11	42	33	16	24	95	.243	.292	.380	.672

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/14/2009.

Espinal was given $250,000 to sign in 2007. In 2008, he was in the Arizona League and struggled--most alarming was that he walked twice in over 200 plate appearances. As you can see, he made great strides in 2009 walking 22 times in 271 plate appearances. He also increased his power. Those are the types of things you are looking for a toolsy international signee to do. His numbers even appear to be a little depressed by being unlucky on BABIP. The question is if Espinal can stay at short as his body grows. If he stays at SS, he could be very valuable as he could have an above average bat. He could be a lot higher on the list at this time next year. If he performs well in the spring, he could be Burlington, Iowa's SS in 2010.

19--Cheslor Cuthbert--3B--Age:16

Going into 2009, the most the Royals had ever given an international free agent was $300,000. They paid out $600,000 for Korean teenage catcher Shin Jin-Ho earlier this year. Then for the July 2 international signing day they dished out $1.5 million for the Nicaraguan 3rd baseman. There have been only about ten players to play in the big leagues from Nicaragua and most of those have been pitchers. Currently, Everth Cabrera--SS from the Padres is the only current big leaguer from the country. Giving that much money to a player from a country that is still somewhat anonomous to scouts is either a cunning way to find a hidden talent or crazy way to blow valuable resources. Cuthbert is supposed to already be be big and strong--and show the potential to hit for average and power. I've heard conflicting reports about his defense: some say he can handle 3rd and others say the Royals expect him to move to a corner outfied position. If the Royals like his progress, he might play in the Arizona League next summer.