SB Nation User Blog: nwroyal

Royals Top 30 Prospects: #30-25

nwroyal — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:26:48 -0000

Here we are: the Top 30. I plan to go through them 6 at a time and then do a wrap up/overview of the Royals system. Since we are doing only 6 at a time, I'm able to squeeze in some previous years' stats as well as a few pictures. I'll go a little more in depth for my comments.

Disco Hayes via royals.mlblogs.com

30-Salvador Perez--C--Age: 19

via chukarscorner.files.wordpress.com

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	19	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rook-A	396	360	20	3	2	45	0	2	25	40	.267	.313	.356	.669
2009	19	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	259	233	14	3	2	38	0	1	19	25	.309	.357	.421	.777
2009	19	Burlington	MIDW	A	137	127	6	0	0	7	0	1	6	15	.189	.230	.236	.466
3 Seasons					590	529	26	5	3	71	1	4	37	60	.278	.329	.363	.692

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/10/2009.

The Royals signed Perez out of Venezuela in 2006. He got about 100 ABs in the Arizona Rookie League in 2007 where he struggled with an 599 OPS. In 2008 he split time between Burlington, NC and Idaho Falls-- where he still got less than 100 ABs (due to injury, I believe) but he posted a healthy 891 OPS. Last year, he began the season at Low-A Burlington, Iowa where he predictably struggled (he was only 18 when the season began). But when Idaho Falls began their season, he was moved there where he put up respectable numbers. Perez has grown into a big kid (he's 6' 3') but the limited reports I've heard on his defense have been good. Perez has decent power and is willing to take a walk. With Will Myers in the fold, where he starts 2010 is a little murky--I"m still guessing he goes to Burlington, Iowa where he will probably struggle some (especially early in the season) but I think Perez has a chance to be an above average catcher in the big leagues.

29-Greg Holland-RHP--Age:23

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	22	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	3.42	32	4	84.1	1.245	7.5	0.4	3.7	10.2	2.74
2009	23	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	3.18	29	8	45.1	1.434	9.1	0.4	3.8	9.7	2.58
2009	23	Omaha	PCL	AAA	7.00	6	2	9.0	1.889	12.0	2.0	5.0	1.0	0.20
3 Seasons					3.55	89	20	172.1	1.335	8.1	0.5	3.9	9.6	2.47

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/10/2009.

Holland was drafted in the 10th Round of the 2007 out of Western Carolina. He was a successful college reliever who got a good amount of strikeouts and kept the ball in the park but also gave up a fair share of walks. After he was drafted the Royals sent him to Idaho Falls where he pitched well, posting an ERA in the mid 3s. In 2008, he skipped Low-A Burlington and went directly to Wilmington where he pitched 84 valuable innings. The test would be how he would do in the hitter friendly Texas League. What was encouraging to see was that the percentage of batters he K'd stayed the same, the HR rate stayed the same, the walk rate stayed the same (it wasn't great to begin with but at least it didn't go up), his GB% went up. He gave up more hits but that is due mainly to big spike in BABIP. He struggled in limited innings at AAA. I know his FB is a good pitch for him but I'm not familiar with his offspeed stuff. In 2010, he'll have a chance to prove himself and, if he does well, could be in KC later in the summer where he could be a valuable reliever.

28-Disco Hayes-RHP--Age:26

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	25	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	1.64	40	12	65.2	0.944	6.7	0.5	1.8	5.3	3.00
2009	26	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AAA-AA	3.05	44	6	85.2	1.319	10.5	0.3	1.4	4.3	3.15
2009	26	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	0.98	18	3	36.2	1.064	8.1	0.2	1.5	4.2	2.83
2009	26	Omaha	PCL	AAA	4.59	26	3	49.0	1.510	12.3	0.4	1.3	4.4	3.43
5 Seasons					2.65	199	45	329.2	1.192	8.9	0.3	1.9	5.8	3.13

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/10/2009.

Most of you know the Chris "Disco" Hayes story--undrafted out of Northwestern in 2006 the Royals signed him as a free agent. He's called "Disco" because his sidearm/submarine fastball velocity stays in the 70s. He gets groundballs like crazy and has consistently posted FIPs in the mid to low 3s. Last year he got off to an amazing start at AA with a sub-1 ERA. He was pretty lucky. Then he was promoted to AAA where his ERA ballooned to 4.59. What changed? He was actually walking fewer people, K'ing the same amount, HR rate about the same, GB rate dropped but was still good-- it was BABIP: from 269 at AA to 367 at AAA. Look at his combined line for last year and that's just about right--everything pretty much evened out. So don't be down on Hayes because of his AAA ERA. He still looks like a good reliever for us if we are smart enough to hang onto him. He is going to need a good infield defense behind (cough-SS-cough) to succeed. He will probably start 2010 at AAA but if he pitches well, there is no reason he shouldn't be called up soon.

27-Patrick Keating--RHP--Age:22

via chukarscorner.files.wordpress.com

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	22	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rook-A_adv	KCR	1.64	24	9	33.0	0.939	5.7	0.3	2.7	12.8	4.70
2009	22	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	0.00	2	1	2.2	0.375	3.4	0.0	0.0	3.4
2009	22	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	1.78	22	8	30.1	0.989	5.9	0.3	3.0	13.6	4.60
1 Season						1.64	24	9	33.0	0.939	5.7	0.3	2.7	12.8	4.70

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/10/2009.

It's quite a feat for a 2009 20th Round draft choice to be this high on the list. And Keating was a true 20th Round pick, not some talented player who dropped due to bonus demands. In his Senior year at U. of Florida he had an ERA of over 5 and struck out about 6/9ip. Apparently the Royals thought they could refine his delivery, drafted him, and all the sudden he's throwing in the mid 90s with good breaking stuff. He was pretty much unhittable in Idaho Falls striking out over 13/9ip and also got a 56% ground ball %. The spike was so dramatic that its hard to know what his ceiling is--if his stuff stays that good, then you could be talking closer. I'm anxious to see how he does vs. more advanced hitters. He could start 2010 in the same place he ended 2009: Wilmington.

26-Tim Smith-OF--Age:23

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	22	Clinton	MIDW	A	TEX	538	480	25	4	13	70	21	9	33	81	.300	.359	.450	.809
2009	23	3 Teams	3 Lgs	AA-A_adv-Rook	TEX	311	271	15	0	8	53	17	2	24	45	.321	.392	.465	.857
2009	23	Bakersfield	CALL	A_adv	TEX	138	120	5	0	4	19	7	1	10	20	.333	.413	.475	.888
2009	23	Frisco	TL	AA	TEX	160	139	9	0	3	32	8	1	14	21	.309	.380	.439	.819
3 Seasons						945	832	45	4	22	132

Questions about Analyzing Defense

nwroyal — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 15:15:06 -0000

I've been looking at Alberto Callaspo's UZR numbers and I've got some questions about how to use UZR to project for the coming year.

Fangraphs has been reviewing the best fielders from 07-09--pointing out that one season of UZR is equivalent to about 1/3 season of batting (in other words, it takes 3 seasons of UZR to have a good grasp on a players ability. Last year Callaspo was not good (-7.3), in 2008 he was above average (+1.9 although it was in about 1/4 the innings). Should we view Callspo as a -5.4 (by adding 08 and 09 together)? Should we give the 09 numbers more weight?

Or looking at Yuniesky Betancourt. His UZR has gone: 07=-1, 08=-13, 09=-21. For 2010--should we project an average of those 3 numbers or do we follow the progression and project an unfathomable -30?

I know there probably aren't concrete answers to this but I'm curuious to hear people's opinions.

Royals Top 60 Prospects: #37-31

nwroyal — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:42:18 -0000

More photos » by Alessandra Tarantino - AP

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Does anyone else feel like the MLB Playoffs are starting to feel like the NBA playoffs? I don't mind all the games--but all the days off are painful. The offseason has officially now begun and with fresh rumors that there might be prospects involved in the Teahen trade. Let's just say if there are prospects involved from the Royals, they better be ones I've already written about (both for the sake of making a good trade and of not messing up my list). We finish up the bottom half of the Royals Top 60 Prospects. Next week I'll do #30-26 of the Royals Top 30.

Here's a review of the previous players listed:

60--Dylan Lindsay

59-Blaine Hardy

58-Barry Bowden

57-Rowdy Hardy

56-Matt Mitchell

55-Ryan Wood

54-Eduardo Paulino

53-Nick Van Stratten

52-Deivy Batista

51-Sean McCauley

50-Fernando Cruz

49-Eric Basurto

48-Pedro Nivar

47-Cole White

46-Jarrod Dyson

45-Jerico Blanco

44-Shin Jin-ho

43-Manny Pina

42-Ben Theriot

41-Dusty Odenback

40-Jason Taylor

39-Geulin Beltre

38b-Ed Cegarra

38a-Jose Bonilla

37--Malcolm Culver--3B--Age-19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	19	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rook	KCR	234	203	4	3	3	24	8	4	26	41	.222	.315	.315	.630
2009	19	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	214	184	4	3	3	19	8	4	25	37	.217	.316	.321	.637
2009	19	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	20	19	0	0	0	5	0	0	1	4	.263	.300	.263	.563
2 Seasons						264	229	4	3	3	24	9	4	29	54	.218	.313	.301	.614

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/6/2009.

We drafted Culver in the 8th Round of the 2008 draft out of HS in California. Culver is projected to hit for power and already shows a pretty good eye at the plate. He has the tools to be a pretty good defender at 3rd base. If he does well in the spring, he could go to Low-A Burlington, Iowa in 2010.

36--Alex Llanos--CF--Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	--	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rook	KCR	274	252	11	3	3	30	18	9	15	77	.266	.309	.369	.678
2009	--	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	139	130	5	1	0	14	3	4	5	42	.223	.252	.277	.529
2009	--	Royals	ARIZ	Rook	KCR	135	122	6	2	3	16	15	5	10	35	.311	.366	.467	.833
2 Seasons						497	455	19	4	3	47	32	13	28	140	.229	.278	.308	.585

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 11/3/2009.

We drafted Llanos in the 6th Round of the 2008 draft out of Puerto Rico. He was known as a toolsy, raw kid who had some potentail with the bat. He was relatively young--playing the 2008 Arizona League at the age of 17 and posting an uninspiring 471 OPS. In his second go around in Arizona he did much better. He struggled again when he was promoted to Idaho Falls. He's still very young (won't turn 20 until next September) and I'm guessing he'll get a second go at Idaho Falls this coming year.

35--Chris Nicoll-RHP--Age:26

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	25	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-AAA	KCR	4.47	39	1	88.2	1.410	9.1	0.8	3.6	7.7	2.17
2009	25	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	3.50	33	1	61.2	1.395	8.8	0.6	3.8	8.5	2.23
2009	25	Omaha	PCL	AAA	KCR	6.67	6	0	27.0	1.444	10.0	1.3	3.0	6.0	2.00
5 Seasons						3.83	123	5	397.0	1.234	8.0	0.9	3.1	9.4	3.06

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2009.

This is an agressive ranking for Nicoll--but I've always liked him. Nicoll was our 3rd round pick in 2005. He has battled injuries in the past and has been moved to the pen for the past couple of years. He pitched pretty well at AA last year but struggled at AAA. He's a flyball pitcher--so he will be suseptible to the HR. I think he can go back to AAA in 2010 and, if he performs well, could contribute later next year.

34--Brandon Sisk--LHP--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	23	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	1.92	45	21	61.0	0.787	4.4	0.3	2.7	11.5	4.33
2 Seasons						1.75	67	23	143.2	0.974	5.5	0.3	3.3	11.4	3.50

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2009.

The Royals recently signed Adam Frost--a 22 year old SS-from the independant leagues. Perhaps they were inspired by the success Brandon Sisk has found. We signed Sisk out of the Indy Leagues in 2008 and he been very successful so far. I've heard that his stuff is not overpowering but he seems to get the most out of it. He is pitching in the Arizona Fall League where he has pitched well in 8ip which bodes well that he could continue his success in AA in 2010.

33--Crawford Simmons--LHP--Age:19

We drafted Simmons in th 14th Round out of HS in Georgia. We signed him away from Georgia Tech. We gave him way over slot money ($450,000) because he has an average fastball but a couple of potential plus pitches in his curve and his change-up. The Royals seem to be targetting young pitchers who have several good pitches as opposed to one great one. As I've said before, I like this strategy. Simmons is a good prospect if he has an average pitch and 2 plus pitches. If Simmons' fastball gains velocity as he fills out he could become a very good prospects. The odds are against that but its worth half a million to gamble. Simmons will play short season ball next year.

32--Juan Abreu--RHP--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	24	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A_adv-AA	KCR	3.67	36	16	41.2	1.512	5.8	0.9	7.8	11.4	1.47
2009	24	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	1.69	20	12	21.1	1.031	3.4	0.4	5.9	11.8	2.00
2009	24	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	5.75	16	4	20.1	2.016	8.4	1.3	9.7	11.1	1.14
4 Seasons						4.90	92	25	220.1	1.530	8.0	0.7	5.7	10.9	1.90

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2009.

He certainly does strike a lot of people out. But he walks a bunch of them too and he's a flyball pitcher and he's not terribly young. He was pretty lucky with homers at Wilmington and not so lucky at Northwest Arkansas. He's the kind of pitcher you are afraid the second he leaves this team will figure it out and become some other teams Robinson Tejeda. He'll probably go back to AA in 2010 to see if he can harness his stuff.

31--Tug Hulett--2B--Age:26

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	26	Omaha	PCL	AAA	KCR	442	374	27	4	11	53	9	2	58	79	.291	.384	.473	.858
6 Seasons						2833	2333	146	25	39	287	102	31	421	517	.284	.394	.418	.812

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2009.

Will this guy ever get a chance? He gets on base, has some power, doesn't kill you at 2nd base--that is valuable. We picked him up from Seattle last Spring and he got a cup of coffee last year with the big club. With the possible addition of Chris Getz--along with Callaspo/Bloomquist, it looks like 2nd base is going to be pretty packed. My guess is that we send him along to another club where he becomes a useful player.

Royals trade Mark Teahen to White Sox for Chris Getz & Josh Fields

nwroyal — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:21:52 -0000

Saw it on MLBTraderumors from this link to NY Daily News

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chris Getz	107	375	49	98	18	4	2	31	30	54	25	2	.261	.324	.347

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Josh Fields	79	239	29	53	5	2	7	30	25	76	2	3	.222	.301	.347

The Royals shed Teahen's probable ~$3-4 million-ish salary. Getz & Fields are both league minimum guys.
Presumably Fields will compete for the DH job. He really shouldn't be in the field. Then again, would a Fields at 3rd, Gordon at 1st, scenario stun you?
Not immediately sure what to make of Getz. His (small sample) defensive numbers aren't good. Maybe he's a depth guy, maybe they have a plan to use him. Too early to say. I know that he wasn't popular in the White Sox clubhouse after making some seemingly innocuous statements about the younger players on the team energizing the club.

Royals Top 60 Prospects: #46-38

nwroyal — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 15:57:25 -0000

The List marches on. We are starting to get to some very talented but very raw players in these rankings. We begin to see the trickles of the Royals increased investment in international scouting. The Royals have a lot of 16-19 year old players from all over world. If just one or two of them develops that will be huge. The Royals did just sign Adam Frost from the Independant League. It's really tough to know where to rank a guy like that. I would probably put him at around #45-50.

Next week we I will cover #37-30 and then we get to the Top 30 Prospects--which is where things start to get really interesting.

60--Dylan Lindsay

59-Blaine Hardy

58-Barry Bowden

57-Rowdy Hardy

56-Matt Mitchell

55-Ryan Wood

54-Eduardo Paulino

53-Nick Van Stratten

52-Deivy Batista

51-Sean McCauley

50-Fernando Cruz

49-Eric Basurto

48-Pedro Nivar

47-Cole White

46-Jarrod Dyson--CF--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	24	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-A	KCR	358	315	9	5	19	46	10	32	68	.276	.345	.337	.681
2009	24	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	75	67	2	1	5	9	4	5	14	.343	.397	.403	.800
2009	24	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	283	248	7	4	14	37	6	27	54	.258	.331	.319	.649
4 Seasons						917	801	22	11	62	107	24	84	170	.270	.343	.325	.668

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

The Royals have been trying to talk this guy up but I don't see it. He has no power, doesn't get on base, isn't particularly young. The Royals say his defense is amazing in center. I have two problems with that: first, I'm not sure any amount of defense if going to make up for a guy who isn't even Gathright at the plate. Second, why should we believe the Royals can properly evaluate defense? He could develop into a 5th outfielder/pinch runner. He is filling in for an injured David Lough in the AFL and is not doing great there. I'm not sure if he will start 2010 in AA or AAA but if we see him playing CF for the big league club anytime soon it will mean we are in trouble.

45-Jerico Blanco--CF--Age:17

Here is our big international signing from 2008. We gave him $250,000. Blanco is a toolsy OF. He played CF last year in the DSL and hit 240/340/353 (as you will see, I'm not able to import tables from players who debuted in rookie ball last year) in about 200 plate appearances. He stole 8 bases, caugt 3 times and struck out 40 times. I like this kid-even though he is miles away from being ready--he was young last year even for the Domincan League. Hopefully, he'll be ready to come to the Arizona League in 2010.

44-Shin Jin-Ho--C--Age:17

The Royals signed their first Korean prospect last March. We gave Shin Jin-Ho $600,000 which was a record for our international signings at the time. Shin Jin-Ho is a 6' 3" catcher who is supposed to have power and is agile behind the plate. He was at instructional league this month in Arizona so hopefully we'll hear some news on how he looks. At this point, he's pretty much a mystery. I assume he'll probably debut in Arizona next summer.

43-Manny Pina-C--Age 22

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	22	Frisco	TL	AA	TEX	355	321	17	1	8	42	1	0	19	58	.259	.313	.393	.705
5 Seasons						1145	1035	54	3	12	111	5	0	62	136	.251	.308	.344	.652

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

Pina came over from the Rangers in the Dan Gutierrez trade in September. He's known as a defensive catcher who struggles with the bat. This year he got off to an amazing start at AA--with something like a 1200 OPS the first month and then returned to earth the rest of the year. He also had some crazy home/road splits--hitting much better away from home. That probably means nothing. He profiles as a backup catcher and will probably be in AAA to start 2010.

42-Ben Theriot-C--Age 21

The Royals took Ben Theriot out of Texas State in the 9th round of this year's draft. He was known as a defensive catcher--he threw out 75% of base-stealers last year in college. He got about 100 abs in Idaho Falls before getting some kind of injury. He hit 290/389/355 during that time. I think this is a kid to watch--good defense and gets on base (I know the sample size is small but he got on base at a decent clip in college). It will be interesting to see where he plays next year as the Royals have a ton of young catching--we'll see if that quantity turns into some quality.

41-Dusty Odenback-RHP--Age: 22

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	21	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-Rook	KCR	2.54	17	2	39.0	1.282	8.1	0.2	3.5	7.8	2.27
2009	21	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	0.55	6	2	16.1	1.041	6.6	0.0	2.8	6.6	2.40
2009	21	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	3.97	11	0	22.2	1.456	9.1	0.4	4.0	8.7	2.20
1 Season						2.54	17	2	39.0	1.282	8.1	0.2	3.5	7.8	2.27

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

Odenback went to UCONN and was a fringy late round prospect last year until late in the year his FB went from 90 to 94MPH. He complimented that with a decent slider and suddenly he is drafted in the 8th round. He went on to have a successful debut at both Burlingtons. He is a ground ball machine and could become a valuable reliever. He will start 2010 at either Burlington, Iowa or Wilmington

40-Jason Taylor-3B--Age:21

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	21	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-Rook	KCR	253	223	15	2	4	32	18	10	28	34	.278	.360	.417	.777
2009	21	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	23	21	1	0	2	5	1	0	2	3	.333	.391	.667	1.058
2009	21	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	230	202	14	2	2	27	17	10	26	31	.272	.357	.391	.748
3 Seasons						968	807	40	7	21	112	65	26	135	161	.255	.369	.400	.769

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

Taylor began the year suspended for drug use--again. He ended up playing most of his time in Burlington, Iowa. This was his second go at low-A and his numbers got worse. He's got talent and he's got some on-base skills but the question is if he can get his head screwed on straight. He mainly played 3rd last year but wasn't very good over there. On talent alone, he should rank higher on this list but he seems to be squandering his talent and his opportunity. Assuming he doesn't get suspended again, he should be at Wilmington next year.

39-Geulin Beltre-CF-Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	18	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	248	226	14	2	6	27	8	6	12	64	.217	.263	.376	.639
2 Seasons						350	322	17	2	7	30	14	7	18	97	.208	.255	.339	.594

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

One of our big 2007 international signings. Beltre signed as a toolsy SS but he got moved to CF as his fellow international signee--Yowil Espinal--surpassed him. He is, as the numbers show, very raw. He showed some pop last year. He will probably got to Idaho Falls next year but could get a full season assigment to low-A if performs well in the spring.

38b-Ed Cegarra-RHP-Age:20

Cegarra was an international signee from Venezuela. He pitched well at low-A in 2007 while being extremely young for the league. In 2008, he dominated low-A and was promoted to High-A where he was so-so. Cegarra missed 2009 with an injury--and in fact I forgot about him intially and added him in as "38b" on this list. When healthy, Cegarra has a good fastball/curve combo that he commands very well. He's a flyball pitcher so it will be important for him to keep the ball in the park. If healthy in 2010, he probably will pitch in Wilmington.

38a-Jose Bonilla-C-Age:21

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	20	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	387	351	12	3	5	36	6	4	29	92	.217	.281	.311	.591
3 Seasons						513	468	21	6	10	60	11	4	34	116	.248	.307	.382	.690

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

Bonilla is the oldest and most advanced of our hoard of young catchers (Bonilla, Perez, McCauley, Myers, Theriot, Jin-Ho). He needs to continue to work on his defense behind the plate but should be able to stay there--which is good because his bat probably won't play at any other position. His arm is his best defensive tool. His offensive numbers at Burlington were not very good--he needs to make more contact. He will probably start at Wilmington in 2010.

Aaron Crow's first pro start is this afternoon

nwroyal — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:31:41 -0000

Aaron Crow's first pro start is this afternoon

I'll try to post updates--the link is to the boxscore, but if you follow on gameday you should be able to see pitch speed/movement

Royals Top 60 Prospects: #53-47

nwroyal — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 02:48:22 -0000

We continue on our journey through the Royals top prospects. In case you haven't yet committed the first part of the list to memory, here are #60-54:

60--Dylan Lindsay

59-Blaine Hardy

58-Barry Bowden

57-Rowdy Hardy

56-Matt Mitchell

55-Ryan Wood

54 Eduardo Paulino

I should have the next installment at the end of this week.

53--Nick Van Stratten--RF--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	24	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-A_adv	KCR	452	394	27	5	4	52	20	8	41	51	.307	.385	.431	.817
2009	24	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	291	255	20	5	1	38	15	6	28	32	.318	.393	.447	.840
2009	24	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	161	139	7	0	3	14	5	2	13	19	.288	.371	.403	.774
4 Seasons						989	857	53	18	10	120	46	14	93	98	.310	.391	.449	.840

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

Nick grew up around KC and the Royals drafted him the 10th round out of a St. Louis community college (is that redundant?). Nick has moved slowly through the system reaching High-A this year at age 24. He has hit pretty well in the low minors but he is a year older than Billy Butler. Of course, Van Stratten can play the field and, from reports, does a pretty good job in RF. It would be great if he can start next year in AA and keep proving his bat.

52--Deivy Batista--SS--Age:21

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	21	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	276	248	8	6	13	56	9	5	19	68	.262	.309	.500	.809
3 Seasons						694	615	29	11	17	103	26	19	63	133	.270	.339	.436	.774

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

On one hand you've got a guy who plays a premium position with some power. On the other hand, you've got a guy who strikes out a ton, doesn't walk much is old for the league. I've got him ranked pretty low because I think his numbers are going to implode at Burlington next year.

51--Sean McCauley--C--Age:20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	20	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	185	167	8	1	1	14	2	0	14	29	.222	.284	.299	.584
3 Seasons						471	420	30	1	5	46	5	2	41	76	.257	.328	.369	.697

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

Catchers are notorious for having funky developmental patterns--their job on the field is so unique and demanding that they many times develop slower that other positions. McCauley was drafted in the 12th round in 2007 and hit well in Arizona in 2007. He didn't hit quite as well in Idaho Falls in 2008. And last year his numbers weren't very good before going down with an injury. He will probably go back to Burlington, Iowa and hopefully his bat will come around.

50--Fernando Cruz--C--Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	19	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	200	188	11	1	3	21	2	0	7	23	.277	.308	.394	.702
3 Seasons						604	567	25	2	4	50	5	3	18	109	.242	.274	.314	.588

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

Before Bryce Harper, there was another player who wanted to leave HS behind a year early to play pro ball. Fernando Cruz is not nearly as heralded or talented but he took his GED qualified for the 2007 draft a year early and the Royals took him. Some thought he would be a 2nd round talent had he waited for the 2008 draft. He predictably struggled in his first couple of years but last year showed some promise with his bat. The Royals moved him to Catcher from 3rd Base. I haven't heard how his defense is. I'm guessing he will go to short-season Idaho Falls next year.

49--Eric Basurto--RHP--Age:23

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	23	3 Teams	3 Lgs	A-A_adv-Rook	KCR	0.76	15	2	23.2	1.225	5.3	0.4	5.7	14.5	2.53
2009	23	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	0.84	8	2	10.2	1.312	6.8	0.8	5.1	13.5	2.67
2009	23	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	0.00	1	0	1.1	0.000	0.0	0.0	0.0	20.2
2009	23	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	0.77	6	0	11.2	1.286	4.6	0.0	6.9	14.7	2.11
3 Seasons						2.00	53	2	85.2	1.307	6.8	0.3	4.9	9.7	1.96

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

You don't replace Ross Gload. Eric Basurto just needs to play his game and Royals fans need to understand that you can't compare him to a former great. Basurto was our return for sending Gload to the Marlins (and eating his salary). As you can see from his stats, he K's a bunch of folks and walks a bunch of folks. He's got a fastball and that's about it. He won't make it without developing a secondary pitch.

48--Pedro Nivar--SS--Age:17

Pedro Nivar was a relatively big international signing for us in 2008. He got six figures--which is now chicken feed on the international market. He's a SS and he posted a 233/380/291 line in the Dominican Summer League in 109 plate appearances after being injured. There isn't a lot to take away from this other than the 380 OBP is nice. Its not often you see an OBP 90 points higher than SLG--but there it is. He's toolsy and young and there is a something there to dream on at least. Best case scenario is that he plays next year in the Arizona Rookie League.

47--Cole White--RHP--Age:21

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	21	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rook-A	KCR	1.67	20	3	37.2	1.407	7.4	0.5	5.3	8.6	1.64
2009	21	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	1.29	12	3	21.0	1.333	6.4	0.4	5.6	9.9	1.77
2009	21	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	2.16	8	0	16.2	1.500	8.6	0.5	4.9	7.0	1.44
1 Season						1.67	20	3	37.2	1.407	7.4	0.5	5.3	8.6	1.64

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

Cole White was our 6th Round draft choice in 2009 out of U. of New Mexico. He's a reliever with a sinking fastball in the 92-95 MPH range. He has developed a slider to go with it. Since he's a reliever he might be able to get by on those two pitches. He obviously needs better control but he has swing and miss stuff and could develop into a valuable reliever.

Royals Top 60 Prospects: #54-60

nwroyal — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 20:12:45 -0000

Well, here we go. I plan to rank 60--count 'em--60 Royals prospects. We will start at the bottom and work our way up. I was originally going to do prospects #46-60 in this post but for some reason the SB Nation format starts messing up at a certain point and won't let me squeeze all the reports in. So we will do #54-60 and the next installment should come at the beginning of next week. When we get to #30 we will slow down, go more in depth and do just a handful of players at a time. Some of these bottom guys there is precious little info on. So bring on your questions/comments/your own rankings.

60. Dylan Lindsay--RHP--Age: 17

He's not Mr. Irrelevant-he's Mr. A Long Way Off-literally and figuratively. As you read this, Lindsay is in South Africa-the country he is from-finishing high school. This spring is when the Royals scouts/staff (save the guy who signed him) will get their first live look at him. He is raw-perhaps even more raw than a Latin American talent and I'm guessing you will see Lindsay in the Arizona League in 2010.

59. Blaine Hardy--LHP--Age: 22

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	GS	IP	SO	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	--	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	2.05	36	3	92.1	94	0.953	6.9	0.3	1.7	9.2	5.53
2 Seasons						2.62	57	3	127.0	128	1.024	7.4	0.6	1.8	9.1	5.12

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

Hardy was a 22nd Round Draft Choice in 2008. A lefty with a below average FB, he makes up with a good curve and a changeup. He had a great year in Burlington last year and we'll see if he is still able to fool more advanced hitters.

58. Barry Bowden--RHP--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	24	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-A_adv	KCR	2.64	43	10	1.011	5.6	0.4	3.5	11.4	3.25
2009	24	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	4.50	5	0	1.000	7.2	0.9	1.8	12.6	7.00
2009	24	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	2.28	38	10	1.013	5.3	0.4	3.9	11.2	2.91
2 Seasons						2.26	65	17	1.014	5.7	0.5	3.4	11.8	3.47

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

We signed Bowden after he went undrafted coming out of Ole Miss in 2008. From what I've heard, his stuff isn't overwhelming but he knows how to use it. You will see me make similar comments with guys like Bowden, Hardy etc--the numbers look good at lower levels but the real test will be AA when they hit more advanced hitters in a more hitting friendly enviorment.

57. Rowdy Hardy--LHP--Age: 26

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	26	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-A_adv	KCR	2.74	23	16	0	108.1	1.292	9.2	0.6	2.4	5.6	2.34
2009	26	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	1.88	12	6	0	48.0	1.271	9.8	0.4	1.7	5.4	3.22
2009	26	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	3.43	11	10	0	60.1	1.309	8.8	0.7	3.0	5.8	1.95
4 Seasons						3.34	92	80	1	511.1	1.193	9.3	0.5	1.4	5.2	3.68

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

The Royals had Hardy drop his arm slot this year and the results were mostly encouraging. He increased his K rate and was less hittable, but his walks went up. I'm guessing the hope is that he will become more comfortable and increase his control. He is now being groomed as a reliever. The odds are still against him but he's now trying to become the left handed Disco Hayes.

56. Matt Mitchell--RHP--Age: 20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	19	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	3.47	25	21	0	116.2	1.209	8.9	0.7	1.9	5.9	3.08
2 Seasons						2.94	39	28	1	171.2	1.165	7.9	0.5	2.6	7.8	2.98

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

Mitchell was becoming an intersting prospect before injuring his elbow and undergoing surgery in August of 2008. He missed the entire 2009 season but is now throwing in Instructional League. Before surgery his FB hovered around 90 MPH and his offspeed stuff was OK. Not sure if he will start '10 in Wilmington or Burlington--but the competition for a rotation spot will be fierce at both those places.

55. Ryan Wood--SS--Age: 22

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	22	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-Rook	KCR	223	189	9	1	2	18	5	3	29	35	.206	.315	.296	.612
2009	22	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	109	92	4	0	0	6	4	3	16	15	.174	.303	.217	.520
2009	22	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	114	97	5	1	2	12	1	0	13	20	.237	.327	.371	.699
1 Season						223	189	9	1	2	18	5	3	29	35	.206	.315	.296	.612

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

The Royals drafted Wood this year as a Senior out of U. of EastCarolina. He had a great Senior season posting an 1112 OPS. He played 2B in college but the Royals want to give him a shot at SS. His numbers weren't great at both Burlingtons--but his stats actually improved moving to Low-A and it looks like he was somewhat unlucky. We'll see how his glove develops at SS but the bat might give him some value.

54. Eduardo Paulino--RHP--Age: 24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	23	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	3.63	26	22	0	138.2	1.212	8.4	1.0	2.5	5.5	2.15
4 Seasons						3.43	74	62	0	362.1	1.148	8.1	0.8	2.2	6.2	2.84

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

The Royals signed Paulino out of the Dominican in 2006. I don't have much info on his stuff. His numbers have been pretty good--but it is a little alarming to see his K rate dropping as he moves up the system. Also, his numbers away from Wilmington were not very good.

An Offseason Process I Could Trust

nwroyal — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:33:45 -0000

So this is what I am left with: doomed to follow a baseball team that uses pre-modern techniques for assessing players I am forced to come up with my own alternate reality that I hope will happen. I will list some groups of players that I would look to acquire at each position we need. I admit the plan is not "sexy" but it better positions us for 2011/12 and should improve the club next season.

1. Trade for Chris Dickerson

CF-options include:

Mitch Maier

Coco Crisp--FA

Chris Dickerson-CIN

Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner--NYY

Carlos Gomez--MIN

Felix Pie-BAL

Chris Young-ARI

This is my top priority in the offseason. I like Pie but I think Baltimore is going to want more than I want to give. I'm really high on Dickerson who would provide good D and gets on base and has been pushed out by Drew Stubbs in Cincy. Dickerson is this year's Franklin Gutierrez. I would put the full court press on Dickerson. Would Kyle Davies get it done? I might be willing to offer Bannsiter if Davies isn't enough.

2. Sign Austin Kearns to a 1 year/$2 million deal with 2011 team option

RF options include:

Jose Guillen

Mark Teahen

Mitch Maier

Austin Kearns-FA

Eric Hinske-FA

Xavier Nady--FA

Jeremy Hermida--FLA

Elijah Dukes-WAS

Hermida is intruiging as he is still young but would cost too much and his D is not good. I lean toward Kearns who has had a rough go in DC. Kearns turns 30 next season, plays good D, his bat might bounce back and he would probably sign for $2 million.

3.Sign Kelvim Escobar to a 1 year/$3 million deal. Sign Jose Contreras to a 1 year/$2 million deal.

Starting Pitchers options:

Eric Bedard

Ben Sheets

Kelvim Escobar

Jose Contreras

There are tons of reclamation projects out there and I'm all for seeing if we can snag one. Kelvim Escobar has been mentioned and that would be great. In researching this, I found a guy that I really thought was flying under the radar: Jose Contreras-living in Colorado now I watched as the Rockies picked him up and he looked really good coming out of the pen. His FIP last year was decent and he could be dirt cheap. I say sign him and see if he can start and worst case scenario, stick him in the bullpen. We could just sign one of these guys and throw Hochevar back out there.

4. Trade for JR Towles

C options

John Buck

Brayan Pena

Miguel Olivo

JR Towles-HOU

Chris Snyder-ARI

I played with the idea of offering Arizona Farnsworth in exchange for C Chris Snyder (Snyder's got a pricey contract) but I really like the idea of going for Towles-offering Houston Mark Teahen. Towles is young and Houston has Jason Castro coming up. Its not the end of the world if we end up with Buck as our catcher and Pena backing him up.

5. Release Jacobs and Guillen

Who knows, maybe someone is willing to pay $1 million of Guillen's salary-but probably not-so just release him and Jacobs (and Buck if we trade for Towles) and move on.

Lineup:

CF Dickerson

2B Callaspo

LF Dejesus

1B Butler

3B Gordon

RF Kearns

DH Kaaihue

C Towles

SS Betancourt/Aviles

Bench:

Aviles

Bloomquist

Maier

Pena

Greinke

Meche

Bannister (unless I have to give him up to get Dickerson)

Escobar

Contreras

Bullpen:

Soria

Tejeda

Cruz

Farnsworth

Hochevar

Rosa

Find a left hander

This team has dramatically better outfield defense. The infield defense is still suspect but my hope is that Gordon can be average at 3rd and then Aviles can overtake Betancourt at SS or Bianchi can help out at mid-season. If worse come to worse we could do the Callaspo to DH or 3B. The offense should be better than last years and there is some pitching depth. I would expect this team to win 75-78 games and would enter 2011 with a lot of money coming off the books. So there are my thoughts on moves that will never happen. Thanks for indulging this catharsis for me.

Recapping my predictions for the 2010 Royals Prospects

nwroyal — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 12:57:37 -0000

Back in March, I gave my prediction of what the Royals Top 20 Prospects would look like at the end of the season. So before I start into my real 2010 Royals Prospect List, I thought I would look back and see how my prognostications went. I'll repost the article with my new comments in bold and italics.

1. Eric Hosmer 1B 10/24/1989 B-T: L-L

The #3 overall pick and receiver of the largest draft bonus in Royals history, Hosmer's bat was called one of the best HS bats in the past 20 years. The Hoz wreaked havoc in the Midwest league for 3 months. He hit 311/382/538 and was leading the Midwest league in homeruns with 20 when he was promoted to Wilmington in the middle of July. He hit 273/342/471 in 145 at-bats there. He hit well in the playoffs as Wilmington won the Carolina League championship. Hosmer looks like one of the most complete hitters in the minors and should hit for a high average and huge power. His arm may be wasted at 1B but the Royals are looking to expedite his path to the big leagues. They could challenge him with an assignment to NW Arkansas in 2010.

In Retrospect: The Hoz didn't exactly dominate the Midwest League--he had a bad 1st month then had a good 2nd month, got hurt and struggled and was starting to do well until the Royals promoted him to Wilmington where he struggled again. I still have a lot of faith in his ability and think he will bounce back next year but right now he clearly isn't one of the most complete hitters in the minors.

2. Mike Moustakas 3B 9/11/1988 B-T: L-R

Depending on the day you ask, you will get different answers from me about who is the Royals Top Prospect. While I gave Hosmer the nod, Moustakas has more defensive value and should help sooner. Moustakas started off slow again (but nearly as bad as 2008), this time in Wilmington, playing for the Blue Rocks hitting 245/320/400 in April. He caught fire from then on and finished with a line of 290/370/490. He has played good defense which will present a good problem to have when is ready to challenge Alex Gordon at the big league level. He could have moved up AA towards the end of the year but the Royals' brass wanted to give him and Hosmer to play together. Moustakas will start next year at AA with a promotion to AAA later in the year. The Royals don't like players to skip levels and are mindful of their last young 3^rd base prospect who skipped AAA and his growing pains.

In Retrospect: On the bright side, he hit better in April than I predicted. But it was mostly downhill after that. The power was alright but getting on base was a problem. I don't know what the future holds for Moose but I'm more down on him than I am on Hosmer.

3. Kentrail Davis CF 6/29/1988 B-T: L-R

The Royals took Davis with the 12^th overall pick in the 2009 draft. As a draft eligible sophomore and Scott Boras client, he had more leverage than your normal college player. Davis made the Royals 4^th straight 1^st round Boras pick. The Royals actually signed him early-there were a couple of hours left until the deadline on August 15^th. He went to Low-A Burlington where he hit 306/367/489 in 62 at bats. Davis' bat is special as he should hit for a high average, good power and draw an above average number of walks. He defense is CF is not great but the Royals hope to work with him there and his arm is a tick below average. Being 5' 9" and a CF who can hit, one can't help but draw Kirby Puckett comparisons. He should start next year at Wilmington.

In Retrospect: At the time I made this prediction, Davis was raking. He slumped in the later part of the year and slid to the supplemental 1st round where the Brewers grabbed him. Of course, we ended up with Aaron Crow--and even though Crow wasn't my 1st choice, he's a better prospect than Davis and I didn't think we'd get a shot at such a good player with the #12 overall pick.

4. Daniel Gutierrez SP 3/8/1987 B-T: R-R

Danny Gutierrez showed why the Royals have been so excited about him. He started at Wilmington and had a 2.59 ERA in 74 innings with 92 Ks and 21 walks. He was promoted to NW Arkansas and had 3.13 ERA in 52 innings with 55k and 9 walks. He has always had a great fastball/curveball but his changeup improved this year. He could have an outside shot of being with the big club in 2010 but will probably get some more seasoning in Omaha. He has a shot at being a #2 starter for the big club at some point.

In Retrospect: Funny how things work out, huh? Gutierrez had a nightmare year--from injuries to run ins with the law to run ins with Royals management. We ended up selling low on him to the Texas Rangers. He would not be the Royals #4 prospect were he still in the organization but he remains an arm with good upside if he can get his head screwed on straight.

5. Kelvin Herrera SP 12/31/1989 B-T: R-R

19 year olds who pitch in full season ball, have outstanding stuff and command of it are a rare thing. Kelvin exploded this season going to Burlington, Iowa and posting a 2.38 ERA in 92 IP with a WHIP of 1.02, 98K's and 21 walks. He has a low-mid 90s fastball with a good change up. He tightened up his curveball this year but it is the thing he will need to work on in the future. Herrera is 5' 10" so his stuff may not get much better but it is already plenty good. He knows how to pitch and trusts his stuff. The last time the Royals had a pitcher who was this polished/this young his name was Greinke.

In Retrospect: Pitched in all of one game this year. Has some arm problems that the Royals think will heal without surgery. Hopefully will pitch next year and is plenty young enough to bounce back.

6. Mike Montgomery SP 7/1/1989 B-T: L-L

Mike Montgomery had a great first full season in Burlington. He posted 2.84 ERA in 124 innings with 119 K's and an excellent amount of groundballs. He has started to put some weight on his frame and increased velocity into the low 90s last year. He already has a good changeup that could become very good. I am a big fan of young pitchers with good changeups. The question is whether his palm ball which functions as a curveball will be effective against more advance hitters. Hard throwing lefties who get ground balls and have good control are a very good thing and Montgomery will pitch in Wilmington in 2010.

In Retrospect: Now the list gets more fun. I thought I was being aggressive with my prediction but he surpassed that by posting ERAs in the low 2's at both Burlington and Wilmington. Instead of Wilmington in 2010, its probably NW Arkansas and he has vaulted himself into one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

7. Dan Duffy SP 12/21/1988 B-T: L-L

Dan Duffy, after an amazing 2008 in Burlington followed it up with a very good campaign with an uber-talented Wilmington ballclub. He posted a 3.45 ERA in 117 innings for Wilmington with a 1.21 WHIP and 124 K's. He's got a good fastball and a good changeup and a curveball that is improving. If he can consistently command all three pitches, he will have a chance to be an excellent pitcher. He'll turn 21 at the end of 09, so he still has plenty of time to learn his craft.

In Retrospect: Again, did better than I predicted with an ERA a shade under 3 in 126 IP (I predicted 117) with a 1.16 WHIP (vs. 1.21) and 124K (125K). Will be interesting to see how he does in a hitter friendly Texas League.

8. Tim Melville SP 10/9/1989 B-T: R-R

Melville went into his senior year at HS rated the #1 prep player in the country by Baseball America. He had an inconsistent senior year but his stuff improved by the end of the season. He was looked at as a mid-1^st round pick. But he told teams that he was committed to college-except for one team apparently. The Royals took him in the 4^th round in 2008 and it was soon an open secret that he would sign for as the August 15^th deadline approached-which he did for $1.25 million. Melville stayed in extended spring training but finally appeared in Low-A in June. He had an 3.88 ERA in 68ip with a 1.28 WHIP, 71 Ks and 31 walks. His fastball is a plus pitch and he has a good curveball and an inconsistent changeup. He could be an above average starter and should get more innings next year in Wilmington.

In Retrospect: My prediction was pretty good--he pitched more innings that I predicted but the rates are pretty similar. Didn't dominate but did decently for a year out of high school.

9. Dan Cortes SP/RP 3/4/1987 B-T: R-R

Cortes came into the year as one of the Royals best prospects but struggled with being ineffective and injured this year. He went back to AA as a starter and had an 4.41 ERA in 41ip before straining a hamstring and missing 6 weeks. The Royals were careful with him as they brought him back, allowing him to pitch in relief where he was quite effective-posting a 2.67 ERA in 17 IP back at NW Arkansas and Omaha. It is unclear whether the move to the bullpen is permanent. If the Royals want to keep Cortes as a starter, they will probably give him some more time at Omaha. If they like him as a reliever, he could break camp with the Royals in the spring of 2010.

In Retrospect: I was right that it was a struggle of a year for Cortes. He didn't battle injury but he did have a run in with Arkansas Justice. He then was sent to Seattle for a young, dynamic SS. He struggled initially after the trade but pitched quite well down the stretch. I'm sure he won't come back to haunt the front office.

10. Johnny Giavotella 2B 7/10/1987 B-T:R-R

Johnny Giavotella is bringing the world together-scouts and sabermatricians alike love this kid. The scouts love him, not for his classic baseball build, but he is an old time ballplayer-a scrapper, full of (dare I say it): grit. Stats minded folks love his results: a middle infielder who can hit, draw a walk and doesn't kill you with the glove. In Wilmington this year he hit 304/366/440 with 19 steals and getting caught 7 times. He looks like an ideal #2 hitter and will start 2010 in NW Arkansas but could get promoted in mid-year.

In Retrospect: Johnny G's numbers don't look great at first blush but underneath his batting average are some really intriguing stats. His defense is not very good but he can get on base.

11. Jeff Bianchi--offensive minded SS

In Retrospect: One of my better calls as Bianchi had a good year.

12. Salvador Perez C-young catcher with offensive potential

In Retrospect: Still has offensive potential but struggled in full season ball.

13. John Lamb LHP-08 draftee who recovered from injury to show potential

In Retrospect: Did just that and looks to be a good prospect.

14. Blake Wood RHP-inconsistent starter who could be above average starter

In Retrospect: Injured most of the year, disappointing numbers when he did pitch.

15. Derrick Robinson CF-fast CF whose bat is making incremental steps forward

In Retrospect: Hit horribly all year--except for the month of August.

16. Keaton Hayenga RHP-another high ceiling pitcher who is recovered from injury

In Retrospect: Pitched OK but the Ks were lacking

17. Joe Dickerson CF/LF-David Dejesus lite

In Retrospect: Got injured and then promptly retired. Weird.

18. Tyler Sample RHP-great stuff, Royals are reworking his delivery

In Retrospect: Came back with good numbers this year.

19. Guelin Beltre. SS-Latin American middle infielder

In Retrospect: Should have picked his International Free Agent counterpart--Espinal

20. Carlos Fortuna RHP-good stuff, young

In Retrospect: Still has good stuff but has gotten a year older in the past 12 months.

Recap:

I whiffed pretty good on the top 5- I expected more from Hoz and Moose but they will still be top 5 prospects for the Royals. I did much better on the bottom half of the top 10. This exercise shows that it is really hard to predict a season's worth of prospects. I got some right (Montgomery, Bianchi, Lamb and Cortes were probably my best calls) and looked ridiculous on some others. I predicted the Royals would have a top 5 farm system. There's no way they are there now--we are probably about the same as last year--maybe a tad better (I'm guessing #10-12) depending on how far you mark down the supposed big bats.

Program note: Next week I should start rolling out the top prospect list, starting at the bottom and doing a few each week.