SB Nation User Blog: nycredsfan

An Interesting Take on the Run Scored vs. Run Saved argument

nycredsfan — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:02:23 -0000

An Interesting Take on the Run Scored vs. Run Saved argument

A guy at VivaElBirdos did an interesting study on whether a run scored is really equal to a run saved. Spoiler Alert!!! Not always.

This was posted at BtB too, and I thought given this team's current makeup/roster issues, it is an interesting discussion.

Mike Leake Interview

nycredsfan — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 17:02:11 -0000

Mike Leake Interview

Happy Black Friday! For those of you who are nursing your turkey hangover by doing something other than fighting the crowds at 5 a.m. in order to save $3 on a toaster, here's a short little diversion for you.

The Reds first round pick this year had a great debut in the Arizona Fall League, and somebody over at Project Prospect caught up with him for an interview. I like this kid.

Baseball America releases their Reds top 10 prospects list

nycredsfan — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:02:13 -0000

Baseball America releases their Reds top 10 prospects list

Guess who's #1? (hint: his name DOESN'T rhyme with Bonder Garbanzo)

This in an interesting list....thoughts?

If you have a BA subscription JJ Cooper, who made the list, is hosting a chat at 2:30 E.T.

Farmers Only: Winter League Update and some notes

nycredsfan — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:38:57 -0000

Chris Heisey loves the Arizona air. Does that bode will for his chances in spring training?

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Many of you thought the Arizona Fall League ended with the "Rising Stars" game last weekend, but it actually goes until the end of next week, and our boys in 'zona have just kept on representin'. This list isn't exhaustive, I've only put up stats, through yesterday, of the players of interest playing in fall/winter leagues. (If you really want to know how Lew Ford is doing in Venezuela you can look it up)

Arizona Fall League	PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Yonder Alonso	75	.290	.333	.406	2	6	8
Chris Heisey	88	.308	.400	.641	5	10	20
Zack Cozart	55	.340	.393	.560	2	5	9
Venezuelan Winter League
Danny Dorn	60	.250	.400	.500	4	8	14
Miguel Rojas	57	.288	.345	.346	0	5	10
Dominican Winter League
Juan Francisco	76	.227	.325	.455	3	10	20
Kevin Barker	84	.329	.409	.421	1	8	15
Mexican League
Adam Rosales	128	.300	.400	.427	2	18	11
Arizona Pitchers	IP	ERA	K	BB	H	HR	AVG
Mike Leake	11.2	2.31	9	2	17	0	.340
Brad Boxberger	11.1	8.74	11	6	12	2	.286
Sean Watson	10.2	8.44	12	6	20	2	.377
Logan Ondrusek	9.2	10.24	8	1	19	4	.388

Dominican League
Ben Jukich	15.2	2.87	12	5	20	1	.323
Enerio Del Rosario	11.2	2.31	6	2	10	0	.222
Sam LeCure	7.1	8.59	6	5	12	0	.353

Zack Cozart hasn't been in a game since last week and isn't listed on the Peoria Saguaros roster anymore. I can't tell if he's injured or just decided he wanted to go home.
Todd Frazier starts play in the Puerto Rican League next week. I'm giddy.
Please note the K/BB ratio for Francisco. I know it's only the DWL, but the kid is showing signs of being able to take a walk.
I'm really intrigued by Del Rosario. He flew up through the system this season, and ended the year in AAA. His groundball to flyball ratio was 3.23 during the season and is 2.22 in the DWL. Sounds like a good fit for GABP.
It's still a small sample size, but Chris Heisey keeps making a case for himself.
Darnell McDonald is tearin' up Mexico too, but since he's not on the 40 man roster anymore I didn't feel compelled to include him. Katie Couric is happy about this.

JJ Hardy traded to the Twins

nycredsfan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:55:47 -0000

JJ Hardy traded to the Twins

Well, the dream is dead, folks. Looking more likely every day that Paul Janish is your opening day SS.

Mark McGwire hired as Cardinals hitting coach

nycredsfan — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:26:47 -0000

Mark McGwire hired as Cardinals hitting coach

Submitted without comment.

Heisey Kickin' Butt in the AFL

nycredsfan — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:28:09 -0000

Heisey Kickin' Butt in the AFL

Chris Heisey is tearing up the Arizona Fall League so far. Through 6 games and 26 plate appearances he's posted a line of .522/.593/1.000. He's walked 3 times and only K'ed twice. 6 of his 12 hits have been for extra bases. Our opening day left fielder?

The Farmies, part 2

nycredsfan — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:45:31 -0000

No, it's the FarMIES...but they're all welcome anyway

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Welcome to day two of the Farmies. Yesterday brought us some major power, defense, and rising prospects. Today we celebrate the real cream of the crop of the Reds minor league system.

Comeback Player of the Year

Homer Bailey

Let's review:

2007-Bailey makes his debut to delirious fan support and is anointed the Great Hope. He proceeds to struggle a bit the rest of the year.

2008-He's beaten out for a rotation spot by Johnny Cueto and has a very rough year between AAA and the bigs. In the offseason he almost gets traded straight up for Jermaine Dye.

2009-He learns a bit of humility, a bit of control, and the split-finger and dominates AAA. He comes up to Cincinnati and has a positively Arroyo-like end to the season. His last 9 starts he goes 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA, striking out 53 in 58 innings and holding opponents to a .631 OPS against.

Last offseason many had given up on him. As of this minute he might be our second best starter. Welcome, GoodHomer. We hope you're here to stay.

Honorable Mention:

This goes to Justin Lehr for two reasons: 1) He was pitching in Korea last year, and this year posted a 2.51 ERA and .89 WHIP in 75 AAA innings, and 2) Teaching Homer the splitter. Big ups, Justin. I wish you the best of luck, just not with the Cincinnati Reds.

2010 Breakout Candidate

Devin Mesoraco

Wait a minute, you say. How do you give it to a guy who hit .228 in high-A this season? Here's why: His BB rate, LD% and ISO all improved dramatically, and his average was weighed down by a .276 BABIP despite the high line drive rate. AND he was only 20/21 playing in the FSL, which makes everyone not named Jay Bruce look bad the first time round. Minorleaguesplits.com's luck factor says he should've put up a line of .279/.356/.452. I'd take that from my catcher. Most importantly, perhaps, his defense behind the plate is reported to be much improved. Next year will be his 3^rd full pro season, and I could see him cruising through Carolina and being a late season call-up to AAA, with people debating whether to make him or Ramon Hernandez the starter in 2011.

Honorable Mention:

Juan Duran-Next year you can start to judge him by his stats, which I'm guessing will be much better.

Minor League Manager of the Year

Rick Sweet

Last year's IL manager of the year is this year's RR Manager of the Year. I can't imagine how hard it is to manage a AAA team with so much personnel change during a season, but Sweet kept the Bats rolling all year to an 84-58 record and the organization's only playoff berth. He owns a 387-330 record in 5 seasons as the Bats manager. The Reds record over that span is 377-433. Draw your own conclusions.

Honorable Mention

Joe Ayrault-Do you have any idea which team he manages? Didn't think so. His team was terrible, but I thought he deserved a little love anyway. His Wikipedia page has a couple fun facts.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Juan Francisco

.296/.328/.523, 29 HR, 32 doubles, 93 RBI. Would you take that line from your third baseman? How about your left fielder? That's the line El Nino Destructor put up over two levels (AA-AAA) this season. You can talk all you want about walks and strikeouts, E.N.D. won't listen. He crushed AA as a 21 year old, turned 22, decided he was a man amongst boys, and proceeded to own AAA. Then, when called up to the big club in September, as the team's youngest player (2 months younger than Bruce), he put up an OPS of 1.139 in 25 plate appearances. In that short time he was worth .5 WAR, which was more than Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Rosales, Darnell McDonald, and Drew Sutton, and equaled the value of Jerry Hairston Jr. and Ramon Hernandez......ROAR.

(Thanks to BubbaFan for the amazingly awesome pic)

Honorable Mention:

Always a bridesmaid but never a bride, Chris Heisey had this award wrapped up in late June, scuffled a bit in AAA, but still put together a good campaign. He was pipped at the post by Francisco's August and September. Final line-.319/.386/.523

Todd Frazier had another very, very solid season. If you like walks (I gaze into their eyes at night) it was tempting to give him this award. Final line-.292/.353/.474

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Travis Wood

This one's a no brainer. Over two levels (AA-AAA) Wood posted a 13-5 record. He must be good right? In addition to the all-important W-L record, Wood sported a 7.15 K/9 rate and lowered his BB/9 rate to 2.86, by far his best rate in 4 professional seasons. These two solid peripherals, combined with a low BABIP, meant that his WHIP was a sparkling 1.04. Oh, and he only gave up 6 homers all year in 176 IP. Yes, but wasn't he supported by good defenses in Carolina and Louisville? Perhaps, but his FIP was a very solid 3.28. Did I mention the kid is only 22? Stop your arguing, the kid can pitch.

Honorable Mention:

Zach (sniff, sniff) Stewart

Justin Lehr had a great year in Louisville, and taught Homer that splitter. If he had any prospect value he'd be on stage crying and thanking his agent right now.

That's all, folks. Thanks for joining us tonight, don't forget to tip your waiters, and we'll see you again next year.

Farmer's Only: The Farmies!!!

nycredsfan — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:32:12 -0000

The Beckhams love the Farmies!

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It's that time of year again! That's right, time for everyone's favorite minor league awards, the (1st annual) Farmie Awards! We'll be presenting awards for outstanding performances in the Reds minor league system during the 2009 season. We'll present the awards over two days. Today are the smaller awards (think Art Direction and Makeup Design). Tomorrow we'll get into the major prizes. As with any awards show, there will be awkward acceptance speeches, terrible clothes, and controversial winners. That's where you come in. Let me know why my picks are wrong and who the award should've gone to.

Hope you enjoy!

The Chernobyl Award: Most Explosive Power

Juan Francisco

He's averaged 25 homers and 29 doubles a year in his first 3 full pro seasons. His ISO and OPS have gone up each of those 3 seasons as well. And he's only 22 and will keep getting stronger......now about those walks.

Honorable Mention:

Nobody in the Reds system is in his league right now.

The Bizarro Big Donkey Award: Best Outfield Defense

Drew Stubbs

We got to see a taste of his defensive deliciousness over the last month and a half of the season. He was worth 7.7 runs in his short time in Cincy, and he was just continuing the magic he displayed with Louisville this season. TotalZone rated him as worth 33 Runs per 150 games for L'Ville this year. We all know it's an imperfect metric, but that's still ridiculously good. Oh, and he was voted best outfield defense, best outfield arm, and best baserunner in the International League this season. He can flat out defend.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Heisey plays a solid CF and is good on either corner.

Yorman Rodriguez is still very raw, but word is he has a rocket arm and can cover some major ground in CF.

The Maňos Del Oro Award: Best Infield Defense

Zack Cozart

Ignore all of the errors. Cozart is a slick fielder with good range and a strong arm. Some have compared him favorably to Janish, only with (hopefully) a better bat.

Honorable Mention:

Miguel Rojas-Also a good fielding SS, but until he passes Cozart on the depth chart he'll play second fiddle.

The Jeffersons Award: Movin’ On Up Fastest Through the System

Matt Klinker

Klinker, a graduate of Lakota West High School (gooooooo Firebirds!), was drafted in the 15^th round of the 2007 draft out of Furman University. He toiled mostly in Dayton last year as a 23 year old, and his prospect status was marginal. This year, however, after struggling a bit through 9 starts in Sarasota, he was promoted to Carolina where he made just 6 more starts before being promoted again to Louisville where he got 5 starts before suffering a season ending injury. He performed better with each successive promotion, striking out over a batter per inning in AAA, and could potentially be in the #5 starter conversation in the spring. Not bad for a 15^th round pick just 2 years out of college.

Honorable Mention:

23 year old groundball machine Enerio Del Rosario started the year in Sarasota as well, and finished on Louisville’s playoff roster. He has great control and almost 70% of balls in play against him were groundballs. Sounds like a good fit for GABP and our infield defense. He has an outside chance of starting next year in the Reds ‘pen.

Yorman Rodriguez…..a 16 year old in Billings? That’s craaaaaazy. If he even sniffs Dayton next year he’ll be a lock for this award in 2010.

Need to add Logan Ondrusek here. BK pointed out his somewhat meteoric rise through the system this year, earning a spot in the AFL. Plus, dude's gigantic, I'd hate to make him angry.

The WorldCom Award: Greatest Prospect Stock Plummet

Kyle Lotzkar

The Canuck with the Hammer Curve dominated low-A as an 18 year old in 2008, striking out almost 12 batters per nine innings. He was given the honor of being Red Reporter's #7 prospect last year. Doug Gray rated him #8 in the system and said he had #1 starter potential. Due to an elbow fracture that still hasn't fully healed, there are serious questions about whether he'll ever pitch again, let alone be an ace.

Honorable Mention:

Last year at this time some thought Chris Valaika would be in Cincinnati by now, but injuries and a terrible April through July has hindered his progress. He's still got value as a prospect, but given his somewhat limited defensive capabilities and questions with the bat, he's far from a sure bet now.

The Google Award: Greatest Prospect Stock Gain

Travis Wood

Selected in the 2^nd round out of high school in 2005, Wood has always carried the label of "prospect," but his first 4 professional seasons were characterized by allowing too many baserunners. This year, his age 22 season, something clicked. His BB/9 went from 4.78 last year to 2.86 this year. His average against went from .264 last year to .207 this year. This caused his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) to go from 4.66 to 3.28. Last year he didn't make the RR Community Rankings top 15, and Doug Gray listed him as the Reds 28^th best prospect. I'm guessing he'll be on everyone's top 10 list this year.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Heisey was Doug's 23^rd best prospect this year and will probably make all Reds top 10 lists this year. If he hadn't struggled a bit in AAA he would have easily won this award. As it is, he's still got a bit more to show to be considered more than a 4^th OF at the major league level.

Zack Cozart, like Heisey, would've won this award in another year. He showed improved power and plate discipline this year to go with what might be the best SS defense in the minor league system.

Better Know a Playoff Team: New York Yankees

nycredsfan — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:57:16 -0000

More photos » by Mary Altaffer - AP

Like it or not, all eyes will be on A-Rod this postseason

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Here are your Two Truths and a Lie about the New York Yankees, who had the best record in baseball at 103-59.

1) This year's Yankees team had the youngest pitching staff of any Yanks team in 14 years, and its youngest lineup of the last 6 years.

2) The team's 3 big offseason acquisitions, Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett, combined to be worth 14.7 wins above replacement, or $66.1 million. Including their huge signing bonuses, the trio earned a combined $64.5 million this season.

3) Alex Rodriguez is the primary reason the Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2000.

So what do you think? Is this their year? Will A-Roid finally show up in October? Will you be joining BubbaFan in rooting on the boys in pinstripes?

Poll

How far will the Yankees make it in this year's postseason?

Out in the divisional series

10 votes

Out in the ALCS

18 votes

Lose in the World Series

14 votes

This is their year to win it all!

22 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed