Hughes out until July

nyg2008 — Fri, 02 May 2008 05:02:23 -0000

I haven't seen this posted anywhere else on the site, so I thought I'd be the first to break the bad (or good, seeing how he has pitched recently) news. Phil Hughes is out until July:

Phil Hughes has a stress fracture in one of his ribs, and the New York Yankees’ pitcher is expected to be sidelined for at least two months.

The news comes at an inopportune time for the injury-depleted Yankees, also missing three-time MVP Alex Rodriguez, All-Star catcher Jorge Posada and reliever Brian Bruney.

[..]

Hughes, placed on the 15-day disabled list Thursday, had tests that revealed a stress fracture in the ninth rib on his right side. He will be shut down for four weeks and then re-evaluated. Cashman said the team probably can’t expect the 21-year-old right-hander back before July.

I wonder if this means Joba moves into the rotation.

Some Schedule Statistics for the NFC Championship Game

nyg2008 — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 23:31:56 -0000

There has been a lot made of New York's 10-6 record and Green Bay's 13-3 record. Green Bay fans say that the Giants are over-rated and their seven straight road wins to finish the season came against the NFL's crappy teams. New York fans say that Green Bay had a powderpuff schedule and that any playoff team would have gone 13-3 against them. I crunched some numbers and, in the flip, you'll see the results and then you can judge for yourself.

Win-loss records compiled at the end of the 2007 season shows us that the Giants played a slightly more difficult schedule on average.

New York played a roster of opponents that were 132-124 on the season. That is a .515 winning percentage.
Green Bay played a roster of opponents that were 120-136 on the season. That is a .468 winning percentage.

The Packers fared better, on average, against teams that ended the season at .500 or above.

New York played 9 games against opponents that ended at .500 or above on the season. Out of those nine games, the Giants won three and lost six.
Green Bay played 7 teams against opponents that ended at .500 or above on the season. Out of those seven games, the Packers won six and lost won.

Green Bay and New York ran even in performance against divisional opponents. While the Giants have a record that looks a lot worse, the NFC North (where the Packers play) was a far easier division in which to compete than the NFC East (where the Giants play) in the 2007 season.

New York was:

1-3 against divisional opponents that ended the season .500 or better
2-0 against divisional opponents that ended the season worse than .500
2-1 against Green Bay's divisional opponents

Green Bay was:

2-0 against divisional opponents that ended the season .500 or better
2-2 against divisional opponents that ended the season worse than .500
2-1 against New York's divisional opponents

Green Bay has a moderate edge in seasonal performance against common opponents. One conclusion to be reached from the following breakdown is that New York beat the teams it was expected to while Green Bay was more prone to upset, at least against common opponents.

New York was:

1-4 against common opponents that ended the season .500 or better
4-0 against common opponents that ended the season worse than .500

Green Bay was:

3-1 against common opponents that ended the season .500 or better
3-2 against common opponents that ended the season worse than .500

However, it may be more relevant, when comparing win-loss records, to do so at the point of a single game rather than compiling for the season. For example, San Diego started the season 1-3 but finished 10-2 to finish 11-5 on the season. Obviously, there were some improvements made to the Chargers game plan that set them on their streak. Similarly, the Giants began winning six straight following two season-opening losses. However, they were only 4-4 in the second half of the season to finish 10-6. Streaks, confident play, etc. are a big force in the NFL. These figures are called "point-of-play statistics".

In this area of point-of-play win-loss records, the Giants hold a significant edge. In general, New York won and lost games against opponents who held far better or even records.

On average, New York opponents had a .706 winning percentage at the point-of-play in games they lost; .422 winning percentage at the point-of-play in games they won.
On average, Green Bay opponents had a .505 winning percentage at the point-of-play in games they lost; .430 winning percentage at the point-of-play in games they won.

The last statistic leads us right into the next. When evaluating the strength of schedule for these two teams, there was a sneaking suspicion that Green Bay had played a season of mostly middle-of-the-road opponents while New York had played a season of good teams or bad teams. Both the end of season and point-of-play statistics bare this out somewhat.

New York played 4 games against opponents that ended the season more than one game above .500, 4 games against opponents that ended the season more than one game under .500 and 8 games against opponents one win or one loss from .500.
Green Bay played 3 games against opponents that ended the season more than one game above .500, 3 games against opponents that ended the season more than one game below .500 and 10 games against opponents one win or one loss from .500.
At the point-of-play, New York played 4 games against opponents that were more than one game above .500, 5 games against opponents that were more than one game below .500 and 7 games against opponents that were one win or one loss from .500.
At the point-of-play, Green Bay played 3 games against opponents that were more than one game above .500, 5 games against opponents that were more than one game below .500 and 8 games against opponents that were one win or one loss from .500.

Perhaps the most important point-of-play of how a team can produce under pressure is finding out how they respond against teams that are on positive or negative streaks or how they perform following exceptional or terrible performances. Dallas ended the season 13-3, which sounds great, but played very poorly in the month of December en route to losing in the divisional round of the playoffs to New York. Again, momentum and getting hot at the right time are important factors in the NFL.

New York was generally a victim of momentum. The Giants played nine games against opponents with no or positive streaks at the point-of-play, and won only three. New York was also an exploiter of momentum. The Giants played seven games against opponents with negative streaks, and won all seven.
Green Bay was a roadblock for teams looking to get on a roll. The Packers played eight games against opponents with no or positive streaks at the point-of-play, and won seven. Green Bay joined New York in kicking teams when they were down, although slightly less so. The Packers played eight games against opponents with negative streaks and won six.

SB Nation User Blog: nyg2008

Hughes out until July

Some Schedule Statistics for the NFC Championship Game