5 Reasons this season will undoubtedly be better than last

nyoregonian — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 01:21:00 -0000

In the spirit of Dave's excellent posts on the five false reasons for hope and the five resons for (cautious) optimism, I put together my own list of five reasons this season will be better than last. But I am going all-in, no equivocation, no maybes, ifs, ands, or buts. These are five reasons I am certain this season will be better. Spoiler alert - none of these reasons is the overall record. The only reason anyone thinks we might have a better record is because they only remember the lineup we finished the year with, not the lineup that got most of the wins. Anyway, without further adieu, here are my five reasons (below the jump).

1) No Lockout. Last season at this time we did not know if there would be a season. We spent the fall watching more and more of the season whittle away, wondering if there would be a season at all. Instead of waiting for the final roster tweaks we were waiting for the latest leaks on the negotiations over how much a bunch of supposed businessmen should get to tie their hands to prevent them from making stupid business moves. Maybe there were some game theory nerds who were into it, but I for one wanted basketball. This year we know when training camp will start. We will get a full preseason to wonder which long-shot can make the roster and pour over box scores to glean information about who to target in the 10th round of our fantasy drafts. I can't wait.

2 ) No punch to the gut to start the season. OK, the lockout was bad. Then it ended, and somehow, almost unbelievably, things got worse. Sure, I knew the odds of getting a full season from Oden or Roy returning to his form of old were long to say the least, but it was possible. Maybe Roy would reinvent himself as the leagues best sixth man; maybe Oden would finally give us some good games, get healthy, and re-sign, and come to dominate like he was supposed to. There was always the dream. Then, bam, in just a matter of hours that era was over. Suddenly we were just another mediocre team. Now, I hate to risk jinxing anything (particularly with poor Williams already done), but I am willing to bet that this season does not start anywhere near as bad. We will not begin this season losing our Heart and our Hope in a day.

3) No team mutiny. It is hard to remember now, but last season actually began well. Sure Felton was out of shape and playing the worst ball of his career, but the team was winning. Then it stopped. Then it began to look like the team had stopped trying. The rumors came out, and finally the coach was canned. It is never a fun to watch a team turn on its coach. Even if you think that a coaching change is needed, you want to believe that the team is going to keep trying, that even if they are not a bunch of buddies they are at least a bunch of professionals who go to work each day and try their darndest, whatever they think of the boss. Eh, not so much. On top of this, the apparent ringleader was the very man who was most stinking things up. You have to work hard to get serious consideration as a team's all time most-hated player in only one season. Felton made a very good run at it. (As an aside, how many mentions would Jamal Crawford have gotten in that debate if Felton hadn't been here?) Now I cannot actually guarantee that there will be no mutiny this year, but signs point to no.

4) Fun watching the development. We actually started rebuilding at the trade deadline last year. And the one fun thing about rebuilding is that you get to watch the kids play. You don't have to think about every little thing they might do that hurts the team as it tries to win now, you can just focus on what they do right and how that might develop. The problem last year was that our youth movement was Nolan Smith, a re-injured Elliot Williams, and Luke Babbitt. Sure, at that point I was still rooting for them to get minutes over Felton and Crawford, but basically I was watching saying, "Hey, if he keeps this up and works hard he might be a legit situational reserve some day." Cast-offs Johnny Flynn and Hasheem Thabeet gave a moment of hope, but they were short-term rentals and it quickly became clear why they had been cut loose by others. Only JJ Hickson gave some really interesting moments, but even setting aside the shortcomings he was backing up the best player on the team, so the potential upside as a Blazer was always limited. Now I don't know if Lillard will live up to the hype or if Leonard will ever develop, but I am betting it will be more fun to watch them than last years crop. Oh, and now Smith and Babbitt can actually audition for the bit parts rather than having to pretend to leads.

5) Hope. Even before the catastrophe, last season had an air of desperation. We really knew that Roy's knees were shot, and that Oden was likely gone at the end of the year even if he was able to play. We were just clinging to the last vestiges of an era that died before it was born. Even when the season started well, at best it promised a surprise trip to the playoffs and an early exit. Then there was just a holding on until the end, with no real idea what we were building toward. Now we have Lillard and Leonard, plus Aldridge in his prime and Batum and Matthews. Is there a promise of championships to come? Well, not really, but if Lillard is the real deal, and Leonard can develop, and we can add another piece in the 2013 draft... OK, I am starting to fall into the "things any team could say" trap, but if you want real reasons for hope, go re-read Dave's piece.

Anyway, there you have it, five reasons why this season will be better than last. The wins may not roll in (better draft pick...) but all in all I am willing to wager that this Excellent Adventure will be much better than last years Bogus Journey.

Consensus Mock Draft

nyoregonian — Fri, 25 May 2012 23:34:36 -0000

I decided to look across the various mock drafts to see who the Blazers would reasonably have a chance at if they stay at their current positions. With nine mock drafts (including all of the ones referenced here, plus a few others). The end result? Don't count on getting Andre Drummond (or Kidd-Gilchrist, or Robinson); they, along with the obvious Anthony Davis, were gone before the six spot in every mock draft (the one who had us picking him has been updated).

More details and the full lottery chart below the jump.

Not surprisingly, everyone has Anthony Davis at #1. After that, there is basically a four-way tie for number 2 between the players mentioned above and Bradley Beal (although two drafts have him sliding to 6th). Harrison Barnes is the near consensus sixth, but various mock drafts have the blazers grabbing someone else who better fits a need (Henson, Lillard and Rivers). After that there is, well, not so much consensus. Assuming CW is right, this suggests that keeping the 6 pick vs. 7 could be important (and trading up even to 5 might be hard). Anyway, here is the full chart for your viewing enjoyment:

Player	Average Position	Best Position	Worst Position	Times available at 6	Times available at 11
Anthony Davis	1.00	1	1	0	0
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	3.11	2	5	0	0
Thomas Robinson	3.44	2	5	0	0
Bradley Beal	3.89	2	6	2	0
Andre Drummond	4.00	2	5	0	0
Harrison Barnes	5.89	3	7	7	0
Jared Sullinger	9.67	7	14	9	3
John Henson	10.50	6	15	9	5
Perry Jones	10.78	7	19	9	4
Tyler Zeller	10.89	9	12	9	6
Damian Lillard	11.11	6	17	9	4
Austin Rivers	12.22	6	17	9	6
Jeremy Lamb	12.67	7	24	9	6
Kendall Marshall	13.13	8	19	9	6
Meyers Leonard	14.71	11	21	9	9
Terrence Jones	14.75	9	24	9	6
Arnett Moultrie	16.00	13	23	9	9
Moe Harkless	19.14	8	24	9	8
Dion Waiters	19.63	8	27	9	8

Mock drafts used: draftexpress.com, nbadraft.net, CBS Sportsline (Goodman), ESPN (Chad Ford, lottery only), Sporting News (via masslive.com), HoopsWorld.com, SB Nation (Ziller, lottery only), TheBigLead(McIntyre), The Dream Shake (Martin)

SBNation.com User Blog: nyoregonian

5 Reasons this season will undoubtedly be better than last

Consensus Mock Draft