With the waiver pickup of Delaney Rays are at 40 man roster limit, and haven't put Damon and Manny on yet.

So who gets the boot? Can't put guys on the 60 DL yet, so 2 got to go. I'm sure they'd love to trade Shoppach, but not sure about the market there - yet 5 catchers seems a bit heavy. Lobaton or Ashley designated?

Maybe Ruggiano, since he's out of options. Eckstrom or DeLaRosa out of the pen maybe. What do you think?

I'm surprised there's been little discussion of who to protect for the Rule 5 draft / add to the 40 man roster.

Sure Matt Bush and Elliott Johnson have already been added.

But who else does the group see as possible 40 man roster adds. There's a good bit of room on the roster, though spaces have to be reserved for some FA / trade additions.

To my rough estimates - don't sue me if I'm off on a guy or 2 - here's who's eligible from each full season level minors roster:

AAA - P A. Cobb, A. Rodriguez, B. Baker, P.Phillips, C. Wade (just signed) ;

          IF JJ Furmaniak (just resigned), O. Luna    C: N. Ashley, C. Albernaz

AA -  P: J. Hall, D. Newmann, R. Reid, D. De La Rosa (?), H. Rollins, R. Oliveras, J. Garcia, J. Dowdy 

         IF: M.Fields, H. Wrigley, C. Cipriano, M. Sweeney, S. O'Malley, M. Falli    OF: J. Matulia, E. Salem  

A+ -   P: F. De Los Santos, C. Andujar, D. Mavarez;    IF: G. Sexton    C: M. Thomas

          OF: K. Kang, I. Velasquez, R. Fronk    DH: S. Vogt

LA:   P: A. Suarez, J. DeLa Rosa, T. Hayes;  C: T. Francisco  IF: J. Cedeno, R. Estrada

Cobb seems like a fairly likely one, but after that?

I'm wondering what the state of the Rays' nation is within the Rays' nation

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Great stretch of the season between your team and mine, though up to now last week's series games were certainly more entertaining. Hopefully tomorrow can live up to the hype of the final matchup.

But just to get the fever going, I bumped across something I thought interesting from about a week ago in  Kevin Goldstein's Future Shock BP series.

This could get a rise from the group at DRB, I thought...

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I am merely copying an extended comment I just made in the Sean Rodriguez post. I'm sure this has been discussed before, but I just don't recall any significant discussion on it. If I've missed it, apologies to all.

"Seems if he (BenZo) can maintain the productivity in his bat in the area code of the last 18 months that this could be a no brainer. Certainly it could negatively impact mid-if depth in the short run, but this is not an org weakness at this point, and buying IF depth comes a lot cheaper than a starting 1B.

Zobrist is a solid defender at all positions, plenty tall enough for the spot – taller than Pena in fact – and has the bat production required at this point barring a serious regression. I’m sure this has been discussed here, but I don’t recall any in depth discussion.

Seems like a major upside opportunity for the org that could easily be accomodated by giving him some significant reps at the spot in ST, DHing CP instead of PtB periodically, etc. Could even make moving CP more palatable should things not pan out in ’10.

Anybody can tell me why they think this is a bad idea? It would also make for more PT for either or both of S Rod or Briggy at 2B. Would perhaps hurt Aybar’s time, but is that a critical issue? Events will dictate, of course – if BenZo is required in RF that tweaks things, etc. I could imagine some suggesting there might be some defensive inefficiency in the short run – that’s a very legitimate concern in a contention position. But the longer term approach might suggest this isn’t a bad thing to test a bit."

As of Sept. 15 standings Tampa is tied with Minnesota for the 15th and 16th best records in MLB, with the Chisox 1 GB in 17th.

Nothing to brag about, and the Rays aren't usually big FA market players, but should TB finish 16th or 17th, signing a Type A FA offered arbitration by their prior club would mean the loss of their round 2 pick rather than their round 1.  Plus the Round 1 and Round 2 picks coming from not signing them this year could perhaps make that a more realistic and cost  effective move then anticipated.

Meager possible compensation for a disappointing season for sure - but nothing wrong with looking for a small silver lining in the cloud. Can't say I can ID a possible or likely target at this point, but let your minds wander.

or to retitle it - Is Reid Brignac overrated?

There's an interesting article in BA analyzing the 2008 offensive stats of the 46 position prospects who had at least 300 full season minors ball AB's at 3 position groups - corners (LF, RF, 1B, 3B), middle (SS, 2B, CF), and C's. Good look at the details, though it's important to remember it's just the 1 season, and doesn't include defense.

Link: www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267725.html

Anyway there were 16 middle guys - 2 2B's, 4 SS's, 10 CF's. Perhaps we should expect more O from the CF's, but the key stats covered were contact rate, BB/K rate, speed score (the article explains that one), ISO power, as well as the more conventional slash numbers, and their ages as of April 1.

Briggy had the lowest speed score, BA, and OBP. He was 2nd to last - and pretty distant from the 3rd worst - in BB/K, and 3rd worst in contact rate. He was midpack in SLG, and 6th in ISO power.

And for those contending he's young, he was older than all players but Jason Donald in this group. Now he was the only IF playing at AAA but, excepting Donald, the other 2 at AA were a year or more younger, and the 2 at A+ were 2 years younger, so he's in the age mainstream here.

He seems to be struggling with the bat in ST this year - have his AB's been mostly against majors pitchers or AAA and below guys? That his only hit is a HR seems in keeping with the numbers above. His K rate is better than in his very limited majors time last year. How is he looking at bat?

It seems like an important year for him - he's been slipping offensively, and I know he was hurt last season. I've heard all here say his D is improving - certainly his fldpct. is - but the 2 younger SS listed, Andrus and Escobar, get raves about their D. Donald not so much.

What do you guys think? His offensive numbers really lagged in this group, particularly the contact / OBP oriented ones. Is he starting to project as Juan Uribe - decent fielder, all or nothing hitter?

before we know who the Rays traded for him as a PTBNL?

Maybe I missed it somewhere along the line - and I've asked it before, I know - but he was acquired on Aug. 7, so Sat. is 6 months since the trade. To my understanding that's the timeframe in which our mystery guy must be announced.

Did I miss it? Or has Baltimore just agreed to give him away? Was there just cash involved? Does anybody know? Does anybody care?

And do you expect him to move on, now that there's a bit of a reliever glut. Percy, Wheeler, Balfour, Bradford, Howell, Nelson, and out of options guys Hammel, Niemann (could be starting in short run), Cormier, plus the acquisition of Shouse. Seems some bodies have to move.

But I remain curious about the price on the original acquisition. Always thought it would be a 40 man guy or '08 draftee, hence the delay. Perhaps Eliot Johnson is looking at a new lease on life, with the plethora of minors IF's signed of late?

It all makes so much sense! Except perhaps for Baltimore. Adding in Hammel might fit better for both sides, ignoring the O's roster pitching glut.

But we've got a championship tussle continuing in your second home in Durham tonight.

I know you've all got your eyes on the big prize - but for now your guys are enjoying the splendors of the Big Apple on a day off. And what an offday day to spend there - Sept. 11. Something none of us will ever forget.

But since there's no MLB for either of us, we turn our eyes to the battle for the International League championship. Tonight's matchup - big Jeff Niemann vs. the highest paid player in AAA, Kei Igawa. The Bulls are on their last legs after dropping 2 exciting games in beautiful Scranton PA.

Should the Bulls improbably survive - I'm expecting your overrated starter to go down in flames after an Igawa kamikaze attack - the Yanks will counter top prospect Wade Davis (not so overrated) with their young but this year disappointing stud Phil Hughes. A game 5 could get ugly. The Rays will throw Mr. TBD vs the hero of all good Rays fans everywhere - Victor Zambrano. Yes, that Victor Zambrano. The gift that keeps on giving!

Good stuff in Durham. Plus Shelly Duncan and Jonny Gomes on the same field! How can you not watch that!

Amazing!

Jake McGee is scheduled for Tommy John surgery and nary a word. Folks are actually talking about today's games. Last year at this time this would have been a news flash of the highest order. I'm expecting it will be shortly knowing RJ, but in one sense it's a very positve sign of the times for you all that this isn't topic #1. Nice when it isn't just about prospects and the future isn't it.

Okay, I guess we can play this for pride and prescience.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Yeah, in the immortal words of Carl in Caddyshack, "There won't be any money in it, but on your deathbed you'll have true contentment", or something like that.

Guesses for wins in '08 for the Rays of Tampa? With the ad cash rolling in perhaps the management can toss up a little something for closest - you won't get anything from me. Or we can just play for what matters most after all - pride.

I'll get this party started with a low ball shot to get everybody riled up and participating. Hey, it's still a best ever!

75 wins.

Had to share this - hope you can find a way to appreciate it. From yankees.com

Duncan earns Dawson Award
Selected as top Yankees rookie in Spring Training

Link to whole story below - including short comment on The Slide - but the finish was the best:

"In conjunction with the award, Duncan received an engraved Burberry watch from William Barthman Jewelers.

"I always need a new watch," Duncan said. "It's funny. You can joke around and say, 'Some people say Spring Training doesn't mean anything.' Well, now it means a watch to me." "

People in NY just love this guy - he's like our Scooby-Doo... or maybe Shaggy. Goofy, but loveable. Or Matthew Lillard (again, Shaggy?) in that movie about the Cape Cod League with Freddie Prinze Jr. ... and Jessica Biel! Summer Catch - thanks Google.

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080327&content_id=2462020&vkey=spt2008 news&fext=.jsp&c_id=nyy

Don't know if any here saw this but an interesting article on total pitch count (perhaps a truer measure of arm stress) vs. IP impact on performance / health of starters. The link:

http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com/2008/02/3500-club.html

Maybe an explanation for Kaz's issues - he was 1 of 8 to exceed this mark in '07.

The author talks of how often this holds from '05 on. I looked back to '00 and it's still a strong correlation - a surprisingly few exceptions of course, and some pitchers have recovered their performance after getting back under the level. Seems to me this makes more intuitive sense than just going by IP counts.  

Since it appears to be among the last issues left, what's the opinion consensus here - Dohmann or Balfour? Balfour's got the ST performance edge, Dohmann the edge from '07 and the out of options thing playing for him.

The reserve IF seems Johnson. Have to make a roster move to elevate Cannizaro, and it seems Zobrist's job again once he's healthy. Hinske seems a certain add, Backup C is DeFelice's to lose, no? Will require another roster move to keep both - who goes? Perhaps a Dohmann waiver? Orvella or Birkins to the 60 day? I'd have just waived Orvella - since he's hurt he'd likely clear, but that could be against the rules. And where in the world is Juan Salas?

Well they're back at it tonight. Yanks conspire to dodge bullets - and Elliot Johnson - again (or wuss out if you prefer) by pitching Rasner and letting Wang pitch a AAA game. They've still got plenty of tacklers - er, minor league players - on the roster and available for the late innings and/or fireworks.

Do they have those in Tampa at Friday night games? Guess not, since the Rays play in a dome.

Oh and attached for your viewing pleasure, a link to a sequence of photos of Shelly Duncan, Borderline Criminal (he's had business cards made up), on a headfirst dive into home with the plate blocked by the Toronto (same team against whom he slid hard into 2B and kicked the SS's glove and the ball into LF last season) catcher in Spring Training where he...

extends his left hand to touch home plate and rolls away. Scored the run. Yanks won, but not on this play alone.

Good, hard, winning baseball play.

Disclaimer: No catchers were harmed in this photographic sequence.

http://emedia.thetimes-tribune.com/Blogs/SWBYankees/tabid/552/Default.aspx

It's gonna be fun talking baseball with you all this season. Hope you see the tongue firmly placed in cheek. Have fun at the game, your local watering hole or wherever. It's Friday Night Baseball in Tampa!

Couple of considerations for round 3 on Saturday when Yanks, Rays meet again in Tampa.

Both are split squading that day, so neither will have all their starters present. I'd expect Girardi will have Duncan at the other game, to cool things down. If you think that's a dodge, that's your right.

On Girardi's approach to Duncan, this from Pete Abe at LoHud.com this AM:

"Joe Girardi said yesterday that if he saw a replay that showed what Shelley Duncan did was dirty, he would have a meeting with him.

Girardi and Duncan met this morning.

Duncan said later he didn't want to talk about the meeting. Let's see, 2 + 2 ...

"We talked," Duncan said. "Whenever you have private conversations with people you like to keep it between them."

Duncan said he saw the replay. "When you do something, it never looks the same as what you thought you did," he said. "So it didn't look the same as what I thought I did."

Asked whether he would do the same thing again, Duncan paused. "A lot of time situations don't repeat themselves. ... When you have a walk with the manager he's going to give you things to learn from that's right or wrong, whatever his viewpoint is. That's what we talked about." "

I other news, the Yanks announced Igawa will start against the Rays. When (with him it may not be an if, regardless of context) he hits a batter, try to keep this in mind, also from LoHud today:

"Kei Igawa threw a bullpen before the game and wanted somebody to stand at the plate and pose as a batter.

His interpreter, Yohei Fukuda, volunteered.

You can guess what happened. Yes, Igawa hit him with a pitch."

Maybe the Yanks will rethink that plan. But it's his time to pitch. Problem is he tends to be wild high. And low. And in. And away. Hope your guys know that - they have seen him before. Again, interpret as you will.

Guess he's likes the bad boys.

Did anyone see Steve Phillips on ESPN's 2 hour Baseball Tonight show pick Delmon as his player to watch in the AL Central? Suggested he could hit .300, with 20+ HR's (he could). No Rays slamming in the discussion, in fact no Rays talk that I saw (was flipping between the show and the Honda Classic).

Gammons did suggest the Jays could be a sleeper in the East, and Phillips had the M's beating the Halos in the West. Also a segment on the Sox Yanks rivalry heating up after Hank S's comments about ESPN and the Sox this week - he's already making his dad look subtle. Apparently in response John Henry is sending him a membership card to Red Sox Nation - maybe he'll use it to get Green Monster seats for some friends or a date for his brother. A joke there you all probably won't get. I'm a little worried about those 2 at the helm. As you all know, your owner can be a problem.

Among the player guests were CC Sabathia, Glavine and Smoltz, Lee and Ausmus from 'Stros, Joba. Apparently Joba did a thing with Make A Wish bringing a family to Disney for a few days. Nice to see a very young kid giving of himself - not that he's alone in that. Glavine made an interesting comment about teams taking a power approach to the game, that the rest can be taught. I don't think he completely agrees. I didn't hang in for the team performance projections, maybe catch that on replay.

Talked about this in a diary below. Confidence here is high about the Rays win prospects.

Well, the betting is again open and you can bet the over / under on Rays wins in 2008. The number is 74 wins. The action is trending strongly towards the over - you have to bet $125 to win $100 if you take the over. For the pessimists among you (is there 1?) $105 wins you $100 on the under. Max bet is $600, so that on the over nets you $500 once win # 75 is in the books. It has to be during this season of course.

From the talk here I'd expect all to be on this investment opportunity like white on rice!

A word of caution: last year the number was 67. You might remember how that came out.

Ran across an article that listed BA's top 10 systems - from Washington Post touting Nats' improvement. Don't want to steal anyone's thunder- sure you'll have more details to come. The link:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2008/01/baseball_america_nats_farm_sys.html

On the same Google search an older - 2005 - interview with Jim Callis touched on how they choose, placing more emphasis on high impact players than depth. Makes sense. The link:

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050302105751327&mode=print

Might want to note that AL East rivals Boston and New York were ranked #2 & #5 respectively, so you're not out of the woods just yet!

Can somebody help me with this.

On what basis between now and spring would a decision on Longoria be made? What is the point of heading into spring with Longoria knowing he's got, or doesn't have a shot at, the 3B job? Are they gonna hold a mini-camp for him? Are they afraid the pressure is going to adversely affect him? This makes no sense to me, although I guess Friedamn would want to have an alternative in place if Longy isn't the guy. But isn't it his job to prepare for such contingencies anyway? Now I can understand they might want to hold down the replacement cost, but making the decision beforehand doesn't help. And shouldn't Longy have to operate under the pressure to compete?

Amazed I haven't seen comments about this yet.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/features/264575.html

BA polled AL managers on top 3 best tools in the league. Among the good news for all here:

Shields with #2 changeup.
CC #3 most exciting player.

Of course (surprise even to me) #1 defensive SS:
Derek Jeter

Maybe this proves Billy Beane is right - managers don't know jack. Or maybe guys who watch every day see some things a little differently... you decide.

In keeping with the forward thinking approach of the blog, thought I might try to spur some conversation on what the Rays should look at for the balance of this season and who might make room for the future on the '08 roster.

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