
nyyrocks29
Jul 14, 2009 Jun 02, 2012 64 30393
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Thoughts on Andy Pettitte, Yankees Starting Rotation, and Other Things
Hello, wonderful Pinstripe Alley readers. I apologize for contributing little during spring training. March is never an easy schedule for me, but thankfully it is coming to an end and the Yankees season will soon officially begin! And with that, it's time to improve all of your days with my beautiful writing and opinions!
There's been a lot of storylines in spring so far, and I'll touch on all of them in this post. First about that piece of shit known as Raul Ibanez, who's .070 batting average (or something around there) will be brought with him into the regular season as he gets regular ABs against right handed pitching! I haven't commented much lately, but I have made it a point that I think Ibanez is completely washed up at 40 years old and it ticks me off that the Yankees went out of their way to get this guy and possibly create an NL-type lineup of 8 hitters and one automatic out. The stats have been awful, and while I know it's only spring training, he was pretty bad last year too. And anybody who has watched his ABs can tell that he looks completely lost and overmatched at the plate. Oh, but he hit that home run once! So I guess it's all good right???
In all seriousness, I want Ibanez cut. I wish they'd never signed him in the first place. In all likelihood, he'll be given some time during actual games to work himself out. I wouldn't count on it, but if so I hope for the best. If he doesn't, the sooner he's gone the better.
Yankees Expect to Sign Both Ibanez and Chavez
Cool story Cashman. Get rid of one supposed scrub just to add two more.
It's Now or Never For Phil Hughes
A.J. Burnett was just shipped to Pittsburgh. I don't know how Cashman got a team to pay 13 million of his salary- whether it was his manipulative negotiating skills, or if he planted drugs in the Pirate GM's office just before they started negotiating, or if the Pirates are flat out stupid. But it's done. And unless somebody fails a physical (and I apologize, but I can't help but hoping a little bit that this happens), A.J. Burnett will not be reporting to Tampa tomorrow.
But this post is not about AJ, nor is it about those two throw in prospects the Yankees got that will likely never reach the major leagues. I remember that one of their names was Diego, because I like that name. Thats about all I'm going to remember. No, this post is about Phillip Joseph Hughes.
First, a little history review. Phillip was the Yankees first round pick back in the 2004 draft and he did nothing but look absolutely Philthy through the minor leagues. His total minor league stats as a Yankee are as follows...
Phil Hughes Minor Leagues: 32-8, 2.35 ERA, 344 innings pitched, 234 hits, 11 HR, 85 walks, 385 strikeouts
Basic stats obviously (fangraphs for minor leaguers please), but still easy to tell how Philthy he was. Those stats are good for a K/9 of 10, a BB/9 of 2.2, and a HR/9 of 0.3. It's easy to see why people expected Phillip to be an ace. Just for fun, here are a couple minor league comparisons for Phillip.
Player A: 24-9, 2.98 ERA, 296.1 innings pitched, 259 hits, 25 HR, 56 walks, 251 K, 7.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
Player B: 41-35, 3.84 ERA, 638 innings pitched, 628 hits, 54 HR, 209 walks, 417 K, 5.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
Hughes was better in the minors than both these starters in every single pitching category. The only one where he gets beaten is Player A has him beat in BB/9. Thats it.
If you're interested, here's Player A, and here's Player B. Now after the jump to continue history review...
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Thank You and Good Luck to Jesus Montero
I apologize in advance for taking up the side bar with two posts in the past hour. This is the part where I tell you I don't care! I haven't gotten the chance to write lately but I was planning on doing something like this two weeks ago. Better late than never, and I feel this is important. For those of you who don't believe in titles, this is about Jesus Montero. In case you've been living under a rock, Montero got traded to the Mariners along with Hector Noesi for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos. There's lots of reasons to like the trade and they've already been over-discussed. This post is solely about Jesus Montero.
First, here's some facts that anybody who has followed Jesus already knows. He signed with the Yankees on July 2nd, 2006 as a teenager out of Venezuela. As a 17 year old the next year he made his debut for in the Gulf Coast League, and in 2008 as an 18 year old he absolutely raked at Class A Charleston, hitting .326 with 17 home runs, 87 RBIs and somehow, 2 stolen bases.
Montero advanced through the system extremely quickly, ending up in AAA by the time he was 20 years old. You guys know the story, and the frustrations that came with watching him being "bored" in AAA while Russell Martin and Francisco Cervelli were struggling at the major league level. And then, at long last, he came up in September as a September call-up and made his MLB debut against the Red Sox at Fenway. He struck out with the bases loaded in his first MLB AB, but that was about the only time he'd struggle. He went on to hit .328 in the month with 4 home runs, including a memorable 2 HR game against the Orioles where he got two curtain calls from the Yankee Stadium crowd. And he seemed to get better as the month went on. He also got a hit in the playoffs!
This offseason, we were all looking forward to having Jesus Montero as the everyday DH, hoping he'd get enough catching opportunities and hopefully one day be Jorge Posada's successor as the Yankees everyday catcher. Then, in a stunning trade, he was gone. And now he's on Seattle.
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Yankees-Red Sox Rivalry: Less is More
Part of the fun of being a sports fan, especially when you're a fan of such a hated team, is the rivalries with other teams. As a Yankee fan, that usually means Yankees-Red Sox, and Yankees-Mets. The Yankees-Mets rivalry is completely destroyed for one obvious reason. The Mets fucking suck! They will soon be cemented at the basement of the NL East and who knows how long it will take them to get out. Thats not what this post is about though. I just wanted to bash the Mets in bold for fun.
No, this post is about the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. I'm writing this because Bobby Valentine seems to be taking every chance he gets to bash the Yankees and their fans. I don't care much about Valentine, but its got me thinking about the rivalry between the two teams. Or more so, the lack of the rivalry between the two teams. Because it seems like it's lost all of the fire it used to have.
These teams and their fans have hated each other since the Babe Ruth deal. They've had some truly epic battles and great moments. They've met in the ALCS three times and each of them had their share of great moments. From Aaron Boone to Bucky Dent to David Ortiz to Derek Jeter. But lately, especially the last two years, I've found myself just not really able to get as excited or energized for Yankees-Red Sox as I have in the past. I have a couple theories why...
1. They play each other 18 fucking times every year (everyone knows you can curse in bold)
This has been discussed, but I'll just talk about it again. Now, this was true even in 2003 and 2004 when the rivalry was at its height. But keep in mind, there are other factors. This is just a contributing one. It's also the biggest one. When roughly 1/8th of a 162 game season is against one team, it can get a little boring. ESPN and FOX try to hype these games up so much so often that it has the opposite effect. I lose interest. I still watch the games, get pumped up for a big moment, but thats because I'm a Yankee fan who watches almost every game of the entire season. But Yankees-Red Sox feels similar to Yankees-Blue Jays or Yankees-Orioles. These games used to feel special as a fan in a 162 game season. Now, they feel more like another game than anything else.
2. Red Sox Struggles
Face it (and this is a good thing, I would NOT change this just for a rivalry). The Red Sox aren't that good. They've missed the playoffs two seasons in a row, they have an inconsistent rotation and in many ways the Rays have surpassed them. Obviously, when one team in a rivalry is a 97 win team and the other misses out on the postseason, it could change interest in the rivalry. This is something I'd expect to fix itself though eventually, as early as 2012. The Sox aren't going to stay bad.
3. The Teams Have Changed
This inevitably happens with time. Teams change, personalities change. One of the things that made the rivalry so great was the fact that the teams hated each other so much. When the rivalry was at its height in 2003 and 2004, we had Don Zimmer attacking Pedro Martinez. Pedro throwing at Yankee hitters. Manny Ramirez being the world's biggest prick. Thats all but gone now. Honestly, this isn't something I'd want to change. The brawls and the hatred is intense and all, but I'd kind of rather the rivalry stick to competitive games against two great teams.
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Possible Trade Market for Starting Pitching
As we get into the offseason and we start closing in on the winter meetings, Brian Cashman has made it clear that he has one focus this offseason. And that is to increase his depth on the pitching staff. Cashman has yet to make it clear however whether or not he plans to go after a big name, or go the 2011 route and sign multiple cheap, low risk deals.
The bullpen is in excellent shape right now, as Mariano Rivera, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano are all set to return to form what will possibly be the most dominant back end of the bullpen in all of baseball. Joba Chamberlain will also return likely in the June-July range and hopefully pick up where he left off, and Boone Logan will also be coming back. There are a number of guys from last year and from the minor leagues that could also be joining the bullpen next season, including Cory Wade and Hector Noesi. I could see Brian Cashman going after a second lefty along with Logan, but otherwise I think he'll do very little to mess with the bullpen as it already is one of the biggest strengths of this team. I seriously hope Hector Noesi is given more of a chance next year, and I never want to see Luis Ayala or Sergio Mitre touch the Yankee pinstripes again.
Now, onto the rotation. The rotation currently stands as follows, in no particular order.
1. CC Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Phil Hughes
4. Ivan Nova
5. ?????????
I am the most optimistic person I know, but I simply don't believe the Yankees can expect to win a world series with the current rotation if they don't add a legitimate name. I have literally no clue what to expect from Phil Hughes, and A.J. Burnett while I personally expect a solid year out of him, still is far from a sure thing. CC is obviously a sure thing, and Nova really proved himself last season. But there are always questions with a pitcher that young who has only had one successful year.
Now, as I have made quite clear, Yu Darvish is my first choice to sign as a free agent out of Japan to fill the final rotation spot. He's very young, is an exceptional talent and if he's even half as good as scouts think he will be, he instantly turns this teams biggest weakness into a strength. However, I realize that whether or not Cashman chooses to go hard after Darvish or not (yes, I said hard), the posting system is a blind bid and there are other teams that really want him, and for good reason. It's possible the Yankees incorrectly judge the market or some rich owner is willing to pay a ridiculous amount, since the posting fee doesn't count toward the luxury tax. There is a possibility Yu Darvish does not end up with the Yankees even if the Yanks decide they really want him. Thats just a product of the posting system.
But even if they don't end up with Darvish, something still needs to be done to strengthen this rotation for next year. Yankees2 has had a series of possible free agent acquisitions this week, but aside from Wilson and Darvish there are no real eye-popping names out on the free agent market. I have no interest in Wilson, as he walks too many hitters, is on the wrong side of 30 and will cost more money and years than I think he's worth. Plus a draft pick. However, there are some intriguing names that could be on the trade market this winter, and I expect Cashman will be keeping a close eye on it throughout. The Yankees are always capable of making a big time trade at any moment with their strong farm system and a big need for starting pitching. First, lets look at possible trade chips I could see the Yankees using.
1. Jesus Montero:
Certainly not my preference to trade him for anything other than an elite pitcher, but he certainly will be the number one guy teams look at in a big time deal with the Yankees. He's been compared to Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez in terms of hitting ability, but his defensive catching has always been in question. I think he should be given the chance to catch, but with the rumors surfacing that they might sign Russell Martin to a multi-year deal (I just threw up), there might not be a place for Montero on this team. And if thats truly what they plan on doing, then trading him while his value is at its highest may be the right thing to do if the Yankees don't have a position for him.
2. Russell Martin:
Certainly a long shot, but the Yankees have hyped up his game calling and defensive and catching ability so much that maybe other teams will have bought into it and actually will give something up for him. I'd much rather do this than sign him for multiple years.
3. Austin Romine:
He's the Russell Martin if the Yankees farm system, with a reputation as an above average defensive catcher with, as of right now, a light bat. If Martin is signed for multiple years, he has no place on this team. If Montero is used as a catcher, he also has no place on this team. If Gary Sanchez turns out to be better in three or four years, then he still has no place on this team. The best option may be to trade him and see what they can get.
4. Manny Banuelos:
Please Yankees. Don't do this.
5. Dellin Betances:
I think of him kind of as the A.J. Burnett of the farm system. Terrific stuff, live fastball and a devastating curve. Walks too many hitters, also gets a lot of strikeouts. He's getting older though, and his prospect status might be going soon. I could see him involved in a trade.
6. Brett Gardner/Nick Swisher:
The only reason I bring this up is because both are young, desirable outfielders that could really help a team, and there happens to be a young Cuban outfielder on the market this year that a) the Yankees are interested in and b) he apparently can really hit. I don't necessarily support this, but if it brings in a great starter, I could see them signing the Cuban and then turning around and trading one of these guys in a deal for a starter.
7. Other Random Minor Leaguers:
The first six are the most likely trade candidates, but there are plenty of other guys in the minor leagues who may be the mid and low level prospects that also need to go into a deal that could possibly be needed to reach an agreement with some team. There's a lot, I don't feel like naming every one.
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Jesus Montero is NOT an outfielder
This will be short and quick. This has been addressed millions of times on here, and yet people still keep suggesting it. The clearest, easiest way to say this is as follows.
Jesus Montero is not an outfielder!
Why? There's plenty of reasons. He already has a position. If you don't know what it is, it can be shown by the equipment that he is shown to be wearing here and here. He is one of the slowest players in the entire organization and will not be able to move around the large outfield on a baseball diamond the same way he can move on water. Anything hit more than 10 feet away from him will be an adventure and likely extra bases. He's been a catcher ever since he entered the organization and they haven't moved him, and he has never had any experience as an outfielder. And he biggest value to the Yankees is as a catcher, where he should be. It's very rare to find a catcher in this league who can hit like Montero can. But it's easy to find a corner outfielder who can.
The same thing goes for third base. This has been suggested too, though not as much. It makes no sense to move him there seeing as they have one of the best in the league at that position locked down already, and his range and inexperience will factor in his defense at third the same way it would in the outfield.
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Let Jesus Montero Catch
As 2011 moves into 2012 and we get to opening day, we're likely going to see pretty much the same lineup that was in there during the entire ALDS. A-Rod will be back in the cleanup spot, and hopefully the Cano-Teixeira switch remains permanent and Cano stays in the 3 spot. The one change in the lineup will likely be Jesus Montero replacing Jorge Posada as he everyday DH. While I'll be thrilled if he finally gets an opportunity to play a full season in the major leagues, I'll still have one little problem with it.
Russell Martin is that problem. Now, I don't hate him nearly as much as others on here. He played great defense, worked well with the pitching staff and even swung the bat pretty well on certain occasions and certain months. So I thank him for that. However, he virtually disappeared at the plate for much of the season and the ALDS, and yet because of his "game calling skills", he'll be the starting catcher again in 2012.
Now, I am not against bringing Russell Martin to this team as a backup catcher or a part time catcher because like I said, he is a great defender and he does call good games. While that particular skill should mean nothing to whether or not a catcher plays because a) many pitchers call their own games and b) if someone truly can't call a game, every pitch can come from the bench, it still would be convenient for him and the pitchers he works with for him to get better at doing it. And Russ could help him with that, and overall just becoming a better defensive cacher. What I DON'T want is Russell Martin coming back this season as the everyday catcher (and I mean every-single-day) with Romine/Cervelli as the primary backup and we see Montero behind the plate only slightly more often than Posada was this year.
So New York Yankees, I ask you please to have Jesus Montero to at least split catching duties with Russell Martin, if not giving him the starting catching job entirely (which is what I'd prefer). Martin doesn't have to go, but Montero needs to be behind the plate for the majority of the Yankees games next year. If they expect him to be their catcher of the future, then he needs to get that major league experience catching, learning big league hitters, learning the pitching staff and getting that experience of catching a major league game. There's only so much he can learn from practicing it or bullpen sessions or games in spring training. He needs to do it during the season.
I don't want what happened this past September to foreshadow what Montero's role is going to be in 2012 and possibly beyond. I don't want him to be a full time DH who rarely catches games, and on games he does catch to be taken out by the 7th inning for more seasoned game callers. His highest value to the Yankees is as a catcher. He's proven in the minor leagues that he's capable of catching at a level that is at least serviceable. So I see NO reason why he shouldn't catch next year.
Here's a shout-out to those of you who have watched ESPN talk about Montero or listened to John Flaherty talk about him on YES. He is a catcher. The only other position he can play is first base and thats taken for a long time. Under absolutely no circumstances should he or will he play the outfield, and the same thing goes for third base. His position is as a catcher. Just because Flash doesn't get hard when Montero catches like he does when Russ or Romine catches doesn't mean that Jesus is incapable of catching in the major leagues.
Lastly, I enjoy it when homegrown players finally make it to the major leagues. I like following the minor league system, watching the draft and following a player and seeing where they end up. I did with with Jesus. I did it with Austin Jackson. I'm doing it right now with Slade Heathcott and Cito Culver and Gary Sanchez and the Killer B's and many others. I enjoy the possibility of seeing some of these players the Yankees develop through the system get the role they deserve in the major leagues. With the way everyone has doubted Montero's catching ability I would consider it a huge accomplishment for both him and the Yankees if he was the starting catcher next year. And he has the ability to do it. Joe Girardi just needs to pencil him in.
So please Yankees, I ask you one last time. I will be very unhappy if at this time next year I look at Montero's season line and I see something like 20-30 games caught and 120+ as DH. In 2012, LET JESUS MONTERO CATCH!
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What Can We Realistically Expect From A-Rod Next Season?
Alex Rodriguez just had his worst year in pinstripes and probably the worst year of his career. It ended with back to back strikeouts in huge spots, a fitting way to end a spotty, injury prone season for him. He only played in 99 games, seemed like half the time he was playing he was banged up and contributed very little from July 1st on. He finished with a WAR of 4.2, which is actually quite impressive considering the amount of games he played in. Though much of this comes from his defense, which was probably better this season than any other year as a Yankee.
A-Rod has never had a season with a WAR under 4.0 with the Yankees (including this year). He's topped 9 twice, 6 two other times and was on his way to a WAR of 5-6 in 2009 had he not played in limited games. Since he's become a Yankee he's been more productive than anybody else who has worn the pinstripes by far, and even in his off years remains one of the top players in baseball.
But A-Rod isn't the player he used to be anymore. Every year when he comes into camp, some people expect him to just get healthy and hit as if it were 2007 again. Many people (myself included) seem to select him as my prediction for AL MVP every single season, but he really hasn't come close for a while. He's 36 years old, and his best days are behind him. But the Yankees have him signed for many more years and a lot more money, so we'll still be hearing about him for a long time.
My question is, what can we realistically expect from our four legged cleanup hitter next season? He's always been around a 4 WAR player at worst and I expect at least that will continue but can we expect higher? Is he capable of producing more and staying healthy enough? Here's what I think he needs to do and what needs to happen for him to try and be as productive as possible in 2012.
1. Get Healthy
This is pretty much a given. If he wants to be productive, he can't have all these nagging injuries affecting his every swing and he needs to play everyday in order to get his timing and keep it. Sometimes I wonder if that tape the Yankees put on his bat that separated his hands may have affected his swing a little, because he just missed quite a lot of hittable pitches during the ALDS. If that tape wasn't there, is it easier for him to square up the ball? We'll never know will we? So first and foremost he needs to rest, get that knee 100% healthy and get that thumb 100% healthy. Make sure his hip is fine, make sure there's nothing wrong with his hooves and just get the nagging injuries out of the way before spring training.
2. Get in Shape
Another given, especially for him. I'm not sure he's ever had a year where he hasn't come to camp in great shape. He works harder than any other player in baseball and I'm sure as usual he will be ready to go. But as he ages this becomes even more important. It's easier for a younger player to come into camp out of shape and be able to get by, but if an older player does it then you might as well put him on the DL right away. It's happened to Damon, it's happened to Giambi. I don't think it'll be an issue for A-Rod but if he wants to stay off the DL and remain as healthy as possible for 162 games, then this is very important.
3. Playing Time During the Season
Joe Girardi needs to keep his aging superstar fresh. There's no other way around it. This is the biggest reason signing Prince Fielder would be a terrible idea. It would force A-Rod to third base every single game, and at his age I'm simply not sure he can handle playing there everyday anymore. Obviously he still can be the primary third baseman, but I'd give him a LOT of DH days during the course of the season. It'll help keep him fresh while still getting him ABs to keep timing down. Also, in blowout games take him out to give him extra rest. Maybe 100 games at 3B and 35-45 games as a DH? Especially make sure he's fresh and healthy down the stretch. Obviously he'd play third base every single postseason inning.
Appreciating Pinstripe Alley
As the Yankees go into the postseason for the third consecutive season, I wanted to take a moment to thank fellow Yankee fans here on PSA.
It's been a long season. Thats what baseball is. It's a long, long year and because it's so long only real die-hard fans are able to stick around it for mostly the entire year. And thats pretty much what we have on PSA right now. Die-hard Yankee fans who want to see this team win.
I found PSA off the Yahoo links in 2009 when I could no longer stand the stupidity of Yahoo commenters and the ridiculous and childish back and forth that goes on in the comments on their preview posts. It's pathetic. Go read them sometime if you want to laugh about something. And thank god PSA and all of SB Nation was found on Yahoo, and I was able to come here and find Yankees news and information that is superior to any sponsored Yankee website in nearly every single way.
The writers, first of all are fantastic. Every one of them knows what they are doing and knows what they are talking about, and they are very reliable in that way. While I disagree with some of their opinions sometimes, there isn't any doubt that these are intelligent people who deliver both news and opinions just as good as some of the most visited Yankee websites. And remember, this is a blog. The writers on here don't get paid (at least I don't think, and if you do I want in. Now). They don't have editors. Yahoo writers, ESPN writers and mlb.com writers all have editors, went to school for journalism at some of the countries best universities and get paid for what they are doing, and yet the quality of their writing is often not as good as the writers on here. From making the game threads, to every preview and recap to all the news stories and analyzing, it's for the most part been very good. So I applaud the writers for that.
Secondly and perhaps more importantly is the commenters. From the people who regularly post on here to the occasional ones to the ones I have never seen, I'll thank all of them for now. The time we spend analyzing and watching this team play is a ridiculous amount (sometimes I wonder if it's too much...), but I personally have become a much more informed and knowledgeable Yankees fan since I came on here as opposed to before. And thats due to the quality of the writers and commenters. Aside from a few notable exceptions that I will not name, I enjoy talking about baseball to the majority of the people who post on here. Whether I agree or disagree with whatever you have to say I still enjoy it, because I'm talking and debating about the Yankees, which is one of my favorite things in the world.
Well, thats pretty much all I have to say. Over the past couple seasons the most fun on here is during the playoffs, there's no doubt about that, so hopefully that continues. Thank you again to the writers and commenters. Go Yankees for #28.
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Finally Time to Talk Postseason Rotation
People have been trying to put a postseason rotation together since August, and now many should be realizing how ridiculous that is. I'm willing to bet that people's opinions of who belong in the starting rotation during the postseason at this time has changed at least 20 times if not more over the last month of the year. But it's coming to a time where Joe Girardi and the Yankees staff needs to make a decision on this matter. And while they each have one start left to make an impression, the decision is going to be based a lot on what they've already put together.
So without further ado, time to look into the options that the Yankees have to start a playoff game. So in no particular order, the Yankees have...
|
Player |
Record |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
K/9 |
WAR |
|
19-8 |
3.00 |
2.87 |
3.01 |
8.72 |
7.0 |
|
|
10-11 |
5.28 |
4.77 |
3.88 |
8.24 |
1.4 |
|
|
16-4 |
3.62 |
4.06 |
4.17 |
5.38 |
2.4 |
|
|
11-7 |
3.77 |
4.18 |
4.34 |
5.95 |
1.8 |
|
|
8-10 |
4.02 |
3.77 |
3.51 |
7.47 |
2.8 |
|
|
5-5 |
6.00 |
4.56 |
4.77 |
5.63 |
0.7 |
These are the stats that the Yankees six starters have for the season, which no doubt Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman will take some look at. It's clear here that there's two pitchers who have separated themselves from the rest, and they're going to be numbers 1-2 during any playoff series that the Yankees play (hopefully three). The other four are sort of lumped together, and while Colon looks better than the other three that is more of a result of a CC-like first half. He has pitched nothing like those numbers for a good portion of the second half of the season.
As for what I think the Yankees should look at when they construct their playoff rotation, there's three things I think they should look at. First and foremost it's how they finished the season. Look at September numbers and September performances. See if they looked strong, if their stuff looked good and if they seem fresh and ready for the playoffs. These should be looked at more than the full season numbers, because the full season numbers are greatly impacted by periods in say May or June when they may have been dominant (like Colon). Those months have made Colon's entire season look better, but what good is May and June going to do the Yankees now? The answer is nothing. The playoffs are a new season. Regular season stats are out the window and they need to go with the guys that are pitching well. So I'll go through and evaluate each starter more carefully, and then I'll make the decision I would make based off that.
1. CC Sabathia
He's fat, he's the ace, and he's the Game 1 starter. Nothing will change that. His September numbers are very good. His season numbers are excellent. And even after the innings he's thrown he looks incredibly strong out on the mound and the stuff is clearly there. He has compiled a WAR that is more than double anybody else on the Yankees staff, and there's nobody else I want on the mound during the playoffs. The Yankees should strongly consider pitching him on short rest if possible to get him on the mound, rather than go an extra game with a less reliable guy.
2. Ivan Nova
He's had an excellent rookie year, and he's in the conversation for Rookie of the Year. But thats not the reason I'd place him in the #2 spot. He's the only starter who has improved on his season as it's gone on, rather than dropped off a bit. He's gotten better as the year has gone on, and while the season numbers look solid, he's really pitched like an All-Star caliber starting pitcher in the second half, and thats the guy we're getting right now.
3. Bartolo Colon
Colon has been an incredibly wise investment by Brian Cashman, and even if he does nothing else he was one of the best signings that Cash could have done. He's been brilliant. But while the season numbers for Bartolo look very good, the second half has simply been a different story. His second half ERA is over 5, the batting average against him is almost .300, and he's gotten worse as the second half has gone on. The ERA has jumped to well over 6 in September. His K/9 is much less in the second half. His stuff doesn't have as much movement and he's not throwing as hard as he did early on, and he's paying for it. There are some positives to him, but by no means is he or should he be a lock for the playoff rotation.
4. Phil Hughes
Let me first say that I'm a fan of Phil Hughes. I like homegrown players and I still believe that Phil has a bright future, and a bright future with the Yankees. But by future, I mean next year. Not 2011. Hughes has been absolutely terrible the season as he's been hurt by both injury and ineffectiveness. After an awful start to the year and a long DL stint, he's come back and while he's been better not nearly good enough to inspire confidence. He's become sort of the new Freddy and getting lucky quite often. He is one of the worst pitchers in the AL as far as missing bats goes, and he spends a good majority of his time pitching up in the strike zone. He can get away with it against lesser teams. But in the playoffs, these are good teams and he's not going to get away with it there. Add in the fact that he hurt himself and will be lucky if he even gets another regular season start, he shouldn't even be considered for a rotation spot at this point. If he is, I'll be unhappy and I'll just hope his string of luck continues.
5. Freddy Garcia
Part 2 of Brian Cashman's scrap collection has also given the Yankees great results, and more than anyone could have hoped for. However, like Colon Garcia's pitching has really wavered in the second half after a brilliant (and arguably very lucky) first half. In the second half, Garcia's ERA is about 5, a Whip of 1.50 and a BAA of just under .290. And in three September starts since his minor DL stint, he has compiled an ERA of over 10 and an inability to get through 5 innings in any of his September starts. In addition to that, Garcia's pitching style, like 2011 Hughes is just one that I hate in playoff matchups. I depends on the team obviously, but Garcia like Hughes has an inability to miss bats, and Garcia's stuff isn't anywhere near Hughes' stuff. If he's not perfect with his command against these playoff teams, then there's a good chance he gets crushed as he has often over the last month. However, he's had a great season so he can't be ruled out quite yet.
6. A.J. Burnett
I've always been incredibly optimistic about him. I supported his signing and I've been on his side from day one and that isn't going to change. AJ has to be the most difficult pitcher to figure out in the major leagues. He's also the guy on this staff where the numbers reflect his season the least. Aside from the month of August, AJ Burnett has had a decent year. He's shown an ability to get strikeouts again (which he lost last year), has been better at limiting jams and has been very reliable at at the very least, getting through at least 5 innings. He has a high ERA because when he goes bad, he really goes bad. And that was pretty much all of August where he had a two week stretch that his entire season numbers won't ever forgive him for.
However, he's righted the ship in September for the most part aside from his last start against the Twins. The stuff has been there, the strikeouts have certainly been there and he's limited damage (which he wasn't able to do the previous month). He even had a great game against Boston that seemed to send them into a tailspin. And looking at his season numbers, his ERA is high, but his xFIP is third best on the staff and his K/9 is second best on the staff. Stuff-wise, he's been much improved since his historically bad August.
But would that make you want to trust him in a playoff game? I have no idea. He possesses some qualities that I think are very important in the playoffs. The ability and stuff to shut the best lineups down. Swing and miss stuff (which at this point, the only other starter that has that is CC). Out of all the guys in contention for the last two spots, he's the one with the best chance to be dominant. He also has the best chance to blow up, throw three or four balls by Russell Martin in an inning and completely lose it. We've seen it all from AJ this year. He's high risk, high reward. The question is, do the Yankees take that risk? We'll see.
Yu Darvish: Japanese Star, Future Yankee?
Yu Darvish is reportedly going to be posted by Japan after the 2011 season, which means he is planning to play in the major leagues in 2012. If these reports are true, then there is going to be one heck of a bidding war going on for this guy during the winter months. Six teams have shown interest- predictably the Yankees being one of those teams. Let me look ahead to the future just for a little bit, and if I were the Yankees, I would at the very least take a long, hard look at possibly bringing him to NY.
First, taking a look at next years rotation, you have Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon likely to leave the team. AJ Burnett is under contract, Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova both still have arbitration eligibility and will also be back next season. CC Sabathia has an opt out clause that he may or may not use, but either way it's almost certain he's a Yankee next year. Thats four starters, one short of a five man rotation.
Now, the Yankees may have some in house options should they want to go that route. David Phelps and Adam Warren both possibly may be ready to compete for the fifth spot. The Killer B's won't be ready as they'll each likely be in AAA to start the year, but that doesn't mean there aren't in house options.
They could go into the MLB free agency and go for somebody like C.J. Wilson, who will be a free agent in the offseason.
They could do nothing, opting to possibly give Garcia and/or Colon incentive-laden deals and wait to make a big splash after the 2012 season, where free agency looks a lot more intriguing with Jared Weaver and Matt Kemp just a few names that could draw interest.
Or, they could look overseas and look at Darvish. And after seeing the guys numbers, this is the most intriguing to me.
I was tentative about Darvish because it's not like Japanese pitchers have had success in this league very often. There's a big difference between pitching in Japan and pitching in the major leagues. But Darvish is so far and away better than any other pitcher that has come over to the majors from Japan that it's hard to believe he would suffer the same fate. Here's a table of some notable players from Japan and their ERA's while pitching in Japan.
|
Player |
ERA |
|
Yu Darvish |
2.12 |
|
Dice-K Matsuzaka |
2.95 |
|
3.14 |
|
|
3.15 |
|
|
7.82 |
Darvish has an ERA almost a full run lower than the next highest guy here (Dice-K), and Darvish has only improved. Over the last three years, Yu Darvish has posted ERA's under 2 in Japan, something that Dice-K never managed to do once. I would have posted more stats but finding numbers pitchers posted in Japan isn't exactly easy, so I don't have exact numbers. Darvish's overall and season by season statistics can be found here, at his wikipedia page. This only shows his numbers through 2010, and he is on his way to a fourth straight sub 2 ERA season in 2011.
The one thing Darvish does that a lot of other Japanese pitchers don't and can get away with is throwing strikes. He's only has had a 2.6 BB/9 in Japan, which is excellent. He also has about seven pitches in his arsenal- all of which he can throw for strikes in games at any situation, and all of which are filthy. His fastball is generally 93-94 but he can dial it up to the upper 90s when he needs to. And then he features a cutter, two seam fastball, changeup, forkball and a hard slider/slurve that he generally uses as his main strikeout pitch.
Examining Johnny Damon's Hall of Fame Chances
Yankee fans are being kept pretty busy lately with the constant rain, trade deadline drama, playoff rotation talks, irrational A.J. Burnett hate and wondering why Jesus Montero is over three months late to the major leagues. But when the Rays came into town this weekend, they brought in a former Yankee and one of my favorite recent Yankees, Johnny Damon.
Damon is currently playing for his sixth major league team in the Rays, previously playing in KC, Oakland, Boston, New York and Detroit. However, the 37 year old outfielder's career is coming to a close fairly soon you would think.
When you think about Johnny Damon, you can think about a lot of things. As a Yankees fan, I think about his perfect Yankee Stadium swing and a rise in power numbers during his time in NY. I remember how great a clubhouse guy he was. I remember him coming up huge in the 2009 World Series with a long AB against Brad Lidge and then heads up baserunning that may have turned the tide in that game and the entire World Series. And overall, when I think of Johnny Damon I think of a guy who gave the Yankees very solid years in NY, who stepped up in the postseason and I think of a winner. Those are the things that come to mind when I think of Johnny Damon.
However, I've never thought of Johnny Damon as Hall of Fame worthy. I still don't, to be honest. But when you take a closer look at his numbers, the better you realize they are. And he actually makes a pretty compelling case that I'm sure voters will take a look at. Damon's current stats are...
.286/.353/.434, .788 OPS, 506 2B, 105 3B, 225 HR, 1098 RBI, 1623 R, 396 SB, 50.8 WAR
Those numbers look very good. Excellent in fact. He's definitely had a wonderful career. But are those numbers HOF worthy? Not at first sight, but again, when you look deeper into the numbers Johnny makes a compelling case.
The two things I am very impressed with Johnny Damon right off the bat is his consistency, and his durability. Throughout his career, Damon has made ONE trip to the disabled list in 2008 with the Yankees and he has played at least 140 games in every single season since 1996. Assuming he doesn't get hurt this year he is well on his way to yet another season where he plays in at least 140 games. That is NOT easy to do. Damon's ability to stay healthy has given him the opportunity to put up the numbers that he has put up, which goes into the consistency part of his argument.
Johnny Damon has scored at least 100 runs in 10 years of his MLB career and at least 90 in 12 of his seasons. As he has spent the majority of his career as a table setter among the top of the order as the leadoff guy or the number two hitter, runs are a very important statistic. Now, the people hitting behind you help to an extent, and Johnny certainly had help playing 8 years of his career in some of the top offenses in all of baseball. But Johnny was pretty good at creating his own runs. Johnny has stolen at least 25 bases in 10 of his MLB seasons, and his ability to get himself into scoring position makes it a lot easier for teams to drive him in. Johnny is also excellent at getting the bat on the ball and working long ABs, which is one of the reasons why he's been such a good top of the order guy. He has never struck out 100 times in a season.
But while those numbers are all good, those aren't the numbers that I think put him in the hall of fame conversation. While Damon has been a very good baseball player, none of those numbers are among the all time leaderboards. None of them are eye popping stats like 700 home runs or 300 wins or the big stats. I think that Johnny is in the Hall of Fame conversation because he's solid in every offensive category. While nothing is eye popping, he's very consistent and he does a little bit of everything at the plate. I think a lot of times, consistency goes overlooked. And the intangibles that Damon brings may also help his case.
1. 500 doubles, 100 triples, 200 home runs, 2500 hits
This is a prime example of Damon being able to do it all at the plate. None of these numbers are all that eye popping but they are all very solid, and they are all there. Damon is one of 11 players in baseball history to achieve all of these numbers in his career. The other 10 are Babe Ruth, Goose Golsin, Lou Gehrig, Al Simmons, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, George Brett, Robin Yount, Rogers Hornsby and Paul Molitor. All ten of those guys are hall of famers, and many of these names are recognizable, legendary figures in baseball history. Damon is the worst player of this group, but the fact that he is in this club at all says a lot about what he's done in his career. Damon's 500 doubles is a very impressive achievement, and most of the players who have hit 500 doubles in their career have ended up in the Hall of Fame.
Am I saying Johnny belongs in this group? Absolutely not- these players are all far better than he ever will be. But still I think it is an impressive achievement, and although he barely exceeds the cutoff for these, the fact that the only other 10 guys who have done this are all in the hall of fame says something.
2. Playoff Success- The "Clutch" factor
I know that the "intangibles" of any player is not all that popular with many on this website, but the guys who vote for the hall of fame most definitely think about them. Johnny Damon's career batting average with runners on and with RISP are both higher than it is with nobody on. And his numbers with the bases loaded are outstanding. Damon's ability to foul pitches off and work the count, and perform when there is pressure has helped him throughout his career.
As for the postseason, the overall numbers look similar to his regular season numbers. But since we're looking at numbers that help Damon, I'll stick to individual moments. Fortunately for Damon, he was involved in two very big postseason moments. One doesn't need to be mentioned. The other, I mentioned earlier. Both were huge in taking his team to World Series titles. Damon's .326/.370/.535 line in the World Series is nothing to sneeze at either, although it is in limited ABs.
3. Rings- Yankees and Red Sox
I don't care who you are. If you are in Hall of Fame consideration, championships will always help your case. The fact that he won a championship with both the Yankees and Red Sox is an added bonus, and the fact that he was a big piece of the first Red Sox championship in 86 years is going to help him. He spent 8 years of his career with two of the most popular and well known teams in all of baseball, and was an instrumental part in championships for each. That won't go unnoticed.
4. 3,000 Hits
This is a big one. Johnny doesn't have it yet, but if he can stick around long enough to get 3000 hits, then I bet he's in the Hall of Fame. 3000 hits is like 300 wins, 500 home runs. It seems to be a line and if you cross it, you are in. Will that always be the case? No, but everybody in major league history with at least 3000 hits (excluding Pete Rose) that isn't active is in the Hall of Fame. He will surpass 2700 this season, so if he sticks around for 2, maybe three more seasons he will make it.
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Will Jorge Posada Be on the Postseason Roster?
Yesterday, Jorge Posada was finally benched. I love the guy, but almost five months of uselessness is more than enough. Like Girardi said, it's time to put the best lineup on the field every day. And unfortunately, that lineup simply does not include Posada.
So Posada is on the bench, Eric Chavez and hopefully eventually Jesus Montero will be the DH for the rest of the season. However, what is Posada going to do off the bench? This is a website full of really smart Yankees fans, so I'm sure all of you have seen this same problem. The man can't hit, and he doesn't really have a position. And he can't run. So the Yankees have themselves a situation where they are paying 13 million dollars for a guy with no role and who probably will only get a handful of starts in the final two months of this season.
The Yankees have already said they aren't cutting him, which I can understand. I'd cut him, but it's easier for a fan to say than it is for the actual organization to do. The situation resolves itself in 23 days when rosters expand, so there's no point embarrassing him now. It may just create more problems that aren't really worth creating. So although in all likelihood he will play very sparingly, he'll be on the roster until seasons end.
My question is, what about the postseason? In the playoffs against the best teams, you need to assemble the best 25 guys that you have and go all out for a title. Assuming the Yankees make it, they simply can't afford to carry 24 guys and one grumpy cheerleader when they could take an extra pinch runner (Dickerson), or a guy off the bench to hit (Laird, Vazquez) or an extra arm out of the bullpen. I hope the Yankees see this too, but you can't rule out Posada being on the playoff roster either.
So my question is, do the Yankees do what is best for the team and leave Posada off the playoff roster, or do they do him one last favor in his career and give him a spot?
How Does the Lineup Shake Up With Montero?
Manny Banuelos just got called up to Scranton, and according to various reports, he's not the only guy who's going to be moving in the coming weeks. Austin Romine and Dellin Betances could as well be on their way to AAA, but the biggest one of them all could be on his way to the Bronx quite soon. Yes, according to multiple sources, Jesus Montero is on the verge of a callup to the Yankees. This is only a couple months late, but better late than never. Cashman has made statements about the Montero rumors, but I'd be stunned if he isn't up within the next couple weeks.
So assuming Montero finally gets his deserving callup to the big leagues, I'm wondering how it would shake up the Yankees lineup. Russell Martin can't hit for his life, but the team loves him and how he "handles the staff", so while he may lose playing time I doubt he loses his starting spot. Francisco Cervelli is doing fine as a backup and actually hitting better than Martin has over the last two months, and also hits well with runners on base. Additionally, his defense has been much improved over the last few months after forgetting how to throw the ball when he was playing every inning during May.
That leaves Jorge Posada. I love Jorge and everything he has done for this team. He's been one of the most productive catchers in Yankees history and he's a borderline hall of fame candidate. However, everything has changed this year, as aside from a 3 week hot streak Posada has been completely useless out of the DH spot. And he's the designated hitter, so he provides no defense at all. His line is ugly, and he's hurting the team. He's hurting the team probably more than Martin and Cervelli are. Just something to keep in mind.
When Montero comes, he needs to play. The Yankees need to insert him into the lineup and have him play 5 days a week. But how are they going to do that? Thats what I'm not exactly sure about yet.
Russell Martin is not losing a roster spot and in all likelihood is not losing his starting spot either. I'd assume Montero would be getting some starts behind the plate with a lot of ABs coming as a DH. So Martin is out of the equation for now. So right now, I see four possible options the Yankees can go with.
Option 1: Francisco Cervelli to AAA, Jesus Montero to the majors
This I think in all likelihood is what the Yankees go with. If this were to happen, I think when Martin catches, Montero would be the primary DH, and then when Martin needs a day off, Jesus Montero goes behind the plate and the Yankees make Chavez, Posada, or Jones the DH.
Option 2: Andruw Jones DFA'd, Jesus Montero to the majors
This is another option that I actually sort of like, because it involves getting Andruw Jones off the roster. It allows Cervelli to stay on the roster as the backup catcher and Montero I would insert again as the primary DH. Martin catches, Montero is the DH, Posada is relegated to a bench role. When Montero is catching or has a day off, Posada can be a DH, but mostly Posada's role is reduced to a part-time DH only.
Option 3: Jorge Posada released, Jesus Montero to the majors
The report on CBSSports says that this is a possibility, but I find this unlikely. Posada has done so much for this franchise, and I don't think Cashman just dumps him. He may lose his starting spot, but I doubt he leaves the roster. You never know though. Under this condition, Montero becomes the full time DH, catches sometimes when Martin needs a day but for the most part is a DH.
I actually like this idea as well. Posada has been useless this season. I seriously doubt they cut him in favor of Montero, but I care more about the Yankees winning a World Series than I do about Jorge Posada being happy. Posada's been great for the Yankees, but his career is probably over after this year anyways.
Option 4: Nova/Hughes to the minors, Jesus Montero to the majors
When Nova got recalled to make his start, Chris Dickerson got sent down to Scranton which left them one position player short. Montero would bring that position player back up, with one of Nova or Hughes going down. Now I support Phil Hughes going to the minors if he doesn't get his shit together within the next couple of starts, but I don't think that should be the Yankees way of getting Montero up here. Montero I'd bring up for another position player, and then I'd send Hughes down and recall Dickerson or Golson to replace him.
How Would You Run This Team?
Much of what goes on here is complaining about what Joe Girardi, Brian Cashman and the Yankees front office has decided to do with the 25 man roster and the 40 man roster, and the in game lineups and managing. We second guess them quite a lot, but they're the ones in charge making the decisions and I'm sure they're trying to do what's best for the team. However, we definitely have our disagreements (me included) and I just want to see what people say.
If you were in charge of the Yankees in every way (like franchise mode in MLB the Show), what changes would you make to the way this team was run? I'm not talking about the stupid trades that you can pull off in the video game. With the people on the roster, what changes would you make? If you want to do it, Guidelines are...
1. ALL INTERNAL. No trades, no free agent signings. No bringing people out of retirement or whatever other crazy idea may come into your head. With the people within the organization, what 25 guys are on your best roster? Obviously include the changes you'd make from the current roster (which I'll post below).
2. Forget injuries. Obviously guys like Joba or Feliciano and likely Marte who won't be back this season, don't include them. But other guys that are currently hurt that will be back for the stretch run or at some point this season, include them. This is about a 25 man roster that you would put together and use for the postseason.
3. Show your 25 man roster, and then your starting rotation, bullpen and starting lineup. If you want you can also include changes you would make to the 40 man roster and the pecking order of the bullpen (if you believe such a thing exists).
Here is the Yankees current 25 man roster:
Starters
- CC Sabathia
- A.J. Burnett
- Freddy Garcia
- Bartolo Colon
- Phil Hughes
Relievers
- Mariano Rivera (closer)
- David Robertson
- Luis Ayala
- Boone Logan
- Hector Noesi
- Cory Wade
- Rafael Soriano (Garrison is likely done Friday)
Catchers
- Russell Martin
- Francisco Cervelli
Infielders
- Mark Teixeira
- Robinson Cano
- Derek Jeter
- Eduardo Nunez
- Eric Chavez
- Jorge Posada (DH)
Outfielders
- Brett Gardner
- Curtis Granderson
- Nick Swisher
- Andruw Jones
- Chris Dickerson
Here's what I'd do...
Analyzing a Possible Prince Fielder Signing
Milwaukee Brewers fat first baseman Prince Fielder is a free agent after the 2011 season. While the Brewers surly will want Fielder back and Fielder may want to come back, just like with CC after 2008 the Brewers will not be able to afford to keep him. Fielder will be going for cash, and he can get that by testing the market and seeing who bites. There will be teams from each league interested as Fielder has reportedly said that he's willing to be a DH. With Posada likely gone after this season, Fielder to the Yankees certainly is a legitimate possibility. A big time home run hitting free agent entering free agency at a position the Yankees have an opening in? CC Sabathia has reportedly been selling the Yankees to him and I'd be surprised if the Yankees weren't at least a little bit interested.
First off, let me say that Prince Fielder is a GREAT hitter. Ever since he entered the league in 2005 the man has been a power hitting machine. He's hit at least 25 HR in every season since 2006, 30+ in every year since 2007 and he's reached 40+ twice so far in his young career. He's still in his 20s and is well on his way to another 35-40 HR season. The man is entering his prime and there is no doubt in my mind that he would be a force in the Yankees lineup if he was signed. He'd make the lineup better and be feared. I have nothing against Fielder the player and he'd probably be a big star in New York.
Now let me also make this very clear. I do not want the Yankees to sign Prince Fielder! The Yankees have Alex Rodriguez signed until the end of time who will be a DH in a few years as it is. They have a number of older veterans and also a number of players signed to huge contracts. Also, the Yankees already have one of the best offenses in the league. So Fielder while he would certainly improve the offense would be an unnecessary signing, and especially considering it's going to cost 15-20 million a year to sign him. However, I'm bringing it up because although I think it wouldn't be that smart a move, with the Yankees it's definitely a possibility and a signing as big as him would have a big effect on numerous aspects on the team. I just wanted to look at some of the ways the Yankees would be affected by signing this fat man to a big time contract.
1. Payroll
Prince Fielder will likely sign a contract of 15-20 million a year for multiple seasons. Since the Yankees tend to overpay for everybody they go after, I'm going with 20 million on this one. Now lets look at the current top contracts for the Yankee players that are guaranteed for next season.
- Alex Rodriguez: 29 million
- Mark Teixeira: 22.5 million
- A.J. Burnett: 16.5 million
- Derek Jeter: 16 million
- Mariano Rivera: 15 million
- Curtis Granderson: 10 million
- CC Sabathia: 23 million (player option)
- Robinson Cano: 14 million (team option)
- Nick Swisher: 10.25 million (team option)
- Rafael Soriano: 11 million (player option)
Assuming all these players are Yankees next year (which is very likely), and also assuming that Sabathia opts out and makes 3-5 million more in his new Yankee contract, the Yankees have about 150-156 million dollars in payroll committed to ten players on the roster. Now imagine if they add a 20 million contract for a DH like Prince Fielder to that mix. That bumps it up to 170-176 million committed to 11 players. You'd be looking at a possible payroll north of 225 million for the 2012 Yankees if they choose to go this route. Remember, however big it may be the Yankees have a budget too. And while Fielder is a star hitter, giving him a huge contract could possibly limit the Yankees in doing other things to help their pitching or adding role players or both. And a 220 million dollar payroll is ridiculous.
2. Lineup
This is where Prince would give the biggest boost to the Yankees, and this is where he could make it seem like the 20 million is worth it. Again, the man can freaking hit. If Fielder were the DH next year, you'd have a lineup I think similar to this.
- Derek Jeter- SS
- Curtis Granderson- CF
- Mark Teixeira- 1B
- Alex Rodriguez- 3B
- Prince Fielder- DH
- Robinson Cano- 2B
- Nick Swisher- RF
- Jesus Montero- C
- Brett Gardner- LF
Thats one hell of a lineup too. I think that Teixeira, A-Rod, Cano and Fielder could switch anywhere between the 3 and 6 holes in the lineup, but I think the way I have it is what Joe Girardi would go with. I'm going to be honest, I love the idea of having this lineup playing every single day. This team would lead the majors in runs scored, home runs, RBIs and should never have an issue scoring runs. They'd probably be the best lineup in the league anyway, but Prince would secure that for multiple years. If there's one big plus to bringing Prince Fielder in, it's this. Just look at that lineup and tell me, no matter what your opinion of bringing Fielder in is, that you don't like this lineup. You would be lying if you did.
The problem isn't 2012 though. It's beyond that. Alex Rodriguez can't defy age forever, and eventually he's going to turn into full time DH making 20 million a year. He's not going to be able to play 3B, but signing Prince is going to force him to be the everyday third baseman into his 40s. This is going to lead to an increased risk in injuries for the Centaur, less productivity offensively from him as he ages and a lesser chance in breaking the home run record that I want him to break so bad. Not only that, but it's not a sure thing that Derek Jeter is retiring after his contract ends, and he is going to need DH time as well even in his current contract. That can't happen with a star hitter like Fielder as the everyday DH. So while 2012 may not be an issue, this is an issue for a few years down the road and I'd rather the Yankees use the DH to rest A-Rod and Jeter every now and then, and eventually transition Rodriguez into the full time DH as he gets into his 40s. They'll still have a great offense, but they can keep their aging players healthy and stronger for more years. And thats very important.
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The Yankees Catching Woes- Call up Jesus Montero!
Russell Martin was an All-Star this year. No, I am not kidding. Russell Martin was actually an All-Star, voted in by his peers. Yes, he lost the fan vote and still made the All-Star team. He didn't play, but of course neither did A-Rod last year. And yet, Russ continues to be the Yankees starting catcher despite his horrendous numbers offensively while one of the best prospects in baseball is ready to take off in the minor leagues.
I like Russell Martin. I loved him in April when he was playing terrific defense and hitting the living shit out of the ball to a tune of a .292/.378/.597 line with 6 home runs and 19 RBI. On May 1st, Martin was deservedly leading the All-Star voting at catcher and was on pace for 36 home runs on the season. We knew that those type of power numbers wouldn't last, but I think we expected he'd continue to be solid offensively and perhaps his struggles at the end of his Dodgers career were behind him.
We were wrong.
Martin has completely fallen off a cliff, whether it's because of overuse by Joe Girardi or the possibility that he had a good month and just isn't a good player, or both, he's a liability right now. His defense has gone from Gold Glove level in April to average at best and his throws have been off recently, throwing more into center field than Cervelli has recently. But the Yankees unexplainably continue to start him and act as if there is no problem with the fact that there is a near automatic out in the lineup every day (and I truly do mean every day- yes, Martin even games for Girardi on off days). The only thing they ever say is that they "like the way he calls a game". I'm going to post two lines of numbers. Try and guess who is which.
Player A: .186/.296/.286, 4 HR, 17 RBI in 161 ABs
Player B: .217/.292/.268, 1 HR, 11 RBI in 138 ABs
Any ideas? If you haven't guessed already, both are or have been Yankee catchers at some point. Player A is Russell Martin since the beginning of May. Player B is Jose Molina during his 2009 season with the Yankees.
Seems pretty close, doesn't it? Almost the same OBP. Molina actually had a higher batting average, while Russell Martin still has a slight advantage in the power department. But regardless, those are two pretty ugly lines and two pretty similar lines. There is one big difference though. Jose Molina (who is hitting .300 with 2 HR and 8 RBI this year for the Jays, in case anybody was wondering) was a backup catcher/ A.J. Burnett's "special" friend. Russell Martin plays every single game.
Defensively, Molina outclasses Martin by far. Molina had a higher percentage of people thrown out on the basepaths during his time with the Yankees than Martin has had this season, was better at blocking the ball, framing pitches and probably "calls a game" just as good as Russell Martin. Yankee pitchers loved throwing to Molina- that was a well known fact. I know AJ loved throwing to him (and some other things too in his case). So did Andy Pettitte. So did Mike Mussina.
But yet, the Yankees were pretty keen to be rid of Molina. He didn't seem to matter. It would have been just a couple million at most to bring him back. So the question is, what is the big difference between Jose Molina and Russell Martin? Why is one just a backup catcher that plays once a week for the Blue Jays while the other is playing every single game for the Wild Card leading New York Yankees? The Blue Jays have J.P. Arencibia. We have Jesus Montero. It's not like there's nobody else to catch while they have an up and coming star!
The answer is, there is no difference. They're both backups- one just happens to be starting. Russell Martin has turned into a guy with a bat only slightly better than Jose Molina with worse defense catching every single day. I'm sure Yankee fans remember watching Molina hit in 2009. If the Yankees think that Russell Martin is a legitimate All-Star starting catcher, then why wasn't Jose Molina brought back to catch? Why isn't he an All-Star? If this is their expectations- solid defense and "calling a good game", then Molina could have been had for better defense for a quarter of the price. And any Yankee with some sense wouldn't want ANY Molina as the starting catcher for this team based on defense alone. So Russell Martin, whose stats have shown to be almost identical since May 1st, is no better. Martin had 21 hits in 72 ABs in April (thats .292). He's had 30 in 161 ABs since. Since the start of June, he has 3 extra base hits in 86 ABs and is showing no signs of improving.
Again, I like Russ and I like what he did in April. He's a good guy. But as it has been said so many other times on here, it's Baby Jesus time. The guy is getting ready to take off- lets let him do it in games that actually mean something.
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Realistic Players the Yankees Could Target as Deadline Nears
The trade deadline is starting to get pretty close, so as usual the trade talk is going to start to heat up. The Yankees are in an excellent position right now, sitting at first place in the American League East. Everybody in the starting rotation has been pitching well, injured players are starting to return and the bats have been clicking. I'd take the Yankees 2-5 in the order over anybody's in all of baseball. But still, every team has it's flaws and there are things the Yankees can look at possibly adding as they prepare for another World Series run.
When trying to decide who to possibly go after, the Yankees need to see what they need to add. And quite honestly, they don't need much. The starting lineup is pretty much set, and the only change I would consider making to the lineup doesn't involve a trade, but rather it involves a call to Scranton to add a certain Venezuelan to the 25 man roster.
The starting rotation also seems to be in pretty good shape, which would have come as a complete shock to me if you told me that in the beginning of the seasons. But A.J. Burnett has had a nice turnaround season thus far (that I predicted would happen), And Bartolo Colon has pitched like a second ace. The guy is throwing hard and is a strike throwing machine, and he's dominating everyone right now. Ivan Nova has continued to develop and improve through every start and I hope he'll be back in the majors soon. But he'll be ready to come back up whenever it happens. And Freddy Garcia, for all the crap people give him on here about "luck" and "smoke and mirrors" has pitched very well, gives the Yankees a chance to win almost every time out and has been much better than anybody could have expected and is a great fifth starter. CC has been CC, and Phil Hughes is back tonight. Thats 6 starters the Yankees have right there. Do the Yankees really need to make a big trade for another starting pitcher? It doesn't seem like it. If I were Brian Cashman, I would listen to offers and see what's out there and absolutely pull the trigger if I could get a steal for a great starter, but with the way this rotation is now there's no need to force a deal to happen. So please don't trade certain prospects to try and fix a problem that really doesn't exist at this point. If you can get a steal, go for it and work from there. Otherwise leave the rotation as is.
One spot I think the Yankees should try and improve at the deadline is the bullpen. The bullpen right now isn't in great shape no matter which way you put it. I give a lot of credit to Joe Girardi for once again making this bullpen statistically one of the best in baseball despite having to trust big innings to guys like Cory Wade and Luis Ayala. Both those guys have done a nice job (well at least Wade has), but those are definitely NOT pitchers I want to hand the ball in a big spot in the postseason or in a late game situation. With Joba Chamberlain and Pedro Feliciano done for the year and Damaso Marte done until at least September if not the entire season as well, a move for a reliever wouldn't hurt. Lets look at the current state of the Yankees bullpen right now.
- Mariano Rivera
- David Robertson
- Boone Logan
- Luis Ayala
- Cory Wade
- Hector Noesi
- Lance Pendleton
- Sergio Mitre
Rafael Soriano will return shortly after the All-Star break and settle back into his setup role and hopefully be a reliable reliever down the stretch. But even if he comes back and is successful the Yankees still need one more guy if not two more down in the pen. Boone Logan has done an impressive job lately of getting lefties out since the Centaur threatened to rape him and then run him over if he didn't start pitching well, and hopefully that continues. But another lefty in the pen may be something the Yankees could look at as well. So here are some possibilities.
Kerry is having a fantastic year with the Cubbies after pitching even better with the Yankees last season. The Cubs are falling out of the race for the Central again and could deal him cheaply to a contender like the Yankees. Wood would probably resign with the Cubs in the offseason so this would strictly be a rental, but I'd gladly take Wood back to solidify the bullpen for a couple months, assuming it comes cheap.
Face it, the Twins aren't having the best season as of yet. I know better than to count them out since they always seem to make a run, but they may want to make moves. Capps is a young reliever on a reasonable salary and is a guy who, like Kerry Wood can help solidify the bullpen.
Furbush is a lefty reliever for the Tigers who I like, and could be a nice guy to have along with Boone Logan as a lefty out of the pen. He's having a decent year so far in his first MLB season and is very young. Detroit may not want to give him up, but they have four lefty relievers in their bullpen so they may be able to trade one of them.
Ryan Perry:
While we're on Detroit relievers, he's another one. Perry is having a bad season so far. But he's young and he's had a lot of success in recent years, so it's somebody I wouldn't mind taking a chance on if I'm the Yankees. For both of these Detroit relievers, the Tigers need offense and want a bat that can supply power. Maybe they'd be dumb enough to take Andruw Jones (hopefully). He crushes left handed pitching.
Francisco Rodriguez:
This is probably pretty unlikely and it all depends on what the Yankees would have to give up. The Mets desperately need to get rid of this guy as he has an awful clause in his contract. If he finishes 55 games or more this season then he will be making over 17 million dollars in 2012 and that could really slow down the Mets as they try and build a contending team while losing salary. Their best bet is to get rid of K-Rod to a contender, but no team is going to want him if that clause is included. Unless of course, K-Rod won't be finishing games with that team he gets traded to. Thats where the Yankees come in.
I don't like K-Rod at all and I'm not sure how much I support this. He's really not a likable guy and the Yankees haven't exactly had much luck with overpaid relievers not named Rivera recently. However, the Yankees could use some help in that bullpen and the Mets need to get rid of this guy, so it's a possibility he comes off really cheap just so they can get rid of his salary and that clause. If that happens, he obviously wouldn't be finishing games with the Yankees so it would only be a rental. We wouldn't have to deal with the guy in 2012, and they may even get a pick out of him if they offer arbitration. It's not a no brainer, but if there's a possibility they can get K-Rod cheap and they only have to deal with him and pay him for a couple months, then it's something they should at the very least look into.
GET SERGIO MITRE OFF THIS TEAM!!!!!
I'm sure there are more possible bullpen options but those are the ones I can think of right now. Another area the Yankees could look to improve is the state of their bench. The current bench is like this.
- Francisco Cervelli
- Eduardo Nunez
- Andruw Jones/Brett Gardner (PLATOON)
- Ramiro Pena
However, the other two bench spots need to be changed. This platoon thing needs to end. Gardner can hit lefties fine. He can still get on base and his defense is still there, and I'm not trading that for a left fielder who looks more like the guys playing the outfield on Old Timers Day than a major leaguer. Yes, Jones may run into one and hit it out, but not enough to make up for the non-existent range and horrible all around bat. In fact, I'm not even sure why Andruw Jones is on the team. As for Pena, I've had enough of him as well. He's about as bad a "defensive specialist" as there is and I'm pretty sure all his hits this season came in one game. But he can't play defense and can't hit, and the Yankees have another backup infielder on the squad already that can hit. So I'll take him.
I'd like the Yankees to have a backup outfielder who has speed and plays great defense, and I'd also like a bat off the bench. Andruw Jones is more like an "out" off the bench, rather than a threat to actually do some damage. And in this case trades are not even needed. Yes, there are guys the Yankees could possibly target but there are answers right within the system.
Chris Dickerson:
For whatever reason, the Yankees chose to send him down to the minors and keep Ramiro Pena up after Pena made another multi-error game that cost the Yankees a win. Dickerson can't really hit all that well, but he can fly and he plays a fantastic right field. I like having the option of being able to replace Swisher late in games. Swisher is by no means a bad right fielder, but he's not as good as Dickerson and having three center fielders in the outfield (all of whom have terrific range) is a great thing to have late in games. Don't know why he was sent down. For the role he was in he was doing fine.
Greg Golson:
This man was responsible for one of the best highlights of the Yankees 2010 season when he threw out Crawford at third base in September. Golson, like Dickerson has great speed that could be used as a pinch runner late in games. He's got a cannon for an arm that Dickerson doesn't have and also has decent range in the outfield. Golson I think is actually a better option than Dickerson due to his arm, but I'd rather have either of them up over Ramiro Pena.
Juan Pierre:
He's not that good of a hitter, and he's not all that good a defensive outfielder either. This guy would bring the Yankees one element off the bench that could be very useful in the postseason. Speed. Not only is this guy fast, but he knows how to steal bases and he steals a lot of them. He's got 539 in his career, and he stole 68 last season while playing in 160 games for the White Sox. He's a starter on the White Sox, but he's in a contract year and he could be a useful player for the Yankees for a couple months down the stretch.
He came up last year, and why not bring him up again. He's in a contract year, loves New York and did a great job playing here. His swing is perfect for Yankee Stadium, he's playoff proven and NY proven, and he's a great teammate. I'd much rather have him than Andruw Jones. In fact, Damon probably plays better defense than Jones does. If Tampa falls out of the race, they may be looking to possibly deal Johnny Damon. Why not at least make a call? I know he's not a role player and shouldn't be a role player, but I think he's be willing to accept a lesser role for a couple months to help this team win a World Series, and then he could go off somewhere else. It's unlikely, but at least worth a call.
This would be sort of similar to Pierre- he has lots and lots of speed but can't really hit. But again, speed is a really underrated commodity and could be a huge difference maker in a closer playoff game. He would be relatively cheap to obtain if the Yankees wanted someone like him.
This man has 20 home runs and 53 RBI, both leading the Scranton Yankees. He can hit major league pitching and he can probably hit for power. He wouldn't be a huge piece to the puzzle, but as a pinch hitter and part time DH? Why the hell not? At least give the man a chance. He's done everything he can to earn his way on the Yankees, and it seems like his age and positions he plays are getting in the way. He's a better hitter than Andruw Jones. Give him a shot.
The Yankees in no way need a huge addition. They're in first place and in good shape, like I've said. But they could use some improvements in these areas and there are some guys available in both the minor league system and on the trade market that can help. I tried to give realistic options. But otherwise, just call up a Venezuelan, get rid of Mitre and Jones and keep winning ballgames.
Thoughts?
Looking Toward the Future
The Yankees are doing very well this year up to this point, half a game behind the Future World Champion 1927 Yankees, I mean the Red Sox, in the American League East. However this season goes, there is going to be a lot of decisions for the Yankees to make in the near-future that are very important. The key guys that the Yankees have built this team around and had success with for the last 15 years are getting old and soon going to be leaving, and they're going to need some new guys at key positions in the future. I think there are three things the Yankees need to focus on as they go forward.
1. Focus on PItching
PItching wins pennants. Yes, you need an offense but if you don't have pitchers you aren't going anywhere. In 2004 when the Yankees lost the entire pitching staff except Mike Mussina, they found themselves facing an elimination game with a 38 year old Kevin Brown pitching against the Red Sox. I've forgotten how that turned out. In 2008, after Chein-MIng Wang and Joba Chamberlain went down to injury and Andy Pettitte was faltering down the stretch, again Mike Mussina found himself the only reliable one in the rotation- Yankees missed the postseason. In the years in between those seasons the Yanks had 1 or 2 reliable pitchers per season at most. Their league-best offense carried them to the playoffs, and in 2007's case some no-name Centaur called Alex Rodriguez hit 54 home runs and drove in 156 runs and hit a bunch of game winning hits to carry them to the playoffs. But if you don't have pitching, you aren't going to go far in the postseason. In 2010 the Yankees had only 3 reliable pitchers and Phil Hughes faltered in the ALCS. Again we know how that turned out.
For the future the Yankees need a reliable pitching staff, both in the rotation and the bullpen. They've been much better at doing that recently, focusing on the staff for 2009 and this offseason as well. While this offseason the bullpen plan hasn't exactly worked with injuries to 4 guys who were supposed to be important guys out of the bullpen (and 3 done for the year), they had the right idea. They have a good core at this point for a good pitching staff as well. Rivera can pitch as long as he wants (though he's probably done after next year), but they have Robertson and Joba to be very reliable relievers in the future. Some moves need to be made there but they have a good couple guys to build around in the pen. As for the rotation, again they have a nice few guys to build around. CC Sabathia is signed for a while, and if he opts out he needs to be resigned immediately. Phil Hughes once he gets healthy is still young and still should continue to improve and be a nice guy to have in the rotation long-term. If there's a spot where the Yankees should ever spend big money, the starting rotation is that spot. The Yanks need a reliable pitching staff, and if they have one they're going to compete. Always. Look at the Tampa Bay Rays, who lost everything this offseason but still has a strong starting rotation. They are 3.5 games out. A strong starting rotation is very important.
2. Use the System
I realize that the Yankees have an enormous payroll, make a ton of money and can go out and buy whichever free agents they want. But I like the idea of building a team using your farm system to try and build the core of your team. Thats what they did in the '90s, and they won 4 championships in five years and created a dynasty that lasted a long time. Another thing is, they have a lot of really talented, young players in the minor leagues waiting to come up. And even better- they play very important positions. Jesus Montero is a catcher, and the Yankees will need a catcher to succeed Jorge Posada for a long period of time. Even better? Jesus Montero is good. His defense is improving to the point where it is at least as good as Posada's was, and his offensive potential ceiling is as a 40 HR guy and as a number 3 hitter on a championship team. He's definitely someone that should and will have a big future on the Yankees. Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos are also a couple of good prospects. Both are young (ManBan is only 20) and they're pitchers. If even just one of them reaches their potential then they can be a reliable pitcher in the Yankees rotation for years. Betances is more of an "A.J. Burnett" type pitcher. Great stuff, strikeout stuff. Throws hard, but has some control issues. Banuelos has a great changeup with terrific poise for a pitcher this young. He throws a ton of different pitches (all quality pitches), is left handed and is very good. I'd hope at least one of these guys has a bright future in the Yankees rotation, if not both.
Another guy in the system that I really like is Slade Heathcott. I love this kid. I've seen him play a few times and he's impressed me each time. When I've watched him he sort of reminds me of Brett Gardner a little bit. He isn't as fast as Gardy, but he still has excellent speed and promises to be a great base stealer in the future. He has a cannon for an arm and can play any of the three outfield positions. He also has a good eye at the plate just like Gardy does and has more power than GGBG has shown. I love watching the kid play and I love his attitude. He's very confident and he clearly has fun every time he plays. The Yankees are going to have open outfield spots in the future, and while this kid is a long way away he is only 20 years old and I think that in 2-3 years he's capable of being a starting outfielder for the Yankees. I really hope so anyways- I'm a huge fan of this kid.
One other position the Yankees may need someone at is shortstop. Derek Jeter is on his way to the Hall of Fame, is my favorite player by far and has meant so much to the Yankees organization. But his time is running out. He can't hit or run like he used to, and while he still makes the plays he should make at shortstop he doesn't have the range he used to have or the ability to make that jump throw. The Yankees have a few shortstops in the organization that have the potential to be a shortstop in the future for this team. One is on the team now- Eduardo Nunez. Nunez has all the physical tools and seems to have a pretty good bat with some pop. Defensively he hasn't proven he's a sure handed shortstop, but he has a lot of range and those simple fielding mistakes should become less frequent with more practice and playing time. The other is Cito Culver. Seeing as this kid grew up in the same area I grew up in and played for a school that my high school played every year, I have taken a big interest in this kid as well. People have been "unimpressed" with him so far, but remember that he's 18 years old. If his swing was perfect already then he's be in Bryce Harper territory (minus the power and the doucheness). He has plenty of time to work out his swing, but he has all the physical attributes, a great arm for a shortstop and decent range as well. I haven't seen enough of him to know how good a shot he has to be a Yankee, but they picked him for a reason and he's still 18 years old. He has time, so I'm rooting for this kid.
Now, I am NOT saying that the Yankees shouldn't ever spend money. They have a big payroll and a lot of money. But they need to use it smartly. Cash has been much better at that the past few years and I'm hoping that it continues to be that way. Just because they have the money doesn't mean they need to throw millions at every All-Star that becomes a free agent. If they have a definite need and there is a great option in the FA market, then absolutely they should go after him. But don't give up on the guys in the system, DON'T trade them. Let them develop and use them. Some of them are really good.
3. Get Younger
This sort of ties into using the system a little bit. The Yankees are currently an older team with a lot of older guys at important positions. While this year it's working fine and they're in first place, the older guys are still at a higher risk of injury and are in some sort of decline. Jeter is an entirely different player than he was pre-2009. I continue to hope that he turns it around, but he hasn't shown anything thus far. Posada, while he has gotten hot lately isn't the same hitter he used to be and is no more than a DH now. He's never going to catch a game again. Getting younger is a good thing. As much as it would hurt, I would not bring back Posada for next season even if he doesn't retire like I expect him to. Not unless he accepts some sort of bench role- pinch hitter off the bench and backup first baseman/part time DH or something like that. Aging players like A-Rod and Jeter need regular DH days to help keep them healthy and sharp, so having a guy who's job it is to DH could make it difficult. Looking toward the future, it's time to get younger at multiple different positions. Shortstop is obviously one, catcher is another. Also, the starting rotation is another place where younger players would hurt. The Yankees have guys in the system who can fill those spots. If they want to go into the trade market or the FA market, try and stay young. Don't trade top prospects for 33 year olds in the last years of their prime. Don't go out and sign 34 year old free agents to huge deals. Those are the type of things they shouldn't do.
Position-wise it's kind of difficult to predict what will happen in a few years. But it's fun to try and see what it may look like. So for each position I'll go through and give the current ones, and then some possibilities for what it could look like in the next few years.
Catcher:
Current- Russell Martin and Francisco Cervelli
Future Possibilities- Russell Martin probably isn't the Yankees long-term answer at the catching position. Jesus Montero is the top prospect who should be sharing time with Martin now, but either way I think Jesus is the future starting catcher. Other possibilities incase Montero is traded or doesn't work out is Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine. As for Cervelli, the Yankees have other catchers in the system who are all better than him, but are all probably starters on other teams. So if Montero works out I could see those other guys possibly being traded with Cervelli remaining the backup. I like Cervelli and the energy he brings behind the plate. He calls a good game. He's struggled this year but he's a better player than what he's shown so far and I think he's a fine backup.
First Base:
Current- Mark Teixiera
Future Possibilities- Tex is signed for a long time, so he's got that spot locked up for a while. He's not getting traded and he's not going anywhere, so there's no future here. He is the future. Though it's possible Montero gets moved to 1B after his contract is up if Jesus isn't working behind the plate (I think he will though).
Second Base:
Current- Robinson Cano
Future Possibilities- Robinson Cano. It had better be, anyways. Scott Boras is now his client, so it's going to take a lot of money to resign him, but it needs to be done. He's the best second baseman in the league, he's a terrific defender and a great hitter with power. And he's still young and just entering his prime.
Third Base:
Current- Alex Rodriguez
Future Possibilities- Alex Rodriguez- Here you go
Shortstop:
Current- Derek Jeter
Future Possibilities- There are a lot of possibilities, I really have no idea who the shortstop is going to be in a few years. For now it's Jeter, for next year it's Jeter and maybe even the year after that. But he can't play there forever. Cito Culver is a possibility, as is Eduardo Nunez. There are trade possibilities they could also look at- one that I like is Elvis Andrus but I don't think thats too likely. But there aren't very many realistic free agent shortstops coming in the next few years (unless you are one who thinks Reyes is a possibility).
Outfield:
Current- Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher
Future Possibilities- Gardner should be on the Yankees for a long time. He's an elite defensive outfielder with a pretty good arm, a great eye at the plate and the fastest player in the league (or one of). Granderson I would not be opposed to signing to an extension after his contract runs out, though not for too many years. A huge extension with a lot of money would pay him at 36+ years, something that I want the Yankees to try and avoid doing in the future. Swisher probably isn't the long term answer for the Yankees in the other outfield spot. I see the Yankees picking up his option for next year, but after that I don't see him getting extended, so thats at least one outfield spot if not two open in the future. Again, I love Slade Heathcott and I want to see him starting in the Yankees outfield one day. Other than him there are some FA possibilities that the Yankees could look at if they wanted to. Matt Kemp is a FA after the 2012 season, and Cody Ross and Jason Kubel are both FA after this season and both guys I would possibly look at for short-term if Swisher's option isn't picked up. Kemp would be an expensive one, and I'd look at him if Granderson went elsewhere. But please, Brett Gardner stays on the Yankees!
Starting Pitching:
Current- CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon
Future Possibilities- Colon and Garcia obviously have no long-term future in the Yankees rotation. A.J. Burnett's contract is up after the 2013 season and I don't expect the Yankees to resign him. Not should they, unless he agrees to a short-term deal with a big paycut. CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes should both obviously be in their future plans, and I'd throw Ivan Nova in there as well. Nova has really impressed me this year so far. He has great stuff, keeps the ball down in the zone and has been much better of late as far as getting deep into games. He's still young and I'd like to think he has a chance to be in the Yankees plans for the future. Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances are options for the future as both are pitching pretty well in Trenton. I expect both would be called up to Scranton before the end of the year and both will probably start the year in AAA next year. Another one I'd look at is that kid from Japan, Yu Darvish. The last pitcher the Yankees got from Japan is now the holder of multiple Scranton WB records, but Yu Darvish is something different. He's incredibly young and has great stuff that would translate very well to the major leagues. He's definitely a guy it may be worth spending money on to bring over here. Matt Cain, by the way, is also a free agent after the 2012 season. You can't ever rule a star player out of coming to the Yankees when they are free agents.
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Joe Girardi's Binder
There has been much talk on PSA recently on Joe Girardi's "binder", the thing he uses to help him make decisions during games. I'm sure it's a very detailed book, so I decided to write down what probably is just the outline of his incredibly detailed binder and have some fun with it. I'm sure there's stuff I can add to it since I definitely missed some things. I tried to write down the tendencies he has as manager here, which he clearly gets from his beloved binder.
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Jose Canseco Challenges A-Rod to Home Run Derby
This is hilarious to me. Just thought I'd like to share it. Hearing Canseco open his mouth these days is funny.
Trying to Figure Out the Yankees 2011 Roster
Pitchers and catchers report in three weeks (thank god) and with the Yankees mostly inactive offseason and the two question marks in the starting rotation, there will be a lot of competition in spring training. At this point nobody can be sure of the exact roster that will be on the team announced at Yankee Stadium on March 31st, but it's fun to try and predict these things before it starts.
Ideally, an American League team has 9 starters in the lineup, 4 bench players, 5 guys in the rotation, and 7 in the bullpen (or 6 and one closer). There's question marks and different possibilities in every single area with different guys competing for spots. So here's my thoughts for the lineup.
Lots to Look Forward to in 2011
2010 is almost over. Now, it wasn't a bad baseball season for the Yankees. They won 95 games in an intense AL East battle with the Tampa Bay Rays, and then came within two games of the World Series. They had a few walk off wins, some special moments, and got their annual beating of Jonathan Papelbon early in the season. Alex Rodriguez made history with his 600th home run and continues to climb the home run list and build his legacy as one of the greatest offensive threats ever to play the game. And perhaps best of all, Robinson Cano and Phil Hughes had breakout seasons and should continue to improve as the years go on.
However, 2010 is coming to a close, and the calender is about to turn back to January. It's a day closer to baseball season for Yankees fans. As usual, people question the Yankees chances, and perhaps even more so this offseason as the Yankees lost out on Cliff Lee and did not have really any major acquisitions. But there's still a lot to look forward to going into next season. Here's the top five things I'm looking forward to with regards to the New York Yankees upcoming 2011 season.
A.J. Burnett: Key To Yankees 2011 Season?
A.J. Burnett is coming off the worst season of his career, but far. He posted career worsts in almost every pitching category and to use his words "broke every record in the wrong direction for the Yankees this year". In the process he managed to turn a lot of the Yankees fanbase against him and even provoke some to suggest the Yankees simply dump him.
First of all I just want to say that I think the AJ bashing is kind of harsh. It reminds me of the way people thought about Mike Mussina after the 2007 season. AJ was the Yankees second best starter in 2009. He won some big games against other teams aces over the course of that season. He pitched well in the playoffs. And he was nothing short of brilliant in the most important game of the 2009 season. So lets not act as if he's never had success in pinstripes or is a complete failure. Give it a few more years before you start grouping the guy with Carl Pavano and Kevin Brown, OK? He's gonna be here a while.
Also, please no more suggestions of "The Yankees should trade AJ/dump AJ". He's not going anywhere. He's going to be back next year, and he's going to be in the starting rotation, probably in the #3 spot assuming the Yankees pick up either Lee or Greinke or someone else to help solidify the top half of the rotation. His spot in the rotation is irrelevant really though. He'll be pitching every fifth day for the Yanks in 2011.
Is Plan B Better Than Plan A?
I woke up this morning and as usual came onto SB Nation. First I went to the Lakers site to see the news and I happily learned that the Heat had lost a heartbreaker last night. Then I came on here and I saw the usual morning post, and I saw that the Yankees did in fact have a plan B in case Cliff Lee doesn't sign. This Plan B involves the Yankees going hard at Carl Crawford and then trading one of their outfielders in a package to get a starting pitcher. If you think about this, in some ways this makes more sense to me than breaking the bank for Cliff Lee.
Firstly, this would in all likelihood make the Yankees a younger team. Crawford is in the prime of his career, and whatever contract he gets he's going to be effective throughout it. Where as with Lee and his previous injury history and the fact that he's older than Crawford, you can't be as sure. Also, whichever pitcher the Yankees for- whether it's Greinke, Jurrjens or whoever it is, is going to be younger than Cliff Lee and much more contract friendly.
Speaking of that, the next benefit is contract. Cliff Lee is expected to make CC type money, well over 20 million per year. On the contrary it would take 5 years around 12-15 million per year (probably the higher 15 million) to land Carl Crawford. I know he is never going to come cheap, but the Yankees still save 6-7 million by signing Crawford rather than giving out 20+ million a year for Cliff Lee. If you take that saved money plus the few million the Yankees are going to save when Derek Jeter finally has to accept a pay cut, they are going to save a lot of money.
With the money they save, they could use the extra funds to fill in other essentials. Believe it or not, the starting pitching isn't the only thing this team needs to improve. A stronger bench, and a stronger bullpen are also things that the Yankees need in order to succeed next year. Maybe even a fifth starter if Andy Pettitte doesn't come back. Breaking the bank for Cliff Lee is going to make them less apt to be able to spend some money on a few bullpen arms or guys who can come off the bench. Maybe even a serviceable fifth starter (since it's "Joba to the bullpen"). No big names, but they would have extra money to spend on guys who can actually help the bullpen, like Scott Downs or Rafael Soriano. A better defensive backup catcher or a big bat off the bench (I'm a proponent of bringing Marcus Thames back by the way) is also something the team could use. This stuff is much easier to acquire via Free Agency if the Yankees save some money.
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It's Time For Joba Chamberlain to Start
This upcoming season the Yankees are going to have some starting rotation questions. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes are locked down under contract. If Andy Pettitte is willing to come back, great. The Yankees will undoubtedly be looking to add a starter to their arsenal.
But if there is one guy that the Yankees need to make a final decision on, it's Joba Chamberlain.
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What Would You Rather Do?
The Yankees are about to be faced with what may be a more difficult decision than people originally thought it would be. Derek Jeter's contract situation is coming up again. He's a Free Agent, and after November 7th he is able to go around and listen to offers all around the league. We obviously want Derek back and Jeter obviously wants to be back. However, it seems like the money may be a little of an issue.
I am going to ask a perfectly reasonable scenario. What if Derek Jeter asks for 5-6 more years on his contract with a little-no paycut? What would you do? On one hand, Derek Jeter is the face of the New York Yankees and provides leadership both on and off the field. He's one year removed from an MVP caliber 2009 and is coming up on a milestone that has never before been reached by a Yankee position player.
On the other hand, Jeter is gonna turn 37 years old next year and a long contract will take him into his mid 40s. He's going to have to change positions and be moved from the top of the lineup eventually. And he's coming off the worst season of his career where it seemed like nothing ever was hit solidly off his bat, and he hit one legit home run in the second half (not counting the inside the park shot). I know he's not a power hitter, but he's gotta do better than that.
My question is, what do you do? Because reading some of the comments on Travis's fanshot about Jeter's situation people seem to saying it's ridiculous and that Jeter should only get 2-4 more years with a paycut. I'd like that to happen too, but what if it doesn't? It's definitely a possibility that it doesn't happen and that Jeter wants a long contract with no paycut. If you are the Yankees, what do you do? I think the Yankees aren't even going to mess around with Jeter and give him whatever the hell he wants. I think they'd rather pay him 20 million per year for 6 years rather than risk him going over to another team. Also, the Yankees know Jeter's value to the Yankees extends beyond his play on the baseball field, and also knows the media frenzy that will happen should Jeter ever leave.
I personally would not let Jeter go anywhere. If I had to give him 6 years I would do it. The Yankees don't get hurt by bad contracts as much as other teams do, and Jeter's value to the Yankees cannot be understated. He's the captain, the leader, and the face of the franchise and I can't imagine him in another uniform. Move him to the bottom of the order. Move him out of the shortstop position. But never take him off the Yankees.
2011 Starting Rotation
I'm thinking that the biggest thing that Brian Cashman is going to look for this offseason is a guy to be able to slide into the starting rotation behind CC Sabathia that he can count on. I think a solid #2 starter behind CC and in front of A.J. Burnett would be exactly what the Yankees need, before Phil Hughes and a mystery fifth starter could finish out the rotation. But what is definitely needed is another top of the rotation starting pitcher. They need to acquire one somehow.
The first way of acquiring one would be through the system, but I don't think Phil Hughes is ready to be a number two yet. He had a great season this year but I think he still needs to develop and if the Yankees find a starter he's going to end up being the 4th guy probably. There's nobody else in the system that can really even come close to being the type of dependable top of the rotation starter the Yankees need.
The second way, probably the most popular and most likely, would be via Free Agency. The only name that comes to mind is Cliff Lee. No other free agent pitchers are even close to his level. Brandon Webb is alright, but he's recovering from injury and is a huge question mark at this point. The Yankees obviously, whether you like it or not, are going to make a run for Cliff Lee. They are going to call him up, and offer him a ton of money to try and come to New York and solidify the starting rotation. I'm not sure that I agree with this. At first I thought that the Yankees had to get Cliff Lee and I was all for it. Lord Duggan's two posts against it, plus figuring out how old he actually is, has turned me against that idea a little bit. Cliff Lee has been historically injury prone, is 33 years old, and is going to demand a multi year contract worth over 20 million per year. Is that something you really want on this team? The Yankees have enough of these huge contracts that is going to keep people under contract making millions until they start growing grey hair. Another one isn't necessary, especially since the Yankees don't need him. If they desperately needed an ace like they did after 2008 it's one thing. But it isn't. They have an ace. They need another top of the rotation starter, no doubt, but one at Cliff Lee's level and salary isn't necessary. I think it would be smarter to try and find a cheaper, younger option rather than to break the bank for Cliff Lee. That way the Yankees have more money to spend on other needs this offseason like improving their bench and bullpen. Unfortunately, there are no pitchers that fit this mold in the Free Agent Market, which brings me to the final way of acquiring a pitcher...
A trade. The Yankees could always turn to other teams to see if they have pieces they are willing to trade. The Yankees have pieces of their farm system that A) May not have any place in this organization in the future because they are blocked, and B) would make terrific trade bait because of their young talent. To me, I look at any prospect not named Jesus Montero as a guy I would be willing to trade if I were getting the right piece. Yes, that includes Austin Romine, Manuel Banuelos, and Dellin Bentances. I would try to avoid trading Banuelos if I could, but if the Yankees were getting the perfect starter that fits their need, I'd be open to trading him. Here are a few guys the Yankees should look at acquiring via trade.
Zack Greinke- Obviously. The Royals are shopping him around and want to trade him. Greinke is 27 years old with a respectable contract. He's one of the most talented pitchers in the game. People will say that he "doesn't want to come to NY so it's dead". No, it doesn't mean that. Curt Schilling didn't want to go to the Red Sox, remember? He still ended up there. People thought that CC didn't want to "pitch out of the NL and pitch on the East Coast", and yet here he is, leading the Yankees pitching staff. It's not as if it's impossible to get Grienke. The Yankees have the right pieces to get him and I'd be open to getting him as long as it didn't involve trading Montero. Greinke could stabalize the Yankees staff for years. I hope the Yankees will at least look into him.
Jair Jurrjens- This guy is also a possibility. He's on the Braves now and they're looking to deal him. He's only 24 years old (will be 25 when the season starts), and had a bit of a rough year this year and was hurt. However, he's young and has pretty good stuff. In 2009 he won 14 games, had a 2.60 ERA and threw 215 innings, very respectable for a young guy. He may or may not be a big time top of the rotation starter, but he does have a lot of upside and he's incredibly young. He would bring a young right handed arm to the Yankees rotation and probably would not cost too much in terms of prospects or money.
Derek Lowe- On the subject of Braves pitchers, Derek Lowe is another one that comes to mind. I'm not as fond of this guy, but I'd be open to him and he does have good qualities. He's older and more expensive than Jurrjens, but he also comes with something that Jurrjens does not. Experience pitching in the AL East and experience in the postseason. He has been a terrific postseason pitcher throughout his career and the sinkerballer, while I wouldn't prefer it, may not be an awful option for the Yankees to look into.
Josh Johnson- This is wishful thinking completely. I do not expect this at all and if it does happen, there is no chance it doesn't cost the Yankees Banuelos at least, if not both him and Jesus Montero. Josh Johnson is one of the best in baseball. He has nasty stuff and is really young. Nobody could be against having him in the rotation. Unfortunately I think the cost of getting him will be too high. I'm willing to trade some prospects, but not too many. Montero should be untradeable.
Chien-Ming Wang- He isn't a trade guy. He's actually a free agent. The Nats want him back too (unfortunately). However, Wang is still young, and we know the upside the guy has. I'm not suggesting he be a number 2 starter, but I think the upside he could bring the Yankees could be of that quality. He'd be incredibly cheap with a ton of upside. Plus, I loved Chien-Ming when he was here. I was upset when the Yankees didn't resign him last year. Why not take a shot on him now if he doesn't sign with the Nationals? Give him a chance to resurrect his career in the place where he had so much success.
Brett Gardner Will Be Better Next Season
Gritty Gutty Brett Gardner had a terrific season as the Yankees everyday left fielder this season. He hit for a decent average, had a high OBP, saw a ton of pitches in every AB, stole a lot of bases, and played a Gold Glove left field which may very well earn him his first gold glove this season.
I'll admit it. I didn't expect him to be this good. I thought he'd have a hard time hitting .220 and that he'd be trade bait by the trade deadline. I was wrong. Gardner proved me and many others wrong and solidified him a spot in the Yankees outfield for years to come. His arm strength in particular impressed me. Who expected him to be atop the league in outfield assists?
Crawford should not be signed. The Yankees outfield from last year should remain in tact, and that includes Gardner. I've noticed a few people still hating on Gardner saying he can't hit. Why? He did a great job this year. He wasn't a star, but he was solid. You don't need an All-Star at every single position. Gardner gives the Yankees a solid everyday player that fills a role on this team. He'll be back next year, and I think he can be even better.
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