Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
New Blog: Detroit Bad Boys expands Pistons coverage!

Images

odradek

Apr 22, 2008 Dec 23, 2009 16 5501

rss icon RSSUser Blog

Disappointment of the year: Jhonny?


In this season of discontent, with many mysterious disappointments, it's easy to overlook particular failure. In classic Cleveland fashion, we are not looking at one or two crashes in 2009—or even three or four—but an entire cascade of underperformances that would boggle the mind of a probabilistically inclined fan. My nominee for most disappointing is Jhonny Peralta.

Jhonny was regarded by many as a potential breakout figure this year, based on an impressive 2008. Last season he was tenth in the league in slugging percentage and extra base hits (with an impressive 69). He had 42 doubles last season (only nine so far this year) and 23 homers (versus two in 2009). Going into his age 27 season, Jhonny appeared poised for greatness. And then, he turned into Julio Lugo.

Peralta's eqA is .255. His VORP is 4.5, right behind Erick Aybar and Old Omar V. His OPS+ is a robust 84. Although his slugging percentage is no longer lower than his OBP (though just barely), he is slugging 80 points lower than his career average. In short, he sucks.

So, the question is: why? He's a warm-weather hitter, so we can expect improvement. But he doesn't seem to be hitting to right center, which is where he gets his doubles. I suspect he's an intense guy who took exception with being moved out of shortstop, but even that can't begin to explain the extent of his offensive collapse. He's "benefited" from a .353 BABIP this season. His line-drive rate is a little off (16.3% in 2009, as opposed to 19.6% career), but he has a significantly higher ground-ball rate (54.1% in 2009 against 46.5% career). Another interesting aberration: Jhonny is OPsing .567 against lefthanded pitchers.

In a normal season (for a normal team), this sort of decline would not necessarily be so deflating. But for the Indians—in the midst of a teamwide disintegration—Jhonny's lack of performance has been devastating.

 

86 comments  |  0 recs

Unless Victor follows Sizemore to the DL, this must mean Hafner isn't coming back any time soon.

6 months ago Images_tiny odradek 57 comments 0 recs

An interesting list in the Sporting News of the top 50 players in the game, voted by Hall of Famers, etc. Grady at 12, Cliff at 43 and Victor at 45.

7 months ago Images_tiny odradek 11 comments 0 recs

Another reason to fret

I try not to pay attention to spring training, but this spring has gone on forever.

I looked today at spring stats (numbers before Friday's game) because I've been worried about the offense. With the prominent exceptions of Sizemore and Peralta, there doesn't seem to be a lot of hitting. Anytime I watch, I see weak grounders, pop-ups and off-balance swings. Who's squaring up on the ball?

The Indians have scored 135 runs this spring, which is good for 20th most in the majors. They are 23rd in on-base percentage, and 17th in both total bases and slugging percentage. The team is also 22nd in the majors in doubles, which is one of my favorite indicators of offensive prowess. These mediocre numbers come in what appears to be a hitter's park (let us hope so for the sake of Indians pitching, which has allowed more runs than all but seven other teams). I don't recall there being one of those 16-4 romps we remember from alligator land.

It wasn't long ago the Indians could really knock the ball around. The team scored 870 runs in 2006. The Tribe could go on a tear and score six or seven runs without breaking a sweat. I know offenses have lessened in the past few years (thanks to the humidor, etc.), but the Indians have had what could be generously described as an unreliable offense over the past two seasons: in 2007 the team scored 811 runs (still quite good) and 805 in 2008 (good for sixth or seventh in the bigs as I remember). But I can't forget that stretch in late April when the starting pitching was truly incredible—when Laffey, Lee and Jake were in the top ten in ERA—and the team couldn't score four runs if it had five outs an inning.

So what can be expected this season? Another awesome season from Sizemore; perhaps a breakout season from Peralta. Regression from Shoppach, Choo, Carroll and DeRosa. More of the same from Garko, Barfield, Dellucci and Hafner (this is not a good thing). Some improvement from Victor and Francisco. 

Can this team score 800 runs? I fear not. The offense has underperformed for the past two seasons, but maybe what we see is what we get. And the starting pitching won't be as good as it was in 2008, so the offense needs to show some vitality.

I'm not exactly encouraged by what I'm seeing in Goodyear.

95 comments  |  0 recs

Adam Miller contra Jason Davis

Euthyphro:  So no doubt you saw in the paper, Socrates, that Adam Miller has re-injured his finger?

Socrates:  Old news, lad.

Euthyphro:  No, again. If only he could stay healthy.

Socrates:  Perhaps we could say: If only he were good.

Euthyphro:  But he is good, Socrates. He throws 97—he's the best pitching prospect the Tribe has had since Sonny Siebert!

Socrates:  Would you say he is better than Francisco Cabrera?

Euthyphro:  Of course. No comparison.

Socrates:  Cabrera threw 97 as well, and had great promise that never materialized.

Euthyphro:  But Cabrera never could put it all together. He was maddening, for all his inability to harness his talent.

Socrates:  And Miller? When has he "put it all together?"  In Arizona?  Years ago in Winter Haven?  He has better control than Cabrera but is less of a pitcher.

Euthyphro:  But Socrates ...

Socrates:  There is no difference between the profligacy of Miller's talent and the waste of Jason Davis'. Or if there is a difference it is simply one of location. Did we not once have great hopes for Jason Davis? Did we not see in him the future of our bullpen?

Euthyphro:  Yes, of course, but he had a chance to throw and was found wanting. Miller never gets to the mound at all.

Socrates:  And your point is?

Euthyphro:  Well, it's not fair.

Socrates:  Life isn't fair, Euthyphro. In terms of results, Miller cannot throw strikes any more than David Aardsma. Therefore, Adam Miller cannot pitch, and therefore he sucks just as much as Jason Davis.

34 comments  |  15 recs |

"For a likely contender, the Indians don't look very threatening at the positions where the offensive expectations are the highest. As noted last week, the left-field platoon of Francisco (forecast for 260/.328/.424) and Dellucci (.254/.316/.425) is of a piece with the Tribe's seven-year trend of mediocrity from its corner outfielders, while Garko at first base is similarly lacking in punch (.261/.333/.420). There's slightly more room for optimism here than in some other quarters, however. While shoulder problems eroded Hafner's performance from .308/.419/.611 in 2004-2006 to just .248/.364/.417 in 2007-2008 (including a sub-Mendoza showing last year), off-season surgery to clean out scar tissue offers hope that he can outdo his .248/.352/.422 forecast, even if living up to his $57 million contract through 2012 is a pipe dream. Additionally, top prospect Matt LaPorta, a 2007 first-round pick obtained from the Brewers in the CC Sabathia trade last summer, will start the year in Triple-A, and could provide more punch by slotting in at left field or at first base by mid-season."

10 months ago Images_tiny odradek 70 comments 0 recs

Owner Power Rankings

We are all familiar with the common belief that the Dolan family is greedy, avaricious and pathologically cheap. But in fact they are pretty good owners. There are plenty of worse ones. So I got to thinking about where the Indians' owners rank. Consider this a purely subjective list. Graded on overall performance, lack of interference, success, investment in product, and general likability. Some of the owners below (e.g., Pohlad, Moorad) are out of date.

I don't know anywhere near enough to pass judgment on most of these owners, but here's an attempt at ranking them:

(1) Boston Red Sox (John Henry): Hired Bill James, keeps mouth shut, invests in farm system.  

(2) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Arturo Moreno): Something of a showboat, but didn't re-sign Frank Rodriguez.   

(3) St. Louis Cardinals (William O. DeWitt, Jr.): Classy organization in best baseball town in America.   

(4) Milwaukee Brewers (Mark Attanasio): Complained about the Yankees' signing everybody.     

(5) New York Mets (Fred Wilpon): Not too obnoxious for a New York team.   

(6) Chicago White Sox (Jerry Reinsdorf): Hard to believe, but maybe he's a good owner. Probably the most hawkish, anti-Players Association owner. Don't forget 1994.   

(7) Cleveland Indians (Larry Dolan): Might rank higher if Dolan would ever take out his wallet. Where are the onions? And who's doing his PR?   

(8) Philadelphia Phillies (David Montgomery): This is just a guess. According to reports in Philly, he's a piker as well.

(9) Tampa Bay Rays (Stuart Sternberg): Took over for a lunatic owner and seems to have a clue.   

(10) Colorado Rockies (Charlie Monfort): Appears to be smart, and hired Dan O'Dowd.   

(11) Atlanta Braves (Liberty Media): Ted Turner doesn't like them—is that a bad thing? TV station gets bonus points for shutting down Chip Caray.  

(12) Oakland Athletics (Lewis Wolff): Hard to get a read on this franchise. Dump players, sign players, then dump them again. Where would they be without their GM?  

(13) Seattle Mariners (Nintendo): Game company just a shadow owner; the club is actually owned and operated by one Ichiro Suzuki.   

(14) Arizona Diamondbacks (Jeff Moorad): Former agent (about to go to San Diego?), lots of debt, franchise can't figure out what it is: big market or not?   

(15) Detroit Tigers (Mike Ilitch): Pizza maniac throws money at Pudge, Sheff, D Train, etc. Wha' happened?   

(16) Toronto Blue Jays (Rogers Communications): Hired J.P. "Big Pimpin'" Ricciardi; renamed Skydome.

(17) Chicago Cubs (Tribune Company): Absentee owners don't care as long as the seats are filled. Party is soon to be over. Any team can have a bad century.  

(18) San Diego Padres (John Moores): Unloading assets to pay for divorce; can't the Padres buy any hitting?   

(19) San Francisco Giants (Peter Magowan): Spends money foolishly; see Renteria, Edgar. Likes old people, though. 

(20) Kansas City Royals (David Glass): He was supposed to be enlightened, but then he gets Mike Jacobs and Kyle Farnsworth.   

(21) Minnesota Twins (Carl Pohlad): RIP, but ein echte Karger. Contract me!

(22) Los Angeles Dodgers (Frank McCourt): Indians have Carlos Santana to show for his interference with baseball operations.  

(23) Texas Rangers (Thomas O. Hicks): Chan Ho Park, George W. Bush, Alex Rodriguez: the prosecution rests.   

(24) Baltimore Orioles (Peter Angelos): Forces his operations people to make stupid moves. Overvalues his assets. 

(25) Houston Astros (Drayton McLane, Jr.): Always unloading salary; then buys a dumb contract. In his favor: dumped Phil Garner.

(26) Cincinnati Reds (Robert Castellini): Pity the Reds. Almost makes Marge Schott look good.  

(27) New York Yankees (George Steinbrenner): The greatest meddler in the history of the game (Chas. Finley?) and a bona fide blowhard. Also a convicted liar, as Billy Martin said.   

(28) Pittsburgh Pirates (Robert Nutting): Setting the record for the longest losing streak ever.   

(29) Washington Nationals (Theodore N. Lerner): Micromanager extraordinaire. Requisition forms required for purchase of paper clips. Permitted Jim Bowden to extend Cristian Guzman's contract.   

(30) Florida Marlins (Jeffrey Loria): Hands down, worst owner. Still trying to get a stadium from Florida taxpayers. Puts revenue sharing in his pocket. Ruined the Expos.   

 

46 comments  |  0 recs

Rule change for postseason?

 

"Now that the Angels are out, the team with the best record in baseball has won the World Series just twice in the 16 postseasons since baseball creatively went to the wild-card playoff format. If the Dodgers win it all this year -- and if there is such a thing as a favorite going into the second round, they might well be it -- the playoff team with the worst of the eight records will have won the World Series three times. One can sympathize with the Angels' frustrations, especially after the final game with the botched squeeze, Jason Bay's bloop and Jed Lowrie's ground ball through the hole. We understand that after winning 100 games they believed they were the best team in baseball, but the fact is they didn't play well in the Boston series."—Peter Gammons, in his latest espn.com blog

Recently, Jay wrote about rule changes: "If you want to talk rule changes, it’s a whole other discussion, but like most diehard fans, I’m totally sure that my rules would be a lot better than the current ones. I personally would rather change the rules for postseason berths."

A team should be rewarded for winning the most games in the regular season. I think it's lame that the Cardinals won the World Series a few years ago. I'd hate to be an Angels' fan after the way they lost to Boston. I think the wildcard team has too much of an advantage. Should they come in down 0-1? Should they have one fewer home date (teams would squawk about lost revenue)? Let me point out that wildcard teams tend to come out of the AL East. Big market teams.

86 comments  |  0 recs

According to the New York Times, Billy Wagner has injured his elbow and will miss all of the 2009 season. Wagner had previously stated that he would not continue to pitch after his four-year, $43 million contract with the Mets expires next year. If he doesn't change his mind, that means he's through. For their $43 million, the Mets got 187 innings of Wagner's services. Surprisingly enough, Wagner's absence means the Mets will be players in the Frankie Rodriguez hunt. That's another reason why K-Rod isn't worth $50 million.

about 1 year ago Images_tiny odradek 4 comments 0 recs

Jamey Carroll

If Casey Blake did not exist for Eric Wedge, it would be necessary to invent him. Like many people, I was relieved to see the Indians trade Blake. It seemed like an opportunity to find out finally what the team (particularly Marte) could do, once Wedge had no choice but to play someone other than Casey.

But damn if Wedge didn't find another guy to fill the role of gamer. Perhaps these sorts of gamers are projections of Wedge's view of himself as a player, and of what he considers to be the ideal ball player.

Carroll—whose middle name is Blake, after all—is from Evansville, the other end of the state from Wedge's hometown, Fort Wayne. (Don Mattingly is also from Evansville, by the way.) Jamey's alma mater, University of Evansville, even plays Wichita State in baseball. 

Do the Indians need this again? Jamey Carroll will be 35 years old next year. He is on a pace this season to have the second-highest number of at bats in his major league career. He already has the second-highest total bases in his major league career. He has a career OPS+ of 81. His minor league career was similarly undistinguished. He had a .679 OPS over 785 games in the minors.

Considering his current favored status, I wonder: Has Carroll played himself into a starting role for next year? Maybe the general manager will remember previous infatuations—Ramon Vazquez says hi—and forbid Wedge from playing Jamey every goddamn day. But, as we've seen, Wedge can be foxy when it comes to filling out his lineup card.

Carroll has proved to be a valuable utility guy. The Tribe had a utility guy name of Blake who became a superutility guy and then got stuck every day at third base. Perhaps this is just another way of grousing about the treatment of Marte, but is it possible that the manager is smitten all over again?

80 comments  |  0 recs