SB Nation User Blog: oldjacket

Wrap-up (IF Edition)

oldjacket — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 14:41:10 -0000

These are some thoughts on the Giant's various players in multiple parts. This week, the infield.

UZR/150 is the amunt of runs a player would save on defense, relative to average at their position over 150 game period..

SGE is my guess at the Subjective Groupthink Evaluation of a players defense.

Travis Ishikawa

BB% K% BB/K

8.40% 27.30% 0.34

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.261 0.329 0.387 363

UZR/150: 13.5

SGE: very good

He could improve some next year, but realistically, it seems like a stretch that he'll improve enough to actually be a good hitter. Also, He just swung at a slider at his back foot.

Ryan Garko

BB% K% BB/K

7.6 % 14.1 % 0.58

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.268 0.344 0.421 400

UZR/150: 4.5

SGE: bad

Yeah, Ryan Garko is not +5 defending first baseman. You all know the story, not actually as bad a hitter as he looked with the Giants, but still a far cry from what you'd want out of first base. Garko would be the slowest player on any team that didn't already have Bengie Molina.

Rich Aurilia

BB% K% BB/K

6.20% 19.70% 0.33

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.213 0.256 0.279 133

UZR/150: 18.7 (at 1b)

SGE: bad

Bye, Rich! Looking forward to your broadcasting career!

Jesus Guzman

BB% K% BB/K

0.00% 15.00% 0

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.250 0.250 0.250 20

UZR/150: -5

SGE: Dunno, but we've heard it's pretty bad.

Like a less toolsy Velez, they keep trying to find a position for him, without much cooperation grom Guzman's glove. His PCL batting line was merely ok, but he could probably put up similar production to Ryan Garko.

Freddy Sanchez

BB% K% BB/K

4.6 % 16.6 % 0.29

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.293 0.326 0.416 489

UZR/150: 13.7

SGE: Looks good, when he plays

Hey, great. A second baseman on the wrong side of 30 with knee and shoulder problems.But he won a batting title once.

Emmanuel Burriss

BB% K% BB/K

6.50% 16.80% 0.41

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.238 0.292 0.267 220

UZR/150: -8.6

SGE: Occasionally briliant, but meh overall

Well, that didn't really work out. Burriss had a nice two weeks, but otherwise had the bat knocked out of his hands. His fielding needs work, but at least you can see how it could be MLB-quality someday.

Matt Downs

BB% K% BB/K

10.20% 24.50% 0.46

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.17 0.25 0.264 60

UZR/150: 6.1 (at 2B)

SGE: Unmemorable

Downs actually out hit Frandsen at AAA this year. He's still a utility player at best, and one of those guys that jcb9 reminisces about at worst.

Juan Uribe

BB% K% BB/K

5.90% 20.60% 0.3

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.289 0.329 0.495 432

UZR/150: -7.1 (at SS), 4.7 at 2B

SGE: Perfect Game-ruining, but otherwise acceptable.

Hey, Juan Uribe was not only good, he was fun. Maybe a wise few could have seen the first one coming, but the second one certainly caught me off-guard. Why does it seem like the baseball gods are setting us up for a long term contract filled with hacking and deteriorating defense, then?

Kevin Frandsen

BB% K% BB/K

5.70% 8.00% 0.75

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.140 0.204 0.18 54

UZR/150: 37.3

SGE: Who?

It's not like Kevin Frandsen takes walks or hits for power or anything, but this is the Giants, those facts should be in hisfavor, shouldn't they? He's was outhit in AAA this year by younger "prospects" this year so the Giants really should be moving on anyway.

Pablo Sandoval

BB% K% BB/K

8.30% 14.50% 0.63

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.330 0.387 0.556 633

UZR/150: -7.7

SGE: Bad, but not disastrous.

That was awesome.

Edgar Renteria

BB% K% BB/K

7.80% 15.00% 0.57

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.25 0.307 0.328 510

UZR/150: -1.2

SGE: All we saw were dollar signs.

Other than the two grand slams, that was not awesome. Edgar Rentaria was the picture of a player who still knows how to hit, but whose abilities were failing him. And just because it was injury-related doesn't mean he's bouncing back. I hope the Giants have a good plan B next year.

Ryan Rohlinger

BB% K% BB/K

5.00% 31.60% 0.17

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.158 0.200 0.211 20

UZR/150: 38.2 (at 3B)

SGE: HE NEEDS TO WORK ON HIS THROWING

Chelsea Memmel's favorite Giant would be a good utility prospect, too bad that's not an actual thing.He seems like a capable infielder who can hit the occasional home run. I know this website hopes he can stick around.

Wrap-up (OF edition)

oldjacket — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 17:39:39 -0000

These are some thoughts on the Giant's various players in multiple parts. This week, the outfield.

UZR/150 is the amunt of runs a player would save on defense, relative to average at their position over 150 game period..

SGE is my guess at the Subjective Groupthink Evaluation of a players defense.

Randy Winn

BB% K% BB/K

8.00% 17.30% 0.51

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.262 0.318 0.353 597

UZR/150: 16.4

SGE: Very Good

597 PAs of THAT. If only that were the only reason why the Giants sucked so much this year. Randy Winn used to hit just enough for his defense to make him a good player. This year, he fell apart against lefties, went out of the strike zone more, and just flat seemed to be unable to hit a major league fastball.

Winn's defense is still good for a corner, and he's got all the Barry Bonds techniques of not letting his weak arm hurt him much. At this point, though, there are a lot of guys at AAA that give you good corner defense and not hit major league pitching.

Andres Torres

BB% K% BB/K

9.50% 29.60% 0.36

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.270 0.343 0.533 170

UZR/150: 28.9

SGE: Excellant

I'm pretty sure that UZR, you and I all agree that Andres Torres was the best defensive outfielder the Giants used this year. His range is so good, that he's a threat to run into other players on routine flyaballs to either corner. If the Giants ever want to give the "Inner-outifield/outer-outfield" defense a try, they'll just need two of Andres Torres.

He also had a nice season with the bat. Torres is a hard guy to figure out. He has crazy platoon splits (.667 OPS vs righties, 1.116 vs. lefties), strikes out a ton and didn't start hitting in the minors until he turned 29. He's at least a quality 4th outfielder on glovework alone.

Nate Schierholtz

BB% K% BB/K

5.30% 20.40% 0.28

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.267 0.302 0.400 308

UZR/150: 8.9

SGE: Very Good

Schierholtz was starting to put togethera pretty nice season, then got hurt, then disappeared offensively and from the lineup card. The overall line is ugly and no one is really sure if he'll ever get on base or hit for power. Defensively, Nate had a few adventures learning the pinball machine that is rightfield at At&T, but all in all looked solid. It would appear that his reputation hasn't caught up with his arm yet. Dude had 10 asissts this year.

Fred Lewis

BB% K% BB/K

10.90% 28.50% 0.43

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.258 0.348 0.390 336

UZR/150: 8.4

SGE: [Picture of Nuclear Explosion]

One of Fred Lewis's problems is that he seems like he should be a much better player than he is. What he is isn't great, but it isn't terrible either. It just falls short of what someone with his tools should be. Just about everything in his defensive game belies poor technique coupled with good athleticism.His routes are weird, his angles poor, his hands awful. The real argument between the two Lewis factions is whether or not you think that his superior footspeed allows him to make more than enough outs to make up for the all the drops.

Offensively he continues with the theme of doing things that are easy to see poorly, and things that are tough to see well. He strikes out a ton, doesn't hit for power, but was one of the better OBP men for the Giants. That, of course is damning him with faint praise.

Eugenio Velez

BB% K% BB/K

5.30% 19.30% 0.29

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.267 0.308 0.400 307

UZR/150: 11.4 (in the outfield)

SGE: Suspicious

Last game of the season's shenanigans aside, Velez's outfield defense has progressed to the point where it's now his bat that's the weakest part of his game (and proud we all are of that). His second base play is still awful, and I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone take more time on the double play pivot. Wilriv used to claim that CF was going to be his eventual destination, and that no longer seems crazy to me. Still, fans can be forgiven if they expect the Baron to return at any moment.

Offensively, even his second half hot streak was pretty bleh (.277/.321/.426).

John Bowker

BB% K% BB/K

5.60% 26.90% 0.22

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.194 0.247 0.373 73

UZR:29.1

SGE: Unsure

Bowker reworked his approach in Fresno, but didn't really get a chance to show if he could apply it in the majors, and seemed like the same (bad) hitter as last year when he did play. UZR gets pretty wonky with as small a sample size as Bowker got in the outfield. I'm pretty certain that he's the worst defensive outfielder trotted out by the Giants this year, but that's not really saying much.

Aaron Rowand

BB% K% BB/K

5.70% 25.10% 0.24

AVG OBP SLG PA

0.261 0.319 0.419 546

UZR/150:-.3

SGE: Good

Actually worse at the plate this year than he was last year, he put up Renteria numbers in the second half. He can not hit a low breaking ball and unfailingly swings at every one. Rowand is still good enough to play center field, when healthy and he showed that this year. He still makes poor throwing decisions, and would be better if he knew his limitations. The strikeouts and the salary combine to make him one of the most infuriating players to watch on the current squad.

Posnanski on Watching Baseball

oldjacket — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:23:40 -0000

Posnanski on Watching Baseball

A well written take on an oft-debated subject around here.

Happy Birthday, Rohlinger Thread

oldjacket — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 19:56:18 -0000

Happy Birthday, Rohlinger Thread

Yep. One year ago today, the Giants turned around their organizational fortunes, and McCovey Chronicles took a rather bizarre turn with this giddy thread.

Small Sample-Size awesomeness from Romo

oldjacket — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 16:27:19 -0000

Small Sample-Size awesomeness from Romo

Thanks to his 16 K/9 IP and stellar control, Sergio Romo currently has a negative FIP.

The only possible interpretation is that Sergio Romo takes away runs already scored and turns them into outs.

Um, Tim Lincecum

oldjacket — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 17:14:03 -0000

Um, Tim Lincecum

Fangraphs draft review for your San Fracisco Giants.

Dave Roberts to retire?

oldjacket — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 14:52:49 -0000

Dave Roberts to retire?

Contract be damned, Dave Roberts is still at the top of my list of Giants I would like to have a beer with.

Ex-Giant Report

oldjacket — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 13:55:47 -0000

Julian Tavarez thinks that the Nationals are a 600 lb woman at 4 a.m.. Given his looks and pitching abilities, I would say that the Nationals probably also required a few shots of tequila to brace themselves for "The Julian Experience".

Jason Schmidt is not going to be the fifth starter for the Dogs. That should surprise no one. But the guys that he lost the fifth starter job to should make you feel sorry for him: Eric Stultz, Eric Milton, Eric Roberts (okay, not really), Claudio Vargas and Shawn Freakin' Estes are all still in the running for the job. That list reads like like the Jeopardy answer to the question: "Who are four pitchers worse than Barry Zito?"

Community Projection Project for BtBS

oldjacket — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 07:12:26 -0000

I've volunteered to help in a systematic projection of the Giants for Beyond the Boxscore. and I need your help. There are two things we're looking to project: performance and playing time. I've used the CHONES and my own brain to offer you a starting point on the hitters, and then I flat out stole Xanthan's pitching projections for a starting point on those.

Now I need you to rip them apart. Especially the playing time projections, as the estimates of knowledgeable fans are likely to be way better than some dumb ol' algorithm. I will revisit this at least one more time before the season to adjust the estimates based on injuries and (God help us) Spring Training performance.

If you disagree with these projections even a little bit, here's what to do:

1) If it's related to fielding, baserunning, hitting or pitching feel free to comment below.

2) If it's just about hitting, you can go to this application that I stole from The Other Fifteen and make your own projection which I will use to create a mean community projection for each hitter.

General Guidelines-

for playing time I used a hard cap of 695 at bats for each position. It's fine to go over or under that number, but the end result should be in the neighborhood 695 at bats per position.
Not too many players add more than 1 win with baserunning over the season. Not too many cost their team more than a half.
-2 wins to +2 wins is a reasonable range for defense.
For relievers, leverage is a measure of how crucial a game situation is. A closer will generally end up with the highest leverage score in the bullpen, followed by the set-up guys.

Here are the initial projections:

Hitters

Pitchers

Finally here's the link to worksheet that this is all based off of.

Thanks for your help.

BoTB on Verducci Effect candidates for 2009

oldjacket — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 17:16:20 -0000

BoTB on Verducci Effect candidates for 2009

BotB lists out a few Verducci Effect candidates for 2009, Timmy amongst them.