First, the link (I concede this is speculative, and that's why I didn't title this post in a way that suggested a trade has been floated)

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-120131/nba-dwight-howard-trade-machine-thoughts (go down to the #5 point)

Chicago is clearly in need of outside scoring with Rip's nagging injuries and Deng's inconsistency. Kevin Martin is one of the most consistent outside scorers in the league.

We are in need of a long-term solution at the C position (arguably the hardest position on the court to fill with quality talent). Noah is one of the best centers in the league, aside from Howard, M. Gasol and Bynum. He is good for an efficient double-double, and is an incredible defender who boxes out well, blocks shot and doesn't get bullied on the block.

While I would hate to see Kevin Martin go (I have his jersey, after all), we have a backup with starting experience in Lee (who is also a better defender and someone the team trusted to start, evidenced by the nixed Gasol trade) and shooting guards are a dime a dozen in the league.

Would you guys do that swap? I saw a similar discussion on clutchfans, and not surprisingly, people are balking at the idea.

Side-note: this kind of move would mesh nicely with acquiring Wilson Chandler through FA (smiley-face)

He's poised to make his return to the NBA shortly, and I feel like he'd be a great addition to our roster. When taking in to consideration that Dwight Howard is probably not coming to Houston, I feel like using that cap space we currently have on a 2-way wing who is still only 25 years old would be a wise move because of his all-star potential.

He's 6'8", can score from the outside, has an ok handle and rebounds and passes the ball well. Denver currently holds his bird rights, but since they recently inked deals with Afflalo and Gallo, I figure they're not looking to keep him (although they may use him in a sign-and-trade). They also have incredible chemistry right now, and adding a player who would get a lot of touches seems to throw off the balance of their offense.

His presence on the wing as a scorer also makes Kevin Martin, a potentially very valuable (and older) trade chip, expendable. In an ideal world, I see us picking up Chandler and then trading Martin and Scola for Stoudemire, leaving us with Lowry / Dragic, Lee / Budinger, Chandler / Parsons (haha), Stoudemire / Patterson, and Dalembert / Hill.

What do you guys think about Morey going after Wilson Chandler?

The trade has been nixed, and not much can be done about that, absent the league changing its mind (which, to me, seems the most prudent move in order to save face). Now there are three franchises left wondering what the next step is.

The big question, I think, is if Chris Paul is trade-able. If the league approves a different variation of a CP3 trade, it will stink of corruption aimed at keeping him from going to LA. If he is not traded, however, the league has driven the prospect of extracting value from him at all in to the ground. This leaves Dell Demps with one of the most unenviable jobs in sports.

If he is traded, I don't understand why he wasn't traded to Houston. I can't imagine Lamar Odom is the deal breaker in that kind of scenario. Furthermore, if I'm Daryl Morey, I do what I can to get Chris Paul here, sign a center and try to keep Kevin Martin off the table in future negotiations. While some think 'you put any and everything on the table for a top 5 player,' you have to keep in mind he's also a free agent; subsequently, you need to set up a team around him now that is going to make serious noise in the playoffs. Otherwise, he will leave without hesitation. New Orleans, with the exception of one season a few years back, has never provided him with that atmosphere.

Houston, with the right moves, can. If we amnesty Thabeet, we will have close to 12 million in cap space, all of which can be offered to a guy like Deandre Jordan (Clippers offer is 5 years 40 million, so roughly 8mill a year). From there, you trade Lowry, Scola and picks to the Hornets for Paul. That leaves you with the groundwork for a good, young team. If Paul stays, you watch him make Jordan, Patterson, Hill, Budinger and Martin in to better players, and a few moves later we could end up with another elite piece. If he goes, you only have long-term money tied up in your young and talented center (since Martin would be coming off the books) and once again could be aggressive in free agency.

This, however, is contingent on the league being ok with letting New Orleans trade Paul, so long as it's not to a dynasty-like team.

This is according to twitter posts by Woj, Marc Spears and Feigen. I know Sampson has a reputation as a defense-first guy (something this team sorely needs), and he has recently been part of one of the NBA's best defenses in Milwaukee. Bickerstaff (the younger one) is someone whom I'm not too familiar with. Both of these guys are set to join Chris Finch, which means guys like Dave Joeger are staying home. What thoughts do you have on the new coaching staff?

[Thanks for this, Olivarez. --Tom]

Something that I think has been lacking over here is a detailed look at the stretch run for all teams involved in the western conference playoff chase, something we are very much a part of (for better or for worse). I'll go ahead and do each team in order.

6. Portland

Their remaining schedule (12 games): vs WAS, vs SAS, @ OKC, @ SAS*, @ NOH, vs OKC, vs DAL, vs GSW, @ UTA, vs LAL*, vs MEM, @ GSW*

Notables: Portland has 3 back-to-backs left on their schedule, 2 of which are road games. They play a contending team 4 times. 5 of their 12 are on the road. 9 of their 12 are against teams in the western conference playoff picture. They have (so far) split their season series with SAS, have lost 2 to OKC, have lost 2/3 to NOH and have split with MEM.

Prediction: 6-6, 46-36 record.

7. New Orleans

Their remaining schedule (11 games): @ UTA, @ PHX*, @ LAL, vs POR, vs MEM, vs IND, vs HOU, vs PHX, @MEM, vs UTA*, @ DAL

Notables: New Orleans luckily only has 2 back-to-backs left on their schedule. They only play 2 contending teams, but both games are road games for the Hornets, and both are against teams fighting for the 2 seed, which will prove to be monumentally important for the Mavs or Lakers in the 2nd round. Despite the lack of contenders on their stretch run, they play many other teams fighting for playoff seeding; none of these teams are statistically eliminated from the playoffs, and 6 of their remaining 11 are against teams currently en route to the playoffs. 5 of the 11 are on the road.

Prediction: 5-6, 45-37 record.

8. Memphis

Their remaining schedule (11 games): @ BOS, @ CHI, vs SAS, vs GSW, @ NOH, vs MIN*, vs LAC, vs SAC, vs NOH, @ POR, @ LAC*

Notables: The Grizzlies only have 2 back-to-backs remaining, and each one includes a lottery team. They play 3 contending teams, but back-to-back-to-back. They are 1-2 in the season series with SAS. They have split their series with Golden State, who will still be on their tour against the Southwest Division (I think they'll win this game against Memphis, and drop at least 115 on them). They are 0-2 against New Orleans this season, but both games were close. I think they'll split their final two. They have beaten the clippers twice, once by a point and the other a blowout. 6 of their 11 are at home.

Prediction: 6-5, 45-37 record.

9. Houston

Remaining schedule: vs GSW, @ MIA, @ NJN, @ PHI*, vs SAS, vs ATL, vs SAC, @ NOH*, vs LAC, vs DAL, @ MIN.

Notables: The Rockets play 3 contending teams. They have 2 back-to-backs remaining, both of which entail road games; however, both begin with a bad team and are followed by a playoff-bound team. They have split the season series with GSW, are 1-2 against NOH (though I think they win this one), 0-3 against SAS, 0-3 against DAL and 1-1 against MIN.

Prediction: 9-2, 46-36 record. To be detailed, I think we continue our winning streak and beat the Ws, Heat and Nets before losing to the 76ers, who are a tough matchup for us. I think we'll beat the Spurs (we've seen them 3 times now and have played pretty well in 2 of those games, Chase will prob be back, we'll want it more for the playoff implications, etc), Hawks (who are just about as bad as can be against .500 or better teams, but play in the east), Kings, Hornets (tying our season series with them), and Clippers before finally losing to the Mavs. We'll cap the season off with an emphatic crushing of the Wolves. The Rockets look as good as any team since the break, and have 5 cupcake games remaining. The true test is how they fair against those 3 contenders. Beating 2 of them instead of 1 or getting swept in those games is really our key to the playoffs, and the players know that.

The scenario:

Under this set of predictions, we have the following situation

6. POR, 46-36

7. HOU, 46-36. The Blazers, however, own the tie-breaker. Given matchups, I would really hope the Lakers are the 2 seed, considering that we match up with them better than the Mavericks (we own a clear advantage at the 1, and are not favored, but competitive with them at the other 4 spots on the floor). Either way, our chances of winning a first round series are slim-to-none, but it would be fun to watch and one in which we can win a game or two.

8. NOH, 45-37. The Hornets, if my predictions are right, will own a 3-1 tiebreaker advantage over the Grizzlies, leaving them out of the playoff picture (sadly).

Feel free to use the comments to describe how you think the rest of the season will play out for these teams.

First off, good luck to Battier and Brooks. I hope they enjoy the rest of their seasons in their new homes.

That said, I think we had a great trade deadline, both for now and in the future. There are a couple of major changes to our team that need to be taken into consideration in order to understand our current and future situation:

1) Terrence Williams will inevitably receive playing time now. I feel like DM traded away a starter and didn't make a move for another ( like G Wallace) because he wanted to create playing time for him. This has a couple of implications. Firstly,  we can see what we have in this guy (which is a potential Andre Iguodala lite, on a rookie scale deal). Second, it creates more looks for us on offense in light of Budinger's probable new starting job (since he can put the ball on the floor, unlike Battier). Third, it takes the need for Williams to shoot (his weakest attribute) away, considering Dragic is a solid shooter, as is Lee, Miller and Patterson (with limited range).

2) We now have 7 players on their rookie deals, and roughly $25 million in expiring deals this summer. I wouldn't be surprised if we make a trade in the off-season moving some of these young parts to land a starting center.

3) We now own 3 draft picks for this year. If all three teams keep their current pace, it looks like we'll have the #12, #18 and #22 pick. We could parcel these togethers (either two of them, or all three) and move up in the draft, or we can trade the picks we've acquired with current young talent for a potential impact player.

4) Thabeet is a project, yes, but I wouldn't be surprised for him to start getting time within his first 5 games here, considering how quickly Jordan Hill was inserted into the rotation. If he is better than Jordan Hill, then we instantly are a better team considering his size.

5) If we are shooting for the playoffs instead of a better lotto pick this year, it's certainly not out of the question. Our schedule isn't mercilessly brutal, we have many x-factors that could turn out to be what we've been missing all season (that can be realized through possible contributions from Williams and Thabeet). Phoenix got worse by absorbing Brooks, unless he instantly turns it on, and Memphis is going to sorely miss Gay for the next 3 weeks of the stretch run, especially considering they're stuck with Mayo, whom they tried to trade away today. 

To be short, I don't think we're waiting to strike oil in the draft; rather, I think we have the draft as an option, but will probably flip at least one of those picks and look to move some of our young talent for an impact big man in the summer, and offer money to a vet center as insurance (Dalembert comes to mind. I think Morey didn't trade for him because he can probably be had at a decent price in the offseason, so long as he doesn't run off to MIA or NY for less money). I think we're better poised for a run at the 7-8 seed, considering we're now more balanced and Thabeet / Williams can be game-changers. If they're not, we always have the summer to fix things.

I've been perusing insidehoops and the other various rumor mills, and put together this list of centers who will either be moved, or at least are being currently shopped by their respective teams. Of these centers, who are you most interested in? According to Feigen, the Rockets have interest both in a starting center, and a young center, which leads me to believe he's looking for the former in the form of a shorter term deal, and the latter in as long of a current deal as possible.

Call me crazy, but this is the kind of deal that is both consistent with what the Houston beat writer has reported (in regards to Carmelo), and one that I think satisfies the desires of 4 different teams (yes, 4). It is also the kind of massive deal that is extremely hard to get 4 GMs to agree to, and is a vision I had in a dream:

HOU receives: Carmelo Anthony, Nene, Omer Asik, Keith Bogans, CJ Watson, Al Harrington, CHI '12 1st rd pick, MIN '11 2nd rd pick
DEN receives: Jordan Hill, Yao, Shane Battier, NYK ’12 pick (which we own), CHI ’12 pick (Houston flips this pick to you), MIN '11 2nd rd pick (we also flip this to you)
CHI receives: Courtney Lee, Chuck Hayes, Aaron Brooks, Nikola Pekovic
MIN receives: Chase Budinger, Taj Gibson

Our beat writer in Houston has reported that a Carmelo package would entail Jordan Hill, Yao, Battier and a draft pick. The addition of the other teams nets you guys 2 more draft picks, giving you at least 3 in 2012 and an additional 2nd rounder in this year's draft, which isn't chock full of stars, thus giving you more value in the later stages of the draft. Jordan Hill is a very long, athletic big man who has shown flashes of being an NBA force.

Also, our beat writer reports that dealing Carmelo dramtically increases the likelihood of Nene being moved as well, and this deal gets you out of Harrington's deal. What do you guys think?

Link: http://bit.ly/eYPQyZ

The Knicks like Brooks, but wouldn't like to give up too much to have him. Is there anyone on the Knicks roster anyone here is interested in? I'd like Fields but I don't think they'd make that deal. Turiaf would also be a nice piece, but they're thin at center and kind of need him there. Wilson Chandler would also be a nice piece, but we have 3 small forwards as is.

Saw this on NBA.com earlier today, and thought it was pretty interesting. Per David Aldridge:

Two-plus weeks until the trade deadline, and the Carmelo Circus aside, along with those guys who everyone knows are on the block -- like the Nets' Troy Murphy and the Knicks' Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry -- here are the guys that, according to front office sources around the league, are eminently gettable before Feb. 24:

Golden State center Andris Biedrins, Memphis guard O.J. Mayo, Lakers forward Ron Artest, Portland centers Marcus Camby and Joel Przybilla, Philadelphia forward Andre Iguodala, Phoenix forward Josh Childress, Washington forward Rashard Lewis, Detroit guard Rip Hamilton, Cleveland forward Antawn Jamison, Minnesota guard Jonny Flynn, Charlotte forwards Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw and Houston forward Jared Jeffries.

I thought this was interesting because of Aldridge's use of the word 'gettable' - namely, that these are guys teams are looking to move. Of this list, Camby, Przybilla, Biedrins and Iguodala catch my eye, but that's just me. Further, one of our own is predictably listed as a gettable player, so what do you guys think? Out of this group, are there guys that you think would make an impact on this team?

I don't have access to Synergy Sports, or really any other account-required stats-based observation of the effect a player has on his team when he's playing, but I'm really interested in the defensive effect Nene has on a team, specifically those with athletic guards who prefer to drive over shoot. The Rockets #1 problem is paint defense, and an upgrade in paint defense is clearly needed to lift this team up off the ground.

I ask because I feel like Nene would meaningfully change our defense in the lane and improve our team on both ends of the floor because of his rebounding ability, size (both weight-wise, giving him a clear advantage over Hill at C, and height-wise, giving him a clear advantage over Hayes at C) and mobility.

I also ask because it seems like his availability should increase given the impending Melo-and-Billups to NJ trade that is supposed to happen tomorrow. Would you guys be willing to take back a big contract to collect Nene in a trade (there are two left on the DEN roster: Andersen and Harrington. Personally, I'd be willing to take on either or both)?

Would you people in Portland be open to this trade?

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=34hclrr

POR receives: Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, NJ First Rounder

NJN receives: Carmelo Anthony, Andre Miller, Al Harrington

HOU receives: Nene, Marcus Camby

DEN receives: Yao Ming, Derrick Favors, Jordan Hill, 3 NJ First Rounders

I figure getting a starting quality point back in a trade of Miller, while keeping Batum, is of key interest to Cho. Devin is also a young guy, an all star, and an overall very talented player. Additionally, it makes up for the signing of Camby, which, while smart, makes a LOT more sense in a world where Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge play a lot of games together. In turn, you get a big expiring contract back in return, perhaps to find a cheaper or younger way to fill that hole in the middle this summer.

Here in Houston, we need length, and we also need to cash in all of these assets we have for something game changing. Nene would clearly be the big deal added, but having Camby come to back he and Scola up would really change the whole dynamic of our front court and present a major challenge to teams like LA.

So, on the whole, what do you guys think of a deal like this? Does getting out of Miller's contract and the Camby extension become worth it when getting back Harris, an expiring contract, and a first round pick?

I have been having fun tinkering with ESPN trade machine today, and I had an idea:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=35vuo3r

HOU receives: Andre Iguodala, Chris Andersen

PHI receives: Kyle Lowry, Jared Jeffries, Kris Humphries, maybe a first rounder from us

NJN receives: Carmelo Anthony, Andres Nocioni

DEN receives: Derrick Favors, Chase Budinger, Troy Murphy, Shane Battier, and is showered with picks from New Jersey

For us, this trade would wipe the slate clean at the SF position, and gives us someone who I think is both a starting quality center and a good defender. We get better on both ends of the floor at the swingman (considering the addition of Williams), we sell as high as possible on Lowry, and we increase our presence around the rim by adding a legitimate shot blocker.

Philly gets a starting quality point guard who could very well help Holiday develop his game, and makes Lou Williams or Lowry a valuable trade chip for Philly in the summer. They'd also be rid of all excessive salary with the exception of Brand, and can start a bunch of young guys and maybe grow them like the Thunder (their starting lineup could conceivably be Lowry, Turner, Young, Brand and Speights). Humphries has also been somewhat of a surprise sensation this year, particularly in the rebounding department.

New Jersey gets Carmelo while keeping their other two coernstone-type pieces.

Denver gets the #3 pick in the draft, cheap young talent, lots of draft picks, and 2 sizable expiring contracts.

Honestly, I think this is a reasonable trade. Thoughts?

So I read this article this morning on BDL

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Steve-Nash-would-probably-pick-the-Suns-to-mis?urn=nba-279577

I find it interesting that Nash is uneasy about their season from the get-go, and feel like a poor start for them is inevitable. This is likely for 3 key reasons. First, they have a strange mish-mash of players that Hollinger is accurately referring to as 'small forwards anonymous.' Second, they have obvious defensive holes, even with Stoudemire gone. Third, their opening schedule is rough - in the first 2 months of the season, they will face Utah, LAL (twice), POR (thrice), SAS (twice), DEN (twice), MIA (twice), ORL, OKC, DAL, CHI, ATL and us. That's a lot of games in 2 months that you can probably wager money on them losing just due to the talent differential

With this in mind, I feel like the first two months of the season may break the backs of the Phoenix front office and send them into frantic rebuild mode. As such, does anyone think

A) that Phoenix would bite on a trade package of Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries and Aaron Brooks for Nash?

and

B) that such a trade would add the 'elite' guy to our mix of solid-to-exceptional players? I seriously love Brooks, but would probably pull the trigger on a deal like this in a heartbeat.

http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/slamonline-top-50/2010/09/top-50-yao-ming-no-38/

This is actually a great read; they characterize Yao in exactly the same way I feel. When you put aside your Rockets fandom, it's really hard not to sympathize for Yao. When you reflect on Yao in light of that fandom, it's such a complicated relationship. What do you guys think? Is Yao #38 relative to the time he played last season?

It seems that the original stab at organizing a pickup game was either lost in a sea of bragadocious rhetoric or hard-to-translate slang. That said, we should start up a pickup game system of some sort. Personally, I am usually at the UH rec on Mondays, and while it's exceedingly nice to play indoors with straight rims, hardwood, air conditioning and glass backboards, I am willing to play outside. Although, if anyone is down to pay, it's $7 a head to come to UH.

If a game were to be set up, how opposed is anyone to playing at the courts in front of TC? It's usually not that hard to get a game going, and it does have glass backboards and a regulation rim (none of that 11 or 12 foot bullshit). Also, it's equal (or roughly equal) distance for people coming from any side of town. Plus it's easy to find if you're genuinely a Rockets fan.

But worst of all: Clutchfans has a pickup game system and they have people that come play, thus, we need to as well!

From ESPN:

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/news/story?id=5329599

Elston Turner has been allowed to be interviewed about the coaching vacancy in LA (but not the important team). What do you guys think about that? He is the guy behind our defensive schemes and, to me, has been a pretty great asset to the team. How do you think him potentially leaving will affect the Rockets on the defensive end? And with that in mind - if he does leave, who do you think might step in to replace him?

There hasn’t been much discussion over the non-headliner free agents this summer, many of which are important to contending teams inasmuch as they bring a variety of talents to the table, which can act as upgrades to our current roster, or bring skills not yet featured here.

There are two in particular that I’d like to address:

First, Brendan Haywood. This is a guy who came off of a disappointing playoff and regular season showing with Dallas, and has not been a high-level player in DC for a while despite being paid like one. With that in mind, my thoughts are that he could go for something like the MLE. What do you guys think about him as the backup to Yao; he is not a scorer, but can rebound and the block shots as well as anybody in the league, something the Rockets desperately need.  I have gone on record as saying I think Joel Pryzbilla is the guy we need, and I stand by that, but if a team like Denver nabs him, what do you think about the possibility of signing Haywood to something like 5ish million a year for 3 years?

Second, Raja Bell. There is a lot of talk about the desire to trade a Battier, Ariza or Jeffries (or 2 out of these 3 guys) for one dinosaur-looking fella. This is a questionable move if we get rid of 3 inasmuch as we are sacrificing whatever perimeter defense we currently have; sure, Brooks , Martin, Budinger and co. can become better team defenders in the off season, but these 3 have a reputation now as above-average on the defensive end. If one or two were to go, how would you guys feel about adding Bell this offseason? He, like Battier, is known for two things: 3’s and D. Coming off of a crippling injury (of the freak variety, not known as an injury magnet) that cost him playing most of this past season, is it reasonable to think about adding him to our team? Let me condition this by saying I would say this is only a good idea if we do indeed trade one or two of our defensive centerpieces for Bosh.

And for good measure, VAMOS ESTADOS UNIDOS, VAMOS MEXICO!!!

By Chad Ford . . . 

First, here is the link: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5208043

Second, he followed it up with reporting that he was told that none of the Texas teams are on his list.

He limits himself to the Raptors, the Lakers, the Heat, the Bulls and the Knicks. This is particularly shitty for Toronto in any situation because none of those teams have anything that is genuinely valuable in a sign-and-trade (NY has nothing except Gallinari, the Lakers have an injury prone Bynum to dangle, the Bulls have Deng or Hinrich, and the Heat have Beasley and chump change). This isn't to say that, if he wants to leave, that they don't 'force him' into a sign-and-trade with some hard negotiating, but the chances of Houston picking him up are now really slim, which is a bummer to me because he would've been a great upgrade at the 4 spot. 

Do you think BC would bite on a package of:

-our 14 pick

-Chase Budinger (huge steal in the second round, great shooter and gets to the rim with a LOT of confidence)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKHyGryHhUU&feature=related

-Jordan Hill, last year's #8 pick. Once he left NY, he got minutes and showed a lot of talent.

-Next year's Knicks pick or our pick (making it conditional, giving up the better pick)

-Jared Jeffries

-Shane Battier (and a subsequent buy-out of Shane so we can re-sign him)

for Bosh. You clear cap space for 2011 and the future, and get a lot of young pieces to grow with Derozan.

Twitter, ESPN.com, insidehoops.com, news websites, message boards / forums, etc. all imploded when the Cavs lost. Everyone from Ford to Spears to Woj used their smartphones until their fingerprints were permanently set in the touch screen. The unthinkable had happened: LeBron had failed again, and now the gates of Hell have opened for the summer. The fact of the matter is Lebron is the best player on the market, and simultaneously, one of the best players in the league (if not, the very best, depending on who you talk to).

This, as many have said, genuinely disturbs the arrangement of power in the NBA. The current teams with an abundance of room in their cap are New York, New Jersey, Chicago, Miami, Washington, Los Angeles (Clippers), Minnesota, and Oklahoma City. Teams that don't have cap space (barring some opt-out move) but possess trade assets and potential cap space are Los Angeles (Lakers), Houston, Dallas, Cleveland and Phoenix.

The implication is pretty clear: of the 30 teams in the NBA, 14 have the ability to be totally re-tooled, or changed in a significant way. Couple that with the way in which players can be moved around in the free-agent market through trades and we could be looking at several different teams making playoff appearances or even going as far as being contenders. In my eyes, Orlando is the only championship-caliber team that is pretty much guaranteed of having the same look next year.

I'm going to preface my analysis first with an assumption: that of which is that James is leaving Cleveland. The team they have now is going to be there for a while; the other pieces of their core (Williams, Jamison, Parker, etc, are not expiring deals), and a lack of a quality coach that can make the pieces fit together has lead to what will surely be a bitter team that LeBron probably doesn't want a part of anymore. This is crucially important, then, to teams who are in the market for max-contract players, both those with open cap space and those with trade assets. LeBron's entrance into the free-agent market drastically affects these two types of situations: cap-space and 2010 draft positioning, and those who don't have very much cap space, but do possess multiple trade assets.

---

First, the teams with cap space and / or draft positioning:

New Jersey: I have already dealt with the issue of New Jersey, so to summarize, they hold the highest probability of winning John Wall or Evan Turner. The former would give them a big trade chip, that of which being an all-star point guard in Devin Harris. They also have a couple contracts to give away, future picks, cash and will still have the ability to sign another max-contract player. The incredible part of their situation is they are poised to be able to engage in a sign-and-trade, on top of an outright signing. They will inevitably be good at the PG and C positions already (Wall or Harris are admirable options), and need work in the PF, SF and SG categories. Lee and Williams are both quality back-up players for now, though one would probably have to move in a trade, and luckily (or strategically) New Jersey needs the most help in areas where this free agent market is bursting at the seams: PFs and swingmen.

The caveat: the possibility of LeBron James moving to the Nets still seems awkward or strange, inasmuch as it leaves Cleveland with an over-abundance of point guard, which could be a deal-breaker (forcing an outright signing, which I think is unlikely for a player of his caliber), or a deal-incentive, inasmuch as it gives the Cavs back a bargaining chip. That, to me, still seems foolish though, since James is the best bargaining chip in the league. 

Thoughts: LeBron might end up in New Jersey, but probably only if they hire Calipari, win the draft lottery and find a quality PF with an inside and outside game. If any of these criteria are not fulfilled, I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't playing in Brooklyn in the future.

New York: The Knicks have a lot to spend. Problem is, they only have 3 guys or so locked into their future: Douglas, Gallinari and Chandler. All 3 are valuable pieces, considering Douglas and Gallinari have quality 3-pt shots, and Chandler has the ability to have one. When you're looking to acquire playmaking superstars, you want them surrounded with guys who can either score or play defense. Sure, none of these guys are very good defensive players, and problematically for the Knicks, defense wins championships. While there are good defensive-minded big men in this year's free-agency, none of them are the max-contract guys: Bosh is a questionable defender (and would probably continue to be on a D'Antoni team), Stoudemire only plays it when he feels like it, Boozer's size limits his defensive capabilities, and so on. This is one advantage the Nets have on the Knicks: they already have a good defender with length under contract.

With New York comes the glitz and an entirely new and enormous marketing platform, in addition to the fun the city has to offer. The question is whether or not, even in free agency, they can find the pieces to genuinely set him (or any free agent, for that matter) up for a championship run. In addition to their problems with starting lineup pieces, they are missing a bench. As this (and many other) 2nd season has demonstrated, a bench is key to making noise in the playoffs (Tony Allen much?). 

Thoughts: The advantages that New York has to be offered, at worst, can be countered by New Jersey, considering the team will only be a borough away in not too long. Thus, while New York will surely pick up some kind of something this off season, I highly doubt it will be a LeBron or Wade.

Miami: Miami is in a unique position; they have a proven championship-level superstar, and they want another. They have some (but not very many) players under contract for next season, have voiced their willingness to demote or fire Spoesltra (which I personally think is foolish), are located in a vacation town, and have sound management. Their situation is hard-to-address, I think, because they are capable of being both very competitive and persuasive in the free agent market this off-season, however, I think they're severely limited in terms of their capacity to compete in the sign-and-trade market; the only notable piece they have to offer is Beasley (since their future draft picks in a post sign-and-trade world would not be very good) and he has proven to have on and off court issues. 

Thoughts: Anything can happen this summer in Miami, and I mean anything. In all likelihood, I think they'll land a notable free agent, though not through a sign-and-trade. This could severely limit their options, or Pat Riley is a Jedi and will be able to coerce / convince a max-contract player to take the pay cut and bask in the glow of the Miami Sun alongside Flash. This could be LeBron, and he could be enough to convince a complementary star to take a little less in money in order to near-guarantee a fistful of rings.

Thunder: OKC has a lot of cap space; their core is comprised of players too young to have acquired their actual value contract-wise, and that puts OKC in a very peculiar position. They can either make a deal now and just wait to bite the luxury-tax bullet (because their slate of untradeables [Durant and Westbrook] are going to be max or near-max contracts), or they can trade pieces (such as Krstic, Green, or Harden) which are all very valuable assets, or they can stand pat and let their younger pieces grow together as a unit, potentially making them an extremely in-tune and talented team (or, at least, more so than now). 

Thoughts: OKC will do something notable this off season, but I don't think it will have to do with a max-contract player inasmuch as that could seriously damage their current group's chemistry. I wouldn't be surprised if they were able to fanagle their way into a Joel Pryzbilla or Udonis Haslem-type player; a bigger center who can give them length in the front court and rebound more consistently than Krstic. I also wouldn't be surprised if they traded a bench piece or two, maybe with 2010 second round pick[s] or something to move up a little in this year's draft, in order to pick up another serviceable big.

L.A. Clippers: Clippers fans, at this point, are just waiting to really see Blake Griffin in action. They have a near-all star center in Chris Kaman (who proved this past season he is capable of being pretty good), a talented scorer in Eric Gordon, and that leaves them with weakness at the SF and PG spot. They still have Boom Diddy, and he's probably not going anywhere; he'd probably also become a cancer if moving to the bench. Thus, their most glaring hole is at SF. They are positioned to do fairly well in the draft, which is also an added benefit inasmuch as they can either improve their bench there, through free agency, or by re-signing (and not having it count against the cap) their current players: Outlaw and Blake. LeBron’s chances of coming here are slim; playing in the same town as Kobe surely would not be fun spotlight-wise, though it would drastically polarize the games at Staples Center.

Thoughts: I really think the Clippers will do one of two things: outbid Memphis for Gay (which I think is a really great move for their team so long as he continues to penetrate instead of settling for 3s, they have Davis and Gordon for that), or acquire Joe Johnson (which I think is a bad move, he demands the ball to be in his hands too much, which will likely cause chemistry issues with Davis, and is, honestly, probably not big enough to play that part of the floor). If the Clips make the wrong move by waiting too long in hopes of courting James, they might end up with something worse. I think that LeBron’s impact on free agency this summer is what creates these 2 trade possibilities.

Minnesota: Nothing important is going to happen here, or for the next couple years. Their draft choices this year will probably resemble last year's - splurging on a particular type of player in order to accumulate assets they can evaluate and then trade or keep based on performance. Could be a smart rebuilding strategy, but can also be a very, very long one.

Chicago: The windy city is in a weird position to mix things up this summer; they have cap space and what I think are fictionally non-toxic assets. There has been a lot of talk swirling around Deng and Hinrich being trade pieces, but the fact of the matter is that these guys are overpaid. Any reasonable GM can see that. Currently, Chicago is seen as one of the favorites to grab LeBron this summer, but I seriously doubt it: he seems too egotistical to willingly play in Jordan’s shadows, something I think will weigh considerably on his decision-making process. At the same time, they do have a solid core of Rose of Noah, however, they still lack a shot-changing big man. Luckily, there are a few of those available on the market this summer (Pryzbilla, Haslem, etc.), and adding a guy like that and sliding Noah over to PF seems to leave the Bulls only a game-changing SF away from genuinely being a championship contender. If LeBron is in it to win it, he will seriously think about the Bulls if they make the right complementary moves to prime them for being that one piece away.

Thoughts: I think Chicago comes up short on the LeBron chase, and ends up making a scramble move to grab a player like Boozer or Johnson which, while helpful, will not be enough to put them in a championship conversation.

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Now on to teams with little cap space, but sign-and-trade assets:

Dallas: Everyone thinks the Mavs have assets for a sign-and-trade, but to me, this is foolish with the exception of Dampier. Butler performed miserably in the playoffs sans one game, and is not an expiring deal. Marion and Kidd are probably not desired by anyone else, they traded away a valuable expiring deal in Josh Howard, and the quality assets they have (Barea, Beaubois) are probably pieces they don't want to give away just yet. They, like us, could have the fortune of having their cornerstone opt out and then be re-signed, which doesn't count against the luxury tax, opening up their ability to sign a max-contract guy through a sign-and-trade of some sort. Many have speculated about Bosh coming to Dallas, but that kind of front court seems massively instrategic: neither are genuinely 'shot-changers' nor does either have a refined low-post game.

Thoughts: If the Mavs make a move this summer, it will probably A. be another blunder, and B. will most definitely not be for Bosh. Lebron is not going to Dallas, and the possibility of him going somewhere not in Ohio, as I have said, will genuinely mitigate the possibility of teams like Dallas acquiring big-name talent this summer.

Cleveland: Cleveland has Lebron, Shaq and Ilgauskas as their two most important expiring deals. Gilbert has demonstrated he has a ‘spare no expense’ attitude in terms of keeping Lebron and doing whatever it takes to make him happy. The Cavs are also knee-deep in toxic assets including, but not limited to: Mo Williams, Jamario Moon, Antawn Jamison, etc etc. The biggest question mark on Cleveland is two-fold: how much Gilbert is willing to take on financially at risk of flaming out early in the playoffs again, and how much faith does Lebron have in a group that will mostly remain the same, with the ability to add one more piece.

Thoughts: I think Lebron has a 40% chance of staying where he is, and that chance is absolutely contingent on whether or not Bosh or Stoudemire come to Cleveland. Their chances of landing a player of that caliber aren’t bad, but they’re not a surefire thing either, nor is it the right move for them (inasmuch as they, in my eyes, need a quality C and PF, and don’t really have either)

Phoenix: Judging by their playoff success, it seems like Steve Kerr is going to be scrambling to make sure Stoudemire stays in the valley of the sun, and that he will balk at most, if not all, sign-and-trade offers. They do, however, have a lot of assets to work with; their bench has played pretty well, and while I don’t think they’ll win the west (and in the event they do, they still won’t win a ‘ship this year), they are only a piece or 2 away from re-emerging as a contender in the future.

Thoughts: A lot, and by a lot I mean almost everything, depends on the growth of Robin Lopez as a banger. If he grows at the rate he is now, and avoids future long-term injuries, he can genuinely be their Andrew Bynum and make that team, as a whole, a lot better / put them in championship conversation for a while, inasmuch as I think Dragic’s growth as a player has been phenomenal, and once Steve gets a little too old, he’ll be able to take over for him. With all this in mind, I think Stoudemire drops the shenanigans, though not until almost-August, and remains a Sun, even in light of the possibility of playing with LeBron. He knows he won’t move in a sign-and-trade (and thus would have to make less money), would be a lesser star and would probably see less usage. I think the Suns are one of the few teams who can keep their star and truthfully boast the possibility of a championship, especially considering the aging of the Lakers, the delicate balance of the Nuggets, and the injury-woes of Houston.

L.A. Lakers: First, LeBron is not coming here; that much should be obvious, and if you think otherwise, you might need to stop sleeping with your head next to a microwave. A lot of analysts like to conjure up the notion of the Lakers having tradable assets, but there are a couple problems here. First, Bynum has been too injury-prone to be considered a realistically tradable asset. There is just too much of a risk and the reward really isn’t that great. Second, Pau had a career before Kobe, that of which was demonstrative of how he wasn’t going to get far without being paired with a superstar wing; thus, the teams that have a desire for a player like Gasol would either need to have a star wing (most of which don’t) or acquire one through other means, which is no easy task. Combine that with the fact that his contract was recently extended and his age, and he’s definitely a lot less tradable than most think. In fact, the only genuinely valuable trade assets they have (no long-term commitments and solid talent) are their backup PGs, Farmar and Brown, and the Lakers would have to be offered something significant that can also fit in their delicate balance of current play in order for a deal to unfold.

Thoughts: A lot of people will bulls**t something about the Lakers being involved in potential trades, but in reality they are going to be the same team for the next couple years.

Houston: Houston’s chances of landing LeBron are about on level with our chances of winning the lottery this year: ridiculously slim but still not impossible. A meaningful concern, however, is how LeBron’s free agency will affect our chances of landing Chris Bosh. Sure, some dispute that he is not necessary for a championship run, but in my eyes, we don’t have as many offensive threats as necessary to win a championship. Thus, how will LeBron affect the movement of Bosh? In my eyes, the only real threat at this point is New Jersey, though that can chance if Chicago or Cleveland make the right moves to create the possibility of signing a player of this caliber. Thus, barring any unforeseen drastic changes in the willingness of other teams to make bad moves and take on the likes of Deng, Hinrich, Jamison, etc, the market for Bosh is going to be pretty slim: namely Miami, Houston, New Jersey and possibly Chicago.

Thoughts: I think Houston stands a 30-40% chance of landing Bosh; we certainly have the assets necessary to make a great deal that will benefit both franchises, however, as Xiane has noted, this may simply be a case of ‘Big name talent doesn’t want to play here.’ We’ll see and hopefully things go our way.

It's known that everyone in Houston has a hard-on for Chris Bosh. That much is undeniable. Many have analyzed the likes of Chicago, Miami and Dallas potentially landing the unrestricted free agent; however, not much has been said about the teams that stand a chance of hitting it big in the lottery that also have cap room to spare.

I think the lottery thing is a HUGE deal incentive-wise. New York has no lottery pick this year, and disgustingly enough, Utah does. I played the lottery machine about 20 times, and 3 or 4 times Utah came up with the No. 2 pick. Barf. Anyway, New Jersey is the favorite to win the lottery or come in at a close 2nd. Right now, their lineup looks like this:

devin harris / , pg

courtney lee / jarvis hayes, sg

trenton hassell / terrence williams, sf

yi jianlin / josh boone, pf

brook lopez, c

Suppose (and it's definitely not much of a stretch) that the Nets win the lottery and pick up John Wall. To me, they instantly have the best trade package for a player like Bosh inasmuch as they'd be able to offer Devin Harris, Josh Boone's contract, and a pick or two. Then they'd have a core of wall, bosh and lopez, with yi coming off the bench. New Jersey is going to be playing in Brooklyn in the not-too-distant future, which then gives you the added flashiness of playing in a huge city coupled with what looks like a pretty solid team on paper.

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Honestly, I can't see another lottery-bound team being able to offer up a great package (except for maybe Golden State, who could conceivably offer Stephen Curry and a big man like Anthony Randolph [if they win John Wall]), but New Jersey, in my eyes, has a good shot at picking up that caliber of a player, and would still have money to sign a 2nd tier big name like Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson (assuming it's safe to call him that after his awful playoff performance).

I'm going to preface this with thinking that ak2themax said that he can't do a game preview today because of traveling, or something like that.

Tonight is a big game, as is the rest of the games this season if we have any shot of making the playoffs. Both San Antonio and Portland (the two teams we have any realistic shot of catching in the playoff race) are beginning to play pretty well, and a caller on KILT 610 the other night pointed out that the Rockets must finish the season 14-4 in order to tie Portland if they finish 7-7 (they have played 4 more games than us this season). That's quite the task, considering we still have games left against a lot of +.500  teams.

Denver is coming to Houston on a 6-game winning streak, and looking for their first season sweep of the Rockets in 32 years and having vanquished New Orleans and Memphis in their last two games. The Rockets are looking for their first 3-game winning streak in a long, long time. Said streak would tie the longest for the season. The last time Denver visited Houston, they played without Carmelo Anthony, but got big games from Billups and Smith, pulling away in the 4th quarter despite the good guys being up by as much as 15 early in the game.

Matchups:

PG: Aaron Brooks v. Chauncey Billups:  Chauncey Billups is kind of really good at basketball. He is big for his position, an amazing passer, solid 3-point shooter and plays great defense. Not much can be said about him that hasn't been said here, on ESPN, or illustrated by his career. Aaron has been struggling lately; to be frank, he is taking too many shots, and they are not the smartest shot attempts. This problem is especially visible in late-game situations - his dribble for 22 seconds and shoot strategy has cost us games recently (see: Detroit), or let bad teams get in the game (see: Washington). Aaron has had some bad games against Billups, but he's also had some great games against him. Still. . .

Advantage: Nuggets

SG: Kevin Martin v. Aaron Afflalo: For clarity's sake, basketball-reference has Afflalo listed as Denver's starting SG. Kevin Martin had a quiet 20 points Saturday night, and continues to play pretty well as a Rocket. Afflalo can play decent defense, but I imagine him getting the Blue Light Special tonight. Don't be surprised if Kevin has a 25-30 point game tonight; then again, you should probably never be surprised if he dumps that many points on someone.

Advantage: Rockets

SF: Trevor Ariza v. Carmelo Anthony: Melo continues to be a monster this season, having dropped 24 and 6 on Memphis the other night. Ariza is starting to make decent strides, having posted a double-double against the Nets. The key phrase in that sentence, however, is 'against the Nets.' Help defense is going to be so crucial in this game - if the Rockets make Melo take the lion's share of his team's shots and keep the passing lanes closed, we stand a chance. Otherwise, we're toast. Even if we do execute a solid defensive game plan, Melo still might win it anyway for his team. He's done it before.

Advantage: Nuggets

PF: Luis Scola v. Johan Petro: The Nuggets have been bitten particularly hard by the injury bug in the front court department, so I'm making an educated guess about who starts at PF for them. He's only averaging 3 points and 3 rebounds this season, and had 5 and 5 against Memphis. Needless to say, the guy isn't used to seeing 20+ minutes a game, and that's probably going to show against Scola, who posted an epic career high this weekend. Interesting tidbit of info: Scola is the first Rocket since the Dream to hit 20 shots in a game, and that was in 1990. The Rockets need to lob it in to Scola, and play a more inside-out game against Denver in order to exploit their current glaring weakness in the post.

Advantage: Rockets, and clearly the most important advantage of tonight's game.

C: Chuck Hayes v. Nene Hilario: Nene is having a pretty solid season this year, averaging 14 and 8. He played pretty well against Houston their last visit here, and Scola is going to be exerting a lot of energy on the offensive end (hopefully). Subsequently, it's going to be on Hayes to really contain the Nuggets' only [current] front court weapon. Chuck has done it before, and knowing when he's gonna come to play is hard to tell.

Advantage: Nuggets, but definitely not set in stone

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Denver Bench: J.R. Smith is coming off an incredible 4th quarter against Memphis, and Anthony Carter has been playing well as of late. Unfortunately, for Denver, Andersen Balkman and Martin are all hurt, severely hurting their depth at the moment.

Conversely. . .

Houston Bench: Houston is finally at full strength in the wake of Lowry and Ariza's return. Battier has played OK off the bench, Lowry has been Lowry, and Jordan Hill is continuing to show why he was the 8th pick in the draft. This is a game where the bench really has to give it to Denver, given their weaknesses right now. Luckily, having a defensive-minded wing come off the bench (Battier) with a scoring wing (Budinger) means we might be able to slow down Smith while still putting points on the board.

Advantage: Houston, and once again is a crucial one.

All in all, Houston has looked more and more like they are playing to the level of their competition in the last week or two. Let's hope that continues tonight, so that the Rockets scrape out a victory. I'm gonna be at the game, and I think they've only lost 5-6 of the last 20 games I've attended, so here's to banking on my presence. 

Prediction: I really think the Rockets can scrape this one out tonight. Rockets by 6.

[[EDITED TO REFLECT REALIZATION OF CURRY'S STATUS AS SHIT]]

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yh72zuq

HOU gets: Iguodala, Jamison

WAS gets: Harrington, Scola, Hughes

PHI gets: Budinger, Cook, Taylor, Miller (Mike)

NYK gets: McGrady

The first major objection will probably be: Why would Washington want 2 PFs and a center back? Well, all 3 are expiring (which enables their rebuilding project) ,and gets at least 1 quality player in Scola, who is also expiring (I believe they hold his Bird rights in the summer). The acquisition of Scola would at least semi-appease Wiz fans after pissing them all off by doing such a lopsided deal with Dallas. They would have 3 new starters at the beginning of next week / this weekend, and would have some decent guys.

Philly gets value in Budinger (and for those who don't want to see Budinger go, he is definitely replaceable and, with the oncoming CBA meltdown, will be replaceable at a cheap rate) and Taylor, a decent player now in Miller, and an expiring in Cook. It's important to note Washington, Philly and NY all get expirings with the exception of Budinger.

New York has genuine interest in T-mac both as a player and as a contract; they also get rid of Harrington (giving them the ability to develop Jordan HIll this season) and Curry. 

We obviously bank on this trade; Iguodala allows Brooks to be a pure shooter since Iggy can distribute so well, and Jamison is still good for 20ppg right now. Their contracts are both big, but I genuinely think a Yao / Jamison / Battier or Ariza / Iguodala / Brooks starting lineup is a legitimate contending team - 3 offensive weapons in the starting lineup, 2 great wing defenders, and 2 shot changers in the paint.