orang3b
Feb 13, 2009 Dec 16, 2009 66 1070
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Finneran to IR
WR Brian Finneran moved to IR with a PCL injury.
2 days ago
orang3b
17 comments
0 recs
DVOA Matchup - New Orleans Saints
by orang3b on Dec 11, 2009 5:36 PM EST
5 comments
This is probably going to get ugly.
Overall:
| TEAM | TOTAL | WEIGHTED | OFFENSE | OFF. | DEFENSE | DEF. | S.T. | S.T. | |
| DVOA | RANK | DVOA | DVOA | RANK | DVOA | RANK | DVOA | RANK | |
| ATL | -6.50% | 21 | -11.40% | 6.30% | 18 | 12.70% | 27 | -0.10% | 19 |
| NO | 34.00% | 1 | 30.90% | 31.80% | 1 | -4.00% | 7 | -1.80% | 27 |
5 comments | 3 recs
Top 10 Cornerback Contracts
J.I. Halsell's analysis of the Top 10 CB contracts. He goes into great detail about how Nnamdi Asomugha's contract is head-and-shoulders above any other in the CB market, and why he is essentially untouchable until at least 2011 (and probably beyond). Also of note is that Darrelle Revis is an absolute steal for the Jets, as he is signed to his rookie contract through 2012 (though he will probably get an extension before then).
5 days ago
orang3b
1 comment
0 recs
DVOA Matchup - Philadelphia Eagles
by orang3b on Dec 4, 2009 4:16 PM EST
8 comments
I didn't do the Matchup post last week while I was out of town, but I'm back on track now. I'm glad Tloz gave us a good ol' shot of optimism, but DVOA paints a different picture. To put it bluntly, it's going to take a minor miracle to beat the Eagles, if we believe these numbers. (Reminder, DVOA explanation here).
When the Falcons have the ball:
| TEAM | PASS | RUSH | VARIANCE | RANK | ||||
| DVOA | RANK | PASSING | RANK | RUSHING | RANK | |||
| ATL Offense | 9.80% | 17 | 18.70% | 16 | 5.60% | 11 | 3.90% | 3 |
| PHI Defense | -11.00% | 3 | -15.00% | 4 | -5.70% | 16 | 8.40% | 26 |
Our Running Game against their Run Defense looks to be about even. We are clearly at a disadvantage in the Passing Game, though. The Eagles are #2 in Pass Defense against #1 WRs (allowing only 43 yards per game to top wideouts), and #6 agains "other" WRs. We're going to have to hope for a big game from Michael Jenkins, since they're only #18 against #2 WRs. They are #11 in Defensive DVOA (on a per-play basis) against TEs, but are allowing 70 yards per game (league average is 50 yards), since teams are trying to attack them this way (over 9 passes per game to opposing TEs).
Again the Variance looks to be in our favor. They are generally a good Defense, but occasionally have very poor games. We've consistently been in the middle of the pack Offensively, but injuries may make even that fairly low standard of output difficult to reach.
Like the Matchup with the Giants, the two Offensive Lines have fairly similar numbers, but our opponents have the vastly superior Defensive Line. They are #6 in Adjusted Line Yards (Run Defense) and #7 in Adjusted Sack Rate (we are obviously well south of these numbers).
Their best player on Defense is Trent Cole, and he is an absolute stud as a pass rusher and against the run. The weakest link on their "D", according to PFF, is Safety Sean Jones. Hopefully Mularkey can find a way to get him or LB Chris Gocong consistently matched up with Tony G.
8 comments | 3 recs
Christopher Owens' First Start at LCB
by orang3b on Dec 4, 2009 2:15 PM EST
9 comments
Rookie Christopher Owens got his first start at Left Cornerback against Tampa Bay last week, and has already been named the starter against the Eagles. I wanted to get a better idea of how he performed, so I charted the game a few nights ago, taking notes as I went, trying to focus specifically on his pass coverage. Since he only had 5 tackles and I obviously don't have access to the coaches tape, there's not a whole lot to go on. Jump for my initial impressions.
9 comments | 1 recs
Digging Deeper into the Box Score: Week 11
by orang3b on Dec 3, 2009 5:40 PM EST
2 comments
Overtime @NYG. Again, minimal commentary - just some numbers.
Offense
Ryan's 268-2-0 seems pretty good until you see that it took 46 attempts to get there, a 5.8 YPA. Most of his work was over the Middle of the field and Short (0-9 yards, 16 attempts, 4.1 YPA). He had decent success Middle of the field and Medium (10-19 yards, 8 attempts, TD) depth.
The numbers for Gonzalez (8/14) and Booker (1/4) were below where they should've been, but Roddy's 33% Catch Rate (4/12) was one of the biggest factors in the sluggish passing game. He was shut down by Corey Webster (2/9 for 16 yards with him in coverage, per PFF).
2 comments | 2 recs
Digging Deeper into the Box Score: Week 10
by orang3b on Dec 3, 2009 3:11 PM EST
0 comments
Yes, Week 10 @CAR. I'm not really going to include any commentary for these next few - just the stats, as I'm trying to catch up.
Offense
3:40 remaining in 2Q, 1&10 @ ATL28: M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for M.Jenkins INTERCEPTED by S.Martin at ATL 45. S.Martin to ATL 33 for 12 yards (T.Gonzalez).
3:59 remaining in 4Q, 1&10 @ CAR49: M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for M.Jenkins INTERCEPTED by R.Marshall at CAR 21. R.Marshall to CAR 49 for 28 yards (M.Jenkins).
0 comments | 2 recs
Black and Blue Report: December 3, 2009
Injury information from Will Carroll of Football Outsiders. Lots of good info on Matt Ryan and Michael Turner (but it's all bad news).
13 days ago
orang3b
5 comments
1 recs
What's wrong with Jay Cutler?
Doug Farrar and Greg Cosell investigate why Cutler is struggling so bad with the Bears. What is interesting to me is how some of these things seem to apply to Matt Ryan:
1) Very often, when quarterbacks take shots early in games, you see them start to lose their mechanics over the course of a game, get rid of the ball too early, start to play too fast.
2) Do you try to play the game to throw four yard passes, three-step drops, five-step drops, just so he doesn’t throw interceptions?
3) When Cutler Ryan hit tight end Greg Olsen Tony Gonzalez for a three-yard out on third-and-five, Olsen Gonzo could gain only one more yard after the catch because cornerback Cedric Griffin Ronde Barber and linebacker Chad Greenway Geno Hayes were playing close in, waiting for the short pass, and knowing that the Bears Falcons had admitted defeat in a strategic sense. Three quick passes, and a three-and-out.
Even if you don't think it relates well to Ryan's struggles, it is still an interesting read.
13 days ago
orang3b
11 comments
0 recs
DVOA Matchup - NY Giants
by orang3b on Nov 20, 2009 10:42 AM EST
4 comments
This is my first attempt at a Matchup post, so if I'm leaving something out that you guys think I'm overlooking, just let me know in the comments. I'm going to try to find areas the Falcons can exploit, or where we are especially vulnerable - using Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, explained here). A quick explanation is that it is a percentage above or below average, with positive numbers good for Offense and negative numbers good for Defense.
Just so everybody is clear, I'm going to list the DVOA, then the league Rank, because what does a 58.7% Passing Offense mean (besides 50%+ better than average)? I think it's easier to understand if I tell you that's the #1 Passing Offense in the league (that's the Patriots, by the way). The DVOA number is more important, because there may be a huge gap between #5 and #6, but both numbers together should give everybody a good idea of where we stand.
4 comments | 2 recs
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