SB Nation User Blog: orang3b

DVOA Matchup - NY Jets

orang3b — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:16:50 -0000

Overall:

TEAM	TOTAL		OFFENSE	OFF.	DEFENSE	DEF.	S.T.	S.T.
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	DVOA	RANK	DVOA	RANK	DVOA	RANK
ATL	-3.50%	22	8.30%	16	12.00%	26	0.20%	18
NYJ	8.70%	15	-11.00%	23	-17.30%	1	2.30%	9

This looks to be a fairly even matchup before you factor in the Home Field Advantage. The Jets are slightly above average, and the Falcons are slightly below average. The good thing is that the Jets may not be able to take advantage of our biggest weakness.

When the Falcons have the ball:

TEAM				PASS		RUSH	VAR.	RANK
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	PASSING	RANK	RUSHING	RANK	VAR.	RANK
ATL-Offense	8.30%	16	19.30%	15	2.50%	13	4.50%	2
NYJ-Defense	-17.30%	1	-27.60%	1	-6.60%	15	11.50%	31

DVOA says that the Jets have the #1 Overall Defense, and the #1 Pass Defense. In the "Watch Out for Darrelle Revis" Post, I said Redman (or Ryan) should throw to whichever WR is on the opposite side of the field as their shutdown CB. The problem? They are great against every single type of receiver: 4th against #1's, 4th against #2's, 3rd against "Other WR's", 8th against TE's and 2nd against RB's in the passing game. For all the talk about Rex Ryan being blitz happy, they don't really have that many Sacks (tied for 18th in the league). Our O-Line against their defensive front 7 should be a wash, at the worst. Once again, we are facing a team with a high Variance number. Our best bet looks like pounding them in the running game, and hope their defense has a "bad game" overall.

When the Jets have the ball:

TEAM				PASS		RUSH	VAR.	RANK
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	PASSING	RANK	RUSHING	RANK	VAR.	RANK
ATL-Defense	12.00%	26	30.30%	29	-9.50%	10	5.30%	15
NYJ-Offense	-11.00%	23	-19.60%	26	3.90%	12	6.50%	17

Those numbers look pretty close across the board, huh? Obvously, Thomas Jones is our biggest concern when the Falcons are on Defense. Football Outsiders says their success in the running game should be credited more credited to the O-Line (ranked #11 in Adjusted Line Yards) that Jones (only a 0.2% individual DVOA), but either way, they are usually able to get the job done. We have been pretty good against the run this season, and our defensive gameplan should be to make Sanchez beat us in the air. Even though Delhomme and Josh Freeman had good games against our terrible pass defense, Sanchez (-22.7% DVOA) is in the same ballpark as those guys, and is coming off an injury. If he is unable to play (he's listed as Probable), Clemens (-40.8% DVOA) has been even worse. Also of note, their O-Line is pretty poor in Pass Protection (#25 in Adjusted Sack Rate), so hopefully we can get some pressure on the QB (of course, our D-Line is 25th in ASR on defense, so that may be a wash, as well).

Special Teams:

The Jets have the #9 overall Special Teams according to DVOA, and are solid in every aspect of the kicking games besides Kick Returns, where they are only slightly below average. We are still #1 in Kickoffs/Kick Coverage, and have just this week moved out of last place in FG/XP kicks.

Finneran to IR

orang3b — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 20:52:49 -0000

Finneran to IR

WR Brian Finneran moved to IR with a PCL injury.

DVOA Matchup - New Orleans Saints

orang3b — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:00:38 -0000

This is probably going to get ugly.

Overall:

TEAM	TOTAL		WEIGHTED	OFFENSE	OFF.	DEFENSE	DEF.	S.T.	S.T.
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	DVOA	DVOA	RANK	DVOA	RANK	DVOA	RANK
ATL	-6.50%	21	-11.40%	6.30%	18	12.70%	27	-0.10%	19
NO	34.00%	1	30.90%	31.80%	1	-4.00%	7	-1.80%	27

When the Falcons have the ball:

TEAM				PASS		RUSH
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	PASSING	RANK	RUSHING	RANK
ATL Offense	6.30%	18	16.20%	16	2.50%	14
NO Defense	-4.00%	7	-12.50%	6	7.00%	26

The only area the Saints pass defense is below average is to "other WR's" (and they're #17 there). They are #2 against #1 WR's and #2 against TE's. Don't expect a huge game from Tony G. We can at least hope that with all the Cornerback injuries for them, maybe Roddy can have a good game. Really, we should be attacking them with the run game, though. It is their weakest area on defense, and it gives Brees less time with the ball.

When the Saints have the ball:

TEAM				PASS		RUSH
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	PASSING	RANK	RUSHING	RANK
ATL	12.70%	27	30.40%	29	-7.40%	15
NO	31.80%	1	52.20%	3	19.20%	2

The Saints Offense has no statistical weakness. Brees will have his choice which weapon to use in the passing game - we are near the bottom of the league in every singly area of coverage. Colston, Henderson, Meachem, Shockey, Thomas (did I miss anybody?) could all have decent games catching the ball. Whichever RB they plug in should be able to pick up decent yardage on the ground. Their Offensive Line is one of the best in the NFL: they are #4 in Adjusted Sack Rate (pass protection), and all the way up to #2 in Adjusted Line Yards (run blocking). The Falcons have not shown any recent evidence that they will be able to slow this juggernaut.

Special Teams:

What looks to be our one advantage isn't really that much of an advantage, the way things match up. They are above average in Kickoff Returns, but we are still #1 in Kickoffs/KO Coverage. We are below average in Punts/Punt Coverage, but they are slightly worse at Punt Returns. The only place where there is a sliver of hope is when (if) the Saints punt - they're slightly below average in Punts/Punt Coverage, and we are slightly above average in Punt Returns.

Summary:

Like I said, this could get ugly. Go back up to the top to compare the "Weighted" DVOA numbers. They slightly discount the games earlier in the year. Yes, the Saints have had some struggles recently (besides MNF vs. the Pats), but the Falcons are even further away (-3.1% for NO; -4.9% for ATL) from their early performance, as if we didn't already know that without looking at the numbers.

Top 10 Cornerback Contracts

orang3b — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:03:13 -0000

Top 10 Cornerback Contracts

J.I. Halsell's analysis of the Top 10 CB contracts. He goes into great detail about how Nnamdi Asomugha's contract is head-and-shoulders above any other in the CB market, and why he is essentially untouchable until at least 2011 (and probably beyond). Also of note is that Darrelle Revis is an absolute steal for the Jets, as he is signed to his rookie contract through 2012 (though he will probably get an extension before then).

DVOA Matchup - Philadelphia Eagles

orang3b — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:47:52 -0000

I didn't do the Matchup post last week while I was out of town, but I'm back on track now. I'm glad Tloz gave us a good ol' shot of optimism, but DVOA paints a different picture. To put it bluntly, it's going to take a minor miracle to beat the Eagles, if we believe these numbers. (Reminder, DVOA explanation here).

When the Falcons have the ball:

TEAM				PASS		RUSH	VARIANCE	RANK
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	PASSING	RANK	RUSHING	RANK	VARIANCE	RANK
ATL Offense	9.80%	17	18.70%	16	5.60%	11	3.90%	3
PHI Defense	-11.00%	3	-15.00%	4	-5.70%	16	8.40%	26

Our Running Game against their Run Defense looks to be about even. We are clearly at a disadvantage in the Passing Game, though. The Eagles are #2 in Pass Defense against #1 WRs (allowing only 43 yards per game to top wideouts), and #6 agains "other" WRs. We're going to have to hope for a big game from Michael Jenkins, since they're only #18 against #2 WRs. They are #11 in Defensive DVOA (on a per-play basis) against TEs, but are allowing 70 yards per game (league average is 50 yards), since teams are trying to attack them this way (over 9 passes per game to opposing TEs).

Again the Variance looks to be in our favor. They are generally a good Defense, but occasionally have very poor games. We've consistently been in the middle of the pack Offensively, but injuries may make even that fairly low standard of output difficult to reach.

Like the Matchup with the Giants, the two Offensive Lines have fairly similar numbers, but our opponents have the vastly superior Defensive Line. They are #6 in Adjusted Line Yards (Run Defense) and #7 in Adjusted Sack Rate (we are obviously well south of these numbers).

Their best player on Defense is Trent Cole, and he is an absolute stud as a pass rusher and against the run. The weakest link on their "D", according to PFF, is Safety Sean Jones. Hopefully Mularkey can find a way to get him or LB Chris Gocong consistently matched up with Tony G.

When the Eagles have the ball:

TEAM				PASS		RUSH	VAR.	RANK
TEAM	DVOA	RANK	PASSING	RANK	RUSHING	RANK	VAR.	RANK
ATL Defense	11.10%	25	28.90%	29	-9.30%	12	6.00%	18
PHI Offense	14.00%	12	24.50%	15	13.40%	6	9.50%	28

That Rush Offense looks a little wonky to me, but remeber that it is an efficiency number. Andy Reid likes to maintain that 25-75 Run/Pass Ratio (I'm only exaggerating a little), so teams have to gameplan for the Passing Game. Again, Philly is near the bottom of the league in Variance. They may come out gangbusters, or they may come out totally flat.

Our Pass Defense is sandwiched between STL and CLE - not good company, to say the least. We are now below average in every aspect of Pass Defense: Defending WRs, TEs, RBs, and Sack Rate. Against WRs is especially bad: #32 against #1 WRs, #27 against #2 WRs, and #28 against "other" WRs. You would think having DeSean Jackson out would provide hope, but DVOA says both Jeremy Maclin (8.8% DVOA, 12.9 YPC) and Jason Avant (31.3% DVOA, 76% Catch Rate) have been better (on a per-play basis, at least). I don't expect either of them to have any trouble. TE Brent Celek should have plenty of room to operate, as well.

Special Teams:

Hopefully with the recent changes, we won't have the worst FG/XP team from this point forward. We are still first in Kickoffs/KO Coverage, though. David Akers makes Philly well above average in FG/XP and Kickoffs/KO Coverage. The Eagles are the #3 team in Punt Returns (and the Falcons are well below average in Punts/Punt Coverage), but without DeSean Jackson, they may not be as dangerous. Then again, if Maclin fills in there too, they may not miss a beat.

Overall:

TEAM	TOTAL
TEAM	DVOA	RANK
ATL	-1.30%	18
PHI	30.60%	4

Even though the records are similar, the numbers show that the Eagles are a much stronger team overall. Football Outsiders puts about even with teams like Indianapolis and Minnesota, while the Falcons are just ahead of teams like San Fransisco and Jacksonville. Taking into account all the injuries to the stars on offense, our biggest advantages look to simply be Homefield Advantage, and the Eagles crazy Variance numbers. This is one of the most important games of the year, and looks like one of the toughest. Thank goodness they play the games on the field, not on paper (or inside computers).

Christopher Owens' First Start at LCB

orang3b — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:47:07 -0000

Rookie Christopher Owens got his first start at Left Cornerback against Tampa Bay last week, and has already been named the starter against the Eagles. I wanted to get a better idea of how he performed, so I charted the game a few nights ago, taking notes as I went, trying to focus specifically on his pass coverage. Since he only had 5 tackles and I obviously don't have access to the coaches tape, there's not a whole lot to go on. Jump for my initial impressions.

According to Pro Football Focus, he played 47 of the 60 total defensive snaps at LCB. Grimes was in for 10 snaps (apparently, Houston was the only CB on the field for 3 plays). Houston played 58 of 60 snaps at RCB, with Tye Hill replacing him (instead of entering the mix at LCB) for 2 plays - we'll get to that later.

Play #1: TB drive starting at 10:22 left in 1Q, their first offensive drive, 1&10 @ TB 36. (Shotgun) J.Freeman pass short right to J.Stevens to TB 42 for 6 yards (M.Peterson) [J.Anderson]. Stevens is Peterson's man, and he makes the tackle. I just noted that if he had missed the tackle, Owens was right there to help clean up. And yes, that's a QB Hit for JA98 - he had a very good game (which I'll cover in the next "Digging Deeper").

Play #2: TB drive starting at 3:50 left in 2Q, 2&14 @ ATL 41. (Shotgun) J.Freeman pass short right to S.Stroughter to ATL 29 for 12 yards (C.Owens). If you ever want to see a good example of why I don't think John Abraham should be dropping into coverage so often, re-watch this play. He is the one in coverage on this play (covering a WR in his zone), and he is just screwed up from the start. His feet were going the wrong way 3 different times on this play. The catch is made 7 yards downfield, with 5 YAC before Owens comes in with a good tackle to clean up Abe's mess.

Play #3: First play from scrimmage in 3Q, 1&10 @ TB 20. J.Freeman pass short right to E.Graham pushed ob at TB 35 for 15 yards (C.Owens). It is a swing pass 3 yards downfield to FB Graham. Owens is in good position to make the stop, but he gets stiff armed/bowled over before dragging him down after allowing an additional 12 YAC.

Play #4: TB drive starting at 6:38 remaining in 4Q, their last drive before Redman's game-winner, 1&10 @ TB 33. D.Ward right tackle to TB 35 for 2 yards (C.Owens). DeCoud moves in as 8th man "in the box", setting the edge as the force defender as the WR motions from across the formation into an H-back position. That leaves nobody to block Owens, who loops around to tackle Ward from behind.

Play #5: Next play of the same drive, 2&8 @ TB 35. J.Freeman pass short right to A.Bryant pushed ob at TB 46 for 11 yards (C.Owens). Quick pass on a 3-step drop. Owens had decent coverage on the short pass (Distance 6), but he again gave up a bit too much after the reception (5 YAC).

Play #6: Same drive, a few plays later, 3&5 @ ATL 49. (Shotgun) J.Freeman pass short middle to S.Stroughter to ATL 39 for 10 yards (C.Lofton). I have Lofton listed as the man in coverage (on a WR again), but really it was a hole/soft-spot in the zone coverage. They showed a heavy blitz look pre-snap, but ended up only rushing 3, with one of the DT's dropping into a middle zone. With a bit of a bunch formation to the offensive right, Owens is outside and deep(ish), Chevis Jackson is covering a guy in the short slot, and the route combination stretches the zone and allows an opening for Stroughter for the 10 yard catch (zero YAC).

Play #7: Same drive, next play, 1&10 @ ATL 39. D.Ward right end to ATL 37 for 2 yards (C.Owens). Almost identical to Play #4.

A couple other general notes: 1) He seemed to shy away from contact early in the game if another defender seemed to have the play stopped, but he was willing to mix it up late in the game. 2) He didn't miss any tackles, but he also didn't have a great game in that area - he always let the ballcarrier get an extra 2-3 yards (or more) falling forward. 3) The few plays where the CB's were lined up close to the Line of Scrimmage (instead of 8-10 yards of cushion) he seemed to get a decent jam on the WR before disappearing off-screen.

Here's the coverage numbers for everybody, since I went ahead and charted the whole game:

Name	Targets	Distance	YAC	Catch Rate	Average Pass Yards
Stephen Nicholas	7	7.3	3.3	86%	8.4
Chevis Jackson	4	4.8	0	50%	2.3
Thomas DeCoud*	3	11.7	N/A	0%	0.0
Chris Houston	3	5.3	1.3	100%	6.7
*Christopher Owens*	2	*4.5*	*8.5*	*100%*	*13.0*
Brent Grimes	2	10.5	3.0	50%	9.0
Tye Hill*	2	32.0	7.5	100%	39.5
Curtis Lofton	2	6.5	2.5	100%	9.0
Mike Peterson	1	4.0	2.0	100%	6.0
John Abraham	1	7.0	5.0	100%	12.0
Chauncey Davis	1	4.0	N/A	0%	0.0

*If you compare this to PFF, know that they gave credit/blame to DeCoud instead of Hill on a 38 yard reception by Antonio Bryant in the Second Quarter. He very well could've been DeCoud's man, and DeCoud definitely screwed up by stumbling and/or taking a false step outside when Bryant faked Corner and went Post instead. But Hill was the closest man at the reception, and that's the best way I know to determine who is in coverage. Plus, on the wide shot in replay, they looked like they were in 3-Deep coverage, with Hill responsible for that third of the field (DeCoud in middle third), and he was in no-man's land (there wasn't a threat in front of him, but he wasn't deep enough to cover deep). What is important to note is that Houston came out on two plays, and TB attacked Hill when he was out there. The very next play was the 42 yard TD to Bryant over Hill. Originally, he looked like he was in good coverage, but the replay showed that he got beat by several steps early, and was only close because the ball was underthrown by Freeman.

Reminder:

Targets: Number of plays this defender was listed in coverage.

Distance: Average pass distance in the air on Targets (does not include Yards After Catch).

YAC: Average Yards After the Catch allowed.

Average Pass Yards: Average Yards gained on plays with this defender listed in coverage (including incomplete passes).

Final Thoughts: Two pass Targets, and five total Tackles is not much to go on, but apparently the coaches saw something on film that they liked, since he was named the starter for the Eagles game. Hopefully he'll be up to the task.

Digging Deeper into the Box Score: Week 11

orang3b — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 22:03:46 -0000

Overtime @NYG. Again, minimal commentary - just some numbers.

Offense

Ryan's 268-2-0 seems pretty good until you see that it took 46 attempts to get there, a 5.8 YPA. Most of his work was over the Middle of the field and Short (0-9 yards, 16 attempts, 4.1 YPA). He had decent success Middle of the field and Medium (10-19 yards, 8 attempts, TD) depth.

The numbers for Gonzalez (8/14) and Booker (1/4) were below where they should've been, but Roddy's 33% Catch Rate (4/12) was one of the biggest factors in the sluggish passing game. He was shut down by Corey Webster (2/9 for 16 yards with him in coverage, per PFF).

Defense

Name	Plays	Stop Rate	Defeats
Mike Peterson	10	30%	0
Curtis Lofton	9	33%	2
Chris Houston	8.5	47%	0
Brent Grimes	7	36%	2
Erik Coleman	6	25%	1.5
Stephen Nicholas	4.5	67%	1.5
Thomas DeCoud	4.5	11%	0
Chauncey Davis	3.5	71%	0
Jonathan Babineaux	2.5	100%	1
John Abraham	2.5	100%	1
Vance Walker	2	100%	1
Kroy Biermann	1	100%	1
Jamaal Anderson	1	0%	0
Chevis Jackson	1	0%	0

The Official Scorer at Giants Stadium was giving out Assisted Tackles and Passes Defensed like candy. Houston was credited with 4 PD's by himself.

Special Teams Tackles: Grimes 2.5; Biermann 2; Coy Wire, Aaron Stecker, and Tony Gilbert with a half-tackle (Assisted) each.

Digging Deeper into the Box Score: Week 10

orang3b — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:04:15 -0000

Yes, Week 10 @CAR. I'm not really going to include any commentary for these next few - just the stats, as I'm trying to catch up.

Offense

3:40 remaining in 2Q, 1&10 @ ATL28: M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for M.Jenkins INTERCEPTED by S.Martin at ATL 45. S.Martin to ATL 33 for 12 yards (T.Gonzalez).

3:59 remaining in 4Q, 1&10 @ CAR49: M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for M.Jenkins INTERCEPTED by R.Marshall at CAR 21. R.Marshall to CAR 49 for 28 yards (M.Jenkins).

Defense

Name	Plays	Stop Rate	Defeats
Erik Coleman	9.5	32%	0.5
Mike Peterson	6	58%	0
Curtis Lofton	5	60%	1
Brent Grimes	5	30%	1
Jamaal Anderson	3	67%	1
Stephen Nicholas	3	33%	0
Thomas DeCoud	3	0%	0
Jonathan Babineaux	2	100%	1
Vance Walker	2	100%	0
Chris Houston	2	0%	0
Chauncey Davis	1.5	100%	0
Thomas Johnson	1	100%	0
John Abraham	1	0%	0
Tye Hill	1	0%	0
Chevis Jackson	0.5	100%	0.5

Special Teams Tackles: none. Koenen was 5 for 5 with Touchbacks on Kickoffs, plus had a punt downed at the Carolina 4.

Black and Blue Report: December 3, 2009

orang3b — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 18:14:54 -0000

Black and Blue Report: December 3, 2009

Injury information from Will Carroll of Football Outsiders. Lots of good info on Matt Ryan and Michael Turner (but it's all bad news).

What's wrong with Jay Cutler?

orang3b — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:18:53 -0000

What's wrong with Jay Cutler?

Doug Farrar and Greg Cosell investigate why Cutler is struggling so bad with the Bears. What is interesting to me is how some of these things seem to apply to Matt Ryan:
1) Very often, when quarterbacks take shots early in games, you see them start to lose their mechanics over the course of a game, get rid of the ball too early, start to play too fast.
2) Do you try to play the game to throw four yard passes, three-step drops, five-step drops, just so he doesn’t throw interceptions?
3) When ~~Cutler~~ Ryan hit tight end ~~Greg Olsen~~ Tony Gonzalez for a three-yard out on third-and-five, ~~Olsen~~ Gonzo could gain only one more yard after the catch because cornerback ~~Cedric Griffin~~ Ronde Barber and linebacker ~~Chad Greenway~~ Geno Hayes were playing close in, waiting for the short pass, and knowing that the ~~Bears~~ Falcons had admitted defeat in a strategic sense. Three quick passes, and a three-and-out.
Even if you don't think it relates well to Ryan's struggles, it is still an interesting read.