philly.barstoolsports.com is a new (February) comical sports blog. The main writer on the site had an interesting take on the Flyers weekend and I'm just interested to see what you guys think of it:

 

I don’t want to talk about the New Jersey game. It was sad. And Boucher lost his job. Fuck you Patrik Elias! The Rangers game, however, was a fast paced, entertaining game that I thought would end in a W. But alas, I was wrong. Fucking Lundqvist… Your name sounds like some kind of Swedish orange soda.

Sometimes it feels like the Flyers are in last place as opposed to first with all the criticism that they are receiving. It’s hard to argue with the apparent lacklusterousness going on right now. With starters out of the lineup, our superior depth has become bombed out and depleted. Only solace I can offer fans is that the Flyers plan on playing until June. That’s two more months of hockey that are on their mind, regardless of how many times they tell you that they are focused on every game. Yeah, right. They know that they don’t have to start peaking until next month. Sure, it would look nice to charge into the first round, but the Flyers can beat bubble teams at 80% trying power. Thermodynamics will tell you about the laws of conservation of energy. Mostly, how things won’t do anything unless something makes them. Laziness is written into the universe. It’s science, people. So instead of worrying about how we’re traveling into the playoffs at the speed of ass, let’s focus our mindcroscopes on some positive things that are going on.

Love the JVR-Giroux-Zherdev line. KEEP THIS LINE TOGETHER. This line knows how to run the offense better than any other Flyers line right now. They could teach Lance Armstrong how to cycle. Ninety percent of the points we got this weekend came from these 3 guys. Together, they demonstrate KNO3 out there. Chemistry. Fireworks.

Bob is having a historical rookie season. He could become one of only a handful of rookie goalies who have won 30 games in their first year. Visions of an 87 Hextall (which would be an awesome name for a car) tearing ass through the playoffs race through our minds. This time, there’s no Gretzky. There’s nothing more I’d rather see than Bob hoisting Stan’s Mug of Champions.

“The idea is to get in—we’re in. Obviously, we still want to finish as high as possible, but I don’t think you can be shortsighted and push when guys are banged up. It’s nothing real serious with Danny. We just want to keep him out.”- Paul Holmgren

I also would like to finish as high as possible. So, excuse me while I rip this bong. Things are gonna be fine. Pronger will be back by the start of the playoffs, and that’s gonna really help settle down the Powerplay and ramp up the intensity level of the squad. Let’s just try to stay positive and not be a bunch of spoiled ass bitches talkin’ bout how our first place hockey team isn’t trying hard enough. Straight balderdash!

LET’S GO FLYERS!

I was playing around with excel to see how bad we are at shootouts compared to everyone else and I found out some pretty interesting information.

Total Wins:

Vancouver 52, Philly, Pit, SJ, and Washington all with 46. Okay, Us, Pit, Washington (and the Bruins) are the class of the East. Those numbers make sense.

Overtime win % (picking up the extra point):

Pit 64% (4th in NHL), Wash 54% (11), Philly 35% (27), Boston 21% (30).

Shootout win % (picking up the lock-out point):

Pit 75% (5), Wash 40% (22), Flyers 30% (27), Boston 25% (29)

Us and the Bruins really suck at shootouts and in OT. The Pens dominate the extra session while the Caps are decent in OT and are mehhh in shoot outs.

If games ended in regulation (simulating playoffs- no 4 on 4 in playoffs) here are the top teams in the league (by win %)

Van 83%, Philly 78%, Boston 77%, Washington 75%. Pit is in 10th place with 65%. The interesting thing here is OT games played in general: Wash 24, Pit 22, Philly 17, Bos 14. This translates into NON OT Wins - playoff regulation wins: Van 45, Bos 41, Philly 40, SJS 36, Wash (10) 33, Pit (12) 32.

There is a lot of information here and I don't know what it all means but here are some things that I do know.

1. Pittsburgh and Washington play for OT points late in games (can I say that?)

2. Overtime sucks

A few positive things to think about heading into the playoffs when it isn't going great all-in-all:

1. We've got a goalie. His name is Bob. He's the guy.

2. Zherdev is back (for now)

3. We really did the same thing last year

/trying to keep it positive

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How long should the NHL suspend the douche named Matt Cooke for his vicious elbow to the head?

(Mind you, he was suspended for four games in Febuaury. That was his 4th career suspension. NHL Network guy said he predicts 8... wow)

Updated as of 11:20 PM on Thursday, March 24

Magic Number over each team with 9 left to play:

Pittsburgh (8 left): 12

Washington (8 left): 14

Boston (9 left): 14

What this means is if we get six wins in 9 games and Pitt wins out we win the division. 7 wins to clinch the conference regardless of what the other three teams do.

Updated as of 6:00 PM on Wednesday, March 23:

Magic Number over each team:

Pittsburgh: 13

Washington: 15

Boston: 13

The term "Magic Number" is defined as:

In certain sports, a magic number is a number used to indicate how close a front-running team is to clinching a season title. It represents the total of additional wins by the front-running team or additional losses (or any combination thereof) by the rival team after which it is mathematically impossible for the rival team to capture the title in the remaining games.

In hockey it is slightly different because of the point system, not just the wins and losses. So our magic numbers will revolve around points. The calculation is the opposition's current points + their points available (10 games left is 20 points available) - our total points.

Our Magic # for clinching the Atlantic Division: Pittsburgh: 14

Our Magic # for clinching the Easter Confrence:

Washington: 16 (Their MN over TB for the SE division is 15)

Boston: 14 (Their MN over MON for the NE division is 16)

What to watch this week:

Monday: Pittsburgh @ Detroit

Tuesday: Washington @ Philly

Wednesday: Nada

Thursday: Montreal @ Boston, Pittsburgh @ Philly

Friday: New Jersey @ Pittsburgh, Washington @ Ottawa

Saturday: New York Rangers @ Boston, Washington @ Montreal, Philly @ Islanders

Sunday: Florida @ Pittsburgh, Boston @ Philly

What does it all mean for our chances and what kind of pace do we need to keep up in order to win the division and the conference?

Pit: After their loss to the Rangers, they have 10 games left and we have 11, leaving 21 total games for us to pick up or them to leave 14 points (hence the magic number). This week we play 4 games and they play 3, totaling 7. That means that in order to keep up pace we need to gain 33% (7 of 21 total games left, 7/21=.33 games played this week) of the magic number, 4.66 points. If we beat Pittsburgh this week and lose all of our other games and they win all of their other games, our magic number drops 4 points. Winning the division is the most important thing, way more important than the conference. First off, it guarantees us home ice in the first round. More importantly it essentially (but not mathematically) guaruntees that we don't play a top 6 team (us, Boston, Montreal, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Washington). We will most likely wind up with Carolina, New York Rangers, or Buffalo. If NJ stays this hot and they make it in to the 8, they are our biggest threat. I'm rooting against them, but I still think we handle them in less than 6 games if we do catch them. I also think the division clinch is symbolic of the best team in our conference. In each of the past 3 years the Atlantic has represented the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup. The power lies in the East until it is taken away, and letting the Pens catch us without Crosby gives them a huge mental advantage considering we havn't beat Crosby's Penguins in either of our two chances.

Was: They have 9 left, we have 11, totaling 20. They have 2 games this week, we have 4, totaling 6. That is (6/20) 30% of the schedule which translates to us needing to get 30% of the 16 points (4.8) that are our magic number to keep pace.

Bos: They have 11 left, we have 11, totaling 22. They have 2 games this week, we have 4, totaling 6. (6/22)*14=3.8 points to keep pace with them.

Winning the conference does a few things, some obvious, some not. Obvious first: home ice. The Flyers lost 2 home games in last years playoffs: game 3 vs. Boston and the last game of our season. We are an amazing home team. Not so obvious: The Caps stink in the playoffs. If the Rangers get the 7 seed that match-up has upset potential, leaving us with the Rags in the second round, a team we should handle. There are plenty other subtle advantages of coming in first in the East and I'm sure you guys can brainstorm all of those below.

***I'm going to try to update the Magic Numbers atop the page after every time the Bruins, Caps, Pens, or Flyers play

As far as consistency goes, Jeff Carter is among the best. Yeah, I said it! In season Jeff gets hot and cold, but who doesn't? What Jeff carter brings to the table is a big 6'3" frame, deceiving top-tier speed, ability in the face-off circle, solid defensive presence, and a wicked wrist shot. With the increase in interest there has been an emphases on judging players based on other, more telling, methods such as Goals per 60, PP goals per 60, quality of competition/teammates, shooting %, yada yada yada, I'm going to look at good old fashioned goals. What I want to know doesn't really need advanced stats. I am trying to compare Jeff Carter to the other elite scorers in the NHL today and their consistency. My player pool consists of the top 20 goal scorers in the NHL right now, as well as any top ten guys from last year who dropped out.

I'm having a formatting problem so here's what I got: Player, Average goals per the past three years, average rank among goal scorers for the past three years. This years goals were proportionated to a full season and rookies numbers only included the years they were in the league.

1. Ovechkin 46-7
2. Stamkos 41-7
3. Carter 39-7
4. Crosby 39-11
5. Marleau 38-10
6. Kovalchuk 38-10
7. Nash 36-9
8. Heatley 35-13
9. Semin 35-13
10. Parise 35-13 (This year's .25 goals a game through 12 was set over a full season)
11. Ryan 34-11
12. Iginla 34-11
13. D. Sedin 34-12
14. E. Stall 34-13
15. Perry 34-12
16. Kessel 32-15
17. Moulson 32-15
18. Towes 31-16
19. Kesler 30-14
20. Sharp 30-15
21. Burrows 29-17
22. Gaborik 25-17
23. Briere 24-18
24. Grabner 20-18
25. Lucic 20-20
26. Grabovski 20-22

Jeff Carter is only one of 5 players to average a top 10 finish in goal over the past three seasons. The others? Some guys named Ovechkin, Stamkos, Marleau, and Nash. Carter and Ovechkin are at an average of 6.7 a season as of right now, with Stamkos trailing at 7.33, Nash at 8.66, and Marleau with 9.66.

Just for the record, Carter makes 5 mil this year and will make 5.25 for the remainder of his career (or atleast untill he's in his middle 30s). Ovechkin? 9.538 million for his career. Marleau? 6.9 mil. Nash? 7.8. These are the top contracts that each player will ever play in their career. Carters is over 1.5 cheaper than Marleau, 2.5 than Nash, and over 4 million cheaper than Ovechkin. As for Stamkos, he makes 3.75 mil this year and will be a restricted free agent next year. His cap hit for next year will almost guarunteed make more than Carter. Whether he will take a 10 year 100 million type deal or a 3 year 25 million is yet to be seen, but eventually he'll be around the 8-9 million range, while Carter will never hit 5.5.

I know we all bash Carter all the time, but the next time he fires high and wide and you crack a Jeffie joke... just remember how VALUE-able he is to our team as a top flight goal scorer as well as everything else he brings to the table. With him and Richie locked up we have 2 top lines for the next ten years. Add on Giroux and we have 3 scoring lines for as long as the three of them are together... all for the price of (5.75 (richie) + 5.25 (carter) + 3.75 (giroux) = 14.75 million dollars. Divide that number by the projected 61.4 million dollar cap hit for next year (Carter and Giroux's contracts in the 14.75 are for next year so I'm keeping consistancy) and you get 24% of the cap hit for 34% of our goal scoring this year.

Go Flyers!

After finishing my research, I should have just combined this with my last post of "First Round Picks, Who Needs Them?" I brought up in the other post how consistent we are, and that has to change the way we draft. Right now the Flyers would never ever scout a player in the top half of the first round, because we simply won't pick up there. Using that as my backing, I analysed every pick 21-30 for each draft from 2000-2004 and then cross-referenced those numbers against our Flyer first round picks in recent history within the parameters of 21-30 overall.

Goalies: We drafted 3 guys in those slots, this wasn't really for the goalies. Boosh was the best of three Flyer late-first-round goalies that never quite hit their potential. in the years I looked over: Cam Ward was the only one with more than 75 games. Cory Schneider is the only other name i recognized.

Defense:

I broke down each defender into 3 categories: Top Pair Defender, Serviceable NHL defender, bust. 1 of 15 (Mike Green) was labeled as a "1". 20% were "3"'s, they never had a sniff of NHL time. Everyone else had at least 188 games played and was a "2" (73%). The Flyers have only taken 2 Defense since the 95 season where Homer was involved with the team as a part of the front office: Jeff Woywitka and Luca Sbisa. Jeff and Luca in "Gm-G-A-P-PIM" fashion: .02-.13-.15-.79 and .03-.17-.20-.57. Here is averages and standard deviation: .05-.17-.22-.58 and .06-.13-.18-.35. Both guys are right on the average in all parts. Not much to report here.

Forwards:

Here is all of the juicy stuff. I knew the Flyers were good at drafting, but I didn't know they were this good. Here are the numbers for forwards drafted 21-30 overall from 2000-04:

G/G = .19 (.10 STDEV)

A/G = .26 (.14 STDEV)

P/G = .46 (.24)

PIM = .86 (.58)

Of 30 forwards drafted, 3 were "1's" (Richards, Perry, Kessler) (10%), 15 (50%) were 2's, and 12 (40%) were 3's. I bet the Flyers picked more than 10% 1's!!!

1998 (22 Overall) Simone Gagne: .38-.39-.77-.41. He's 2 standard deviations above the mean in goals, 1 deviation above in assists and points, and is an excellent defensive forward as well.

2000 (28 Overall) Justin Williams: .25-.40-.65-.69. He's a half standard deviation above in goals,  a full one in assists, and two-thirds in points.

2003 (24 Overall) Mike Richards: .29-.48-.77-.89. 1 SD up in goals, 1.66 in assists, 1.33 in points, and is at the average in PIM's. I don't need to tell you how good he is.

2005 (29 Overall) Steve Downie: .21-.28-.49-2.62. I had no idea how solid of a player Downie has become down in TB. I just figured he only scored against us. Downie is a slightly above average scorer, slightly above average in assists-per-game (as well as points), but those aren't the Numbers that stick out. He's about 5 SD's above the mean. He is the "perfect pest." He plays with a star, he's physical as anyone, he fights, he scores, and everyone hates him. Its a shame he never worked out in orange and black because he'd be deadly in Carcillo's role (Versteeg-Richie-Downie would be amazing).

2006 (22 Overall) Claude Giroux: .24-.47-.71-.36. Half SD above in goals, one-and-a-third above in assists, and one up in points. Once again, you can youtube him if you want... I don't need to tell you)

What does this mean? It means that the Flyers pick out their guys well before they know if they are going to need a pick. Meaning, we traded for Versteeg because we knew that there are no prospects in the late first round that were worth the value of that first round pick. To be 5/5 in something that has a 10% chance of happening (10% 1's in the 30 sampled players) is incredible. Giroux, Richards, Gagne are all hands down top line players. Downie is probably a 2 but has the potential to be a 1 if he keeps scoring first and being a dick second. Justin Williams was given a 2 in the original data (he was drafted in 2000) but looking at him more, and his being a full standard deviation in assists and a half one in goals, AND being the 29th pick (data is from 21-30, he's at the bottom), I say that for the sake of being 5/5, he's a 1.

I'd love to see one other team draft forwards as well as we do from the late first round. We constantly draft players that play above their selection point... and that makes sense. Why else would we give up so many first round picks? If we didn't pick up Versteeg would anyone be disappointed with our playoff roster? Probably not. However, if you knew our first pick would bust, would you then want to trade it for Versteeg? I know I would. And considering that the Flyers, a team who drafts extremely well out of the late first round, have traded three strait first round picks away, I tend to agree that there isn't an abundance of talent out there.

I was bored in class yesterday and my mind drifted to the Flyers like usual. I started thinking about all of those trades we made a few years ago that kind of chained on each other. We got a bunch of great deals out of those trades and that lead me to thinking, ‘How many picks on our roster are directly the result of our first round draft picks, and is whatever number good or bad?”

One of the many knocks on Homer is that he is too quick to throw  away draft picks, and more recently first round picks. I did a little research and Homer was signed as our director of pro scouting after the 95-96 season, was promoted to the director of player personnel in 96-97, was the assistant GM after the 98-99 season, and during the 06-07 was finally promoted to GM. For fun’s sake I started my research after the 95-96 season.

This is what our roster would look like if we only had the players or direct connections of transactions of our first overall pick:

Forwards
JVR-Richards-Versteeg
(Xxxxxxxx)-Carter-Giroux
Hartnell-(Xxx)-(Xxx)
(Xxx)-(Xx x)-(Xxx)

Defense
Pronger-Carle
Timonen-(XXX)
(XXX)-(XXX)
Walker

Goalies
(XXX)
(Boucher was our first round pick --- just before Holmgren had anything to do with the Flyers current organization)

Who we actually drafted with our own, given, draft picks:

James vanReimsdyk (2007)- We all know the JVR saga. We sucked worse than anyone, lost the lottery (and Pat Kane… and a Stanley Cup ) to the Blackhawks and we got JVR with #2 overall. His path to the NHL was pretty simple: He went to school for two years, finished up that year with the Phanotms, then to everyone’s surprise he won a spot last year and has played in almost every game since (And playing like a top overall pick at some times).

Claude Giroux (2006)- He was drafted, play a few games wearing #56 in his pre rookie season “rookie tryout” and didn’t stand out. He had a shoot out opportunity (I remember because I was mad we let this little “rookie” go and not a “real NHL player”… little did I know that Claude would turn into one of the best breakaway options in the game just a few years later) and missed. He went down to juniors, little to be heard from for the rest of the year. The next year he was worth the price of admission for the Phantoms in 08-09 with only one early season call up in which he was less than impressive. It took a Danny Briere groin injury to get Giroux back in the lineup (that was when Danny was only “OK” and certainly not worth anywhere near the value of his six plus million a year contract) for good. Giroux would never look back down except for (I’m pretty sure) a technicality similar one to the JVR of this past week. The rest is pretty much Grilled Cheese…

Mike Richards: The last of our legitimately drafted players is the captain. He was drafted when I was only 13 in the 2003 draft. He was the captain of the Memorial Cup winning Kitchenaw Rangers of the OHL. He was the captain of an under-20 Team Canada with guys with last names that rhyme with Rerry, Bobsby, and Smetzlav all on it. It was loaded, and they won. He was captain of the AHL champion Philadelphia Phantoms during the “Lockout.” He wore an “A” for the Flyers for the first time in the 08-09 season and was the Flyers captain the next season, then he knocked over Halak and scored one of the most amazing plays by a Philly athlete ever.

That’s it. Only three of our own first round picks since 96 are with the team right now. Pretty astounding. However there is one guy who we traded up to the first round to get:

Jeff Carter: That same year as Richards, 2003 the Flyers acquired the pick by trading Damon Lankow (Flyers also received a second round pick in that deal) who was starting to decline from being one of the elite defensive centers that I can remember. What we got with Carter was an elite sniper (top 8 in goals last two years) and a key piece to our future after he extended his contract to make sure he’s a Flyer for at least a decade.

There are then three other deals/connections/webs of trading that factor into our first round pick usage/trading.

First: “The Top Pair”

Ruslan Fedetanko and two-second rounders were used to move into the first round to draft Joni Pitkanen (we also received a 3rd round pick and a player). Joni was a good Flyer, I don’t remember much, but he was shipped off for Jason Smith and Joffrey Lupul.
R.J. Umburger and a 4th round pick were used to acquire the 19th overall pick and a 3rd round pick. The early pick went to be Luca Sbisa, he played an okay rookie year for us, (just got a 4 year 8+ million dollar extension, good for him) filling in for injuries and shifting to winger on an occasion. Well, Joffrey and Luca, along with our 2009 and 2010 1st round picks were used to acquire Ryan Dingle. And Chris Pronger. He’s pretty good. Right after that deal, we moved our later first round pick (27 overall) for Steve Eminger and a 3rd round pick. Eminger was a Flyer for a few months before he played his way out.  We packaged Eminger and 2005 first round pick Steve Downie (and a middle pick) for Matt Carle (and a middle round pick).

Second: “Nashville”
This one is pretty simple. Forsberg → Parent, Upshall, 1st round pick, 3rd round pick. We then took that first round pick and sent it right back to Nashville for Timonen and Hartnell. Wow. Win for the Flyers? We know Upshall gets shipped for Carcillo in one of the most fan-hated trades ever, so we basically moved an aging star for a top tier defensemen, a top 6 forward with 24, 30, 14 and 19 (this year) goals in his 3+ years as a flyer, and a fan favorite. All for an injury-riddled former star.

Third: “Gagne”
Our 1998 first pick was a player by the name of Simone Gagne. Forget the middle, we don’t need to reminisce, he was eventually traded for a bag of hockey pucks (Matt Walker and a late pick).

So you now ask, where is the comparison?  Well, there really isn’t a comparison. No teams in the NHL do what the Flyers do: Make the playoffs every year (less one) as contenders, seemingly never have to rebuild (except once), and hit the FA market hard due to the lack of farm system input. I love first round picks, trust me, I do, but when you see so many guys, especially late-first-round guys, get drafted and turn to nothing, I’d rather trade the pick if you don’t have someone your “zero’d in on”. The Flyers have done a great job at selecting quality players from the back end of the first round, when there are not that many of those guys to begin with. I just hate seeing us trade a pick and everyone makes it seem like we had the first overall pick. Let me know what you think of this.

We've been winning a lot and there isn't much to talk about because some things are becoming eminent: 14= Zherdev, 13= Shelley, 11/12= Nodl and Carcillo. Shelley deters (had to say it), Nodl plays D, and Mezaros is right around a 2.5/5. Now lets get down to the fun stuff. My imagination is running away from me in class and I'm assembling a hockey team of Movie Caracters. I'm not going to explain it so I'll just show you:

The only rule is the person must be in their origional form... so no Iron Man or Avatar.

Batman: Darrol Powe- Fourth line winger. Batman and Powesie are very similar. They both do tough jobs for the good of the city or team. They are both introverts. Powe just needs a mask and a cape.

Achiles: Eric Lindros- Superstar center. Both guys have had major problems with managment. Both guys are physically and skillfully superior to everyone they've ever come across. They will bully you and then win the game.

Hell Boy: George Laraque- Fourth line enforser. Jody Shelley might not deter dirty hits, but Hell Boy would. He's also pretty quick, I'd love him screening the net.

Spiderman: Dominick Hasek- Goalie. What helped turn Peter Parker into a spider person? Great vision. Great reflexes. Great flexibility. Hello everyone, meet the Dominater.

Liam Neeson: Sean O'Donnell- third pair defensmen. He might not have great skills, but he's physical. He's an old, veteran presense that will sacrifice his body for the team whether it be blocking a shot or dropping the gloves. "Taken" doesn't have the size, but his speed and agility makes up for it.

Crixus: Rod Brind'amor- Fourth line center. Crixus is from "Sparticus" the Showtime show. Season 1 was amazing and about Sparticus. Season 2 is a prequil and about Crixus. He's bad ass and has crazy cordination. He's a flat out warrior and was a under the radar guy. He's the definition of a team player.

John McClain: Mark Recchi- second line winger-He's the ageless wonder. He's a great guy to add to a line with a young superstar such as Harry Potter on it. He's old, he's small, he's physical, he's the perfect Mark Recchi.

Jack Bauer: Kimmo Timonen- Top pair defensmen. Both guys avoid fighting with their fists. Bauer kills people before it gets to that and Kimmo disarms them of the puck. Both guys are very physical in general as Kimmo is just very efficient in his physicality. Smaller, quick guys who are tough as nails. How many times have you seen Kimmo take one in the chest and limp off only to return next shift?

Harry Potter- Claude Giroux- top line winger. Both guys are relativley quiet with goofy senses of humor. Both guys are around the same size. Both guys have toughness beyond their size. Potter is a wizard with his wand, Giroux is a wizard with the puck.

Lex Luther- Matt Cooke- third line winger. "The greatest criminal mnd of all time." 'Nuff Said.

Neo- Steve Stamkos- Third line center. Both guys just came out of no where into a new world... Neo the "real" world, Stamkos in the superstar world. Neo moves so fast he dodges bullets and can hit you 100 times before you blink. If you blink with Stamkos, the puck's in the net.

Kenny Powers- Jaramir Jagr- first line winger. Both guys are big dudes. Both guys have amazing mullets. Both guys can shoot lasers... Kenny from his arm and Jagr from his stick.

Bobby Lee Swagger- Brett Hull- second line winger. "Shooter" is the name of the movie. Swagger was the best sniper in the world. He might have been the best sniper in any movie ever. Hull could snipe too... just differently.

Terminator- John Scott- Third pair defense. Look up a Joh Scott fight. He is the terminator. 6'8'' 255 Lb. heavyweight.

"Agent J" (Will Smith in MiB)- Eric Tangradi- Third line forward. Eric Tangradi: 6'4'' 225 lbs from Philly PA. Will Smith 6'2' 220 lbs from Philly PA. He chased that Alien across NYC, man was that scene awesome.

Chuck Norris.

Alternate Captain: Hector from "Troy"- Top Defensmen. Hector was the man. He was the ultimate leader and he did everything for his country. Great family guy. Great prince. He'd be an asset to any locker room.

Alternate Captain: Maximus Decimus Meridious- Chris Pronger. Both guys are physical as could be. Both gusy hate authority. Both guys say whats on their mind to who ever. The way Pronger handles the puck and shows calmness is the same way that "Gladiator" creates a calmness when he's in his most physical element. 

Captain: King Leonidas (300)- Mark Messier. The greatest leader ever. He fought to the death for his fellow warriors. He sliced and diced up enemies and made the god king bleed. What more needs to be said.

Potter-Achilles-Powers

John McClane-Leonidas-Swagger

J-Neo-Luther

Hellboy-Crixus-Batman

Gladiator-Hector

Norris-Bauer

Terminator-Neesen

Spiderman

What do you think?

What do we do at the deadline?

What do I think? If it aint broke, don't fix it. Were the top dogs in the league with the most goals, and 9th in GA. There isn't much to improve. Not saying we cant improve, it will just be very hard for us. If someone says, take OV for Hartnell, Shelley and Zherdev, we'd be silly not to consider (just a random good player for 3 random guys with big cap hits). But I'm going to explain why there is only one move we could make, and why that is not a bad thing.

Goalies: Unless we can move lots of cap up front (which we cant without destroying the make-up of the squad) we can't get a goalie. Boosh is playing solid and Bob is getting hot again. Last year showed you don't need big name goalies to get you to the promise land. Niemi, Leighton, Halak and Nabakov were the final four goalies last year. Who are the first three? We'll be fine in net.

Defense: We might have the best total defense in both the NHL today and in Flyer history. Pronger is a 1 on any team in hockey. Kimmo is a 1 on any team except about 5-10 (you can make an argument for Kimmo on any team except us, Boston, Detroit, and Chicago. I might be forgetting a few, but you get the point). Barry Melrose said at the Classic that Braydon Coburn could be a #1 on most teams in the league. Do I believe it? Probably not. Is Barry Melrose more knowledgable than me, when it comes to that topic? Absolutley. Either way he's an amazing 3-4. So is Matt Carle. And then our third pair of Mez and OD is the best 3rd pair in hockey. Both guys have been exceptional. Oscars is a solid #7 and if we need an 8 we reach down to the minors and pull up good old Matty Walker. BUT WAIT, WE CANT BRING HIM UP WITH HIS ONE WAY DEAL, HE'LL GET CLAIMED! Relax, I know. (Pretty sure on this next sentance, but correct me if I'm wrong please) The playoffs do not use a salary cap or a waiver system. We'll call up Walker once we are in the playoffs for D-man ensurance. If that all goes down the tubes, no issue... we've got the offensive dynamo Danny Syvret waiting in the wings to be our 8th D-man. None of the top 6 get moved. No effin way. I'd bet my house on it.

Line 4: Shelley-Betts-Powe. Come playoff time this could change to Carcillo-Betts-Powe. Both lines are solid. There is no need to "upgrade" this line. What are we gonna swap grinder for grinder and just come out with a draw and hurt chemistry? The Flyers orginazation doesn't operate like that. Were a family and we'd never make a silly 4th line swap. Now, I'd trade Powe if the Lightning said Zherdev and Powe for Gagne (example, please don't yell at me!), but that wont happen.

Line 2: Harts-Briere-Leino. No one's going anywhere. Hartnell has to go for us to bring in someone making around 7 million, but that wont happen for three reason. 1. His NTC is hard to work with. 2. This line is the best in hockey. 3. No one with a sensible brian would put us in a position to aquire another all star. Moving any of these guys is just flat out stupid.

Lines 1/3. In NHL 11 I keep Richie as my first line center because he can take draws in the offensive zone or the defensive zone. Thats why he's my "first line" center. On to the trading. We've got six guys on these two lines. These guys are the only possibilites to be moved. I'll tell you the scenerios why they could be moved, if the situation presents itself:

Richie- Hell freezes over

Carter- Richie gets traded (both wont happen, just a little joke... ha... ha...)

Giroux- You trade us your whole team

JVR- We get a pretty amazing offer and then find out that everyone hates JVR and thats why we traded him. % he's gone: .1%

Andreas Nodl and Nikolay Zherdev- Heres the deal. We need 12 forwards for 4 lines of 3. Trading either of these guys we must get a productive RW back for each guy we trade. Meaning, we trade Nodl, we need a winger back. We trade both, we need two back. Now, why could we trade these guys. Nodl- he's young, he'll be tougher to sign next year, and there are plenty of better wingers out there. Zherdev- He's been a healthy scratch and he's an offense only asset. I'd move either of these guys iff-

1. We get an equal number of NHL ready capable RW's in return

2. We upgrade in overall talent in the trade

3. We don't decimate ourselves in the cap

How can we do this? Trading prospects and picks. Lets say we can make a move on a Mike Knuble type player. Veteren. Good forward. Scores goals. Plays D. 2.5-4 cap hit of less than 2 years. We swap Nodl or Zherdev (pick one), a third round pick, and a defensive prospect. That is the only major move we could pull off IMO.

Come trade deadline the Flyers will not make an NHL move involving starting players because we are too good to mess with, IMO. If we do, its Nodl or Zherdev. That is my take on the cap, but when it comes down to it (I'm gonna say it..) I TRUST HOMER! If he makes a move, I assume we get better. No matter what. 2 bad moves, lots of good moves as a GM of the Flyers. Giroux and Briere for co-MVP!

Me and my brother (who is a knowledgeable Flyers fan, just not an advanced stat guy) were arguing about who are the three most important players to the Flyers. I remember this site did this same question last year, before the year. I don't want to recall what we voted on to keep bias out of it, and because I would not want to search that far back. Anyway, he said Giroux, Briere, Richards. I say Richards, Pronger, Kimmo. There are six possibilities you can say: Richie, Briere, Giroux, Carter, Kimmo, Prongs.

For the poll I'm going to post, there was one specific debate we had. He said Kimmo over Giroux is rediculous. I said G is my fourth, but I value defense, he values offense. Arguments can be made for both. The poll is one or the other, but I'd love to hear your commentary on your top 3 in order and maybe a little bit of reasoning.

This will hopefully be the last post on this topic all season (or maybe all week, who knows, its fun to debate this). I was going to comment in the Godfather post with this but my results were so astounding, I decided to give it it's own post. Why is Jody Shelley playing over Carcillo. The obvious answer is ONLY because he's a bigger fighter. Pound for pound, he's the worse fighter. Carbomb is one of the top middleweights in the league and Shelley is an average to below average heavyweight (probably more below). Having Shelley in the line-up provides protection for the more gifted players (again, this is the easy answer, there will be some better stuff to come).

The naysayers say but Jody can't skate, he certainly cant score, he hardly fights, and Carcillo does all of the above! Is that the case? If Carbomb is a better overall player then he's got to have a better +/-, right?

Jody Shelley is a +4

Dan Carcillo is a -7 (only Powe (-1) and Bartullis (-4) are negatives)

Well +/- is horrible. Lets use the "rating" stat, which is +/- per 60 on less +/- for 60 off. It shows relativity to the team to prevent everyone on good teams to have good numbers and same with bad teams.

Jody Shelly -.09
Dan Carcillo -4.25
Dan's is good for dead last on the team and Jody's is 7th among forwards, ahead of Richie and Claude.

But Danny Carcillo scores more than Shelley given TOI, so he should play, right?

Jody Shelley .5 G/60(better than Powe and Wellwood (forwards only))

Dan Carcillo .63 G/60(better than above and Betts(forwards only))

Heres the thing... we don't need our fourth line to score goals. We've got 9 potential 20 goal scorers to do that, not to mention a guy who could hit 50 this year (not out of the question for Danny B, but that is neither here nor there). If the team scores when someone's on the ice, its basically just as good as them scoring, right? And the team scores mroe with the big guy:

Goals for (team) per 60
Jody Shelley 2.51 (good for 4th from last over Betts, Powe, and...)
Dan Carcillo 1.26 (dead last, Powe is second to last with 2.03)

But that isn't the important thing. Our fourth line needs to keep pucks OUT of the net. No one on the Flyers keeps pucks out of the net like good ol' defensive wiz Jody Shelley. WTF?

Goals allowed (team) per 60 when player is on ice

Jody Shelley 1.5 (BEST ON THE TEAM. Wellwood was second with 1.53, Powe is 1.66, and JVR is in the 1.8's)

Dan Carcillo 3.45 (WORST ON THE TEAM. Powe is 2.84 behind him. That is a horrible outlier on a solid defensive team)

+/- on ice /60 minutes

Shelley +1 (8th over Richards, Claude, and Zherdev)

Carcillo -2.20 (last, Powe at -.41 is only other negative)

The only point you can make... is shooting percentage

Danny C's team shooting percentage is only 5%, good for last. By a lot. Zherdev is 8.23 in second to last, with Shelley at 9.8). Shelley's save percentage is tops with Carcillo on the bottom. I am acknowledging that this number is the main factor in all of the other numbers I've gone over, but with that being said, there must be other variables than pure luck.

Penalties

Shelley Takes 2, draws 1 per 60. Now Jody plays around five minutes a night, so every 12 games, he costs us a penalty. Carcillo takes 1.3 and draws .9. takes .4 penalties for 60 minutes. He costs us a penalty every 30 games. Advantage no one really. Jody costs us about 5 more penalties a year than Carcillo, we give up goals on the PK roughly 1 of 5, he costs us a PK goal a year penalty-wise.

Qual Comp

Jody's dead last with -.141 while Carcillo is at .020 in 5th place. I have no idea why that is. But while that difference of .161 is pretty staggering, it doesn't compare to the teammate difference. Shelley has by far the worst QTeam of -.749 while Carcillo is -.341 good for 3rd to last. thats a .400 difference, almost tripling the difference of .141 in the QComp. This means that Carcillo's harder competition is compensated by his better teammates, meaning there is no reason for the skew in numbers other than pure luck due to shooting percentage and you cannot use QComp as an argument, because the QTeam is almost 3x the argument n the other direction.

Zone Start

Behind Betts' 28.6 OZone start come Carcillo and Shelley's 35.7 and 37.1. Carcillo manages to end in the offensive zone a staggering 53.2 while Shelley's only moving the play the other way 38.2. The difference of almost 18 to barely 1 is a huge advantage to Carcillo.

Conclusion: Jody Shelley, this year, has been a more effective hockey player than Dan Carcillo. His goal production is basically on par, although the team is better both offensively and defensively with Shelley on the ice. Although Danny's QComp is .141 harder than Shelleys (who is worst on the team), Shelley's QTeam is .400 worse than Carcillo's negating the original advantage that Shelley had. Penalties are basically a wash, with Shelley costing the Flyers one goal per season with these rates due to penalties. The only two factors you can argue Carcillo would be that his luck with shooting percentage is horrible and he turns the play the other way better than Shelley does. With all of the hard data crunched, the point is simple. We need our fourth line to do one thing and one thing only. Stay even on the night so the top three can dominate. As long as that happens we will keep winning. Carcillo's offensive "ability" is meaningless in this scenerio as he is not keeping the puck out of his own net this year very well at all. We need a guy who can play five minutes a night and add some thunder to the lineup. In addition to being a better player than Carcillo (using the markers that I did above) he's the bigger fighter, he showed he's smart and knows when to fight, and say what you want about it he's a "locker room guy." YES HE IS OVERPAID, but at this point, does it matter if the whole team makes the league minimum and Jody gets the rest? No. Might there come a time down the road where we really regret his salary? Quite possibly. As EDUCATED fans, and that is what most of us are over here at BSH (everything I've learned in this post has been from the people here, mostly Geoff) is it that hard to see why he is in the line-up? We win with him in. He doesn't mind taking the small minutes. He drops the gloves with whomever. He defends his teammates (except when he's got little monkeys jumping all over his back). He's also a big body in front of the net that causes his teammates to have the highest shooting percentage when he is on the ice (that is a major factor in the shooting percentage category, not everything has to do with "luck"). All year long I've been on the Shelley bandwagon and have used very qualitative posts for my argument. Hopefully this "Geoff-friendly" post will help my advanced stats cred.

Go Flyers
(Sorry cillo-stache)

Brenden Ranford might be the biggest steal in the history of the Flyers. His first year as a Kamloops Blazer he only played in three games not regestering a point. The following year, 2008-09, he played in 66 games with 13-14-27 G-A-P. Hardly numbers to be proud of. In his most important season, the one before he would be drafted, in 72 games his line was 29-36-65. Because of that he was burried at the end of the draft. This season was different. Before I say his numbers, the following people were top 20 in scoring in the WHL in the past 5 years that are now in the NHL.

Jordan Eberle (2010): 57-50-56-106. 22 OA

Evander Kane (2009): 72-40-68-108. 4 OA

Braydon Schenn (2009): 70-32-56-88. 5 OA

Tyler Ennis (2009): 61-43-42-85. 26 OA

Ennis (08): 70-43-48-91

Eberle (08): 70-42-33-75

Zach Boychuk (2007): 69-31-60-91. 14 OA

Devon Setoguchi (2006): 65-36-47-83. 8 OA

Brandon Dubinsky (2006): 51-21-46-67. 60 OA

Right now Brendan Ranford has 28 goals, 26 assists, and 54 points... in only 34 games. If you double that to make it a full season he'll have 56 goals, 52 assists, and 108 points... more goals than anyone and tied with Evander Kane for most points. Say what you want about his size and "ineficient skating" but goals are goals and pure goalscorers who play some defense (he is one of 5 (+) guys on a horrible team) are hard to find.

If Brendan Ranford was in the draft this year, he would be a first round pick.

In my daily web browsing I came across NHL.com's generic team statistics and was shocked to see how the Flyers are dominating the NHL.

Wins- 1, 22 (Were Really Good)

Losses- 1, 7 (Were Really Good)

OTL- 5, T3 (2-5 in overtime, as good as we are in regulation, were that bad in the extra session.)

P- 49, 1(Were Really Good)

P%- .721, 1(Were Really Good)

Goals/Game- 3.41, 2 (Colorado is at 3.62 but their GA/G is 3.32)

GA/Game- 2.32, 4 (Bos/Atl/Nash are 2.57, 2.66, 2.54 GF/G)

5-5 Goal ratio- 1.67:1, 1 (next closest: 1.42 and 1.28)

PP- 16.8, 16

PK- 82.8, 12

SOG/G- 33.4- 3

SA/G- 29.2- 13 (An astounding 13th place in this category but 4th place in GA/G. It says one of two things: 1. Our goalies are playing amazing. 2. Their shots are poor quality.)

Score 1st W%- .789, 10

Trial 1st W%- .467, 4 (This team can play with the lead better than 2/3's of the league, and can come from behind with the best of them)

Lead After 1 W%- .929, 2

Lead After 2 W%- .905, 14 (This is the only number that concerns me due to the higher 1st period percentage. Still good, but if we want to be "elite" we need to be better than average at closing out games)

Out Shoot Opponent W%- .526, 10

Out Shot By Opponent W%- .786, 3

FO %- 49.8, 17

Home PP%- 16.8%, 23

Away PP%- 16.7, 15

Anything stand out to you guys?

Point one: Anyone that is a true Flyers fan, when ranking their most hated teams, will have the Caps and the Pens in the top 5. We hate the Devils but that rivalry has gone down with their point totals. The Rags are hated by most, I don't mind them because of their solid USA core of Dubinsky, Calahan and Drury. The Isles are whatever. Bruins and Habs are hated now... more so the Habs. Anyway you slice it, we all hate the Habs and the Pens.

Point two: Hard Knocks is awesome.

Dilemma: As a Flyer fan, will you watch 24/7. If the answer is no, it is totally understandable. If the answer is yes, how do you justify.

PS Finals are done, so my posting on this site goes from way too much to borderline unhealthy.

Wednesday night's game against the Habs marked a dramatic turning point for your 2010-11 Flyers. Like five good things happened and I'm excited about every one of them.

1. Sergei Bobrovsky had another solid game- even with giving up a weak goal. 5-3 first goal, nothing he could do. Rebound second or third attempt goal to make it 3-2... not horrible but not an impossible goal. Less than a few minutes after the second goal, he gave up a weak, weak, weak goal from about thirty feet out. That can't happen but he showed me something after that. There were four major reasons to think that his season could turn around (for the worse) involving last nights game:

a. Leighton's coming back definitely has to make Bob think a little bit about what they are going to do.

b. Boosh has played, looked solid, and won each of his last three games- including a Penguins start.

c. He just gave up a 2 goal lead for the second time in as many starts (3 last time) in the third period.

d. The game tying goal was weak.

e. Pronger was hurt and not playing (more on this later)

With all of these variables out there, Bob stood tall for the end of the game, finishing with 38 of 41 saves. A very impressive performance to say the least. That solid play after the third goal was the kind of poise that makes me giggle when thinking about his future. If he gives up another goal, and the Habs had some great chances after the tied game, we start talking about another goalie controversy. Aside- Did anyone hear Al Morganty say in the pregame show something to the tune of 'Look at that smile. That big Scandinavian smile or whatever.' I laughed out loud when I heard that.

2. Pronger got dinged up. How is this a good thing? Assuming this is a Gagne/Carter type injury he'll be out for 2-6 weeks. Gags came back in the playoffs in two, but it took Carter a little bit more. Becasue Pinach said he didn't look to be in pain I think he'll come back in the beginning of January. I can now think of 3 reasons why this is an okay thing.

a. His knee that is "not 100%" has more time to heal.

b. Oscars Bartullis will get some much-needed playing time.

c. This will HELP our power-play (SAY WHATTTTT!). First off... there is only one way for our PP to go... up. After two big GW PP goals, we now have confidence (one of which Prongs was out for). I'm calling it now- Richards will go to the point with Kimmo and these are my projected lines for the PP: Hartnell/Briere/Giroux/Richards/Timonen. JVR/Carter/Zherdev/Meszaros/Carle. Richie bumps back to the point, Leino is the odd man out (or the guy who will rotate in and spell some guys when needed), and we keep our new line together (more to come on this later).

d. Yes it will suck for the big guy, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world (actually its best case scenerio for our buddies up north) for Glenn Falls to get some veteren leadership for just a game or two. If Chris Pronger gets to pair with Erik Gustaffson for a game (or Marshall or Bourdon) or two, it will do miles and miles of work towards all three of our top young defensmen's progression. They are the worst team ever... why not get some help from a game or two from one of the best defensemen ever.

e. Our schedule over the next few weeks: This Saturday vs. NY Rangers (3 days after injury). Monday, December 20 vs. Florida (5 days after injury). Tuesday, December 28 @ Vancouver (13 days after injury). Thursday the 30th, Friday the 31st, Sunday the 2nd, Thursday the 6th @ Kings, Ducks, Wings, Devils (15, 16, 18, and 22 days after the injury). Yes, our annual holiday road trip that lasts ten days (first six on the west coast) starts (count 'em) EIGHT days after our last home game of 2010 this Monday vs. Florida. Why these dates our important. It's safe to say Prongs wont play this weekend or Monday. We've got a 3 point lead on the NHL, there are worse things in the world. Then we have eight days off. If he's healthy then, all is good in the world and he goes on the road trip. Lets say he's not healthy then... he gets to stay home and recuperate with family while eying up the 6th @ NJ or the 8th on the other side of that home  and home with our closest rival. I'm FINE with him missing the road trip. He's 35 and nicked up, this will be his two week vacation. He then can rehab if he needs to or just come back for the NJ game (whichever one). If the injury is longer than this that will be a problem, especially because Walker is not eligible to play now. What I want to know is if we are as strapped for cash as Geoff insists we are, what do we do if we have another injury on defense? We have to be able to bring up a guy, if not--- Make room for Shelley as the "Dustin Byfuglin" breakout forward switching to defense guy! Just kidding.

3. Most importantly, I think we have found our lines for the foreseeable future. A defensive lacking puck hog with crazy offensive talent (shrug), a second year guy who is just starting to get hot, and a guy who the end glass hates very much because he insists on drilling them with pucks over and over and over again, combined for our first 4 goals. (I think we should keep them together). For whatever reason, maybe the stars and moon and sun and the non-planed Pluto were all lined up perfectly, but JVR/Carter/Zherdev played out of this world. They were our only +Corsi guys. They dominate play (offensivly and defensivly) and on top of the goals, the were ringing posts all night (at least once, but all night sounds better). After the NHL on the fly had a segment about how Carter had a great defensive game vs. Pittsburgh he opened the scoring with a nifty- Giroux-esque - goal. Then Reemer. Then Z. Then Reemer. With under 10 to go, Laviolette put the three out on the PP and they got it done. Yes JVR and Z who have gotten 7th and 8th most PP time were put out with the lovable "Jeffey" and got the job done. THEN with a minute to go in a 6 on 5 situation in our OWN ZONE who was out on the ice? Betts? Powe? Our new "top d-line" (more to come on that as well)? No. It was the Russian defensivless wonder, JVR, and Jeffie Carter. And they got the job done. If this line can stay together we now have four cemented lines. Our fourth line has always just been "by comitee" with any of Betts, Powe, Shelley, Wellwood, and Carcillo (and I guess Nodl used to be there) so by default we have a set "first" or whatever line with Richards.

4. Which brings me to my next point: steady line-mates. People who know hockey know how much easier it is to wake up knowing who your playing with day in and day out. Hartnell-Briere-Leino has been together for 6 months now and they are awesome. JVR-Carter-Zherdev will be together for the next few games at least and if they string together a few good ones they will be set for a while. Betts-Powe-Shelley/Carcillo is a solid defensive checking line that isn't going anywhere. That leaves who? Oh yeah, on top of two scoring lines containing six legitimate 60 points scorers (Carter has put up 40 goals and been a top 8 goal scorer in each of the past two years, LBH has 22-24 points a guy right now, Zherdev has had 25 goals in an NHL season before, and this version of JVR has been almost PPG) we've got our top two scorers left to play together: Claude and Richie. They are amazing on the PK together... so why not put our 5th PK forward with them to make them THE BEST DEFENSIVE FORWARD line in the league. Is that outrageous? Who cares. These guys shut down Crosby to ZERO shots. Richie and G will get their points no matter what. This line is young, skilled, and defensive oriented. I'd take this line over ANY LINE IN THE LEAGUE. I'd love to keep a tally going of what the line opposed to these guys does while 5-5.

5. Here is what happened. Coach Laviolette gave this speech to his team after the game was tied up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKq1uF1T__8&feature=related

Then we got angry and did this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwMIot_hbZ8&feature=related

The emotion we've shown in the past 2 games shows why were the best team in the league. Zherdev was pumped as a mo-fo vs. the Pens after his goal. Hartnell gave one of the best fist pumps EVER after his goal to take the lead in that game as well. And after the go-ahead goal last game JVR showed some FIRE.

We have a tough stretch, especially with out the big guy will show us a lot about this team. They have already showed me what I wanted to see thus far, and I don't think they will do anything but answer the bell with out Pronger. In our next 8 games, I expect 10 of 16 points. I'm not expecting Pronger to play, and I think 10 is a fair amount of points to call an over/under on.

ONE MORE THING... (sorry)... There was an article a few weeks ago showing Subban (asshole) bumping (to say the least) Giroux hard into the MTL net (because he is an asshole). After Subban turns it over to Richie (hahahahaha payback is a bitch. The captain backed up his shit talking) who makes a great pass to Giroux (probably should have been defended but Subban smacked his stick on the ground and was lazy to get back into the play... again... hahahahhah) who nets it for the two goal lead. Subban, still skating towards the net drills Giroux again. I was just wondering if anyone saw this as well.

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I had to do it...

Homer has made some great moves and some poor ones. The Randy Jones fiasco was horrible. The Dan Carcillo acquiring was just sad. Spending lots of money on Shelley, Meszaros, and Leighton instead of keeping Gagne was ballsey, but Homer had the teams best interest weather we like it or not. There is no way to say how good we would be with Gags, Richie and Claude together; but can you really complain right now? This team is firing on all cylinders and we still have guys just staring to play well. As a GM, this year, lets look at how Homer has been:

No.    Player    How Aquired    $/Yrs      Grade
3    Bartullis    Resigned    .600/3        A: Great young 8th D-man for cheap.
5    Coburn    Resigned    3.20/2    (From ATL for Alexi Zhitnik)    B-: The money is high, but we can re-evaluate after only two years
6    O'Donnell    FA    1.30/1        A+: Yeah 1.3 is a lot for a 6th guy, but he's been amazing, atop the league in +/-
11    Betts    Resigned    .700/2    (FA via try-out)    A+: One of the top 4th line centers in the league for under a mil
13    Carcillo    Trade/RFA    1.075/1    (Trade for Upshall and 2R)    D/C: The trade was horrible but only because of the second rounder we had to give up. The signing was a little expensive for a 13th forward, but its only one year.
14    Laperriere    FA    3/1.66        B-: He's the man, but if he haunts our cap for two years, it would really suck.
15    Nodl    BEFORE HOMER    .850 Million        N/A: He gave him a shot and he's played well, but as a GM he's done nothing. Hopefully we'll lock him up for a few years this offseason.
17    Carter    Resigned    11/5.25        B: We'll see how this plays out. if he puts in 30 a year for 11 years can we really argue 5.25?
18    Richards    Resigned    12/5.75        B+: See above, but with 75 points instead of 30 goals.
19    Hartnell    Trade/Sign    6/4.2    (Trade w/ Timo for NSH 1R)    B: A little expensive but this move with Kimo and Briere made us immediate contenders just one year after being the worst team in the league.
20    Pronger    Trade/Sign    7/4.92    (Trade w/ Dingle for 2 1R, Sbisa, Lupul)    A-: Does Lupul fit in on this team? Sbisa definatly does not. Yeah the 2 picks suck, but big 20 is the man.
21    vanReimsdyk    Draft 2OA    3/1.65        B: Still very early. No one in that entire draft class aside from Kane has done anything.
22    Lieno    Trade    .800 Million    (Trade for OKT and 5R)    A+: Perfect deal. Hopefully he'll stay here.
25    Carle    Trade    3.437 Million    (Trade w/ 3R for Eminger, Downie, 4R)    B: I loved the deal, but he is awfully expensive.
28    Giroux    Resigned    3/3.75        A+: No need for explination. Best $ value in the league.
33    Boucher    FA    2/.925        B+: He got us to the playoffs. Then past NJ. Then turned aroudn the BOS series.
35    Bobrovsky    UDFA    3/1.75        A: Not giving the A+ just 20 games into a rookie's season, but i can't go lower than an A.
36    Powe    FA/Resign    1/.725        A: Leads team in hitting. Fights when has to. Great on defense. My favorite player. We better keep him.
41    Meszaros    Trade    4 Million    (Trade for 2R)    B: Too much for a 5th, but he's atop the league in +/-
44    Timonen    Trade/Sign    6/6.3    (Trade w/ Harts for NSH 1R)    B+: See: Hartnell, Scott

45    Shelley    FA    3/1.1        C: Too much money for too many years. Not in the top tier of fighters, but still a legit heavyweight. But a good guy to have who knows his role and is okay with 5 minutes a game. We are stacked up top so his minutes will go to guys who need those.
48    Briere    FA    8/6.5        B+: See: Hartnell, Scott and Timonen, Kimmo
49    Leighton    Waivers/Sign    2/1.55        A+/C-: Great pickup last year. Too much money for this new contract, but with Bob and Boosh playing fine, will he even be a Flyer again?
93    Zherdev    FA    1/2.0        B: too early to tell. Great player with tons of potential. If he nets 20-25 can we really complain? I'm writing this as he did his dipsy doo to score the first goal in the Calgary game.

The Homer for GM of the year got mixed reviews from us here at BSH, but I have stood by Homer for a while. Yeah his cap issues have hurt us, but he's done an extrodinary job to keep us competitive from day one. He's been able to play for the now (Harts/Prongs/Briere/OD/Timo) while setting us up for the future (Lieno/Richie/Carts/JVR/Giroux/Nodl/Wellwood). Yeah our Phantoms might be the worst AHL team ever, but they have what we need: Defense. With G/JVR/Carts/Richie our scoring is locked in for years to come. Even when Danny B is gone, and Harts and Zherdev and maybe even Lieno, that money will go strait to getting more scoreres, and there will always be scorers available. Pronger and Timo are getting older, but we have their replacements. Gustaffson, Bourdon, Marshall, Syvrett, and Bartullis have to be considered one of the better young D-core in the league. We don't have a "1" but with Mez, Coby, and Carle, they have all of the long term expierence we need to fill out a solid defense. Knowing Homer and Snyder, I wouldn't be surprised that when Pronger and Timo are gone, we'll have two new top guns via free agency. The Flyers play for the now, and with us atop the league being led by a great mix of young up and comers, wiley vets, and guys just entering their prime, I say Paul Holmgren has done a fantastic job to set us up for this year and the short term future.

I am not sure if anything like this has ever been posted about on this site, so I’m deciding to give it a try. That one Old Spice commercial a few years ago bragged about how the sense of smell is the strongest sense tied to memory. That might be true, but sound is pretty strong too. There are just some songs or noises I hear that not only remind me of stuff, but also genuinely make me feel better or give me goose bumps or give me a total mood change. Some of these songs are random, but some have a lot to do with our Philadelphia Flyers. After I list my metaphorical “Flyers Play lists”, don’t hesitate to list your own.

1.    I Gotta Feeling- Black Eyed Peas. If any of you have been fortunate enough to go to a ECF or SCF playoff game, or even this years home opener, then you have heard this song. I’m not sure about every home game, but for those previously mentioned games, the pre game montage opens up with this song.
2.    Not Afraid- Eminem. I’m pretty sure it was NBC but they did their pre game get ready montage to this game before every SCF game. It was always filled with both Flyer and Hawk highlights, but it always ended with a Flyer highlight. I was convinced it would be our slogan this year: Flyer Hockey 2010-11: “Not Afraid.” I guess not… but still a great song.
3.    The Orange And The Black- The Boils. This is our “win” song I guess. Its played in the stadium after every win. Pretty easy one.
4.    Bro Hymn- Pennywise. Goal song.
5.    ?Hot Hot Hot? They play this song after each 4th goal we score, symbolizing the free McDonalds breakfast sandwich that each ticket stub generates the next morning. I have been lucky enough to hear this song a lot, not because I go to many games, but because of a 17 game professional/college win streak I’ve had while in attendance. The teams included: Flyers, Phillies, Eagles, Florida Gators (once), Temple Basketball and Temple Football. That streak ended on game 6 of the NLCS :(
6.    Sound of Madness- Shinedown. Pregame montage song for 2009-10 second half of the season. This song got me JACKED!
7.    More Human Than Human- White Zombie. This is either the montage for this year or during the playoffs last year or both. I cannot remember. But the opening of this song is a great pump up song.
8.    Go Johnny Go- ?. They played this when my favorite Flyer Sean O’Donnell, I mean John LeClair scored.
9.    Hove?- Jay-Z. I’m not sure the exact name of this song, but it is the song they come out to during warm ups for the past few years. “Please allow me to introduce my self my name is HOVE. H- to the – O – V”
10.    Vs. has a commercial with a song in the background with everyone running to their bars/pubs/stadiums to get to the game. Theres a clip of a kid in a Reemer jersey. The song goes, “Take me hooooooo ooo o ooooo ooome” I can’t describe it better than that. Anyone know it?
Anyone have any other good ones?

Before taking a real deep look at the numbers, lets just look to see some basic stats. Sergei Bobrovsky. 2.09 and .931. You don’t need to be a hockey whiz to figure those numbers out. He’s 6th in the league among starters with his 2.09 GAA, and 5th among starters with his .931. He is quick, he says the right things, and best of all, he’s going to be a Flyer for at least three years. I have a feeling that if this keeps up our long term goalie question will finally be answered! At the NHL.com “LW” position, we have two guys who are in the top 15 in points. Ville Lieno at 9 with 13, and Scott Hartnell at 15 with 11. Lieno also has 10 assists, good for 4th among NHL LWers. Flipping to the RW, Claude has 16 points, good for 4th and Danny Briere has 12 points (only 13 games) which is good for 14th. Briere’s 8 goals is good for 2nd among RW’s.  The centers didn’t want to feel left out, and Richards and Carter are tied for 13th respectively in C points with 14 each. Carter is tied for goals at fourth place with 8, while Richie has 10 assists, good for an eighth place tie. Pronger’s three goals puts him tied at 10th for all defenders, Kimmo’s 7 assists is good for a 16th place tie with… the offensive DYNAMO Mike Green, while Sean O’Donnell and Andrej Meszaros (a slight upgrade over Syvret/Bartullis/Parent/Kraijeck) are 3rd and 5th in the league for +/-, and most importantly: we have no Flyers in the top 30 for TOI/G (23.32).  Blair Betts is a +5 with 6 points, Andreas Nodl has finally found some offense with 5 points in 8 games, and Powe is chipping in with 5 in 16. Even Jody Shelley has an assist and is a +1 (had to do that). The heated debates this year (other than Shelley) have been about advanced stats, so lets take a look at those.

The first thing that stands out to me (I am not a master of advanced stats, so feel free to tell me how good my arguments are, they can only get better with your guys critisism) is Brian Boucher. His GFON/60 (Goals scored while he’s on the ice) is a 3.01, which is higher than Bob’s 2.94; meaning that Boosh has gotten more help than BOB (this is of course 5 on 5)! Bob’s 1.58 GA/60 for 5 on 5 hockey is good for 5th in the league among guys who have started at least 9 games (Tim Thomas is at 9 and I didn’t want to exclude him). His ESS% and PKS% are both top notch, and got even better from the last time I posted about them in the “Random Questions” fan post.

Now here is my “test” I guess, to see if I learned anything from all of the information that you guys threw at me last week. The Flyers have only 5 positive forward “ratings” (Individual +/- less the +/- when the player is off of the ice), and three of them play together. Can you guess which line is dominating the ice so much that it is basically skewing the ratings of the other Flyers? Yep its Briere, Lieno, Hartnell all with ratings over 1.55 (under 2). The only three other positives (keep in mind this is all even strenghth) are Andreas Nodl (1.27) and James van Reimsdyk (1.05) and Blair Betts (.59). Dead last: Mike Richards with a -2.53 (His special teams make up for it though). Powe, Richards and Carter are all seeing the top opposistion, with only Briere, Giroux and Nodl notching competition over 0. And the LHB line is dominating the QualTeam category. Surprisingly enough, Andreas Nodl, yes the guy who is playing with Mike Richards has the lowest QualTeam with Richards right below the LHB line (LBH only Flyers over 0). Now comes the problem with sample size: G/60 is led By Andreas Nodl  with a 1.98. Zherdev has a 1.91, good for second on the team, followed by Betts’ 1.7. Giroux only has a .3 G/60, lowest of anyone who scored.  Nodl stays atop the P/60 with a 3.3 with Betts, Carter, Harts, and Giroux behind him. From the bottom up… Shelley (no surprise), Carcillo (no surprise), Richards (big surprise), JVR (big surprise). Those two need to play better even strength, and its no surprise they have been playing together.  Only 2 Flyers have been outscored ES… Carcillo and Richards. The top 5 here is a common trend. Nodl. HBL. Betts. JVR, Carter, and Zherdev follow; somewhat shocking to me.
One major problem has been the penalties for the Flyers. Shelley has taken over 5 times more penalties than he’s drawn per 60. Powe has taken 4x more, Carter has taken almost 8x more, Richards 1.5 more, while hartnell has racked up his taken and has none drawn to even create a ratio. On the converse, Zherdev has drawn 4x more, Giroux is 3x better, Carbomb is 2x good, and Lieno is 4x. Danny has taken more than his fair share, but he takes 2 per 60, and draws 2 per 60, so that breaks down evenly.

Now to the power play… Briere (4.34), Giroux (3.57), Carter (2.47), Lieno (1.41), and Richie (1.25) are the only forwards to score on the PP, and those are their G/60. Richards has 3.75 first assists per 60 good for first on the team, while Hartnell is the only Flyer to rack an assist that didn’t have a goal. Zherdev and JVR have 1.72 and 1.07 TOI/60 and have yet to record a point.

Short handed… The Flyers have only 2 PK units that have given up goals. Powe/Betts and Richie/Giroux. The Powe Betts combo is averaging 5.32 GA/60, while the Richie combo has only given up 2.57. It is clear who our number one unit is. If it wasn’t clear before, Giroux’s GF/60 is a 5 and Richies is a 4 as the two of them are actually outscoring the opposition on the PK 4-2 and 3-2. Those numbers, a quarter through a season, are ridiculous. Matt Cooke is the only one who compairs with a 3-1 ratio. Everyone else with 2’s GA look like this: 6,4,4,3,11 etc. What Claude and Richie are doing while short handed is out of this world.

In conclusion, I would say that this Flyers team is just as good as their record. There are 3 elite teams in my mind in the East: Us, Pittsburgh, and the Caps. Right now, our goalie is playing with the best in the league. Our GA/G is 2.19 good for fifth in the league, with depth we couldn’t have imagined last year, and a bomb threat at the point of our PP that’s ranked 11th at 20.3%. Our short handed units are crazy good, ranked 9th in the league at 86.4, and if GF were included we would be top 5. Last night helped our G/G get to 3rd in the league with a 3.31, and we have two guys at each position in the top 15 in points. We are scary good, and last year was no fluke

This past spring I put forth an effort into really learning the baseball advanced stats and my baseball knowledge has skyrocketed. Advanced stats in baseball are starting to take over the fantasy baseball world and they are becoming more and more prevalent in the overall baseball world. Before the advanced stat revolution in the MLB the most "important" stats for batters are batting average, RBI, runs, steals, and HR. Those stats have been not replaced, but now backed up by SX, PX, Ct%, BABIP etc. On the mound the ERA, W/L, etc. have been replace with Cmd, Ctl, BABIP, Strand rate etc. For hockey the problem that I have with advanced stats is that I feel (bias opinion, I know) that the stats are to reliant on the teammates and competition, whereas in baseball it is one on one. (This goes out mainly to Geoff, because he uses advanced stats in the most comprehendable way, IMO) If you guys could help me out with the most important advanced stats that reflect personal play more than anything for players, and any advanced stats for goalies, it would be greatly appreciated. Instead of being ignorant, as a common poster on this sight, I would love to be able to use some advanced stats in my arguments. Thanks guys.

First off, what a great winning streak that was, and lets hope the point streak continues. Beating Carolina and Florida are things that we have to do this year every time if we want to stay atop the standings. It would be great to give Boosh a start, and to score a few in front of him, although Bob has been A-MAY-ZING. Now for some random questions thrown together in a fan post.

1. The Flyers have four retired numbers: Bernie Parent (1), Barry Ashbee (4), Bill Barber (7), and Bobby Clarke (16). No Flyer will ever wear these four numbers ever again right? All other numbers (except Pelle's unofficial 31 retirement) are all fair game, right? I just want to make sure I have that correct.

2. Sergei Bobrovsky... is he the real deal. Do you feel comfortable calling him the goalie of the now and the future. If someone said that we signed him on a 10 year deal for say- 25 million total to start after his third year (10/2.5 per from 25-34 years old) would you be okay with that? I know the numbers are not totally realistic, although I'm sure if we offered it right now, there is no way he would turn down 25 million. Tied for 7th in the league with 11 starts. Tied for FIRST in the league with 8 wins. Of the 19 goalies with 10 games started he is one of three with at most two regulation losses. 8th in the league in GAA (2.19), but 6th if you take out the two back-ups with 6-8 starts above him. 8th in save % (.926). I don't know how to accumulate or find any goalie advanced stats, but feel free to add them, as I'm sure they are pretty good.

3. Is this Flyers team going to keep up this consistancy that it showed in the playoffs and over the past few weeks? This team has been so much fun to watch because it has so many great players on it. Bob is a show himself. Pronger and Timonen are two of the best vets in the league. OD and Mez have been everything we dreamed of and Coby and Carle are continuing to progress. Giroux is finally being seen as a top guy in the league, like he should be. Richards is playing great with guys that we didn't dream would be on his line. The LBH line hasn't lost a step. Our fourth line is among tops in the league. (Have to throw in a Shelley reference, sorry) Every time one of our guys drops the gloves we know that there is a more than good chance we will have a great, entertaining fight; and we COULD win it (Unlike Cote, where we prayed he didn't need to be carted off). Zherdev is starting to play like the phenom he was once supposed to be and on top of everything: Carter has been quiet and JVR has done nothing. They can only get better from here. And oh yeah, Andreas Nodl has been great and so has Wellwood. This team has been so much fun to watch every game, and I hope the effort stays. Well go hot and cold, no matter how consistant a team can be they will throw a couple duds up there, but as long as guys know that if they play bad they're in the press box next game, the effort will be there. We have 15 legit NHL forwards for a 12 man roster. 3 are out. Incentive to get on the ice is there. We have 8 legit PP guys. Incentive to be in that top 6 for an individual game is there. We've got kids waiting in the wings on defense... If anything happens on the blue line we should be okay.

Happy Monday, I just wanted to get this all off of my chest.

The Flyers (hopefully) just won their big game that gets them going this year. After playing two games to open up other team's season, having Gagne return, a game against the hottest team in the conference (well I guess their cooling down), two against the Pens, Pronger missing more than a quarter of the games, and having no true starter we are still 3-3-1. Not good, but we could be worse. There are a lot of questions on this team, starting with the goal tending, but that's not being looked at right now. The Flyers have 2 fourth liners (Betts and Shelley) and 8 top 9 guys (Richie, Carter, Lieno, Briere, Hartnell, Zherdev, Giroux, JVR). We can plug in 3 different people to fill the void on the bottom in Powe, Nodl, or Carcillo but the problem in the top 9 is much greater. We have options, but none of them have been really good. Dan Carcillo, Andreas Nodl, and Darrol Powe have all had opportunities to play on the "top line" with either Richards and Giroux or Richards and Carter, but other than Powe playing okay in just one game, no one has stood out. So now the question becomes, what is our best option?

Dan Carcillo: This season, in four games on the "top line" he has zero points and was a -3. He really brought nothing to the table up there and I think his physicality took a hit. Gagne and Richards had so much chemistry together last year when Carcillo played the right wing with them, he barely had to do anything. This year, with Carter, Carcillo has not helped the lack of chemistry that the Captain and Carter haven't had so far. Carcillo also didn't fight up there. His best times as a Flyer have been with Betts and Lappy last year on the fourth line. A Powe, Betts, Carcillo line would be great, but with Shelley here, we really can't do that (even though that is what most of the people on this site would love to see).

Andreas Nodl: 2 games, 3 shots, -1. Not much here. It was thought he'd be able to kill penalties for us because he did a solid job in the pre-season and last post season but he hasn't done any of that in his two games. He got his shot with Richards but didn't really do much. Did he blow his chance for the year? Of course not, it is way too early to say that, but he certainly didn't help his cause. He has some offensive potential as he showed at St. Cloud State but for now, he's a fourth liner, maybe a third liner in a different situation (think Scotty Upshall when he was here, played really good on a checking line and when he had a Carter on his line he could score a little bit), but as a pure "first liner" he really doesn't have a shot.

Darroll Powe: Last game was his first shot up top with Giroux and Richards and he played pretty well. He had an assist and two PIM in just under 15 minutes (45 secs PP, 2.5 mins PK) and played an overall good game. This season he's already got three points (one goal) and is +1 in all seven games. There is a ridiculous stat lying around somewhere about our record last year with and without him and if you have no idea what I'm talking about, we are WAY better with him. I think Darroll's performance warrants another game or two up there and I am hoping for the best, but after watching him for two years, I don't think he can continuously sustain the offence we need up at the top.

Patrick Maroon: On a Phantoms team where the offense has had 20 goals in 9 games, Maroon has been the only positive. Last preseason it was Maroon getting the love that Testwuide got this year, but he didn't play up to par and was beat out by JVR and Mika Pyorola. This year he flew under the radar with all of the newcomers at camp and Testwuide and it obviously helped him a lot. He's got 8 points (4/4) and has played far and away better than anyone on that whole team. He was the MVP of the USA in-line team, dominating the entire tournament and he is a big big body at 6'4 225. He can scrap as he has had 6 fights last year, and he could be the Mike Knuble we have been missing. On a line with Richards and Giroux he can flourish. Why hasn't this kid had a shot? Stefan Legin and David LiLaberte who led the AHL team in goals last year don't have any, and Patrick had 4.

What do you guys think?

The Code: The Unwritten Rules of Fighting and Retaliation in the NHL. Here are some quotes.

Tony Twist: I used to have fun fighting, I really did. Sometimes I would even tell my line mates that they could go out and do whatever thee hell they wanted to out on the ice and I would have their backs. I remember telling Tyson Nash that one time. I said, 'Nasher, you're on my line today and I am feeling generous. I am giving you a free pass to gou out and do whatever you want, anywhere to anyone. You can hack, slash, clip, hit someone in the head. I don't care because as soon as they come for you I will be there to step in. Just go for it.' I would tell those guys that right in the face off circle too, so the guys on the other team could hear me. It would just scare the hell out of them, and my guys could skate end to end untouched. It was awesome. Intimidation gave you power, it really did.

Doug Weight: You might get [an agitator] thinking, 'I don't want to fight and I don't want to get hurt, so I'll just chill tonight. I'll take it easy.' That frees your skilled players to play.

Nick Foitiu: I only have around 1300 or so [penalty minutes] over my 14 year sin the league, which isn't all that many for a tough guy. That number means so much to me, though, because it signifies the fact that my presence alone out there negated most fights from ever happening. I mean, if you could get to a point where your presence alone could serve as a deterrent for your opposition from playing dirty and running your top guys, then you won half the battle before you even stepped onto the ice.

Marty McSorley: Fighting is all about deterrence. Hopefully my presence out on the ice would deter dirty play and disrespect towards my teammates. I tell you what, fights settle the game down and clean up. I've seen it happen a million times. And most of the time it didn't even come to that; things were settled with words or by us just being visible on the end of the bench.

McSorley on teammate and fellow tough guy Dave Semenko: He just had this way of looking at him [any agitator pissing off Gretzky or Messier] and then he would very calmly say, "Okay, somebody is going to get hurt out here." And that was the end of whatever was going on, guaranteed. Nobody wanted to mess with that guy. He cleaned up the game way more than people will ever know. Nobody wanted to piss him off, nobody.

McSorley once more: The mere presence of a tough guy, in many games, will in itself deter any scrums, cheap shots, unnecessary obstruction, or little intimidation tactics , and keeps the game flowing freely.

Rob Ray: There is more to the code than anybody outside of hockey could ever possibly understand.

I wanted to make this a new post to organize my claim that Jody Shelley plays a role far greater than anyone not on the ice can understand. Especially the last quote. Until you stand in front of Shelley with the gloves off, you truly cannot understand the value that he brings to the Flyers.

My TOI:

Richards 20, Carter 19, Briere 17, Giroux 18, JVR 17, Lieno 15, Hartnell 16, Zherdev 14, Betts/Powe 11 each, Carcillo 8, Shelley 4. (If you want Nodl in over Carcillo, give him a few more mins than Carcillo, take a little time off of Betts and powe, and you can find another minute or two for him based on everyone's play that night). Shelley getting so few minutes is actually good for us because it gets JVR and Giroux top line minutes. They have come into their own and can handle their minutes. They should be right around Briere's time with maybe Claude getting more than Danny B.

Starting on Wednesday Philly sports have been great. No hitter for Roy. Beating the Pens in Pittsburgh. Great comeback win to go up 2-0 in the NLDS. Stealing a point in a young team's home opener. Now on to my post...

If someone asked you if 3 of 4 was acceptable --- with the 2 coming in regulation against Pittsburgh --- you would take it. That being said we were able to go into the Lions den and take it to the Pens. Come back two days later, and play very sloppy, undisciplined hockey, take ten penalties and still get a point in the opener for St. Louis. We have had a rookie goalie play very solid in a win, and a veteran goalie play just as solid, if not more, in a loss. Chris Pronger hasn't played yet, which is a good thing- IMO. He's getting healthy and were still floating along. Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, and Dan Carcillo havn't showed the chemistry so far, but the Briere line has been solid, Claude has been as advertised, and JVR has been playing like the 2nd overall pick that we need him to play like. People are calling for the split of the "top line", but that isn't the big dilemma to me.

We have our opener on Monday and who starts in net? That is the big question. We really can't go wrong. This crowd loves the idea of having a true #1 waiting in the wings, but we've been there before. We've seen how quickly these kid's confidence can turn to mush. This crowd also loves BOOOOOSH. Like I said before, we can't go wrong, with lots of positives coming from both guys. Personally, I'd love to see Boosh get the start, to save Bob for the Eastern Confrence game on Thursday. But this kid has had all of the right things happend to him so far, so I'm not "against" a BOB start, just not expecting it. Boosh is more firmilliar with these Western Conf teams, and the Eastern Conf teams don't need the opportunity to watch BOB when they don't have to. If he's going to be the guy of the future, then save him for the East. Or just start him because he is the man!

What do you guys think?

This line is more of my personal opinion of them last night more than how they will be for the entire season. For starters, we were on the road. We couldn't match up our top checking line with their scoring line. That being said, the game started with our Richards, Carter, Carcillo line. They threw out, as expected, the Crosby line. Mike Richards understands his role. He is our captain. If the team needs him to play wing... He'll play wing. If they want him to play defense... He'll play defense. If they want him to be our GOALIE, he'll do it. So when he's gotta go up against the crosby line (or the Towes/Kane/Byfulgian (Hossa) line) he knows his primary goal is to shut them down. Like Emerik and all those other guys were saying last night, the winner of that game (and most games) is the winner of the battle of the third line. The last meaningful seven games we played the Mike Richards/Jeff Carter/Dan Carcillo (Simone Gagne) line's primary responsibility has been shutting down the opposition's top line. The Hawks top line was nothing against us. The Crosby line (and Malkin) were nothing against us. This line is an amazing blend of size, speed, grit, and defensive ability. I'd be fine if they didn't get a point all year, but neither did the opposition's top line (yeah it's an exageration and would never happen), but if it did happen we would win 70% of the games we play.

Guys, it has been one game. Please don't call for the break-up of our "top line". Top line means a line that can score and play defense. Danny/Harts/Ville is a great SCORING line, but if you put that line against the competition that the Richie line goes against, we'd be in 5-6 type games all the time... and that goes for the JVR/G/Z line also. The top line had 10 of the 34 hits (Richie had 4, Carcillo had 5), won 9 of 20 faceoffs, and Richie tacked on a great PP assist. My plea to you is to try to watch the game through just the numbers, and to see how effective the two way play of this line is. If you need an example, remember how Richie fired that slap shot on the breakaway? Lots of guys take it to the net, don't score and create an odd man rush for the bad guys in the other way.

Guys, we just beat the Penguins, in their house, the night it opened, on opening hockey night, without big Chris Pronger, and a 22-year-old rookie goalie in net. If the only real negative is the offensive chemistry of our top line wasn't on point against the defending Rocket Richard Trophy winner... then I'd say we did a pretty good job.

Go Flyers!

After months and months and months of over analyzing and questioning and praising the Flyers the day has finally come. Today our quest to return to the cup finals begins and as it should, we get the Pens. I would like to give one more analytical essay if you will, directed towards tonight's game. I'm taking it line by line, and pairing by pairing.

Line 1: Carcillo/Richards/Carter: Home field advantage, unlike any other sport except baseball with home team batting last, has a distinct advantage in hockey. Not only the crowd noise, but the advantage of last change. This means if we throw our scorers on the ice they throw their checkers, etc. The Pens get the match-up choice, and I'd imagine they want the Stall line matched up against our Richie/Carter line. I know that we like to match Richards against Crosby, and this can happen (and I'll talk about that later), but there is a way that we can win this match up. The Pens like Carter's line on Stall's line because they feel Stall's has the size, speed, and physicality to match up with Carter. Well with Richie and Carter on the same line with Carbomb, we can unleash the beast to counter Stall. If we get this match-up we win. If we get the Crosby match-up we win greatly. If this line can create time and space for Carter to unload, its a +1 for us.

PS If Carbomb gets Asham... he better fucking destroy him. Pardon my French, but when you hop overboard and jump in the enemies boat, you need to get smashed.

Line 2: Hartnell/Betts/Lieno: The primary objective of this line is to draw the Stall line. If this line gets a majority of offensive zone draws, it is very possible the Stall checking line goes here, which puts the Crosby line covering Richies line. If we get that matchup, this line has the speed to neutralise Stall's size and physicality. Richie's line on Crosby's line is way more physical, and can create turnovers and get the puck going the other way. Back to line two, they need to control the puck and get it deep behind the net into Briere's office. The less time this line is in the defensive zone the better. If Briere controls the pace of the shifts, Hartnell creates space and plays like he's in the playoffs, and Ville doesn't get killed... we'll be fine here.

Line 3: JVR/Giroux/Zherdev: I don't think the Stall line has a shot matching up here, and if they dont this is like a +10. This line has potential to be THE BEST IN THE LEAGUE in a few years. Giroux and JVR will come out huge, and Zherdev has something to proove. This line is the x factor. It is THE BEST THIRD LINE in the league and will create matchup hell for EVERYONE. They lack physicality but with OD, Prongs, and Coburn on each of the three D pairings, we will be fine. KEY TO THE GAME: THIS LINE NEEDS TO BE PLUS

Line 4: Shelly/Betts/Powe: First off, its great to finally have a guy to stand up to Eric Goddard. If they fight, I hope that Shelly gets some good ones in to get the bench fired up for a positive reason for once (Sorry Riley, when you fought they got fired up becasue they thought you just got killed). These guys will take lots of own zone draws, and we need to win more than half of them. Betts needs to play great, and so does Powe. I imagen lots of Shelly's shifts (about half) will go to Carcillo, with those shifts replaced by guys like Giroux and JVR and Briere etc.

Defense 1: Carle/ Pronger (Mez/OD): Pronger wont take every one of his shifts tonight, and I imagen that Meszaros and O'Donnell will take those extras. Matt Carle's job is to play really well and take the pressure off of Pronger. If this line can still be physical, they will be amazing like always. We need a shut down of a top line, and Big 20 and his trusty sidekick Matty Carle normally provide nothing less.

Defense 2: Timonen/Coburn: This is the huge line tonight. As the J/G/Z line is to the offense, the 5/44 pairing is the key to the defense. This line is going to be asked to play 25+ minutes easilly. They have to shut down Crosby and Malkin. Can Coburn play like he did in the preseason? Can Timonen play like he did in the post season? If they do we win. If not then we lose. I think this game is that simple.

Defense 3: Mez/OD: No matter what they are way better than what we had. I don't care if they turn around and shoot on their own goalie. They are still and upgrade. Anyway, if they can get twelve minutes atleast, ideally fifteen a piece without allowing a goal, this line did as advertised. There is no reason 5.1 million a year at the blueline should give up a goal, even strength, against poor competition, in only fifteen minutes. That is a fair challange for them. And I'd love to see how many times it happend last year and tally for this year.

On the PK: Being as the Flyers gave up third most penalties this year, this match-up is huge. Pitt was 20th in the league on the PP, but with Malkin and Crosby they are dangerous. They dont have Sergei Gonchar anymore, which is a nod for us, but they got Zibnin MIlichech (I have no idea how to spell that name of the FA defensmen they got from Phoenix) which is a nod for them. The point is we had the 11th best PK% with way more opportunites allowing more goals. We need to stay out of the box and when we dont we need Powe to fill some big tough shoes.

On the PP: They were shorthanded fifth most, which is a shock to everyone and we have had the sixth most pp opportunities, so we can take advantage of this. We had the third best PP% and they had the eleventh best PK% and we have 6 "New Weapons" on our PP (Giroux and JVR are based on what I saw in the pre-season completley different, more confident players, Hartnell is back to normal again (I hope), Briere is in the same boat that Hartnell is in and then we have Zherdev and Lieno who literally are new weapons. If we can cash in on the PP it would be huge.

Goalies: (lets talk after the game about this one)

There is my analysis. Lets Go Flyers.

I have been an avid member of the fantasy sports society for almost ten years. Baseball and football are my only two games because they don't really conflict, and those are the two most popular and, IMO, fun fantasy sports. My knowledge of the player pool far surpasses my knowledge of hockey, but that could be fixed with a little bit of research. My problem with hockey is that my centers looked like this last year in both leagues I played in: Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Blair Betts. My wings looked like this: Giroux, JVR, Cote. My defense had both Bartullis AND Kraijeck. Needless to say Leights was my goalie with a mix of Backy and Boosh. I am a homer. I hate every other team in the east. The olympics helped my knoledge and fandom a little bit, giving me soft spots for guys like Dusty Brown, David Backes, (not Kane, I just didn't like his game), Ryan Miller, and even division foes like Chris Drury, Ryan Calahan, Zach Parise, and even Brooks Orpic.

My question to you fantasy guys, "does becoming a fantasy guy hurt your Flyer fanhood?"

Before camp the "hottest prospect" was Mike Testwuide. Not that he hasn't performed, but he really had no shot to make the team. Right now our top dog is Russian sensation Sergei Bobrovsky. He was signed as an undrafted free agent this offseason and was expected to back up Johan Backlund, at the AHL level, who is currently nursing a hip injury. While them two were in the AHL battling for time, Michael Leighton was supposed to man the pipes for the big guys with Boosh backing up. Then came Backlund's injury, which gave all of Backlund's preseason playing time to the kid. And then the kid came to play. Last year in Russia in 35 games, on the worst team in the league (9-22-3) he racked up a 2.72/.919 one year after he had 2.49/.927 on a team that was 7-20-2. To put those numbers some perspective... Ray Emery in the previous year went 22-8 with a 2.12 and a .926, so the kid's numbers are legit.

After he gets 3 games (1 start) he went 2-0-1 with a .940 and a 1.57 (3 goals in 50 shots) with every game resulting in a shootout. Those numbers are nothing short of spectacular, however he did give up a few weak goals. I only got to see one of his appearences and he made two great saves in 7 shots (stopping all 7). The first save was a post to post with plenty of time to spare, not because it was a soft feed, but because he has explosive quickness. The next nice save was a breakaway from Jason Arnot where he comitted (In my best Tim Saunders impression) "Left handed larceny." In my short sample size he performed amazing. So what do we have right now:

1. Michael Leighton: 29 year old guy who just signed a two-year-deal coming off of his only good pro season with a lower back injury causing him to be out for a month (or more).

2. Brian Boucher: 31 year old backup in the last year of his deal who playd admirably last season despite horrible goal production when he played and won the first series of the playoffs and would have gone on if it wasn't for an injury.

3. Johan Backlund: Second year in North America as a 29 year old who was the only bright spot on the Phantoms last year.

4. Sergei Bobrovsky: (see above)

5. Nicola Riopel: Don't know much about him, except for he is young and has some potential.

With Leights and Backlund hurt right now our goalies if the regular season starting tomorrow is Boosh and Bobrovsky, and I wonder if that is a bad thing? Each of those four guys falls into the BEST POSSIBLE SCENERIO for them (except Leights, of course). How, you ask? Lets take a look...

Given the opportunity to start fresh, from day one, is a shot he hasn't had in ten years (his last time as a Flyer) or close to it. This preseason he's 1-0 in one start, with one goal given up in 21 shots. Last season when he was in the Flyers went 9-18-3 and he wasn't the reason they lost, he just had no support. However, when it mattered, he won 3 of the last 4 games getting us into the playoffs and then had the 6th best save % and the second best GAA (behind Leights' 2.46) with a 2.47. My point being, that with an improved defense and a motivated team, he should be fine in net for us. Give him a shot before we panic.

Johan Backlund is not healthy. Before we say, 'OMG WE CANT RUIN THE KID WITH THE NHL' think about what you are doing to Backlund if you throw him in there... He's a 29 year old rookie recovering from his first major surgery, and slow at that. I know he's just a backup up there, but what if he had to play. The risk of re-injury would ruin his season and possibly his carrier if he blows his second chance. Yes he is older, but he's still a rookie with potential. He played great last year, so why ruin him this year. Let him BACKUP for the PHANTOMS. What? Yes. Why even rush him into starting. He's got the expierence down there. Let him get fully healed, leaving the way for Nicola Riopel. Another young guy, looking for an opportunity... let him start. Why not? What do you lose? If he is good then he's good. Win. If he's bad then we can get rid of him because we have three more legitimate goalie canidates coming here soon and one is rated higher (hockeyfutures.com) than Bob! Jokeem Eriksson is our top goalie prospect playing in Sweeden, and he's coming here next year. If Nicola stinks, Eriksson playes for the Phantoms next year. We also have Brad Stewart (college guy we signed, not rated as high as Bob and Erikkson) and Adam Morrisson (3rd round pick a few years ago that had lots of potential before a horrible season last year) to battle it out with Eriksson. So give Riopel the reigns for the first few weeks until Backlund gets healthy and can play you rotate them to keep them fresh. Backlund doesn't need to play 55+ games, keep him as fresh as possible incase of a needed call up. With the Phantoms settled and the starter Boosh, that leaves Bob as your backup. I know, 'why do you want him to back up?' Well, if he's not starting for the Flyers than why ruin his confidence losing down there? I know, your supposed to lose your confidence playing up top and play well down there. Yes, the Phantoms are SUPPOSED to be good this year with all of the young talent, but what if they're not. Then our goalies go through another year of losing, and ask any goale, they'd rather win 5-4 than lose 1-0. Don't believe me? Last year when Boosh was losing htose 2-1 games and as soon as Leights would come back we would win 5-4, who did we want in net. The winner. Boosh's confidence got all messed up even though he was playing well. My point being, Bob can learn a lot from just being up there. Dominick Brown (Phillies top prospect) got called up to split time eventually. And he said something like, 'I learned way more up there by watching than I ever could by playing in AA.' Let Bob stay rested, learn what its like to be an NHL goalie, and get to be with Jeff Reese every day, practicing with NHL players every day. Backlund was a part of that run last year, he doesn't need that atmosphere, he already got that. Now the only way Bob plays is mop up duty, which cant hurt a young player or because Boucher gets hurt. If that happens, Bob is our next best available healthy goalie, so we better start him anyway. Starting Bob as the backup Flyer goalie from day one keeps Boosh's confidence up. Keeps Backlund rehabing untill he's 100%, gives Nicola Riopel a shot to prove himself worthy of being in the debate, and will do a great job in Bobrovsky's progression as a goalie. Salary cap wise its fine because Leights goes on LTIR (1.5 + the .8 or so we had) gives us enough room. Because it's a 2-way deal, when he needs to go down, his salary comes off of the books.

Assuming we sign Billy Guerin, our top 9 is pretty much set. That leaves three guys left in the line-up and 1-2 extra guys. We have a problem and it needs to be solved on who gets those last 4-5 spots. There is one major variable in this problem and his name is Blair Betts. If he is healthy (which I am not counting on), then we are much better off. If he is still injured then we need some maneuvering. There has been lots of talk all over this site, so I am trying to centralize the conversation.

* I am assuming all of this without Ian Laperriere because of his head injury

Scenerio One: Blair Betts is healthy

Last season we acquired Betts and Lappy to take PK minutes away from our best players (Richards and Carter). If we do not have a fourth legitimate PK guy (I am assuming that Richards/Giroux/Carter are the first PK set, with them all rotating, while Betts and another guy man the second unit) then we are in trouble. Having all three guys kill penalties without sharing minutes is a predicament. How do we solve it? One of our fourth line guys. If Betts is healthy, the easy answer is have a fourth line of Shelly/Betts/Powe with Carcillo as our top 9 replacement player. I think that without Lappy to fight, it is important to have Shelly over Carcillo. But Powe must play now that Lappy is done.

Scenario Two: Blair Betts is not ready to go

The common hockey fan says, "problem solved... Throw Carcillo into the lineup  for Betts, and move Powe over to center. That would be fine, but then we are down a man on the PK. Solution: Andreas Nodl. He impressed everyone in the playoffs, then got put on the shelf for a not healthy Lappy. We have been talking about how snake bitten Nodl has been, but I think this is his opportunity to play. Unless a guy like JVR, Lieno, or Guerin can kill PK's then Nodl has to be the guy. Playing this over and over in my mind, I have only one other alternative, and it is kind of out there. Remember Luca Sbisa? Remember how we dressed 7 d-men and played him at winger? Well, if Pronger isn't ready for the start of the season, which he probably wont be, then why not dress Oscars Bartullis and play him on the fourth line with Powe and either Carcillo or Shelly. The benefits here are he can eat up some d-minutes, and he is young enough that maybe... just maybe... he could be a defensive forward. We tried it with Sbisa, so why not?

This conversation has been all over today since we found out about Lappy... now that it has regestered, who would it be in the fourth line if you were Coach Pete.

Everyone gave their opinion of what their perfect off-season would be right after the cup. Most of them sounded like this: Improve goaltending, try not to change much else, maybe add a winger. There were lots of different variations of that, but now that it's all said and done I figured out my ideal off-season looking back.

-No Meszaros (+4 million in cap space)

-Keep Gaggy (-5.5 million in cap space)

-No Leighton (+1.5 million in cap space)

-No Walker (+1.7 mil in cap space)

-No Zherdev (+2 mil)

-No Carcillo (+1 mil)

-Guerin is a perfect fit in the "ideal" off-season (-.7-1 mil)

That leaves us with : Richards/Carter/Gagne. Briere/Lieno/Harts. G/JVR/Guerin. Betts/Powe/Lappy. Pronger/Carle. Kimmo/Coburn. OD/Bartulis. Boucher/(begin debating). That would be the roster and an additional (I'm not good with capgeek so I'm just using my numbers from above) four million in cap space to get a goalie, 7th defender and 13th forward. Personally, I loved our offseason. I think Carcillo will be gone and Guerin will step in and score another 20 goals. I also have a theory why they stuck with Leighton. First off he's firmilliar. Secondly, if he plays like he did for the most part last year, we will be fine with our boulstered defense. By fine I mean top five defensive teams in the league. Third, we have 3 options if he falters, all with tons to proover. Boosh played admirably every time he was called upon. Backlund was the Phantom's MVP and has a Flyers logo on his helmet. He wants to be in the show and I think that given the opportunity he can flourish. That leaves Bobrovsky as the wild card. Yeah he gave up a week two goals in teh rookie game, but like it was said earlier .933 save percentage is fine by me. We didn't want to lock anyone up long term because we have legitimate long term options (another one being our top prospect in hockeyfutures.com, over Bob, Jokeem Eriksson (horrible spelling, I know)) that we dont want to be blocked by a middle of the road goale (Steve Ellis, Marty Biron, etc.) for next year or the year after.

Most of you guys know I'm the ultimate optimist when it comes to the Flyers but what do you guys think of the off-season as a whole, with Billy Guerin being the cherry on top?