More and more, I think that baseball is a general manager's game.  The players on the field--the efficient use of whatever budget exists--puts the team in a position to compete.  You may not be able to win a championship before Opening Day, but you can definitely lose one.

Witness some of the pitchers we had on our opening day roster.

It will be interesting to watch.  This team has big time needs, and I don't know how much to pay.  There  are things to build on.  This is Wayne's chance to show he can take us from 80 wins to 95 wins.

I hope we can make this team better.  It would be great to be in the playoffs next season.

Brad Kullman was on BP radio today.  

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When you look at tonight's starters, you can see how grim it is to be bad. The Astros are running out two guys (Woody Rogriguez 6.86 and Ezequiel Astascio 10.98) to the mound who are bad enough to pitch for Cincy. Even with the caveat that Rogriguez's stats are magnified by one really bad outing, that's nothing to be proud of. We are, in comparison, bringing our "ace" Aaron Harang, and Ramon Ortiz, an absolutely atrocious pitcher thus far. In a post last February entitled what does .500 look like, I took a stab at what you might find in a .500 season for the Reds. What kind of numbers would you need? Essentially, I thought the Reds could, if healthy, score 800 runs. As of today, the Reds have scored 4.92 runs per game, and the club is on a direct line to 800 runs this season. We are second in the National League in runs scored. Don't let anyone kid you, the offense is doing its job. Now, the defensive side of the equation was always the challenge. Using phythagorean methods, at 4.92 scored/game, we obviously need a 4.91 ERA (or so, not counting unearned runs). Last season, our ERA was 5.19, so it is reasonable to say that if DanO and the FO had lowered our ERA by .3 runs per game, we'd be in the running for a .500 season. Doable? Last year's team suffered through 115 innings from Todd Van Poppel and 157 innings from Juan Acevedo. Even better, a 4.63 ERA--a .5 reduction--would have put us in the range of 89 wins. Put that in perspective. A 4.91 ERA would be 13th in the NL this year. A 4.63 ERA would be 12th. That's the tragedy of this season. Even if our pitching was bad, and still well below average, we'd be in the running for a winning season and maybe a wild card berth. Instead, our ERA is 5.66, last in the NL and .5 runs worse than last year. All DanO had to do was build a pitching staff that wasn't putrid. And he failed. I'm so proud.

Ok, I know we were all high on Luke from last year, but he's clearly overmatched right now.  As Marty mentioned last night on the air, we don't have lots of options, but I'm thinking its about time to send him down to work this stuff out.  He's just getting killed every week, and I'm worried he never gets his confidence back.

The pitching situation on this team is so grim it hurts.  Look at the guys we ran out last night.  Except for Mercker, I don't think even one of them belongs on a major league roster right now.

I saw in the Enquirer this AM that on July 5, Machado's rehab ends, and we either have to put him on the 25-man, or expose him to waivers.

I assume we're going to have to bring him up.  I know that would have been the consensus at the beginning of the season.  But with Lopez coming along, maybe...?

Thoughts?

Worst Reds Team Ever

Could this be the worst Reds team ever. This morning, our winning percentage is .382, which projects to a 62-100 season. And a review of records confirms the instinct--in our history, we have rarely been this bad, and we're just a little slippage from being as bad as we ever were.

The 1982 team was the only other team to lose 100 games--their 61-101 record sets the franchise record for most losses in a season. Clearly, that record is in danger.

Percentage wise, we've had some worst seasons in years when the schedule was shorter. For example, here are the seasons below .400 in the NL Only.

1934 (.344)
1937 (.364)
1982, 1931 (.377)
1930 (.380)
2005,1933 (.382)
1932,1914 (.390)
1916 (.392)
1945 (.396)

In other words, based on today's record, the Reds have only had five worse seasons than the one they are having right now. And that just shouldn't be. But we shouldn't be under any illusions about how bad we are right now, because its very, very bad.

Not as bad, I might add, as when the Reds when from 1930-1934, with a winning % below 40% every year. That had to really suck. But we are historically bad for our franchise.

And we are, in my view, relatively healthy. What's missing is that our team went out and got players who are performing really badly.

By the way, that team had a guy named Si Johnson who was 7-22 with an ERA over 5, which was pretty bad in that era. Despite this, and thanks to the war, he pitched until he was 40--17 big league season...some of which were better than 1934 was for him.

Hal today says the Mets told Graves he was tipping his pitches?

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  1. When WMP comes back it would be Pena, Griffey, Kearns and Dunn (1b). Casey would get a rare platoon at bat.
   2. Lopez would be the everyday SS. Aurilia would have to go.
   3. I would start Freel at 2B every day. Jiminez would become this team's Juan Castro. He can play 3B for Randa if he gets hot.
   4. I would use the following batting order and rotation.:

   1. Freel
   2. Lopez
   3. Griffey
   4. Dunn
   5. Pena
   6. Kearns
   7. Randa
   8. LaRue
   9. Pitcher

5. And rotation

   1. Harang
   2. Ortiz
   3. Ramirez
   4. Claussen
   5. Milton

6. Paul Wilson should pitch long-relief until he comes around. I think he's injured. If he is, he should be shelved.
7. Ryan Wagner should close, with Mercker in set up. Graves should be relegated to spot work.
8. I also recommend pruning the suck boys from the 40-man roster so we can start to work some of the young talent without having to worry about who is on the roster.

There. 8 simples changes that can be made today that will make the team better. Notice we aren't eating any contracts, and we're not cutting any starters. Just putting the right guys in the right places.

I've been having a hard time getting jazzed about this season and baseball in general.  I posted these thoughts onto my own blog, but I'd be curious if anyone else shares or understands these feelings.

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Maybe I'm dense (Maybe?!), but I'm trying to guess who the 25th guy might be.

I'm guessing we keep 12 pitchers...is that a safe assumption?  Let's say it is.

Now, for the other 13.

1.  LaRue
   
2.  Valentin
   
3.  Casey
   
4.  Jiminez
   
5.  Aurilia
   
6.  Lopez
   
7.  Randa
   
8.  Freel
   
9.  Dunn
   
10. Griffey
    
11. Kearns
    
12. Pena

There's hardly anyone else on the roster...I can't for the life of me figure out who it might be.  Any ideas/slaps to the side of the head?