SB Nation User Blog: outsidethesidelines

Michael Bowman Qualifies

outsidethesidelines — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:05:50 -0000

Some great news breaking late this morning, as several published reports are indicating that Michael Bowman has qualified academically, and that he has also been approved by the NCAA Clearinghouse. With his academics good to go, Bowman will arrive in Tuscaloosa shortly for the beginning of the second summer term.

This is huge news, no two ways about it. Our staff was very high on Bowman this past year, and we took a commitment from him despite his academic issues. Bowman is a very big, physical target, and once he arrives on campus he will probably be the closest thing we have to Julio Jones in terms of physical skill set and raw ability. This past year, both Rivals and Scout.com had Bowman as a four-star receiver, with Rivals having him as the #20 receiver in the country, and Scout.com having him as the #14.

With Bowman qualified, we have only two players left on the fence, and they are Darrington Sentimore and Eddie Lacy. Most seemingly feel pretty confident about Sentimore, and the Clearinghouse concerns still linger with Lacy. Either way, though, even if both fail to qualify, that will mean that 24 of the 27 signees in the 2009 class qualified academically, and as a whole that is a very good percentage.

The RBR Meat Market: June 30th

outsidethesidelines — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:42:10 -0000

With the commitment of safety Jarrick Williams this past Friday night, Alabama added its 16th commitment of the 2010 recruiting class. Despite the fact that the Tide is coming off back-to-back number one recruiting classes, nevertheless the 2010 class is off to a muct faster start than either the 2008 or 2009 class. Looking at the Scout.com commitment list, Williams marks the 16th commitment of the Tide's 2010 class, nine of which are rated four-stars or higher. By comparison, in 2009 we had only seven commitments at this point, with only two ranked as four-stars or higher. Likewise, in 2008, we had only ten commitments at this point, with only two ranked as four-stars or higher. Again, believe or not, this class is shaping up to be even better than the previous two.

Furthermore with Williams off the board, there are very few in-state prospects left on the board at this point. Of course things can change as the season develops, but as of right now there are only three in-state prospects remaining who currently sport firm offers to the Tide, and they are LaDarius Owens, C.J. Mosley, and Corey Grant.

LaDarius Owens continues to be a fairly heavy Auburn lean. Despite clearly being a pretty high priority for the Tide, Owens nevertheless grew up a big Auburn fan in a big Auburn family, and his uncle was the first African-American football player at Auburn. Alabama is recruiting him very hard, and Owens is clearly intrigued by the Tide -- by my count, he's made at least nine unofficial visits to Tuscaloosa, almost twice as many as he has taken to Auburn - - but Auburn nevertheless remains the leader here. For Alabama, the best case scenario for now is to just to push his decision back as far as possible, and attempt to slowly chip away at things. That is what happened two years ago with Jerrell Harris, and that will have to be the case with Owens as well.

C.J. Mosley remains as quiet as ever. He's clearly a talented prospect that the Tide very much wants, but it's just almost impossible to get a read on him. Most think he will sign with Alabama, but we'll have to wait and see. He does not look to make a decision until after the season.

Corey Grant, on the other hand, does look to be making a decision relatively soon. The speedster from Opelika is being recruited by the Tide to play slot wide receiver, and he's clearly a priority for us at the position. He says he still plans to make a decision before the season starts, but things could still change. Right now he claims his top three is Alabama, Florida, and Auburn, and that they are all even. That said, most think it's really an Alabama v. Florida battle, and it's hard to say where he is leaning right now. My gut instinct is that he may be a Florida lean based on the way he references the Gators -- and he would be a good fit there, where they plan to use him in a Percy Harvin-type role (though to be fair, every offensive recruit for the Gators says they will be used in a Percy Harvin-type role, so keep that in mind) -- but on the other hand there have been some rumblings on Florida sites that Grant will commit to Alabama in the near future. At this point, it's almost impossible to say one way or the other, and it looks to be a toss-up between Alabama and Florida.

One thing the 2010 class will certainly bring is a slew of prospects who will enroll early. As of right now, Craig Sanders, Austin Shepherd, Chad Lindsey, Philip Sims, and Jalston Fowler all look to enroll early. A few more Alabama commitments are also exploring the possibility of enrolling early as well, and a few of the remaining prospects on our board also hope to enroll early. It's hard to say exactly how many players will enroll early from the 2010 class, but I think it's safe to say at this point that we will have more early enrollments this year than we've ever had before at Alabama.

One sleeper in-state prospect may very well be Carlos Gray. Coming out of Pinson, Gray is a huge kid, standing at around 6'3 and over 300 pounds. He projects to be a defensive tackle prospect at the next level, and he has blown people away recently with his camp performances. After a camp in Knoxville, he earned an offer from Tennessee, and clearly the Alabama coaching staff is highly impressed with him after two standout camp performances. He is a very raw prospect, but we have been impressed with his ability, and it looks like if he has another standout camp performance in Tuscaloosa in mid-July, he may very well get a firm offer from the Tide. Based on his comments, it certainly seems like Gray is ours if we want him, and he's clearly a very talented individual who will end up at a top SEC program regardless. Keep your eye on him in the coming weeks.

Speaking of defensive tackle prospects, this past weekend Evan Hailes committed to Penn State. Hailes is the teammate of Alabama QB commitment Philip Sims, and he is a highly-touted prospect in his own right. Both Rivals and Scout.com have Hailes as a four-star prospect, and it was presumed that Alabama would get him if we wanted him. However, Hailes never picked up a firm offer from the Tide, and we wanted him to come back this summer at a camp before we made an ultimate decision on him. Hailes may camp in Tuscaloosa later regardless, but for now he committed to the Nittany Lions. It's hard to say why we didn't press for Hailes, honestly. My gut instinct is that we had some worries about his height and worried that he may not be able to fill out his frame any further, and that thus he wouldn't be an ideal candidate to play inside in the 3-4. One way or the other, we passed on Hailes, and it just goes to show you that you can be a damn good prospect willing to commit to Alabama and still not get an offer these days.

Keep your eye on Victor Beasley of Adairsville, Georgia in the coming days. Beasley is quite a physical specimen at 6'5 and 217 pounds, and he blew away the Tide coaches recently in a camp in Tuscaloosa, in large part due to him running a 4.51 in the 40. The staff immediately offered him, and Beasley admittedly wanted to commit then, but his father wanted him to wait a bit longer, which is what he did. Our staff loves him as a linebacker prospect, and it seems like he should be announcing in the near future, and clearly the Tide is the team to beat for this young man. Beasley's father, Vic Beasley, played defensive back for Auburn in the mid-1980's, and though he sports an offer from the Tigers, the orange and blue are not seriously in play here. In fact, Beasley explicitly bashed the Big Cat Weekend in a recent interview when discussing his trip to Alabama, saying that the Tide was only focused on winning national championships, and not "bells, whistles and Big Cat weekends" like Auburn. Bottom line, if we want him then he is ours, and it certainly seems like we want this young man pretty bad.

DeMarco Cobbs of Tulsa, Oklahoma is a name Alabama fans should get familiar with. Cobbs is one of the top players in the country who looks to play wide receiver on the next level -- though he could play several other positions with his athleticism -- and he could go to any school in the country. A few hours after leaving the big USC camp this past weekend, he says he now favors them slightly, but he had indicated prior to then that the Tide might have a slight lead. At the very least, we seem to be one of the teams who will be in it 'til the end for Cobbs' services, and it helps that Oklahoma has struggled somewhat to get players out of Tulsa, so in-state pressures are not likely to be a major issue here. The biggest thing we have going for us here is that Cobbs admittedly has a very close relationship with Nick Saban.

Markeith Ambles, on the other hand, continues to be an enigma. The talented wide receiver out of Georgia is clearly of the elite variety, but he is also clearly being plagued by some off-field issues. No one knows specifically what they are yet, but whatever it is has resulted in his USC offer being pulled, as well as his invitation to the Under-Armour All-American game. He says he favors Florida, but some say Florida will not take his commitment, and many think academics are a major issue with him. Who even knows how he stands on Alabama's board at this point?

It's no secret that Alabama is going to load up on cornerback prospects this year, and with DeMarcus Miliner and Deion Belue already on board, John Fulton is clearly the next big target. Fulton is a highly-recruited four-star cornerback out of South Carolina, and Alabama currently holds a big lead for him. Georgia has now passed Florida for second for his services, but either way Alabama nevertheless has a big lead. Many were hoping that he would commit soon, but apparently he is going to wait a while now, and unfortunately things could change by then. Fulton now says he will announce in December (and it cannot go further than that, as he plans to enroll early).The good news, though, is that the Tide continues to recruit him very hard, and neither South Carolina or Clemson seem to be a major player here, so there should not be any great in-state pressures persuading him to stay at home.

Speaking of Belue, lost in the hoopla regarding his commitment is the uncertainty that it creates for Garry Peters of Conyers, Georgia. Most thought the four-star athlete Peters was third on Alabama's board at cornerback, but with the commitment of Belue the water has been muddied a bit for him. With Fulton still a top priority, and Milliner and Belue already on board, Peters is now at most the fourth cornerback on our board, and unless we are going to take four cornerbacks in this class, he may be out of luck. The good news for Peters is that we probably will take a fourth cornerback, but at the very least it does make him pretty borderline right now. Peters admits that Alabama is the huge leader for his services, and he is clearly ours if we want him, but I don't think it's necessarily a given that he has a firm offer now with Belue on board.

Brian Vogler, the monster tight end out of Columbus, Georgia, has narrowed his list of schools down to Alabama and Oklahoma. Coming out of Auburn's backyard, I expected the Tigers to be a big player for his services, but it just hasn't came to fruition. Most think Vogler will commit to the Tide in the coming weeks, but he still wants to have an overnight stay in Tuscaloosa before he makes a final decision. One way or the other, he looks to decide before the season starts.

The sixteen commitments thus far in the 2010 class do not count either Devonta Bolton or Brandon Lewis, both pretty highly-touted signees in the 2008 class who went to junior college after failing to qualify academically. There seems to be no question that both want to re-sign with the Tide, but by the same token we have heard nothing definitive to date to indicate that the Tide is necessarily willing to re-sign those two prospects. At this point, I think the safest thing to say is that if these two can graduate early and enroll late this December, we will probably re-sign them, but if not we will probably pass them up. Hopefully both will redshirt this year and, if they do report to UA, have three years of eligibility remaining.

Finally, we'll close out the first edition of the Meat Market with a few quick hitters:

Scout.com has rated Alabama punter commitment Jay Williams as a three-star and the #5 punter in the country. Likewise, kicker commitment Cade Foster has been rated by them as a four-star and the #3 kicker in the country. Furthermore, Deion Belue was recently rated a two-star by Scout.com... expect his stock to rise in the coming months as he shows out at more camps. Damien Robinson has both Ole Miss and MSU fans alike convinced that he is going out of state, and many think it's an Alabama v. LSU battle (and I still say he will end up at 'Bama). South Carolina guard prospect Eric Mack is now widely expected to commit to the Gamecocks. North Carolina athlete Keenan Allen still has Alabama as a slight leader over Clemson, but we are going to have to keep fighting like hell for this one. Keep your eye on DeAndrew White out of Texas as a wide receiver prospect. DB Jakar Hamilton is down to Alabama and Georgia, but most think he'll end up with the Dawgs. Despite lots of Internet rumblings the past couple of weeks, we still have no word on the academic status of Michael Bowman. Finally, click here for the latest highlights from 2011 commitment Marvin Shinn.

CPF [Phil Fulmer] has made a career on two men: Mike Dubose and Mike Shula. His 7-1 record vs....

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:38:11 -0000

CPF [Phil Fulmer] has made a career on two men: Mike Dubose and Mike Shula.

His 7-1 record vs. these 2 bafoons is the only thing he can hang his hat on, considering Meyer, SOS, and Richt, and Tubby all own him.

What do you expect him to do now, if Saban does indeed get on that plane today? I will go ahead and say what everyone is already thinking.

For the record, Bama under Saban will own UT for the next 4 or 5 years, along with the others mentioned, and will effectively end the career of CPF. If he retired today, his legacy would be 98 and owning Bama. 5 years from now, it will not be as pretty.

This is a post from a Tennessee message board on January 2nd, 2007 that has resurfaced and has been making the rounds lately. Who says there aren't a few smart UT fans?

RBR Recruiting Updates

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 18:15:57 -0000

I hate to call this one before the the voting is done, but considering that the latest poll up has about 95% of people saying that we should include weekly recruiting updates here at RBR, I think it's safe enough to say how this one will end. So, anyway, if you want recruiting updates, you got 'em. I follow recruiting pretty closely anyway, so it's not really a big issue for me to get them posted.

However, coming up with a title is tough and a total pain, plain and simple. Any ideas on what to call the piece? Also, any particular day you want it to run on?

Friday night, Alabama received its 16th commitment for the 2010 season. That doesn't count any...

outsidethesidelines — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:52:37 -0000

Friday night, Alabama received its 16th commitment for the 2010 season. That doesn't count any possible players from the 2009 class who might have to be re-signed for academic reasons. It doesn't count two commitments from, quite possibly, the top two 2011 prospects in Alabama. It does include just about every viable candidate to be the No. 1 in-state prospect.

Cecil Hurt: Crimson Tide sans suspense out of recruiting

Jarrick Williams Commits to Alabama

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 04:51:02 -0000

SOUNDTRACK WARNING

As shoelesshobo linked in the fanposts, Jarrick Williams has just committed to Alabama. Williams is a 6'2 and 210 pound safety prospect out of Eight Mile, Alabama, and he is widely considered one of the top safety prospects in the country. Both Scout.com and Rivals have him as an upper-end four-star prospect, and he had offers from effectively every major program in the country.

Williams' commitment comes as no major surprise. Many have speculated for some period of time now that Williams may have been a silent commitment, but even if that is not the case he has long been expected to end up in Tuscaloosa. It was always more of a question of when, not if. Nevertheless, regardless of the lack of surprise, Williams' commitment is a very big one for the Tide. He is clearly one of the top players in the country, one of the top five players in the state, a native of a key recruiting area for Alabama, and a top-end player at a need position for the Tide.

At this point, in-state recruiting is almost over for the Tide. With Williams on board, only three legitimate in-state prospects remain on the board, and they are Ladarius Owens, C.J. Mosley, and Corey Grant. Owens will likely end up at Auburn, Mosley at Alabama, and in many ways Grant is the most open of all (though recent talk on Florida message boards has him committing to Alabama in the soon, so take it for what it's worth). Bottom line, with Williams on board, it essentially insures that the Tide has almost entirely locked up the state of Alabama for the third year in a row.

Williams becomes the 16th commitment of the 2009 recruiting class.

SOUNDTRACK WARNING

Incoming Freshmen Face Difficult Road To Early Playing Time

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 14:31:46 -0000

For the second year in a row this past February, Alabama signed a star-studded recruiting class that many thought to be the top recruiting class in the country. And just as was the case last summer, many are expecting several of these incoming freshmen to step onto the field this Autumn and have a major impact. Nevertheless, despite the expectations of some, the incoming freshmen will face a very difficult road in their attempt to secure early playing time.

No one needing to be convinced of that contention should have to look any further than this past year with the 2008 recruiting class. If you recall, it was widely expected by nearly everyone that the incoming freshmen then would immediately snag multiple starting jobs, and many projections even had the Tide starting as many as 10 true freshmen.

Just remember a few of the general thoughts this time last year: Julio Jones was going to take over at wide receiver immediately, and Star Jackson was going to make a serious run at John Parker Wilson for the starting quarterback job. Tyler Love was a lock to start at right tackle, and the "Uno" package featuring ultra-athletic Burton Scott was going to make everyone in the SEC take notice. Alonzo Lawrence was going to step in immediately and take one of the starting cornerback jobs, and Mark Barron was going to make quick work of Justin Woodall for the strong safety starting job. Courtney Upshaw was going to take the Jack linebacker position almost immediately, the same goes for Jerrell Harris at strongside linebacker, and there would be several other opportunities for true freshmen to see playing time.

Now how many of those predictions actually came to fruition?

Julio Jones indeed did take over at wide receiver immediately, and even as a true freshman was arguably the best pure wide receiver Alabama has ever had, but aside from his many accomplishments it was a swing and a miss on just about all of the other predictions in the extent of contributions from the incoming freshmen. Star Jackson ultimately redshirted, never seriously contended for the starting job at quarterback, and in fact was probably fourth on the depth chart throughout the year. Tyler Love suffered a stress fracture during summer workouts, and in any event he needed to add weight before reaching his full potential. Drew Davis took over the starting job at right tackle, and did quite well, while Love redshirted. The "Uno" package left Tuscaloosa with Major Applewhite, and Burton Scott had all of two catches last season, and has since been moved to cornerback. Alonzo Lawrence struggled from the beginning and ended up getting a redshirt, while Mark Barron never seriously pushed Justin Woodall for the starting job at strong safety. Both Jerrell Harris and Courtney Upshaw were impressive on special teams (as was Barron), but neither seriously pushed either Cory Reamer or Brandon Fanney for the starting positions at strongside linebacker and Jack linebacker, respectively. All told, while several of the highly-touted freshmen did provide quality depth and valuable production in spot play, only two true freshmen actually started.

What the previous should be is a tale of caution for those expecting the incoming recruiting class in 2009 to suddenly take the entire team by storm upon their arrival. It was not that the 2008 recruiting class was overly hyped and did not live up to expectations. Much to the contrary, actually, as that class looks to be as good as it was billed. The problem, though, is more fundamental. Regardless of the quality of any incoming recruiting class, the road to early playing time is simply very difficult as long as the returning players on the roster are at least somewhat respectable SEC-level players. The returning players just have so many advantages in their favor -- better mental grasp of the schemes, better physical conditioning levels thanks to years in a collegiate S&C program, more game experience, a heightened understanding of what you need to do in order to properly prepare yourself, and in many cases simply more urgency because their college careers are coming to an end and they want to go out with a bang -- that generally only the absolute best of the best, even with a highly-touted class, can legitimately contend for a starting job.

With those reasons for reservation in mind, no one should reasonably expect the 2009 recruiting class to fair any better than its 2008 counterpart. If anything, the 2009 class is going to face an even more difficult road because there is a lot more quality depth throughout the roster now than there was a year ago.

Looking specifically at the signees, it is hard to find many that have the potential to come in and start immediately. You can rest assured that Trent Richardson, if healthy, should have a big impact -- both because of his unbelievable physical conditioning and natural talent, mixed with the uncertainty at tailback with Roy Upchurch and his injury history -- but aside from Richardson, it's hard to find many definites. Many point to D.J. Fluker, but with James Carpenter having the left tackle job locked up (the only way Fluker gets that is if he absolutely blows everyone out of the water this Fall) Fluker's will probably have to win the starting job at right guard in order to see significant amounts of playing time as a true freshman. Likewise, even Dre Kirkpatrick is no cinch in the defensive secondary. Despite the criticisms after the Florida and Utah games, Alabama actually had the best pass defense in the conference last year (despite yet another anemic pass rush), and every single cornerback on the 2008 roster returns for 2009. Furthermore, Kirkpatrick's delayed arrival in Tuscaloosa will only make things that much more difficult. Again, even for someone like Kirkpatrick, early meaningful playing time is far from certain.

Moving on, some people think one of the wide receiver recruits could start early opposite Julio, but again that will be very difficult. Even if Michael Bowman qualifies and Kendall Kelly is fully recovered from hip surgery by the start of Fall camp (neither a given), and even notwithstanding Julio Jones himself, Mike McCoy will play a lot simply because he is a great run blocker and Saban loves his effort, while Earl Alexander's slow but consistent improvement upon his vast physical abilities will also earn him a good deal of playing time. Marquis Maze looked to be a true breakout player this Spring, and of course despite all of the aforementioned players, any true freshman looking for playing time at wide receiver will have to go through the likes of Chris Jackson, Darius Hanks, Brandon Gibson, and others. Likewise, the situation looks to be just as difficult as linebacker, even though the Tide signed a particularly stellar class at that position. Even with recruits like Nico Johnson and Tana Patrick, the quality of the returning players will likely dictate that they likely end up as situational players as true freshmen. Perhaps their only opportunity for a starting job is the possibly vacated Will position if Dont'a Hightower is moved to Jack linebacker full-time, and even then they will have to go through Chris Jordan, a highly-touted recruit in his own right from the 2008 class.

The point of the matter is that regardless of how good the incoming class may be, expectations regarding their initial contributions ought to be conservative. Earning large amounts of playing time as a true freshman is inherently a very difficult thing to do, and in our case is made only more difficult because we return a roster with very few holes. As was the case last year, the 2009 recruiting class may initially yield a starter or two, but the overwhelming majority of the class (barring a bad string of injury luck) is likely to either redshirt, or contribute only in certain situations as back-up players and on special teams. No one should be overly worried about this. Both the 2008 and 2009 recruiting classes look to be of the elite variety, but their time will really come from 2010-2013. For now, perhaps it is best to remember that no matter how good true freshmen are, they are still true freshmen.

The Pass Happy SEC Reconsidered

outsidethesidelines — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 19:21:59 -0000

We all know that the SEC is a run-heavy conference, right? To be sure, we have reached the point to where offensive "balance," loosely defined, is considered a must, but clearly the general thinking among many talking heads and most fans is that any offensive design needs to be tilted towards running the football. The consensus among talking heads and casual fans alike, for whatever reason, focuses on how teams are striving to achieve a 60/40 run/pass split. I can personally sure you that will hear Gary Danielson cite that every single week this Fall, for example. But is all of that stuff really true, and does the generally accepted notion of the 60/40 run/pass split realistically describe modern day SEC football?

I asked those very same questions last year, and after a bit of research I ultimately came to the conclusion that none of those generally accepted notions contain any real truth. I frankly have no clue where the notion of a supposedly ideal 60/40 run/pass split came from, but one way or the other it is not embodied in the raw data. Not a single team in the SEC was as conservative as the 60/40 run/pass split -- Auburn ran the ball more than any other team in the conference, about 58% of the time -- and only the War Eagles and Georgia were even remotely close. Furthermore, despite all of the notions about the SEC being a run-heavy conference, the exact opposite was true. In fact, in 2007, the SEC saw more passes than runs, and eight teams in the league were effectively throwing the football 50% of the time or higher. Despite popular contention to the contrary, the SEC was in fact a pass happy conference.

I ran those numbers again recently for the 2008 season, using the same methodology, and the ultimate conclusions were the same, if not to an even greater degree. The following are the run / pass ratios for the SEC teams in the 2008 season:

As you can see, the SEC was a pass happy conference yet again in 2008, as expected. Only three teams effectively ran the ball more than 50% of the time, and the conference as a whole once again saw more passing attempts than rushing attempts. In fact, far from the ideal 60/40 run/pass split, as a whole SEC teams threw the ball roughly 52% of the time, and ran the ball only about 48% of the time.

Digging deeper, the conclusions become even more definitive. For example:

Tennessee ran the football more than any other team in the conference besides Alabama, but the numbers are a bit misleading. In their first six conference games, Tennessee threw the football roughly 55% of the time, and ran it only 45% of the time. Those numbers, however, completely flipped with the results of the final two games against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, when an ousted Phil Fulmer, tired of watching his quarterbacks throw games away, ran the ball 104 times against only 17 passing attempts. Those two outlier games turned UT into a run-heavy offense on the whole, but the point remains that they were predominately a passing team throughout the majority of the season.
Florida's spread option scheme heavily utilizes the quarterback as a rushing threat. Furthermore, Florida spent most of the season annihilating opponents to the point of where the game would be effectively over by halftime, and should have theoretically been spending the rest of the game running out the clock. Nevertheless, despite all of that, Florida still threw the football over 47% of the time.
Auburn had terrible quarterback play all season long, and Tony Franklin was fired mid-way through the season. Furthermore, they played in close games all year long (sans the Iron Bowl), but nevertheless still ended up throwing the football almost 54% of the time.
LSU likewise had terrible quarterback play, with Jarrett Lee tossing pick sixes left and right, and with a true freshman leading the way the past two games of the season. Furthermore, they also had one of the strongest running games in the SEC, led by Charles Scott and a stout offensive line. Even so, the Bayou Bengals still threw the football right around 50% of the time.

The only true run-heavy team in the conference was Alabama, where the Tide ran the football almost 65% of the time. From the outset, this answers any lingering questions about whether or not such a run-heavy team can still win big; clearly they can, and it should come as no surprise. There is no surer way of victory than to be able to consistently and repeatedly line up and run the football straight down your opponent's throat. Of course, though, having all of the pieces in place in order to be able to do that consistently is a very difficult thing to do, and the 2008 Crimson Tide was very much a rarity in that it had all of those pieces in place. Also, the run / pass numbers for the Tide are skewed a bit because we spent most of the season with huge leads at which point we were just trying to run out the clock for the remainder of the game. Without having done the specific research just yet, I imagine our run / pass splits were nowhere near this extreme in situations where the game was still very much in contention. Furthermore, moving forward, with Nick Saban having lined up three highly-touted quarterback recruits, more than ten wide receivers rated four-stars and higher, and several elite tackle prospects, the Tide will air it out much more often in the coming years. Even for Alabama, the extreme run-heavy levels of 2008 will be an anomaly.

Once again, on the whole, the conclusions seem quite clear. Talking heads may go on and on about how the SEC is a run-heavy conference, but that is simply not the case. That may have been true many years ago, but the modern day SEC is simply a pass happy league.

ed- As some of you may have noticed, I did not include Ole Miss in this analysis, just as I did not include Arkansas last year. The reasoning in both cases was their widespread usage of the Wild Hog / Rebel, and with both teams using that so heavily, it made them effectively impossible to fit into this type of analysis. With tailbacks and wide receivers lining up at quarterback and occasionally throwing the football, etc. it’s just impossible to get a good grasp on what was actually going on without specifically breaking down the game film.

I will say, though, even if you apply this exact same methodology to Ole Miss’ 2008 season, they would have been one of the more run-heavy teams in the conference, but nothing overly special. They were 55% run and 45% pass, and the difference is negligible to the point that the overall conference run / pass splits only drops a few tenths of a percentage point as a whole.

Recruiting had become simple for the University of Miami football staff. While counterparts were...

outsidethesidelines — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 21:22:35 -0000

Recruiting had become simple for the University of Miami football staff.

While counterparts were scouring the country for the next All-American, the Hurricanes' coaches likely were parked in front of a computer with a pad and pen. They surfed Internet recruiting sites in search of talent, almost forgetting their own evaluation in the process.

In an embarrassing piece today in the Orlando-Sentinel, it turns out that under Larry Coker, Miami was essentially recruiting based off star ranking alone, all the while looking at very little, if any, actual game film on prospects. In other words... "Who do we recruit?" "Well, go get the Rivals 100 list and the Florida 75 and I'll tell you."

All in all, it's interesting stuff, and given that player evaluation was being outsourced to people largely unqualified to do just that, it's no real surprise that Miami had so many busts and underachievers the past few years. And it shows you that despite some contentions to the contrary, star ratings do matter, and at times they matter in ways in which they never should.

Cornerback Deion Belue Commits

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 21:51:31 -0000

With the third commitment of the day, Deion Belue has committed to Alabama. Belue is a 6'0 and 175 pound cornerback prospect out of Deshler, and he has flown under the radar a bit to this point. Academics have apparently been the main reason why Belue has been slow-played a bit thus far, and coming into the past few weeks his offer list only included the likes of Auburn, Southern Miss, and Troy. However, he has done extremely well on the camp circuit as of late, and recently received rave reviews at an Alabama camp. Nick Saban and company decided to offer him then, and now Belue has decided to join the Tide.

This one is a bit of an interesting pick-up. Judging by what he has done in camps recently, there is no doubt that Belue is a very good athlete. In fact, after hearing so many rave reviews over his camp performances, both Scout.com and Rivals showed up this past weekend for a 7-on-7 tournament in Huntsville that Belue was participating in just to get a look at the young man. Furthermore, he's not just a combine warrior, he has the on-field production to boot. Last year at Deshler he made All-State in 4A, had 70 tackles, four interceptions (two returned for touchdown), two kick returns for touchdowns, a punt return for a touchdown, and on offense 47 catches as a wide receiver for 800 yards with five more touchdowns. I do not think there is really much doubting that the kid has some very high-end athletic ability.

On the other hand, academics have to be the major concern here. Fortunately, though, Saban and company have had a great track record the past two years with getting kids in academic risk to commit early, come up with a solid plan for gettin themselves eligible, and then finding kids with the dedication, commitment, and desire to go through with it. Furthermore, with Belue still having the rest of summer and his entire senior season ahead of him, he has plenty of time to get his academics in order. If this young man turns out to be an academic casualty then it is certainly a disappointment, but by the same token there is no evidence to indicate he is in that bad of academic shape -- we've had kids in much worse shape make it the past couple of years, despite getting later starts -- and if he can get things done in the classroom, we have clearly found ourselves another great prospect. It's earily, of course, but my guess is that he will be good to go come this time next year.

At any rate, one of the biggest needs in the 2010 class looked to be at cornerback, and we are certainly doing a nice job of filling that need to date. DeMarcus Milliner is a five-star prospect and the #1 cornerback in the country, and now we've added another great athlete with Belue. Furthermore, Garry Peters -- a Rivals four-star athlete in his own right -- is ours if we want him, and the consensus opinion is that we have a pretty big lead for John Fulton, a highly-rated four-star corner out of South Carolina who looks to have a great shot at getting a fifth star in his own right. Bottom line, we do not have many needs in this class, but we are doing a fine job of addressing the few concerns that we do have.

Belue becomes the 15th commitment of the 2010 recruiting class.