He crossed a line last night from which there is no going back. During the second inning of the Phillies/Nationals game McCarthy manned the television broadcast, as per usual.  When Elijah Dukes launched a home run into Ashburn Alley, McCarthy reacted as though it were the playoffs and and he was part of the Nationals' broadcast.  His voice went up, he used his lame 'gone!' catchphrase, and essentially acted the anti-homer.  Hell, he almost verbally orgasmed over Ryan Zimmerman's upper-deck shot in the fifth inning.

Alas, none of that was out of step with the rest of his calls over the early season.  He's been anything but a fan, and his history as a bonafide Mets fan bares that out.  Still, one could almost stand him if he didn't trample over something sacred to Phillies fans...

...Then he decided to do just that.  Back to that second inning call: McCarthy, still marveling at the strength of one Elijah Dukes, muttered a line so insane it boggled the mind of many a Phillies fans.  The line?  Let me quote it verbatim:

"That was Mike Piazza territory!"

Mike Piazza territory (tm). Seriously.  Seriously?  SERIOUSLY?!  To call Ashburn Alley, named after one Richie 'Whitey' Ashburn, MIKE PIAZZA TERRITORY is like a dagger straight to the heart. It's hardly worth mentioning Piazza barely played at Citizens' Bank Park, nailling just two homers as a visiting New York Met.

Oh, a Met.  Mike Piazza was a Met. Tom McCarthy is a Mets fan.  It goes as far as that.  He could've certainly called it 'Ryan Howard territory' and I wouldn't have minded.  But to go to Mike Piazza, that's a low blow.  Either it's prepared material, which is simply an egregious misstep, or it was something off the top of his head, which is that much worse since the first comparison he comes up with is to a former Met icon.

It's time Phillies front office.  Tom McCarthy must be delivered.  His time in the sun has set, and someone with a little more fire and passion in their loins for the Phillies franchise must step forward.  Scott Franzke comes to mind.  Formerly thought of as mercenary filler for the radio, Franzke's become the de facto #1 announcer since the passing of the legendary Harry Kalas.  His chemistry with Larry Andersen is undeniable, and his sincere joy at watching the Phillies comes through without becoming obnoxious.  He's taken to this team, and many fans have taken to him.  It's time to drop the de facto part of #1 announcer.

This is not an idle request.  Please contact spalmer@phillies.com if you are as upset as this as I.  Some may see this as an overreaction, and it may very well be one; I don't care.  This was the last straw.

also posted at huge tiny mistake

Also posted at HTM

When Pedro Feliz was signed to a 2 year, 8.5 million dollar deal in the off-season I had my reservations about the whole thing. Basically, I looked at these things called 'facts' and wondered why the Phillies should be starting a guy with a ludicrously low on-base percentage (OBP). Here were my thoughts on the signing:

So what do I think? I think he’ll be a slight upgrade over Nunez/Dobbs/Helms, but he’s no great shakes. He’s a below-average hitter, as his career 84 OPS+ shows(100 is average). He’s a terrific defensive third baseman, but does that make up for his horrible patience at the plate? Somewhat, but that’s only because of the trash that was thrown out at third base the past couple seasons. Feliz is not a big upgrade, he’s a VERY small upgrade…VERY small. It seems like a waste of money, to be honest. We could’ve spent no money and gotten production that was only a little worse. Considering I feel a large part of offense is getting on base, his horrendous .288 career OBP is worrisome. His career EQA (basically an offensive metric which attempts to put everything together independent of park and league effects) is .244. .260 is league average, FWIW. Helms’ career EQA is .263.

Well, it looks like I've been largely vindicated. Feliz is posting career lows in damn near every category except one...he actually has 7 walks. However, that may be due to a combination of his spot in the order and the hitting philosophy of the Phillies ballplayers and hitting coach rubbing off on him somewhat. Problem is, when he tries to swing that bat he just can't get it to fall to a spot without a defender there ready to scoop it up. He went 0-3 last night against the San Diego Padres to drop his average to a putrid .209, while his OBP dropped to .265 and his slugging percentage fell to .363. That adds up to a 628 OPS, which is a little handy-dandy indicator showing just how horrible he's been at the plate. To put that in perspective, Wes Helms, the man the Phillies basically told to not come back this season because of how much he struggled, amassed a 665 OPS in 2007 in 280 at bats. Their OPS+ is nearly identical, with Feliz at 67 in 2008 (with 100 being league average) and Helms at 68 in 2007.

The above means I was wrong in at least one respect. I stated Feliz would be an ever so slight upgrade at third base. He's actually provided no discernible upgrade in offensive production, and while his defense is better than Helms', that does little to cover up the massive problem at third.

But we have a solution! The Phillies have a potential fix for third base and it wouldn't cost them a dime. Oh, they might have a little egg on their faces, but they'll get over it. They could pull Greg Dobbs from off the bench and give him some more regular playing time.

BUT HE'S A PINCH-HITTING SPECIALIST! one might say. Perhaps, but in 35 AB thus far he's amassed a 982 OPS. Last year he had a 780 OPS in 324 AB. They started to really lean on Dobbs last season as they phased out Helms, why not again?

BUT WE PAID FELIZ ALL THIS MONEY! Teams have dead money on teams all over the league. The goal is to win, not to try to validate irresponsible free agent signings. Dobbs was a cheap get. He's shown since 2006 in Seattle that he's a major-league hitter. He's nothing special at the hot corner in regards to defense, but the man can hit fairly well. Why not go back to his bat? A near 800 OPS would do wonders for this offense. He's been getting about 2 starts a week..why not flip-flop his at bats with Feliz? No harm can come from it if Dobbs starts to struggle because Feliz is already one of the worst hitters in the league right now. Only good can come from this move.

While the Phillies are a meritocracy in other positions, such as centerfielder, they are seemingly willfully ignoring the potential to easily upgrade third base. It's time to bench Pedro Feliz.

Remember during spring training when we all debated whether Pat Burrell is actually man or if he is, in fact, machine? Well, Pat is showing that he’s the best of both as he’s started off the 2008 season with a bang. The left fielder went and jacked his 6th homer of the season in a 10-2 trouncing of the Houston Astros yesterday. After finishing the 2007 season with such a terrific 2nd half, he hasn’t slowed down AT ALL. The man looks confident up there, is laying off junk as usual, and is bashing anything hit over the plate. Just check out his rankings in the National League thus far:

AVG: 373 (6th)
OBP: 484 (3rd)
SLG: 836 (1st)
OPS: 1.296 (1st)

HR: 6 (tied for 1st)
RBI: 17 (1st)
BB: 13 (tied for 3rd)

VORP: 11.2 (4th)
EQA: .392 (1st)

Ho hum. Not too shabby folks.
Keep it up Pat. We may just be crowning our 3rd MVP in a row…ok, I might be jumping the gun just a bit. Still, what a hot start.  And to the haters?  Remember when some of us said Pat wasn’t so bad, and was actually pretty good? Pat sez he's better than you.

                                 IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR
  PHILADELPHIA
 A Eaton (L,0-3)                4 2-3  11   7   7   2   1   1

Seriously? This guy is the Phillies 5th starter going into the season? Again? Please. Just no. Hell, go with 4 starters...for real.

It's a great idea. We have several arms in the bullpen that can go multiple innings and we have a disgustingly wretched 5th starter in Adam Eaton. The man hurts the team and is simply one of the worst pitchers in professional baseball, as I've written about before. Sure, he *could* be considered an innings-eater. If he was eating those innings with a 4.5 ERA that would be one thing. But a 6+ ERA? He's not eating innings; he's blowing them up.

Hell, I almost forgot the money quote from our boy Eaton, said after this past game:

"I maybe stayed hard too much with cutters and fastballs," said Eaton, who concluded the spring with a 7.41 ERA, allowing 14 runs over 17 innings. "You have to give them credit. They have a good lineup and they hit some pretty good pitches today."

No comment necessary.

There's only one reason that this guy is still around. Actually, make that 16 million reasons. Yes folks, Adam Eaton is due 8 million a year for the next two years. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the misery of two more years of Adam Eaton. I don't root for players to get hurt since that would be uncouth. However, I wouldn't exactly be crying into my pillow if Eaton suddenly went down with a season-ending injury. Paying him 8 million to do nothing is a much better option than paying him 8 million to pitch 30 games a year.

Also posted at Huge Tiny Mistake

Continue reading this post »

Also posted at Huge Tiny Mistake

"I think I've established myself as a big-leaguer," Eaton said. "I'm getting paid extremely handsomely, probably more than I'm worth. But everyone is not worth what they're getting paid. It's fun. If you don't like the competition, what are you doing here? Everyone should thrive on competition."

He said this after giving up a 3-run bomb in his first appearance of the spring.

Yes Adam, you aren't worth what you're paid. You were one of the bottom 5 starting pitchers in the league, and got this mark because the Phillies refused to sit you or send you to the bullpen. I understand a pro athlete has to think highly of themselves, but no one should be THIS delusional. A 6.29 ERA and 1.63 WHIP is really all that I need to counter any sort of argument that Eaton is a good pitcher.  I don't need to delve into higher stats, I don't really need to go over scouting or counter with anecdotal evidence.  Those numbers are really all you need.   Apparently Eaton needs more to convince himself he sucks.

Pinch-hitting from The Chris Wheeler 4 HOF Action Blog
Yes friends, our favorite announcer of all-time has decided to email us his thoughts on the recent re-acquisition by the Phillies of fellow play-by-play man Tom McCarthy. I'm just going to re-post it word for word, but with the actual blessing of said emailer, unlike some others that shall remain unnamed ( cough cough ):

Dear Chris Wheeler 4 HOF Action Blog:

Hey there guys. I was reluctant to email you about the recent news when I first read your website. Your 'blog', as the kids call it, looked great and had terrific subject matter, but I was unsure of whether the Phillies organization wanted me to let the cat out of the bag. But how important is it to connect with your fans? I'd say it's huge, like Safeco Field. Boy is that a joke! Anyway, you may have already heard that Tom McCarthy is coming back to the Phillies to help me out with the play-by-play. I've been working with Harry Kalas for years now, and while he's all class, we all know that he's been thinking about retiring because of some issues he's had of late. Let's just say he's been calling games like he's underwater! So the organization saw fit to give me something special to work with, namely the up-and-comer Tom.

Tom's a great kid. He's bubbly, goofy and just a beauty of a guy. Much like me, he respects the game's history and those who came before him and is a great baseball man. I'm going to enjoy showing him the ropes and teaching him the ins and outs of broadcasting. I hope one day he can become a lead announcer somewhere and be loved by the fanbase, sort of how I'm thought of in the city of Brotherly Love.

But Tom will be the first to tell you that he's a Mets fan though, bahaha. That's going to be interesting in those really weird games where Jose Reyass smokes a ball into the gap off a first-ball fastball set middle-in. How will Tom react? I guess we'll see how he scores it.
That's all for now guys. Wish me luck in my quest for the Hall of Fame honors in 2008. If Harry can get in, I sure as heck should too, bahahaha. Best Wishes, Wheels

Also posted at Huge Tiny Mistake

Your Philadelphia Phillies shortstop edged Colorado Rockie 353 votes to 336 in the closest vote in 16 years:

Enough so that even though Rollins' power numbers paled to runner-up Matt Holliday's, his home runs to third-place Prince Fielder's and his star power to fourth place David Wright's, 16 of the 32 voters cast ballots with his name in first place. Because Rollins had affixed his reputation to the success of his team, and that added enough value in voters' eyes to overcome any numerical differences.

Of course, it wasn't like Rollins was some slug getting by on reputation. His 139 runs and 88 extra-base hits set records for shortstops. Everyone made such a big deal of Curtis Granderson's 20-20-20-20 - doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases. Well, Rollins went 35-20-30-40 and set career highs in batting average at .296 and slugging percentage at .531. And he set a major league record with 716 at-bats.

Rollins, he of the pre-season proclamations, helped lead his team to the playoffs, same as Holliday.  He did it with both the stick and the glove.  Matt Holliday slugged his way to 2nd place with terrific overall numbers and insane numbers at home.  Rollins also benefited from cozy Citizens Bank Park. Hell, 1B Prince Fielder and 3B David Wright had great years as well...do what do the numbers (beyond the Triple Crown) say?

Click inside

OPS:
Rollins     .875
Holliday  1.012
Fielder    1.013
Wright    .963

VORP:
Rollins     66.1
Holliday   75
Fielder    69.1
Wright    81

EQA (adjusted for park and league):
Rollins     .290
Holliday  .318
Fielder    .323
Wright    .329

Runs Created:
Rollins      122
Holliday   125
Fielder     126
Wright     136

Win Shares
Rollins     28
Holliday  30
Fielder    28
Wright    34

Something surprising happened while checking these numbers out.  I found myself less and less enamored with Rollins' season.  Rollins' EQA also stood much lower than the rest of the pack.   Sure, he had good counting stats, and his team made the playoffs, but both of those had a lot to do with his teammates.  Being on the best offense in the NL certainly had a lot to do with getting to the plate so much.  Rollins DID set the all-time season at bat record with 716.  He also played great defense and was the 'spark plug' for said great offense.

But I'm not sure his great season at SS outshines the great season David Wright had at third base.  Wright led the league in Win Shares, VORP AND Runs Created, both stats that combined a lot of factors  Win Shares includes defense too.   He wasn't overally flashy, but he got things done.  He also played great in August and September, so you can't pin the Mets' collapse on him.   There's really no reason to select anyone else if you are looking at the same numbers I am.  David Wright was the NL's best player last season when you look at both the plate and the field.  Rollins was great, but Wright was even better.

Also posted at Huge Tiny Mistake

also posted at Huge Tiny Mistake
Sez Bob Ford:
 

All he has done is hold together a team that should be splintered and sinking. He has helped keep the Phillies in contention despite a season-long plague of injuries and slumps. The Phils didn't panic or give up or shrug at the unfairness of it all and take the easy way out. They have played every game hard, regardless of who was in the lineup and who wasn't. That may sound like a small compliment, but in professional sports it is not.

Manuel has done all this without a shred of personal support from the team's front office. He is operating on the final year of his contract, and general manager Pat Gillick has given no indication that he is even aware of his manager's role in the team's success. Of all the oversights committed by Gillick, this is the worst.

The man should get a new contract, and he should get it today. Call a news conference and do the right thing, Pat.

It is somewhat redundant to list what the Phillies have endured this season. Every day has been a new chapter, a new exercise in what-can-happen-next. They have used 12 starting pitchers and 25 pitchers overall.

Players have checked in and out of the disabled list as if it were just another road hotel on the schedule. Yoel Hernandez went on the DL last week almost before anyone knew he was back on the roster. He replaced Mike Zagurski, who also went on the DL before having time to unpack from the minors.

Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Jon Lieber, Freddy Garcia, Tom Gordon, Brett Myers, Adam Eaton, Ryan Madson and on and on. The roster of those who haven't been on the disabled list this year is much shorter than the one of those who have. That's not a good year.

He makes a good argument.  Actually, a great one.  This team's had so many injuries, so many setbacks, that they are bound to lose this season.  They have no business being in the playoffs, let alone being in the NL Wildcard hunt.  And yet they remain 3 back in the standings, despite losing so many key cogs on both sides of the fence.  No other team has lost as many pitchers, and no other team has had to dig so deep for starting pitching.  Hell, the only starting pitcher that has been in the rotation all season long has been Jamie Moyer, and he officially sucks now.  This job ain't easy, folks.

Charlie's had very little help from the front office, and yet barely shows signs of frustration to the public or the media.  The man is a professional, no matter what many fans may believe.  Yes, he had a tiff with Howard Eskin, but that's Howard Eskin.  I believe that a manager gets one free blowup a season, and he used his on a worthy target.

So lay off Charlie ladies and gents.  He has a very tough job, and he's doing alright at it.  Managers tend to be overrated anyway in my mind, and he seems very adept at managing the locker room VERY WELL.  Players like him, and it looks like they are playing for him.  They just don't have the pitching.

also posted at HTM
On-base + slugging percentage is a quick and dirty way to judge a player's offensive output. It doesn't rely on teammates getting on base ahead of a player, it stresses the importance of a walk, and it's becoming more and more popular with every season that goes by. Sure, it has its problems, such as weighing OBP and SLG equally, and ignoring other aspects of offense, but it's still a reasonable way to quickly judge players.

Now, after that dry introduction, let's take a look at the top 10 in the Majors since the All-Star break (July 13th on):

1. Pat Burrell 1.198
   
2. Miguel Cabrera 1.189
   
3. Jorge Posada 1.188
   
4. Robinson Cano 1.73
   
5. Jermaine Dye 1.135
   
6. Ryan Howard 1.114
   
7. Hanley Ramirez 1.108
   
8. Milton Bradley 1.104
   
9. Albert Pujols 1.071
   
10. Ryan Braun 1.062

It's certainly an interesting list. Pat Burrell tops the list, besting Miguel Cabrera because of Burrell's .517 OBP. That's Bonds territory there. The Bat's resurgence in past month and a half has helped to keep the Phillies offense running smoothly, even though they lost Chase Utley to a broken hand. His hitting simply cannot be denied.

There's a second Phillie on this list, one Ryan Howard. Recently he's started to come under fire by some Phils fans for not playing up to the level of what they believe he should be reaching...well these numbers kind of throw that out of the window eh? 10 homers in June, 10 homers in July, and 4 so far in August say his power is still there. He still has a good eye at the plate (77 walks, 395 OBP), and he's still a force up there. So why are there rumblings about his hitting? Strikeouts and batting average, the last two vestiges of horrible statistical analysis. People who look at ballplayers through batting average, homers, RBIs and strikeouts see Ryan Howard as excelling in two categories and struggling in two others. They don't look at VORP, EQA, or WARP, let alone even freaking OBP or OPS. So Ryan Howard is 'striking out too much' and `not hitting enough'. Well, only in the very biased eyes of the uninformed.

The rest of the list is an interesting mix of youngsters (Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez) and veterans (Jorge Posada, Jermaine Dye, Milton Bradley). Cano had a horrendous start to the 2007 campaign, with a 741 OPS pre-allstar. Braun has been the best hitting rookie BY FAR, and is the far and away leader for Rookie of the Year. And Hanley Ramirez? He's the best SS in the Major Leagues this season, and it's not freaking close. But he's not as exciting as Reyes! because he plays for the Marlins.

As for the veterans, Posada's terrific year has helped to keep the Yankees afloat, and with so many hitters clicking at once in that lineup, the Yankees are winning ballgame after ballgame by bludgeoning their opponents with bats. And if Phillies fans thought that Pat Burrell had a frustrating first-half to the 2007 season, take a look at Jermaine Dye's year. He saw his OPS dip to 673 on July 6th. The man couldn't hit and wasn't being all that patient up there. It looked like his career was over. Then he just flipped a switch and started scolding the ball. His horrible BABIP (which measures that average that balls fall into play for a batter) turned around. He has as many homers (12) in 107 AB as he did all of the first half (266 AB). After a terrific 2006, and a horrible half a season, it looks like he's back in the saddle and could have gotten himself a few extra dollars next season.

Milton Bradley also appears on the list and, even though he's seen his fair share of the pine due to various nagging injuries, he's been an integral cog in that San Diego Padres offense.  The Oakland As let him go for `chemistry' reasons, but he seems to be having no problem fitting in with the Padres organization.  His patience at the plate and his ability to hit the ball has been unmatched by most everyone in baseball, as evidenced by his place in the top 10.  It's only been 22 games with the Padres, but it's starting to look like a great fit.

Finally, I'd just like to mention that Miguel Cabrera is a sick, sick hitter. He flat out smokes the ball to all fields and hardly ever gets fooled...so what do people talk about? Him gaining some weight over the past two seasons. The weight might be a detriment on defense, but it's not affecting the MAIN reason that he's such a great ballplayer, so why make a big deal out of it? Cabrera knows he should probably lose a few lbs, and I'm sure that he'll come to spring training 2008 in good shape. Why is this worthy of a feature?

Also posted at HTM

 During yesterday's game against the San Diego Padres were all treated to multiple mentions of the size of Petco Park by our main man behind the mic Chris Wheeler. In the interest of fun and just a little bit of malice, I am going to run a guessing game. So fellow fans, how many times will Wheels mention the size of the ballpark? "This ballpark is huge' , `look at the size of this ballpark', `you don't hit many homers in this field', or some facsimile of this phrase. Also acceptable are patent-pending Wheels chuckles or guffaws at deep flyouts being caught on the warning track. However, if he does a guffaw then a phrase, that is still only one mention. Each mention must be on a different play or plate appearance.

The fan closest to the actual number, over or under, will win a HUGE (like Safeco) T-Shirt courtesy of yours truly (other fine Wheels T-Shirts are available at Chris Wheeler Glossary.com). Make sure to leave a real email address in the comments section of this post so I can contact you. And if this is a complete failure, well I'll just keep the freaking shirt!  Or email me it at pacino@backshegoes.com

    * Friday 10:05 pm
    * Saturday 10:05 pm
    * Sunday 4:05 pm

And don't forget to play BINGO!

also posted at HTM
I'm sure, in fact I'm damn near certain, that sports columns are currently being prepared for various local and national papers about the humiliating achievement that the Philadelphia Phillies baseball club reached this past evening. Their 10-2 loss to the Saint Louis Cardinals was the 10,000th in their existence. The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

Look, the Philadelphia Phillies have been around since 1883. They sucked for a lot of years, and lost a lot of games. They've won 5 pennants and 1 World Series in 124 years. Their history is lacking hall-of-famers, lacking dyansty-like teams, and lacking wins compared to other teams that have been around for just as long.

And so what? What bearing does that have on anything today? How does any of the above affect today's fans or today's team? Fact: it doesn't. It just doesn't. It doesn't matter. There are facts and historical footnotes, and then there is history. Footnotes are numbers, are statistics, are dates. They mean little to today's world. Then there is history...things recorded in the past,a tapestry of the past and blueprint for the future. What happened in the 1900s and 1930s and 1960s and so on only serve as a lesson, nothing more. Teams need good players to win games and the owners must spend enough money and enough money wisely in order to field a team which the fans will accept.

What more can be `learned' besides the above? There is no other lesson. It has no bearing on today's team of 85, 88, 86, 86, 80 and 86 wins. The team has kept the footnotes in the past. No, they haven't made the playoffs much of late...but they made 3 World Series and 9 playoff appearances in the past 31 years. That's not great, but that's a marked improvement over the 2 playoff appearances (and 2 World Series losses) during the previous 93 years. Yesterday's footnotes are just that, footnotes. They have no bearing on today's team, or even the history that is currently being played out.

In conclusion, don't sweat the small stuff. Get beyond the number and press the reset button. This century has started off fairly well for this franchise...especially in comparison to how it began. Let the 10,000 number die a quiet death.

[Also posted at HTM]

King Felix is going to have to wait in line, it just ain't his turn.  King Cole Hamels has had his say, and he says that Felix Hernandez just isn't worthy of the `King' moniker...Cole's gonna take it for himself.

Continue reading this post »

Update [2007-6-9 20:1:3 by dajafi]: Garcia goes on the DL, and may be done in Philly. Manuel will announce Monday who will start in his stead against the White Sox on Wednesday.

also posted at HTM

The injury that also goes by the name of `he sucks so he must be hurt' has hit Freddy Garcia. Charlie Manuel apparently got the confession out of him after last night's 1 2/3 inning debacle:

"When I took him out of the game, I walked him downstairs and started talking to him," Manuel said. "I asked him [about his shoulder]. I told him if he's hurt, I don't want him pitching. I told him, `The way you're throwing, it definitely looks like to me that you're hurt.' He's a mentally tough guy and wants to pitch, but at the same time -- then he told me his shoulder was sore."

So it took a ridiculous outing that put the Phils out of the game early for Tough Guy Garcia(trademarked) to let someone know that he was pitching hurt. That's just great. Now it's up to the team doctor to decide where we will go from here, and whether it deserves a trip to the DL.

In any event, it puts the Phils in a hard spot. Who fills Garcia's slot the next time around? Word is that Brett Myers could end up going back to the rotation, so there could be a silver lining to Garcia's injury. However, if that doesn't happen then who's it? I would guess that JA Happ may get a pinch-start or two if Myers would be unable to return to the rotation.  Happ has been up and down in AAA, but has pitched decently.  His WHIP is high at 1.48 but there's really no one else in a position to be brought up.  He's still getting strikeouts, which is an improvement over Zach Segovia( 67.2 IP, 20 Ks).  I guess they COULD make a doublejump and bring up Kyle Kendrick at AA, but that may be pushing it.

also posted at HTM
Chris Coste is sad:

Coste was optioned back to Triple A over the weekend. Yesterday he played his first game for the Lynx against the Buffalo Bisons.

"It's easily the lowest moment of my career. Easily," he said quietly, sitting in a room off the visitors' clubhouse after Ottawa lost, 5-3. Coste started at first base, batted cleanup and went 0-for-3 with two walks. "I'll tell you what, when I got sent down at the end of last year's spring training [after batting .463], it hurt. But I had never been in the big leagues. I hadn't proven anything. Didn't necessarily deserve anything.

"This year, without playing a game in the offseason, out. Frustrating. Disappointing. Heartbreaking. You name it.

"I want so badly not to be bitter and in time I guess it will wear off. But the thing that alarms me is that I'm 34. I mean, I may never get back. I may get back. I have no idea. But to say I'm still on the radar, that I might get back is a minuscule consolation at this point. It feels like I was given a lottery ticket and someone stole it right out of my hands."

Poor Coste.  Seriously.  He hit well during his callup last season, proved himself to be a valuable asset to a Major League ballclub, and was unceremoniously booted from the 25 man roster because....?  He has his ideas:

"The signings of Rod Barajas and Jayson Werth pretty much sealed my fate. There will be theories that it was because I hurt my hamstring and didn't get to play much in spring training. But, honestly, once those two guys were signed, I became totally obsolete.

"There was no need. I wasn't going to play third. I wasn't going to play first. So my only option was to catch. Well, they got Jayson Werth. Pat Gillick said on many occasions, with me sitting right next to him at different functions and the Fanfest in January that Werth can be the third catcher, no problem. So when I heard him say that with me sitting right next to him, that was writing on the wall."

What made that particularly tough to take is that so many pitchers - Jamie Moyer and Randy Wolf and Cory Lidle and Cole Hamels - had gone into manager Charlie Manuel's office to say how much they liked throwing to him.

"My whole career has been that way," he said. "I guess if I'm a GM, I'd want Rod Barajas. He's a very good catcher and a great teammate. But when they signed him that just proved right there they weren't confident in my catching.

Putting aside his comment about Rod Barajas being a good baseball player, he's completely right.  The writing was on the wall all offseason that the Phils weren't satisfied with just him and Carlos Ruiz behind the plate, and they were determined to fill that slot however they could.  Which is sad, considering Coste hit well and seemed to develop a rapport with several of the starting pitchers.

And is it just me or did I completely miss the company line that Jayson Werth could be a 3rd string catcher?  Was this one of the reasons we decided to go get him, because we could use him on those rare occasions where a 3rd string catcher was actually needed?  If this was a determining factor, then that's just crap and Chris Coste deserved better.

Now, do I think Coste would've put up a 320 average with decent power again?  Not really.  But should he have at least been given a chance to prove/disprove this?  Most certainly.  Gregg Dobbs has performed well thus far, but the rest of the bench has largelly sucked.  Are we to actually believe that Coste wouldn't have been a decent option over the likes of Abe Nunez or Michael Bourn or Rod Barajas?

However, Ruben Amaro is always there to give us a peek into how this franchise works:

"I think he did a very good job for us last year, but a couple things happened," Amaro said. "We acquired another catcher. And the makeup of our club gave us an excess in that area. He didn't necessarily do anything to lose the job. It was just the makeup of our club and the fact that he had options."

BUT WHY BOTHER SIGNING BARAJAS FOR MULTIPLE MILLIONS?!?!?!  It was a gross missallocation of resources.  Period.  You had a fairly able-bodied backup in Chris Coste and another guy in Carlos Ruiz that could blossom into a reliable starter.  Why get a hack like Barajas?

Coste deserved better, and so did the fans.  Sometimes baseball moves are done with little to no regard to on-the-field play.  Unfortunately that seems to occur way too much with this organization.

also posted at HTM

Bobby Abreu, a class act all the way, had this to say about his departure from Philadelphia:

"I have many memories [of Philadelphia], good memories," said Abreu, who was 0-for-3 in the Yankees' 2-0 victory over the Phillies, his first game against his former team since being traded last July 30 and first of the spring following a month-long oblique injury.

Abreu hit .300 or better six times in his 81/2 seasons with the Phillies, but he left feeling unloved because his old fans often criticized his game, everything from his outfield play to his desire to win.

But when asked about Phillies fans on Tuesday, Abreu blamed himself for letting them down at times.

"The fans are part of the game," he said. "I made a lot of big mistakes over there in the outfield. I screwed up a few times. They booed me because they went to a game to watch people do things right."

Well, I'm sure that's all nice and dandy.  People are typically harder on themselves than they should be, especially people who play a competitive sport for a living.   And these quotes might even satisfy a few fans (who will then say `yeah, but what good does that do us!!'), but who cares what they think?  You were not to blame Bobby.  Sure you weren't exactly fleet of foot out in right field, but right field defense doesn't matter all that much.  Even if you cost the team a few runs a year out there, you more than made up for it at the plate.  And that's a simple fact.  Your patience up there set the tone for the rest of the team, wore down pitchers, and gave Ryan Howard  men on base to knock in.  You were a great, underrated player here for so many years, and it's wrong to slightly knock yourself because of what some idiot fans wanted you to be.

So you weren't a great defensive player and you never hit 40 homers.  Just be who you are, and accept it: a great ballplayer who got on-base better than almost anyone at your position or in the league.  And now you're with a team that truly understands that getting on-base is key to scoring runs.  Let the haters hate, they'll find a reason in anything.  You just keep walking, keep doubling, keep working those counts.  

Seems our main rival has an ace up its sleeve with David Wright. Nestled in an interesting NY Times article about the inadequacy of OPS is this little nugget by David Wright:

Most stat-savvy baseball folks sense that on-base percentage is more valuable, perhaps drastically so, because it better recognizes the importance of not making outs. David Wright of the Mets agreed last week, saying: "You can always make things happen when you get on base. When I think of slugging percentage, I think of sitting back for the three-run homer, which might not happen."

Wow.  Imagine a ballplayer in Joe Morgan's time saying this.  Imagine Joe Morgan saying this!  While pretty obvious, Wright understands a simple aspect of the game: get on base.  Outs are outs, and there are precious few one can give up throughout a game.  Imagine if Wright was a Phillie?  I'd love him being on this team, but I'm sure some purists may despise this idea.  Sure, they don't like 3 run homers, but they LOVE moving runners over and sacrifices.  They are gritty.

We don't need baserunners, we need sacrificers.

As for OPS and GPA:

Only 16 and dreaming of a career in baseball number-crunching, Wang was so moved to investigate this issue that he examined the statistics for every team since 1960 -- via Excel, of course -- to see which weights applied to on-base and slugging percentages most closely correlated with each team's runs. He discovered that weighting on-base percentage 80 percent more than slugging percentage worked best, and he published a short article about it in "By the Numbers," a Society of American Baseball Research journal.

Wang figured out that OBP is much more important than slugging.  Getting on base is the most important thing a hitter can do, with hitting extra basehits being behind it(but not useless of course).

GPA, the new stat he devised, also highlighted some flaws with other stats(ex: batting average) still being used today:

Wang wasn't the first researcher to look into exactly how much more valuable on-base percentage may be. The Hardball Times, a statistics-oriented think tank out of the Baseball Prospectus mold, recently identified the same factor of 1.8 and started weighting O.P.S. accordingly. Better yet, one last simple step -- dividing by four -- put this new measure (called Gross Production Average) on the comfortably familiar scale of batting average, with figures generally ranging from .200 (horrible) to .265 (roughly average) to around .360 (superior). It's a language that most fans speak.

Applied to individual players, Travis Hafner of the Indians led the major leagues last year with a .362 G.P.A., a sliver ahead of Albert Pujols of the Cardinals. Just like batting average, 10 hitters wound up .325 or higher. But they truly represented the sport's most well-rounded batters, having weeded out walk-averse nonsluggers like the Pirates' Freddy Sanchez, who had a .288 G.P.A. despite winning the National League batting title at .344.
<

Duh.  Freddie Sanchez's singles and occasional doubles were no match for Hafner's patience and power.

Just thought I'd pass this along.

I wondered this as I read his most recent comment in the paper saying that

"I'm here to be successful.  That's my job."

Wait.  What the hell IS your freaking job Dallas?  What do you, you know, DO?  Besides crawling out of the ooze every couple of years to berate one of the better players on the team, I mean.

Why does anyone give this guy credit for anything, and why has he been paid by the Phillies for some years now?  Because he was handed a bunch of talent in 1980 and didn't [screw] it up enough to lose the World Series?

also posted at HTM

Also posted on The Chris Wheeler For Hall of Fame Action Blog

It is widely known now that Chase Utley just negotiated a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for 7 years, 85 million dollars. What is not widely know is just how this came about, and who was behind it. I'm here to break the news for everyone reading at home, and those in the media: Christopher Wheeler, broadcaster, funnyman, and general baseball expert, helped bring the Phillies and Utley together for this deal. Yes folks, Wheels himself got this contract going. Here's the story.

It was late December, Christmas time, and Chris was sitting at home by the fireplace in his mansion in suburban Philadephia when he recieved a call from Phillies President Dave Montgomery.

"Hey Chris, what's happening?"

"Oh not much Dave. Just sitting here thinking about all the children in the world in poverty, and what I, Chris Wheeler, can do to help. The rug and I were thinking that we could start a charity, but couldn't come up with a good name."

"That's great thinking Chris. Perhaps Wheeler's Dealers or something?! Who knows, who really cares Chris. I need you right now."

"Come on Dave, I already told you that I'm flattered but I don't go that way."

"That's not what I meant. But thanks again for being gentle with me. No, the reason I called you was because I need your advice about this upcoming arbitration stuff. I'm going to give the reins to Ruben on this thing, instead of Pat. But what I needed to know was if you could sway Chase to staying with the Phils for a hometown discount."

"Well...first thing is that it's great to hear you say you're using Ruben. I know he's definitely your first choice for GM once ol' Gillick retires, and it'll be a great one. Second thing is that I'll definitley talk to Utters. Thing is, I'm not going to sway him to the Phils."

"You're not?! But but but, we need you Chris!"

"No, I'm not. What I am willing to do is demand that he stays with the Phillies, and that he settles down and finds him a nice woman, like I did with Rug."

*Dave chuckles * "Oh Chris, you had me for a second! Oh you!"

So Wheels decided he'd help the Phils keep his favorite new player. Utters had really shown him something during 2006, especially when he came over to Chris' house to get some batting tips. Right after, he went on a 35 game hit streak, and his dedication and late night sessions with Wheels really paid off. Wheels himself told me that he had to help a guy like Utters, a guy who was a real ballplayer and just fun to watch.
==

It was January 1st and Chase had a raging headache from the night prior. No, it wasn't from drinking in the New Year; instead, the pain coincided with his choice to run 10 miles in the cold. This was the heart and drive he learned from his mentor Chris Wheeler. Chase's fiancee Heidi became a bit concerned when he told her of his late night run, but completely understood once she became aware of from the idea came. Chris had dropped by the home on New Year's Eve.

Chase and Chris were almost inseperable for the past several months, and would let Heidi along for the ride once in a while. She accepted this, because she knew in her heart and hearts that Chris would make her man a better ballplayer and a better person. She saw what he did with Scott Rolen, and then what happened once Scott had stopped listening to CW (what Chase called his buddy). She wasn't about to let Chase screw this up.

Chase knew the legend of Wheels, and was excited when he picked Chase as his chosen one. So Chase understood and agreed to the idea that he HAD to re-sign with the Philadelphia Phillies. It was just a matter of for how much and for how long.

"Chase, you have to sign with these guys. They're going to make a huge splash in the free agent market. I'm almost certain they will get a big-time catcher and center fielder. If you stay long-term, you'll be like the late 90s Yankees."

"I know, I know. But I want to make sure I'm not screwed in this. What if I get hurt and am never the same again? I want to make sure my contract is long enough so that I have enough guaranteed."

"No worries Chase, no worries. I'll make certain they give you enough. All you have to do is sign power of attorney over to me. There's no need for you to have an agent when you have me."

"True, true. You've never steered me wrong before. And you have much better stories about all the ballplayers you've met."
==

All of this led to the eventual 7 year deal. However, the entire ordeal would not go as smoothly as hoped. The malcontent in left field, Pat Burrell, got a hold of Chase only days before he was to sign his big contract.

For the first severals years of his career, Pat Burrell had been beloved in Philadelphia. He hit well between the lines and at the bars. He lived in the city. Fans bought his jersey. He even got his own big contract early in his career.

But then he suffered a horrible season in 2003. The cheers turned to indifference. The indifference turned to boos. He tried his best, but it was never good enough. He even bounced back nicely in 2005, hitting for power, and getting on base an impressive amount. He even suffered through injuries in 2006 but had another decent year. But it wasn't enough for the fans, or for managment. Down the stretch, he heard complaints about strike outs. He heard it about not hitting in the clutch, despite a great 2005 during the same times, and a good overall career in those instances. He heard it about defense. But he was hurt, Pat thought! What more could he do? What did these fans want out of him? Did he need to be Joe DiMaggio or Albert Pujols to get any love? What would be expected of Chase once he signed a big contract?

Pat tried to warn him.

"Chase, look at what these fans are doing to me. I've put up some pretty good numbers the past two years, both on and off the field, and they're crucifying me!"

"But Pat, they love me. I have dirt on my uniform. I LOOK like I'm going all-out when I run. And, best of all, I have CW by my side. Where CW goes, so go I."

"Oh that's crap! Chris Wheeler is an idiot with a rug on his head! He laughs like a hyena at his own jokes and thinks he knows everything about a sport he never played! Fuck him!"

"Wow, just wow Pat. I don't even know you anymore man. Insult me if you want, insult my fiancee, even my mother. But Wheels? How dare you sir. How dare you. I'll be your teammate, but I won't be your friend. This conversation is over."

And with that, Chase called up 'CW' and informed him that he would be signing with the Philadelphia Phillies for whatever money Chris and the organization decided on. And Chris Wheeler had now ensured the future of another superstar.

disclaimer: conversations may or may not have actually taken place

also posted at HTM
Let's begin.  Aaron Rowand and the  Phillies have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year 4.35 million dollar deal.  This deal essentially ensures that Rowand will be manning the outfield for the Phillies in 2007.  The Phils are picking off their arbitration-eligible players one by one:

Rowand is the second of the Phillies' five arbitration-eligible players to agree to a contract, joining Ryan Madson. Geoff Geary, Brett Myers and Chase Utley remain unsigned, and the Phillies could be far apart on the latter two.

Bada bing baby!  Avoiding arbitration with all of these guys is great! Too bad Ryan Madson sucks and may or may not get any better, and Rowand just ain't that great period.  But hey, the savings we are getting out of these signings!  OH BOY

To be serious, this signing indicates that Rowand will not be dealt.  This means we are left with an outfield consisting of LF Pat Burrell, CF Aaron Rowand, CF/RF Shane Victorino, CF Michael Bourn, CF/RF Chris Roberson, OF Jayson Werth, and possibly Karim Garcia.  Outside of Burrell, and a hopefully patient Shane Victorino, I don't see many winners in that bunch.  And by winners I mean producers.  Oh sure, they all have the `potential' to do well...don't most major leaguers?  That's why they're major leaguers.  But signing Rowand essentially guarantees that we are using two centerfielders to fill up two outfield spots.  And moving a centerfielder to the corner tends to decrease the value of said player (i.e. either Victorino or Rowand).  Any way we fill out the outfield will be a sharp decline from last season's mix of Burrell, Abreu, Dellucci, Victorino, and Rowand simply because we are moving everyone up two pegs on the food chain.

But what about Mr. Rowand?  The Phillies obviously thought he was worth at least SOMETHING, whether it be by signing him or by using him as trade bait.  They chose the former.  So what's he going to do next season?  To figure that out, we have to first go back to last season and see what he did:

    * 109 games (405 AB), 106 hits, 24 doubles, 3 triples, 12 homers
    * 47 RBI, 59 runs, 10 - 14 SB
    * .262 avg/321 OBP/425 SLG = 745 OPS
    * 18 BB, 76 K,  87 OPS+, 8.8 VORP, .256 EQA

His isolated power is decent for a centerfielder at .163, but that would be pretty bad if we have another centerfielder out there at the same time, especially if he's moved over to right.  And take out Rowand's great May (and I don't belive in this, just making a point), and Rowand would have a lot less power and a lot less value.  Frankly, he doesn't get on base near enough at all.  Plus, he hacks.  18 walks to 76K, even with double-digit hit by pitches, is putrid.  There's no reason to think that this ratio will get any better at all, judging by his career.

One could say that Rowand ran into the wall in centerfield and derailed his season.  He WAS hitting well at that time, although that IS a bit revisionist, what with his OPS being 794-799 around May 1st.  He got his OPS up to 871 by May 11th, and then he broke his nose.  Some say that he then wasn't seeing well...this has never been substantiated and is likely trying to explain away a horrible rest of the season.

One COULD say that Rowand will bounce back this season, but that ignores history.  Rather, that ignores his career history, one of ups (2004) and downs (2005).  His career line is a bland 279 avg/334 OBP/446 SLG.  Whatever Rowand will `bounce back' to depends greatly on what Rowand's ceiling is.  If one truly believes that Rowand will bounce back all the way to 2004, then this could be a worthwhile signing.  If, however, one believes that Rowand's ceiling is around his career average, then this supposed bounce won't be bouncing too high.  And he won't be very valuable.  And then we've loaded our outfield with a bunch of mediocre players.

Believe what you want, but I'll go with what I know.  And what I know is that Rowand doesn't get on base very well, hacks at the plate a bit too much, and has average power.  That isn't the forumla for a productive hitter.

also posted at Huge Tiny Mistake

In a move that defied both logic and track record, Pat Gillick signed Rod Barajas to a one year, 2.5 million dollar deal a few weeks back.  What does this mean?  Well, it probably means about 80-100 starts of fun out of ol' Roddy.  And that's not good for the Phillies because Rod Barajas freaking sucks.

Rod Barajas came to the majors as an Arizona Diamondback with the reputation of having a good arm, good defense, and lots of power.  He had at least a 170 isolated power(slugging - average) in 3 of his first 4 seasons in the minors, and had over 200 in 2 of those seasons.  The guy could hit for power.  What he was missing at the plate was discipline.  He put up a decent enough OBP in 3 seasons, and only played in 57 games in 1997 anyway.  The Diamondbacks thought enough of him to bring him up in September 2000 for a cup of coffee and, while he didn't exactly light up the stat sheet, he showed promise.  Then in parts of 2001, his season in AAA Tuscon was great, with him hitting .321 with a 366 OBP and 568 slugging percentage (934 OPS).   He still showed that nagging tendency to swing a lot and swing hard, but he actually connected a bunch, thus creating a lot of power and helping his teams win.

But that didn't exactly translate to the majors.  He actually started the 2001 season in the majors fairly early, and did well.  In his first month (where he garned 26 at bats) he amassed a 1.011 OPS, and his 3 homers.  He then proceeded to go homerless the rest of the season, and by the end of the year his OPS bottomed out at 478, and his OBP was a sickly .196 (.165 avg) in 106 AB.    The team that ended up 92-70 and won the World Series was 25-25 with Barajas behind the plate.

His 2002 was not much better, despite getting 50 more at bats.  A .288 OBP, 645 OPS, and 3 homers was all that he collected for the season,  and yet he somehow did even WORSE in 2003, sporting a 265 OBP, 592 OPS and 3 homers in 220 AB.  The Diamondbacks were essentially giving away at bats by filling 150-220 up with Rod's bat.  And they knew it, and didn't re-sign him.

So then the Texas Rangers signs him to be their starting catcher, and he sucks there.  However, his power does come back to him, and in 2004 he hit 15 homers and had a .204 ISO.  Still, his horrible .276 OBP negated any positives he brought to the plate.  2005 was slightly better as he set career highs across the board.  254/306/466 for a 772 OPS (by far his highest OBP and OPS), and his 21 homers in 410 at bats.  Wowzers!  Despite the still horrendous OBP, his power was enough to entice the Rangers to give him the plate again in 2006.  Barajas went back to earth from his glorious, amazing, HOF-worthy year prior, and struggled towards a .298 OBP and 708 OPS in 2006.  Even the Rangers realized he wasn't that good, as he didn't reach triple digits in games played (97).

So where does that leave us?  Well, let's look at a few lists(OBP, OPS, ISO):

OBP (league avg)

01 - .196 (.348)
02 - .288 (.350)
03 - .265 (.355)
04 - .276 (.353)
05 - .306 (.336)
06 - .298 (.345)Wow, he just sucks here.  He at least hit for some contact in the minors, but once he hit the majors he just completely lost any sort of contact or patience he might have had.  He's way below league average EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

OPS (league average)

01 - 478 (799)
02 - 645 (788)
03 - 592 (806)
04 - 729 (807)
05 - 772 (769)
06 - 708 (791)
So out of 6 seasons, 3 of which he started, he was above league average in exactly one of those seasons, and it was slugging-heavy.  He also had that season when he was 29, and probably at his peak.

Isolated Power

    * 01 - .113
    * 02 - .123
    * 03 - .109
    * 04 - .204
    * 05 - .212
    * 06 - .154

He had two very good seasons here, in 04 and 05.  Obviously he needs to start and get enough atbats to be able to find his power stroke...but is it worth it for the team that starts him, considering they also have to deal with his complete inability to get on base?  I'd say definitely no.  But you know who would probably say yes?  Pat Gillick:

 

"Rod brings a lot to the table both offensively and defensively," Phillies general manager Pat Gillick said. "He's a proven winner who gives us added depth at that position."

Well, he may bring something to the table defensively, but offensively he's had one average season and a bunch of sucky ones.  And he's a proven winner?  Why?  Because he absolutely sucked as a backup on the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks?

Remember only a few months back when Abraham Nunez was PROMOTED to a full-time gig after completely failing as a super-sub?   Remember that it took a retirement to get Alex Gonzalez to stop getting at bats?  Prepare for another waste of space, this time in the form of catcher Rod Barajas.

Oh, he's also not yet sponsored on Baseball-Reference.  Only 20 bucks for a willing Phils fan!  What a steal! Much cheaper than that 2.5 million dollar price tag the Phils are paying him to suck.

- stats off thebaseballcube.com, slight variance from ESPN and Baseball-Reference.

Also posted on Huge Tiny Mistake

Since the Phillies just signed former Dodger Jayson Werth to a one year major league deal, let's just check out the 2006 (and career) OPS of each outfielder now under contract by the Phils:

   1. Pat Burrell -  .890 (.842)
   2. Shane Victorino .760 (.714 majors, .760 minors)
   3. Aaron Rowand - .745 (.780)
   4. Jayson Werth - .712 (.753)
   5. Chris Roberson - .458 (.750 minors career)
   6. Michael Bourn .314   (.772 minors career)

Frankly, this is pathetic.  We went from having 3 guys with above-average leauge and position OPS (Burrell, Abreu, Dellucci), to having one in the matter of 6 months.  We're also relying on a lot of progression that just isn't there for guys like Chris Roberson, Shane Victorino, and Michael Bourn.  I was even a fan of Michael Bourn (check the archives of this site), but his hitting just hasn't merited said fandom.  The only guy that's been any good for more than one season in this group has been Pat Burrell, and yet he's the guy that most people love to hate.

Prepare for a great defensive outfield, folks.  Too bad it'll come at the expense of the offense.

Also posted at Huge Tiny Mistake

Your Philadelphia Phillies are looking to sign 2B/LF Alfonso Soriano, and have made their initial bid.

I am about to say something that is a bit against the mainstream thought on this, and I mean it with all sincerity: oh crap. I say that for several reasons, which I will outline thusly:

Continue reading this post »

Huge Tiny Mistake

It's that time again, time for awards! I'm going to make it nice and simple and list the top 5 rookies from each league (which makes it tougher for me but easier for you, the reader). Over the past few years the NL ROY has been won by such great players as Albert Pujols (01), Dontrelle Willis (03), Jason Bay (04), and everyone's favorite Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard (05). The AL ROY has not had the same company, with Ichiro (01, good pick), Eric Hinske (02), Angel Berroa (03), Bobby Crosby (04) and Huston Street (05). A player winning the ROY award doesn't exactly project them to all-star status. For every Scott Rolen (97) or Carlos Beltran (99), there's Ben Grieve (98). So it's not like we're handing out the hall of fame plaques just yet.
Still, it's a good indicator that this guy may actually be something. And let's list the guys that did the best so far in their young careers.  And for all the Phillies fans, I'm going to say right off the bat that King Cole Hamels ain't there, I just liked the picture:

American League

There was some weak rookie hitting in the AL this year, but the pitching was there.

5. Jered Weaver (SP, Anaheim Angels)

    * 11-2, 123 IP, 2.56 ERA 1.03 WHIP .209 OBA
    * 94 hits, 15 homers, 33 walks, 105 Ks 46.1 VORP

With only six starts before the all-star break, Weaver had a tough road to getting the ROY award. He didn't, but it's not his fault. He was lights-out as a pitcher when the Angels brought him up, so much so that his own brother was cut loose by the Angels to make room. With 50 more innings, he might have netted this. And he did all this against some pretty tough offenses. The only problem I see is that he allows a lot of fly balls...which could signify he was getting a bit lucky this season with the ERA and the WHIP. There's a reason that he's below Francisco Liriano on this list.

4. Kenji Johjima (C, Seattle Mariners)

    * 506 AB, 291 avg/332 OBP/451 SLG = 783 OPS 23.1 VORP
    * 25 doubles, 18 homers, 20 walks, 76 RBI, 61 runs, 3 SB

His numbers aren't that impressive on their face, but the guy is a catcher making a complete adjustment to a new country. He fairs well with other catchers, and his Japanese numbers show he has more patience and power to come. His home/away splits are fairly extreme too, meaning that Safeco stole a lot of power from him. He may be 30, but he's the 4th best rookie in the AL this year.

3. Francisco Liriano (SP, Minneosta Twins)

    * 12-3 121 IP, 2.16 ERA 1.00 WHIP .205 OBA
    * 89 hits, 9 homers, 32 walks, 144 Ks, 50.5 VORP

For a two month stretch there, he was the best pitcher in baseball. The guy induced ground balls, prevented home runs, and whiffed anyone and everyone. And then he got hurt, and then he was shut down. As with Jered Weaver, it's not his fault that he wasn't a starter at the beginning of the season, and it's not his fault he didn't pitch more than 120 innings, but it does prevent him from consideration for either the ROY or the CY Young awards. Still, let's hope this guy heals properly so we can marvel at the 1-2 punch of Liriano and Johan Santana (a beast in his own right).

2. Jonathan Papelbon (RP, Boston Red Sox)

    * 4-2 35 saves, 68.1 IP, 0.92 ERA 0.75 WHIP .167 OBA
    * 40 hits, 3 homers, 13 walks, 75 Ks, 38.2 VORP

He was outstanding, simple as that. He was essentially unhittable until August, when he became merely great. Then he got hurt, and didn't pitch much in September. Still, Papelbon had a great rookie season, and there's no reason to think he won't succeed next season as a starter. I can't help but think that maybe the Red Sox would've hung around longer if they had Papelbon as a starter, though. Getting only 68 innings out of this masterpiece of a season seems like a bad allocation of resources.

1. Justin Verlander (SP, Detroit Tigers)

    * 16-9 186 IP 3.63 ERA 1.33 WHIP, .266 OBA
    * 187 hits, 21 homers, 60 walks, 124 Ks, 46.2 VORP

I don't see this as picking Verlander #1, I see this as him lucking out in that both Liriano and Weaver didn't have enough innings, and Papelbon was a reliever the whole year. I don't think the guy's great, even though everyone loves the heat he brings on his fastball. Still, he did a very good job, and I'd expect him to start to learn how to strike guys out and rely less on his defense. As his pedestrian WHIP and opponent's batting average suggest, there's still room for improvement here.

National League

And now, the National League. Although it was a worse league overall, it had some fine rookies. There were several guys that would've made the cut on the AL side that won't here. Scott Olsen had a great year for a rookie pitcher, posting a 4.04 ERA and striking out 166 guys in 180.2 innings. Matt Cain also had some good stats, but he pitched a lot at home, gave up some homers, and his ERA was simply a bit too high. Thus, he doesn't crack the top 5. 2B Josh Barfield really came on in the 2nd half of the season at the plate, and Prince Fielder had a good season at first base. Andre Ethier wishes he was brought up the Dodgers earlier, as does King Cole Hamels. As a Phillies fan I wanted to put him in there, but he simply didn't get enough innings (132 IP). Still, expect both his ERA and WHIP to be much lower next season as he was GREAT in the 2nd half. Anyway, here we go:

5. Josh Johnson (SP, Florida Marlins)

    * 12-7 157 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .236 OBA
    * 136 hits, 14 homers, 68 walks, 133 Ks, 40.5 VORP

Yeah, so I don't really trust the ERA that much, and his WHIP was average, but he produced the most of the NL rookie pitchers this year. He also didn't have huge home/away skews like Matt Cain.

4. Dan Uggla (2B, Florida Marlins)

    * 611 AB, 282 avg/339 OBP/480 SLG = 818 OPS 40 VORP
    * 26 doubles, 27 homers, 7 triples, 48 walks, 90 RBI, 105 runs, 6-12 SB

He had a great season at second. While his glove was often times left at home, he swung the bat well. Although he labored in the 2nd half, his overall line remained very good. The problem I see is he's kind of a hacker, but that can be reigned back a bit without losing proper aggressiveness. He's no Chase Utley, but he's close, he's young and he's here to stay. As a Phils fan it pains me to list all these Marlins, but there are two more to come.

3. Ryan Zimmerman (3B, Washington Nationals)

    * 614 AB, 287 avg/351 OBP/471 SLG = 822 OPS 28.3 VORP
    * 47 doubles, 20 homers, 3 triples, 61 walks, 110 RBI, 84 runs, 11-19 SB

Being the youngest on this list, Zimmerman still had a great first season at third base, playing both sides well. He hit at home and struggled on the road, but he was fairly consistent throughout the season. This is why I give him the edge over Uggla, who faded a bit after the all-star break. Look for him to continue to improve and add some dingers to his total, and perhaps reach 30 next season. Also expect to see more patience.

2. Josh Willingham (LF, Florida Marlins)

    * 502 AB, 277 avg/356 OBP/496 SLG = 852 OPS 28.5 VORP
    * 28 doubles, 26 homers, 2 triples, 54 walks, 74 RBI, 62 runs, 2 SB

His counting numbers aren't as good as some, but his rate stats are nice. He also improved throughout the season, and flashed some serious power down the stretch. Although his VORP is low compared to his teammate Uggla, his still had a better output in regards to getting on base and hitting for power. They weren't close enough to merit putting Uggla over him because of defense (not that Uggla is that tidy with the glove, either).

1. Hanley Ramirez (SS, Florida Marlins)

    * 633 AB, 292 avg/353 OBP/480 SLG = 833 OPS 55.9 VORP
    * 46 doubles, 17 homers, 11 triples, 56 walks, 59 RBI, 119 runs, 51-66 SB

OK, so after talking all about how I won't overvalue VORP (value over replacement player), I'm going to overvalue it here. He is heads above everyone else on this list in VORP, and is equal to only Josh Willingham in EQA (total offensive value per out, adjusted for everything). However, he was at hte plate a lot more than Willingham was, and thus had more of an impact for the Marlins. As you can tell, I value players actually playing a lot, thus why I didn't give the awards to guys like Liriano, Papelbon, Hamels, etc. They all had great first seasons...but were not used enough to merit getting the award. They simply didn't have enough of a balance between quantity and quality. Ramirez did, though, and set the table pretty well for the Marlins throughout the season. He also showed some good power, and I see no reason why that will stop. It wasn't a fluke, and neither was his season.

Huge Tiny Mistake
Now it's time to give out the award for the best pitcher. I'm going to do it the same way as I did the ROY, by naming my top 5 from each league. I also won't rely on wins and losses. I won't even look at them, even though I will list them. You get to a point where that means very little. If you're a pitcher and you go 8 strong innings and your manager pulls you and the bullpen blows it...is that your fault? Should you get penalized because you didn't get that WIN? Your team lost, not just you. You shouldn't be penalized in the CY Young award rankings because you lost a game in the standings.

Anyway, let's check out the previous years: Bartolo Colon (AL 2005), Chris Carpenter (NL 2005), Johan Santana (AL 2004), Roger Clemens (NL 2004) And that Colon CY Young? Johan Santana had more innings, more Ks, a better ERA, better WHIP, and gave up less homers. But he had two less wins!!!! TWO LESS WINS?!?! Well I never!

Oh, and you won't be seeing any relievers on these lists.  They just don't pitch enough for my liking.  And most of those who read this site know my feelings about the save stat, so...there we are.

Let's check out 2006:

American League

5. Erik Bedard (SP, Baltimore Orioles)

    * 15-11  196.1 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP   39.7 VORP
    * 171 Ks, 69 walks (2. 48 K:BB), 7.84 K per 9,  16 homers,  .258 OBA

Bedard had a very good season after his breakout year in 05.  His very low homer total showed that he didn't leave many fat ones over the plate for hitters, and thus his peripheral numbers are very good.  I would pick Bedard going in 2007 to be battling for 2nd best American League pitcher.

4. Jeremy Bonderman (SP, Detroit Tigers)

    * 14-8  214 IP, 4.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP    39.2 VORP
    *  202 Ks, 64 walks (3.16 K:BB) 8.50 K per 9, 18 homers, .259 OBA

The 4th and 5th spots in the AL are very tough to pick, with several guys having similar looking stats.  As you can tell, I'm not too concerned about lowest ERA here, simply because there is a variable of luck involved in one's ERA.  Bonderman had great peripheral stats, and prevented people from putting the ball in play.  This is HUGE, and I give a lot of weight to that.  Bonderman has already shown in the playoffs that he is a formidable pitcher, though I didn't factor that into this ranking.  The interesting thing about all this is that he did worse in Detroit than on the road in ERA and WHIP, for whatever reason.

3.  CC Sabathia (SP, Cleveland Indians)

    * 12-11, 192.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 1.17 WHP   46 VORP
    * 172 Ks, 44 walks (3.90 K:BB), 8.03 K per 9, 17 homers, .247 OBA

A big ranking for a big man.   And great control to go along with that immense size.  Sabathia's iffy win-loss record will surely drive away some  CY Young voters who only look on the surface, but looking at how few homers he gave up, how much he controlled baserunners and kept them off, he deserves to be 3rd this year.  Indians fans can hope next year that their team rides back from obscurity partly because of Sabathia.

2. Roy Halladay (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)

    * 16-5 220 IP, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP  68.2 VORP
    * 132 K, 34 walks (3.88 K:BB),  5.4 K per 9, 19 homers .251 OBA

He had another good year in his nice career.  Problem is, it doesn't bode well for the next couple years...why?  His peripheral numbers are declining.  While he's still very accurate, he's less accurate than he was, and he's striking out a LOT less guys can before.  This means he's relying more and more on his defense to get him out of innings, and it could catch up to him in the future.  For now though Halladay is the 2nd best pitcher in the AL.

1. Johan Santana (SP, Minneosta Twins)

    * 19-6, 233.2 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP  79.7 VORP
    * 245 Ks, 47 walks (5.21 K:BB) 9.44 K per 9, 24 homers, .216 OBA

We are seeing a hall of famer blossom before our very eyes.  He's BY FAR the best pitcher in baseball, and should be threepeating the CY Young award this year.  It's too bad voters were morons last year.  He simply can't be matched in today's game.  He has terrific control, doesn't allow many runners at all, and has guys lunging constantly.  The sick thing about all of this is that he's only 27 years old and only finished his 4th full season so far(had parts of 2 others).   Just imagine what his numbers will start to look like in a few years when they start piling up.  Sometimes we just all have to give it up to greatness, and greatness' name is Johan Santana.
National League

5. Bronson Arroyo (SP, Cincinnati Reds)

    * 14-11 240.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP,  63.1 VORP
    * 184 Ks, 64 walks (2.88 K:BB) 6.88 K per 9, 31 homers, .243 OBA

His peripherals aren't outstanding, but his incredible amount of innings does pile up and help a team out.  That's why I'm giving him 5th, even though he gave up a decent amount of homers.  He still had a great year, and the Reds made a terrific deal by giving up Wily Mo Pena for him.  With Arroyo and Aaron Harang, they have a good 1-2 punch going for next season.

4.  John Smoltz (SP, Atlanta Braves)

    * 16-9 232 IP, 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP  62.5 VORP
    * 211 Ks, 55 walks ( 3.84 K:BB) 8.19 K per 9, 23 homers, .251 OBA

He was one of the few Braves pitchers to show up this season, despite being one of the oldest.  He also was better than Bronson Arroyo at EVERYTHING except having his ERA be lower.  This basically means he was less lucky than Arroyo.  His defense was no great shakes behind him, but neither was Arroyo's.  Anyway, he gave up few homers, struck out a lot of guys, and had good control.  There's not much more you can ask for from a pitcher, even though 3 others were better than him this year.  As a Phils fan, I can hope that he may decline due to age next season, but other than that we're just going to have to deal with him again.

3. Roy Oswalt (SP, Houston Astros)

    * 15-8 220.2 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP  71.8 VORP
    * 166 Ks, 38 walks ( 4.37 K:BB) 6.77 K per 9, 18 homers, .263 OBA

Oswalt hangs around 3 and 4 every season in the CY Young rankings, and this year is no different.  He's just a consistent, solid pitcher for the Astros, and he does it in a fairly hitter friendly ballpark.  This is what gives him the edge over Smoltz, despite not striking out as many guys.  He also gives up fewer homers.

2. Chris Carpenter (SP, Saint Louis Cardinals)

    *  15-8, 221.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP  67.2 VORP
    * 184 Ks, 43 walks ( 4.28 K:BB)  7.47 K per 9, 21 homers, .235 OBA

To be frank about it, I wanted him to repeat.  I tried to see how I could put him #1.  I wantd there to be two pitchers who were heads and shoulders above the rest.  But I couldn't.  He had a tremendous year after an early DL stint, and helped the Cardinals hang onto their playoff berth.  There's no reason to suggest he won't be in the hunt for the 2007 CY Young award, but this just isn't his year.

1. Brandon Webb (SP, Arizona Diamondbacks)

    *  16-8 235 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP  68.6 VORP
    * 178 Ks, 50 walks ( 3.56 K:BB) 6.82 K per 9, 15 homers, .246 OBA

Webb had a terrific year.  He's quietly become one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues, but pitching in Arizona definitely minimizes his profile.  After a subpar 2004(119 walks), he turned it around in 05 and built on that this year.  What puts Webb over the top of everyone else on this list is his crazy ability to induce groundballs and prevent the home run.  He pitched the most innings and yet had the least homers?  Nice.  He had the best GB:FB ratio in the National League?  Very nice.  And unlike some other groundball pitchers, he didn't let many guys on base?  Well that does it, he's the CY Young in my mind.

We all can read Jimmy Rollins' stat line in the newspaper:

.279 average, 44 doubles, 8 triples, 25 home runs, 82 RBI, 124 runs, 36 SB

Looks pretty good, especially for a leadoff man. And it is good. It's not the best, though, if one ranks leadoff men(with at least 325 plate appearances) by OPS (on-base + slugging percentage):

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While watching the Phillies defeat the Nationals in 14 innings last night, I heard several people say that the Phillies `looked tight' and were playing `with pressure'. So tight and so much pressure that they actually won the game, right? But anyway, this idea that if the Phillies lose they `choke' is simply crap. Sometimes baseball teams lose baseball games. Actually, they all lose at least 60 of them every year. Even the best teams do that! And if you're going to have a ton of close one-run games, you're going to lose several of those. That's only natural...even a great reliever like Trevor Hoffman has lost games this year. Reliever have no room to work in one run games, so anything they give up looks that much worse. Losing close games doesn't mean a team has played tight or has choked, it means they're a baseball team that falls into the law of averages.

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I know it's not Phils, but it's baseball and I would think it'd start a good discussion.  Here's something I wrote a day or two ago:

That's right, Trevor Hoffman got his 479th career save last night to pass former Saint Louis Cardinal Lee Smith (now 2nd on the list). And this means...not fucking much. It means he's stuck around long enough and he's been the Padres `closer' for a long time, but the stat itself is crap. Is the last 3 outs of a game any more important than the first 24? Maybe only because it's the `last chance' to score, but then that's only because baseball itself has put such arbitrary importance on it.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers ever, has a great career ERA, WHIP, K per 9, and hasn't given up many homers or walks. The guy's a great reliever, pitcher, and will be a hall-of-famer. But it shouldn't be because of he was able to hold some 3 run leads. Hell, a save is technically acquired if one goes the last 3 innings in a 9 run game. It's just inconsequential. Derrick Turnbow has a 6.71 ERA and 1.66 WHIP and 24 saves this year. Todd Jones has a 4.20 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and only 23 Ks in 59.1 innings and yet has 36 saves for the Tigers. If you're on a winning ballclub and you're the closer, you're going to get 30-40 saves no problem.  A reliever that can't save 15 games by holding onto a3 run lead for one inning shouldn't be on your team anyway.
But Trevor Hoffman is a beast. We don't know that by the saves total other than he's had so many over his career so he must be good enough to stay designated as a `best reliever' on the Padres...but ERA, WHIP, Ks, BBs, HRs, etc. all show that he's been damn good.

Huge Tiny Mistake

Likely on purpose, ESPN.com's front page highlighted the race for MVP, and delcared it a two man race:

* Howard blasts Nos. 50, 51, 52 | Pujols hits 3, too

The juxtaposition does not go unnoticed here. I also see it as a two man race at first glance, with Pujols having the lead in the rate stats(AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) and Howard having the edge in the counting stats(hits, HR, RBI). Though RBI is fairly team-dependent, it still makes baseball writers' heart go a-fluttering.

Now, who's better? Who's more valuable?

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Lost in all the talk about the burgeoning team chemistry was this little nugget buried at the bottom of Yahoo's recap of Monday's 8-3 loss to the Mets:

The Phillies have hit 38 homers this month. The team record for August is 39, set in 2004. Howard tied Mike Schmidt for the club record for homers in August with his 12th this month. Schmidt hit 12 in August 1975.

Who'd have thunk it, huh? All this team chemistry, small-ball and willing to victory has produced probably the best power output for the Phillies of all-time, for both an individual (Howard) and the team. Somehow this has gotten such esteemed experts as John Marzano, who continues to beat on 'the little things' night after night from his cozy chair at Comcast Sportsnet's studios.

But let's not all turn into little Johnny Marz's...spread the word about the Phillies power, as I have done. Take note that our MVP-candidate is Ryan Howard, and not little-ball master Abe Nunez. Take note that our leadoff hitter doesn't have to steal first, or second, when he hits a double. And in fact, he can just jog around the bases when he hits a homer. Pat Burrell may take a lot of called thirds, but the many does belt some over the fence, and also gets on base at a healthy clip. Our second baseman is thought of as the best in the league not for his 'grit', but for the way he hits. People just like him more because his jersey gets dirty. David Dellucci has provided a healthy batting average, a healthy eye, and a helping of doubles and homers.

This is the Phillies' bread and butter folks. Power. Pure, uncompromising power. Learn to love it. Leading the Majors in runs since the all-star break takes a bit more than bunting guys over and stealing bases.

About 5 weeks ago I looked at the Phillies walk rates as individuals and as a team. I concluded that the team was fairly hackish, and that the players who weren't hackish were mostly from outside the organization (Abreu, for example). The bench was littered with hackers, and 'young' hitters Utley and Howard were OK, but nothing exciting. This basically meant that some guys had good eyes, some had decent eyes, but many players were swinging at balls. How has one month affected these rates and what does this say about the offense? Let's look at them and how they've changed:

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