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Apr 12, 2008 Dec 22, 2009 10 679

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Arizona lost Ambriz (to the Twins Indians) and picked Zack Kroenke (from the Yankees), a lefty AAA reliever with good stuff and command problems.

It seems like an insignificant move, but like the Scherzer/Jackson deal it's very much ERA driven.

Ambriz started the year in AA and pitched well enough to be promoted after 5 starts. In AAA, he had a FIP of 3.8, but a ridiculous BABIP (.372) and strand rate raised his ERA to 5.57.

Kroenke, meanwhile, had a FIP of 3.64 but a sparkling 1.99 ERA thanks to a .251 BABIP.

I'm not complaining here, it seems we have a lot of starters similar to Ambriz in our system, and Kroenke may be a better fit, but it kinda sucks to root for a team that can't differentiate pitcher talent from BABIP.

12 days ago Untitled_tiny paqs 36 comments 0 recs

DBack to the Future - Minor League Report

Bryan Augenstein was just one of the prospects who pitched well this week.

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Bryan Augenstein was just one of the prospects who pitched well this week.

I was thinking, if I were a baseball fan in Reno, I would not be a happy man. At the beginning of the season, eight of the top ten prospects in the Diamondback system were below AAA, Valdez and Buckner being the exceptions. A Reno fan would naturally have assumed they'll get to see some of these prospects this year or even next. Well, so far this year, no less than 5 players were called up to the majors straight from AA. The same thing happened with Reynolds and Upton two years ago. To make things even worse for Reno fans, the GM said the other day something along the lines of "Parker will stay at AA this year, and pitch for a spot in the rotation next spring". I don't have the stats, but this skipping of a development stage can't be very good. Anyway, on to this week's report.

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5 comments  |  2 recs |

DBack To The Future - A Minor League Report

Gerardo Parra has been smoking hot since his promotion from AA. But who will be the next player to follow him to the show?

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Gerardo Parra has been smoking hot since his promotion from AA. But who will be the next player to follow him to the show?

As you take your time recovering from an amazing double header (hey, at least you didn't stay up all night to watch it), I'm pleased to bring you a minor league report. It's been a while since the last one, but the minors aren't that interesting when most of your best prospects are already playing in the bigs. In light of that, this might be a bit shorter than usual (on second thought, no it won't). In order to be as short as possible, I'll be using wOBA+ and tRA+ a lot. Basically, they are good true talent measures, and they are normalized (tRA+ and wOBA+ of 100 is league average, 150 is 50% better than league average, etc.). If you need more info, I'll get into it in the comments. I'll start with Reno.

Reno

The Aces are struggling. They are 2-10 in their last 12 games, and 15-24 overall, good for last place. The runs have dried since Whitesell got called up and Murillo got banned for using steroids, and the Aces have scored 5 runs in their last 4 games. Well, Whitesell should be back tonight, hopefully not for long, as I'm sure he can hit major league pitching, 26 at-bats with a BABIP of .150 notwithstanding.

 

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Since I was too swamped to do a proper report this week, I want to apologize and offer you this file, containing up to date stats for all four levels.

What I did is I compiled all the stats from milb.com and calculated wOBA and FIP (thanks to FanGraphs). I also added expected BABIP (xBABIP) for every player based on their batted ball stats (thanks to minorleaguesplits) and recalculated their wOBA based on that (that would be the xwOBA column). Finally the xFIP column is also courtesy of minorleaguesplits and it normalizes the HR per Fly-ball rate.

So the xwOBA and xFIP columns are your best bet for luck free stats. They are scaled to OBA and ERA, so .330 is an average wOBA and .400 is amazing, and a 4.5 FIP is average, while 3 is amazing.

I hope I haven't scared you away, the triple slash stats are in there as well, and you can sort by whatever you want.

7 months ago Untitled_tiny paqs 1 comment 0 recs

Fangraphs writer David Golebiewski looks at two of our outfielders and how they're going in opposite directions.

7 months ago Untitled_tiny paqs 0 comments 0 recs

DBack To The Future - The Weekly Minor League Report

Josh Whitesell is wondering what needs to happen for him to get called up.

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Josh Whitesell is wondering what needs to happen for him to get called up.

Since we can agree a bit of a break from the exploits of our DBacks would do us a great deal of good, I'm pleased to bring you this week's minor league report.  Jim and I agreed it should be a weekly thing where I recap the week for all the levels, and focus on one level each week, starting with AAA. It will probably be a Thursday fixture going forward, but since I wrote it yesterday, we figured I'll put it up and plan the next one for the following Thursday.

First of all, though, a small recap of the minor league moves made last week. Somewhat strangely, all of them are related to pitching.

  • RHP Leo Rosales was promoted to the majors in place of the injured Tom Gordon. He had a good 0.90 ERA in 10 IP in Reno, but he can't strike anyone out and will pretty much get smoked in the majors. Fine, this was written after the game last night, but his performance wasn't a shock by any means.
  • AAA LHP Evan MacLane was dealt to St. Louis for future considerations. He came over in 2006 in the Shawn Green trade and hasn't really impressed, with an ERA of 7.70 in 2007 and 4.96 last year. Unbelievably, I couldn't find any mention of this on milb.com or by Piecoro.
  • In his place, RHP Hector Ambriz was called up from AA. He had an ERA of 2.17 after 5 starts, with 32 strikeouts and 6 walks in 29 innings. Piecoro says it's not clear whether he'll start or pitch from the bullpen. Reno already has 5 starters, in Barnette, Blackley, Buckner, Etherton and Valdez, but if Ambriz has a shot at starting in the majors, it makes sense to start him in AAA. It's not as if any of the starters is doing well.
  • Ambriz vacated a spot for our No. 1 prospect, Jarrod Parker, who was promoted to AA after 4 starts in Visalia (19 IP, 0.95 ERA, 21 K, 4 BB). He wasn't dominant in his first start for Mobile (4.1 IP, 8H, 3ER) but he allowed only one extra base hit, with 5 strikeouts and a walk.
  • RHP Reid Mahon made his season debut for AA, after staying in extended spring training to get his mechanics straightened out after a rough spring training.
  • In Parker's place, RHP Cristian Beltre, who was delayed by shoulder fatigue in spring training, made his first start for Visalia last night. He allowed 1 earned run in 3 innings. He showed promise in South Bend last year, going 13-8 in 26 starts, with a K/BB of 4.5 in 155.1 innings.

A full recap of the four levels follows after the jump.

 

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Minor league report - A

Our A ball affilliate in South Bend doesn't have much in terms of big name prospects, but there are some interesting players from the last two drafts who couldn't be placed in Visalia and some of our top young Latin prospects. As you'll see below, offense is really not the strong point with this team, and it leaves them 4th in their division with a 7-9 record. The pitching side, however, is very intriguing.

Batters:

The Good:

  • Brendan Duffy is a lefty OF who followed his good work in Missoula last year (.274/.423/.372) with a hot start this season (.367/.436/.388 in 50 PA). His BABIP is astronomic at .486 and he's going to have to bring some more patience and power to the plate when it comes down.
  • SS Reynaldo Navarro was a 3rd round pick in 2007, and he will play the entire 2009 season (his third) at the age of 19. He hit .258/.323/.385 at rookie ball in 2008 with rates of 7.9 BB% and 26.5 K%. He also stole 17 bases in 26 attempts and has good athleticism. Navarro, like most young players, has struggled with errors at shortstop. He started this season hot, batting .289/.373/.422 in 50 PA, with a BABIP that's high at .360 but not way ahead of his career BABIP. If he can impress in full season ball at a very young age, we're looking at a hot prospect.

The Bad:

  • Isaias Asencio is a 21 outfield prospect who had a solid showing in Rookie league last year. However, his line of .293/.325/.512 masked a horrible BB:K ratio (2.7% BB, 24,7% K). He started this year with the same hacking habit, and it's no surprise the results have changed dramatically. His line through 58 PA stands at .212/.259/.346, and that's with a solid BABIP of .314. He has some power, evidenced by the fact that 5 of his 11 hits were for extra bases, but his BB:K ratio is 3:17 and he won't go far if that doesn't change.
  • Alberto Diaz might just be an Asencio clone. 20 years old, plays the outfield, has some power and absolutely zero plate discipline. He also had an acceptable showing in Rookie league in '08 (.275/.327/.440) but came down hard this year to the tune of .224/.250/.379. He has hit 2 HR in 60 PA, but again, 10 Ks for every walk does not befit a baseball player.
  • Ryan Babineau is rated by Baseball America as our best defensive catcher. In addition to those skills, he submitted a decent season in Missoula last year, batting .231/.369/.320 in 180 PA. He seems to have a good eye for the plate, but not the required bat speed, as further evidenced by his start this year (.125/.282/.250). A 17% BB rate is magnificent, but you have to be able to make contact when you do swing the ball, and Babineau has not done that yet in his pro career.

Pitchers:

The Good:

  • Ryan Cook is an unheralded 27th round pick from last year's draft. After throwing 33 innings in Missoula last year (4.64 ERA) he started this year in fine form, and his line after three starts is 2-0, 19 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 1.42 ERA. If he wants to sustain his hot start, he'll really need to miss more bats at this level.
  • Unlike Cook, a lot is expected from lefty Wade Miley, our sandwich pick in '08. He is a hard-throwing left-hander who can touch 95 mph, and also features a plus slider, curveball and change-up. If he can improve his command/control, Miley, 22, could stick as a starter. After a cup of coffee in Missoula last summer, he was sent to South Bend and while his ERA after 4 starts is unimpressive at 4.11, his controllable stats are shiny (13 K, 2 BB, 1 HR in 15.1 IP). He might be a candidate for a quick promotion, maybe even to fill in for Parker at Visalia.
  • Trevor Harden was a nice find in the 14th round of the 2008 draft. He features an 89-93 mph fastball, slider and change-up. Harden had a solid debut in rookie ball by posting a 1.91 ERA (1.78 FIP) with 34 hits allowed in 42.1 innings against younger competition. He posted rates of 2.34 BB/9 and 13.61 K/9. As he entered full-season ball in 2009, he is 2-1 in his first 3 starts, with an ERA of 3.18, and 16 K, 2 BB, 2 HR in 17 IP.
  • After two bad years in Short A ball, lefty reliever Sean Morgan started the season in fine form, with an ERA of 0.96 in 9.1 IP, with 9 K and 4 BB. He has been plagued by walks so far in his career (43 in 70 IP) and he'll need to work on his control in order to stick around.
  • RHP Terry Hose started 15 games for Missoula last year with mixed results (4.48 ERA in 78.1 IP, but a K/BB of 2.85 and only 5 HR). He was shifted to the bullpen this year, and has started brightly, with an ERA of 2.35 in 7.2 IP.
  • Lefty Bayron Zepeda has a tidy 1.59 ERA in 5.2 IP this year. However, he has not struck out a batter yet, after posting 37 K in 41.2 IP in Rookie league in '08.

The Bad:

  • RHP Daniel Vasquez had two good years in Short A (3.95 ERA in 89 IP total). He's struggling this season with a 7.04 ERA in 7.2 IP, but if he catches up to his career K/9 rate of 8.7, he'll be alright.
  • RHP Jordan Meaker was great in Missoula in '08, posting an ERA of  1.47 in 36.2 IP. However, that was not the whole story, because a high walk rate (5.15 BB/9) meant that his FIP stood at 3.80. With a BABIP that's almost twice as high as last year (.429 vs .243) he posted a 9.53 ERA through 5.2 IP this year. The BABIP will regress heavily, but he'll need to cut down on the walks to be effective.
  • Righty Rafael Quezada might just be the answer to the age old question "What would it be like if Jon Rauch was a starter?" After getting lit up in the Rookie league of all places last year, to the tune of an 8.17 ERA in 68.1 IP, with 11 HR and 36 BB, he is serving BP in South Bend, and the result are remarkably similar: 10.1 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 2 HR, 8.71 ERA. Even his K rate isn't special.

Well, this concludes my look at our minor league affiliates through the first couple of weeks of the season. Hope you enjoyed it. I might do a quick weekly report every Monday to see who's hot and who's not, if you're interested, of course.

 

2 comments  |  1 recs

Minor league report - A+

I continue my DBacks minor league report with a look at Advanced A Visalia Rawhide. It's a team loaded with talent from our last two drafts, and they tied the Cal league record with a 10-0 start. They cooled off somewhat since then, but they sit at the top of the north division with a 13-5 record.

Batters:

The Good:

  • Baseball America regards Colin Cowgill as the Diamondbacks' second-best outfield prospect (No. 9 overall). Cowgill led the Northwest League with 11 home runs last summer despite being promoted to the Midwest League after just 20 games. His overall line between the two levels was .264/.366/.479. He has legitimate power and a great eye. His line to start the season is .318/.444/.652 with 4 HR in 81 PA. His BABIP is .395 meaning his batting average is likely in for a regression, but with his eye and power, he's a legitimate prospect.
  • Ollie Linton is a top-of-the-order left handed hitter, posting a .363 on-base percentage last summer in A ball. He is also considered a good defender and has speed to burn. His line to start the season is .305/.468/.824 and it's not influenced by a high BABIP. His BB rate is 20% and his K rate is 8.5%, both terrific numbers.
  • 1B Ryne White is regarded as the Diamondbacks' best first-base prospect after opening his career last year hitting .289 with seven HR between stops in the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues. His stats so far are .317/.414/.400 with a high .396 BABIP.
  • C Ed Easley started the season well after a poor showing last year (.247/.313/.336). He is hitting .250/.451/.346 in 71 PA with a low BABIP, walking in every fourth PA. In fact, he has 17 walks compared with 13 hits so far.

The Bad:

  • After posting good numbers in South Bend last year (.276/.314/.414), middle infielder Taylor Harbin is off to a slow start this year, hitting .250/.308/.347 in his first 79 PA.
  • C/DH Konrad Schmidt hit .288/.340/.372 between two levels of A ball last year, but his success hasn't translated to this year yet, where he's hitting just .226/.305/.264 in 59 PA.
  • After hitting .302/.351/.439 in 231 PA in Rookie league in '08, 3B Kyle Greene had a rough start in '09, hitting just .207/.288/.328 in 66 PA, striking out 38% of the time.

Pitchers:

The Good:

  • RHP Jarrod Parker pitched so well he earned a promotion to AA after just four stats. His line? 19 IP, 21 K, 4 BB, 0.95 ERA. It seems the front office is limiting his innings and pitch totals, which is the right thing to do at this point. In fact, last season in South Bend, he was only allowed to throw fastballs, and he still struck out a batter per inning. It will surprise no one if he's pitching for a spot in the big league rotation next spring.
  • However, reliever William Spottiswood has outdone Parker, earning a promotion to AAA for his trouble. He followed his sterling work in A ball last year (64 IP, 58K, 16 BB, 1 HR, 2.11 ERA) with an even better start this year. His line of 8 IP, 9K, 1BB, 2ER was enough for him to skip a level, although if you read my AA report, you know that club is loaded with hot relief arms, so maybe that's the reason. He has allowed a couple of runs in 2 IP in his debut for Reno last night, but added another 2 strikeouts.
  • Righty starter Wes Roemer, a sandwich pick in 2007, hasn't had a great year last year (4.59 ERA in 162.2 IP) for Visalia, so he got a chance to repeat this level, and so far, the results are there. 4 starts, 19.2 IP, 12K, 6 BB, 0 HR for a 1.83 ERA. His K:BB could be higher, but he hasn't allowed a home run this year after allowing 25 last year.
  • Another promising starter is Josh Collmenter, who is in his first year at A+ after two great seasons in A ball (2.71 ERA in 2007, 3.41 ERA in 2008). After 3 starts this year, his line is 16IP, 16K, 4BB, 1HR, 2.81 ERA.
  • Jordan Norberto is a young lefty relief arm with good stuff (296 K in 290 IP in his career) and poor control (138 BB). He pitched a 100 A ball innings in both '07 and '08 and had little success, with an ERA around 5.30. This year, it's more of the same (12 K, 6 BB in 11 IP) but the results look better because he allowed 0 HR to keep his ERA at 3.27. It's hard to see him keep this up unless he can cut down on free passes.
  • Brian Henry is a right handed bullpen arm coming off a good season in A ball (3.10 ERA in 90 IP). He started the year on fire, punching out 14 batters in 11.2 to help himself to a 2.31 ERA. The 10.9 K/9 rate is a huge improvement on his career numbers to date, and it'll be a challenge for him to sustain it.

The Bad:

  • Leyson Septimo, our outfielder turned lefty power pitcher can bring the heat (51 K in 48.1 IP in his short career as a pitcher) but he's still learning to locate his pitches (41 BB). Needless to say, the results are not there. After posting an ERA of 5.49 last year, he's at 4.91 after 7.1 IP this year (7 K, 8 BB). Throwing heat in the upper 90s as a lefty is enough to make scouts drool, but unless he learns to pitch, I can't see him being an asset.
  • After a good year in A ball in '08 (3.44 ERA in 115 IP), lefty reliever Tom Layne started off slowly this year, with an ERA of 6.75 through 9.1 IP. He is not helping himself with a 4:5 K:BB.
  • Chase Christianson is another relief pitcher off to a slow start. After a pedestrian season last year at this level (5.95 ERA in 115 IP), his ERA is at 7.27 after 8.2 IP this year. He's done a good job not allowing a homer yet this year, after allowing 14 last year, but a K:BB of 6:4 is not good enough.

Well, the Visalia club just got a little less interesting with the promotion of Parker, but nevertheless, there are some interesting players to keep an eye on in the future. I'll conclude this exercise with a look at our A ball affiliate in South Bend.

 

25 comments  |  1 recs

Minor league report - AA

Next up are the Mobile BayBears, and it gets a lot better here. Mobile is the home of three top prospects and several other promising players. Gerardo Parra is our best hitting prospect, and he's rated no. 2 by Baseball America. Daniel Schlereth is our 2008 first rounder, rated no. 3 by BA. Middle infielder Mark Hallberg is rated as our no. 4 prospect. Other players of note are OF Evan Frey, who led our system in steals last year, SS Pedro Ciriaco, rated our best infield defender, Rule 5 pick James Skelton, who just missed out on a 25-man roster sport and a plethora of promising young pitchers.

They made a good start to the season and are top of the SOU South with a 12-5 record, thanks mainly to some great pitching.

Batters:

The Good:

  • Gerardo Parra has been as good as advertised. Beginning the year in AA after a brief spell at the end of last season, he is on fire, hitting .377/.493/.492 in 75 PA, albeit with a .423 BABIP. And that's playing against older players. The only knock on him is he doesn't have enough power for a corner outfield spot (he's projected as a corner outfielder in the majors), but with an OBP of .500 and a BB:K of 2, that's just nitpicking. He could develop as a .300/.400/.450 guy in the majors.
  • 3B Ricardo Sosa has been as good, if not better, so far, with a line of .371/.435/.581 in 69 PA. His BABIP is also at a sky high .428, so expect a good deal of regression, but even a regressed line has him OPS-ing .874. This is his first season in AA, after a couple of disappointing years in A-ball.
  • 1B Bryan Byrne is another player with a hot start fueled by a high BABIP, with a line of .333/.484/.479 in 64 PA. However, his walk rate is at 18.8% for the year and 15% for his career, which means what he's a valuable player regardless of batting average. He is also a line drive hitter, which makes his career BABIP just under .350. Certainly a player to keep an eye on.
  • RF Chris Rahl, another BABIP beneficiary, is hitting .324/.457/.568 in 46 PA after two terrible years in AA where he OPSed .682 and a Byrnes-post-2007-like .587. He's probably headed for a huge regression.

The Not So Bad:

  • Evan Frey had a great year last season, batting.314/.400/.411 with 37 steals between South Bend and Visalia, and earning himself a first shot at AA this year at the young age of 22. He isn't exactly setting the world alight, but his .254/.329/.373 line in 70 PA is mostly held back by BABIP. On first glance his .300 BABIP seems normal, but he has a line drive bat that helped him to an incredible .370 BABIP in his career so far. Couple that with a great eye (11.5% BB this season, 10+ for his career) and he's one of our brightest prospects. Like Parra, he has no home run power, but I think some high average + high OBP + low power guys are a welcome change in contrast to our big league guys, who can hit it 500 feet, but also will likely never sniff league average OBP numbers.
  • You've all heard of C James Skelton, the OBP machine acquired from Detroit in the Rule 5 draft. He did everything he could to keep a spot on the 25 man roster, but since he's never played above AA, his bat wasn't quite up to the task, even if his eye was. So instead of shipping him back to Detroit, we traded a AA starter for him. After a .294/.425/.399 season in AA last year, his .229/.371/.313 line is held back by a BABIP that's 100 points lower than his career number (another LD bat). However, the 23 year old left hander's BB:K ratio is close to 2.5 and while he has no real power (sensing a theme here? :) when his BABIP gets back to normal, he'll be among the league leaders in OBP. Whether his future is in middle infield or behind the dish, an on base freak in a light hitting position is a real asset.
  • The last of the unlucky brigade is No. 4 prospect, 2B - SS Mark Hallberg, who at 23 gets his first shot at AA after two good seasons in A ball. He started the season 0 for 21, but has since started hitting and walking to improve to a line of .188/.322/.271 in 59 PA which is going to look a lot better when an unsustainable BABIP of .225 goes up.

The Bad:

  • Our slick fielding SS prospect Pedro Ciriaco also gets his first shot at AA at the age of 23 after hitting .310 for A+ Visalia last year. His line of .196/.222/.294 in 54 PA is held back by a .238 BABIP, however his lack of plate discipline means his offensive value is tied solely to BA and BABIP.
  • Speaking of light hitting middle infield hackers, SS Yuniesky Sanchez is repeating AA at the age of 25. His line of .222/.239/.289 in 46 PA is also held back by a .238 BABIP, but no amount of luck on balls in play is going to make up for a 2.2% BB percentage. Apparently Yuniesky swings at strikes, balls, pickoff throws and small bird, making Pablo Sandoval look like Pat Burrell.

Pitchers:

The Good:

  • Righty Brian Augenstein is wondering what it takes to get on Baseball America's top 10 prospect list. His work last year between South Bend and Visalia: 22 starts, 131 innings, 99 K, a Maddux-like 14 walks (!!) for a 2.74 ERA. The best part? That was his age 21 season. That earned him a promotion to AA, and boy, did he bring it. So far, 3 starts, 3 wins, 19 IP, 1 ER, 17 K, 2 BB for an ERA of 0.47. That's what you call a good start. Considering our rotation in AAA is terrible, he or one of the other pitchers listed below could be in for a quick promotion.
  • Hector Ambriz had a bad start on Sunday, allowing 5 ER on 5 hits and 4 walks in 4.1 IP. The good news? That raised his ERA to 2.86. He's off to a great start as well, with a K:BB of 26:6 in 22 IP, holding opposing hitters under the Mendoza line. After a couple of dissappointing seasons, he seems to be coming into his own at age 25.
  • There are no less than 6 relievers with good numbers, so I'll go through them quickly. RHP Dan Stange has an ERA of 2.57 with a K:BB of 8:1 in 7 IP, after an injury plagued season last year.
  • LHP Scott Maine (1.13 ERA, 7:0 K:BB in 8 IP) is even better in his first taste of AA after postinh 10 K/9 in Visalia last year.
  • After posting a 3.34 ERA and 72K in 67 innings across three levels last year (he even got a taste of AAA late in the year), Jason Urquidez is yet to allow a run in 9.1 innings in AA this year, striking out 7 and walking only two. To be fair, at 26 he is old for this level, so I'd expect him to prove himself in AAA this year.
  • The magnificent story of last year was LHP Clay Zavada, who threw 35.1 innings in A ball, allowing 2 earned runs and even more incredibly striking out 54! He was added to our 40 man roster and picked up where he left off last year, punching out 11 in 8 innings, walking only two, and allowing just one run on a solo homer.
  • Our 2008 first rounder, LHP Dan Schlereth started the season in AA, continuing his steep climb (he only threw 12 innings in Rookie and A ball last year) and his line so far is 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 4 BB. He walked 10 in 18 IP in his pro career so far, so here's hoping it doesn't turn into a problem going forward.
  • RHP Kyler Newby had another dominant season in A ball last year (2.69 ERA, 11.5 K/9 in 67 IP), and his line to start the season is 8.1 IP, 2 runs on 2 solo homers, 8 K, 1 BB.

The Bad:

  • RHP starter Matt Torra had an interesting season last year. He started in AA and was great, with an ERA of 2.85 and a K/BB of 4.17 in 13 starts. He was then promoted to AAA, where he had a more pedestrian 4.71 ERA with a 2.42 K/BB in 13 starts. Back in AA to start this season, his line looks identical to the AAA one from last year (4.71 ERA, 2.4 K/BB). He was also hurt by the long ball, surrendering 4 in only 21 innings.
  • The only reliever with a poor line is RHP Vincent Bongiovanni, with an ERA of 6 in 9 innings.

As if all these prospects weren't enough, baseball in Mobile just got better last night with the news that our top prospect, RHP Jarrod Parker was promoted from Visalia, where he destroyed A ball hitters in his first 4 starts. This will mean our top 4 prospects are playing in the AA club.

I'm not sure if this is tied to the move made earlier in the day, when we traded left handed AAA starter Evan MacLane to the Cardinals for a player to be named later. This is just speculation, but we may see one of the aforementioned AA pitchers fill his spot in AAA, and in turn, Parker step into the vacated AA spot.

I hope this, in addition to the game last night, has improved your outlook on this team :)

 

15 comments  |  4 recs

Minor league report - AAA

Hello!

Since I haven't seen anyone on here talk much about minor league baseball, and since I'm between projects at work (don't tell my boss), I thought I would write a little update on how our prospect have begun their season. I keep checking box scores for the four levels every morning anyway, so I might as well share.

Just to get it out of the way, 70 plate appearances and 20 innings are small samples, but let's face it, we need a distraction from what's going on at the big league club.

AAA Reno

As everyone knows, this is the first season for our AAA affiliate in Reno. They haven't exactly made a great start to the season, and they sit in second place in the PCL South with a 7-10 record. It's worth noting that out of Baseball America's top 10 DBack prospects, only Cesar Valdez, no. 7, and Billy Buckner, no. 8, are in AAA (I'm not sure I agree with Buckner, he of the 4.41 career ERA in the minors, being named a top 10 prospect). Most of the players on this team are career minor leaguers/ quad A types, and it's hard to see any of them, save Whitesell, help the big club anytime soon.  It's also worth noting that the PCL is a hitter's league, so the numbers should be viewed accordingly.


Batters:

The Good:

  • No surprise regarding the first name you'll read here. Josh Whitesell picked up where he left off last year, crushing AAA pitching to the tune of .351/.479/.561 (last year's line was .329/.427/.571). His BABIP is at a very high .429 but he sustained a BABIP of .416 all of last year, so I don't think he's in for much of a regression. I know Major League Equivalent stats are pretty much garbage, but www.minorleaguesplits.com says the above line translates to .263/.373/.404, which would make him our best hitter behind Reynolds and Lopez. Whitesell can hit for power and he has a great eye, but he has to play in AAA because of Tony Clark and his veteran leadership :( I could write a 1000 words about Whitesell, but I'll just add that the only guy to have a better season in the PCL last year, Nelson Cruz, is OPS-ing .911 at the big league level this year.
  • Another guy off to a hot start is 3B Agustin Murillo, who after two subpar seasons in AA didn't play in our system at all in 2008. His line after 15 games is .309/.391/.509 with more walks than K's and a normal BABIP of .340.
  • OF Alex Romero has also started well, hitting .292/.387/.477, with a great BB:K of 1.5 and a BABIP that's under league average.
  • Our two catchers, John Hester (.333/.395/.513 in 43 PA) and Luke Carlin (.321/.406/.464 in 32 PA) have also put up good numbers sharing time behind the dish. Hester, 25, has good power for a catcher (.190 ISO in his minor league career) and if he keeps up his current BB:K of 2, he might become a valuable player. Carlin played in 36 for the Padres last year, so I imagine he'll be up if the need arises for a catcher.
  • Recent callup Josh Wilson put up .260/.344/.420 in 61 PA, decent numbers for a shortstop.
  • Also of note is OF Brandon Watson, who is hitting .345, but he doesn't walk or hit for power, so his value is at the mercy of his BABIP.

The Bad:

  • OF Chris Roberson (.262/.304/.429), OF Trent Oeltjen (.255/.339/.345), and 2B Ruben Gotay (.240/.361/.300) have started slowly this year. Gotay put up better numbers than that in the majors last year and he OPS-ed .767 for the Mets in 2007, so he's certainly better than what we've seen so far.

Pitchers:

The Good:

  • Recent callup Esmerling Vasquez was dominant to start the season, with an ERA of 0.93 and a K:BB of 9:3 in 9.2 innings. He was our minor league pitcher of the year in 2007, but had a terrible year in '08 coming back from injury. He has major league stuff but he needs to work on his control.
  • Leo Rosales allowed only 1 earned run in 9 innings, but his peripherals don't look good, he only struck out 3, with 2 walks.
  • Jose Valderde clone (according to Bob Melvin) Jose Marte has been pretty good, with a 3.21 ERA and 13 Ks in 14 innings, albeit with 7 walks.
  • Seth Etherton is the only starter without an embarrassing line, as he is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.27. However, his K:BB ratio is a terrible 9:8 and he allowed 4 homers already.

The Really Really Bad:

  • Cesar Valdez, our minor league pitcher of the year in 2008, is struggling out of the gate. 3 starts, 12 innings, 7.50 ERA and 2 HR allowed. His K rate is also much lower than last season.
  • Fellow starters Tony Barnette (8.47 ERA in 4 starts) and Evan MacLane (6.75 ERA in 3 starts) are also struggling, but their FIP stats are significantly better than their ERA (4.85 and 4.43, also pretty bad).
  • In the bullpen, Abe Woody and Jon Coutlangus have an identical 7.94 ERA in 11.1 frames.
  • The most interesting case here is that of Josh Ellis, who has outstanding controllable stats (11K, 3BB, 0HR in 8.1 innings), but has been absolutely slaughtered by a .516 BABIP to the tune of an ERA just short of 12 (11.88)

Well, I hope you enjoyed this little AAA report. I'm probably going to do AA before you guys get out of bed. Let me know what you think.

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